EEE 25 Lecture 1

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EEE 25 Lecture 1

© All Rights Reserved

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Probability

Week 01 Lecture 01

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics

for Electrical and Electronics Engineers

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

Today

Errors in Measurement

Descriptive Statistics

Frequency Distribution

Stochastic Experiments

Events

Probabilities

Week 01 Lecture 01: Statistics & Data Analysis, Probability

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

Population

Collection of all possible data

Sample

Subset of the population

Characteristics of the sample will vary depending on the

values and number of samples taken

Example

Battery lifetime in hours

Individuals who received a BS in engineering in the

previous academic year

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

Significant Figures

All the digits that are certain plus one digit which

contains some uncertainty are said to be significant

figures.

Examples:

1.00

0.25

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

0.05

Rounding Off

Rule 1: If the remainder beyond the last digit to be

reported is less than 5, drop the last digit.

Rule 2: If the remainder beyond the last digit is

greater than 5, increase the last digit by 1.

Rule 3: If the remainder is exactly 5, round off to the

closest even number.

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

Kinds of Errors

Determinate

can be attributed to definite causes

methodic, operative or instrumental

Example: weighing with uncalibrated weights

Indeterminate

cannot be attributed to any known cause

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

Accuracy is how closely a result agrees with the

true result

The smaller the error, the greater the accuracy

experimental results.

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

accuracy-and-precision

Descriptive Statistics

Descriptive statistics

the analysis of data that helps describe, show or summarize

data in a meaningful way

a way of describing the characteristics of a large

collection of data by using a subset of it

Measure of central tendency

Measure of variability

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

The mean of a set of data is their arithmetic

average.

Two flavors:

Population mean,

Sample mean

1 n

x = xi

n i =1

x =sample mean

n=number of observations in the sample

xi =the i - th observation in the sample

Week 01 Lecture 01: Statistics & Data Analysis, Probability

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

The median of a sample is the value of the middle

item when the items are arranged in increasing

order.

%

x(n+1) 2 ,

if n is odd

'

x! = & 1

' !" xn 2 + x(n 2)+1 #$, if n is even

( 2

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

10

The mode is the most common value in the sample.

If all values occur equally frequently, then there is

no mode.

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

11

Example

20

20

80

40

10

60

60

100

80

70

10

10

70

40

90

50

100

70

60

10

10

60

10

50

70

80

50

80

50

60

70

20

90

60

70

60

10

80

60

60

20

20

30

40

70

50

70

100

10

60

Mean

Median

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

Mode

12

Example

10

20

50

60

80

10

20

50

60

80

10

20

60

70

80

10

30

60

70

80

10

40

60

70

80

10

40

60

70

90

10

40

60

70

90

10

50

60

70

100

20

50

60

70

100

20

50

60

70

100

Mean

52.40

Median

60

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

Mode

60

13

Example

Mean

Median

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

Mode

14

Example

VALUE

FREQUENCY

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2

7

4

4

1

7

9

7

4

7

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

15

Example

VALUE

FREQUENCY

VALUE FREQ

LAST POSITION

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2

7

4

4

1

7

9

7

4

7

52

2

14

12

16

5

42

63

56

36

70

316

2

9

13

17

18

25

34

41

45

52

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

16

Example

Mean

6.08

Median

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

Mode

17

Measures of Variability

The measure of center reveals only partial

information about a data set

Example: same mean/median, different spread

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

18

Measures of Variability

The range of a sample is the difference between the

highest and the lowest values of data

Sensitive to outliers

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

19

Measures of Variability

Population variance, 2

N

( x )

2 =

i=1

Sample variance, s2

n

( x x )

s2 =

i=1

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

n 1

20

An experiment is any activity or process whose

outcome is subject to uncertainty.

Examples

Selecting a card from a deck

Weighing a loaf of bread

Obtaining blood types from a group of people

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

21

The sample space of an experiment is the set of all

possible outcomes of that experiment.

Discrete: elements are countable

Continuous: elements are uncountable

contained in the sample space.

We can use elementary set theory to study events.

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

22

Set Definitions

a is an element of set A, a A

a is not an element of A, a A

B is a subset of A, BA

B is a proper subset of A, BA

is a null set

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

23

Set Definitions

A = {x|0 x 1}

uncountable and infinite

B = {0,1}

countable and finite

N = {0,1,2,...}

countably infinite

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

24

Venn Diagram

D is disjoint from the

other sets

BA

A C = shaded

region (intersection)

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

25

Set Operations

If A B and B A, then A = B (equal)

A B contains all elements in A that are not in B

(difference)

~A (or A) is the set of all elements not in A

(complement)

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

26

Set Operations

Commutative law

AB = B A

AB = B A

Distributive law

A ( B C ) = ( A B) ( A C )

A ( B C ) = ( A B) ( A C )

Associative law

A ( B C ) = ( A B) C

A ( B C ) = ( A B) C

Week 01 Lecture 01: Statistics & Data Analysis, Probability

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

27

DeMorgans Law

( A B) = A B

( A B) = A B

Duality Principle: If, in an identity, one replaces

by , by , S by , by S, and the sets by their

complements, the identity is preserved.

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

28

Events

Description

An event is certain to occur

An event that is impossible

Event A does not occur

Both events A and B occur

Either A or B or both occurs

If A occurs then B must also

occur

A and B are disjoint

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

S

~A

AB

AB

AB

AB=

29

Probability

Given an experiment and a sample space S, the

objective of probability is to assign to each event A

a number P(A), called the probability of the event

A, which will give a precise measure of the chance

that A will occur.

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

30

Axioms of Probability

AXIOM 1: For any event A , 1 P(A) 0 .

AXIOM 2: P(S) = 1.

AXIOM 3: If A1, A2, A3, is an infinite collection of

disjoint events, then

P ( A1 A2 A3 !) = P ( A1 ) + P ( A2 ) + P ( A3 ) +!

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

31

( )

P E = 1 P ( E )

S

E

x

y

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

32

P (E F ) = P (E) + P (F ) P (E F )

S

F

E

x

y

z

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

33

P ( E2 E3) P ( E3 E1)

+P ( E1 E2 E3)

S

E2

E1

a

d

j

g

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

c

f

E3

34

Example

A coin is tossed twice.

What is the sample space?

What is the probability that at least 1 head occurs?

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

35

Example

What is the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11

when a pair of fair dice is tossed?

What is the sample space?

Let event A = total is 7. What is P(A)?

Let event B = total is 11. What is P(B)?

What is P(A or B)?

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

36

Homework

A box contains three 9-V batteries and two 1.5-V

batteries. A second box contains three 1-k

resistors and seven 10-k resistors. The voltages

and resistances are exact.

A battery from the first box and a resistor from the

second box are picked at random. The two are

connected to form a working circuit.

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

37

Homework

What is the probability that the battery chosen is

9V?

What is the probability that the resistor chosen is

10k?

What is the probability that the current is equal to

1.5 mA?

What is the probability that the current through the

circuit is less than 1 mA?

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

38

Probability

Week 01 Lecture 01

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics

for Electrical and Electronics Engineers

EEE 25: Probability and Statistics for E&E Engineers

39

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