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Abstract
Factor that affect the risk of increased injury in the event of an automotive accident include reckless
driving, environmental factor and roadway condition. The purpose of this study is to develop an accident
prediction model for Federal Route 50 by using multiple linear regression analysis. The road accident
trend and blackspot ranking were established at Federal Route (FT50) Batu Pahat Ayer Hitam. It
revealed that the percent accident reduction by changing the measures of each variables are, one access
point per kilometer reduction can reduce accidents by 9.32 %, 5 kilometer per hour speed reduction can
reduce accidents by 27.2%, 100 vehicle per hour volume reduction can reduce accidents by 4.33 %
meanwhile an increment of one second in gap will reduce accident by 1.20%.
Keywords
Blackspot ranking, accident prediction model
1. Introduction
Road accidents are one of the major contributors of human deaths in Malaysia. In the year 2006, 341,252
accidents were recorded, resulting in an average 18 deaths from road accidents every single day. Federal
Route 50 from Batu Pahat to Ayer Hitam experienced 5,917 road accidents between the years 2000 and
2006, killing 188 people and injuring 1,330 people. The primary objective of the study is to identify
factors that contribute to the cause of accident and the development of an accident prediction model for
Federal Route 50.
121
Growth in urbanization and in the number of vehicle in many developing countries has led to the increase
in traffic accidents on road networks which were never designed for the volumes and types of traffic
which they are now required to carry. In addition, unplanned urban growth has led to incompatible land
uses, with high levels of pedestrians/vehicle conflicts. The drift from rural areas to urban centre often
result in large numbers of new urban resident unused to such high traffic levels. Many developing
countries continue to repeat the mistakes of the industrialized countries , many still permit linear
development with direct access from frontage properties along major roads even though this is know to
lead to safety problems. It is possible to identify hazardous sections of the road network so that
appropriate remedial measures can be undertaken to reduce the likelihood and severity of accidents at
those locations. This has proven to be one of the most cost-effective ways of improving road safety in
industrialized countries. Accident prediction models have been developed through statistical analysis for
this purpose. An accident model is generally an algorithm pitting a dependent variable against several
independent variables, each of which is assigned a constant. The dependent variable in an accident
prediction model is the number of accidents, while the independent variables may be quantitative
variables such as road cross-section dimensions, horizontal curvature and traffic volume, speed and of
qualitative variable such as type of terrain, road shoulder and median.
There is an extensive literature devoted to analysis of traffic accidents and crash modeling. The majority
of this literature references the studies that deal primarily with analysis of crash involvement and
prediction of crash. Since this research deal with analysis of injury severity and its accident factors, this
review attempts only to present the most relevant work in his area.
Logistic regression (a type of regression where the dependent is a categorical as opposed to a numerical
variable) has been the most popular technique in developing injury severity prediction models. Lui and
McGee (1998) used logistic regression to analyze the probability of fatal outcomes of accidents given that
the crash has occurred. In yet another study a logistic regression approach was used to examine a
contribution of individual variable to the injury severity (Al-Ghamdi, 2002). The study was limited to
560accident obtained from the police records in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. According to the logistic
regression results, out of nine independent variables used in this study, only two were found to be
statistically significant with respect to the injury severity: location and cause of accident. For example, the
odds of being in a fatal accident at a non-intersection location are 2.64 higher than those at an
intersection, and the odds of severe injury increases on accidents caused by over-speeding and entering
the wrong way traffic. Use of artificial neural network as the modeling approach in analysis of crashrelated injury severity has been relatively scarce. The only related study that was found in the literature
employed artificial neural networks to model the relationship between driver injury severity and crash
factors related to driver, vehicle, roadway, and environment characteristics (Abdelwahab and Abdel-Aty
2001).
Road traffic accident is a rare, random, multi factor event always preceded by a situation in which one or
more road user have failed to cope with their environment, resulting in a collision on the public highway
be recorded by police (Radin, 2005). Transportation is an essential part of modern existence, linking the
various activities in which people participate especially at home, work, school and go to shopping or
recreation. From Royal Malaysian Police (PDRM) data, every year accident in Malaysia constant increase
year by year and Johor is among highest after Wilayah Perseketuan (Figure 1).
122
800,000
709,034
Number of Accident
700,000
600,000
500,000
396,331
400,000
347,838
300,000
240,585
200,000
127,898
124,426
100,000
61,981
251,074
89,900
104,474
102,966
110,383
61,390
9,867
Wilayah Persekutuan
Terengganu
Selangor
Sarawak
Sabah
Pulau Pinang
Perlis
Perak
Pahang
Negeri Sembilan
Melaka
Kelantan
Kedah
Johor
State
1115
1000
Number of Accident ..
994
964
999
895
754
800
731
600
400
251
200
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Year
2.0 Methodology
The accident analysis process involves the identification of accident blackspot locations, establishment of
general patterns of accident, analysis of the factor involved, site studies, and development of an accident
prediction model using Multiple Linear Regression.
123
124
a traffic counter and classifier. The 85th percentile speeds were determined from spot speed measurement
using SPSS program.
Percentage of accidents at federal road FT 050 (km 1 to km 40) from year 2000 to 2007 show in Figure 3.
The highest percentage of accidents is year 2004 and 2007 with 15 %. The second highest is year 2003,
2005 and 2006 with 14 % and followed by year 2002 with 13 %. The lowest percentage of accident is
year 2000 with 4 %. This means the impact of upgrading the route from two-lane road to a four-lane road
can be increase the accident number especially during its construction stage from year 2002 to 2004. The
road was an upgrading of the existing road with cross of two lane two way to four lanes undivided
carriageway on February 15, 2002 and was completed on August 14, 2004.
2007
15%
2000
4%
2001
11%
2002
13%
2006
14%
2005
14%
2003
14%
2004
15%
125
800
754
700
641
665
636
N um ber of A ccident. .
600
498
500
484
462
400
437
300
276
200
170
86
100
69
0
00:01- 02:01- 04:01- 06:01- 08:01- 10:01- 12:01- 14:01- 16:01- 18:01- 20:01- 22:0102:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 24:00
Time
According Batu Pahat Distric Police data accident, many factor contributing to road accident along
federal road FT 050. Table 5 shows the faults data which cause occurred fatal along FT 050 from year
2003 to 2007. From Figure 5 shows the accident by type of faults along FT 050 from year 2003 to 2007.
The highest rank is driving to close with 2749 accident case and followed by accident at junction with
1784 accident case. While, the lowest rank is tired or wear and racing, where both of faults value is 15
case.
3200
N um ber o f A cciden t
2800
2759
2400
1784
2000
1600
982
1200
800
400
169
897
343
568
32
236
176
73
15
142
O u P ed
t o e st r
f c ia n
on
cr
t
o
M rol ( ss in
o r sp
e t ee g
O v h an d in
o g)
e
A c rta k ne la
i
c id n g n e
en ve
h
t
D r a t ju icl e
i
n
v
V i in ct i
si o g t o n
nt oc
o o lo s
e
b
C o sc ur
n t ed
ra
f lo
w
UT r tu r
R e af f i n
ve c li
r s e gh
ve t
T i hi c
re l e
d/ w
e
R a ar
c in
g
Ot
he
r
Type of Fault
By using this formula the accident will be classified into four main categories. For fatal it will be multiply
with 6.0, while serious injury multiply with 3.0, slight injury must multiply with 0.8 and damage only
multiply with 0.2. The Accident Point Weightage (APW) and accident ranking at federal road FT 050 can
be shown in Appendix A.
126
Km
5
10
2
9
20
24
8
4
6
21
Type of Road
Accident
Jumlah APW ln(APW)
1 2 3
4
9 4 50 119
182
129.80
4.87
8 5 37 105
155
113.60
4.73
4 2 30 210
246
96.00
4.56
5 3 43 100
151
93.40
4.54
8 0 26 102
136
89.20
4.49
6 3 28 85
122
84.40
4.44
6 1 32 96
135
83.80
4.43
2 2 26 172
202
73.20
4.29
3 2 33 104
142
71.20
4.27
2 3 23 142
170
67.80
4.22
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
127
Number of Accident
160
136
140
121
120
100
102
142
122
142
125
110
102
80
60
40
26
14
20
19
20
23
16
10
3 2
1 1
0
21
22
23
Kilometre
Serious Injury
Fatal
Slight Injury
Damage Only
Total
Independent Variable of the Accident Prediction Model used in the study is Access Point, Speed, Hourly
Traffic Volume and Gap obtained from traffic study.
3.8.1 Speed
Speed is very important for this analysis. It is because from speed, value of 85th Percentile speed can be
obtained. The speed data obtained from the previous study. Table 4.3 shown an average of 85th Percentile
speed from speed data analysis.
Table 2: Average of 85th Percentile
Km
th
85 Percentile
19
20
21
22
23
66.54
78.47
76.51
72.77
73
19
2.81
20
3.37
21
3.17
128
22
3.67
23
3.92
4.0 Conclusion
The research determine that number of accidents for study location (km 19, km 20, km 21, km 22, and km
23) at FT 050 always increase according accident data from year 2001 to 2007 have shown the total is
1074 accident with 30 fatalities, 36 serious injury, 204 slight injury and 804 damage only. Based on the
Accident Point Weightage (APW), at kilometre 5 is the highest with 129.8 weighting point. This was
followed by kilometre 10, kilometre 2, kilometre 9, kilometre 20, kilometre 24, kilometre 8, kilometre 4,
kilometre 6 and kilometre 2, which km 20 and km km 21 is the study location .
The highest number of damage only accident is at km 21 with 142 and the lowest number of damage only
accident is at km 19 and km 20 with equal value with 102 accident. While for the serious injury
categories, the highest is at km 21 with 3 accident. For serious injury at 19 km, 20 km and 23 km not
occurred. The highest number of fatal is km 20 and the lowest is km 22 and km 23 with 1 accident. Slight
injury always occurred for every study location, which at km 20 is the highest occurred accident with 26
and km 22 is the lowest number of accident with 22. The highest accident total is at km 21 with 170 and
the lowest at km 19 with 121 case.
4.1 Accident Prediction Model
Further study of the research was to develop predictive models relating traffic accidents with the road
environment and traffic flows. Multiple regression techniques were used to estimate the model
parameters. The regression equation that can be used to predict accident rates as developed from this
study takes the following form:
In (APW)0.5 = 0.0212( AP ) + 0.000704 (HTV 0.75 + GAP 1.25) + 0.0210 ( 85th PS)
Where the range of values applicable to this model are as follows:
Table 4: Range of values applicable to this model
129
Independent Variable
Range of Va lues
6-12
1597-3952 vph
Gap (second)
2.75-3.97
th
63.30-82.20 kph
The result of the analyses provide sufficient evidence to support the hypothesis that the existence of a
larger major junction density, an increase in traffic volume and vehicle speed in Federal Route 50 are the
contributors to traffic accidents. Reduction of vehicle speed, access point, traffic volume and gap are
likely to have an influential effect on the road traffic accidents.
The percent accident reduction by changing the measures of each parameters are, one access point per
kilometer reduction can reduce accident by 9.32%, 5 kilometer per hour reduction can reduce accident by
27.2%, and 100 vehicle per hour reduction can reduce accident by 4.33% meanwhile an increment of one
second in gap will reduce accident by 1.20%.
More importantly, the significant accident predictive model developed in this study is applicable in road
safety improvement and could serve as a basis for further research work of Federal Route in Malaysia
especially and developing countries generally.
5.0 Reference
Abdul Kareem (July 2003);Review Of Global Menace of Road Accidents with Special Reference to
Malaysia- A Social Perspective, Malaysia Journal of Medical Science.Vol10. No.2, (31-39).
Al-Masaeid, Hashem R, Suleiman, Ghassan (2004); Relationships between urban planning variables and
traffic crashes in Damascus. Road & Transort Research.
Berhanu, G.(2004); Model relating traffic safety with road environment and traffic flow on arterial roads
in Addis Ababa. Adis Ababa University, pp 697-704.
Cheol Oh, Jun-Seok Oh, Stephen G.Ritchie and Myungsoon Chang (2000); Real-Time Estimation of
freeway Accident likelihood. Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Irvine,
USA pp 12-15.
Hadayeghi, Shalaby and Persaud (2003); Macro- Level Accident Prediction Models for Evaluating The
Safety of Urban Transportation Systems. Annual Meeting of the Transportaion Research Board,
TRB, Washington D.C
Hadi, Mohammed A., Jacob Aruldhas, Lee-Fang Chow, and Joseph A. Wattleworth (1995); Estimating
Safety of Cross-Section Design for Various Highway Types Using Negative Binomial Regression,
Transportation Research Record, 1500: 169-177.
K.M.Lum, Hendry S.L. Fan, S.H.Lam and P.Olszewski (1998); Speed-Flow Modelling of Arterial Roads
in Singapore, Journal of Transportation Engineering./May/Jun 213-222.
New Strait Times Malaysia (February 6,2006), Monday; page 10
Radin Umar Radin Sohadi and C.J Baguely, The Identification, Prioritising and Analysis Of Accident
Blackspots In Malaysia, REAAA Journal/January 1994.
Radin Umar Radin Sohadi, Chai W.L., Hussain H, Law T.H (2001); Modelling of Traffic Accidents
Along Major Trunk Roads in Malysia, Journal IEM.vol. 62 No. 3 2001.
Transportation Research Laboratory, TRL 421 Report (March 2000); The Effects of Drivers Speed on
the Frequency of Road Accidents.
World Disaster Report (1998); International Faderation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
Transport and Research Laboratory, UK.
130
Appendix A
Ranking Accident Point Weighting Along a Route F050 (KM 1-40) Over a 4 Years Period
(2004-2007)
Km
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Fatal
3
4
1
2
9
3
3
6
5
8
2
3
1
5
4
4
4
5
5
8
2
131
Total
APW
In(APW)
Rank
169
246
229
202
182
142
136
135
151
155
42
71
76
68
32
53
47
90
121
136
170
65.60
96.00
67.80
73.20
129.80
71.20
67.00
83.80
93.40
113.60
36.80
45.40
38.60
53.80
34.20
50.60
38.40
67.20
61.60
89.20
67.80
4.18
4.56
4.22
4.29
4.87
4.27
4.20
4.43
4.54
4.73
3.61
3.82
3.65
3.99
3.53
3.92
3.65
4.21
4.12
4.49
4.22
16
3
11
8
1
9
13
7
4
2
27
22
25
20
29
21
26
12
17
5
10
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
1
1
6
1
2
1
4
7
7
4
2
2
1
2
2
1
0
2
0
1
0
3
0
1
0
0
4
2
4
3
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10
16
28
14
7
5
4
6
7
11
17
7
1
4
2
1
0
1
4
110
125
85
36
28
18
46
40
62
83
110
64
52
23
21
13
27
7
21
Appendix B
132
122
142
122
51
38
24
54
57
78
102
132
74
54
29
25
15
27
10
25
39.00
43.80
84.40
24.40
26.20
13.60
36.40
66.80
66.00
61.40
56.60
33.40
17.20
19.80
17.80
9.40
5.40
14.20
7.40
3.66
3.78
4.44
3.19
3.27
2.61
3.59
4.20
4.19
4.12
4.04
3.51
2.84
2.99
2.88
2.24
1.69
2.65
2.00
24
23
6
32
31
37
28
14
15
18
19
30
35
33
34
38
40
36
39
Section
Time
No
7.00 8.00
(km)
19
8.00 9.00
12.00 1.00
ln (APW)0.5
AP
2.0291
(per km)
9
19
2.0291
19
1.00 2.00
5.00 6.00
85 PS
256.3
(kph)
67.95
400.28
68.28
2.0291
448.07
67.44
19
2.0291
441.47
68.03
19
2.0291
492.02
63.3
6.00 7.00
19
2.0291
501.98
64.26
7.00 8.00
20
2.1213
329.77
82.2
8.00 9.00
20
2.1213
479.58
82.18
12.00 1.00
20
2.1213
418.78
79.99
1.00 2.00
10
20
2.1213
425.2
77.01
5.00 6.00
11
20
2.1213
319.42
75.79
6.00 7.00
12
20
2.1213
325.91
73.65
7.00 8.00
13
21
2.0534
12
297.02
80.91
8.00 9.00
14
21
2.0534
12
439.07
80.59
12.00 1.00
15
21
2.0534
12
410.96
75.4
1.00 2.00
16
21
2.0534
12
426.45
74.41
5.00 6.00
17
21
2.0534
12
448.44
73.54
6.00 7.00
18
21
2.0534
12
430.23
74.23
7.00 8.00
19
22
1.9141
305.59
71.99
8.00 9.00
20
22
1.9141
446.81
70.99
12.00 1.00
21
22
1.9141
423.1
73.91
1.00 2.00
22
22
1.9141
398.79
71.06
5.00 6.00
23
22
1.9141
416.53
75.62
6.00 7.00
24
22
1.9141
374.44
73.06
7.00 8.00
25
23
1.9441
327.42
72.32
8.00 9.00
26
23
1.9441
476.08
71.22
12.00 1.00
27
23
1.9441
455.08
73.95
1.00 2.00
28
23
1.9441
436.34
71.75
5.00 6.00
29
23
1.9441
444.78
75.52
6.00 7.00
30
23
1.9441
392.51
73.26
Appendix C
133
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.998737008
R Square
0.997475612
Adjusted R Square
0.960251583
Standard Error
0.106653138
Observations
Intercept
AP
0.75
HTV
+ GAP 1.25
85th PS
Regression
Residual
Total
df
3
27
30
Coefficients
0
0.021232017
0.000705917
0.021002698
SS
121.3548779
0.307122081
121.662
30
Standard Error
#N/A
0.009533646
0.000273406
0.00178282
ANOVA
MS
40.45162597
0.011374892
Appendix D
134
t Stat
#N/A
2.227061546
2.58193706
11.78060468
F
3556.220702
P-value
#N/A
0.034474931
0.015571332
3.78097E-12
Significance F
4.33145E-34
0.998737
R Square
0.997476
Adjusted R Square
0.960252
Standard Error
0.106653
Observations
30
R-square :
R square
0.5
R2= 0.997
Rating Poor
Perfect
T-Test :
df
3
27
30
Regression
Residual
Total
T=
ANOVA
MS
40.45163
0.011374892
SS
121.3549
0.307122
121.662
(From Microsoft Excel)
F
3556.220702
40.45163
= 59.6340 ; Critical value, t = 1.706
0.0113749
Explanatory
Variable
t-stat
AP
2.227061546
>1.706
Significance
HTV
2.58193706
>1.706
Significance
85th PS
11.78060468
>1.706
(From Microsoft Excel)
Significance
Residual Output
135
Significance F
4.33145E-34
Observation
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Predicted ln(APW)0.5
1.799147918
1.907716702
1.923810197
1.931542738
1.867884071
1.895077591
2.129068045
2.234401379
2.145485733
2.08742968
1.987134515
1.946770142
2.16378386
2.257338471
2.128491151
2.118633131
2.115883893
2.117521011
1.876329418
1.955016284
1.999606875
1.922588351
2.030883615
1.947404673
1.877441934
1.959276975
2.001787359
1.942356591
2.027496252
1.943130436
136
Residuals
0.22998983
0.121421046
0.105327551
0.09759501
0.161253677
0.134060157
-0.007794842
-0.113128176
-0.02421253
0.033843523
0.134138688
0.174503061
-0.110347716
-0.203902327
-0.075055007
-0.065196986
-0.062447749
-0.064084866
0.037723873
-0.040962993
-0.085553584
-0.00853506
-0.116830324
-0.033351382
0.066677404
-0.015157637
-0.057668022
0.001762746
-0.083376914
0.000988902