TOPLINES Questions 1-13, 15-30 held for future releases.

[ASK OF DEMOCRATS AND LEAN DEMOCRATS]
14. Here is a list of possible candidates for the Democratic nomination for president in 2016. If
the 2016 Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for
whom would you vote? [RANDOMIZE 1-4]

Joe Biden
Lincoln Chafee
Hillary Clinton
Lawrence Lessig
Martin O’Malley
Bernie Sanders
Elizabeth Warren
Jim Webb
Someone else
Wouldn’t vote/ Don’t
know
No answer

10.27-29.15
RV
NA
NA
50
1
1
30
NA
NA
5
12

10.13-15.15
RV
10
45
1
31
NA
1
2
9

9.17-18.15
RV
15
41
1
29
NA
1
3
9

8.7-10.15
RV
11
49
NA
1
25
NA
1
4
9

7.20-26.15
RV
7
48
NA
1
26
NA
1
3
13

4.6-8.15
RV
7
NA
50
NA
2
5
16
1
1
19

1

1

1

1

1

-

METHODOLOGY
The NBC News Online Poll was conducted online by SurveyMonkey October 27-29, 2015 among a
national sample of 8,706 adults aged 18 and over. Respondents for this non-probability survey were
selected using an algorithm from among the nearly three million people who take surveys on the
SurveyMonkey platform each day.
Data for this survey have been weighted for age, race, sex, education, and region using the Census
Bureau’s American Community Survey to reflect the demographic composition of the United States.
Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a
probability sample, no estimates of sampling error can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to
multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement
error. Polls conducted in one day may include additional error due to the limited time period that
panelists have to respond to and complete the survey.
To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap
confidence interval to produce an error estimate, meaning we use the weighted data to generate 5000
independent samples and calculate the 95% confidence intervals for the weighted average.
When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into
consideration in much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of
sampling error. For example, if 47 percent of voters say they support Candidate A and 43 percent of
voters support Candidate B, and the error estimate is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, Candidate A
could be supported by as low as 44 percent of voters and Candidate B could have as high as 47 percent
of support. Therefore, Candidate A does not have a "lead."

The following table provides the unweighted sample sizes and the error estimate that has been
calculated in place of the margin of sampling error for a variable that is expected to have close to an
even split in most groupings (such as gender):

Group

Unweighted N

Plus or minus

Total sample

8,706

1.5 percentage points

Republican RVs

3,387

2.3 percentage points

Democrat RVs

1,226

3.7 percentage points

18-29

1,247

3.7 percentage points

30-44

2,679

2.7 percentage points

45-64

3,177

2.4 percentage points

65+

1,603

3.5 percentage points

White

6,631

1.7 percentage points

Black

737

4.6 percentage points

Hispanic

682

4.9 percentage points

Other

656

5.0 percentage points