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Chapter 1 (Week 1 - 2)

Probability
(Dr.S.Rajalingam)
Lecture 1
Introduction to Basic Probability
Sample Spaces and Events

Learning Objectives:
At the end of the lecture student should be able to:

Define and construct sample space of an experiment.

Define random events, identify types of events, apply


Venn Diagram and laws to find event set including
intersection, union and complement.

Identify mutually exclusive and exhaustive events.

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Probability theory refers to the study of randomness


and uncertainty.

It is helpful in investigating the important features


(MMM) of these random experiments.

Also helps to explain a lot of everyday occurrences and


we actually discuss it frequently. In engineering.
Example:
The probability of a good part being produce,
The reliability of a new machine (reliabilities are
actually probabilities) .

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Probability

An experiment can result in several possible outcome.


Example: One toss of a coin result in the outcomes (H,T). If the
coin is fair, then each outcome is equally likely.
Two

tosses of a coin result in the outcomes (HH, HT,


TH, TT). If the coin is fair, then each outcome is equally
likely.

If

a machine produces articles, some of which are


defective, the outcomes are (defective, not defective).
In this case the outcome should not be equally likely.

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Definitions
Random Process: Any process whose possible results are
known but actual results cannot be predicted with certainty
in advance.
Outcome : Each possible result for a random process.
Experiment: Process by which an observation
measurement is obtained (yield outcomes)

or

Sample Space: Denoted by S, is the set of all possible


outcomes of an experiment.
Event is any collection (subset) of outcomes contained in
the sample space S.
Simple event - consists of exactly one outcome and
Compound event - consists of more than one
outcome.

Null event: An event with no outcomes.


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Sample Spaces and Events


Example1. For one throw/roll of an ordinary die the
possibility sample space is
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Simple events (consists of exactly one outcome):
E1: observe a 1= {1}

E3 = {3}

E4 = {4}

E2 = {2}

E5 = {5}

E6 = {6}

Compound events: consists of more than one outcome.


A : observe an odd number = {1, 3, 5}
B : observe a number greater than or equal to 4 = {4, 5, 6}
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Example 2

Toss a coin three times and note the number of heads


S = { 0, 1, 2, 3 }

The lifetime of a machine (in days)


S = { t | t 0 } = [ 0, )

The working state of a machine

S = { working, fail }

The number of calls arriving at a telephone exchange


during a specific time interval
S = { 0, 1, }
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Example 3:

Each message in a digital communication system is classified as to


whether it is received within the time specified by the system design.
If 3 messages are classified, what is an appropriate sample space for
this experiment?
To generate the sample space, we can use a tree diagram

Message 3
Message 2

Message 1

n
y

n
n

y
n
y
n
y
n
y
n

S = { yyy, yyn, yny, ynn,


nyy, nyn, nny, nnn}

Definitions
The union of events A and B, denoted by A U B and read A
or B is the event consisting of all outcomes that are either
in A or in B or in both events.
The intersection of A and B, denoted by A B and read A
and B, is the event consisting of all outcomes that are in
both A and B.
The complement of event A, A, is the event of all outcomes
in the sample space S that are not contained in event A.

If two events A and B have no outcomes in common they


are said to be mutually exclusive or disjoint events. This
means if one of the event occurs the other cannot.
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Venn Diagram

Graphical display of events in a sample space.

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Venn Diagram

Graphical display of events in a sample space.

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Venn Diagram

Graphical display of events in a sample space.

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Example 4 (Question)

A digital scale is used that provide weights to the nearest gram.


Let event A: a weight exceeds 11 grams
B: a weight is less than or equal to 15 grams
C: a weight is greater than or equal to 8 grams and
less than 12 grams.

(i) What is the sample space for this experiment?


(ii) Describe the following events
a) A U B
b) A B

c) A

d) A U B U A U C

e) (A U C)

f) A B C

g) B C

h) A U (B C)
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Example 4 (Question)

A digital scale is used that provide weights to the nearest gram.


Let event A: a weight exceeds 11 grams
B: a weight is less than or equal to 15 grams
C: a weight is greater than or equal to 8 grams and
less than 12 grams.

(i) What is the sample space for this experiment?

Solution (i)
S = nonnegative integers from 0 to the largest integer that
can be displayed by the scale, or
S = {0, 1, 2, 3, }
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Solution (ii)
Let X represent weight.
A = the event that X > 11 or {12,13,14,..}
B = the event that X 15 or

{0,1, 2, 3, .....15}

C = the event that 8 X <12

or

{8, 9, 10, 11}

a) A U B = S

b) A B = { X: 11 < X 15 }
or {12, 13, 14, 15}

c) A = { X: X 11}
{0, 1, 2, , 11}

d) A U B U A U C = S
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A = {12,13,14,..}
B = {0,1, 2, 3, .....15}
C = {8, 9, 10, 11}
e) A C = {8, 9 ,10, 11, 12,,13, } or { X: X 8}
Therefore (A C) = {0, 1, 2, , 7}

or

{ X: X < 8 }

f) A B C = {A B} C
= {12, 13,14, 15} {8, 9, 10, 11} =

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A =
B =
C =

{12,13,14,..}
{0,1, 2, 3, .....15}
{8, 9, 10, 11}

g) B = { X: X > 15}.
Therefore, B C would be the empty set or
h) B C = { X: 8 X <12} or {8, 9, 10, 11}

Therefore A (B C) = {X: X 8}

or {8, 9, 10, }

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END

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