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MEI Statistics 2 Samples and hypothesis testing

Topic assessment
1.

A factory manager is specifying a new storage tank for a particular chemical. In


routine use, the tank will be filled to capacity each weekend. There should be
enough chemical to last until the next weekend, as emergency deliveries are very
expensive. On the other hand, money is wasted if an excessive amount of the
chemical is stored.
The volume of chemical varies from week to week and is modelled by a
Normally distributed random variable X. The manager is investigating the mean
of X. Data are available for a random sample of 15 weeks, giving the volumes of
the chemical used in each week. These are as follows (in litres).
1962
1909

1928
1940

1943
1897

1939
1924

1866
1978

1964
1944

1942
1992

1996

The standard deviation of X is taken from long experience to be 28 litres.


A 2000-litre tank will be specified if the mean of X is no more than 1930 litres.
Carry out a 5% significance test to examine whether a 2000-litre tank should be
specified, stating clearly the null and alternative hypotheses and the conclusion.
[8]
2.

A craftsman makes hand-made souvenirs. The time taken to make a souvenir is a


Normally distributed random variable with mean 34 minutes and standard
deviation 2.6 minutes.
The craftsman undertakes a training course to improve his skill. Afterwards, a
random sample of 8 times taken to make souvenirs is as follows (in minutes).
35.4

32.3

26.6

30.4

31.9

33.8

29.6

28.4

Assuming that the underlying standard deviation has not changed, test at the 0.1%
level whether the mean time taken to make a souvenir has decreased after the
training course.
[8]
3.

Psychologists are developing a new index of overall intelligence for 11-year old
children. It is assumed that the index is Normally distributed over the whole
underlying population and that the standard deviation of this distribution is 12. If
the index has been created correctly, its mean over the population should be 50.
The index is measured for a random sample of 100 11-year old children. It is
found that the sample mean value is 47.8. Test the hypothesis that the true mean
of the index is 50, against the alternative that it is not 50, at the 1% level of
significance.
[8]

4.

An office experiences a lack of reliability of its email system when transmitting


messages. Many emails are successfully transmitted at the first attempt, others are
eventually successfully transmitted, but only after more than one attempt, and
others are not successfully transmitted at all. The computer manager thinks there
may be an association between the success of transmission and the type of user at
the intended destination. Results for a random sample of 300 emails are as
follows.
Type of destination
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MEI S2 Hypothesis testing Assessment solutions

Successful at first
attempt
Successful after more
Transmission
than one attempt
Not successful
at all

Commercial
user

Government
department

University

100

57

23

21

14

13

31

21

20

(i) State the null and alternative hypotheses under examination in the usual
test applied to this contingency table.
[2]

5.

(ii) Carry out the test, at the 10% significance level.

[12]

(iii) Discuss your conclusions.

[4]

As part of a survey of interest in local elections, a random sample of 845 people


was taken in towns which did not have directly-elected mayors. The people were
classified according to age (< 30 or 30) and their stated level of interest (great
or little) in local elections. The results were as follows.

Age

< 30
30

Level of interest
Great
Little
49
216
145
435

(i) Carry out the usual test for independence, at the 5% significance level,
stating carefully the null and alternative hypotheses and briefly discussing
the conclusions.
[12]
At a later stage in the survey, a random sample of 1327 people was taken in
towns which had directly elected mayors. These people were classified similarly,
with the following results.

Age

< 30
30

Level of interest
Great
Little
118
314
260
635

(ii) The organisation that commissioned the survey then asked whether, for
people under the age of 30, the level of interest in local elections is
independent of whether or not there is a locally elected mayor. Using the data
in the tables above, write down the 2 2 table, including its margins, to be
analysed.
[4]
(iii) Explain why the usual test might not be appropriate for the 2 2 table you
have written down in part (ii).
[2]
Total 60 marks

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MEI S2 Hypothesis testing Assessment solutions


Solutions to topic assessment
1. H0: = 1930
H1: > 1930
where is the population mean volume in litres
x

29124
1941.6
15
z

1941.6 1930
1.6045
28 15

EITHER:
Test statistic
Right-hand tail so critical value at 5% level =
1(0.95) = 1.645
Critical region is z > 1.645
1.6045 < 1.645 so accept H0: there is not
sufficient evidence to suggests that the mean
volume is greater than 1930 litres, so a 2000-litre
tank should be specified.
OR:

Critical value for right-hand tail


28
1930 1.645
1941.89
15
X 1941.89
Critical region is
x is not in critical region so accept H0: there is not
sufficient evidence to suggests that the mean
volume is greater than 1930 litres, so a 2000-litre
tank should be specified.

1941.6 1930

28/ 15

1 1.6045
1

OR:

1 0.9457
P(X 1941.6) 0.0543
0.0543 > 0.05, so accept H0: there is not sufficient
evidence to suggests that the mean volume is
greater than 1930 litres, so a 2000-litre tank
should be specified.

[8]
2. H0: = 34
H1: < 34
where is the population mean time taken in minutes

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MEI S2 Hypothesis testing Assessment solutions


x

248.4
31.05
8
31.05 34
3.209
2.6 8

EITHER:
Test statistic
Lefthand tail so critical value at 0.1% level
1(0.001)
1(0.999) 3.090
Critical region is z < -3.090
-3.209 < -3.090, so reject H0: there is evidence to
suggest that the craftsmans mean time to make
a souvenir has decreased.
OR:

Critical value for left-hand tail =


2.6
34 3.090
31.16
8
Critical region is X 31.16
x is in critical region so reject H0: there is
evidence to suggest that the craftsmans mean
time to make a souvenir has decreased.
31.05 34

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3.209

OR:

1 (3.209)
1 0.9993
P(X < 31.05) 0.0007
0.0007 < 0.001 so reject H0: there is evidence to
suggest that the craftsmans mean time to make
a souvenir has decreased.

[8]
3. H0: = 50
H1: 50
where is the population mean value of the index.

x 47.8
47.8 50
1.8333
12/ 100
EITHER:
Test statistic
Two tail test at 1% significance so each tail is
0.5%
z

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MEI S2 Hypothesis testing Assessment solutions


1(0.005)
1
Critical value for left-hand tail (0.995) 2.576
Critical region is z < -2.576
-1.8333 > -2.576 so accept H0: there is not
sufficient evidence to suggest that the true
population mean is not 50.

OR:
is 0.5%

Two tail test at 1% significance so each tail

Critical value for left-hand tail


12
50 2.576
46.9088
100
X 46.9088
Critical region is
x is not in critical region so accept H0: there is
not sufficient evidence to suggest that the true
population mean is not 50.
47.8 50
(1.8333)
12/ 100
1 0.9666 0.0334

OR:

P(X < 47.8)


For two tail test at 1% significance level, compare
probability with
0.005.
0.0334 > 0.005
so accept H0: there is not sufficient evidence to
suggest that the true population mean is not 50.
[8]
4. (i) H0: there is no association between success of
transmission and type of
destination
H1: there is some association between success of
transmission and type of destination
[2]
(ii) Observed frequencies:
Type of destination
Governme
Commerci
nt
University
al user
departme
nt
Transmiss
ion

Successful
at first
attempt
Successful
after more
than one
attempt

Margina
l totals

100

57

23

180

21

14

13

48

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Not
successful
at all
Marginal totals

31

21

20

72

152

92

56

300

Expected frequencies:
Type of destination
Governme
Commerci
nt
University
al user
departme
nt
Successful
at first
attempt
Successful
Transmiss after more
ion
than one
attempt
Not
successful
at all
Marginal totals

Margina
l totals

91.2

55.2

33.6

180

24.32

14.72

8.96

48

36.48

22.08

13.44

72

152

92

56

300

(O E )2
E
Contributions to test statistic
:
Type of destination
Governme
Commerci
nt
University
al user
departme
nt

Transmiss
ion

Successful
at first
attempt
Successful
after more
than one
attempt
Not
successful
at all

0.8491

0.0587

3.344

0.4532

0.0352

1.8216

0.8232

0.0528

3.2019

Adding up the values in the table above gives


2 10.64
For a 3 3 table there are 2 2 = 4 degrees of
freedom
Critical value at 10% significance level with 4 is
7.779

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10.64 > 7.779 so reject H0: there is evidence to
suggest an association between the success of the
transmission and the type of destination.
[12]
(iii)
The largest contributions to the test statistic are
for universities.
When the destination is a university, far fewer
transmissions are successful at the first attempt than
would be expected (shown by the contribution to the
test statistic of 3.344), far more are unsuccessful than
would be expected (shown by the contribution of
3.2019), and more are successful after more than one
attempt (shown by the contribution of 1.8216). For
commercial users, more are successful at the first
attempt than would be expected, and fewer are
successful after more than one attempt or
unsuccessful than would be expected. For Government
departments the results are quite close to the
expected frequencies, shown by the very small
contributions to the test statistic.
[4]
5. (i) H0: there is no association between age group and
level of interest
H1: there is some association between age group and
level of interest
Observed frequencies
Level of interest
Great
Little
< 30
49
216
Age
145
435
30
Marginal totals
194
651

Marginal
totals
265
580
845

Expected frequencies
Level of interest
Great
Little
< 30
60.84
204.16
Age
133.16 446.84
30
Marginal totals
194
651

Marginal
totals
265
580
845

49 60.84

216 204.16 2
60.84
204.16
2
145 133.16
435 446.84 2

133.16
446.84
4.357

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MEI S2 Hypothesis testing Assessment solutions


For a 2 2 table there is 1 1 = 1 degree of freedom.
Critical value for 5% significance level with 1 is
3.841
4.357 > 3.841
so reject H0: there is evidence to suggest an
association between age group and level of interest.
Under 30s seem to have less interest than would be
expected, while the 30 and over age group seem to
have more interest than would be expected.
[12]
(ii)
Locall
Yes
y
electe
No
d
mayor
Marginal totals

Level of interest
Great
Little
118
314

Marginal
totals
432

49

216

265

167

530

697

[4]
(iii)
This is not a random sample of 697 people
classified over these four cells.
[2]

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