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# Chapter 1 (Week 1 - 2)

Probability
(Dr.S.Rajalingam)
Lecture 1
Introduction to Basic Probability
Sample Spaces and Events

Learning Objectives:
At the end of the lecture student should be able to:

## Define random events, identify types of events, apply

Venn Diagram and laws to find event set including
intersection, union and complement.

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and uncertainty.

## It is helpful in investigating the important features

(MMM) of these random experiments.

## Also helps to explain a lot of everyday occurrences and

we actually discuss it frequently. In engineering.
Example:
The probability of a good part being produce,
The reliability of a new machine (reliabilities are
actually probabilities) .

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Probability

## An experiment can result in several possible outcome.

Example: One toss of a coin result in the outcomes (H,T). If the
coin is fair, then each outcome is equally likely.
Two

## tosses of a coin result in the outcomes (HH, HT,

TH, TT). If the coin is fair, then each outcome is equally
likely.

If

## a machine produces articles, some of which are

defective, the outcomes are (defective, not defective).
In this case the outcome should not be equally likely.

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Definitions
Random Process: Any process whose possible results are
known but actual results cannot be predicted with certainty
Outcome : Each possible result for a random process.
Experiment: Process by which an observation
measurement is obtained (yield outcomes)

or

## Sample Space: Denoted by S, is the set of all possible

outcomes of an experiment.
Event is any collection (subset) of outcomes contained in
the sample space S.
Simple event - consists of exactly one outcome and
Compound event - consists of more than one
outcome.

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## Sample Spaces and Events

Example1. For one throw/roll of an ordinary die the
possibility sample space is
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Simple events (consists of exactly one outcome):
E1: observe a 1= {1}

E3 = {3}

E4 = {4}

E2 = {2}

E5 = {5}

E6 = {6}

## Compound events: consists of more than one outcome.

A : observe an odd number = {1, 3, 5}
B : observe a number greater than or equal to 4 = {4, 5, 6}
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Example 2

## Toss a coin three times and note the number of heads

S = { 0, 1, 2, 3 }

## The lifetime of a machine (in days)

S = { t | t 0 } = [ 0, )

## The working state of a machine

S = { working, fail }

## The number of calls arriving at a telephone exchange

during a specific time interval
S = { 0, 1, }
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Example 3:

## Each message in a digital communication system is classified as to

whether it is received within the time specified by the system design.
If 3 messages are classified, what is an appropriate sample space for
this experiment?
To generate the sample space, we can use a tree diagram

Message 3
Message 2

Message 1

n
y

n
n

y
n
y
n
y
n
y
n

## S = { yyy, yyn, yny, ynn,

nyy, nyn, nny, nnn}

Definitions
The union of events A and B, denoted by A U B and read A
or B is the event consisting of all outcomes that are either
in A or in B or in both events.
The intersection of A and B, denoted by A B and read A
and B, is the event consisting of all outcomes that are in
both A and B.
The complement of event A, A, is the event of all outcomes
in the sample space S that are not contained in event A.

## If two events A and B have no outcomes in common they

are said to be mutually exclusive or disjoint events. This
means if one of the event occurs the other cannot.
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Venn Diagram

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Venn Diagram

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Venn Diagram

## Graphical display of events in a sample space.

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Example 4 (Question)

## A digital scale is used that provide weights to the nearest gram.

Let event A: a weight exceeds 11 grams
B: a weight is less than or equal to 15 grams
C: a weight is greater than or equal to 8 grams and
less than 12 grams.

## (i) What is the sample space for this experiment?

(ii) Describe the following events
a) A U B
b) A B

c) A

d) A U B U A U C

e) (A U C)

f) A B C

g) B C

h) A U (B C)
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Example 4 (Question)

## A digital scale is used that provide weights to the nearest gram.

Let event A: a weight exceeds 11 grams
B: a weight is less than or equal to 15 grams
C: a weight is greater than or equal to 8 grams and
less than 12 grams.

## (i) What is the sample space for this experiment?

Solution (i)
S = nonnegative integers from 0 to the largest integer that
can be displayed by the scale, or
S = {0, 1, 2, 3, }
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Solution (ii)
Let X represent weight.
A = the event that X > 11 or {12,13,14,..}
B = the event that X 15 or

{0,1, 2, 3, .....15}

or

## {8, 9, 10, 11}

a) A U B = S

b) A B = { X: 11 < X 15 }
or {12, 13, 14, 15}

c) A = { X: X 11}
{0, 1, 2, , 11}

d) A U B U A U C = S
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A = {12,13,14,..}
B = {0,1, 2, 3, .....15}
C = {8, 9, 10, 11}
e) A C = {8, 9 ,10, 11, 12,,13, } or { X: X 8}
Therefore (A C) = {0, 1, 2, , 7}

or

{ X: X < 8 }

f) A B C = {A B} C
= {12, 13,14, 15} {8, 9, 10, 11} =

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A =
B =
C =

{12,13,14,..}
{0,1, 2, 3, .....15}
{8, 9, 10, 11}

g) B = { X: X > 15}.
Therefore, B C would be the empty set or
h) B C = { X: 8 X <12} or {8, 9, 10, 11}

Therefore A (B C) = {X: X 8}

or {8, 9, 10, }

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END

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