NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll

October 2015
Iowa Questionnaire
Screener
<Marist Poll Introduction> Are you 18 years of age or older?
Do you consider your permanent home address to be in Iowa?
HH SELECTION – LANDLINE FRAME ONLY
GENDER GUESS
October 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=431, MOE +/- 4.7%; September 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=390, MOE +/- 5.0%; July 2015:
Potential Republican Electorate: n=342, MOE +/- 5.3%; February 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=320, MOE +/- 5.5%
If the 2016 Republican presidential caucus in Iowa were held today, whom
would you support if the candidates are (including those who are undecided
yet leaning toward a candidate):
October 2015
July 2015
February 2015
POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE
September 2015
NA
Donald Trump
24
29
17
6
Ben Carson
19
22
8
1
NA
Carly Fiorina
8
5
16
Jeb Bush
7
6
12
2
Ted Cruz
6
4
4
4
6
Marco Rubio
6
4
NA
Bobby Jindal
6
4
1
17
Mike Huckabee
5
3
7
7
Rand Paul
4
5
5
9
Chris Christie
4
2
2
NA
John Kasich
3
2
2
<1
5
Rick Santorum
1
1
1
<1
1
Lindsey Graham
1
<1
<1
<1
NA
George Pataki
<1
<1
<1
NA
Jim Gilmore
15
Scott Walker
NA
5
19
<1
4
Rick Perry
NA
3
14
14
Undecided
7
8
Total

100

100

October 2015: Potential Republican Electorate with a Candidate Preference: n=370, MOE +/- 5.1%; September
2015: Potential Republican Electorate with a Candidate Preference: n=328, MOE +/- 5.4%
Who is your second choice for the 2016 Republican presidential caucus in
Iowa (including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate):
POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE WITH A CANDIDATE
PREFERENCE
Ben Carson
Donald Trump
Carly Fiorina
Marco Rubio
Jeb Bush
Ted Cruz
Rand Paul
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
Rick Santorum
Chris Christie
John Kasich
Lindsey Graham
George Pataki
Jim Gilmore
Scott Walker
Rick Perry
Undecided
Total

October 2015

September 2015

17
14
13
10
10
8
6
6
5
3
2
2
2
1
<1
NA
NA
3
100

21
12
6
4
9
6
3
4
4
2
2
3
1
1
0
11
2
8
100

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: Iowa October 2015; Page 1

100

100

October 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=348, MOE +/- 5.3%; September 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=345, MOE +/5.3%; July 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=320, MOE +/- 5.5%
If the 2016 Democratic presidential caucus in Iowa were held today, whom
would you support if the candidates are (including those who are undecided
yet leaning toward a candidate):
POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Martin O'Malley
Jim Webb
Lincoln Chafee
Undecided
Total

October 2015
47
36
4
1
<1
13
100

September 2015
48
37
4
2
1
8
100

July 2015
55
26
4
2
1
13
100

October 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=348, MOE +/- 5.3%; September 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=345, MOE +/- 5.3%; July 2015:
Potential Democratic Electorate: n=320, MOE +/- 5.5%; February 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=321, MOE +/- 5.5%
If the 2016 Democratic presidential caucus in Iowa were held today, whom
would you support if the candidates are (including those who are undecided
yet leaning toward a candidate and if Vice President Joe Biden enters the
race):
POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Joe Biden
Martin O'Malley
Jim Webb
Lincoln Chafee
Undecided
Total

October 2015
33
28
22
3
1
<1
12
100

September 2015
38
27
20
4
2
1
8
100

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: Iowa October 2015; Page 2

July 2015
49
25
10
3
1
<1
11
100

February 2015
68
7
12
<1
1
NA
12
100