TOPLINES Question 14 previously released; questions 1-5, 6-12, 19-30 held for future releases.

6. Which best describes how you feel about the way the federal government works?
Satisfied,
Enthusiastic but not enthusiastic
10.27-29.15

1

Dissatisfied, but
not angry

Angry

47

35

14

[ASK OF REPUBLICANS AND LEAN REPUBLICANS]
13. Here is a list of possible candidates for the Republican nomination for president in
2016. If the 2016 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held
today, for whom would you vote? [RANDOMIZE 1-15]
10.27-29.15

10.13-15.15

9.17-18.15
RV

8.7-8.15
RV

7.13-19.15
RV

4.6-8.15
RV

RV

RV

Jeb Bush

5

5

8

7

9

12

Ben Carson

26

23

14

10

8

7

Chris Christie

2

2

3

1

3

8

Ted Cruz

10

6

7

14

6

7

Carly Fiorina

4

6

11

8

2

NA

Jim Gilmore

-

-

-

-

NA

NA

Lindsey Graham

-

-

-

1

1

1

Mike Huckabee

2

3

2

5

5

6

Bobby Jindal

-

1

-

1

1

2

John Kasich

2

3

2

2

3

2

George Pataki

-

-

1

-

-

NA

Rand Paul

2

2

3

5

6

7

Rick Perry

NA

NA

NA

1

2

3

Marco Rubio

9

9

7

8

8

6

Rick Santorum

-

-

-

-

1

NA

Donald Trump

26

28

29

22

22

NA

Scott Walker

NA

NA

3

7

10

12

Someone else

1

2

2

1

2

5

Wouldn’t vote/ Don’t
know

8

7

6

6

11

21

No answer

1

2

1

1

2

2

15. Did you happen to watch the debate among the Republican candidates for president
that was held on Wednesday night, or not?
10.289.178.729.15
18.15 8.15*
RV
RV
RV
N= 3,154
I watched both debates

20

23

18

I watched the first debate that

3

3

2

14

13

21

42

32

33

I did not watch the debates and
haven’t really followed news
coverage about them

21

27

25

No answer

1

2

2

included four candidates
I watched the second debate
that included ten candidates
I did not watch the debates live,
but followed coverage of them in
the news

*Slightly different wording was used to match previous debate dates and number of candidates in debates.

[ASK IF Q15=1-4; Q15=5 GO TO Q19]
16. From what you have heard and read, who do you think won or did the best job in the
Republican debates?
Among Republican &
Republican Leaning RVs
who watched or followed coverage

10.28-29.15
N=1226

9.17-18.15

8.7-8.15*

Jeb Bush

2

7

2

Ben Carson

15

7

8

Chris Christie

2

4

2

Ted Cruz

24

4

12

Carly Fiorina

7

36

22

Jim Gilmore

NA

NA

-

Lindsey Graham

1

1

-

Mike Huckabee

1

1

5

Bobby Jindal

-

-

-

John Kasich

1

-

2

George Pataki

-

-

-

Rand Paul

1

1

3

Rick Perry

NA

NA

-

Marco Rubio

20

8

13

Rick Santorum

-

-

-

Donald Trump

17

21

18

Scott Walker

NA

1

3

None of them

8

8

11

*Answers were randomized

17. From what you have
heard and read, who do
you think did the worst job in the Republican debates? [ROTATE 1-15]
No answer

2

2

1

Among Republican &
Republican Leaning RVs
who watched or followed coverage
10.28-29-.15
N=1226

9.17-18.15

8.7-8.15*

Jeb Bush

38

10

11

Ben Carson

2

2

1

Chris Christie

3

4

9

Ted Cruz

1

3

1

Carly Fiorina

3

2

2

Jim Gilmore

NA

NA

2

Lindsey Graham

5

5

8

Mike Huckabee

2

3

1

Bobby Jindal

1

2

1

John Kasich

5

4

2

George Pataki

4

5

2

Rand Paul

6

14

14

Rick Perry

NA

NA

2

Marco Rubio

2

-

1

Rick Santorum

2

2

1

Donald Trump

9

19

29

Scott Walker

NA

6

1

None of them

14

17

13

No answer

2

4

1

*Answers were randomized

18. Based on what you have heard and read about the debates, who do you think would do
the best job at handling the United States economy?
Among Republican &
Republican Leaning RVs
who watched or followed coverage

10.28-29.15
N=1226

Jeb Bush

4

Ben Carson

11

Chris Christie

1

Ted Cruz

14

Carly Fiorina

6

Lindsey Graham

-

Mike Huckabee

1

Bobby Jindal

-

John Kasich

4

George Pataki

-

Rand Paul

2

Marco Rubio

7

Rick Santorum

-

Donald Trump

41

None of them

5

No answer

2

METHODOLOGY
The NBC News Online Poll was conducted online by SurveyMonkey October 27-29, 2015 among a
national sample of 8,706 adults aged 18 and over. Respondents for this non-probability survey
were selected using an algorithm from among the nearly three million people who take surveys on
the SurveyMonkey platform each day.
Data for this survey have been weighted for age, race, sex, education, and region using the Census
Bureau’s American Community Survey to reflect the demographic composition of the United States.
Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a
probability sample, no estimates of sampling error can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to
multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and
measurement error. Polls conducted in one day may include additional error due to the limited
time period that panelists have to respond to and complete the survey.
To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap
confidence interval to produce an error estimate, meaning we use the weighted data to generate
5000 independent samples and calculate the 95% confidence intervals for the weighted average.
When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into
consideration in much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin
of sampling error. For example, if 47 percent of voters say they support Candidate A and 43 percent
of voters support Candidate B, and the error estimate is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points,
Candidate A could be supported by as low as 44 percent of voters and Candidate B could have as
high as 47 percent of support. Therefore, Candidate A does not have a "lead."
The following table provides the unweighted sample sizes and the error estimate that has been
calculated in place of the margin of sampling error for a variable that is expected to have close to an
even split in most groupings (such as gender):

Group

Unweighted N

Plus or minus

Total sample

8,706

1.5 percentage points

Republican RVs

3,387

2.3 percentage points

Democrat RVs

1,226

3.7 percentage points

18-29

1,247

3.7 percentage points

30-44

2,679

2.7 percentage points

45-64

3,177

2.4 percentage points

65+

1,603

3.5 percentage points

White

6,631

1.7 percentage points

Black

737

4.6 percentage points

Hispanic

682

4.9 percentage points

Other

656

5.0 percentage points

1,226

3.8 percentage points

Rep RV Debate Watchers