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American Association for Public Opinion Research

Testing Public Opinion


Author(s): George Gallup
Source: The Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 2, No. 1, Special Supplement: Public Opinion in a
Democracy (Jan., 1938), pp. 8-14
Published by: Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Association for Public
Opinion Research
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2744769
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TESTING

PUBLIC

OPINION

The American
Institute
GEORGEGALLUP,Director,
ofPublicOpinion

thenational
Lord Bryce'sanalysisof the role "devisemeanswhereby
of public opinionin a democracy will shouldbe quicklyknown."So
did he regardthisprobHe important
was particularlynoteworthy.
knew thatin no countryis public lem thathe said the nextand final
as in theUnited stagein ourAmericanformof govopinionso powerful
States,and he saw clearlywherein ernmentwould be reached"if the
of citizenswere
ruleby publicopinionfallsshortin willof themajority
at all times,
weakness to becomeascertainable
The greatest
thiscountry.
by public opinion, withoutthe need of its passing
of government
of ascer- througha bodyof representativesBrycesaid,is thedifficulty
possiblywithouttheneedof voting
tainingit.
at all."
Brycesaw clearlyhow inadequate machinery
A whileago PresidentRoosevelt
are the meansof knowingthe will
of thepeoplein this said thatthemajority
of Americans
of themajority
Such is the din of voices are in favorof his Courtproposal.
couintry.
here,Brycewrotein his book The Was he rightor was he wrong?
thatit is
AmericanCommonwealth,
How shallwe interpret
the great
in the I936 election
hard to say which cry prevails- voteregistered
of the for Mr. Roosevelt?Was it a manwhichcomesfromthethroats
ofthe date to liberalizethe Court? Was
many,whichfromthethroats
few. "The organsof opinion,"he it a mandateto continuethe prosaid, "seemalmostas numerousas gramof spending?Was it a manand theyare date to revivethe NRA? To disthepeoplethemselves,
their tributewealth?Or was it merelya
all engaged in representing
own viewas thatof the'people.'" tributeto a greatpersonality?
out,
pointed
Bryce
Evenan election,
Was the greatmajorityreceived
couldat bestdo no morethantest by Hoover in I928 a mandateto
thedivisionof opinionbetweentwo retainProhibition?
Was ita mandate
or threegreat parties,leavingun- to continuethe policiesof the ecoansweredthe will of the peoplein nomicroyalists
of thatgoldeneraof
to theissues.And iftheelec- Republicanism?
respect
Or was it merelya
tionhappenedto dependon theper- voteto keepoutoftheWhiteHouse
then a man whose religionand whose
sonalmeritsof thecandidates,
was even morediffi-backgroundwere not approvedby
interpretation
cult.
manyvoters?
Brycebelievedit to be one of the
A placardwhichappearedin one
chiefproblems
of all freenationsto of thescenesof Of Thee I Singcar-

riedwordsmorenearlytruethanthe portancehave been reported.


Facts
ofthismusicalcomedyprob- havebeengathered,
authors
forthepurpose
ably suspected.The sign read,"A of establishing
trends,on stillother
Vote forWintergreen
Is a Vote for issueswhichmaybe of nationalinWintergreen."
terestin the future.Brycebelieved
JamesBrycesaidthatthenextand that the will of the public should
finalstagein our democracy
would notonlybe known,but
thatitshould
be reachedifthewillofthemajority be quicklyknown.Withitspresent
ofcitizenswereto becomeascertain- organization,
the Instituteof Pubable at all times.
lic Opinionis equippedto make a
With the developmentof the completenationalpoll in a period
scienceof measuringpublic opinion, of ten days; and if the need were
it can be statedwithbutfewquali- urgent,thistimecould be reduced
thatthisstagein our de- to threedays.
fications,
mocracyis rapidlybeingreached.It
How accuratehave been the Inis now possibleto ascertain,
witha stitute'sfindingsas measuredby
highdegreeof accuracy,the views electionreturns:
how oftenhavethe
of the peopleon all nationalissues. Institute'spolls on issues foretold
As evidence,let me cite the work comingevents?A briefaccountof
of theAmericanInstitute
of Public themajorissuescoveredduringthese
Opinion.
twoyearswillhelpanswerthisquesor- tion.
The Institute
is a fact-finding
in the
ganizationwhich functions
One of thefirstnationalissueson
realmof opinionin muchthesame whichtheInstitute
had to
reported
way as the AssociatedPress, the do with old-agepensionsand the
UnitedPress,and the InternationalTownsendmovement.
Our findings
in therealm showed that whereasthe country
News Servicefunction
of events.Like thesepressservices, was overwhelmingly
in favorofoldtheworkof theInstitute
is entirely age pensions,a politically
insignifiunderwritten
by a groupof leading cant numberwere in favorof the
newspapers-newspapers
whichrep- Townsendprogram.Our reporton
resenteveryshadeof politicalbelief. thisissuemadein January
1936 met
DuringthelasttwoyearstheIn- witha largemeasureof skepticism,
stituteof Public Opinionhas con- but subsequentevents,particularly
ducted a continuousday-by-day,thefallelectionreturns,
provedthe
censusof the public accuracyof thisforecast.
week-by-week
mind. The view of hundredsof
Earlyin JanuaryI936, the Instithousandsof votersof the country tuteshowedthattheAAA was opon more than 300 different
issues posed by 59 votersin everyioo.
have beencanvassedin thisperiod. Even the ruralareasof the Middle
Findingson issues of currentim- Westwerealmostevenlydividedon

themeritsof thisNew Deal act de- Liberals. In the fall electionthe


spitewhatseemedto be contrary
evi- Roosevelt
votein theSouthincreased
dencesuppliedby thecorn-hog
ref- in 479 counties,but declinedin
erendumamongfarmers.
Since the nearlytwiceas many-8ii.
country
did nothavean opportunity During the closingdays of the
to vote on this issue, it is impossible Presidential
campaignthe Republito know the accuracyof the Insti- cans madea strongbid forvoteson
tute'sresults.Analysisof the No- the "pay-rolltax," the administravemberelectionreturnsprovides, tion's social securitymeasure.Lithowever,one interesting
bit of evi- tledidtheyrecognize
thatmorethan
dence indicating
the lack of enthu- twoout of everythreevotersin the
siasmforthismeasure:the Roose- countryfavoredthis far-reaching
veltvotewas smallerin I936 as com- New Deal act. In the verycities
pared with I932 in approximatelywherethe Republicansweretrying
of all ruralcountiesof hardest
three-fourths
to usethisissueto winvotes,
the country.
Whereasthe Republi- the social securityact was overcanscarriedonlyI2I countiesin the whelmingly
approved,in some inMiddle West in I932, theycarried stancesby as manyas 85 votersin
nearlytwicethatnumber(235) in every ioo. Is thereany wonder that
I936.
Rooseveltgainedvotesdailyduring
The likelihoodof a splitwithin thisattackon a measurewhicheven
the ranksof the Democraticparty therankand fileof theRepublicans
lines was approved?
along conservative-liberal
in thevoteon many
indicated
clearly
At a timewhenFatherCoughlin
issues (includingrelief,spending,
and Dr. Townsendweretalkingin
government
regulationof agricultermsof a thirdpartybacked by
tureand industry,
and otherNew
voters,the Instituteof
Deal policies)reported
bytheInsti- 25,000,000
Public Opinion estimated,on the
tute.It was moredirectly
foretold
by
a poll reported
a yearago in which bases of its polls, a followingof
votershad a chanceto classify
them- Ioo,ooo. Two days beforethe elecselvesas Conservatives
or Liberals. tion the Institutepredictedthat
The significant
factrevealedby the Lemkewouldpoll only2.2 percent
received
poll was thatnearly40 per centof ofthetotalvote.He actually
cent.
I.9
per
all voterswho casttheirballotsfor
theelection
forecast
The Institute
Rooseveltregardedthemselvesas
conservatives.
The South, whose of PresidentRoosevelt,givinghim
electoralvotemajority.
Senators and Representatives
de. a substantial
sertedtheNew Deal on manyissues The finalpoll gave Rooseveltforty
in thelast sessionof Congress,
split stateswith 485 electoralvotes; it
betweenConservatives
fifty-fifty
and failed to give him six additional

IO

states, which he carried, with 46


electoralvotes.
In addition to these forecaststhe
Institutehas made forecastsin nine
other state elections, all of which
have been correct.
This evidence of accuracy is not
presentedhere in a spiritof boastfulness,but merelyto indicate how
far the science of measuringpublic
opinion has developed. I have said
on many occasionsthat I do not believe that any great social good
comes frombeing able to predictan
hoursin advance.
electionforty-eight
But I do see the value of elections
in determiningthe accuracyof methods used in measuringpublic opinion; for if the methods are not acan election,they
curatein forecasting
will probablyprove equally inaccurate in measuringpublic opinion on
national issues.
The two great issues of this year
have been labor disordersand the
President's proposal to enlarge the
Supreme Court. What have the Institute'spolls showed on these two
national questions?
The drive to organize labor in
many industries,and the use of the
new weapon-the sit-downstrikeprovide an interestingexample of
how public opinion changes. At the
beginning of the year a great majorityof people throughoutthecounto labor unions.
trywere sympathetic
Six months later labor had gained
many victories,but at the expenseof
much public sympathy,particularly
in the middle classes.

Continuouslyduring this period


the Instituteof Public Opinion covered the public's attitudeon various
phases of the labor question-the

split betweenthe C.I.O. and A.F.

of L., the General Motorsstrike,the


public's attitudetoward laws regulating and curbingunions.
More than anythingelse the use
of the sit-downstrikealienated the
sympathiesof the middle classes.
When the General Motorsstrikebegan, for example,only a slightmajorityof persons(53 per cent) sympathized with the employers.As the
strikeprogressedand as the public
had time to forman opinion of sitdown strikes,the percentage who
took the side of the employersincreased steadily.At the end of the
strike62 per cent of all people took
the side of the companywhereas 38
per centtook the side of the strikers.
Two-thirds of the voters of the
country bIieved that sit-down
strikesshould be made illegal, and
the same proportionbelieve that authoritiesshould use forcein removing sit-down strikers.At the close
of the period of intensiveorganization of labor and of strikes,the Institutefound the public overwhelmingly of the opinion that labor
unions should be regulated by the
government,should be required to
incorporate.
Significantly,one of the groups
found most hostileto labor was the
group composed of farmers-with
whom labor hopeseventuallyto form
a political party.

II

The SupremeCourt issue is a limitingof the Supreme Court's


of the confusion power,to any tamperingwith its
illustration
perfect
to readtoo rightto say'thoushaltnot'to Conwhichfollowsan attempt
It is at gressand to the President."
muchinto electionreturns.
had
Up to thispointthePresident
exampleof
thesametimea perfect
in a democracy not takena definitestandon the
whyit is essential,
5 thePressuchas ours,to be able to knowthe Courtissue.On February
will of the peopleon any givenis- identthrewthe full weightof his
behinda proposal
greatpopularity
sue,at anygiventime.
A while ago JamesFarleysaid: to liberalizetheCourtbyenlarging
Withhis
to fifteen.
are for its membership
"The peopleof thiscountry
of a plan to
the Rooseveltprogramwhateverit personalsponsorship
is. They are fortheCourtprogram liberalizethe Court,what position
becausethe Presidentproposedit." would votersof the nationtakethosewhovotedforhim
himself
The President
morerecently particularly
has said that the majorityof the in the fallelection?
people favor his Court proposal. The Presidentmade his proposal
What are the viewsof the people? on Fridaymorning.Withina few
was
machinery
1935, the hoursthe Institute's
As earlyas November
Institutelearnedin one of its na- setin motionto takea nationalpoll
tional polls that 63 in everyIOO on thisissue.Resultsofthefirstpoll
voterswithviewson thisissuewere showed53 votersin everyIoo opopposedto curbingthepowerof the posed to the President'splan. In
pollsthisfigurechanged
SupremeCourt.The samepoll was subsequent
repeatedin December1936.A ma- to 52, and in April,just beforethe
against WagnerAct decision,to 5!. When
joritywas again registered
to laborand
thepowerofthe thisdecision,favorable
curbingor limiting
CourttodeclareactsofCongressun- to theNew Deal, was handeddown,
In our reportof De- the trendchangedand the percentconstitutional.
cember13, we said: "In the next age of personsopposedto thePresisessionof Congressthereis almost dent's plan increasedto 53. With
certainto be agitationfora consti- JusticeVan Devanter'sresignation
ofvotersopposedhad
tutionalamendmentto curtailthe thepercentage
in everyioo, or to
increased
to
AlCourt.
58
of
Supreme
the
power
almost
the
same as it was
a
point
of
a
number
it
that
is
reported
ready
Senatorsare organizinga bloc to in Decemberbeforethe President
his own plan forlibIf such a had sponsored
fightforan amendment.
the
Court.
eralizing
chances
its
.
.
.
measureis passed
stillbeThe President
apparently
of being ratifiedby the votersof
of
voters
the
that
lieves
majority
the nationwould be slim. A maIn
fact
to
his
favorable
are
program.
jorityof votersare opposedto any

l2

is revealedone of
he has intimated
thathe willrenew Here certainly
his fightto enlargethe Court.Do the greatestweaknessesof our deofthebasic
Here isevidence
thevotersof the country
wanthim mocracy.
that
to renewthisfight?The Institute
.s truthof Lord Bryce'sassertion
of
presentlyengaged in polling the thenextstatein thedevelopment
countryon thisquestion.The first the Americanformof government
returns
look as if the country
by a wouldbe reachedif thewill of the
is readyto "call peoplewereto becomeascertainable
thumping
majority
the wholethingoff."The Institute at all times.
of publicopinan interesting
The measurement
has discovered
factin
the course of its SupremeCourt ion need not be confinedto quespolls; it has discovered
thatovera tionsof government
and politics.It
thirdof the peoplewho votedfor is equallyusefulin the fieldof solastfallare againsthis cial problems.I believethatwhen
thePresident
which
plan. And yetvirtually
all of these fulluse is madeofprocedures
for have beendevelopedit will be possamepersonsareenthusiastically
Roosevelttoday.
sibleto speedup thewholeprogram
Standardpoliticalprocedure
calls of social welfare.Let me cite one
formakingtheSupremeCourtone example.
oftheissuesin theforthcoming
ConFor manyyearsthe word"syphgressional
campaign.In fact,former ilis" was bannedfrommanypubliPresident
Hooverhas madethissug- cations,becausetheeditorsthought
gestion,and the Presidenthimself, thatdecentpeopledid notwantto
judgingfromhis last talk,appears talkaboutit.Monthsago we learned,
readyto carrytheissueintothecam- in thecourseof takingpollson this
paign.
issue,thatthe publicnot onlywas
What will happen?If President readyto discussfreelythe problem
Rooseveltretainshis presentgreat ofvenerealdiseasesbutthatthepubpopularity,the Democrats will lic in its thinkinghad traveledfar
emergeagainfromtheelections
with beyondlegislators
in the matterof
a substantial
majority,
if somewhat publiccontrolof thesediseases.
smallerthan 1936.
Let me cite anotherexamplein
If the Court proposalhas been a different
field.We knowthatcermadean issuein thecampaign,the tain prejudicesexistamongProtesDemocrats,
and in factmostpeople, tantsand Catholicsand Jews.How
willregarditas a mandatetoenlarge can we deal effectively
with these
theCourt,despitethefactthatpeo- prejudicesunlesswe know a great
ple mayholdthesameviewsat that deal more about them? Why do
timeas theydo today.The President theyexist? Where do theyexist?
will surelyregardit as a mandate What is the trend-are relations
to enlargethe Court.
among thesegroupsimprovingor

13

are theygrowingworse?I'he same the SupremeCourt and the local


which has been devel- police court.And we have found
machinery
opedto learntheviewsofthepublic stillotherswho believethatsterilon politicaland socialissuescan be izingtheunfitmeanswashingthem
usedwithequal successin thisfield, withtherightkindof soap!
in myopinion.
for a
But this is unimportant,
In thecourseof pollingthecoun- democracydependsfor good govtryon morethanthreehundredis- ernment
judgment
on thecollective
sues,it has been possibleto arrive of the majority.
I would not argue
basedon factsregard- thattheviewsof the commonpeoat conclusions
of the mass of ple alwaysprovidethe bestanswer
ing the intelligence
voters.The Institute'srepresenta-to anynationalquestion.Buton the
tivesare dailytalkingto all classes basisof the evidencewhichtheInin everystateoftheunion stitutehas amassedduringthe last
of society
-to personson relief,share-crop-two yearsI have come to believe
which
farmers,
merchants,absolutelyin the statement
pers,bricklayers,
Whatevidence Theodore Roosevelt once made:
housewives,
teachers.
is therethatthesepeoplearecapable "The majorityof plain people of
of self-government?
the UnitedStateswill,day in and
Sir RobertPeel describedpublic day out, make fewermistakesin
opinionas "a greatcompoundof governing themselvesthan any
folly,weakness,prejudice,wrong smallerclass or groupof men will
and makein trying
obstinacy,
to governthem."
rightfeeling,
feeling,
could
We
The scienceof measuringpublic
newspaperparagraphs."
a
definiMany
such
quarrela monthover
opinionis onlyin itsinfancy.
I
see
procepoint,as
tion.The important
thingshavestillto be learned;
public dures must be developed.We are
it, is not what constitutes
stage.But
publicopinion, stillin the experimental
opinion,butwhether
and by thisI mean majorityopin- of one thingwe can be absolutely
that is certain,and thatis, withmanyof
ion, adds up to something
and social
sound.
our leadingpsychologists
in the problem
Democracydependson thecollec- scientists
interested
with growingexof the people; it of measurement,
tive intelligence
does notrequirethateveryvoterbe perienceof such organizationsas
With a corpsof inter- our own,it will notbe longbefore
intelligent.
viewersdailyaskingquestionsof all we can say withutmostconfidence
is in a goodposi- thatthe finalstagein the developkinds,theInstitute
as described
how mentofourdemocracy,
tionto knowhow ill-informed,
hasbeenreached-thatthe
prejudiced,how stupid are some byBryce,
of citizenscan
voters.We havefoundpersonswho will of themajority
at all times.
do notknowthedifference
between be ascertained

14

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