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Climate Change in the tropical Andes Impacts and consequences for

glaciation and water resources


Part III: Future recommendations
A report prepared by

MATHIAS VUILLE
with contributions from
RAYMOND S. BRADLEY
BERNARD FRANCOU
GEORG KASER
BRYAN G. MARK

Climate Change in the tropical Andes


Impacts and consequences for glaciation
and water resources
Part III: Future recommendations
A report for CONAM and the World Bank
prepared by

MATHIAS VUILLE
(University of Massachusetts)

with contributions from


RAYMOND S. BRADLEY (University of Massachusetts)
BERNARD FRANCOU (IRD)
GEORG KASER (University of Innsbruck)
BRYAN G. MARK (Ohio State University)

Amherst, Massachusetts, 29. May, 2007

TABLE OF CONTENTS
SUMMARY ......................................................................................................................2
1) INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................3
2) IMPROVE THE OBSERVATIONS .................................................................4
3) IMPROVE THE MODEL PREDICTIONS .....................................................8
4) IMPROVE COLLABORATION AND DISSEMINATION ......................12
REFERENCES ............................................................................................................13

SUMMARY
This report recommends several research avenues that would allow for a better
assessment of future climate change and its impact on glaciation and runoff in the tropical
Andes.
First and foremost the current monitoring network needs to be expanded, replaced
and improved upon. A suite of high-elevation observation stations including both
automated weather stations and glacier mass balance networks is needed. This would
allow monitoring climate change at the elevation of the glaciers and not simply at low
elevations, where the changes are likely to be much less dramatic. Such observations
could be combined with new remote sensing data sets from space to obtain a spatially
complete picture.
Secondly the climate model applications in the region need to be improved by
increased application of higher resolution (regional) climate models. It is desirable that
several different models be run in ensemble mode to assess intra-model differences. The
model performance over a region with such complex topography as the Andes needs to
be carefully validated under modern conditions before SRES-IPCC simulations of future
climate can be evaluated. These latter simulations should again be run based on several
models and under different emissions scenarios, such as A2 and B2.
Climate change simulations can tell us how climate might change in the Andes by
the end of the 21st century, but to understand what the impacts on glaciation and runoff
are they need to be coupled with a tropical glacier-climate model. When applied to
selected target catchments, coupled glacier-climate model simulations can provide us
with estimates of when and by how much glaciation and runoff will change. For example
they may be able to tell us when and in what catchments glaciers will completely
disappear, and at what fraction of their original size they may find a new equilibrium in
other catchments. The ramifications of this glacier retreat (or disappearance) for runoff
and water availability can equally be assessed with such models.
To make these results relevant for water users, there needs to be a framework in
place to disseminate the results in a way, which is scientifically correct but also socially
relevant and applicable to stakeholders, decision makers and water users. Options for
such a framework, which should include collaboration with national entities in Ecuador,
Peru, and Bolivia and capacity building through training and education of students at host
institutions involved, are discussed.

1) INTRODUCTION
The previous reports have outlined the current scientific knowledge of climate
change and its impacts on tropical Andean glaciers and hydrology (Part I: The scientific
basis) and the ongoing research and monitoring activities by the various institutions
currently active in the region (Part II: Climate and Glacier Monitoring). They provide
the scientific basis that can be used in support of the decision-making process to find the
best adaptation and mitigation strategies for the region and an overview of the currently
installed scientific network. It is clear that some practical measures to adapt and prepare
for future changes in runoff behavior need to be implemented without delay (e.g.
conservation, shift to less water-intensive agriculture, creation of water reservoirs, etc.,
see Vergara, 2005), but at the same time significant progress needs to be made on the
scientific front. This third and final report (Part III: Future Recommendations) suggests a
number of research strategies that would allow answering some of the most urgent
scientific questions related to Andean climate change. These strategies include:
a) improvement and expansion of the current monitoring network,
b) combining improved surface measurements with advanced remote sensing and
GIS applications,
c) improved climate modeling at higher resolution (regional climate models), with
a variety of different models and based on a number of different IPCC-SRES
emission scenarios,
d) coupling of these regional climate models with a tropical glacier-climate model
to assess the implications for glacier mass balance and water resources at a
catchment-scale level, and finally
e) improved collaboration and dissemination of results to local stakeholders in a
fashion that is not only scientifically relevant, but also socially applicable.
All these recommendations come with significant costs, but given the observed
changes already under way and the dramatic changes projected for the future (see Part I)
it is quite obvious that adapting to these changes will be inevitable. It is our firm belief
that implementation of adequate adaptation strategies is not possible without sufficient
knowledge and a high level of scientific understanding of the processes involved. For
example, one of the emerging results from studies performed to date is that the
hydrologic response to climate change may vary significantly from one catchment to the
next, depending on the degree of glaciation, catchment hypsometry and the sensitivity of
glaciers to various climate parameters. If we add to these differences in catchment
response all the uncertainties surrounding future greenhouse gas emissions (which SRES
scenario is most likely?), and all the discrepancies between different regional climate
models, it is very clear that we still have along way to go to better understand the impacts
of future climate change on Andean glaciers. Investing in climate monitoring and basic
scientific research, therefore, in our opinion is money well spent.

2) IMPROVE THE OBSERVATIONS


One of the most urgent tasks is to expand and improve the existing observational
network of automated weather stations and glacier mass balance networks. The currently
installed network is inadequate to accurately monitor the rapid changes that are taking
place in the Andean climate and cryosphere. Many of the weather stations and stream
gauges currently operating were installed in the middle of the 20th century (Mark and
Seltzer, 2005). They are old and outdated and need to be replaced with more up-to date
instrumentation (see Figure 1 for an example of an automated high-elevation weather
station). It is hard to believe but true, that we are currently not in a position to accurately
monitor and document the rapid changes taking place at high-elevation sites in the
tropical Andes. The anticipated expansion of the installed network by eight stations (2
each in four countries), financed by the World Bank, therefore serves as a very welcome
major step in the right direction.

Figure 1: Example of a high-elevation AWS design from the summit of Sajama volcano, 6550m, Cordillera
occidental, Bolivia (photo credit: D.R. Hardy).

Such a network, in a first phase should focus on certain target areas, but
eventually it needs to be expanded to become a connected network of sites along climatic
gradients from north to south as well as across the Andes from east to west (Francou et
al., 2005; Coudrain et al., 2005; Kaser et al., 2005; Casassa et al., 2007). It is of utmost
importance that these stations be deployed at high elevation, near or on glaciers, where
projected changes in climate are large, and not simply at low elevations, where the
changes are likely to be much less dramatic (Bradley et al., 2004, 2006). The planned
Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) of the World Meteorological Organization for

example, does not adequately address this problem. GCOS is a plan for long-term, high
quality observations at rural locations to establish a global climate monitoring network
that will provide unequivocal data to assess climate changes (Bradley et al., 2004). As
shown in Figure 2 all planned GCOS stations are well below the freezing levels and only
3 stations are currently planned for elevations above 3000 m in the entire transect. It is
evident from Figure 2 that the GCOS network will not adequately sample the higher
elevation zones of the American Cordillera where the impact of changes in climate are
likely to be greatest.

Figure 2: Mean annual change in temperature (2 CO2 minus control runs) derived from 7 models, and
compared to the planned GCOS network (squares). More stations at higher elevations are needed
to properly assess the model projections and monitor the large changes that the models indicate
will affect high montane regions. The small black triangles represent the highest elevation
mountains in countries along the transect (Bradley et al., 2004).

Finally these stations would provide valuable information not only for climate
change detection and attribution, but also for validation of model studies. Currently it is
very difficult to asses how realistic climate models simulate climate at such high
elevations sites, simply because of the lack of in-situ climate observations. Interpreting
model projections of future climate change however, fist requires an accurate model
validation of the present-day control runs.
An additional benefit of installing such a network on glaciers would be that they
could be equipped to record much needed information on glacier energy balance. So far
only a handful of stations with these capabilities have been installed on tropical Andean
glaciers (see Part II: Climate and Glacier Monitoring). The network installed and
maintained by the IRD seems a logical starting point from where to expand. However, it
is important that the glacier monitoring network, in a next step be extended to include
larger glaciers as well. We desperately need more data on the behavior of large glaciers,
which may show less sensitivity to climate change and therefore offer the best hope to
retain some catchments water retention capacity in a warmer world. Despite the logistic

difficulties, these large glaciers must also be monitored in the future, albeit probably
based on new techniques, such as repeated laser scanning.
Installing new AWS is urgent, but it is equally important that a commitment for
maintaining these stations for a number of years (preferable a decade or longer) is made.
The value of theses stations increases with the length of their climate record retrieved,
and installing new stations is rather pointless if their maintenance and proper functioning
can not be guaranteed for at least the next 5-10 years.
Servicing and repairing stations is costly and labor-intensive, but without such a
maintenance data quality will rapidly deteriorate and the stations will eventually be lost.
AWS located on glaciers for example need to be constantly raised or lowered in order to
prevent them from being buried by snow or melting out and tipping over (depending
whether they are installed on the ablation or accumulation zone). Frequent exchange of
instruments is necessary in order to recalibrate sensors or replace damaged instruments.
In summary, the financial costs involved in maintaining such a network for several years
are high and go well beyond the initial costs of station deployment. It involves costs for
spare parts and instruments, costs for training local personnel and finally a commitment
for financial support of the persons in charge of maintaining these stations over a period
of several years.
To effectively discern the changing climatic impact on glaciers and hydrology
that affects human society, glacier mass balance and climate monitoring need to be
combined with instrumentation throughout the watershed, culminating in stream
discharge. Stream discharge measurements are a critical component of the network
because they are an effective net yield of the hydrological cycle for the watershed.
Combined with good precipitation gauges, these provide first order mass flux terms to
determine the relative role of glacier melt water where people utilize the water resource.
Finally, while networks of glacier, climate and runoff measurements sites are
important and needed, they are also costly, labor-intensive and by their very nature
limited in space. They should therefore be complemented by increased use and
application of available remote sensing techniques and data sets from space. New
advances in combining digital elevation models, SRTM data, GPS and satellite data such
as Landsat, ASTER and SPOT, offer the opportunity to give a more detailed large-scale
picture of changes in both the atmosphere and the cryosphere. While they are no
substitute for on-site measurements, they can provide a much needed complementary
picture. The Peruvian Andes, for example have been selected as a priority site to monitor
glaciers with ASTER data under the Global Land Ice Measurements from Space
(GLIMS) umbrella (Mark and Seltzer, 2005). Initial studies of glacier monitoring from
space have shown very encouraging results (e.g. Georges, 2004; Jordan et al., 2005;
Silverio and Jaquet, 2005; Raup et al., 2006, Racoviteanu et al., 2007). New initiatives,
such as the Japanese Space Agency Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) will
provide additional, high-resolution remote sensing capabilities to monitor glacier change
in the tropical Andes (W. Vergara, pers. comm., 2007).

3) IMPROVE THE MODEL PREDICTIONS


Apart from the needed improvements in on-site and remote monitoring, it has also
become increasingly clear that we need better and more detailed scenarios of future
climate change in this region of steep and complex topography. Output from GCMs can
at best provide us with a broad-brush perspective. High-resolution regional climate
models, which allow for a better simulation of climate in mountain regions, coupled with
tropical glacier-mass balance models, such as the one used by Juen et al. (2007) could
provide the necessary scientific breakthrough to better understand and predict future
climate changes and their impacts on tropical Andean glaciers and associated runoff.
Vuille (2006) recently proposed such a modeling strategy, which should allow us to
establish robust projections of how glaciation and runoff will change in this region at the
end of the 21st century. Figure 3 shows how such a research strategy, involving a
multidisciplinary team, could provide much needed information for policy- and decisionmakers, with potentially far reaching implications.

Figure 3: Flow chart of proposed modeling and validation studies, and participation of members during
the stages of the project (Vuille, 2006).

Step 1 Regional Climate Modeling. Regional climate models (RCMs) can be


used to simulate both current and future climate in the tropical Andes. They can provide
much more realistic simulations of present and future climate change in the Andes than
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would be possible based on GCMs. There are however, significant differences between
models, which makes it imperative to compare results from more than just one model
(Roads et al., 2003). Results can also differ depending on model resolution (Rojas, 2006),
domain choice (Rauscher et al., 2006), or whether the driving model is based on
reanalysis data or data from a GCM (Seth and Rojas, 2003; Rojas and Seth, 2003; Seth et
al., 2004, 2006). To date no comprehensive assessment exists regarding regional climate
model performance for the Andes. Clearly the Andes provide a particularly difficult
challenge, given the complex topography with steep climatic gradients ranging from
tropical rainforest in the east to absolute desert on the Pacific coast. On the other hand,
however, the Andes are also a region where regional climate models could yield the most
significant improvement, as the coarse GCMs are not capable of resolving the geographic
complexity of regional climate. For the central Andes (~300 km wide) for example, at
least 6 (12) grid-points are placed over the mountain range and its slopes for a 50 (25) km
resolution; in contrast the Andes are represented by only 2 or 3 grid points in a coarser
GCM of 2.5 resolution. Figure 4 illustrates the improved spatial resolution of a regional
model, by showing the remarkably detailed total cloud cover fields along the Andes.
These fields show significantly more spatial detail and structure, especially along the
Andes, than similar diagnostics in a GCM or in reanalysis data.

Fig. 4: Total fractional cloud cover simulated in PRECIS for DJF 1979/80 (left) and JJA 1980 (right).

In the research strategy proposed in Figure 3 two regional climate models are
used: PRECIS, which is a new version of the Hadley Center Regional Climate Modeling
System, and RegCM3. Both models are available at the Climate System Research Center
and could therefore be run at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. PRECIS can be
run under Linux on a high-end PC at either 50 50 km or 25 25 km resolution.
RegCM3 is commonly run at 50 50 km or 80 80 km resolution. Potentially, if

available, a third model, such the Earth Simulator from the Meteorological Research
Institute, Japan could supplement this suggested modeling strategy.
Step 2 Model validation. All climate models intended for use in future climate
change scenarios need to be validated under present day conditions first, to assess their
capabilities of accurately simulating current climate. A model which can not reproduce
todays observed climate with reasonable accuracy will likely not provide adequate
projections of future climate change either. In addition, if certain biases in the regional
climate model (e.g. excess precipitation in the tropical Andes) are known, these can be
taken into account when interpreting results from future climate change scenarios.
Validation of regional climate models with observational data (both in-situ and from
space) is therefore an important step toward a realistic prediction of regional climate
change. Finally it is important to keep in mind that a higher resolution does not
automatically imply a better model performance. If the GCM produces an erroneous
climate over South America, so will the RCM. Any errors in the GCM predictions will be
carried through to the RCM simulation.
Step 3 Glacier climate Modeling. Once the models have been validated and
their biases are known, the modeled climate data can serve as input into a glacier-climate
model to evaluate how glaciers and glacial runoff respond to climate. The best currently
available model is the ITGG 2.0-R, developed by the Innsbruck Tropical Glaciology
Group. It has the advantage of being specifically designed to meet the particular climatic
conditions of glaciers in the tropics (Kaser et al., 2005). The ITGG 2.0-R model
simulates tropical glacier mass balance with reasonable accuracy and it has been
successfully applied to simulate the seasonal cycle of mass balance (Kaser, 2001), as well
as seasonal and interannual variations of glacial runoff (Juen, 2006; Juen et al., 2007) in
the Cordillera Blanca in Peru. The glacier-climate model is applied to selected
catchments, which will have to be selected based on certain requirements and priorities.
Obviously catchments where downstream water use is heavily dependent on glacial
runoff are of highest priority, but validation of the glacier-climate model requires that
mass balance and runoff records of sufficient quality are available from the catchments
(see step 4). The main challenge which up to now has precluded the more wide-spread
use of this and other glacier-climate models in the tropics is the need to feed them with
climatic input data of high enough quality so that accurate predictions of glacier advance
or retreat are possible. Unfortunately the necessary input variables, such as accumulation,
albedo, atmospheric emissivity, incoming solar radiation and air temperature are not
routinely measured in the tropical Andes. Hence very little is known how these
parameters have changed in recent decades, let alone how they might be affected by
increased greenhouse gas concentrations. This is where regional climate models can
provide a significant scientific advance as they offer the opportunity to improve the
simulation of these parameters, but also to assess how they might change under various
greenhouse gas scenarios.
Step 4 Model Data Comparison. Similar to the RCM, the ITGG 2.0-R model
also needs to be calibrated and validated before it can be used for future glacier-climate
scenarios. This validation is done by comparing the simulated mass balance and runoff

(when fed with data from the regional model) with observational records. This necessary
validation procedure explains why the application of the model is restricted to catchments
where mass balance or runoff records are available. Juen et al. (2007) for example
successfully simulated the observed runoff in the Llanganucco catchment in the
Cordillera Blanca with this model (Fig. 5). The comparison of mass balance and runoff
simulations fed with data from the regional climate model with observational records
allows assessing the uncertainty and accuracy of the present-day simulations. This is an
important step to quantify the error bars in the climate change simulations (Step 5).

Figure 5: Modeled (qmod) and measured (qmeas) monthly mean runoff depths for the validation period
1975 to 1985 in the Llanganucco catchment, Cordillera Blanca, Peru (Juen et al., 2007).

Step 5 Climate Change Assessment and Impacts on Glaciation and Runoff.


Once the ITGG 2.0-R model simulates streamflow that is comparable to observations
(Figure 5), the entire cascade of the flow chart in Figure 3 is rerun, but this time based on
IPCC- SRES scenarios. These final analyses will yield estimates of how glacier mass
balance at selected target sites in the Andes will change under different greenhouse gas
emission scenarios (for example for the years 2070-2100) and how it might affect
streamflow and water resources in these previously glaciated watersheds. Vuille (2006)
suggested focusing on the A2 and B2 simulations, as these are high and low emissions
scenarios, which can bracket the most likely climate change, but theoretically these
simulations can be run with any emission scenario. While the IPCC SRES-A2 scenario is
based on a medium-high emission and high population-growth scenario (15 billion
people by 2100), greenhouse gas emissions and population growth are much lower in the
B2 scenario (10.4 billion by 2100). Although there is no most likely scenario, the
SRES-A2 simulation is expected to give a clear signal of climate change against the noise
of natural variability, thereby providing robust patterns of change. The B2 scenario on the
other hand will provide a lower-end projection of climate change. When combined and
run as ensembles based on different RCMs , the two scenarios span a broad range of
future changes in emissions and population growth and will yield an estimate of the upper
and lower bounds of the expected change in climate, glaciation and runoff.

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4) IMPROVE COLLABORATION AND DISSEMINATION


A number of recent workshops have tried to establish a collaborative research
network in the Andes to improve collaboration and integration, and to facilitate
information and data-sharing between agencies and institutions (Francou and Coudrain,
2005, Diaz et al., 2006, Casassa et al., 2007). The research frame work proposed in the
previous sections could equally be used to initiate a closer collaboration and jump-start
this process, once adequate funding is in place. It is a research strategy which combines
the scientific strengths of the various institutions involved, such as climate dynamics and
climate modeling (UMass-Amherst), on-site climate- and glacier- monitoring (IRD),
glacier-climate modeling (ITGG Innsbruck), and glacier-runoff hydrology (Ohio State). It
is only by having such a multi-disciplinary team, where every partner involved brings his
or her scientific expertise to the table, that scientific breakthroughs and significant
advances will be made. Given the challenges that nations such as Peru or Bolivia face,
such an effort will yield a high return compared to the costs required. Much of the
proposed work could be done in collaboration with local partner agencies in Ecuador,
Peru and Bolivia. Such collaboration should include exchange of scientific expertise,
education and capacity building. This could be achieved, for example, through summer
schools (one is already planned by IRD for September 2007 in Lima), fellowships, and
through training and education of South American students at the involved partner
universities in the U.S., Austria or France. A successful training course in mass balance
measurements for example, was organized in La Paz in 2005 by IRD, the International
Commission on Snow and Ice (ICSI) and UNESCO (Francou and Ramirez, 2005).
To be truly relevant and successful, scientific results need to be disseminated to
the public, especially to local populations affected by climate change, but also to
stakeholders and decision makers at various levels. After all the glacier-climate research
in the tropical Andes is relevant not only from a purely scientific stand point but has very
direct and immediate applications in the region. In addition the problems surrounding a
future water shortage in Andean countries are not only climatic in nature but also a result
of the economic and social developments in the region. One of the challenges to scientists
is therefore to provide scientific information which is not only scientifically relevant but
also socially applicable (Mark, 2007). One starting point for such an exchange would be
to organize a meeting of all partners involved (scientists, decision makers, users), with
visits to selected catchments where the most significant impacts on glacier hydrology are
expected. This could be a meeting under the umbrella of the Mountain Research Initiative
(MRI), or organized by the World Bank, CONAM or the IRD. This would ascertain that
both climatic and socio-economic factors be taken into consideration when discussing
adaptation and mitigation strategies. Such a discourse between scientists, policy- and
decision makers and water users might also help closing the disjuncture, often observed
between scientific and technical studies examining hydrologic resources, the national
institutions involved in water management and the demands and needs of the local
population (Young and Lipton, 2006). It is our hope that the three reports provided here
will in some way contribute to this goal.

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