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QUANTITATIVE RISK

ASSESSMENT

Risk can be assessed qualitatively or


quantitatively.
Qualitatively, risk is considered proportional to
the expected losses which can be caused by
an event and to the probability of this event.
The harsher the loss and the more likely the
event, the greater the overall risk

Definition
Risk = Severity x Likelihood
Extent of Damage
Fatality
Injuries
Losses

Likelihood of event
Based of failure frequency of
process components

Analysis based on design and


modeling equations

Analysis based on
manufacturers and historical
data

Understanding of risk
What can go wrong?
What are the consequences?
How likely is it to happen?

Quantitative
Risk Assessment

What is QRA
Systematic methodology to assess risks
associated any installation
Taking into consideration all forms of hazards
Uses design information and historical data to
estimate frequency of failure
Uses modelling software to assess consequence

Where/when is QRA needed


CIMAH 1989 part of CIMAH safety report
EQA 1985 a section under EIA

Methodology
Hazard Identification

Frequency Analysis

Risk Estimation and


Evaluation

Risk Management

Consequence
Analysis

Hazard Identification
Purpose: to identify plausible
hazard conditions
Hazard can be from human,
situational, chemical, physical,
mechanical, external threats
Methods
Check-list, Preliminary Hazard
Review, HAZOP etc.
Unstructured brainstorming?

Hazard
Identification

Conseque
nce
Analysis

Frequency
Analysis

Risk
Estimation
and
Evaluation

Risk
Managem
ent

Frequency Analysis
Sometimes referred to as Hazard
Analysis
Purpose: To estimate the likelihood
for a hazard scenario to occur
Methods
Event-Tree Analysis
Fault-Tree Analysis

Hazard
Identificati
on

Conseque
nce
Analysis

Frequency
Analysis

Risk
Estimation
and
Evaluation

Risk
Managem
ent

Consequence Analysis
Hazard
Identificati
on

Purpose: To assess the extent of damage


Typical Hazard
Toxic Release, Fire and Explosion

Conseque
nce
Analysis

Frequency
Analysis

Modeling of hazard scenario

Toxic Release: Dispersion Model


Fire and explosion: TNT equivalent
Fatality Assessment: Probit Analysis
Nonfatal Consequence: Skin-burn, Property
damage

Risk Estimation
and Evaluation

Risk
Managem
ent

TOXIC RELEASE: DISPERSION MODELS


Dispersion models describe the airborne transport of toxic
materials away from the accident site and into the plant and
community.
After a release, the airborne toxic is carried away by the
wind in a characteristic plume or a puff
The maximum concentration of toxic material occurs at the
release point (which may not be at ground level).
Concentrations downwind are less, due to turbulent mixing
and dispersion of the toxic substance with air.

Plume

Factors Influencing Dispersion


Wind speed
Atmospheric stability

Ground conditions, buildings, water, trees


Height of the release above ground level
Momentum and buoyancy of the initial material
released

Wind speed
As the wind speed increases, the plume
becomes longer and narrower; the
substance is carried downwind faster but is
diluted faster by a larger quantity of air.

Atmospheric stability
Atmospheric stability relates to vertical mixing of
the air.
During the day the air temperature decreases
rapidly with height, encouraging vertical motions.
At night the temperature decrease is less,
resulting in less vertical motion.
Sometimes an inversion will occur. During and
inversion, the temperature increases with height,
resulting in minimal vertical motion. This most
often occurs at night as the ground cools rapidly
due to thermal radiation.
Three stability classes: unstable, neutral, stable

Day & Night Condition

Air temperature as a function of altitude for day and night conditions.


The temperature gradient affects the vertical air motion.

Ground conditions
Ground conditions affect the mechanical mixing at the
surface and the wind profile with height. Trees and
buildings increase mixing while lakes and open areas
decrease it.

Effect of ground conditions on vertical wind gradient.

Height of the release above ground level


The release height significantly affects ground level
concentrations.
As the release height increases, ground level
concentrations are reduced since the plume must disperse
a greater distance vertically.

Momentum and buoyancy of the initial material


released
The buoyancy and momentum of the material released
changes the effective height of the release.

The initial acceleration and buoyancy of the released material affects the plume character.

EXPLOSION: TNT EQUIVALENT


TNT equivalency is a simple method for equating a known
energy of a combustible fuel to an equivalent mass of TNT.
The approach is based on the assumption that an
exploding fuel mass behaves like exploding TNT on an
equivalent energy basis.

TNT Equivalent
The procedure to estimate the damage associated with an
explosion using the TNT equivalent method is as follows :
1. Determine the total amount of flammable material involved in the
explosion.
2. Estimate the explosion efficiency and calculate the equivalent
mass of TNT
mH C
m TNT
E TNT
m TNT is the equivalent mass of TNT (mass) 1120 calories/g ram 4686 kJ/kg.

is the empirical explosion efficiency (unitless)

is the mass of hydrocarbon

E TNT is the energy of explosion of TNT

3. Use the scaling


overpressure

law, ze

r
1/ 3
mTNT

to estimate the peak side on

Scaled overpressure, ps

1000

100

10

0.1

0.01
0.01

0.1

Scaled distance, ze (m/kg1/3)

10

100

4. Estimate the damage for common structures and process


equipment using table guide.

Risk Estimation and Evaluation


Purpose: To assess Risk and Make
Safety Judgment
Methods

Hazard
Identificati
on

Conseque
nce
Analysis

Frequency
Analysis

Individual Risk
Societal Risk

Tolerability Criteria

Risk
Estimatio
n and
Evaluatio
n

Risk
Managem
ent

Two distinct categories of Risks


Voluntary Risks
e.g. driving or riding in an automobile, and
working in an industrial facility.

Involuntary Risks
e.g. exposure to lighting, disease, typhoons
and persons in residential or recreational
areas near the industrial facilities.

Examples of risks associated with activities


Voluntary

Activity
Smoking (20
cigarettes/day)
Motor cycling
Car racing
Car driving
Rock climbing
Football

Involuntary

Risk fatalities
(death) per
person per yr
(x106)
5000
2000
1200
170
40
20

Activity
Influenza
Leukemia
Run over by road
vehicle (UK)
Run over by road
vehicle (USA)
Floods (USA)
Storms (USA)
Lightning (USA)
Falling aircraft
(USA)
Falling aircraft
(UK)

Risk fatalities
(death) per
person per yr
(x106)
200
80
60
50
2.2
0.8
0.1
0.1
0.02

Individual Risk
Individual risk is defined formally (by Institution of
Chemical Engineering, UK) as the frequency at which
an individual may be expected to sustain a given
level of harm from the realization of specified
hazards. It is usually taken to be the risk of death,
and usually expressed as a risk per year.
The term individual may be a member of a certain
group of workers on a facility, or a member of the
public, or anything as defined by the QRA.

Location Specific Individual Risk


IRx ,y ,i pi fi
IRx,y,i is the individual risk at location (x,y) due to event i,
pi is the probability of fatality due to incident i at location
(x,y). This is normally determined by FTA
fi is the frequency of incident outcome case i, (per year). This
value can be determined using Probit Analysis
When there are more than one release events, the
cumulative risk at location (x,y) is given by equation
n

IRx ,y IRx ,y ,i
i 1

Average Individual Risk /


Individual Risk Per Annum
The average individual risk is the average of all individual risk
estimates over a defined or exposed population. This is useful
for example in estimating the average risk of workers in
reference with existing population. Average individual risk
over exposed population is given by CCPS (1989) as

IRAV

IRx y Px y

x y
,

Px y

x y
,

Here, IRAV is the average individual risk in the exposed population


(probability of fatality per year) and P x, y is the number of people at
location x, y

Example: LSIR for Ship Explosion at a


Proposed Port

1 x 10-5

1 x 10-6

Societal Risk
Societal risk measures the risk to a group of people.
It is an estimation of risk in term of both the
potential size and likelihood of incidents with
multiple consequences.
The risk can be represented by Frequency-Number
(F-N) Curve.

Determination of Societal Risk


To calculate the number of fatalities resulting from each
incident outcome case, the following equation is used:

Ni Px ,y pf ,i
x ,y

Here, Ni is number of fatalities resulting from Incident


Outcome case i, pf,i is the probability of fatality and Px,y is the
number of population.
The cumulative frequency is then calculated using the
following equation:

FN Fi
i

Here, FN is the frequency of all incident outcome cases affecting N or more


people, per year and Fi= is the frequency of incident outcome case i per
year.

Risk Tolerability and


ALARP Concept

In life, there is always some risks


There is no such thing as zero risk
All activities involve some risks
The issue is at level should we tolerate
these risks

Tolerable Risk
Risk cannot be eliminated entirely.

Every chemical process has a certain amount of risk


associated with it.
At some point in the design stage someone needs to
decide if the risks are tolerable".

Each country has it owns tolerability criteria.


One tolerability criteria in the UK is "as low as
reasonable practicable" (ALARP) concept formalized
in 1974 by United Kingdom Health and Safety at Work
Act.

ALARP Criteria
INTOLERABLE LEVEL
(Risk cannot be justified
on any ground)

THE ALARP REGION


(Risk is undertaken if benefited
is desired)

TOLERABLE only if risk reduction


is impracticable or if its cost is
grossly disproportionate to the
improvement gained
TOLERABLE if cost of reduction
would exceed the improvement
gained

BROADLY
ACCEPTABLE
REGION

Tolerability Criteria in Malaysia


LSIR is used as a measure of individual risk
This means that the risk is not influenced by
population

The Upper limits for LSIR are as follows


For residential receptors : 1 X 10-6 fatality per year

For industrial receptors : 1 X 10-5 fatality per year


For workers on site: Voluntary risk (1 X 10-3 fatality
per year). This is considered maximum in UK for
offshore industry.

Risk Management
Propose: to propose mitigating
measure to reduce the potential
impact of the hazard and possibly
reduce the risk level
Method
Safe Work Procedure at every project
stages
Emergency Response Management
Emergency Response Procedure

Hazard
Identificati
on

Conseque
nce
Analysis

Frequency
Analysis

Risk
Estimatio
n and
Evaluatio
n

Risk
Managem
ent

Release Mitigation
The purpose of the consequence modelling is to provide
a tool for performing release mitigation.
Release mitigation is defined as lessening the risk of a
release incident by acting on the source (at the point of
release) either
in a preventive way by reducing the likelihood of an event which
could generate a hazardous vapour cloud; or
in a protective way by reducing the magnitude of the release
and/or the exposure of local persons or property.

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Release Mitigation
Preventing release is the best way to prevent

accidents
Release mitigation involves (see figure 1)
1. Detecting the release as quickly as possible;
2. Stopping the release as quickly as possible; and
3. Invoking a mitigation procedure to reduce the impact of the
release on the surroundings.

Reduce amount of vapour formed/release


Once a release is in vapour form, the resulting cloud is nearly
impossible to control.

Table 1 provides additional methods and detail on


release mitigation techniques.
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Toxic Release
Model

Design Basis

Source Model

Figure 1
Dispersion Model

Release
Mitigation
Procedure

Prediction of
Release Impact

Is
Hazard
Acceptable ?

yes
Operate plant

No

Revise
-Process or plant
-Process operation
-Emergency response
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Table 1 Release mitigation approaches


Major Area

Countermeasures

Emergency
Response

Examples

Water sprays.
Water curtains.
Steam curtains.
Air curtains.
Deliberate ignition of explosive cloud.
Dilution.
Foams.
On-site communications.
Emergency shutdown equipment and
procedures.
Site evacuation.
Safe havens.
Personal protective equipment.
Medical treatment.
On-site emergency plans, procedures, training
and drills.
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Table 1 Release mitigation approaches


Major Area

Inherent Safety

Examples

Inventory reduction : Less chemicals


inventoried or less in process vessels.

Chemical substitution : Substitute a less


hazardous chemical for one more hazardous.

Process attenuation : Use lower temperatures


and pressures.
Plant physical integrity : Use better seals or
materials of construction.

Engineering
Design

Process integrity : Ensure proper operating


conditions and material purity.

Process design features for emergency control


: Emergency relief systems.

Spill containment : Dikes and spill vessels.


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Table 1 Release mitigation approaches


Major Area

Examples

Management

Early Vapor
Detection and
Warning

Operating policies and procedures.


Training for vapor release prevention and
control.
Audits and inspections.
Equipment testing.
Maintenance program.
Management of modifications and changes
to prevent new hazards.
Security.

Detection by sensors.
Detection by personnel.

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THANK YOU..