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You are on page 1of 8

Topic assessment

1.

routine use, the tank will be filled to capacity each weekend. There should be

enough chemical to last until the next weekend, as emergency deliveries are very

expensive. On the other hand, money is wasted if an excessive amount of the

chemical is stored.

The volume of chemical varies from week to week and is modelled by a

Normally distributed random variable X. The manager is investigating the mean

of X. Data are available for a random sample of 15 weeks, giving the volumes of

the chemical used in each week. These are as follows (in litres).

1962

1909

1928

1940

1943

1897

1939

1924

1866

1978

1964

1944

1942

1992

1996

A 2000-litre tank will be specified if the mean of X is no more than 1930 litres.

Carry out a 5% significance test to examine whether a 2000-litre tank should be

specified, stating clearly the null and alternative hypotheses and the conclusion.

[8]

2.

Normally distributed random variable with mean 34 minutes and standard

deviation 2.6 minutes.

The craftsman undertakes a training course to improve his skill. Afterwards, a

random sample of 8 times taken to make souvenirs is as follows (in minutes).

35.4

32.3

26.6

30.4

31.9

33.8

29.6

28.4

Assuming that the underlying standard deviation has not changed, test at the 0.1%

level whether the mean time taken to make a souvenir has decreased after the

training course.

[8]

3.

Psychologists are developing a new index of overall intelligence for 11-year old

children. It is assumed that the index is Normally distributed over the whole

underlying population and that the standard deviation of this distribution is 12. If

the index has been created correctly, its mean over the population should be 50.

The index is measured for a random sample of 100 11-year old children. It is

found that the sample mean value is 47.8. Test the hypothesis that the true mean

of the index is 50, against the alternative that it is not 50, at the 1% level of

significance.

[8]

4.

messages. Many emails are successfully transmitted at the first attempt, others are

eventually successfully transmitted, but only after more than one attempt, and

others are not successfully transmitted at all. The computer manager thinks there

may be an association between the success of transmission and the type of user at

the intended destination. Results for a random sample of 300 emails are as

follows.

Type of destination

1 of 8

22/07/14 MEI

Successful at first

attempt

Successful after more

Transmission

than one attempt

Not successful

at all

Commercial

user

Government

department

University

100

57

23

21

14

13

31

21

20

(i) State the null and alternative hypotheses under examination in the usual

test applied to this contingency table.

[2]

5.

[12]

[4]

was taken in towns which did not have directly-elected mayors. The people were

classified according to age (< 30 or 30) and their stated level of interest (great

or little) in local elections. The results were as follows.

Age

< 30

30

Level of interest

Great

Little

49

216

145

435

(i) Carry out the usual test for independence, at the 5% significance level,

stating carefully the null and alternative hypotheses and briefly discussing

the conclusions.

[12]

At a later stage in the survey, a random sample of 1327 people was taken in

towns which had directly elected mayors. These people were classified similarly,

with the following results.

Age

< 30

30

Level of interest

Great

Little

118

314

260

635

(ii) The organisation that commissioned the survey then asked whether, for

people under the age of 30, the level of interest in local elections is

independent of whether or not there is a locally elected mayor. Using the data

in the tables above, write down the 2 2 table, including its margins, to be

analysed.

[4]

(iii) Explain why the usual test might not be appropriate for the 2 2 table you

have written down in part (ii).

[2]

Total 60 marks

2 of 8

22/07/14 MEI

Solutions to topic assessment

1. H0: = 1930

H1: > 1930

where is the population mean volume in litres

x

29124

1941.6

15

z

1941.6 1930

1.6045

28 15

EITHER:

Test statistic

Right-hand tail so critical value at 5% level =

1(0.95) = 1.645

Critical region is z > 1.645

1.6045 < 1.645 so accept H0: there is not

sufficient evidence to suggests that the mean

volume is greater than 1930 litres, so a 2000-litre

tank should be specified.

OR:

28

1930 1.645

1941.89

15

X 1941.89

Critical region is

x is not in critical region so accept H0: there is not

sufficient evidence to suggests that the mean

volume is greater than 1930 litres, so a 2000-litre

tank should be specified.

1941.6 1930

28/ 15

1 1.6045

1

OR:

1 0.9457

P(X 1941.6) 0.0543

0.0543 > 0.05, so accept H0: there is not sufficient

evidence to suggests that the mean volume is

greater than 1930 litres, so a 2000-litre tank

should be specified.

[8]

2. H0: = 34

H1: < 34

where is the population mean time taken in minutes

3 of 8

22/07/14 MEI

x

248.4

31.05

8

31.05 34

3.209

2.6 8

EITHER:

Test statistic

Lefthand tail so critical value at 0.1% level

1(0.001)

1(0.999) 3.090

Critical region is z < -3.090

-3.209 < -3.090, so reject H0: there is evidence to

suggest that the craftsmans mean time to make

a souvenir has decreased.

OR:

2.6

34 3.090

31.16

8

Critical region is X 31.16

x is in critical region so reject H0: there is

evidence to suggest that the craftsmans mean

time to make a souvenir has decreased.

31.05 34

2.6/ 8

3.209

OR:

1 (3.209)

1 0.9993

P(X < 31.05) 0.0007

0.0007 < 0.001 so reject H0: there is evidence to

suggest that the craftsmans mean time to make

a souvenir has decreased.

[8]

3. H0: = 50

H1: 50

where is the population mean value of the index.

x 47.8

47.8 50

1.8333

12/ 100

EITHER:

Test statistic

Two tail test at 1% significance so each tail is

0.5%

z

4 of 8

22/07/14 MEI

1(0.005)

1

Critical value for left-hand tail (0.995) 2.576

Critical region is z < -2.576

-1.8333 > -2.576 so accept H0: there is not

sufficient evidence to suggest that the true

population mean is not 50.

OR:

is 0.5%

12

50 2.576

46.9088

100

X 46.9088

Critical region is

x is not in critical region so accept H0: there is

not sufficient evidence to suggest that the true

population mean is not 50.

47.8 50

(1.8333)

12/ 100

1 0.9666 0.0334

OR:

For two tail test at 1% significance level, compare

probability with

0.005.

0.0334 > 0.005

so accept H0: there is not sufficient evidence to

suggest that the true population mean is not 50.

[8]

4. (i) H0: there is no association between success of

transmission and type of

destination

H1: there is some association between success of

transmission and type of destination

[2]

(ii) Observed frequencies:

Type of destination

Governme

Commerci

nt

University

al user

departme

nt

Transmiss

ion

Successful

at first

attempt

Successful

after more

than one

attempt

Margina

l totals

100

57

23

180

21

14

13

48

5 of 8

22/07/14 MEI

Not

successful

at all

Marginal totals

31

21

20

72

152

92

56

300

Expected frequencies:

Type of destination

Governme

Commerci

nt

University

al user

departme

nt

Successful

at first

attempt

Successful

Transmiss after more

ion

than one

attempt

Not

successful

at all

Marginal totals

Margina

l totals

91.2

55.2

33.6

180

24.32

14.72

8.96

48

36.48

22.08

13.44

72

152

92

56

300

(O E )2

E

Contributions to test statistic

:

Type of destination

Governme

Commerci

nt

University

al user

departme

nt

Transmiss

ion

Successful

at first

attempt

Successful

after more

than one

attempt

Not

successful

at all

0.8491

0.0587

3.344

0.4532

0.0352

1.8216

0.8232

0.0528

3.2019

2 10.64

For a 3 3 table there are 2 2 = 4 degrees of

freedom

Critical value at 10% significance level with 4 is

7.779

6 of 8

22/07/14 MEI

10.64 > 7.779 so reject H0: there is evidence to

suggest an association between the success of the

transmission and the type of destination.

[12]

(iii)

The largest contributions to the test statistic are

for universities.

When the destination is a university, far fewer

transmissions are successful at the first attempt than

would be expected (shown by the contribution to the

test statistic of 3.344), far more are unsuccessful than

would be expected (shown by the contribution of

3.2019), and more are successful after more than one

attempt (shown by the contribution of 1.8216). For

commercial users, more are successful at the first

attempt than would be expected, and fewer are

successful after more than one attempt or

unsuccessful than would be expected. For Government

departments the results are quite close to the

expected frequencies, shown by the very small

contributions to the test statistic.

[4]

5. (i) H0: there is no association between age group and

level of interest

H1: there is some association between age group and

level of interest

Observed frequencies

Level of interest

Great

Little

< 30

49

216

Age

145

435

30

Marginal totals

194

651

Marginal

totals

265

580

845

Expected frequencies

Level of interest

Great

Little

< 30

60.84

204.16

Age

133.16 446.84

30

Marginal totals

194

651

Marginal

totals

265

580

845

49 60.84

216 204.16 2

60.84

204.16

2

145 133.16

435 446.84 2

133.16

446.84

4.357

7 of 8

22/07/14 MEI

For a 2 2 table there is 1 1 = 1 degree of freedom.

Critical value for 5% significance level with 1 is

3.841

4.357 > 3.841

so reject H0: there is evidence to suggest an

association between age group and level of interest.

Under 30s seem to have less interest than would be

expected, while the 30 and over age group seem to

have more interest than would be expected.

[12]

(ii)

Locall

Yes

y

electe

No

d

mayor

Marginal totals

Level of interest

Great

Little

118

314

Marginal

totals

432

49

216

265

167

530

697

[4]

(iii)

This is not a random sample of 697 people

classified over these four cells.

[2]

8 of 8

22/07/14 MEI

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