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Q IWA Publishing 2009 Water Science & TechnologyWST | 59.

3 | 2009

531

Modeling water and nutrients fluxes in the Buyuk


Menderes drainage basin, Turkey
O. F. Durdu and V. Cvetkovic

ABSTRACT
Buyuk Menderes catchment, located in the southwestern part of Turkey, is one of the most
populated river basins in Turkey with 2.5 millions inhabitants. Due to increasing activities
in agriculture and industrial sectors, water resources management in the basin is one of the
biggest matters for the future. During the past decade, it has been observed a basinwide
shift to larger monocultural, intensively operated farm units. Therefore, there is land use
conversion from native lands to agriculture. The threat of nutrients pollution, nitrogen and
phosphorus, has become a preoccupation since many lands and rivers undergo a eutrophication
process. The discharge of nutrients from Buyuk Menderes basin to the Aegean Sea through
Buyuk Menderes river also needs to be reduced in order to bring the eutrophication problems

. F. Durdu
O
Water Resources Research Center,
Adnan Menderes University,
Aydin 09100,
Turkey
E-mail: odurdu@adu.edu.tr
V. Cvetkovic
Department of Land and Water Resources
Engineering,
Royal Institute of Technology,
Brinellvagen 32,
Stockholm SE-100 44,
Sweden
E-mail: vdc@kth.se

under lasting control. In this paper, the PolFlow model embedded in PCraster is applied to
the catchment for quantifying water and substances fluxes for the five-year period, 19992004.
The implementation of the model in the catchment allows describing the water balance and
thus nutrient transport on the landscape surface but also through the soil and aquifers layers.
Modeling process is complicated by the transfer of nutrients from diffuse and point-source
emissions, managed by retention and periodic release from storages within the catchment.
Modeling diffuse and point-source nutrient emissions contribution to river loads can be
improved by better knowledge about spatial and temporal distribution of this retention and
release in the basin.
Key words

| basin scale modeling, GIS, nutrient loads, water discharge

INTRODUCTION
Excess nutrient loads through drainage basins lead to

outfalls, or emanating from any other land-based sources

eutropication of both coastal and marine waters of the

within their territories. Over the past three decades, the

Aegean Sea region. The EU Water Framework Directive

Aegean Sea has experienced significant water quality

(WFD), the legislative framework for water management

problems due to eutrophication caused by extensive flows

in Europe, sets clear objectives that a good water quality

of nutrients from point and non-point sources. Due to high

status must be achieved by 2015 and that sustainable water

level of farm practices in Western Turkey, nutrient loads

use is ensured throughout Europe. Convention for the

into Aegean Sea from agricultural lands seem a major

Protection of the Mediterranean Sea against Pollution

challenge for the future. The Nutrient Reduction Action

(1976) and protocols (1980, 1982) recommends that all

Plan for Turkey prepared with Global Environment Facility

joint parties should take appropriate measures to prevent,

(GEF) suggests environmentally friendly farming practices,

abate and combat pollution of the Mediterranean Sea area

such as crop rotation, integrated pest management, early

caused by discharges from rivers, coastal establishments or

warning system and improved livestock management,

doi: 10.2166/wst.2009.013

532

O. F. Durdu and V. Cvetkovic | Modeling water and nutrients fluxes

Water Science & TechnologyWST | 59.3 | 2009

a good management of manure storage areas, optimum

inputs from the catchment. Therefore, the improvement of

application of organic and inorganic fertilizers, and moni-

the water quality in the Aegean Sea requires a reduction in

toring and evaluation of soil and water quality.

nutrient pollution in the Buyuk Menderes basin.

Buyuk Menderes catchment (Figure 1), a watershed

Several studies have addressed different aspects of

area of 24,976 km2 and 3.2% of the total area of the country,

nutrient pollution in the Buyuk Menderes River basin.

is located in the southwestern part of the Turkey. The length

Altnbas et al. (1999) analyzed nutrient inputs from

of the Buyuk Menderes river is 584 km. Mean annual

fertilizers and agricultural chemicals to the surface waters

precipitation in the river basin is 635 mm and total mean

of Buyuk Menderes basin and investigated water quality of

annual evaporation is 2,122 mm (Class A pan). Precipi-

the Buyuk Menderes river during the irrigation period.

tation occurs mainly in the winters while during the

Considering in particular nutrient fluxes, small amount of

summer irrigation period there is very little rain. Buyuk

work has been done in the basin. For the implementation

Menderes basin is a graben area containing Paleozoic

of the Water Framework Directive, Netherlands and

metamorphic formations consisting of gneiss, schist, cryis-

Turkey made an agreement (MATRA) to investigate the

talline limestone. Most of the agricultural land in the Buyuk

status of water quality in the basin.

Menderes basin is arable land that is drained by artificial

The study presented in this paper differs from the above

ditches, and irrigated during summer. The land use in the

mentioned studies, because it takes point and diffuse sources

Buyuk Menderes river basin is as follows: 40% agriculture,

into account, and the nutrient transport from pollution

45% forest and scrubland, 10% meadow and pasture, 3%

sources to the river outlet. It presents a large scale analysis

empty, 1% settlement, 1% surface water. The agricultural

and a first attempt to spatially model nutrient transport

economy of the basin depends on the irrigated cotton

within the Buyuk Menders drainage basin. The theory of

cultivation, corn, fig and olives. Total population of the

the water fluxes and nutrients transport modeling applied

basin is 2.5 million. 37% of this population is involved in

in the study is essentially based on the approach of

agricultural activities. Large part of the basin depends on

De Wit (1999, 2001), that proposes two models to describe

the Buyuk Menderes river, draining into the Aegean Sea, for

both water flow and nutrients transport through the soil and

its irrigation water supply. The coastal waters of the Aegean

surface water (PolFlow model) as well as comprehensive

Sea have been plagued by algal blooms, leading to fish kills

method to evaluate diffuse and punctual pollution emis-

and unpleasant conditions for tourism. These problems

sions at the river basin scale. This modeling approach was

indicate that the eutrophication in the Aegean Sea have

successfully applied for the Rhine, Elbe, Po and Lake Peipsi-

increased over the last century as a result of the increased

Chudskoe basins (De Wit 2001; De Wit & Bendoricchio 2001;


Mourad & van der Perk 2004). The objectives of this study is
to: (i) construct and implement a first spatial information
database for the modeling of water fluxes and Nitrogen (N)
and Phosphorus (P) surface and subsurface transport in
the Buyuk Menderes catchment; (ii) give an overview of
the average N and P fluxes in the Buyuk Menderes basin;
and (iii) identify key parameters/processes that are most
influential for determining accurate nutrient loading.

METHODS
Modeling water flow
The approach used for modeling is based on the GIS-based
Figure 1

Buyuk Menderes Drainage Basin.

PolFlow model (De Wit 1999). The PolFlow model is

O. F. Durdu and V. Cvetkovic | Modeling water and nutrients fluxes

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Water Science & TechnologyWST | 59.3 | 2009

embedded in PCRaster, a raster GIS suitable for both static

the nutrient transport module of PolFlow (Darracq et al.

and dynamic modeling. All spatial inputs have been

2005). The fraction of the five-year average surplus at the

converted to a generic map format using a 1 km2 grid cell

soil surface (SSS) that is leached, immobilized, volatilized,

size (Mourad & van der Perk 2004). The water flow module

or discharged to the surface water is calculated as a func-

of PolFlow simulates long-term water fluxes within the

tion of average total runoff, groundwater recharge indices,

drainage basin. The module is based on three determinant

groundwater residence time, soil, lithology, slope, land

factors: (i) the long-term average total runoff or precipi-

cover, and the type of pollutant (De Wit & Bendoricchio

tation surplus Q (mm/yr): Q (P 2 Ea) where P is the long-

2001). PolFlow model works on a five years time step.

term average annual runoff (mm/yr) and Ea is the long-term

Different parameters or factors are used to describe and

average actual evapotranspiration (mm/yr). The denomina-

evaluate different paths of circulation for nutrients at the

tion long term always refers to an annual average made

surface of the soil and through the soil and groundwater

over several years (here ten years); (ii) the groundwater

(Darracq et al. (2005)). The data used to model water fluxes

recharge index Qgw/Q, where Qgw is the long-term average

in the Buyuk Menderes basin is shown at Table 1.

total groundwater recharge (mm/yr). In this study, deep


groundwater recharge is considered, i.e. the groundwater
recharge that flow in the deeper part of the aquifer and has

Nutrients transport through the river network

a longer average residence time that the shallow ground-

The local drainage direction map (ldd map) is used to route

water; (iii) the average groundwater residence time RTgw

the nutrients through the river system. A ldd map is a

(year) (Darracq et al. (2005)). The groundwater residence

network of connected cells and developed using a digital

times are based on Wendland (1992) and Meinardi et al.

elevation map (DEM by USGS) by connecting each cell

(1994), and is described in detail in De Wit et al. (2000).

(1 km2) to the lowest neighboring cell all the way down to

These hydrological characteristics are estimated for each

the outlet of the basin. Nutrients transport is governed by

km2 in the Buyuk Menderes basin as a function of average

a transport fraction and in each cell, there is a certain

annual precipitation, average annual temperature, eleva-

fraction of the nutrient loss. The fraction that is transported

tion, land cover, soil data, and lithology.

from a cell to its lowest neighboring cell is described as


a function of the average annual discharge (accumulated
average annual total runoff), slope, and the presence of

Nutrients transport through the soil/groundwater

lakes (De Wit & Bendoricchio 2001). In case of increasing

system

discharge and slope, the relative loss in a cell decreases.

Nutrients are assumed to follow water flow paths and the

As shown in Figure 2, Lx21 and Lx represent the nutrient

results from the water model, therefore, build the basis for

load respectively in the cells x 2 1 and x.

Table 1

Data used to model water fluxes in the Buyuk Menderes River Basin

Data

Resolution

Sources

Average annual precipitation

GLOBALSOD NOAA http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/globalsod

Average annual temperature

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/globalsod

Hydrogeological map

1/250,000

DSI and MTA resources

Digital Elevation Model (DEM)

1 degree, DEM 30 arc


second or 1/250,000

GTOPO30, US Geological Survey

Slope

1 km2

Derived from digital elevation model

Land cover

1/250,000

http://glcf.umiacs.umd.edu/data/landcover/

Soil Map

1/5,000,000

http://www.lib.berkeley.edu/EART/fao.html

Discharge data for rivers

www.dsi.gov.tr

O. F. Durdu and V. Cvetkovic | Modeling water and nutrients fluxes

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Water Science & TechnologyWST | 59.3 | 2009

the cell (m3/s); slope is derived from digital elevation model.


The data used for the analysis of nutrients fluxes in the
Buyuk Menderes basin is shown at Table 2.

RESULTS
Water flux model
The water flux model was only validated by measured
discharges on rivers in the Buyuk Menderes catchment.
For water flux, no calibration was done in the model since
|

Figure 2

Nutrient transportation through the river network.

none of parameter had to be calibrated. Concerning the

The factor tf represents the fraction of nutrients that is

discharge measurements, the monthly data were available

transported from one cell to the downstream one. (1 2 tf)

from the EIE and DSI resources which measures dis-

represents the retention, loss and decay in the river. tf is a

charges at 15 stations (Figure 3). Those data was used to

function of the average discharge in the cell and the terrain

have a value of measured annual average discharge (m3/s)

slope. A tf value of 1 means that there is absolutely no

so that it could be compared with modeled values of

retention, loss or decay in the cell (Darracq et al. (2005)).

discharges. Total groundwater recharge index (Qgw/Q)

The factor tf can be expressed as:

should have been compared to a ratio between average


annual discharge and average weekly lowest discharge.

tf 1 2

Since weekly measurements were not available, this

h
i
2
1 rn1 :1000:slope 1:qrn
d

comparison was not implemented. As demonstrated in


Figure 4a, the comparison between modeled and measured
3

in which rn1 is the loss in the river network (s/m ); rn2 is

discharge values indicates that the results are globally in

the loss in the river network; qd is average discharge in

good agreement.

Table 2

Data used for the analysis of nutrient fluxes in the Buyuk Menderes River Basin

Data

Resolution

Reference

Population numbers

Basin sub-catchments

Turkish Statistical Institute

Connection rate to sewage system and WWTP

Basin sub-catchments

Basin municipalities

Livestock numbers

Basin sub-catchments

Department of Agriculture

Agricultural land use

Basin cities

Department of Agriculture

Crop yields

Basin cities

Department of Agriculture

Fertilizer use

Basin sub-catchments

Department of Agriculture

Industrial emissions

Basin cities

Local Chamber of Industry

Long term average total runoff (Q)

1 km2

Modelling the water flow

Shallow groundwater recharge index (Qgsw)

1 km

Modelling the water flow

Deep groundwater recharge index (Qgwd)

1 km2

Modelling the water flow

Average annual discharge (qd)

1 km

Modelling the water flow

Average residence time shallow groundwater (RTsgw)

1 km2

Modelling the water flow

Average residence time deep groundwater (RTdgw)

1 km

Modelling the water flow

Local drainage direction map

1 km2

Derived from elevation map,


GTOPO30/HYDRO1K, USGS

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5 m3/s on a 50 m3/s value rather than on a 0.1 m3/s value.


Analysis on relative error, ratio between discharge absolute
error and measured discharge, is demonstrated in Figure 5a.
It appears that the error on discharge lies under 25% for
most of them. The results obtained for the deep groundwater recharge index were compared with the reference
values (Figure 5b). The comparison results indicated that
some of the values were overestimated, some of them were
underestimated, and only the half of the results were close
to the supposed real indexes values. These variations can be
explained in several ways: 1) the reference recharge indexes,
the model results are compared with, are calculated since
no direct measurements can be done to evaluate them. An
Figure 3

Location of monitoring stations used for water flow validation: 1-Soke,


2-Kocarl, 3-Cine, 4-Aydn, 5-Yenipazar, 6-Kemer sonras, 7-Nazilli, 8-Feslek,
9-Cubukdag, 10-Kzldere, 11-Saraykoy, 12-Yenice, 13-Curuksu, 14-Adguzel,
15-Bekilli.

empirical ratio was used to compute them, which is rather


rough and could probably be improved; 2) the results
concerning deep groundwater recharge indexes are very
sensitive and differ a lot with a short distance, since they

Water flux model uses two different approaches (Wend-

depend on many parameters.

land 1992; Meinardi et al. 1994) for calculating average

The eastern part of the catchment and the corridor

annual discharges (De Wit 2001). It appears that both

along the river bed have higher recharges in comparison to

methods give results in the same range of values. However,

the other part of the drainage basin. Model results point out

the results from Meinardi et al. (1994) approach are closer

that the total groundwater recharge index is ranged from 0.5

to measured values. The results from Wendland (1992) are

and 1, except for the lakes where it is considered as zero

slightly over estimating discharge values. Therefore, annual

(Figure 6a). The deep groundwater recharge is much more

average discharge values calculated by Meinardi et al. (1994)

dependent on the aquifer quality. Thus, the soil and rock

approach were chosen to use in the following nutrients

characteristics are assign the distribution of the deep

fluxes modeling. Analysis on modeled and measured

groundwater recharge in the region. Figure 6b demonstrates

discharge values indicates that absolute error or difference

the deep groundwater recharge index and it is mostly

increases with the discharge value (Figure 4). This is

between the values of 0.15 and 0.2. The results for residence

reasonable because it is acceptable to make an error of

times in shallow groundwater mainly between 0 and 5 years

Figure 4

(a) Modelled vs. measured annual average discharge in a logarithmic scale, (b) Discharge absolute error vs. measured discharge (logarithmic scale) for each of the 15
stations.

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Figure 5

O. F. Durdu and V. Cvetkovic | Modeling water and nutrients fluxes

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(a) Discharge relative error vs. measured discharge (logarithmic scale) for each of the 15 stations, (b) Modelled groundwater recharge index vs. reference groundwater
recharge index.

indicate that the eastern part of the catchment has higher

surface of the soil and through the soil and groundwater.

values in comparison to the western part (Figure 6c).

Calibration for nutrient flux model was carried out to

The residence time in deep ground water, mainly situated

estimate different parameters: the weighted effect of surface

between 0 and 200 years, is also higher on the flat

runoff (sr), the maximum storage capacity of the soil ( pms),

landscapes in the eastern part of the basin (Figure 6d).

the weighted effect of groundwater recharge (gr), the loss

From above explanations, the modeled discharge values

in the river network (rn1), the loss in the river network (rn2).

appeared to be correct and the groundwater recharge

Calibration was made using measurements of total N and P

indexes were reasonable. Therefore, those results were

concentrations in the main rivers of the Buyuk Menderes

validated and used in the nutrients fluxes modeling.

basin. For the sr parameter it was assumed that emissions to


the surface water and nutrient contents of the soils in the

Nutrients fluxes model

Buyuk Menderes basin were close to those used in the


original model by De Wit (1999). Therefore the sr parameter

The nutrient flux model works on a five years time step.

for N and P model was accepted as 0.00025. pms parameter

Different parameters or factors are used to describe and

was not a local parameter and thus the value used by De

evaluate different paths of circulation for nutrients at the

Wit (1999) could apply to the Buyuk Menderes basin since it


was pollutant specific. pms values for N and P model
chosen as 1.75 and 100, respectively. gr value, Qgw effect on
the leaching of nutrients, was increased slightly to calibrate
the model. The assigned gr value for N and P model was
230. rn1 and rn2 parameters, which govern loss, retention
and decay through the river network, appeared to be the
key for calibration. The Buyuk Menderes basin is largely
spread with alluvial farm lands, therefore, these parameters
were raised compared to values used by De Wit (1999).
The transport model for both N and P is the same except
that denitrification from soil and groundwater is taken into
consideration for N but not for P since this phenomenon
does not occur for this nutrient. As demonstrated in
Figure 7, measured N and P concentrations at 15 different

Figure 6

(a) Total groundwater recharge index, (b) Deep groundwater recharge index,
(c) Residence time in shallow ground water in years, (d) Residence time in
deep ground water in years.

stations along the Buyuk Menderes basin are very variable


(Altnbas et al. 1999; Guven 2004; DSI data). The reason for
this is that water samples do not always stand for the

537

Figure 7

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Water Science & TechnologyWST | 59.3 | 2009

(a) Average measured N concentrations along the Buyuk Menderes river basin, (b) Average measured P concentrations along the Buyuk Menderes river basin.

average concentration of the entire river discharge at a

one (during the transport process) is higher in the east part

certain point in the river.

of Buyuk Menderes basin than the west part. The reason

For each monitoring station on the 1999 2004 period,

for that is that tf depends among other factor on the slope,

an annual average nutrient concentration was calculated

which is more important in the east region. In turn a

using the monthly gross values of the measurement data.

higher transmission factor leads to less retention and more

Calculated concentration value was multiplied by the

nutrients flowing into the streams. The results were

modeled annual average water discharge at the location of

however considered as satisfactory and validated since

the corresponding station where measured data were not

they reflected the measurements at most of the monitoring

always available. This process produces a measured or

stations.

observed average amount or load of nutrients that passes by

In the Middle Buyuk Menderes basin (Nazilli, Feslek,

a station in one year. Figure 8 demonstrates total N and P

Kzldere, Saraykoy, Cubukdag stations), there are signifi-

loads in the river network for the period of 1999 2004.

cant differences between modeled and observed values of

As shown in the figures, there is an overestimation of the

the nutrient loads, which is more prominent in nitrogen.

nutrient loads in the Upper Buyuk Menderes basin (Yenice

This might partly be due to fact that the city of Denizli and

Reg., Adguzel, Bekilli, Curuksu stations) which is especially

surrounding cities have high population and great industrial

visible concerning phosphorus. This might be because of

sectors and none of those cities have an active waste water

the transmission factor tf from one cell to the downstream

treatment plant. The estimation of point sources has been

Figure 8

(a) Modelled vs measured N load (T. year21) in a logarithmic scale, (b) Modelled vs measured P load (T. year21) in a logarithmic scale.

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based on average relations between emission and popu-

and more process-oriented models for hydrology, diffuse

lation and waste water treatment connection and efficiency

nutrient losses and nutrient turnover in integrated models

rates, which gave reasonable results in the past for densely

(Kronvang et al. 1999). Integrating with a GIS environment,

populated areas (De Wit 1999; De Wit 2001; Mourad & van

such models can be significant tools for environmental

der Perk 2004). Moreover, Kzldere geothermal power

management, monitoring and research since they provide

plant, which produces 57 80 MW/year of electricity and

insight into the coupling between the location and devel-

discharges 6 million tones of wastewater annually to the

opment of deriving forces and pressures that determine

Greater Menderes river, is one of the main direct source of

nutrient loss within a catchment and the resulting environ-

nutrient pollution of the middle part of the basin. Discharge

mental impact. The model demonstrated in this study linked

of the wastewater into the river causes both ecological and

PolFlow model with PCRaster environment for diffuse

environmental problems because the discharge temperature

nutrient loss to surface water and nutrient turnover in

of the water is approximately 1408C (Durdu 2005). Due to

stream channels and riparian areas with a hydrodynamic

discharges from power plant and other thermal spring into

model and a GIS platform.

the river, there are indicative differences between measured

This study indicated that the distribution characteristics

and modeled N and P loads. Figure 8a indicates that the

of N in the Buyuk Menderes river were similar. The

total N load in the Lower Buyuk Menderes Basin (Nazilli,

concentration increased in the middle reaches and kept

Aydn, Soke stations) is underestimated with PolFlow.

relatively lower in the upper reaches (Figure 7a). This

The reason is that there are extensive agricultural practices

distribution pattern of N in the Buyuk Menderes river was

in this region. Especially chemical pollution by pesticides

mainly due to the differences in human activities. There is

and fertilizers, conversion of native and forest lands to

limited anthropogenic disturbance in the upper reaches due

agriculture and soil loss due to agricultural practices are

to the low population density (1 20 people per square

main diffuse sources of pollution. Figure 8b shows that the

kilometer). In the middle reaches of Buyuk Menderes basin,

total P loads at each sampling locations are underestimated.

population density increases to 20 100 people per square

Figure 9 is the map of nutrient loads and it appears that

kilometer, which results in intensive anthropogenic disturb-

nutrients accumulate along rivers resulting in an increasing

ance, through industrial and agricultural production, stock-

load moving to the downstream direction.

breeding, municipal swage, etc. Also a geothermal power


plant near Saraykoy (station 12) and geothermal touristy
hotels discharge their wastewater into the river. Therefore,

DISCUSSION

N concentrations increased dramatically in the middle


reaches. In the upper and lower reaches, N concentrations

During the past decade, it has become more and more

are relatively low due to less differences in anthropogenic

obvious that environmental research has to consider how to

disturbance. This results are also consistent with the Aydn

upscale results from the field scale to a larger scale in order

& Denizli Environmental Case Reports (2006). The study

to enforce local environmental planning. Recent attention

also showed that the N concentrations in the tributaries

has therefore focused on how to combine simple empirical

such as stations 3, 7 and 13, were generally clearly lower


than those in the mainstream water.
The distribution of P was different from N in the Buyuk
Menderes basin. In the middle and lower reaches, P
concentrations remained somewhat stable due to suspended matter content (Figure 7b). Dissolved P is easily
adsorbed by suspended matter. The adsorption quantity is
depended to the physical and chemical properties of

Figure 9

(a) Annual modeled N load in the Buyuk Menderes basin in kilos for the
years 19992004 and river network, (b) Annual modeled P load in the
Buyuk Menderes basin in kilos for the years 19992004 and river network.

suspended matter. In natural waters, P exists almost


exclusively in the form of phosphate ion. Therefore, P is

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Water Science & TechnologyWST | 59.3 | 2009

almost always in the particulate phase (Shen & Liu 2008).

This has resulted in abnormal nutrient ratios and important

The suspended matter in the middle and lower reaches of

changes in the ecological environment. There are significant

the Buyuk Menderes river mainly comes from the upper

difference in scale and nature of human activities along

reaches and its tributaries. P concentrations in the Buyuk

the middle reaches, which lead to the dramatic difference in

Menderes river was related to the large amounts of soil

non-point sources N imported into the river. In the upper

washed into the river by heavy rain, catching high

reaches, however, the scale and nature of human activities

concentration of P in the form of particulate. With the

have little difference, the N concentration in the river

increasing runoff in the Buyuk Menderes river from the

seems relatively low. There are no correlations between P

upper reaches to lower reaches, the concentrations of N

concentrations and runoff in the Buyuk Menderes main

and P also increased. This pattern in the lower reaches,

stream, which shows that P concentration is mainly con-

however is more obvious than in the middle and upper

trolled by suspended matter rather than runoff (Figure 10b).

reaches (Figure 10a, b). The continuous import of N and

Coastal eutrophication is becoming more and more

P from the precipitation and surface water to the river

serious and tending to increase in the Aegean Sea adjacent

arises mainly from agricultural non-point sources. This

to the estuary of the Buyuk Menderes river, which has

fact also supported by the Aydn & Denizli Environmental

become popular site for harmful algal bloom. Such trends

Case Reports (2006).

are presumably related to the nutrients transported by the

In the Buyuk Menderes main stream, there are correla-

Buyuk Menderes river. It is important to construct a

tions between N and runoff (Figure 10a). However, if we

possible dam to reduce the sediment load into the estuary

consider the correlation in the lower reaches, we could find

and improve the transparence of seawater, due to settle-

that are clear positive linear correlation between the

ment of suspended matter up to 60 70% in the reservoir.

concentrations of N and main stream runoff (r 2 0.72,

However, it could be expected that, with a construction of a

p , 0.01). The difference in the correlations between N

possible dam, population increase and rapid economic

concentration and runoff in the upper, middle and lower

development in the Buyuk Menderes catchment, more

reaches is related to the N sources of the Buyuk Menderes

ecological and environmental issues might arise in the

river. N in the upper and lower reaches of the river water

estuary.

mainly come from agricultural fertilizer, and soil erosion

The model employed in this study aims to predict long-

etc. This fact also supported by Boyacioglu & Boyacioglu

term nutrient loads from a watershed. The mean absolute

(2007). Buyuk Menderes basin is a large agricultural region

(%) error of estimations of yearly nitrogen and phosphate

where agricultural activities comprise the primary economic

loads during the years 1999 2004 is 28% and 14% and

activity. Increase of N concentration in the Buyuk

the corresponding r 2 values is 0.77 and 0.85, respectively.

Menderes river has led to the increase N concentration in

Considering the simplicity of the model and the defective-

the sea areas adjacent to the Buyuk Menderes estuarine.

ness of input data this can be considered a quite good result.

Figure 10

(a) The relationships between N concentrations and the river runoff r 2 0.254, p , 0.01; (b) The relationships between P concentrations and the river runoff r 2 0.146,
p , 0.01.

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During the validation steps, the model underestimates

be applicable for the Buyuk Menderes basin. Results from

nitrogen loads by approximately 28% even though stream-

the study indicate that PolFlow model constitutes a

flow is quite well predicted during the study period

relatively simple and robust approach to quantifying water

(Figure 8a). This is probable since the use of fertilizers

flow and nutrient transport.

dropped dramatically in the beginning of the 200000 s due

The integration of both surface and groundwater

to the economical problems in Turkey. The model, as

transport within the same model is another asset that

implemented, produces good results for prediction of

gives also value to this approach. GIS based environment

phosphorus loads. The modeled phosphorus loads are

makes the model outputs easier to analyze.

about 15% less than observed loads (Figure 8b). A possible

The modelled nutrient fluxes for the Buyuk Menderes

cause to this underestimation could be an underestimation

basin show a reasonable agreement with measured values.

of phosphorus loads from erosion. The erosion factor,

Because of huge industrial sectors, thermal water tourism

the rainfall erosivity and the sediment delivery ratio are

and population, nutrient loads in the middle part of the

dependent on parameters such as agricultural management

basin are increasing. In the lower part of the basin, there is

practices (Wallin 2005). Since no such data are available,

general perception that the emissions from point sources

the chosen value is a very rough approximation. A more

have been remarkably stable, agriculture has become

probable explanation for the underestimation of phos-

the main source of nutrient pollution in the basin rivers.

phorus loads is that the observed values of point source

Several aspects might however been highlighted as points

phosphorus loads in the basin are less than the actual values

that could be improved and investigation that could be

and that phosphorus from anthropogenic sources. Water

carried out further. The quality, accuracy, and resolution of

from the Buyuk Menderes river basin is the main con-

the input data should be improved. In order to evaluate

tributor to the Aegean Sea region. The lack of sewage

better the consequences of climate change, population

treatment facilities in the basin contributes to very large

increase, and agricultural practices on the nutrient load in

input of phosphorus to the sea.

the Buyuk Menderes basin, several alternative scenarios

The quality of data is of major importance for the result


of any modelling. In the Buyuk Menderes basin it is difficult

can now be developed using the presented modeling


methodology.

to find reliable data. In order for modelling results of


nutrient flows from the entire Aegean Sea basin to be
trustworthy for management and future scenario building,
more reliable data are therefore needed. It is important that
such data are easily accessed and homogenous in order to
support sustainable water management in the Aegean Sea

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The research described in this paper was supported by the
Swedish-Turkish scholarships for European Studies, as part
of the Swedish Institute (SI) exchange program.

region. The current model helps to identify what data may


be most needed and at what locations.

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