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THAILAND

Strategy Snapshot

Tracking Fundamental Momentum

Earnings Revision Trend

The first positive signal in many weeks

140

Action and recommendation

120

Last week, consensus turned positive on its earnings forecasts for Thai-listed

100

SET 2014

SET 2015

Jun-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jan-15

Feb-15
Mar-15

Dec-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Sep-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Jun-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jan-14

Feb-14
Mar-14

80

SET 2016

The implied SET Index target was raised slightly, from 1 , 6 88. 80 to 1 , 6 90. 79

EPS Growth 2015

32.0%

(+0.12% WoW) on the back of the improved outlooks for the Transportation (AOT,
BTSGIF, BECL) and Petrochemical (PTTGC) sectors. However, consensus cut its
forecasts for the Entertainment (MCOT, MONO, RS, BEC) and Banking (LHBANK,
BAY, KKP, KBANK, TCAP) sectors.

31.0%

Among the stocks that consensus viewed more bullishly both in terms of earnings

EPS
Growth

EPS
101.0

33.0%

32.2%
31.6%

100.0

31.2%

100.12

30.6%
99.62

99.0

30.8%

99.37
98.86

99.05

98.0

30.0%
29.0%

-4W

-3W

companies in 2015, with a slight upward revision of 0.19% WoW to Bt99.05 per
share from Bt98.86. As a result, 2015E EPS growth rose to 30.8% from 30. 6% in
the previous week mainly due to upgrades of the Hotel (ERW, CENTEL), Property
(WHA, AMATA, PYLON, CPN, ANAN, HEMRAJ) and Construction Services (BJCHI)
sectors. Meanwhile, estimated earnings of the Entertainment (MONO, MCOT, WORK,
RS, BEC) and Food (CPF, CFRESH, TUF, SAPPE) sectors were revised down.

-2W

EPS

-1W

12-Jun

and target price were AOT and BJCHI.

Key investment points


Tracking Fundamental Momentum (TFM) is a quantitative analysis report that

EPS Growth

monitors changes in consensus earnings and target-price forecasts for companies


listed on the Thai stock market on a weekly basis. We use data that has at least 3
sources, resulting in a total of 149 stocks in our universe.

SET Index Target


1,800
Implied SET
Index Target

1,600

Earnings Revisions

1,400
1,200
1,000

Last week (8- 12 June), the overall earnings trend for Thai-listed companies was

+1 SD From avg
discount from
Implied SET
Index Target

SET Index

positive, with earnings forecasts for 2015 rising by 0.19% to Bt99.05 per share from
Bt98.86 in the previous week. As a result, 2 0 1 5 E EPS growth rose to 30.8% from
30.6% (Fig 1).

800
-1 SD From avg
discount from
Implied SET
Index Target

600
400
200
Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

2015E earnings for the Hotel, Property and Construction Services sectors were
Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Remark: Implied SET index target derived from target prices estimated
by consensus, from a total 149 firms in our universe.

viewed more positively last week. In the Hotel sector, CENTELs estimated earnings
were raised again (+0.90% WoW) along with ERWs (+0.93% WoW). Meanwhile,
the Property sector was led higher by WHA, AMATA, PYLON, CPN, ANAN, HEMRAJ,
while in the Construction Services sector, BJCHI (+1.35% WoW) paced the improved
view (Figs 3,5).
Looking at individual stocks, TRUE, MEGA, BJC and TRUEIF all saw upward revisions

of more than 1% (Fig 5).


On the negative side, consensus downgraded 2015E earnings of the Entertainment

Analyst (s)
Auayporn Meesiln
Auayporn.m@kasikornsecurities.com

16 June 2015

and Food sectors. The outlook for the Entertainment sector was pulled down by
MONO (its expected earnings reversed from a gain to a loss), RS and BEC, while in
the Food sector the bearish sentiment was focused on CPF, CFRESH, TUF, SAPPE
(Figs 3, 5).
Looking at individual stocks, THAI, ESSO, JMART and TICON all saw downward

revisions of more than 6% (Fig 5).

Kasikorn Securities Public Company Limited

Kasikorn Securities Public Company Limited may be the issuer of structured notes on the securities which are the constituents of SET50 index.
Please refer to the important disclosures and disclaimers at the end of this document. This publication is intended for the benefits of non-institutional clients of Kasikorn Securities pcl.

Target Price Revisions


Last week (8-12 June), the implied SET Index target rose 0.12% WoW from

1,688.80pts to 1,690.79pts in the previous week (Fig 2).


Interestingly, the SET Index (green line in the left figure) has never traded above

the implied SET Index target (orange line). Under normal market conditions, the
SET Index trades at an average discount (grey line), or slightly under or above the
line. It has risen to the upper bound (+1SD) when investors have viewed the market
optimistically and slumped to the lower bound (-1SD) when they have viewed it
pessimistically.
The SET Index closed at 1,508.23 on Friday, or 6.52% above the average discount

line (1,415.86) (Fig 2). We thus see limited downside for stock prices from the
average discount line and do not expect the index to fall to the lower bound (-1SD),
or 1,228.11pts. We can see this on the first page (Strategy Snapshot, Pic 3).
Target prices for the Transportation and Petrochemical sectors were all raised. The

improved outlook for the Transportation sector was driven by AOT, BTSGIF and
BECL. Meanwhile, in the Petrochemical sector, PTTGC paced the upward revisions
(Figs 3, 5).
Looking at individual stocks, WORK, BJCHI, SVI, TISCO, PTT and ASP all saw their

target prices upgraded by more than 1% (Fig 5).


Sectors that saw their target prices lowered by analyst consensus included

Entertainment and Banking. The Entertainment sector was pulled down by MCOT,
MONO, RS and BEC, while the Banking sectors downward revision was centered on
LHBANK, BAY, KKP, KBANK and TCAP (Figs 3, 5).
In terms of individual stocks, SIM, CFRESH, JMART and PSL stood out with target-

price downgrades of more than 3% (Fig 5).

Connection between target price and earnings


Stock (target prices +, earnings+)
We believe stocks that had both their earnings and target prices revised up should outperform the

market in the medium term.


AOT and BJCHI both saw upward adjustments of their target prices and earnings from the previous

week. AOTs target price increased 2.75% WoW (from Bt324.21 to Bt333.13), while its earnings were
raised 0.43% WoW. Meanwhile, BJCHIs target price was raised by 2.25% (from Bt8.99 to Bt9.19)
and earnings by 1.35% (Fig 6).

Stocks (target prices +, earnings 0)


Among the stocks whose target prices were raised while their earnings were left unchanged were

SVI and ASP. Their fair prices were revised up by 1.97% and 1.23%, respectively (Fig 6).

Stocks (target prices -, earnings -)


The Entertainment sector (MCOT, MONO, RS, BEC), CFRESH and JMART saw downward adjustments

of both target prices and earnings from the previous week (Fig 6).
In conclusion, this week we see the most positive momentum in AOT and BJCHI, and the
most negative momentum in MCOT, MONO, RS, BEC, CFRESH and JMART.

16 June 2015

Tracking Fundamental Momentum

Fig 1 Thailand Earnings Revisions 2015E

Fig 2 SET Index Target and Upside

SET

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

12-Jun

EPS

101.38

100.47

99.37

-1.25

-0.90

-1.09

SET

22-May

29-May

5-Jun

12-Jun

EPS

99.62

99.37

98.86

% WoW Change

-0.50

-0.25

-0.51

% MTD Change

Date

SET Index

SET Target

Upside

99.05

8-Jun-15

1508.28

1688.80

11.97%

-0.32

12-Jun-15

1508.23

1690.79

12.10%

Date

Upper

Average

Lower

99.05

8-Jun-15

1601.73

1414.20

1226.67

0.19

12-Jun-15

1603.61

1415.86

1228.11

Source: Bloomberg, 15 June 2015

Source: Bloomberg, 15 June 2015

Fig 3 Earnings & Target Price Revisions by Sector


Ta rge t
WoW
TRANS
1.36%
PETRO
0.51%
ENERG
0.46%
FIN
0.28%
CONS
0.27%
AUTO
0.22%
ETRON
0.12%
HELTH
0.05%
HHOLD
0.00%
HOT
0.00%
INS
0.00%
STEEL
0.00%
COM
- 0.02%
PROP
- 0.04%
AGRI
- 0.07%
COMUN
- 0.12%
CONMT
- 0.20%
FOOD
- 0.68%
BANK
- 0.70%
ENTER
- 1.53%

P ric e

Fig 4 Scatter Plot by Sector

Ea rning

MoM
TRANS
2.81%
HOT
2.79%
CONMT
1.63%
PETRO
1.52%
ENERG
0.89%
ETRON
0.70%
FIN
0.43%
COMUN
0.29%
HELTH
0.23%
STEEL
0.00%
COM
- 0.09%
FOOD
- 0.55%
HHOLD
- 0.79%
PROP
- 1.18%
AUTO
- 1.45%
INS
- 2.17%
BANK
- 2.61%
CONS
- 2.85%
AGRI
- 3.62%
ENTER
- 6.85%

WoW
HOT
PROP
CONS
PETRO
COMUN
AGRI
CONMT
ETRON
FIN
HELTH
HHOLD
INS
STEEL
ENERG
COM
AUTO
BANK
TRANS
FOOD
ENTER

0.90%
0.54%
0.16%
0.13%
0.09%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
- 0.16%
- 0.21%
- 0.39%
- 0.39%
- 0.95%
- 1.74%
- 2.70%

EPS %chg
1.0%

MoM
HOT
CONS
ENERG
FIN
PETRO
HELTH
CONMT
COM
COMUN
AUTO
PROP
AGRI
ETRON
HHOLD
BANK
FOOD
INS
TRANS
ENTER
STEEL

5.03%
1.50%
0.94%
0.78%
0.64%
0.05%
0.01%
- 0.28%
- 0.69%
- 0.81%
- 1.03%
- 1.10%
- 1.21%
- 1.62%
- 1.62%
- 2.95%
- 3.08%
- 6.28%
- 11.33%
- 13.82%

Source: Bloomberg, 15 June 2015

HOT

PROP

CONS
COMUN

PETRO

ETRON
0.0%

CONMT

TP%chg
ENERG

COM
BANK
AUTO

-1.0%
-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

Source: Bloomberg, 15 June 2015

Fig 5 Thailand Revisions: TOP 20 Positive and Negative Revisions


Ta rge t P ric e
WoW
WORK
AOT
BJCHI
SVI
TISCO
PTT
ASP
HEMRAJ
CHG
MTLS
BTSGIF
PTTGC
BJC
AP
STANLY
CK
ROBINS
CPALL
SCC
BECL

5.60%
2.75%
2.25%
1.97%
1.44%
1.30%
1.23%
1.14%
1.07%
0.98%
0.87%
0.72%
0.69%
0.58%
0.56%
0.53%
0.43%
0.43%
0.12%
0.11%

MoM
TASCO
31.21%
RCL
12.82%
PYLON
10.71%
BTSGIF
9.51%
SVI
7.88%
WORK
6.21%
AOT
5.26%
ASK
5.26%
ROJNA
4.30%
STPI
3.86%
CENTEL
3.50%
BH
3.32%
MTLS
3.28%
PTT
2.63%
TOP
2.52%
TTCL
2.51%
BJCHI
2.25%
PTTGC
2.14%
KTC
2.12%
THCOM
2.05%

WoW
MCOT
- 21.26%
SIM
- 12.30%
CFRESH
- 6.84%
LHBANK
- 5.79%
JMART
- 5.00%
MONO
- 4.27%
RS
- 3.80%
PSL
- 3.19%
CBG
- 2.93%
SCCC
- 2.62%
HMPRO
- 2.24%
BAY
- 1.53%
KKP
- 1.09%
TUF
- 1.01%
BEC
- 1.00%
GLOBAL
- 0.94%
CPF
- 0.87%
KBANK
- 0.87%
QH
- 0.84%
TCAP
- 0.73%

Ea rning
MoM
MCOT
- 26.95%
SRICHA
- 19.14%
MONO
- 18.00%
LOXLEY
- 14.29%
SINGER
- 13.70%
MK
- 13.16%
BMCL
- 12.66%
SIM
- 12.30%
BEC
- 10.13%
BCH
- 9.52%
PS
- 8.67%
AIT
- 8.12%
CFRESH
- 6.84%
ITD
- 6.76%
RS
- 6.50%
NOK
- 5.71%
KTB
- 5.60%
TK
- 5.56%
JMART
- 5.00%
STEC
- 4.94%

WoW
WHA
TRUE
AMATA
PYLON
BJCHI
MEGA
BJC
TRUEIF
ERW
CENTEL
IVL
CPN
ANAN
BCP
AOT
HEMRAJ
BANPU
ROBINS
PTT
THCOM

MoM
12.16%
3.93%
3.18%
1.87%
1.35%
1.30%
1.23%
1.07%
0.93%
0.90%
0.84%
0.74%
0.53%
0.45%
0.43%
0.32%
0.29%
0.10%
0.08%
0.05%

TK
STPI
IRPC
WHA
TASCO
AMATA
CENTEL
SF
CBG
KTC
SAMTEL
SPCG
AIT
BA
HEMRAJ
IFEC
BH
GUNKUL
CPN
TOP

16.27%
11.53%
10.70%
9.93%
9.05%
5.93%
5.72%
5.17%
3.73%
3.43%
2.93%
2.42%
2.11%
2.02%
1.95%
1.92%
1.90%
1.62%
1.49%
1.46%

WoW
MONO
- 121.43%
THAI
- 18.34%
ESSO
- 15.69%
MCOT
- 11.60%
JMART
- 8.48%
TICON
- 6.17%
CPF
- 4.60%
WORK
- 2.76%
RS
- 2.38%
CFRESH
- 1.98%
SAT
- 1.83%
BEC
- 1.82%
TUF
- 1.07%
KBANK
- 0.78%
CPALL
- 0.75%
SAPPE
- 0.74%
INTUCH
- 0.62%
TCAP
- 0.59%
AAV
- 0.53%
KTB
- 0.50%

MoM
PSL
- 1469.2%
MONO
- 105.17%
TTA
- 68.24%
MCOT
- 25.89%
THAI
- 24.51%
NOK
- 19.51%
TMT
- 13.82%
ROJNA
- 10.83%
BEC
- 10.67%
SINGER
- 10.67%
RCL
- 8.74%
GRAMMY
- 8.11%
ESSO
- 7.99%
DCC
- 7.39%
JMART
- 7.31%
BCH
- 6.93%
MODERN
- 6.45%
WORK
- 6.25%
CPF
- 6.25%
RS
- 6.16%

Source: Bloomberg, 15 June 2015

16 June 2015

Tracking Fundamental Momentum

Fig 6 WoW Changes in EPS and Target prices


Earning

Stock
SIM
LHBANK
PSL
SCCC
BAY
GLOBAL
QH
SIRI
TMB
MEGA
PS
AMATA
SPCG
BTS
DTAC
GFPT

Target Price (-/0) Earning (+/0)


TP
EPS
Stock
TP
-12.30%
0.00% DEMCO
-0.07%
-5.79%
0.00% TOP
-0.06%
-3.19%
0.00% KSL
-0.02%
-2.62%
0.00% TRUEIF
0.00%
-1.53%
0.04% THCOM
0.00%
-0.94%
0.00% TRUE
0.00%
-0.84%
0.00% BCP
0.00%
-0.67%
0.00% BANPU
0.00%
-0.55%
0.00% CENTEL
0.00%
-0.52%
1.30% ERW
0.00%
-0.49%
0.00% IVL
0.00%
-0.42%
3.18% CPN
0.00%
-0.26%
0.00% WHA
0.00%
-0.21%
0.00% PYLON
0.00%
-0.10%
0.00% ANAN
0.00%
-0.07%
0.00%

EPS
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
1.07%
0.05%
3.93%
0.45%
0.29%
0.90%
0.93%
0.84%
0.74%
12.16%
1.87%
0.53%

Stock
AOT
BJCHI
PTT

Target
TP
2.75%
2.25%
1.30%

Price (+) Earning (+)


EPS
Stock
TP
0.43% HEMRAJ
1.14%
1.35% BJC
0.69%
0.08% ROBINS
0.43%

EPS
0.32%
1.23%
0.10%

TP

Stock
MCOT
CFRESH
JMART
MONO
RS
CBG
HMPRO
KKP
TUF
BEC

Target Price (-) Earning (-)


TP
EPS
Stock
TP
-21.26%
-11.60% CPF
-0.87%
-6.84%
-1.98% KBANK
-0.87%
-5.00%
-8.48% TCAP
-0.73%
-4.27% -121.43% PTTEP
-0.50%
-3.80%
-2.38% SCB
-0.50%
-2.93%
-0.21% KTB
-0.50%
-2.24%
-0.34% SAPPE
-0.42%
-1.09%
-0.25% BBL
-0.33%
-1.01%
-1.07% AAV
-0.07%
-1.00%
-1.82%

EPS
-4.60%
-0.78%
-0.59%
-0.41%
-0.37%
-0.50%
-0.74%
-0.16%
-0.53%

Stock
WORK
SVI
TISCO
ASP
CHG
MTLS
BTSGIF
PTTGC
AP
STANLY

Target Price (+/0) Earning (-/0)


TP
EPS
Stock
TP
5.60%
-2.76% CK
0.53%
1.97%
0.00% CPALL
0.43%
1.44%
-0.14% SCC
0.12%
1.23%
0.00% BECL
0.11%
1.07%
0.00% BIGC
0.07%
0.98%
0.00% SAT
0.00%
0.87%
0.00% INTUCH
0.00%
0.72%
0.00% ESSO
0.00%
0.58%
0.00% TICON
0.00%
0.56%
0.00% THAI
0.00%

EPS
0.00%
-0.75%
0.00%
0.00%
-0.09%
-1.83%
-0.62%
-15.69%
-6.17%
-18.34%

Source: Bloomberg, 15 June 2015

16 June 2015

Tracking Fundamental Momentum

Fig 7 Comparable consensus EPS


S e c tor
2 2 - Ma y- 15 2 9 - Ma y- 15
Agribusiness
1.18
1.18
GFPT
1.18
1.18
Automotive
1.52
1.52
STANLY
15.67
15.67
SAT
1.81
1.81
AH
1.53
1.53
PCSGH
0.72
0.73
Banking
2.44
2.44
BBL
19.41
19.35
KBANK
20.46
20.46
SCB
16.32
16.35
TISCO
5.80
5.80
KKP
4.03
4.03
TCAP
4.38
4.38
BAY
2.53
2.55
KTB
2.41
2.39
TMB
0.21
0.21
LHBANK
0.09
0.09
Commerce
0.94
0.94
BIGC
9.87
9.88
ROBINS
2.03
2.03
BJC
1.38
1.38
COL
1.55
1.55
CPALL
1.46
1.46
SINGER
1.15
1.08
MC
1.01
1.01
MAKRO
1.22
1.22
BEAUTY
0.13
0.13
MEGA
0.77
0.77
GLOBAL
0.25
0.25
HMPRO
0.29
0.29
KAMART
0.33
0.33
LOXLEY
0.19
0.19
Communication
1.62
1.62
ADVANC
13.60
13.60
DTAC
4.44
4.44
INTUCH
5.32
5.31
TRUEIF
0.84
0.84
AIT
3.53
3.53
SAMART
1.71
1.71
THCOM
2.03
2.03
SAMTEL
1.36
1.36
JMART
0.78
0.78
JAS
0.42
0.42
SIM
0.18
0.18
TRUE
0.19
0.19
Construction Materials
4.62
4.61
SCC
33.57
33.38
SCCC
23.69
23.69
TASCO
0.88
0.96
DCC
0.20
0.20
DRT
0.33
0.33
Construction Services
0.76
0.78
BJCHI
0.76
0.76
SRICHA
3.11
3.11
STPI
1.74
1.84
TTCL
1.30
1.30
STEC
0.94
0.94
SEAFCO
0.88
0.88
CK
0.90
0.92
ITD
0.16
0.17

5 - Jun- 15 12 - Jun- 15
1.17
1.17
1.17
1.17
1.53
1.53
15.67
15.67
1.81
1.77
1.58
1.58
0.74
0.74
2.42
2.41
19.32
19.29
20.32
20.16
16.26
16.20
5.79
5.78
4.02
4.01
4.38
4.36
2.54
2.54
2.38
2.37
0.21
0.21
0.09
0.09
0.94
0.94
9.88
9.88
2.04
2.05
1.38
1.40
1.55
1.55
1.46
1.45
1.03
1.03
0.99
0.99
1.22
1.22
0.12
0.12
0.77
0.78
0.25
0.25
0.29
0.29
0.31
0.31
0.19
0.19
1.61
1.61
13.59
13.59
4.41
4.41
5.30
5.26
0.84
0.85
3.53
3.53
1.72
1.72
2.03
2.03
1.40
1.40
0.79
0.72
0.42
0.42
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.19
4.61
4.61
33.46
33.46
23.69
23.69
0.96
0.96
0.19
0.19
0.33
0.33
0.77
0.77
0.74
0.75
3.02
3.02
1.94
1.94
1.29
1.29
0.92
0.92
0.86
0.86
0.85
0.85
0.16
0.16

% MO M
- 13.88
- 13.88
- 1.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
- 3.28
- 1.82
- 1.02
- 2.24
- 0.59
0.03
0.50
- 0.11
- 0.59
- 4.45
- 4.98
- 4.21
0.02
- 0.71
0.69
- 0.58
- 5.67
1.39
- 10.67
- 2.66
0.91
- 3.88
0.00
0.00
- 1.02
- 8.28
- 2.63
- 0.74
- 0.03
- 1.05
- 0.56
0.00
2.11
- 1.26
0.20
1.08
- 7.06
- 2.98
- 7.33
- 5.32
0.38
- 0.08
- 0.44
29.57
- 7.39
0.00
0.72
- 3.26
- 7.37
12.50
- 1.00
- 6.22
- 2.95
- 3.73
0.00

2 0 16
1.33
1.33
1.73
18.73
1.98
1.77
0.80
2.71
21.01
22.71
17.98
6.31
4.88
4.78
3.02
2.66
0.25
0.10
1.12
11.12
2.44
1.63
1.95
1.82
1.16
1.18
1.46
0.16
0.96
0.31
0.33
0.34
0.23
1.85
15.27
4.73
6.02
0.97
3.19
1.91
2.31
1.58
0.86
0.58
0.19
0.28
5.02
36.35
25.73
1.07
0.21
0.38
0.84
0.89
2.66
1.78
2.03
1.06
0.95
1.00
0.19

% Y oY
13.64
13.64
13.10
19.49
11.39
11.82
8.01
12.36
8.91
12.65
10.96
9.20
21.71
9.62
18.88
12.24
20.00
10.99
19.48
12.57
19.06
16.63
26.05
25.41
12.33
19.41
19.82
29.84
22.82
24.00
12.76
8.71
21.62
14.89
12.37
7.30
14.40
14.29
- 9.45
11.21
13.79
12.83
18.95
37.35
9.60
49.19
8.89
8.65
8.61
11.31
13.30
16.06
9.45
17.69
- 11.67
- 7.86
57.65
15.78
10.63
17.63
19.50

Note: All data derived from Bloomberg


Source: Bloomberg, 15 June 2015

16 June 2015

Tracking Fundamental Momentum

Fig 7 Comparable consensus EPS


S e c tor
Energy
PTT
PTTEP
EGCO
GLOW
TOP
RATCH
BCP
BANPU
SPCG
ESSO
GUNKUL
DEMCO
EA
TTW
CKP
IRPC
Entertain
BEC
MCOT
WORK
MAJOR
RS
VGI
MONO
GRAMMY
Electronic
DELTA
KCE
HANA
SMT
SVI
Finance
AEONTS
KTC
ASK
MBKET
SAWAD
TK
THANI
ASP
MTLS
Food
TUF
OISHI
M
TVO
CPF
SAPPE
KSL
CBG
MINT
PM
ICHI
CFRESH
Health Care
BDMS
BH
CHG
BCH

2 2 - Ma y- 15 2 9 - Ma y- 15
3.10
3.10
30.98
31.09
7.94
7.96
14.68
14.50
6.00
5.98
4.95
4.94
4.57
4.48
3.89
3.89
1.44
1.38
2.48
2.48
0.48
0.48
0.68
0.68
0.88
0.88
0.83
0.83
0.75
0.75
0.08
0.08
0.26
0.26
0.48
0.48
2.12
2.11
0.73
0.65
0.64
0.64
1.46
1.45
0.55
0.55
0.18
0.18
0.06
0.07
- 0.80
- 0.80
2.36
2.35
5.22
5.22
3.93
3.93
3.17
3.10
1.08
1.08
0.33
0.33
1.14
1.15
10.51
10.51
8.06
8.06
2.47
2.47
2.23
2.23
1.18
1.19
0.51
0.51
0.35
0.35
0.46
0.46
0.41
0.41
1.23
1.23
1.32
1.32
3.73
3.73
2.59
2.59
2.11
2.07
1.32
1.33
1.54
1.54
0.39
0.39
1.42
1.42
1.26
1.26
0.80
0.80
1.02
1.02
1.01
1.01
0.44
0.44
0.39
0.39
1.42
1.42
1.26
1.26
0.80
0.80

5 - Jun- 15 12 - Jun - 15
3.11
3.11
31.26
31.29
8.00
7.97
14.46
14.46
6.08
6.08
4.94
4.94
4.48
4.48
3.81
3.82
1.38
1.39
2.54
2.54
0.48
0.40
0.69
0.69
0.85
0.85
0.83
0.83
0.75
0.75
0.08
0.08
0.27
0.27
0.46
0.45
2.04
2.00
0.61
0.54
0.62
0.60
1.46
1.46
0.55
0.53
0.18
0.18
0.01
0.00
- 0.80
- 0.80
2.33
2.33
5.18
5.18
3.93
3.93
3.10
3.10
1.08
1.08
0.32
0.32
1.15
1.15
10.51
10.51
8.12
8.12
2.47
2.47
2.23
2.23
1.19
1.19
0.59
0.59
0.35
0.35
0.46
0.46
0.41
0.41
1.23
1.21
1.31
1.29
3.73
3.73
2.59
2.59
2.07
2.07
1.37
1.31
1.49
1.48
0.37
0.37
1.42
1.42
1.26
1.26
0.80
0.80
0.99
0.99
1.01
0.99
0.44
0.44
0.37
0.37
1.42
1.42
1.26
1.26
0.80
0.80

% MO M
1.12
1.59
0.46
- 2.65
1.42
2.45
- 2.07
- 0.78
- 3.89
2.63
9.13
3.77
- 2.95
- 0.60
0.00
1.35
8.47
- 11.01
- 11.62
- 22.82
- 3.59
0.55
- 7.77
0.00
- 75.86
- 8.11
- 1.76
- 1.39
- 1.03
- 3.19
0.00
- 3.30
- 9.53
0.00
3.26
0.00
0.00
- 50.19
- 1.17
0.00
0.00
0.00
- 1.69
- 2.97
0.00
- 0.12
0.29
- 3.11
- 4.48
- 5.13
3.95
0.08
0.00
0.81
0.00
0.12
0.00
3.21
- 1.92
- 12.60

2 0 16
3.55
35.39
9.24
15.83
6.10
5.30
5.25
4.01
1.94
2.87
0.48
1.21
1.02
1.37
0.72
0.08
0.35
0.53
2.15
0.60
0.96
1.69
0.68
0.18
0.09
- 0.53
2.57
5.64
4.44
3.42
0.83
0.42
1.33
11.53
9.15
2.80
2.28
1.60
0.81
0.42
0.51
0.52
1.44
1.50
3.33
2.96
2.16
1.68
1.80
0.43
1.67
1.48
0.85
1.17
1.02
0.51
0.65
5.23
0.06
0.27

% Y oY
14.39
13.09
15.98
9.50
0.44
7.33
16.97
5.00
39.65
13.00
18.36
76.31
19.20
64.83
- 3.88
5.33
30.86
19.07
7.25
10.54
59.50
15.25
27.77
- 0.56
3033.33
- 165.88
10.00
8.80
12.98
10.26
- 23.15
31.06
15.47
9.70
12.73
13.59
2.47
34.12
37.10
18.57
11.52
28.43
18.91
16.09
- 10.57
14.04
4.29
28.94
21.24
15.68
18.14
17.53
6.92
17.61
2.53
17.30
75.95
268.74
- 94.90
- 66.67

Note: All data derived from Bloomberg


Source: Bloomberg, 15 June 2015

16 June 2015

Tracking Fundamental Momentum

Fig 7 Comparable Consensus EPS


S e c tor
Home Products
MODERN
SITHAI
IFEC
Hotel/Tourism
CENTEL
ERW
Insurance
BLA
THREL
Petrochemicals
PTTGC
IVL
Property
PS
SPALI
LPN
CPN
TICON
WHA
AMATA
AP
LH
SF
ROJNA
PYLON
MK
SC
QH
ANAN
HEMRAJ
SIRI
Steel
TMT
Transportation
AOT
BTSGIF
BECL
NOK
TTA
RCL
BA
NYT
AAV
PSL
BTS
BMCL
THAI

2 2 - Ma y- 15 2 9 - Ma y- 15
0.27
0.27
0.62
0.62
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.49
0.50
1.21
1.21
0.11
0.11
2.13
2.13
2.62
2.61
0.74
0.74
3.48
3.48
6.05
1.08
0.61
3.08
2.81
1.93
1.89
1.13
0.16
1.19
0.91
0.63
0.58
0.48
0.62
0.48
0.40
0.35
0.39
0.31
0.22
0.94
0.94
0.54
10.68
0.68
3.73
0.92
0.94
0.77
0.99
0.80
0.38
- 0.04
0.20
- 0.03
- 0.77

6.05
1.08
0.61
3.04
2.81
1.93
1.88
1.16
0.16
1.19
0.91
0.62
0.58
0.43
0.62
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.39
0.31
0.22
0.94
0.94
0.52
10.73
0.68
3.73
0.92
0.30
0.77
1.01
0.80
0.38
- 0.04
0.20
- 0.03
- 0.77

5 - Jun- 15 12 - Jun- 15
0.26
0.26
0.58
0.58
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.50
0.51
1.23
1.24
0.11
0.11
2.12
2.12
2.60
2.60
0.75
0.75
3.49
3.49
6.07
1.07
0.60
3.03
2.80
1.91
1.89
1.15
0.15
1.20
0.91
0.62
0.61
0.43
0.59
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.38
0.31
0.22
0.94
0.94
0.51
10.78
0.68
3.72
0.92
0.30
0.70
1.01
0.80
0.38
- 0.18
0.20
- 0.03
- 0.81

6.07
1.08
0.61
3.03
2.80
1.91
1.91
1.08
0.17
1.23
0.91
0.62
0.61
0.43
0.60
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.38
0.31
0.22
0.94
0.94
0.51
10.82
0.68
3.72
0.92
0.30
0.70
1.01
0.80
0.38
- 0.18
0.20
- 0.03
- 0.96

% MO M
- 5.24
- 6.45
- 2.36
- 7.83
5.59
7.06
- 2.73
- 3.02
- 3.41
1.08
0.03

2 0 16
0.51
0.64
0.26
0.82
0.62
1.47
0.16
2.77
3.44
0.88
4.02

% Y oY
93.87
10.34
25.60
286.79
22.92
18.72
49.07
30.87
32.27
17.07
14.97

0.31
- 1.48
- 2.48
- 5.61
- 2.84
- 0.88
0.75
- 0.69
- 1.33
- 8.36
0.89
- 5.61
5.17
- 10.83
- 5.32
- 5.62
- 0.74
- 1.70
1.62
1.63
- 5.70
- 13.82
- 13.82
- 5.54
0.89
0.00
0.11
- 26.01
- 68.24
0.00
5.77
0.00
1.07
- 205.95
0.00
- 3.85
0.12

6.84
1.37
0.68
3.38
2.84
2.09
2.21
1.07
0.20
1.45
0.98
0.72
0.70
0.42
0.67
0.48
0.45
0.40
0.49
0.33
0.24
1.10
1.10
0.69
12.58
0.71
3.91
1.38
0.60
0.74
1.36
0.91
0.43
0.15
0.21
- 0.01
1.13

12.61
27.42
12.01
11.49
1.25
9.58
16.05
- 1.02
19.28
17.84
8.61
16.08
15.25
- 1.40
12.04
4.86
12.50
13.83
30.08
4.79
12.56
17.11
17.11
36.87
16.26
3.51
4.97
50.98
103.03
5.29
35.32
13.33
13.30
- 16.29
7.18
148.15
18.53

Note: All data derived from Bloomberg


Source: Bloomberg, 15 June 2015

16 June 2015

Tracking Fundamental Momentum

Fig 8 Comparable consensus target prices


S e c tor
15 - Ma y- 15 2 2 - Ma y- 15 2 9 - Ma y- 15
Agribusiness
15.73
15.18
15.18
GFPT
15.73
15.18
15.18
Automotive
19.71
19.67
19.27
STANLY
241.33
241.50
228.80
SAT
21.14
21.34
21.43
AH
15.68
15.90
15.90
PCSGH
9.03
8.85
8.85
Banking
28.24
27.95
27.80
BBL
209.11
208.86
206.32
KBANK
253.37
249.15
249.15
SCB
190.99
189.74
189.74
TISCO
48.05
48.05
48.05
KKP
41.53
41.53
41.46
TCAP
36.84
36.84
36.84
BAY
36.91
36.85
36.85
KTB
23.60
22.83
22.33
TMB
2.92
2.92
2.89
LHBANK
1.50
1.52
1.52
Commerc e
27.81
27.86
27.92
BIGC
229.57
227.96
227.96
ROBINS
55.50
55.12
54.70
BJC
42.59
42.59
42.59
COL
60.10
59.35
59.35
CPALL
48.64
49.13
49.69
SINGER
16.37
14.57
13.83
MC
17.36
17.45
17.39
MAKRO
37.17
37.17
37.30
BEAUTY
4.57
4.57
4.57
MEGA
21.85
21.85
21.85
GLOBAL
10.58
10.63
10.63
HMPRO
8.70
8.70
8.52
KAMART
7.50
7.50
7.50
LOXLEY
4.90
4.90
4.90
Communication
34.48
34.58
34.60
ADVANC
256.93
257.41
257.33
DTAC
95.77
95.46
95.85
INTUCH
95.09
95.68
95.68
TRUEIF
13.76
13.82
13.88
AIT
41.83
41.83
40.38
SAMART
35.21
35.92
35.92
THCOM
48.35
48.35
49.34
SAMTEL
28.60
28.60
28.60
JMART
12.50
12.50
12.50
JAS
7.21
7.11
7.11
SIM
2.83
2.83
2.83
TRUE
12.11
12.21
12.19
Construction Materials
79.49
79.67
80.73
SCC
569.48
571.09
573.74
SCCC
421.00
421.00
421.00
TASCO
17.30
17.30
22.70
DCC
3.97
3.97
3.91
DRT
5.35
5.35
5.35
Construction Servic es
17.88
17.32
17.41
BJCHI
8.99
8.99
8.99
SRICHA
35.70
30.70
28.87
STPI
22.41
22.18
23.28
TTCL
44.88
46.00
46.00
STEC
26.04
25.53
25.53
SEAFCO
13.15
13.29
13.29
CK
31.15
29.97
29.98
ITD
8.93
8.33
8.33

5 - Jun- 15 12 - Jun- 15
15.18
15.16
15.18
15.16
19.38
19.42
232.20
233.50
21.43
21.43
15.90
15.90
8.85
8.85
27.70
27.51
205.79
205.10
246.57
244.44
189.23
188.29
48.05
48.74
41.33
40.88
36.84
36.57
36.72
36.16
22.39
22.28
2.89
2.87
1.52
1.43
27.79
27.79
228.26
228.42
55.01
55.25
41.74
42.03
59.35
59.35
49.31
49.52
14.13
14.13
17.39
17.39
37.30
37.30
4.57
4.57
21.85
21.74
10.63
10.53
8.52
8.33
7.50
7.50
4.20
4.20
34.62
34.58
257.33
257.33
95.68
95.58
95.68
95.68
13.88
13.88
38.44
38.44
35.92
35.92
49.34
49.34
28.60
28.60
12.50
11.88
7.11
7.11
2.83
2.48
12.25
12.25
80.94
80.79
577.09
577.77
413.33
402.50
22.70
22.70
3.91
3.91
5.35
5.35
17.32
17.37
8.99
9.19
28.87
28.87
23.28
23.28
46.00
46.00
24.75
24.75
13.29
13.29
29.98
30.14
8.33
8.33

% MO M
- 11.44
- 11.44
- 1.64
- 3.78
1.52
1.40
- 1.94
- 2.21
- 1.47
- 3.05
- 1.05
0.04
- 0.80
- 0.40
- 1.03
- 5.88
- 1.37
- 0.46
0.27
- 1.97
- 1.14
- 1.98
- 3.46
4.78
- 13.70
0.19
0.33
1.60
- 5.51
- 1.98
- 5.22
- 18.48
- 14.29
0.10
0.09
- 0.10
- 0.19
0.89
- 8.12
- 1.36
2.05
- 2.56
- 16.49
- 1.39
- 13.53
2.02
2.03
1.28
- 2.68
46.93
- 1.39
0.00
- 5.09
- 1.60
- 24.03
3.86
2.51
- 10.58
1.04
- 4.50
- 8.65

Note: All data derived from Bloomberg


Source: Bloomberg, 15 June 2015

16 June 2015

Tracking Fundamental Momentum

Fig 8 Comparable consensus target prices


S e c tor
Energy
PTT
PTTEP
EGCO
GLOW
TOP
RATCH
BCP
BANPU
SPCG
ESSO
GUNKUL
DEMCO
EA
TTW
CKP
IRPC
Entertain
BEC
MCOT
WORK
MAJOR
RS
VGI
MONO
GRAMMY
Elec tronic
DELTA
KCE
HANA
SMT
SVI
Financ e
AEONTS
KTC
ASK
MBKET
SAWAD
TK
THANI
ASP
MTLS
Food
TUF
OISHI
M
TVO
CPF
SAPPE
KSL
CBG
MINT
PM
ICHI
CFRESH
Health Care
BDMS
BH
CHG
BCH

15 - Ma y- 15 2 2 - Ma y- 15 2 9 - Ma y- 15
43.10
43.13
43.23
375.15
375.50
377.68
127.60
126.70
126.92
173.82
174.16
173.81
89.95
89.95
89.95
56.66
58.17
58.13
64.82
64.82
64.91
37.69
37.94
37.94
31.25
31.04
30.69
32.90
32.90
32.70
6.18
6.18
6.18
30.27
30.27
30.08
16.73
16.73
16.73
24.64
24.64
24.64
12.63
12.63
12.63
3.31
3.31
3.31
4.54
4.60
4.60
14.73
14.06
14.05
42.91
38.63
38.66
16.21
15.77
15.17
38.56
38.56
40.47
35.49
35.49
35.59
18.77
17.91
18.30
5.55
5.42
5.42
5.28
5.28
4.94
17.47
17.47
17.47
33.07
32.99
33.00
74.64
74.64
74.64
54.75
54.70
54.50
45.47
45.06
45.06
10.40
10.40
10.40
4.52
4.49
4.58
21.10
21.31
21.24
133.40
133.40
133.40
107.44
111.44
109.71
26.00
26.00
26.00
27.92
27.92
27.92
44.65
44.67
44.67
12.60
12.60
12.13
4.09
4.08
4.08
5.43
5.43
5.43
20.32
20.78
20.78
27.23
27.39
27.28
24.52
24.08
24.08
85.38
85.38
85.38
67.46
67.46
67.46
24.96
24.75
24.75
29.79
30.45
29.98
35.90
35.90
35.90
5.48
5.47
5.47
42.52
44.02
44.02
35.60
35.60
35.79
12.00
12.00
12.00
24.34
24.34
24.34
11.70
11.70
11.70
17.04
17.07
17.10
22.47
22.47
22.49
158.00
161.00
162.11
2.08
2.08
2.08
8.08
7.60
7.53

5 - Jun- 15 12 - Jun- 15
43.29
43.49
380.05
385.00
126.48
125.85
173.81
173.81
89.95
89.95
58.13
58.09
64.91
64.91
37.94
37.94
30.69
30.69
31.96
31.88
5.97
5.97
30.08
30.08
16.11
16.10
24.73
24.73
12.63
12.63
3.31
3.31
4.60
4.60
13.93
13.72
38.95
38.56
15.04
11.84
38.79
40.96
35.30
35.30
18.24
17.55
5.42
5.42
4.53
4.33
17.47
17.47
33.26
33.30
74.64
74.64
55.60
55.60
45.39
45.39
10.40
10.40
4.78
4.88
21.13
21.19
132.33
132.33
109.71
109.71
27.37
27.37
27.92
27.92
43.65
43.65
11.90
11.90
4.04
4.04
5.43
5.50
20.78
20.98
27.26
27.08
24.08
23.83
85.38
85.38
67.46
67.46
24.75
24.75
29.98
29.72
35.90
35.75
5.43
5.43
44.02
42.73
35.79
35.79
12.00
12.00
24.06
24.06
11.70
10.90
17.07
17.08
22.42
22.42
163.25
163.25
2.06
2.08
7.31
7.31

% MO M
0.03
- 8.65
1.04
- 1.60
- 0.32
0.00
2.53
0.14
0.95
- 3.49
- 5.26
- 11.82
- 0.06
- 2.71
0.38
0.00
1.66
- 6.77
1.55
- 12.86
- 7.24
0.58
3.09
- 5.27
- 4.73
- 11.50
3.17
0.00
4.97
1.55
- 0.18
0.00
- 0.45
5.80
- 1.37
2.12
2.76
0.00
- 2.45
- 15.00
- 1.22
0.00
0.27
2.28
- 1.89
0.00
- 1.20
0.51
1.49
- 1.37
- 1.00
3.53
0.11
0.00
- 0.47
0.21
4.46
- 0.51
5.97
- 0.68

Note: All data derived from Bloomberg


Source: Bloomberg, 15 June 2015

16 June 2015

Tracking Fundamental Momentum

Fig 8 Comparable consensus target price


S e c tor
Home Produc ts
MODERN
SITHAI
IFEC
Hotel/Tourism
CENTEL
ERW
Insuranc e
BLA
THREL
Petroc hemic als
PTTGC
IVL
Property
PS
SPALI
LPN
CPN
TICON
WHA
AMATA
AP
LH
SF
ROJNA
PYLON
MK
SC
QH
ANAN
HEMRAJ
SIRI
Steel
TMT
Transportation
AOT
BTSGIF
BECL
NOK
TTA
RCL
BA
NYT
AAV
PSL
BTS
BMCL
THAI

15 - Ma y- 15 2 2 - Ma y- 15 2 9 - Ma y- 15
8.68
8.68
8.61
11.63
11.63
11.15
3.21
3.21
3.21
15.60
15.60
15.60
17.55
17.73
17.73
39.63
40.13
40.13
5.54
5.54
5.54
44.84
43.90
43.87
54.33
53.06
53.01
17.93
17.93
17.93
46.76
47.09
47.09
68.64
69.31
69.31
26.28
26.28
26.28
9.55
9.50
9.49
35.37
34.03
33.23
25.35
25.05
24.75
21.41
21.41
21.27
56.75
56.84
56.84
18.04
18.03
18.03
3.75
3.75
3.80
20.54
20.69
20.69
8.23
8.26
8.26
10.50
10.45
10.47
8.25
8.25
8.25
8.79
8.79
9.16
8.97
8.97
9.93
3.80
3.80
3.30
3.77
3.77
3.85
3.96
3.93
3.91
4.56
4.56
4.56
4.40
4.37
4.37
2.14
2.10
2.11
10.75
10.75
10.75
10.75
10.75
10.75
16.45
16.46
16.63
316.48
318.88
322.75
10.08
10.08
10.73
43.49
43.49
43.49
16.10
15.18
15.18
16.40
15.50
15.63
11.70
11.70
13.20
25.78
25.78
25.97
19.25
19.29
19.29
6.01
6.01
5.98
11.36
11.26
11.26
11.00
11.00
11.21
1.82
1.80
1.59
13.42
13.42
13.42

5 - Jun- 15 12 - Jun- 15
8.61
8.61
11.15
11.15
3.21
3.21
15.60
15.60
18.04
18.04
41.01
41.01
5.54
5.54
43.87
43.87
53.01
53.01
17.93
17.93
47.23
47.48
69.61
70.11
26.28
26.28
9.44
9.44
32.47
32.31
24.39
24.39
20.90
20.90
57.06
57.06
17.78
17.78
3.80
3.80
20.69
20.60
8.27
8.32
10.42
10.42
8.25
8.25
9.16
9.16
9.93
9.93
3.30
3.30
3.81
3.81
3.83
3.80
4.40
4.40
4.40
4.45
2.08
2.07
10.75
10.75
10.75
10.75
16.69
16.92
324.21
333.13
10.94
11.03
43.49
43.54
15.18
15.18
15.63
15.63
13.20
13.20
25.97
25.97
19.30
19.30
5.98
5.97
11.26
10.90
11.20
11.17
1.59
1.59
13.42
13.42

% MO M
- 1.53
- 16.76
- 5.64
0.00
3.93
- 0.73
5.20
- 1.72
- 0.89
- 1.76
2.13
- 1.33
3.03
- 2.02
- 0.02
- 8.55
- 6.59
- 1.72
0.66
- 3.79
3.69
0.70
0.57
- 5.87
0.00
4.30
10.71
- 13.16
1.60
- 5.01
- 2.22
0.59
0.00
- 2.57
0.99
0.00
3.40
6.02
- 0.12
- 12.70
- 4.73
12.82
1.47
0.26
- 1.21
- 20.01
0.59
- 12.66

Note: All data derived from Bloomberg


Source: Bloomberg, 15 June 2015
Remark: Comparable consensus EPS specific stock at least 3contributors

16 June 2015

10

Tracking Fundamental Momentum

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16 June 2015

11

Tracking Fundamental Momentum