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Saudi Arabia

by

A. M. Arafah1,

G. H. Siddiqi2

and

A. Dakheelallah3

ABSTRACT

Extreme value analysis of wind data in the Kingdom of

Saudi Arabia is described.

Probabilistic models of wind

behavior at twenty stations are generated which yield the

basic design wind speeds for a given recurrence interval

in fastest mile units. The models are verified by the Chisquare and Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit tests at 5

percent significance level. Basic design wind speeds are

calculated at each station and an isotach map of design

speeds for a 50 year mean reccurrence interval is

presented. The information obtained allows evaluation of

design wind loads by the ANSI A58.1 procedure.

___________________

1Asistant

Professor, Department of

Engineering, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Civil

Engineering,

College

of

2Associate

Professor, Department of

Engineering, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Civil

Engineering,

College

of

3Postgraduate

Civil

Engineering,

College of

Student, Department

Engineering, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

of

INTRODUCTION

Wind loads, among the other design loads, are crucial

for the design of structures such as tall buildings,

towers, radar and communication antennas.

This paper

considers the reliability and homogeneity aspects of the

wind data and studies the distribution of extreme annual

wind speeds over the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to obtain a

rational basis for the evaluation of wind induced loads

according to American National Standards Institute's Code

for design loads, ANSI A58.1-19821.

RELIABILITY AND HOMOGENEITY OF DATA

In order for the wind speed data to provide useful

information it must be reliable and form a homogeneous

set.

Measured

data

are

considered

reliable

if

the

recording instruments are adequately calibrated and are

not exposed to local effects due to proximity of

obstructions.

However, if at any time in future the

calibration is found to be inadequate, it is possible to

evaluate the corrections and adjust the data.

Measured data form a homogeneous set when they are

obtained under identical conditions of averaging time,

height above ground and roughness of the surrounding

terrain.

Averaging Time

The data averaged over short intervals, like highest

gust, 5 second average etc., in certain cases, can be

affected by stronger than usual local turbulence, which

results in distorted picture of the mean winds. Averaging

over longer periods like 5 or 10 minutes is, therefore,

desirable.

Height of 10 m above gorund is considered to be the

standard instrument height.

Wind data measured at any

other height are adjusted to the standard height by power

law2 .

The values of exponent in the power law for

different

"exposures"

are

available

in

literature2.

Specifically

for

meteorological

stations,

which

are

invariably located in open country, the exponent is oneseventh.

Roughness of Surrounding Terrain

The measured data are affected by the roughness of

the surrounding terrain. In case the roughness around an

anemometer changes significantly during the period of

record under consideration, it is possible to adjust the

measured record to a common terrain roughness by using

similarity model9.

DESIGN WIND FORCES

Basic Design Wind Speed

Basic design wind (BDW) speed is defined as the

maximum expected annual wind speed at the standard height

of 10 meters above ground in open country over a chosen

recurrence interval. This speed is established by extreme

value analysis of the instrumental data of maximum annual

wind collected from meteorological stations over a

geographical region.

American National Standards Institute's code for

design loads, ANSI A58.1-19821, employs fastest mile wind

(FMW) speed as the BDW speed.

FMW speed is the maximum

annual wind speed at which a one mile long column of wind

passes by an anemometer.

Isotach Map

An individual extreme value model for a station

predicts the BDW speeds at various recurrence intervals at

the station. The speeds at a network of stations form the

three dimensional input data to a contouring software

which plots isotachs (lines of equal wind speed) over the

geographic region. BDW speed at a chosen location can be

interpolated from this map.

Wind Induced Forces

Most codes translate the BDW speed to an equivalent

static wind load intensity which varies over the height of

a given structure.

This procedure accounts for type of

"terrain exposure" facing the structure, shape and form of

the structure, and its "importance" and other related

factors.

DATA PROCESSING

The data comprising of the largest annual wind speeds

available

with

the

Meteorological

and

Environmental

Protection Agency (MEPA) include records varying over

periods of three to thirty three years measured at twenty

eight stations well distributed over the Kingdom. Twenty

of these stations have records over a continuous duration

of fifteen or more years which is desirable for the

probabilistic analysis involved here.

These stations

along with the anemometer heights and duration of their

record are listed in Table 1 and considered in this study.

It is presumed that the anemometers at all the

weather stations in the Kingdom are situated in open

country environments throughout their period of commission

and

that

they

are

well

maintained

and

adequately

calibrated.

However, if at any time in future, it is

of instrument or the

Table 1.

in the Kingdom

-------------------------------------------------------Station

Station

Anemometer

Years of

No.

Name

Height (m) Continuous Records

-------------------------------------------------------1

Badanah

6

19

2

Bisha

6

20

3

Dhahram

10

26

4

Gassim

7

23

5

Gizan

8

22

6

Hail

8

26

7

Jeddah

10

19

8

Jouf

7

19

9

Kamis Mushit

9

23

10

Madina

10

26

11

Najran

8

15

12

Hafer-Albatian

8

19

13

Riyadh

10

26

14

Rafah

12

18

15

Sulayel

10

20

16

Tabouk

9

26

17

Taif

8

26

18

Turaif

8

17

19

Wajeh

10

26

20

Yanbu

10

23

21

AL-Ehsa

10

4

22

Abha

10

8

23

Baha

10

6

24

Gurayat

10

5

25

Jeddah (KAIA)

10

7

26

Mekkah

10

9

27

Riyadh(KKIA)

10

5

28

Sharurah

10

5

------------------------------------------------------

evaluated and the data adjusted accordingly.

can

be

are averaged over ten-minute duration.

The ten-minute

speed in knots is converted to ten-minute speed in miles

per hour. The averaging time for conversion of this speed

to FMW speed is obtained by an iterative procedure, and is

used to derive the desired fastest mile2. This speed, in

case of non-standard instrumental heights, is then reduced

to the standard height by power law.

EXTREME VALUE ANALYSIS

Extreme Value Distributions

The theory of extreme values has been successfully

used in civil engineering applications.

Floods, winds,

and floor loadings are all variables whose largest value

in a sequence may be critical to a civil engineering

system3.

In case of well behaved climates (i.e. ones in

which infrequent strong winds are not expected to occur)

it is reasonable to assume that each of the data in a

series of the largest annual wind speeds contributes to

the probabilistic behavior of the extreme winds.

The design wind speed can be defined in probabilistic

terms, where the largest wind speed in a year is

considered as a random variable with its cumulative

density

function

characterizing

its

probabilistic

behavior.

A commonly used distribution in extreme value

analysis is the double exponential distribution in which

an annual wind speed record, Xi, is considered to be a

random variable in the i-th year. For n successive years,

variables Xi are assumed to be mutually independent and to

have identical distributions.

Supposing that random

that the upper tail of their distribution falls in an

exponential manner then variable V, the largest of n

independent variables Xi, has Type I

(Gumbel) extreme

distribution, FV () , as follows,

] ) !,

FV () = exp [ - exp ( -

(1)

estimated from the observed data at each station. The

distribution function FV() is the probability of not

exceeding the wind speed .

The Type II (Frechet) extreme-value distribution also

arises as the limiting distribution of the largest value

of

many

independent

identically

distributed

random

variables. In this case each of the underlying variables

has a distribution which, on the left, is limited to zero.

The Type II distribution function, FV () , is,

FV () =

where

the

exp

parameters

and

)] !

(2)

observed data at each station. The parameter, , is known

as the tail length

are

parameter3.

Lieblein13,

the

values

of

cumulative

density

function,

speeds, can be estimated as follows,

FV() =

(3)

of the event, , in the ascending order of the magnitudes.

The

inverse

function

of

FV()

is

known

as

the

(Gumbel) extreme distribution the PPF is,

(F) = u + y(F)

which

is

linear

relation

(4)

between

(F)

and

the

y(F) = - ln(- ln F)

(5)

The Type II distribution with small values of tail

length parameter results in higher estimates of the

extreme wind speeds than the Type I distribution. It can

be shown that for values of parameter equal to 15 or more

the two distributions, Type I and II , are almost

identical4.

It can also be shown that if V has Type II

distribution then Z = ln V has the Type I distribution

with parameters u = ln and = ( 1/ ). This relationship

affords use of Type I probability paper for Type II

distribution also3.

Errors in Prediction of Wind Speeds

Errors

prediction.

quality of

errors.

Besides the errors associated with the

the data, there are sampling and modeling

size of samples from which the distribution parameters are

estimated. These errors, in theory, vanish as the size of

the sample increases indefinitely9. A sample size of 15 or

more, at a station, employed in this study is adequate in

this regard.

the probabilistic model.

Chi-square and K-S Test are

performed to choose the best fitting model.

Probabilistic Wind Models in Use

One major question that arises in the wind speed

extreme value analysis is the type of probability

distribution best suited for modeling the behaviour of the

extreme winds. Thom5 studied the annual extreme wind data

for 141 open country stations in the United States.

The

Type II distribution was chosen to fit the annual extreme

wind series giving isotach maps for 2, 50 and 100-year

mean recurrence intervals.

Thom6

winds in the United States for 138 stations. New maps were

drawn for 2-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year and 100-year

mean recurrence intervals. In his study, Thom used the

Type

II

(Frechet)

distribution.

He

indicated

that

examination of extensive non-extreme wind data indicated

that such data follow a log-normal distribution quite

closely, which reinforces the choice of the Type II

distribution.

Simiu7 presented a study in which a 37 year-series of

five- minute largest yearly speeds measured at stations

with

well-behaved

climates

were

subjected

to

the

probability plot correlation coefficient test to determine

the tail length parameter of the best fitting distribution

of the largest values.

Of these series, 72% were best

modeled by Type I distribution or equivalently by the Type

II distribution with =13; 11% by the Type II distribution

with 7<<13; and 17% by the Type II distributions with

2<<7. Simiu8 obtained the same percentages from the

analysis of 37 data sets generated by Monte Carlo

simulation from a population with a Type I distribution

which indicates that in well-behaved climates extreme wind

distributions.

Simiu4 showed that the Type I distribution of the

largest values is an adequate representation of extreme

wind behaviour in most regions not subjected to hurricaneforce winds. Simiu9 indicated that for hurricane-prone

regions the Type II distribution with a small value of the

tail length parameter may give better estimation of

extreme wind speeds.

The ANSI #A58.1-821 wind load provision is based on a

wind speed contour map developed by Simiu10. The wind

speeds in the map were established from the data collected

at 129 meteorological stations in the contiguous United

States.

The Type I (Gumbel) distribution is used in the

analysis. Simiu used data only for locations for which a

minimum of 10 years of continuous records were available11.

The provisions of National Building Code of Canada12

are also based upon the assumption that extreme wind speed

is best modeled by the Type I distribution.

The determination of appropriate

involves the following steps,

distribution

1)

station are first

anemometer height,

averaging time,

corrected for the standard

terrain exposure, and the

2)

ascending order. The corresponding values of the

CDF are calculated from Eq.3 ,

type

3)

Eq. 5,

4)

values of and the corresponding values of y, to

estimate values of parametrs u and in Eq. 4. such

an analysis for Madian is shown in Fig. 1 as a

sample,

5)

level is performed for model verification,

6)

V,

7)

modified extreme Type I probability paper

and on

2

the minimum value of , the more appropriate

model for the wind speed data is selected, and

8)

= eu and = (1/) are also calculated.

RESULTS OF EXTREME VALUE ANALYSIS

The extreme value analysis is performed on the wind

speed data of the 20 stations which have fifteen or more

years of continuous record. The extreme distribution models

obtained are presented in Table 2. As seen in the table, at

fifteen stations wind speed data are best modeled by the

Type I distribution and the remaining five stations they

follow the Type II distribution.

As a specific example of analysis, Fig. 1. presents the

fastest mile annual extreme wind speed data for Madina

Station ploted on the Extreme Type I propability paper.

The appropraite model is found to be,

V = 45.34 + 9.75 y

Table 2

Mile per Hour at 20 Stations in the Kingdom

of Saudi Arabia

---------------------------------------------Station

Type

u ()

()

(1)

(2)

(2)

---------------------------------------------Badana

I

59.54

11.37

Bisha

I

51.16

8.73

Dhahran

I

45.95

4.90

Gassim

I

63.19

11.59

Gizan

I

53.48

11.59

Hail

II

53.52

7.99

Jeddah

I

48.59

6.44

Jouf

I

56.88

7.09

Khamis-Mushiat

I

42.05

7.58

Madina

I

45.34

9.87

Najran

II

47.94

8.03

Hafer-Albatin

I

57.46

6.66

Riyadh

II

51.98

7.57

Rafah

I

55.26

7.27

Sulayel

II

51.22

6.55

Tabuk

II

54.54

8.05

Taif

I

51.36

8.68

Turaif

I

56.53

8.19

Wajh

I

47.17

8.21

Yanbu

I

46.58

6.68

---------------------------------------------(1)

(2)

In case of the Type II distribution, the values

listed belong to the parameters within the

parentheses in the column heading.

which means,

FV() = exp [ - exp ( - ( ] ) ) !

On the other hand, in Riyadh, the

extreme wind speeds were found to

extreme Type II given by,

Fv() = exp

be best modeled by

)] !

MODEL VERIFICATION

The

models obtained are checked by the Chi-square and

Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) goodness-of-fit tests at 5 percent

significance level. The calculated values of the statistic

D1 for the Chi-Square and D2 for Kolmogrov-Smirnov

goodness-of-fit tests are listed in Table 3 along with the

corresponding critical values, D1c and D2c , at 5 percent

significance

level.

The

results

indicate

that

the

calculated values of D1 are below the critical values at

sixteen stations. At the remaining four stations, Dhahran,

Jouf, Hafer Al-batin and Yanbu, they however, exceed the

critical limits. Such a result, when several events are

clustered in one wind speed interval, is expected in Chisquare analysis. On the other hand, the calculated values

of statistic D2 are less than the critical values at all

the stations which indicates that the models are acceptable

at 95 percent confidence level.

Table 3

and D2 at 5 percent Significance Level.

------------------------------------------------------------Chi-Square Test

Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test

---------------------------------------------Station

D1

D1c

D2

D2c

------------------------------------------------------------Badana

2.087

11.07

0.0835

0.300

Bisha

1.493

11.07

0.0791

0.290

Dhahran

19.110

11.07

0.1541

0.256

Gassim

4.163

11.07

0.0748

0.272

Gizan

5.247

11.07

0.1414

0.278

Hail

5.903

11.07

0.1177

0.256

Jeddah

3.169

11.07

0.1569

0.300

Jouf

16.558

11.07

0.1368

0.300

Khamis-Mushiat

9.310

11.07

0.0929

0.272

Madina

3.661

11.07

0.1529

0.256

Najran

7.949

11.07

0.1625

0.340

Hafer-Albatin

22.741

11.07

0.1346

0.300

Riyadh

10.215

11.07

0.2198

0.256

Rafah

9.255

11.07

0.1463

0.310

Sulayel

7.234

11.07

0.1074

0.290

Tabuk

10.376

11.07

0.1054

0.256

Taif

5.345

11.07

0.1122

0.256

Turaif

4.313

11.07

0.1136

0.320

Wajh

4.547

11.07

0.1377

0.256

Yanbu

17.608

11.07

0.1228

0.272

-------------------------------------------------------------

At any station, the extreme wind speed at a particular

annual probability of exceedance, Pa, can be calculated

using the corresponding wind speed model. The mean

recurrence interval or return period, N, is defined as

N = !

(6)

specific

wind

with

return

period

of

years,

the

design wind is exceeded at least once during the lifetime

of the structure, is given by

Pr = 1 - [ 1 - Pa ]n = 1 - [ 1- !] !

(7)

lifetime of the structure,

there

is

always a risk of

63% that this speed is exceeded at least once during the

lifetime of the structure.

The

mean

specified

recurrence

accepted

interval

risk

or

the

percentage

return

and

period

design

for

service

N = !

(8)

corresponding to a 50-year mean recurrence interval should

be used in designing all permanent structures.

However,

life

and

property

in

the

case

of

failure,

are

to

be

structures having no human occupants or where there is

negligible risk to human life,

Based on a given set of observed annual wind speeds, the

principal output from this procedure is the estimated wind

speeds, VN, for various mean recurrence intervals. Wind

speeds at 25, 50, 100, and 475 years return period are

listed in Table 4. The return period of 475 is calculated

using 50 year design lifetime of the structure and 10

percent accepted risk.

PLOTTING OF ISOTACHS

Isotachs for given recurrence intervals are plotted over

the geographic map of the Arabian peninsula from the

estimated extreme winds of twenty stations. A contouring

software is employed to plot the isotachs. The software

first generates information on a regularly spaced grid

from the irregular grid information supplied to it and

then develops a best fitting surface over the grid. The

fifty year return period wind speed contour map is plotted

in Fig.2.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, appropriate extreme wind distribution

models for the largest yearly fastest-mile wind speed at

20 weather stations in the Kingdom are developed. The

analysis of the data revealed that the probabilistic

behavior of the series of the largest annual winds at

fifteen

of the twenty stations can be described by the

Type I extreme distribution while at the remaining

stations by the Type II distribution. An isotach map for

50-year recurrence intervals is developed

Table 4.

Weather Stations

Intervals.

for

Different

Mean

Recurrence

Station

-----------------------------------25

50

100

475

----------------------------------------------------Badana

95.9

103.9

111.8

129.6

Bisha

79.1

85.2

91.3

104.9

Dhahran

61.6

65.1

68.5

76.1

Gassim

99.3

107.2

115.1

132.7

Gizan

90.6

98.6

106.8

124.9

Hail

79.8

87.2

95.2

115.8

Jeddah

69.2

73.7

78.2

88.3

Jouf

79.6

84.5

89.5

100.5

Khamis-Mushiat

66.3

71.6

76.9

88.4

Madiah

76.9

83.83

90.7

106.1

Najran

71.4

77.9

85.0

112.0

Hafer-Albatin

78.8

83.4

88.1

98.5

Riyadh

79.3

87.0

95.4

117.3

Rafah

78.5

83.6

88.7

100.0

Sulayel

83.4

92.9

103.3

131.1

Tabuk

81.1

88.5

96.6

117.2

Taif

79.1

85.2

91.3

104.9

Turaif

82.7

88.8

94.2

107.0

Wajh

73.9

79.7

85.4

98.3

Yanbu

67.9

72.6

77.3

87.7

------------------------------------------------------

Fig. 1

Isotach, in mile per hour, annual fastestmile, 33 feet above ground for exposure C,

with 50-year mean recurrence interval.

The maximum basic design wind speed of 107.2 mph, for 50year mean recurrence interval, is obtained at Gassim

Station, while the minimum of 65.1 mph is obtained at

Dhahran.

The ANSI-prescribed minimum of 70 mph is

exceeded at all stations excepting Dhahran.

REFERENCES

1- American National Standard Building Code Requirements

for Minimum Design Loads in Buildings and Other

Structures,

A58.1,

American

Institute, New York, NY, 1982.

National

Standards

Report by the Committee on Wind Effects of the

Committee on Dynamic Effects of the Structral Division,

American Society of Civil Engineers, New York, N.Y,

1987.

3- Benjamin, J. R., and Cornell, C.A., Probability,

Statistics, and Decision for Civil Engineers, McGrawHill Book Co. Inc., New York, N.Y, 1970.

4-

Simiu,

E.

and

Filliben,

J.J.,

"Probability

Distributions of Extreme Wind Speeds", Journal of the

Structural

Division,

ASCE,

Vol.

102,

No.

ST9,

September 1976, pp. 1861-1877.

5-

United States", Journal of the Structural Division,

ASCE, Vol. 86, No. ST4, April, 1960, pp. 11-24.

6-

the

United

States",

Journal

of

the

Structural

Division, ASCE, Vol. 94, No. ST7, July 1968, pp. 17871801.

of Extreme Winds," Technical Note No. 868, National

Bureau of Standards, Washington, D.C., 1975.

8- Simiu, E., Bietry, J. and Filliben, J.J., " Sampling

Errors in the Estimation of Extreme Winds," Journal of

the Structural Division, ASCE, Vol. 104, No. ST3,

March, 1978, pp. 491-501.

9-

Simiu,

E.,

and

Scanlan,

R.,

Structures,

Second

Edition,

Publication, New York, 1986.

Wind

Effects

on

Wiley-Interscience

Wind Speeds at 129 Stations in the Contiguous United

States," NBS Building Science Series 118, U.S. Dept.

of Commerce, National Bureau of Standards, Mar. 1979.

11- Mehta, K.C., "Wind Load Provision ANSI #A58.1-1982,"

ASCE Annual Convention and Structural Congress, New

Orleans, La., October 1982, pp.769-784.

12- Canadian Structural Design Manual, Supplement No.4 to

the National Building Code of Canada, National

Research Council of Canada, 1970.

13- Lieblein, J., "A New Method of Analyzing Extreme-value

Data", National Bureau of Standards Report No. 2190,

Washington, D.C., 1953.

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