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Probability

(Dr.S.Rajalingam)

Lecture 1

Introduction to Basic Probability

Sample Spaces and Events

Learning Objectives:

At the end of the lecture student should be able to:

Venn Diagram and laws to find event set including

intersection, union and complement.

May 15

and uncertainty.

(MMM) of these random experiments.

we actually discuss it frequently. In engineering.

Example:

The probability of a good part being produce,

The reliability of a new machine (reliabilities are

actually probabilities) .

May 15

Probability

Example: One toss of a coin result in the outcomes (H,T). If the

coin is fair, then each outcome is equally likely.

Two

TH, TT). If the coin is fair, then each outcome is equally

likely.

If

defective, the outcomes are (defective, not defective).

In this case the outcome should not be equally likely.

May 15

Definitions

Random Process: Any process whose possible results are

known but actual results cannot be predicted with certainty

in advance.

Outcome : Each possible result for a random process.

Experiment: Process by which an observation

measurement is obtained (yield outcomes)

or

outcomes of an experiment.

Event is any collection (subset) of outcomes contained in

the sample space S.

Simple event - consists of exactly one outcome and

Compound event - consists of more than one

outcome.

5

May 15

Example1. For one throw/roll of an ordinary die the

possibility sample space is

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Simple events (consists of exactly one outcome):

E1: observe a 1= {1}

E3 = {3}

E4 = {4}

E2 = {2}

E5 = {5}

E6 = {6}

A : observe an odd number = {1, 3, 5}

B : observe a number greater than or equal to 4 = {4, 5, 6}

May 15

Example 2

S = { 0, 1, 2, 3 }

S = { t | t 0 } = [ 0, )

S = { working, fail }

during a specific time interval

S = { 0, 1, }

7

Example 3:

whether it is received within the time specified by the system design.

If 3 messages are classified, what is an appropriate sample space for

this experiment?

To generate the sample space, we can use a tree diagram

Message 3

Message 2

Message 1

n

y

n

n

y

n

y

n

y

n

y

n

nyy, nyn, nny, nnn}

Definitions

The union of events A and B, denoted by A U B and read A

or B is the event consisting of all outcomes that are either

in A or in B or in both events.

The intersection of A and B, denoted by A B and read A

and B, is the event consisting of all outcomes that are in

both A and B.

The complement of event A, A, is the event of all outcomes

in the sample space S that are not contained in event A.

are said to be mutually exclusive or disjoint events. This

means if one of the event occurs the other cannot.

May 15

May 15

10

Venn Diagram

May 15

11

Venn Diagram

May 15

12

Venn Diagram

13

May 15

Example 4 (Question)

Let event A: a weight exceeds 11 grams

B: a weight is less than or equal to 15 grams

C: a weight is greater than or equal to 8 grams and

less than 12 grams.

(ii) Describe the following events

a) A U B

b) A B

c) A

d) A U B U A U C

e) (A U C)

f) A B C

g) B C

h) A U (B C)

14

Example 4 (Question)

Let event A: a weight exceeds 11 grams

B: a weight is less than or equal to 15 grams

C: a weight is greater than or equal to 8 grams and

less than 12 grams.

Solution (i)

S = nonnegative integers from 0 to the largest integer that

can be displayed by the scale, or

S = {0, 1, 2, 3, }

15

Solution (ii)

Let X represent weight.

A = the event that X > 11 or {12,13,14,..}

B = the event that X 15 or

{0,1, 2, 3, .....15}

or

a) A U B = S

b) A B = { X: 11 < X 15 }

or {12, 13, 14, 15}

c) A = { X: X 11}

{0, 1, 2, , 11}

d) A U B U A U C = S

16

A = {12,13,14,..}

B = {0,1, 2, 3, .....15}

C = {8, 9, 10, 11}

e) A C = {8, 9 ,10, 11, 12,,13, } or { X: X 8}

Therefore (A C) = {0, 1, 2, , 7}

or

{ X: X < 8 }

f) A B C = {A B} C

= {12, 13,14, 15} {8, 9, 10, 11} =

17

A =

B =

C =

{12,13,14,..}

{0,1, 2, 3, .....15}

{8, 9, 10, 11}

g) B = { X: X > 15}.

Therefore, B C would be the empty set or

h) B C = { X: 8 X <12} or {8, 9, 10, 11}

Therefore A (B C) = {X: X 8}

or {8, 9, 10, }

18

END

May 15

19

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