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October 20, 2015

To: Interested Parties


Fr: Anzalone Liszt Grove Research
Re: Polling results among Democratic primary voters in Iowas 1st Congressional District
Monica Vernon has a small lead over 2014 Democratic nominee and former House Speaker Pat
Murphy in the race for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Congress in Iowas 1st congressional
district. Vernon has a two-point lead over Murphy, 40% / 38%. Candidate Gary Kroeger takes
just 6% of the vote and 16% of voters remain undecided. Both Vernon and Murphy earn positive
popularity ratings, however Murphy begins with a twelve point advantage in name identification
over Vernon, while Kroeger is relatively unknown.
The following are key findings from a poll conducted among Democratic primary voters in Iowas
1st Congressional district.1
Key Findings
1. More than half of primary voters give Monica Vernon a positive favorability rating.
Vernon is well-known and well-liked by primary voters. Nearly two-thirds of primary
voters are familiar with Vernon (62%) and more than half of voters (54%) rate her
favorably.
She is especially popular in her home county of Linn (78% favorable), but is well known
and popular in all parts of the district. She is also very popular among voters in union
households (54% favorable).
2. Pat Murphy is well-known and popular with primary voters. Murphy is better-known
to voters than Vernon at this stage in the campaign. He has a 74% name ID, twelve
points higher than Vernons, and has a 64% favorable rating. Murphy is best-known in
Dubuque County, where 94% of voters know him. He is less known in other parts of the
district.

Anzalone Liszt Grove Research conducted a poll among N=500 likely June 2016 Democratic primary voters in
Iowas first congressional district. The poll was conducted by telephone using professional interviewers, including
30% of all interviews conducted via cell phone. Interviews were conducted October 5-8, 2015. The margin of error
for the whole sample is +/- 4.4 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence.

Anzalone Liszt Grove Research 2

3. The congressional race begins essentially tied, with Vernon leading Murphy by
two points. Vernon begins the race with 40% of the vote, Murphy takes 38%, and Gary
Kroeger takes 6% of the vote. The remaining 16% of voters are undecided.

4. Vernon has a double-digit lead among voters who know both candidates. Among
the 51% of voters who know both Vernon and Murphy, Vernon leads 53% / 39%. Murphy
is able to keep the race close due to his higher name ID at this stage. Vernon also leads
among people who voted in the June 2014 primary by six points, 44% / 38%.