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APPENDIX BWORKBOOK FOR SEMI-QUANTITATIVE

RISK-BASED INSPECTION ANALYSIS


B.1 Introduction

Increasing risk

After the completion of the first RBI pilot project, a scaled


down approach to RBI analysis was developed to provide
most of the benefit but not require as much input. It was also
desired to present the results in a simplified manner, e.g., a 5 x
5 matrix showing Likelihood vs. Consequence in which the
values are presented as categories. Such a 5 x 5 matrix is
shown in Figure B-1. The scaled down approach was referred
to as a Level II approach; the qualitative approach (See
Section 5) is Level I; and an approach using all of the methods of the BRD is Level III.

Likelihood Category

B.2 Consequence Analysis


For Level II RBI, the consequence model is essentially the
same as is outlined in Section 7. One major simplification is
in the determination of inventory amounts. In the pilot project,
a large amount of time and effort was expended in determination of inventory amounts. For the Level II approach, to simplify this process, inventories may be estimated on an order of
magnitude basis using the following guidelines:
The inventories can be selected from one of five order of
magnitude categories as shown in Table B-1.

Consequence Category

Figure B-1Level II Risk Matrix

Table B-1Inventory Category Ranges


Category

Range

100 to 1,000 lbs.

1,000 to 10,000 lbs.

10,000 to 100,000 lbs.

100,000 to 1,000,000 lbs.

1,000,000 to 10,000,000 lbs.

The person performing the analysis still has the option to


use any value for the inventory. For example, if the inventory
has been calculated, this value may be entered.
The consequence area is calculated for each hole size
exactly as outlined in Section 7. To calculate a single overall
consequence of failure for each equipment item, a Likelihood Weighted average area is calculated. This is done by
first multiplying the consequence area for each hole size by
the ratio of the generic frequency for that hole size to the
sum of the generic frequencies for all hole sizes. (See
Equation B-1.)

Value Used In
Calculations
500
5,000
50,000
500,000
5,000,000

The user can select the category based on judgmental evaluation for each category as outlined in Table B-2:

FREQn n = 4
--------------------------- AREAn
FREQn n = 1

Table B-2Description of Inventory Categories


Category
A
B
C

(B-1)

Qualitative Description
The release will result in less than total deinventory of
the equipment item being evaluated.
The release will result in total deinventory of the
equipment item being evaluated.
The release will result in total deinventory of the
equipment item being evaluated, plus one to ten other
equipment items.
The release will result in total deinventory of the
equipment item being evaluated, plus ten or more
other equipment items.
The release will result in total deinventory of the unit.

This ratio determines the weight to be given to the calculated area for each hole size depending on the relative likelihood of the hole relative to other holes. In this approach, the
value of each generic frequency does not matter, only the
relative values of each vs. the others. The weighted area thus
calculated for each hole size is then summed to produce a single consequence area value. (See Equation B-2) This value
can be considered to be the most likely affected area if many
events were observed that follow the distribution of generic
hole sizes used.
B-1

B-2

API 581

Table B-4Variability of Technical Module Subfactors

LIKELIHOOD WEIGHTED AVERAGE AREA =


n=4

n=1

Subfactor

FREQn
AREAn --------------------------n=4

(B-2)

Variability

Universal Subfactor

FREQn

Plant Condition

Constant for Plant

n=1

Cold Weather

Constant for Plant

Seismic Activity

Constant for Plant

The conversion of the likelihood weighted average area to


a consequence category is accomplished through a simple
assignment of categories to area values. It is possible,
depending on the assignments chosen, to have an area associated with any category, according to the needs of the study.
However, it was the consensus opinion of the API RBI Sponsor Group that refineries should all be compared using the
same assignment of areas to categories. A simple order of
magnitude assignment is illustrated in Table B-3.
Table B-3Consequence Area Categories
Consequence
Category

Likelihood Weighted
Average Area

< 10 ft2

10 100 ft2

100 1,000 ft2

1,000 10,000 ft2

> 10,000 ft2

In keeping with the philosophy of Level II being a simplified approach for the purposes of ranking equipment by risk,
business interruption and environmental consequences are
not included in the approach.

B.3 Likelihood Analysis


One major observation of the pilot study was that in many
cases, the technical module subfactors far outweighed all of
the other subfactors combined. The technical module subfactors can range as high as 1,000 or more, while the other subfactors are relatively small (< 10). In addition, the other
subfactors (except for the mechanical subfactor) tend to be
constant across a plant or unit, and thus do not provide any
discrimination between equipment items in any given plant or
unit. As such, these subfactors can be used for comparisons
between different sites, but do not aid the formation of an
inspection plan based on risk. The other subfactors are
listed for reference:
Based on these observations, it was decided that the likelihood would only be determined by the technical module subfactor. This is the only subfactor that is directly affected by
inspection and that will form the basis for an inspection plan.
The conversion of the technical module subfactor to a likelihood category is accomplished through a simple assignment

Mechanical Subfactor
Equipment Complexity

Varies by equipment

Construction Code

Varies by equipment

Life Cycle

Varies by equipment

Safety Factors

Varies by equipment

Vibration Monitoring

Usually constant within a unit

Process Subfactor
Continuity

Constant for a Unit

Stability

Constant for a Unit

Relief Valves

Constant for a Unit

Process Safety Management

Constant for a Unit or Plant

Table B-5Technical Module Subfactor Conversion


Likelihood
Category

Technical Module Subfactor

<1

1 10

10 100

100 1,000

> 1,000

of categories to subfactor values. A simple order of magnitude assignment was chosen and is illustrated in Table B-5.

B.4 Risk Analysis


The Risk Analysis for the Level II approach is a straightforward assignment of likelihood and consequence to their
appropriate categories and placing them in the 5 x 5 matrix.
Different areas of the matrix are shaded to illustrate High,
Medium High, Medium, and Low categories of Risk.
These assignments are shown in Figure B-2.
Note that the risk assignments are skewed to assign higher
risks to higher consequence events. This is commonly done in
forming plots of risk to illustrate a stronger aversion to high
consequence events vs. low consequence events.

RISK-BASED INSPECTION BASE RESOURCE DOCUMENT

High

Likelihood Category

Med. High

B-3

Level II approach to RBI. It captures the relevant information and calculations outlined in Appendix A and guides the
user through each step required to categorize likelihood,
consequence, and risk. The workbook is designed for use on
a single piece of equipment. It calculates two different consequences covered by Level II RBI:
a. a. Flammable Consequences
b. b. Toxic Consequences

Medium

Low

Consequence Category

Figure B-2Level II Qualitative Risk Matrix

B.5 Workbook for Level II Approach


This workbook is intended to be used as a worksheet in
conjunction with the Base Resource Document (BRD)

The results for flammable and toxic consequences are


reported as a category.
In order to perform the quantitative RBI calculations, some
characteristics of the release need to be defined. Part A of this
workbook covers these initial calculations to determine
release rate, type, durations, etc.
A likelihood analysis (Part B) is then carried out to obtain
likelihood categories for the equipment. As outlined in
Appendix I, the likelihood category is determined by the
technical module subfactor.
Risk is evaluated last (Part D), by placement of the likelihood category and the consequence category in the Risk
Matrix. The above process, repeated for all pieces of equipment within a unit or plant, will produce risk measures that
can help prioritize the equipment based on its potential risk.

B-4

API 581

Operating Unit:
Equipment No:
Description:
Part A RELEASE RATE CALCULATION
Estimation of release rates for different hole sizes and release types and durations for each of the hole sizes.
Step I

CALCULATE RELEASE RATE

1.

Enter representative material contained in equipment being evaluated. (Table 7.1


in Section 7.1)

2.

Enter the inventory category for the equipment using the guidelines in section 2
of Appendix VIII.

2a.

Enter the inventory value as the midpoint of the range, or as a calculated value.
(See Appendix VIII, Table B-1).

3.

Use Table 7.4 to enter detection rating applicable to the detection systems
present in the area.

4.

Use Table 7.4 to enter isolation rating applicable to the isolation systems present
in the area.

5.

Use Table 7.5 to estimate leak duration based on detection


and isolation systems.

6.

Enter operating pressure

7.

Circle gas or liquid, depending on the phase of the fluid in the equipment.
If liquid, skip to Line 15.

lbs.

1/ in.
4

1 in.

4 in.

Rupture

min

min

min

min
psia

Gas

Liquid

GAS RELEASE RATE


8.

Enter the process temperature

9.

From standard tables of fluid properties, enter the heat capacity (Cp) of the
gas at temperature given in Line 8.

10.

Calculate and enter K[K = Cp (Cp-R)] where R is ideal gas constant.


(1.987 BTU/lb-mol F)

11.

Calculate and enter transition pressure (Ptrans), using Equation 7.2 in


Section 7.4.

12.

Is fluid pressure inside the equipment greater than transition pressure


(Line 6 > Line 11)?

BTU/lb-mol F

psia

Sonic

If yes, circle sonic, go to Line 13.

Subsonic

If no, circle subsonic and skip to Line 14.


1/ in.
4

1 in.

4 in.

Rupture

Use sonic Equation 7.3 in Section 7.4 to calculate release rate for each of the
listed hole sizes and enter rate. Skip to Line 16.

lb/sec

lb/sec

lb/sec

lb/sec

Use subsonic Equation 7.4 in Section 7.4 to calculate release rate for each of the
listed hole sizes and enter rate. Skip to Line 16.

lb/sec

lb/sec

lb/sec

lb/sec

HOLE SIZES >


13.
14.

RISK-BASED INSPECTION BASE RESOURCE DOCUMENT

B-5

LIQUID RELEASE RATE


15.
Step II
16.

17.

Use liquid release Equation 7.1 in Section 7.4 to calculate release rate. Enter
rate. Go to Line 16.

lb/sec

lb/sec

lb/sec

lb/sec

min

min

min

min

inst

inst

inst

inst

cont

cont

cont

cont

DETERMINE RELEASE TYPE FOR EACH HOLE SIZE


Divide maximum permissible released inventory by the appropriate release
rate = Line 2 (Line 13, 14 or 15). Divide by 60 to get minutes. Enter value.
This is the time required to deinventory, based on initial flow rates.
Is flow rate (lines 13, 14 or 15) times three minutes > 10,000 lbs.? If the answer
is yes, circle inst for instantaneous. Otherwise, circle cont for continuous.
Note that 1/4 in. hole sizes are always cont.
DETERMINATION OF PHASE AFTER RELEASE

18.

Enter the boiling point of the fluid at atmospheric pressure, TNBP

19.

Use Table 7.3 to determine the phase of the fluid after the release.
Enter the phase

20.

Enter the initials of the circled terms in Lines 17 and Line 19. This is the
release type (i.e., IL for instantaneous liquid, etc.)

21.

Look at Line 5 and at Line 16. For each hole size, enter the lesser of the two.
This is the release duration. For instantaneous, the duration is assumed to be 0.
(Release duration at Line 5 is based on detection/isolation and at Line 16 is
based on inventory release rate.)

min

min

min

min

DETERMINATION OF INSTANTANEOUS RELEASE MASS


22.

Enter the inventory of the equipment being evaluated from Line 2a. This is the
instantaneous release mass.

lbs.

B-6

API 581

Part B LIKELIHOOD ANALYSIS


Likelihood Analysis is the product of several factors that can indicate likelihood of equipment failure.
Step I

TECHNICAL MODULES SUBFACTOR (See Section 8.3.1)


Screen to identify damage mechanisms. Use appropriate damage mechanism technical module (see Appendix VIII) to
determine individual factors.
If no damage mechanisms are identified, then enter -2 as technical module subfactor (Line 11).

1.

Identified damage mechanisms


1a. Thinning/Corrosion (Y/N)
1b. HTHA (Y/N)
1c. SCC (Y/N)

Note: Items 2 through 7 are for recording certain basic information applicable to the Technical
Modules. Not all items are required by each module, and not all data required by each Technical
Module are presented below.
2.

Age of equipment in current service


2A. Estimated/measured corrosion rate
2B. Nelson Curve Temperature
2C. SCC Crack Size or Susceptibility

3.

Calculate left column of Technical Module table

4.

Determine inspection equivalents (H, U, F, P, I)


4A. Number of Inspections

5.

Technical module subfactor from table

6.

Correction for overdesign

7.

Correction for highly reliable damage rate data

8.

Corrected technical module subfactor

9.

Combined technical module subfactor

10.

Likelihood category from Table B-6 of Appendix VIII

1a

1b

1c

RISK-BASED INSPECTION BASE RESOURCE DOCUMENT

Part C.1

B-7

FLAMMABLE CONSEQUENCE CALCULATIONS


Estimation of the flammable consequences area for equipment and personnel due to an ignited release of hydrocarbon

REPRESENTATIVE MATERIAL
1.

Copy representative material (Line 1 from Release Rate Calculation


Workbook, Part A).
1/ in.
4

1 in.

4 in.

Rupture

lb or
lb/min

lb or
lb/min

lb or
lb/min

lb or
lb/min

lb or
lb/min

lb or
lb/min

lb or
lb/min

lb or
lb/min

ft2

ft2

ft2

ft2

If consequence can be reduced due to any of the mitigation systems in Table


7.14, Section 7.8, decrease Equipment Damage Area (Line 7) by recommended
percentage. This is the Equipment Damage Area.
>

ft2

ft2

ft2

ft2

If consequence can be reduced due to any of the mitigation systems in Table 7.14
of Section 7.8, decrease the unadjusted Area of Potential Fatalities (Line 8) by
recommended percentage. This is the Area of Fatalities.
>

ft2

ft2

ft2

ft2

HOLE SIZES >


RELEASE TYPE
2.

Copy release type (Line 23 from Release Rate Calculation Workbook, Part A).
RELEASE RATE OR MASS

3.

Copy the release rate or mass (Line 13 or 14 or 15 or 22 from Release Rate


Calculation Workbook, Part A), depending on the type of release
DETECTION RATING

4.

Copy Line 3 from Release Rate Worksheet (detection rating applicable to the
detection systems present in the area).
ISOLATION RATING

5.

Copy Line 4 from Release Rate Worksheet (isolation rating applicable to the
isolation systems present in the area).
ADJUSTMENTS FOR FLAMMABLE EVENT MITIGATION

6.

Look at Table 7.14 in Section 7.8 to adjust release rates or mass based on
Line 4 and 5 above. Enter adjusted release rate or mass.
For mitigation systems that reduce consequence area (firewater deluge
system, monitors, or foam spray system), make adjustment on Line 9.
EQUIPMENT DAMAGE AREA

7.

Look at Equipment Damage equations in Consequence Equation Tables 7.10


to 7.13 and replace x by adjusted release rate or mass (Line 6) in appropriate
equations. (Use the information in Lines 1, 2, and 3 to select the correct equation) Use Table 7.12 or 7.13 if the fluid is at 80F above its auto ignition temperature, otherwise use Table 7.10 or 7.11.
POTENTIAL FATALITIES AREAS

8.

Look at Area of Potential Fatalities in Consequence Equation Tables 7.10 to 7.13


and replace x by adjusted release rate or mass (Line 6) in appropriate equations. (Use the information in Lines 1, 2, and 3 to select the correct equation)
Use Table 7.12 or 7.13 if the fluid is at 80F above its auto ignition temperature,
otherwise use Table 7.10 or 7.11.
CONSEQUENCE REDUCTION

9.

10.

B-8

API 581

Part C.2

TOXIC CONSEQUENCE CALCULATIONS


Estimation of the toxic consequence area for a release of HF or H2S

1.

Copy material (Line 1 from Release Rate Calculation Workbook, Part A).
Note: Look-up tables have only been developed for HF & H2S.
1/ in.
4

1 in.

4 in.

Rupture

lb/sec

lb/sec

lb/sec

lb/sec

min

min

min

min

For continuous, see Figure 7.5 (HF) or Figure 7.6 (H2S).


Select the curve with a release duration that matches or exceeds the duration shown
in Line 4 above, up to 1 hour. Use the selected curve to find the consequence area
corresponding to release rates given in Line 3.

ft2

ft2

ft2

ft2

For instantaneous, enter total inventory released (Line 22 from Release Rate
Calculation Workbook, Part A).

lb

lb

lb

lb

ft2

ft2

ft2

ft2

ft2

ft2

ft2

ft2

HOLE SIZES >


2.

Copy release type (Line 20 from Release Rate Calculation Workbook, Part A).

3.

Copy the release rate (Line 13 or 14 or 15 from Release Rate Calculation


Workbook, Part A). For instantaneous, skip to Line 8.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

Copy release durations from Line 21 on Release Rate Worksheet.

For instantaneous, see Figure 7.8. Locate curve applicable to material selected.
Enter consequence area for release mass given in Line 6.

Enter the results of either Line 5 or Line 7 in this line. This is the toxic
consequence area.

>

RISK-BASED INSPECTION BASE RESOURCE DOCUMENT

PART D

B-9

RISK CALCULATIONS
Risk values for release scenario from a single piece of equipment
HOLE SIZES >

1.

Enter the generic failure frequency by hole size from Table 8.1.

2.

Calculate Sum of Failure Frequencies

3.

Calculate fraction contribution of each hole size by dividing the hole size
generic frequency by the sum of the generic frequencies.

4.

Copy flammable consequence results (Line 9 - Equipment Damage or


Line 10Area of Fatalities from Flammable Consequence Workbook, Part C.1)

5.

Multiply each value in Line 4 by the corresponding fraction in Line 3.

6.

Copy toxic consequence results (Line 10 from Toxic Consequence


Workbook, Part C.2)

1/ in.
4

1 in.

4 in.

Rupture

/yr

ft2

ft2

ft2

ft2

ft2

ft2

ft2

ft2

ft2

ft2

ft2

ft2

ft2

ft2

ft2

ft2

ft2

ft2

ft2

ft2

7.

Multiply each value in Line 6 by the corresponding fraction in Line 3.

8.

Sum the values from Line 5. This is the Flammable Consequence area value.

ft2

9.

Sum the values from Line 7. This is the Toxic Consequence area value.

ft2

10.

Convert the value from either Line 7 or Line 8 to a category according to


Appendix VIII, Table B-3. This is the Consequence Category.

11.

Copy the Likelihood Category from Part B, Line 10 of this workbook.

12.

Convert the categories from Lines 10 and 11 to a risk category using


Appendix VIII, Figure 2.