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First International Conference on Construction In Developing Countries (ICCIDCI)

Advancing and Integrating Construction Education, Research & Practice


August 4-5, 2008, Karachi,, Pakistan

Blackspot Study and Accident Prediction Model Using Multiple Liner


Regression
Fajaruddin Mustakim
Lecturer, Department of Building and Construction Engineering, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia
fajardin@uthm.edu.my
Ismail Yusof
Head of Department, Department of Geotechnical and Transportation Engineering, Universiti Tun
Hussein Onn Malaysia
Ismail Rahman
Deputy Dean, Faculty of Civil and Enviromental Engineering, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia
Abdul Aziz Abdul Samad
Dean, Faculty of Civil and Enviromental Engineering, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia
Nor Esnizah Binti Mohd Salleh
Undergraduated, Faculty of Civil and Enviromental Engineering, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia

Abstract
Factor that affect the risk of increased injury in the event of an automotive accident include reckless
driving, environmental factor and roadway condition. The purpose of this study is to develop an accident
prediction model for Federal Route 50 by using multiple linear regression analysis. The road accident
trend and blackspot ranking were established at Federal Route (FT50) Batu Pahat Ayer Hitam. It
revealed that the percent accident reduction by changing the measures of each variables are, one access
point per kilometer reduction can reduce accidents by 9.32 %, 5 kilometer per hour speed reduction can
reduce accidents by 27.2%, 100 vehicle per hour volume reduction can reduce accidents by 4.33 %
meanwhile an increment of one second in gap will reduce accident by 1.20%.

Keywords
Blackspot ranking, accident prediction model

1. Introduction
Road accidents are one of the major contributors of human deaths in Malaysia. In the year 2006, 341,252
accidents were recorded, resulting in an average 18 deaths from road accidents every single day. Federal
Route 50 from Batu Pahat to Ayer Hitam experienced 5,917 road accidents between the years 2000 and
2006, killing 188 people and injuring 1,330 people. The primary objective of the study is to identify
factors that contribute to the cause of accident and the development of an accident prediction model for
Federal Route 50.

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Growth in urbanization and in the number of vehicle in many developing countries has led to the increase
in traffic accidents on road networks which were never designed for the volumes and types of traffic
which they are now required to carry. In addition, unplanned urban growth has led to incompatible land
uses, with high levels of pedestrians/vehicle conflicts. The drift from rural areas to urban centre often
result in large numbers of new urban resident unused to such high traffic levels. Many developing
countries continue to repeat the mistakes of the industrialized countries , many still permit linear
development with direct access from frontage properties along major roads even though this is know to
lead to safety problems. It is possible to identify hazardous sections of the road network so that
appropriate remedial measures can be undertaken to reduce the likelihood and severity of accidents at
those locations. This has proven to be one of the most cost-effective ways of improving road safety in
industrialized countries. Accident prediction models have been developed through statistical analysis for
this purpose. An accident model is generally an algorithm pitting a dependent variable against several
independent variables, each of which is assigned a constant. The dependent variable in an accident
prediction model is the number of accidents, while the independent variables may be quantitative
variables such as road cross-section dimensions, horizontal curvature and traffic volume, speed and of
qualitative variable such as type of terrain, road shoulder and median.
There is an extensive literature devoted to analysis of traffic accidents and crash modeling. The majority
of this literature references the studies that deal primarily with analysis of crash involvement and
prediction of crash. Since this research deal with analysis of injury severity and its accident factors, this
review attempts only to present the most relevant work in his area.
Logistic regression (a type of regression where the dependent is a categorical as opposed to a numerical
variable) has been the most popular technique in developing injury severity prediction models. Lui and
McGee (1998) used logistic regression to analyze the probability of fatal outcomes of accidents given that
the crash has occurred. In yet another study a logistic regression approach was used to examine a
contribution of individual variable to the injury severity (Al-Ghamdi, 2002). The study was limited to
560accident obtained from the police records in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. According to the logistic
regression results, out of nine independent variables used in this study, only two were found to be
statistically significant with respect to the injury severity: location and cause of accident. For example, the
odds of being in a fatal accident at a non-intersection location are 2.64 higher than those at an
intersection, and the odds of severe injury increases on accidents caused by over-speeding and entering
the wrong way traffic. Use of artificial neural network as the modeling approach in analysis of crashrelated injury severity has been relatively scarce. The only related study that was found in the literature
employed artificial neural networks to model the relationship between driver injury severity and crash
factors related to driver, vehicle, roadway, and environment characteristics (Abdelwahab and Abdel-Aty
2001).
Road traffic accident is a rare, random, multi factor event always preceded by a situation in which one or
more road user have failed to cope with their environment, resulting in a collision on the public highway
be recorded by police (Radin, 2005). Transportation is an essential part of modern existence, linking the
various activities in which people participate especially at home, work, school and go to shopping or
recreation. From Royal Malaysian Police (PDRM) data, every year accident in Malaysia constant increase
year by year and Johor is among highest after Wilayah Perseketuan (Figure 1).

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800,000
709,034

Number of Accident

700,000
600,000
500,000
396,331
400,000
347,838
300,000

240,585

200,000

127,898

124,426
100,000
61,981

251,074

89,900

104,474

102,966

110,383
61,390

9,867

Wilayah Persekutuan

Terengganu

Selangor

Sarawak

Sabah

Pulau Pinang

Perlis

Perak

Pahang

Negeri Sembilan

Melaka

Kelantan

Kedah

Johor

State

Figure 1 : Number of Accident By State,(1997-2006)


Malaysian Police statistic of road accident in Johor, federal road FT 050 among those highest occurred
accident in the accident records. From Figure 2, 994 case of road accidents recorded in the year 2005, 999
case of road accidents recorded in the year 2006 and in year 2007 with 731 case.
Number of Accident at FT 050 (2000-2007)
1200

1115

1000
Number of Accident ..

994

964

999

895
754

800

731

600
400

251

200
0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Year

Figure 2 : Number of accident along FT 050 (2000-2007)


Source : PDRM (2007)

2.0 Methodology
The accident analysis process involves the identification of accident blackspot locations, establishment of
general patterns of accident, analysis of the factor involved, site studies, and development of an accident
prediction model using Multiple Linear Regression.

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2.1 Data Collection


Accident data were collected from Batu Pahat Traffic Police Station, Batu Pahat Public Work
Department, Bukit Aman Royal Malaysia Police, Road Transport Department, Parit Raja Health Clinic
Center, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia (UTHM) and Road Safety Research Center UPM Serdang.
The accident database was obtained from the POL27 and the crash records were collected from the year
2000 to 2007.
2.2 Analysis Of Accident Data
The purpose of preliminary analysis of the traffic accident data is to determine the broad of the accident
problem. At this stage the general patterns and trend of accident are established. Types of accident trend
and statistics for the FT 50 were:
a)
b)
c)
d)

Total number of accident at FT 050 for year 2000 to 2007.


Accident by hours of the day for year 2003 to 2007.
Accident by type of fault for year 2003 to 2007.
Total number of fatal by fault categories for year 2003 to 2007.

2.3 Identify Blackspot Location


Identification and prioritisation of accident blackspot location were carried out by using the following
methods:
(i) Ranking accident point weightage
(ii) Ranking of the top ten accident sections accident
2.4 Site Investigation
The site investigation is a very important element of any accident investigation. The site investigation
purpose to support the data from analysis, this is can give the best result in the study. For example the
number of junction might give impact to the traffic. The function of site investigation include :
a) To confirm accident causal factors as suspected from the analysis.
b) To correlate analysis findings and additional information with the site, route or area to gain a better
appreciation of the problems.
c) To identify any accident causal factor that were not apparent through the analysis of the data.
d) To observe traffic and road user behaviour.
2.5 Accident Prediction Model
The model consists of several independent or explanatory variables, encompassing elements from road
geometry to traffic condition. For this study, the variables which have considerable effect are 85th
percentile speed, volume study, gap (in second) and number of access points per kilometer. The data were
collected in-field. The study section used for collecting data was about 5 kilometers long, it involves KM
19, KM 20, KM 21, KM 22 and KM 23 of Federal Route 50. By traversing the entire length of the road to
observe the number of access points, the number of major access point per kilometer for every section is
obtained. Traffic volume and spot speed were obtained over 2-hour time periods of field survey at each
section, namely the morning (0700 - 0900 hrs), midday (1200 - 1400 hrs) and evening (1700 - 1900 hrs).
Speed measurements, gap study, and volume study were taken at every section using a Trax Mite which is

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a traffic counter and classifier. The 85th percentile speeds were determined from spot speed measurement
using SPSS program.

3.0 Result And Data Analysis


3.1

Total Road Accident

Percentage of accidents at federal road FT 050 (km 1 to km 40) from year 2000 to 2007 show in Figure 3.
The highest percentage of accidents is year 2004 and 2007 with 15 %. The second highest is year 2003,
2005 and 2006 with 14 % and followed by year 2002 with 13 %. The lowest percentage of accident is
year 2000 with 4 %. This means the impact of upgrading the route from two-lane road to a four-lane road
can be increase the accident number especially during its construction stage from year 2002 to 2004. The
road was an upgrading of the existing road with cross of two lane two way to four lanes undivided
carriageway on February 15, 2002 and was completed on August 14, 2004.

2007
15%

2000
4%

2001
11%
2002
13%

2006
14%

2005
14%

2003
14%
2004
15%

Figure 3: Analysis percentage number of accidents at FT 050 (2000-2007)


3.2 Accident Data By Hour Of The Day
Figure 4 shows the worst accident by hour of the day from year 2003 to 2007 along FT 050. The highest
number of accident occurred at 1601 to 1800 namely 4.01 pm to 6.00 pm, recorded at 754 accident case.
Second highest was at 1401 to 1600 namely 2.01 pm to 4.00 pm involving 665 accident case and the third
highest at 1201 to 1400 or 12.00 pm to 2.00 pm with 641 case. For the lowest recorded at 0401 to 0600 or
4.01 am to 6.00 am with 69 accident case.

125

Number of Accident by Hour of the Day

800

754

700

641

665
636

N um ber of A ccident. .

600
498

500

484
462

400

437

300
276
200

170
86

100

69

0
00:01- 02:01- 04:01- 06:01- 08:01- 10:01- 12:01- 14:01- 16:01- 18:01- 20:01- 22:0102:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 24:00

Time

Figure 4: Analysis accidents data by hour in the day at FT 050 (2003-2007)


3.3

Accident Data By Type Of Fault

According Batu Pahat Distric Police data accident, many factor contributing to road accident along
federal road FT 050. Table 5 shows the faults data which cause occurred fatal along FT 050 from year
2003 to 2007. From Figure 5 shows the accident by type of faults along FT 050 from year 2003 to 2007.
The highest rank is driving to close with 2749 accident case and followed by accident at junction with
1784 accident case. While, the lowest rank is tired or wear and racing, where both of faults value is 15
case.
3200

N um ber o f A cciden t

2800

2759

2400
1784

2000
1600
982

1200
800
400

169

897
343

568
32

236

176
73

15

142

O u P ed
t o e st r
f c ia n
on
cr
t
o
M rol ( ss in
o r sp
e t ee g
O v h an d in
o g)
e
A c rta k ne la
i
c id n g n e
en ve
h
t
D r a t ju icl e
i
n
v
V i in ct i
si o g t o n
nt oc
o o lo s
e
b
C o sc ur
n t ed
ra
f lo
w
UT r tu r
R e af f i n
ve c li
r s e gh
ve t
T i hi c
re l e
d/ w
e
R a ar
c in
g
Ot
he
r

Type of Fault

Figure 5: Accident data by type of fault (2003-2007)


3.4

Ranking Accident Point Weightage

By using this formula the accident will be classified into four main categories. For fatal it will be multiply
with 6.0, while serious injury multiply with 3.0, slight injury must multiply with 0.8 and damage only
multiply with 0.2. The Accident Point Weightage (APW) and accident ranking at federal road FT 050 can
be shown in Appendix A.

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3.5 Ranking Of The Top Ten Accident Section (Km)


Table 1 show the top ten accident ranking by weightage and study location among the top ten accident
ranking by weightage, kilometre 20 with 89.20 weighting point and kilometre 21 with 67.80 weighting
point. The analysis was based on data compile over three year starting from January 2004 to 2007.
Table 1: Analysis for Top ten accident ranking by weightage

Km
5
10
2
9
20
24
8
4
6
21

Type of Road
Accident
Jumlah APW ln(APW)
1 2 3
4
9 4 50 119
182
129.80
4.87
8 5 37 105
155
113.60
4.73
4 2 30 210
246
96.00
4.56
5 3 43 100
151
93.40
4.54
8 0 26 102
136
89.20
4.49
6 3 28 85
122
84.40
4.44
6 1 32 96
135
83.80
4.43
2 2 26 172
202
73.20
4.29
3 2 33 104
142
71.20
4.27
2 3 23 142
170
67.80
4.22

Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

1=Fatal, 2=Serious, 3=Slight, 4=Damage, APW=Accident Point Weightage


3.6 Analysis Accident Data At Study Location
The accident history data were collected from Traffic Police Station, Batu Pahat. The analysis accident
data by year 2000 to 2007, where federal road stretch km 1 to km 38.Km 19, km 20, km 21, km 22 and
km 23 were selected as the study location based on the blacksport site on Accident Blackspot Map from
Public Works Department of Batu Pahat (JKR).
3.7 Number of Accident at Study Location by Section (km)
From Figure 6, the highest number of damage only accident is at km 21 with 142 and the lowest number
of damage only accident is at km 19 and km 20 with equal value with 102 accidents. While for the serious
injury categories, the highest is at km 21 with 3 accidents. For serious injury at 19 km, 20 km and 23 km
not occurred. The highest number of fatal is km 20 and the lowest is km 22 and km 23 with 1 accident.
Slight injury always occurred for every study location, from Figure 4.6 show at km 20 is the highest
occurred accident with 26 and km 22 is the lowest number of accident with 22. The highest accident total
from the Figure 4.4 at km 21 with 170 and the lowest at km 19 with 121 case.

127

Number of Accident at Study Location by Section, km


180
170

Number of Accident

160
136

140

121

120
100

102

142

122

142

125
110

102

80
60
40

26
14

20

19

20

23

16

10

3 2

1 1

0
21

22

23

Kilometre
Serious Injury

Fatal

Slight Injury

Damage Only

Total

Figure 6 : Number of accident at study location from year 2004 to 2007


3.8

Independent Variable of the Accident Prediction Model

Independent Variable of the Accident Prediction Model used in the study is Access Point, Speed, Hourly
Traffic Volume and Gap obtained from traffic study.
3.8.1 Speed
Speed is very important for this analysis. It is because from speed, value of 85th Percentile speed can be
obtained. The speed data obtained from the previous study. Table 4.3 shown an average of 85th Percentile
speed from speed data analysis.
Table 2: Average of 85th Percentile
Km
th

85 Percentile

19

20

21

22

23

66.54

78.47

76.51

72.77

73

3.8.2 Traffic Volume Per Hour and Number of Access Point


For data traffic volume per hour (HTV), can be obtained from number of vehicle in speed data analysis.
While Access Point (per km) shown in (Appendix B).
3.8.3 Gap
A gap is normally defined as the amount of time, in second, between the end of one vehicle and the
beginning of the next. From the data, value of gap obtained as Table 3. The maximum average of gap for
vehicle is 3.92 this mean it is lack of adequate gap for the vehicles to make a turning at the site because
the gap needed for the right turning is 4 to 5 seconds.
Table 3: Average of gap
Km
Gap

19
2.81

20
3.37

21
3.17

128

22
3.67

23
3.92

3.9 The Accident Prediction Model


3.9.1 Multiple Linear Regression Method
From the data shown in Appendix B , a regression analysis is performed using Microsoft Excel and the
result of analysis are obtained as shown in Appendix C and Appendix D. Based on the results of the
analysis, the accident prediction model for Federal Route 50 takes the following equation:
In (APW)0.5 = 0.0212( AP ) + 0.0007 (HTV 0.75 + GAP 1.25) + 0.0210 ( 85th PS)
Where,
APW = accident point weightage
AP = number of access points per kilometer
HTV = hourly traffic volume
Gap = amount of time, between the end of one vehicle and the beginning of the next in second.
85th PS = 85th percentile speed
The model has an R-square of 0.9987, which means that 99.87 % of the variation in the number of
accident has been explained the regression line. The T- test also indicates that the model is significant and
can be used for the prediction of the number of accidents (refer to Appendix D). Decrement of vehicle
speed, access point, traffic volume and increment of gap are likely to have an influence effect of reduction
on the road traffic accidents.

4.0 Conclusion
The research determine that number of accidents for study location (km 19, km 20, km 21, km 22, and km
23) at FT 050 always increase according accident data from year 2001 to 2007 have shown the total is
1074 accident with 30 fatalities, 36 serious injury, 204 slight injury and 804 damage only. Based on the
Accident Point Weightage (APW), at kilometre 5 is the highest with 129.8 weighting point. This was
followed by kilometre 10, kilometre 2, kilometre 9, kilometre 20, kilometre 24, kilometre 8, kilometre 4,
kilometre 6 and kilometre 2, which km 20 and km km 21 is the study location .
The highest number of damage only accident is at km 21 with 142 and the lowest number of damage only
accident is at km 19 and km 20 with equal value with 102 accident. While for the serious injury
categories, the highest is at km 21 with 3 accident. For serious injury at 19 km, 20 km and 23 km not
occurred. The highest number of fatal is km 20 and the lowest is km 22 and km 23 with 1 accident. Slight
injury always occurred for every study location, which at km 20 is the highest occurred accident with 26
and km 22 is the lowest number of accident with 22. The highest accident total is at km 21 with 170 and
the lowest at km 19 with 121 case.
4.1 Accident Prediction Model
Further study of the research was to develop predictive models relating traffic accidents with the road
environment and traffic flows. Multiple regression techniques were used to estimate the model
parameters. The regression equation that can be used to predict accident rates as developed from this
study takes the following form:
In (APW)0.5 = 0.0212( AP ) + 0.000704 (HTV 0.75 + GAP 1.25) + 0.0210 ( 85th PS)
Where the range of values applicable to this model are as follows:
Table 4: Range of values applicable to this model
129

Independent Variable

Range of Va lues

Number of access points per kilometer (AP)

6-12

Hourly traffic volume (HTV)

1597-3952 vph

Gap (second)

2.75-3.97
th

85th percentile speed (85 PS)

63.30-82.20 kph

The result of the analyses provide sufficient evidence to support the hypothesis that the existence of a
larger major junction density, an increase in traffic volume and vehicle speed in Federal Route 50 are the
contributors to traffic accidents. Reduction of vehicle speed, access point, traffic volume and gap are
likely to have an influential effect on the road traffic accidents.
The percent accident reduction by changing the measures of each parameters are, one access point per
kilometer reduction can reduce accident by 9.32%, 5 kilometer per hour reduction can reduce accident by
27.2%, and 100 vehicle per hour reduction can reduce accident by 4.33% meanwhile an increment of one
second in gap will reduce accident by 1.20%.
More importantly, the significant accident predictive model developed in this study is applicable in road
safety improvement and could serve as a basis for further research work of Federal Route in Malaysia
especially and developing countries generally.

5.0 Reference
Abdul Kareem (July 2003);Review Of Global Menace of Road Accidents with Special Reference to
Malaysia- A Social Perspective, Malaysia Journal of Medical Science.Vol10. No.2, (31-39).
Al-Masaeid, Hashem R, Suleiman, Ghassan (2004); Relationships between urban planning variables and
traffic crashes in Damascus. Road & Transort Research.
Berhanu, G.(2004); Model relating traffic safety with road environment and traffic flow on arterial roads
in Addis Ababa. Adis Ababa University, pp 697-704.
Cheol Oh, Jun-Seok Oh, Stephen G.Ritchie and Myungsoon Chang (2000); Real-Time Estimation of
freeway Accident likelihood. Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Irvine,
USA pp 12-15.
Hadayeghi, Shalaby and Persaud (2003); Macro- Level Accident Prediction Models for Evaluating The
Safety of Urban Transportation Systems. Annual Meeting of the Transportaion Research Board,
TRB, Washington D.C
Hadi, Mohammed A., Jacob Aruldhas, Lee-Fang Chow, and Joseph A. Wattleworth (1995); Estimating
Safety of Cross-Section Design for Various Highway Types Using Negative Binomial Regression,
Transportation Research Record, 1500: 169-177.
K.M.Lum, Hendry S.L. Fan, S.H.Lam and P.Olszewski (1998); Speed-Flow Modelling of Arterial Roads
in Singapore, Journal of Transportation Engineering./May/Jun 213-222.
New Strait Times Malaysia (February 6,2006), Monday; page 10
Radin Umar Radin Sohadi and C.J Baguely, The Identification, Prioritising and Analysis Of Accident
Blackspots In Malaysia, REAAA Journal/January 1994.
Radin Umar Radin Sohadi, Chai W.L., Hussain H, Law T.H (2001); Modelling of Traffic Accidents
Along Major Trunk Roads in Malysia, Journal IEM.vol. 62 No. 3 2001.
Transportation Research Laboratory, TRL 421 Report (March 2000); The Effects of Drivers Speed on
the Frequency of Road Accidents.
World Disaster Report (1998); International Faderation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
Transport and Research Laboratory, UK.

130

Appendix A
Ranking Accident Point Weighting Along a Route F050 (KM 1-40) Over a 4 Years Period
(2004-2007)
Km
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21

Fatal
3
4
1
2
9
3
3
6
5
8
2
3
1
5
4
4
4
5
5
8
2

Type of Road Accident


Serious
Slight
Damage
Injury
Injury
Only
0
24
142
2
30
210
0
27
201
2
26
172
4
50
119
2
33
104
2
28
103
1
32
96
3
43
100
5
37
105
3
14
23
3
9
56
2
20
53
1
14
48
1
3
24
3
14
32
1
5
37
4
15
66
0
14
102
0
26
102
3
23
142

131

Total

APW

In(APW)

Rank

169
246
229
202
182
142
136
135
151
155
42
71
76
68
32
53
47
90
121
136
170

65.60
96.00
67.80
73.20
129.80
71.20
67.00
83.80
93.40
113.60
36.80
45.40
38.60
53.80
34.20
50.60
38.40
67.20
61.60
89.20
67.80

4.18
4.56
4.22
4.29
4.87
4.27
4.20
4.43
4.54
4.73
3.61
3.82
3.65
3.99
3.53
3.92
3.65
4.21
4.12
4.49
4.22

16
3
11
8
1
9
13
7
4
2
27
22
25
20
29
21
26
12
17
5
10

22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40

1
1
6
1
2
1
4
7
7
4
2
2
1
2
2
1
0
2
0

1
0
3
0
1
0
0
4
2
4
3
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

10
16
28
14
7
5
4
6
7
11
17
7
1
4
2
1
0
1
4

110
125
85
36
28
18
46
40
62
83
110
64
52
23
21
13
27
7
21

Appendix B

132

122
142
122
51
38
24
54
57
78
102
132
74
54
29
25
15
27
10
25

39.00
43.80
84.40
24.40
26.20
13.60
36.40
66.80
66.00
61.40
56.60
33.40
17.20
19.80
17.80
9.40
5.40
14.20
7.40

3.66
3.78
4.44
3.19
3.27
2.61
3.59
4.20
4.19
4.12
4.04
3.51
2.84
2.99
2.88
2.24
1.69
2.65
2.00

24
23
6
32
31
37
28
14
15
18
19
30
35
33
34
38
40
36
39

Section

Time

No

7.00 8.00

(km)
19

8.00 9.00

12.00 1.00

ln (APW)0.5

AP

2.0291

(per km)
9

19

2.0291

19

1.00 2.00

5.00 6.00

HTV 0.75 + GAP 1.25

85 PS

256.3

(kph)
67.95

400.28

68.28

2.0291

448.07

67.44

19

2.0291

441.47

68.03

19

2.0291

492.02

63.3

6.00 7.00

19

2.0291

501.98

64.26

7.00 8.00

20

2.1213

329.77

82.2

8.00 9.00

20

2.1213

479.58

82.18

12.00 1.00

20

2.1213

418.78

79.99

1.00 2.00

10

20

2.1213

425.2

77.01

5.00 6.00

11

20

2.1213

319.42

75.79

6.00 7.00

12

20

2.1213

325.91

73.65

7.00 8.00

13

21

2.0534

12

297.02

80.91

8.00 9.00

14

21

2.0534

12

439.07

80.59

12.00 1.00

15

21

2.0534

12

410.96

75.4

1.00 2.00

16

21

2.0534

12

426.45

74.41

5.00 6.00

17

21

2.0534

12

448.44

73.54

6.00 7.00

18

21

2.0534

12

430.23

74.23

7.00 8.00

19

22

1.9141

305.59

71.99

8.00 9.00

20

22

1.9141

446.81

70.99

12.00 1.00

21

22

1.9141

423.1

73.91

1.00 2.00

22

22

1.9141

398.79

71.06

5.00 6.00

23

22

1.9141

416.53

75.62

6.00 7.00

24

22

1.9141

374.44

73.06

7.00 8.00

25

23

1.9441

327.42

72.32

8.00 9.00

26

23

1.9441

476.08

71.22

12.00 1.00

27

23

1.9441

455.08

73.95

1.00 2.00

28

23

1.9441

436.34

71.75

5.00 6.00

29

23

1.9441

444.78

75.52

6.00 7.00

30

23

1.9441

392.51

73.26

Appendix C

133

RESULT S OF THE MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R

0.998737008

R Square

0.997475612

Adjusted R Square

0.960251583

Standard Error

0.106653138

Observations

Intercept
AP
0.75
HTV
+ GAP 1.25
85th PS

Regression
Residual
Total

df
3
27
30

Coefficients
0
0.021232017
0.000705917
0.021002698

SS
121.3548779
0.307122081
121.662

30

Standard Error
#N/A
0.009533646
0.000273406
0.00178282

ANOVA
MS
40.45162597
0.011374892

Appendix D

134

t Stat
#N/A
2.227061546
2.58193706
11.78060468

F
3556.220702

P-value
#N/A
0.034474931
0.015571332
3.78097E-12

Significance F
4.33145E-34

RESULT OF THE VALIDATION OF THE PREDICTION MODEL


Coefficient of Determinant
Regression Statistics
Multiple R

0.998737

R Square

0.997476

Adjusted R Square

0.960252

Standard Error

0.106653

Observations

30

R-square :
R square

0.5

R2= 0.997
Rating Poor

Perfect

T-Test :

df
3
27
30

Regression
Residual
Total

T=

ANOVA
MS
40.45163
0.011374892

SS
121.3549
0.307122
121.662
(From Microsoft Excel)

F
3556.220702

40.45163
= 59.6340 ; Critical value, t = 1.706
0.0113749

T>t : The model is significant and can be used for prediction


|t Stat|
>or <
Critical value Significance of coefficient

Explanatory
Variable

t-stat

AP

2.227061546

>1.706

Significance

HTV

2.58193706

>1.706

Significance

85th PS

11.78060468

>1.706
(From Microsoft Excel)

Significance

Residual Output

135

Significance F
4.33145E-34

Observation
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

Predicted ln(APW)0.5
1.799147918
1.907716702
1.923810197
1.931542738
1.867884071
1.895077591
2.129068045
2.234401379
2.145485733
2.08742968
1.987134515
1.946770142
2.16378386
2.257338471
2.128491151
2.118633131
2.115883893
2.117521011
1.876329418
1.955016284
1.999606875
1.922588351
2.030883615
1.947404673
1.877441934
1.959276975
2.001787359
1.942356591
2.027496252
1.943130436

136

Residuals
0.22998983
0.121421046
0.105327551
0.09759501
0.161253677
0.134060157
-0.007794842
-0.113128176
-0.02421253
0.033843523
0.134138688
0.174503061
-0.110347716
-0.203902327
-0.075055007
-0.065196986
-0.062447749
-0.064084866
0.037723873
-0.040962993
-0.085553584
-0.00853506
-0.116830324
-0.033351382
0.066677404
-0.015157637
-0.057668022
0.001762746
-0.083376914
0.000988902

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