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Practical Part

Translation

HISTOIRE DES RELATIONS INTERATIONALES
DE 1945 À NOS JOURS

Tome 2, 15e édition

Par
Jean-Baptiste DUROSELLE
André KASPI

600 dead. the twin towers of the World Trade Centre in New York destroyed. and it will not disappear in the next decades. a warship of the U.S. economic consequences cannot be finished. More than ever.The aftermath of September 11 The attacks of September 11th started a new period in the history of international relations. a traumatized country and a scene of horror that the whole world followed on TV screens. the only superpower: "the indispensable nation. The consequences of that tragedy are upsetting: at least 3. one of the wings of the Pentagon in Washington damaged. during ten years. It is an overwhelming responsibility for Washington and a worrying situation for all humanity. threats of all kinds warned Americans that the worst was not impossible. The USA war on terrorism Historians will not forget to show that terrorism has existed. the United States attracted the attention of the world. The United States was. bombs hit the embassies in Tanzania and in Kenya. In 1996. the American garrison Dharan in Saudi Arabia was attacked. In 2000. . The list of human. Navy exploded in the port of Aden in Yemen. It is also true that the United States was already hit in the last decade of the twentieth century. In 1998." Its decisions. The first attack of the World Trade Centre was in 1993 and it resulted in 6 dead and 1042 injured. its strategy and its relations with other states are in the news and largely determine the future of the planet. In addition. political. maybe a long time.

pretending that none is innocent. Terrorists command “an asymmetric warfare” where they seek above all the effect of media and shocking images that cause terror. A country attacked another State. After several weeks Osama bin Laden recognized that it was Al Qaeda organization." Since then. It uses both sophisticated and rudimentary weapons.Terrorism In these conditions. Is it possible therefore to define terrorism? It is not enough to say that terrorists are also fighters. rational or irrational goals. human bombs that by committing suicide escape judgments and become "Martyrs". Henceforth. for some among these nations. Contrary to the words of President George W. is it possible to talk about Pearl Harbour? The differences far outweigh the similarities. There are kamikazes. it makes use of the most sophisticated technology. . This is a new factor in international relations. aircraft pilots. it also embodies the hidden and hateful face of globalization. In 1945. It is primarily a way and a method to scare. Sixty years later. Bush. Terrorism is not a doctrine that can be placed at the same level as Communism. nation states are required to fight or. The targets were military and the declaration of war followed. Nazism or the Third World. no State assumes responsibility of the attacks. which prepared and carried out the bombings. legally it was not "an act of war. that all leaders treated movements of resistance and independence in the twentieth century as terrorists by their opponents before becoming almost respectable men of government. It does not care about moral considerations: it executes innocent people. suicide bombs. bomb vehicle drivers. the term terrorism suddenly emerged. to impose a will. the Navy and the Air Force of Japan destroyed the American Pacific Fleet. murderers who kill and maim thousands. such as the internet. It requests flawless obedience from its servants until the supreme sacrifice (death). and who resort to the most violent means. to support terrorist movements that have no territories. computers and electronics. whose main objectives are often unclear.

but for what it is.) the distraught search for causes. the "dirty bombs" that according to experts would not be difficult to make? Are the hackers to be dreadful since they could penetrate the computer system and could create irreparable disruption in daily life? Nothing is impossible or unthinkable. The philosopher Pascal Bruckner is right to write in Le Monde of September 25th. Do they want to trigger an American response in Afghanistan hoping that the United States army would find a new Vietnam? Are they trying to chase Americans from the Middle East? Do they hope to switch to their own camp Pakistan and Saudi Arabia? Do they use the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to rally Muslim-Arab opinion? As many questions have contradictory and uncertain answers.. many of his fellow compatriots and foreigners judged him as unable to fulfil his task. Although it was hard for him to be elected president. No one better than George W. 2001): "(. even if it is predicted that no victory on terrorism will be definite. including his cleverness. The United States was attacked. Do they want to show to the world the USA is not invincible? However. of humiliation exempts the act of horror and leads to the temptation of indulgence. The conclusion is that these fundamental values of this society should be defended. The threat could be biological: the smallpox virus that was eradicated since 1977 suddenly becomes a potential weapon. Americans reacted as their grandparents responded in 1941. It is also chemical: the anthrax came from nowhere and killed five people in the USA earlier in autumn. The motivations of terrorists remain unclear." After the attacks of September 11th. September 11th attacks weakened the military and economic power of America. the use of radioactive materials. What about the attack on nuclear facilities.. Bush has expressed this determination. not for what it does. of explanation through despair. his political skills. that its fight is similar to that of all other democracies and that no compromise is possible with the forces of evil. The war will be total and it should be won.. even if it is from good intentions goes wrong: the culture of excuse. and his understanding of the .Terrorism is not limited to the use of weapons and to the use of violence.

he said: "Our nation is at war. (.. The US urges the other countries to follow because the fight will be worldwide and will need time. . This is not the Cold War... he undergone a complete metamorphosis.. He knows how to talk to his citizens.world seemed to be limited.) Iran (which) aggressively pursues these weapons and exposes terror. In fact." Thus. that its political capital is unreachable. It is an urgent necessity. but he also talks about the rest of humanity. To make war against an elusive enemy that is omnipresent and that is always rising from the ashes. it is vulnerable. the appearance of this unwavering patriotism strengthens his influence. three countries constitute "the axis of evil..) Our war against terrorism is just beginning. because the Soviet Union no longer exists and no State is occupying its place.) Iraq (which) continues to flaunt its hostility to America and to support terror”. North Korea "(which) is armed with missiles and weapons of mass destruction (. armed to threaten the peace in the world". the President consolidates the national unity. The United States alone has the means to make war against terrorism. Since September 20th. 2002). It has discovered that because of its military power. and the civilized world faces unprecedented dangers (. that its economic capital may be seriously hurt. to unite all parts of a balkanized. our economy is in recession. few things could be done so that the White House or a nuclear station would not be attacked. Bush talks about a "crusade" which means in the American context a fight with no mercy. uncertain and multicultural society. Its hegemony creates hatred and attracts attacks. the United States is more than ever the leader of the free world. The United States was hit in the heart. its economic domination and its political influence. he warned by saying: "you're either with us. but not a war of religions or a clash of civilizations. George W. The President addresses primarily Americans. a very long time.. More than ever. to boost their morale. In his speech about the State of the Union (January 29th. The International configuration has no equivalent in history. or against us.

Americans sent Special Forces commandos in association with the Northern Alliance forces fought several years against the Taliban. the city of Mazar-e-Sharif is "liberated" and on 13th Kabul is under the control of the Northern Alliance soldiers. led by the desire to make revenge. nuclear deterrence was the essence of that strategy. the result of the most modern technology. Yemen and Sudan. When their navy. had decided to hit harshly and without choosing wisely its targets. On November 10th. the 2nd phase of the war against terrorism. Americans have avoided falling into the trap of a new Vietnam. which they accuse of making weapons of mass destruction and supporting terrorism? Alternatively. At most. the precision (which does not exclude some unfortunate blunders called collateral damage) and intensity of strikes are behind the success. Will the United States attack Iraq. Nevertheless. At the time of the Cold War. the international action of the United States calls for a new military doctrine. will it attack Somalia. Their weapons are extremely efficient. their air force or their special forces are involved. Their concern is futile. The military operations began on October 7th. On December 4th. Americans and . Bin Laden and Mullah Omar. the political situation has improved since the various Afghan factions agreed that Hamid Karzai preside over an interim administration. which protect terrorist group members? The Pentagon strategists develop their plans. On December 6th. In Europe. the political and diplomatic considerations do hold them for the time being. were not captured and sporadic fighting continued.The choice of a strategy The choice of a strategy took three weeks. his accomplice and his protector. the Taliban in Kandahar negotiated their surrender and their plan sunk into oblivion. In November. They create at the same time confidence for Washington and experts prepare immediately. Afghanistan that is governed by the Taliban and that gives shelter to Bin Laden will be the first target of the American riposte. The calm was not completely restored in Afghanistan. forty Tomahawk missiles hit four Afghan cities including Kabul and then the bombing intensified. many feared that the United States.

"The war against terrorism”. However. It must take the lead. However. to track illegal networks of finance and policing infrastructure? Surely not. President Bush announces that at least 60 states harbour terrorist cells that must be dissolved. Immigration services have made mistakes." However. therefore to avoid the attacks. he affirms. it is necessary to overcome all these weaknesses by creating a department at the federal government responsible for all matters related to internal security. Is it enough to Resort to force. Therefore. on the contrary. Finally. Thus. forces will intervene to destroy them. “will not be won by the defence. it would be wrong to reduce American diplomacy to a preventive war. it is to manage and develop a set of more complex operations. it benefits. Terrorism is not the weapon of the poor or the illiterate. the United States cannot wait to be attacked to counterattack. against terrorism.S.Soviets knew that the first to deign would endure a devastating response. from the financial globalization. The department should be created and this will lead to long debates in the Congress. Bill Clinton had already considered this and did not think it would be necessary to break with the political and administrative tradition. Bush took the plunge. otherwise. George W. In addition. the U. Precisely in 1981. September 11th changed facts of the problem. Europe or Asia. closely monitor tax havens that are located in the Caribbean. the Pacific. an American report already denounced the existence of illegal or simply clandestine networks. The billionaire Bin Laden knows how to play smartly with financial mechanisms. neither President Reagan nor his successors or international organizations had considered that it was imperative to take efficient measures. because there should also be a fight against terrorism in relation to . of failing to coordinate their information and to provide intelligible reports. The FBI and the CIA were accused of failing to predict on time. The ultimate goal is to cut funding to networks like Al Qaeda. cash transfers from one country to another are used to prepare the attacks and should therefore. Terrorist movements cannot act without money. the war against terrorism is based on the efficiency of police.

The Americans. while the United States had . The North Atlantic Treaty Organization invoked Article 5 of the Atlantic Pact and declared the solidarity of its members with the United States. However. President Clinton at the end of his mandate signed the project. Bill Clinton practiced multilateralism and moved towards unilateralism and his successor has increased this trend. Bush did not try to form a strong and a stable coalition before being engaged in the conflict of Afghanistan. without prior consultation of the others. of not accepting international agreements. Unlike his father. before September 11th. the attacks and their aftermath have urged him to act alone. This is shown in the debate on the International Criminal Court. None of these questions offers simple answers. However.the political issues it raises. such as the Kyoto Protocol on greenhouse gas emissions. Despite appearances. On the contrary. "the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence" of the United States (1368 resolution). Their logic is not necessarily the same as ours. Americans led the war. if George W. Bush was accused. The plan prepared by the Pentagon to trigger an offensive attack against Iraq are not subject to prior international consultation. George W. What are the conditions that explain the emergence and the proliferation of terrorist movements? Why were attacks welcomed warmly in the Middle East? Does the diplomacy of the United States justify the American hostility? Can the gap between developed economies and those of developing countries be bridged? All of these questions deserve consideration. There is no evidence that terrorists resort to the same arguments as democratic nations. Washington has benefited from unconditional support from London and has asked for only a very limited cooperation with other allies. took the main decisions. The Security Council of the United Nations recognised on September 12th. the United States cannot avoid another question: Can the USA make war against terrorism without making a coalition and without asking to agree with their allies? Solitude or solidarity The debate started well before September 11th.

More than ever. Regardless of whether the United States was behind the origin of the UN and behind the major international organizations. He does not want American soldiers or American politicians to be brought before a court that is not American. according to them. This is one of the consequences of September 11th attacks. the superpower continues its journey in solitude. Protests here and there will not change anything. desired and elevated to the level of the political philosophy. it must maintain its independence. It would be even.shown strong reluctance. the source of its power and its influence. because it has the means to stay away. . It will not submit to any foreign authority. Bush went back on the signature of his predecessor.

even if the risk is high. The crisis reflects the failures of American society. The loans were given at a very low rate by banks and credit agencies. the uncertainty about the future creates anxiety. More than ever. When the borrower cannot pay back. The stock exchange shock caused a sharp slowdown in consumer spending. in a favourable atmosphere for free enterprise which is . The financial. although from time to time. At the same time. economic and social crisis Since 2007. Consequently. On the contrary. that is to say. Finally. It was then discovered that loans were given to borrowers with a low income and who could not pay back. Households save little or more often do not have the means to save. These loans are subprime. Therefore. neither the Middle East nor the rest of the world still knew a true peace and prosperity. In all continents. whether individuals or banking organizations. What is certain is that it broke out in 2007 in the United States. it is possible to assess its magnitude and impossible to guess its final consequences. These loans were used to finance the purchase of private houses. Meeting this demand is the objective of policies and financiers. he/she is expelled from home or from the house he has not yet finished paying and the holders of "toxic" securities. they have incorporated them into marketable securities. Homeownership is a major demand of the middle class. that they live on credit and debt is becoming their way of life. there appear encouraging signs.The world in Metamorphosis Six years after the fall of Saddam Hussein. the lenders have "securitized" these risky loans. a deep crisis shook economies and experts are still debating its origins. unemployment rises dramatically. lose their investments. in industrial production and in trade distribution. disturbing changes affected international relations. including the lower middle class whose income is extremely limited. That is to say. explosives factories could put or have already fired to death states. regions and threaten security of our planet.

the U. borderless and sensitive to trouble and to illusion. American banks were not alone to buy. Barack Obama is developing a comprehensive plan to revive the economy. This globalization “happy globalization” improved the way of life of many people. a plan which cost exceeds 800 billion dollars. Gone are the days when the power of free enterprise was praised and when government interventions were condemned and when the free market was defended. bankruptcies and government intervention. Fannie Mae (Federal National Mortgage Association) and Freddie Mac (Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation). Then. legally or illegally those "toxic" securities.against strict control and sometimes they are tempted by corruption. Only a few months before leaving the White House. public funds must come to the rescue. and a guaranteed happiness. Wall Street’s fifth investment bank. The financial capitalism became. That can be followed along the year 2008: calls for help. has consequences in the field of international relations. crisis became immediately a global crisis and globalization explains the pandemic. no human can escape to the storm. Today. They had achieved two major credit agencies. the crisis in residential real estate hit Bear Stearns. it seemed that it (globalization) could offer the world better conditions and could reassure peaceful relations between states. The American model of development is in question and America can no longer provide the only inevitable way to reach prosperity. Bush agrees to use taxpayers' money to try to save the banking sector. President George W. at various levels. The crisis. The American economic slump is contagious and the effects of globalization have not always been hateful. His successor. which the federal government saves with the assistance of the Morgan bank. Inevitably. It can be reached unless it changes its economic policy.S. led to development and to economic growth. agencies in charge of ensuring the work of lending institutions connive or do not see the dangers that threaten the country. the . Therefore. for many years. a poorly defined word that frightens. After the decline of the Soviet Union. Now. it was the turn of Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch. In March.

must come to a standstill. Even if America shows a little more humility. Consequently. there is the cultural power. the attention of political and economic officials is dedicated to finding solutions. recalling errors in the thirties of the twentieth century pacify these aspirations for the protection of customs. Its economic strength. Conversely. to give up capitalism. at least for the moment. the United States of America does not lack assets. in the agenda of their meetings. to prevent excessiveness and to institute state governed financial institutions. Spending on education and health must be decreased. and on immigrants who bring their professional qualifications. waves of immigrants. though weakened. there is no question. In addition to the military force. who leave their developing countries to find work and improve their condition in industrialized countries. Whenever it is possible. It is based on technological innovation. the highest priority is to fight against the crisis. financial crisis and the threats of social and political institutions. The only field that could escape these restrictions is the environment. Once again appears in the front scene the spectrum of American decline. remains impressive. Would not protectionism be the solution to our problems? This is what some insistent whispers make us believe. and though President Barack Obama .Americans choose to use the public power to fight the disaster. on scientific research. protecting nature and making use of new energy sources are also ways to fight against the crisis. Yet. Certainly. In all cases. to the extent that some in New York and Washington do not fail to alert their compatriots about the growing "socialism" that could threaten the country. to establish strict and clear regulations. other areas of human activity decline in the hierarchy of concerns. let alone prevent a recovery that has been awaited for a long time. Heads of states and governments have. In the United States and elsewhere. it is a matter of exceptional measures that are related to this hard time but which should not interfere. Preserving natural resources. Today. The condemnation of the "golden handshake» and tax havens appear in the agenda without becoming an unchanged dogma.

Indonesia. that come to join the United States. it is still very impressive. It is true that there are new actors taking the lead. Germany. Nevertheless. They are indispensable partners. India. Great Britain.2% of global wealth. Their annual growth rate is great. fragile in a way and want to make their voices heard in international forums. France. The 500 largest U. is more illusory than real. South Korea. Turkey. Decline. In 2003. Japan. Italy. proponents of prospective geopolitics fantasized about the "Chinese peril. it doubled six times more. Decisions that affect the world are no longer taken by Europe and North America. if the United States of America stopped to be the leading power of the world. Saudi Arabia. which is relative. Australia. Treasury bonds are .7 billion. As for calculations. who would replace it? The United States had lost some of their influence and Europe has neither the means nor the desire to take its place. Canada and Russia. It is between 8 and 9% for East Asia and the Pacific. Developing countries account for nearly 5 billion and a half men and women for a global population of 6. In 1979 China traded for 400 billion dollars with the United States in 2008. while the G8 had 44. between 600 billion and 1." They imagined a conquering power imposing its rule first on the Asian continent. the new members of the G20 gathered 39. Brazil. In the 1990’s. they are emerging countries. these economies are considered as locomotives of global growth. Argentina.announced that he will listen to his allies more than did his predecessor.S. it exceeds 5% for South Asia and is around 4% in the Middle East. aspirations to leadership had not yet disappeared. Although weakened by the crisis. South Africa.S. The model of China needs some attention. the first countries will have greatly exceeded the second ones. companies have all invested in China and Wal-Mart alone is the seventh trading partner China. the G20 meeting held in London conferred an important role to countries like China. Today. and then on others. Mexico. As for the Chinese presence in the United States.1% of the world's wealth. The alliance of nations now includes many countries that want their voices to be heard. In 2030. the view of the future has changed.000 billion U. In April 2009.

The growth of its population. Admittedly. Its growth rate has decreased slightly due to the dependence on the American market. Does it mean that China is about to become the superpower of the twenty-first century? Nothing is less certain. especially if compared to the growth rate of developed nations. which allows it to buy many firms in difficulty. The commercial. if its diplomacy is following closely the events in South-East and North-East Asia. puts a brake on its economic growth. the Chinese economy is recapturing the American. as in the Strait of Taiwan and in Asian seas. Because the crisis weakens the United States. this growth rate is not high. Latin America. to the extent that it is now ranked third in the world rankings. Businesspersons and about a hundred of thousands of Chinese students live or come regularly to the United States. which does not eliminate the rivalry. the European and the Japanese economy. despite its weaknesses. which is a confirmation of an upheaval in international relations. Collusion does not remove more situations of conflict. the energetic and the technological dependence on foreign countries makes it very vulnerable.held by China. Japan and the European Union. it has not yet . Its currency is particularly competitive and its territory welcomes foreign companies that benefit from of the Chinese market. on the African continent and among Latin American nations. Its workforce is paid very low wages. It has a mass of cash. There is collusion between the two countries. This is Seen in Africa. where the Chinese have taken or are about to take the place of Americans. households save as much as they can to pay their health care costs and the education of their children. Central Asia and the Middle East. China gets the largest benefit. slowed by some drastic measures and the aging of its population. If China appears in East Asia and if it overcomes the disputes opposing it to Japan and ties close links with this country. at least for the next twenty years. this undeniable evolution should be distinguished. Also. Overall. Inequalities within society are very strong and the communist and the nationalist political regimes are in contrast with the economic development. Nevertheless.

political and geostrategic conflicts bang together. this region can ignite and the fire can spread to the rest of the world. In June 2005. This domination is fearful and unbearable because Iran is Shiite and the majority of its neighbours are Sunnis. Saudi Arabia. Mahmoud Ahmadi Nejad was elected president of the Iranian Republic that does not mean that he holds the supreme power. Germany. Three tension centres raise the most serious concerns. but the enrichment of uranium would be prohibited. Germany. Iran is an ambitious power. Iran has become a dangerously aggressive power and if it acquires nuclear weapons. material interests. France. Iranians applauded the fall of Saddam Hussein. the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) alerts the public opinion about the nuclear program that could lead to the construction of a bomb. In 2003. and even Egypt will be weakened and will try to acquire nuclear weapons. From that time. both near and far from western culture. it will have the means to attack Israel. Gulf States. Tehran condemned the American intervention in Iraq. Russia and China) to set limits on . Britain. Great Britain and France are trying to mediate for the treaty of non-proliferation. More than ever. but proclaimed its "active neutrality". just after having announced the resumption of uranium enrichment. and subject to conflicting currents. to threaten its neighbours and to exercise a kind of domination over the region. On October 26th. which is seen either as true or as illusory. religious fanaticism. In this perspective. From here came the increasing efforts of the West (United States.shown a desire to establish a world order of which it will be the victorious. Moreover. India that is also growing. but that did not prevent them from calling for the immediate departure of the coalition forces. research for only nuclear energy would be allowed. However. he said that Israel should be "wiped off the map". could balance the Chinese influence and acts as a counterweight. The east complicated From the Mediterranean to the borders of India. Iran has made a gesture of good will.

The second solution is diplomacy. is Iraq's Osirak reactor a radical and a desirable solution? Iranians have taken their own precautions. In this context. They dispersed and protected their facilities. Iran is frightening country. A new resolution prohibits the sale of any material. rely on the . to destroy Iran's nuclear power plants as was destroyed by Israel in 1980. On July 31st 2006. it will be impossible to contain the fire. to alternate between sanctions and gestures of goodwill.Iranian ambitions. which provoked a violent Israeli military response and on December 12th. Experts believe that Iran will have a bomb in the next few years. that is to say. any technology that affects nuclear and ballistic activities in Iran. Moreover. it is necessary to continue relentlessly attempts at dialogue. land or sea attack. Iran supported the Lebanese Hezbollah. The acquisition of the ultimate weapon. President Ahmadinejad inaugurated an international conference to deny the existence of the Holocaust. Successive resolutions appear and European diplomats increase their interventions for the cessation of uranium enrichment. Its territory will be in "sanctum" and there will no longer be an air. the support for the Shiite population in the region that could destabilize some societies in the Middle East. the hostility and the genocide statements against the State of Israel are all grounds to fear the worst. The first is related to military action. the testing of explosives of high intensity and a plan of nuclear test. They can count on the movements and factions that could inevitably trigger terrorist attacks in Europe and in America. once the powder keg is lit. the Security Council of the UN demands that Iran “suspend all activities related to uranium enrichment” but in vain. So how can the disaster be avoided? Two solutions are possible none of which give sure decisive results. since any attack could be followed by a nuclear response having devastating effects. the development of a warhead that could carry a nuclear charge. When all is said. reported that there is a possible militarization of Iran's nuclear program. IAEA report was released on May 28th 2008. Meanwhile.

which broke all relations with Iran in 1979 . the political situation has improved first and allowed Hamid Karzai to form a government. with an important involvement of the United States. Once Ahmadinejad was re-elected president in June 2009. Seven years after the establishment of ISAF. have regained some lost ground to the extent that they threaten to occupy most of the country. to ensure that Americans will not make war on Islam and that Iran could play a role in the restoration of peace in Afghanistan. but so far nothing seems less certain. the regime hardened and times for negotiation did not seem to have come. America missed its right enemies. it aims at establishing political regimes that apply Charia that are real theocracies and oppose the presence and cooperation with democratic regimes. Then the Taliban. who can count on the refuge in the tribal areas of Pakistan. Since he became president of the United States. to restore security and participate in the reconstruction of the country. Until now. Americans and their allies have neglected the Afghan front. the Security Council of the United Nations established a mission of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) to help the Afghan authority. after the attacks of 2001. the Middle East and Iraq.is ready to start negotiations. The essence of this Islamism is in Afghanistan and Pakistan. By focusing on the Iraqi front. the force included soldiers of 40 nations. For them. priorities must be reversed. Nevertheless. NATO took command of ISAF and in April 2008. Therefore. is Iran willing to take the path of conciliation? Perhaps. promised that his country . Islamism is powerful in Afghanistan and it was not so in Iraq.declining influence of supporters of Ahmadinajad and on the wisdom of leaders who are believed to be moderate. diplomats not yet have any significant results as if Tehran pretended to be negotiating gradually to achieve its goal. Militant Islam and terrorism are another threat affecting the Middle East and exerting influence outside the region. Yet. once the Taliban are overthrown. Is there any link between Iraq and Afghanistan? Some people support this link starting by Barack Obama. Since Iraq is more or . Barack Obama offered help to Iranians.

the attacks do not resume and that the opponents of the United States do not profit from the announcement of the withdrawal to put back their attacks. they give an important place to Islam. forces from the . The Pakistani army is probably not able to contain the Islamist forces. elections were held. If the Taliban yield the ground and can no longer rely on their Pakistani allies.S. the ultimate goal would be to let people decide on their own fate and on the political system. Their objective will be to push back the Taliban. troops assigned to Iraq should withdraw as quickly as possible and strengthen their forces in Afghanistan. to control areas where farmers grow opium for the benefit of the Taliban and to strengthen the elected authorities. that NATO forces do not suffer losses that would make their withdrawal impossible and give the enemy a resounding political victory. the U. It is shaken by Islamists who do not hesitate to resort to attacks and to arms against the political power. President George W. the Taliban are close to the capital. and this is one of the reasons for the improvement of the situation. A date must be set now for the withdrawal and President Barack Obama has set the American withdrawal to be in the summer of 2010.S. 20. that a government and an elected assembly have been placed and many tribes have stopped backing the former supporters of Saddam Hussein and the followers of Al Qaeda. Bush rallied finally in strengthening the military presence in Iraq. As long as Iraq is not destabilized by then. Pakistan is undoubtedly the heart of the problem. Because of using terror.000 American soldiers will reinforce their fellows of NATO who are fighting in Afghanistan. They got what is like sharing the national territory. It has nuclear weapons and its relations with India are particularly difficult. Overall. In any case. they arouse hostility against the West and its allies and they impose their authority. Still worse. In January 2007.less stabilized. which suits them. This strategy lies on three points. What will happen if they manage to gain power over the whole country and then have the nuclear weapon? An adviser to General David Petraeus -who commands the U.

broke all relations with Yasser Arafat. Soon after. In 2002. or that many attempts to establish or re-establish a dialogue between the opponents. Therefore. The IsraeliPalestinian summit. it is not the lack of good will that is missing. Arafat died and his successor. In July 2006. Ariel Sharon. Hamas did not make any delay to control the Gaza Strip and Mahmoud Abbas no longer exercises authority . In November 2004. For its part. so it destroyed a part of Lebanon. U.S. a suicide bombing occurs and Sharon reoccupied the West Bank and decided to build a security fence to prevent suicide bombers from entering Israeli territory. Russia) adopted the "roadmap" which foresaw that a Palestinian state will be born before the end of 2005. the sanctuary of Al Qaida. the Arab League developed a plan for peace: Member-States recognize Israel. the Quartet (EU.. Ariel Sharon announced a unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and four other Jewish settlements in the West Bank. In 2003. Moreover. What remains is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and there is no evidence that it will end in the months or in the years to come. at the Lebanese border. Hamas won the legislative elections in the Palestinian territories. The new Israeli Prime Minister. which President Bill Clinton convened at Camp David in 2000. UN. In fact. Mahmoud Abbas was elected president of the Palestinian Authority in January 2005. The United States and the European Union refused to establish any relations with it. had failed. then the second intifada began. This Islamist movement announces that it will not change its program: there will be no renunciation of terrorism. The next year. all Israeli settlements in the Gaza Strip were dismantled. Hezbollah that is backed by Iran provoked Israel. there will be no recognition of the State of Israel and no acceptance of the previous agreements signed by the Palestinian Authority. if it withdraws from all the territories it occupied in 1967. In 2006.Horn of Africa to Central Asia . who until the last days of his life was locked into his office in Ramallah.rightly states that the central front of their war against Al Qaeda is neither Iraq nor Afghanistan it is Pakistan. there is no strategy to end this sanctuary.

both sides have to reach an agreement on the status of the city of Jerusalem and on the Jewish settlements in the West Bank. but the other refuses and has the support of extremists in the Arab world as well as the support of Iran. In December 2008. in order to respond to the ceaseless firing of rockets. Bush has been much criticized for not being active enough. of which Hamas profited to continue for years. its rocket attacks on Israeli cities. Although the majority of each one is yearning for peace. perhaps. that most Palestinians have interpreted the withdrawal as a sign of weakness. that is to say the settlements in the West Bank for peace. . that the Israeli right wing won the recent elections. The European Union has neither the means to make sufficient pressure nor a clearly stated policy. Finally. How should we interpret this sequence of events? Two Palestinian movements exercise power. there are many points causing division among Israelis and Palestinians. would not it be right for a foreign intervention in the region so that the opponents could reach an agreement? President George W. At the beginning of 2009. Fatah and Hamas hate and fight each other.over the West Bank. Israelis note that the Oslo Accords. Will the new president of the United States. An overwhelming majority of Israeli people would exchange territories. The Palestinian unity was shattered. It is not surprising. the withdrawal from southern Lebanon and Gaza did not make progress for the spirit of peace. to reach an agreement and for a Palestinian State to see the light on small territory of the Holy Land. One is in favour of negotiations with Israel. This will stop Islamic terrorism on the Jewish character of the State of Israel. Ehud Olmert followed Ariel Sharon who left office and Benjamin Netanyahu who became prime minister. succeed in getting results than his predecessors have tried to reach vainly? However. two states living in peace "in secure and recognized borders". Israel triggered a military offensive against the Gaza Strip.