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CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Iowa
Sample
Conducted
Margin of Error

1555 Registered Voters
November 15-19, 2015

±4.6%

1. Would you say things in this country today are...
Generally headed in the right direction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%
Off on the wrong track . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%

2. How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 Presidential caucus in Iowa?
Definitely will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .59%
Probably will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13%
Maybe will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
Probably will not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%
Definitely will not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Don’t know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%

3. In 2016, are you more likely to vote in the Democratic or Republican Presidential caucus?
Democratic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33%
Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34%
Neither . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%
Don’t know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%

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CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa
4. Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Iowa Republican Presidential caucus
in 2016?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Jeb Bush . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
Ben Carson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%
Chris Christie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Ted Cruz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%
Carly Fiorina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
Jim Gilmore . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Lindsey Graham . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Mike Huckabee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Bobby Jindal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
John Kasich . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
George Pataki . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Rand Paul . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Marco Rubio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11%
Rick Santorum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Donald Trump . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30%
No preference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0%

5.

Asked of Democratic primary voters

Held for future release
6. How would you describe your feelings right now about [First Choice Candidate Name] ... ?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Enthusiastic about [Candidate Name] . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61%
Supporting [Candidate Name] but with some reservations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35%
Considering [Candidate Name] mainly because you dislike the other choices so
far . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%

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CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa
7. Which of these is your favorite thing about Donald Trump right now?
Asked of Trump supporters

His outlook for America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30%
He says things others are afraid to say . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40%
His personal success story . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
He’s not a typical politician . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28%
His faith and religious beliefs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%

8. Which of these is your favorite thing about Ben Carson right now?
Asked of Carson supporters

His outlook for America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20%
He says things others are afraid to say . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18%
His personal success story . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
He’s not a typical politician . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29%
His faith and religious beliefs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31%

9. Regardless of whether you’d personally vote for them, which of these candidates do you
feel is ready to be Commander in Chief, if elected?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ben Carson
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Jeb Bush

Ready
43%
49%
67%
51%
38%

Not ready
38%
39%
15%
28%
46%

Not sure
19%
12%
18%
21%
16%

10.

Asked of Democratic primary voters

Held for future release

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CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa
11. If [First Choice Candidate Name] wins the Presidency, how confident are you he/she could
actually do the things they’re talking about?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Very confident he/she could do them . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54%
Somewhat confident, and would give him/her a chance to try . . . . . . . . . . . . 43%
Not confident yet, but electing him/her would at least send a message about the
direction we need . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%

12. How much have the terrorism attacks in Paris affected your decision about whom to
support for President in 2016?
Asked of Republican primary voters

A lot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%
Somewhat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22%
Not much . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20%
Not at all . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36%

13. Do you favor or oppose sending US ground troops to the Middle East to fight ISIS?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Favor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74%
Oppose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26%

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CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa
14. Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements about Illegal immigrants?
Illegal immigrants...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Fill jobs Americans
won’t do
Drive down
Americans’ wages
Are generally
hard-working people
Have broken the law
and should be
penalized or
deported
Harm national
security

Agree

Disagree

45%

55%

81%

19%

63%

37%

89%

11%

88%

12%

15.

Asked of Democratic primary voters

Held for future release
16.

Asked of Democratic primary voters

Held for future release
17. On which of these topics MUST a candidate agree with you to earn your vote, and on
which is it okay if there are some differences between you?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Immigration
Matters of faith and
religion
Handling ISIS
Same sex marriage

Must agree with you
61%

Okay with some
differences
39%

39%
71%
54%

61%
29%
46%

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CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa
18.

Asked of Democratic primary voters

Held for future release
19.

Asked of Democratic primary voters

Held for future release
20. Which of these candidates would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, if you could?
Asked of Democratic and Republican primary voters

Donald Trump
Ben Carson
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Jeb Bush
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders

Invite
36%
52%
40%
44%
34%
44%
44%

Not Invite
64%
48%
60%
56%
66%
56%
56%

21. How do you feel about the Tea Party movement?⇤
Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21%
Oppose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34%
Neutral . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45%

22. Would you describe yourself as a born-again or evangelical Christian?*
Yes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39%
No . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%

Questions marked with an asterisk are only asked for respondents who had not answered in previous waves.
Earlier responses were used where available.

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CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa
23. Thinking about politics these days, how would you describe your own political viewpoint?*
Very liberal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
Liberal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%
Moderate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33%
Conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24%
Very Conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%

24. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a ...?
Strong Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22%
Not very strong Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
Lean Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Independent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%
Lean Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10%
Not very strong Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11%
Strong Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%

25. Are you male or female?
Male . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48%
Female . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52%

26. In what year were you born? [Age recoded from birth year]
18-29 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18%
30-44 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%
45-64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41%
65+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24%

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CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa
27. What racial or ethnic group best describes you?
White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96%
Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%

28. What is the highest level of education you have completed?
HS or less . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42%
Some college . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36%
College grad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15%
Post grad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%

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CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa
1. Direction of country
Would you say things in this country today are...
Gender
Generally headed in the right direction
Off on the wrong track
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

21%
71%
8%

23%
72%
5%

20%
69%
10%

11%
83%
6%

21%
74%
4%

22%
70%
8%

28%
60%
12%

21%
71%
7%







100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,554)

(741)

(813)

(274)

(270)

(643)

(367)

(1,486)

(10)

(13)

(44)

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CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

2. Likelihood of Voting
How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 Presidential caucus in Iowa?
Gender
Definitely will vote
Probably will vote
Maybe will vote
Probably will not vote
Definitely will not vote
Don’t know
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

59%
13%
9%
8%
10%
1%

64%
12%
5%
8%
9%
1%

54%
15%
12%
8%
10%
1%

55%
21%
10%
8%
5%
0%

52%
16%
15%
7%
9%
2%

60%
10%
8%
10%
11%
1%

67%
11%
3%
7%
10%
1%

59%
13%
9%
8%
9%
1%
















100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,555)

(741)

(814)

(274)

(270)

(644)

(367)

(1,487)

(10)

(13)

(44)

2

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

3. 2016 Primary Turnout
In 2016, are you more likely to vote in the Democratic or Republican Presidential caucus?
Gender
Democratic
Republican
Neither
Don’t know
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

33%
34%
17%
16%

30%
40%
18%
12%

36%
29%
17%
19%

29%
30%
12%
30%

28%
33%
18%
21%

34%
36%
20%
10%

37%
35%
16%
12%

32%
34%
18%
16%










100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,555)

(741)

(814)

(274)

(270)

(644)

(367)

(1,487)

(10)

(13)

(44)

3

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

4. First Choice Republican Candidate
Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Iowa Republican Presidential caucus in 2016?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

5%
19%
2%
21%
4%
0%
0%
1%
2%
1%
0%
2%
11%
2%
30%
0%

6%
19%
1%
24%
3%
0%
0%
1%
0%
1%
0%
1%
12%
0%
32%
0%

5%
19%
4%
18%
5%
0%
0%
2%
4%
1%
0%
2%
9%
3%
28%
1%

3%
4%
0%
23%
4%
0%
0%
0%
0%
2%
0%
3%
0%
0%
62%
1%

4%
26%
1%
21%
1%
0%
0%
0%
7%
0%
0%
3%
7%
5%
25%
0%

7%
20%
2%
23%
6%
0%
0%
1%
1%
1%
0%
1%
14%
1%
23%
0%

5%
19%
4%
18%
3%
0%
0%
3%
1%
1%
0%
2%
13%
1%
31%
1%

5%
18%
2%
21%
4%
0%
0%
1%
2%
1%
0%
2%
11%
2%
30%
0%














































100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(657)

(371)

(286)

(80)

(114)

(297)

(166)

(630)

(0)

(6)

(21)

5.

Asked of Democratic primary voters
Held for future release.

4

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

6. Enthusiasm for First Choice
How would you describe your feelings right now about [First Choice Candidate Name] ... ?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Enthusiastic
Supporting with reservations
Considering as best alternative
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

61%
35%
4%

65%
34%
2%

55%
38%
7%

78%
18%
4%

60%
35%
5%

58%
39%
3%

57%
38%
5%

61%
35%
4%







100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(653)

(370)

(283)

(79)

(114)

(295)

(165)

(626)

(0)

(6)

(21)

5

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

7. Favorite Trump Characteristic
Which of these is your favorite thing about Donald Trump right now?
Asked of Trump supporters

Gender
His outlook for America
He says things others are afraid to say
His personal success story
He’s not a typical politician
His faith and religious beliefs
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

30%
40%
1%
28%
0%

32%
37%
0%
31%
0%

28%
44%
2%
25%
1%









31%
45%
0%
24%
0%

33%
50%
0%
17%
0%

30%
40%
1%
29%
0%













100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(118)

(80)

100%

(197)

(69)

(51)

(189)

(49)

(29)

(0)

(1)

(8)

6

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

8. Favorite Carson Characteristic
Which of these is your favorite thing about Ben Carson right now?
Asked of Carson supporters

Gender
His outlook for America
He says things others are afraid to say
His personal success story
He’s not a typical politician
His faith and religious beliefs
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

20%
18%
2%
29%
31%

24%
18%
1%
27%
30%

14%
18%
2%
33%
32%









18%
23%
2%
24%
33%





18%
19%
2%
29%
32%













100%

100%

100%
(53)

100%

(69)

100%

(122)

(3)

(30)

(58)

(31)

(116)

(0)

(0)

(6)

7

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

9. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief – Ben Carson
Regardless of whether you’d personally vote for them, which of these candidates do you feel is ready to be Commander in Chief, if elected?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

43%
38%
19%

45%
41%
14%

41%
35%
25%

42%
43%
14%

58%
30%
12%

42%
37%
22%

36%
44%
21%

43%
38%
18%







100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(619)

(350)

(269)

(76)

(110)

(284)

(149)

(594)

(0)

(6)

(20)

8

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

10. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief – Donald Trump
Regardless of whether you’d personally vote for them, which of these candidates do you feel is ready to be Commander in Chief, if elected?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

49%
39%
12%

57%
28%
15%

38%
52%
10%

65%
22%
12%

42%
50%
8%

48%
40%
13%

48%
37%
16%

49%
38%
13%







100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(647)

(364)

(283)

(80)

(114)

(293)

(160)

(620)

(0)

(6)

(21)

9

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

11. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief – Ted Cruz
Regardless of whether you’d personally vote for them, which of these candidates do you feel is ready to be Commander in Chief, if elected?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

67%
15%
18%

78%
10%
12%

53%
23%
24%

70%
14%
16%

67%
24%
9%

66%
13%
21%

68%
13%
19%

68%
15%
17%







100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(627)

(356)

(271)

(76)

(114)

(287)

(150)

(601)

(0)

(6)

(20)

10

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

12. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief – Marco Rubio
Regardless of whether you’d personally vote for them, which of these candidates do you feel is ready to be Commander in Chief, if elected?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

51%
28%
21%

52%
31%
18%

50%
25%
25%

28%
53%
19%

46%
26%
28%

57%
23%
20%

54%
27%
19%

51%
28%
21%







100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(631)

(356)

(274)

(76)

(113)

(289)

(152)

(605)

(0)

(6)

(20)

11

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

13. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief – Jeb Bush
Regardless of whether you’d personally vote for them, which of these candidates do you feel is ready to be Commander in Chief, if elected?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

38%
46%
16%

35%
50%
15%

42%
40%
18%

19%
77%
4%

38%
47%
15%

43%
38%
19%

39%
44%
18%

37%
46%
16%







100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(634)

(358)

(276)

(76)

(113)

(292)

(153)

(609)

(0)

(6)

(20)

14.

Asked of Democratic primary voters
Held for future release.

15.

Asked of Democratic primary voters
Held for future release.

16.

Asked of Democratic primary voters
Held for future release.

12

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

17. Confidence in Candidate Choice
If [First Choice Candidate Name] wins the Presidency, how confident are you he/she could actually do the things they’re talking about?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not confident yet
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

54%
43%
3%

60%
38%
2%

46%
50%
4%

79%
19%
1%

49%
47%
4%

51%
47%
2%

50%
46%
4%

55%
42%
2%







100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(654)

(371)

(284)

(79)

(114)

(295)

(166)

(627)

(0)

(6)

(21)

13

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

18. Paris Attacks Effect on Vote
How much have the terrorism attacks in Paris affected your decision about whom to support for President in 2016?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
A lot
Somewhat
Not much
Not at all
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

21%
22%
20%
36%

18%
21%
21%
40%

26%
23%
19%
32%

26%
18%
3%
52%

23%
19%
18%
41%

17%
23%
24%
36%

27%
25%
23%
26%

22%
22%
20%
36%










100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(658)

(371)

(287)

(80)

(114)

(298)

(166)

(631)

(0)

(6)

(21)

14

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

19. Troops to Fight ISIS
Do you favor or oppose sending US ground troops to the Middle East to fight ISIS?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Favor
Oppose
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

74%
26%

76%
24%

72%
28%

49%
51%

85%
15%

79%
21%

67%
33%

74%
26%




100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(639)

(362)

(278)

(71)

(114)

(295)

(159)

(614)

(0)

(6)

(19)

15

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

20. Agree with each of the following statements about Illegal immigrants Illegal immigrants...
Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements about Illegal immigrants? Illegal immigrants...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Fill jobs Americans won’t do
Drive down Americans’ wages
Are generally hard-working people
Should be penalized/deported
Harm national security
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

45%
81%
63%
89%
88%

39%
84%
64%
93%
91%

52%
75%
57%
81%
80%

22%
81%
55%
91%
88%

36%
87%
63%
88%
94%

50%
78%
62%
88%
87%

50%
78%
61%
86%
80%

44%
81%
61%
88%
87%













(658)

(371)

(287)

(80)

(114)

(298)

(166)

(631)

(0)

(6)

(21)

16

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

21. Disagree with each of the following statements about Illegal immigrants Illegal immigrants...
Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements about Illegal immigrants? Illegal immigrants...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Fill jobs Americans won’t do
Drive down Americans’ wages
Are generally hard-working people
Should be penalized/deported
Harm national security
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

55%
19%
37%
11%
12%

60%
16%
34%
7%
8%

46%
23%
39%
17%
17%

78%
19%
45%
9%
12%

64%
13%
37%
12%
6%

48%
21%
34%
10%
12%

48%
18%
36%
14%
17%

54%
18%
37%
11%
12%













(658)

(371)

(287)

(80)

(114)

(298)

(166)

(631)

(0)

(6)

(21)

22.

Asked of Democratic primary voters
Held for future release.

23.

Asked of Democratic primary voters
Held for future release.

17

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

24. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement – Immigration
On which of these topics MUST a candidate agree with you to earn your vote, and on which is it okay if there are some differences between you?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Must agree with you
Okay with some differences
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

61%
39%

66%
34%

53%
47%

54%
46%

53%
47%

62%
38%

66%
34%

60%
40%




100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(646)

(371)

(276)

(79)

(114)

(295)

(158)

(619)

(0)

(6)

(21)

18

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

25. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement – Matters of faith and religion
On which of these topics MUST a candidate agree with you to earn your vote, and on which is it okay if there are some differences between you?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Must agree with you
Okay with some differences
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

39%
61%

38%
62%

40%
60%

57%
43%

42%
58%

32%
68%

41%
59%

40%
60%




100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(647)

(368)

(279)

(79)

(114)

(295)

(159)

(621)

(0)

(6)

(20)

19

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

26. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement – Handling ISIS
On which of these topics MUST a candidate agree with you to earn your vote, and on which is it okay if there are some differences between you?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Must agree with you
Okay with some differences
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

71%
29%

73%
27%

69%
31%

41%
59%

67%
33%

76%
24%

80%
20%

71%
29%




100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(650)

(370)

(281)

(79)

(114)

(296)

(161)

(623)

(0)

(6)

(21)

20

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

27. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement – Same sex marriage
On which of these topics MUST a candidate agree with you to earn your vote, and on which is it okay if there are some differences between you?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Must agree with you
Okay with some differences
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

54%
46%

55%
45%

52%
48%

59%
41%

52%
48%

49%
51%

62%
38%

54%
46%




100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(646)

(369)

(277)

(79)

(114)

(295)

(157)

(619)

(0)

(6)

(20)

21

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

28.

Asked of Democratic primary voters
Held for future release.

29.

Asked of Democratic primary voters
Held for future release.

30.

Asked of Democratic primary voters
Held for future release.

31.

Asked of Democratic primary voters
Held for future release.

32.

Asked of Democratic primary voters
Held for future release.

33.

Asked of Democratic primary voters
Held for future release.

34.

Asked of Democratic primary voters
Held for future release.

35.

Asked of Democratic primary voters
Held for future release.

22

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

36. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner – Donald Trump
Which of these candidates would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, if you could?
Asked of Democratic and Republican primary voters

Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

36%
64%

44%
56%

27%
73%

39%
61%

34%
66%

36%
64%

35%
65%

36%
64%




100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,229)

(599)

(630)

(171)

(207)

(540)

(311)

(1,171)

(6)

(7)

(45)

23

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

37. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner – Ben Carson
Which of these candidates would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, if you could?
Asked of Democratic and Republican primary voters

Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

52%
48%

59%
41%

45%
55%

41%
59%

58%
42%

53%
47%

51%
49%

51%
49%




100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,215)

(589)

(626)

(167)

(207)

(527)

(313)

(1,158)

(6)

(6)

(44)

24

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

38. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner – Ted Cruz
Which of these candidates would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, if you could?
Asked of Democratic and Republican primary voters

Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

40%
60%

52%
48%

30%
70%

34%
66%

45%
55%

41%
59%

40%
60%

39%
61%




100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,216)

(589)

(627)

(167)

(208)

(527)

(315)

(1,160)

(6)

(6)

(44)

25

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

39. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner – Marco Rubio
Which of these candidates would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, if you could?
Asked of Democratic and Republican primary voters

Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

44%
56%

50%
50%

39%
61%

31%
69%

48%
52%

47%
53%

43%
57%

43%
57%




100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,206)

(582)

(624)

(160)

(207)

(527)

(312)

(1,150)

(6)

(6)

(44)

26

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

40. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner – Jeb Bush
Which of these candidates would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, if you could?
Asked of Democratic and Republican primary voters

Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

34%
66%

33%
67%

35%
65%

15%
85%

34%
66%

40%
60%

34%
66%

33%
67%




100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,208)

(588)

(620)

(167)

(206)

(531)

(304)

(1,152)

(6)

(6)

(44)

27

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

41. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner – Hillary Clinton
Which of these candidates would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, if you could?
Asked of Democratic and Republican primary voters

Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

44%
56%

34%
66%

53%
47%

50%
50%

38%
62%

42%
58%

47%
53%

44%
56%




100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,200)

(586)

(614)

(167)

(205)

(520)

(307)

(1,143)

(6)

(7)

(44)

28

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

42. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner – Bernie Sanders
Which of these candidates would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, if you could?
Asked of Democratic and Republican primary voters

Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

44%
56%

40%
60%

48%
52%

44%
56%

39%
61%

46%
54%

43%
57%

45%
55%




100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,203)

(591)

(613)

(167)

(207)

(520)

(309)

(1,146)

(6)

(6)

(44)

29

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters
Sample
Conducted
Margin of Error

658 Likely Republican Caucus Voters
November 15-19, 2015

±6.2%

1. First Choice Republican Candidate
Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Iowa Republican Presidential caucus in 2016?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

5%
19%
2%
21%
4%
0%
0%
1%
2%
1%
0%
2%
11%
2%
30%
0%

2%
12%
0%
41%
5%
0%
0%
0%
4%
0%
0%
2%
7%
3%
23%
0%

8%
25%
4%
11%
4%
0%
0%
2%
1%
1%
0%
1%
14%
1%
29%
0%

3%
14%
1%
3%
4%
0%
0%
2%
0%
2%
0%
2%
13%
1%
53%
0%

3%
18%
2%
30%
3%
0%
0%
0%
3%
0%
0%
2%
5%
2%
32%
0%

8%
19%
3%
12%
5%
0%
0%
2%
1%
1%
0%
2%
17%
1%
28%
1%

6%
23%
3%
23%
4%
0%
0%
2%
4%
1%
0%
2%
6%
2%
25%
0%

5%
11%
2%
18%
6%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
1%
20%
0%
37%
0%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(657)

(232)

(340)

(52)

(331)

(310)

(368)

(236)

Gender
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

5%
19%
2%
21%
4%
0%

6%
19%
1%
24%
3%
0%

5%
19%
4%
18%
5%
0%

3%
4%
0%
23%
4%
0%

4%
26%
1%
21%
1%
0%

7%
20%
2%
23%
6%
0%

5%
19%
4%
18%
3%
0%

6%
19%
3%
21%
5%
0%

3%
14%
0%
21%
2%
0%

continued on the next page . . .

1

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

continued from previous page
Age group

Gender
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

0%
1%
2%
1%
0%
2%
11%
2%
30%
0%

0%
1%
0%
1%
0%
1%
12%
0%
32%
0%

0%
2%
4%
1%
0%
2%
9%
3%
28%
1%

0%
0%
0%
2%
0%
3%
0%
0%
62%
1%

0%
0%
7%
0%
0%
3%
7%
5%
25%
0%

0%
1%
1%
1%
0%
1%
14%
1%
23%
0%

0%
3%
1%
1%
0%
2%
13%
1%
31%
1%

0%
1%
1%
1%
0%
2%
12%
2%
27%
0%

0%
1%
6%
1%
0%
2%
6%
0%
43%
0%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(657)

(371)

(286)

(80)

(114)

(297)

(166)

(520)

(122)

2

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

2. Enthusiasm for First Choice
How would you describe your feelings right now about [First Choice Candidate Name] ... ?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Enthusiastic
Supporting with reservations
Considering as best alternative
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

61%
35%
4%

74%
22%
4%

54%
44%
2%

58%
38%
4%

69%
29%
2%

53%
41%
5%

62%
35%
3%

58%
38%
4%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(653)

(230)

(338)

(52)

(329)

(308)

(367)

(234)

Gender
Enthusiastic
Supporting with reservations
Considering as best alternative

Tea Party

Total

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

61%
35%
4%

65%
34%
2%

55%
38%
7%

78%
18%
4%

60%
35%
5%

58%
39%
3%

57%
38%
5%

61%
36%
4%

59%
37%
4%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(653)

(370)

(283)

(79)

(114)

(295)

(165)

(517)

(121)

3

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

3. Favorite Trump Characteristic
Which of these is your favorite thing about Donald Trump right now?
Asked of Trump supporters

Ideology
His outlook for America
He says things others are afraid to say
His personal success story
He’s not a typical politician
His faith and religious beliefs
Totals
(Weighted N)

Tea Party

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

30%
40%
1%
28%
0%

23%
41%
0%
36%
0%

27%
41%
0%
32%
0%





26%
38%
2%
34%
0%

35%
43%
0%
21%
0%

35%
40%
2%
23%
0%

26%
34%
0%
40%
0%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(52)

(99)

100%

(197)

(107)

(86)

(92)

(86)

(28)

Gender
His outlook for America
He says things others are afraid to say
His personal success story
He’s not a typical politician
His faith and religious beliefs
Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

30%
40%
1%
28%
0%

32%
37%
0%
31%
0%

28%
44%
2%
25%
1%









31%
45%
0%
24%
0%

33%
50%
0%
17%
0%

24%
40%
1%
35%
1%

47%
41%
0%
12%
0%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(118)

(80)

100%

(197)

(69)

(51)

(140)

(52)

(49)

(29)

4

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

4. Favorite Carson Characteristic
Which of these is your favorite thing about Ben Carson right now?
Asked of Carson supporters

Ideology
His outlook for America
He says things others are afraid to say
His personal success story
He’s not a typical politician
His faith and religious beliefs
Totals
(Weighted N)

Tea Party

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

20%
18%
2%
29%
31%





22%
16%
1%
32%
29%





26%
20%
1%
20%
33%

15%
17%
2%
37%
29%

19%
20%
1%
20%
39%





100%

100%

100%

100%

(61)

(58)

(83)

100%
(122)

(27)

(85)

(8)

Gender
His outlook for America
He says things others are afraid to say
His personal success story
He’s not a typical politician
His faith and religious beliefs
Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Age group

(27)

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

20%
18%
2%
29%
31%

24%
18%
1%
27%
30%

14%
18%
2%
33%
32%









18%
23%
2%
24%
33%





20%
21%
2%
23%
34%





100%

100%

100%
(53)

100%

(69)

100%

(122)

(3)

(30)

(58)

(31)

(99)

(17)

5

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

5. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief – Ben Carson
Regardless of whether you’d personally vote for them, which of these candidates do you feel is ready to be Commander in Chief, if elected?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

43%
38%
19%

43%
43%
14%

44%
36%
20%



48%
37%
15%

39%
39%
23%

49%
32%
19%

33%
45%
21%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(218)

(330)

100%

(619)

(317)

(289)

(345)

(225)

Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure

Tea Party

(47)
Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

43%
38%
19%

45%
41%
14%

41%
35%
25%

42%
43%
14%

58%
30%
12%

42%
37%
22%

36%
44%
21%

43%
39%
18%

44%
34%
22%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(619)

(350)

(269)

(76)

(110)

(284)

(149)

(492)

(115)

6

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

6. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief – Donald Trump
Regardless of whether you’d personally vote for them, which of these candidates do you feel is ready to be Commander in Chief, if elected?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

49%
39%
12%

46%
39%
15%

46%
41%
13%

69%
29%
2%

58%
29%
13%

39%
49%
12%

43%
44%
13%

57%
31%
12%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(647)

(225)

(335)

(52)

(327)

(303)

(359)

(235)

Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

49%
39%
12%

57%
28%
15%

38%
52%
10%

65%
22%
12%

42%
50%
8%

48%
40%
13%

48%
37%
16%

45%
42%
13%

65%
23%
12%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(647)

(364)

(283)

(80)

(114)

(293)

(160)

(511)

(121)

7

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

7. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief – Ted Cruz
Regardless of whether you’d personally vote for them, which of these candidates do you feel is ready to be Commander in Chief, if elected?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

67%
15%
18%

83%
11%
6%

62%
15%
23%



81%
10%
9%

53%
21%
26%

66%
16%
18%

70%
15%
15%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(221)

(331)

100%

(627)

(320)

(290)

(348)

(226)

Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure

Tea Party

(47)
Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

67%
15%
18%

78%
10%
12%

53%
23%
24%

70%
14%
16%

67%
24%
9%

66%
13%
21%

68%
13%
19%

68%
14%
18%

65%
18%
17%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(627)

(356)

(271)

(76)

(114)

(287)

(150)

(498)

(116)

8

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

8. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief – Marco Rubio
Regardless of whether you’d personally vote for them, which of these candidates do you feel is ready to be Commander in Chief, if elected?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

51%
28%
21%

44%
32%
24%

57%
26%
17%



48%
34%
18%

54%
23%
23%

47%
30%
23%

57%
26%
17%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(225)

(330)

100%

(631)

(317)

(297)

(354)

(227)

Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure

Tea Party

(48)
Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

51%
28%
21%

52%
31%
18%

50%
25%
25%

28%
53%
19%

46%
26%
28%

57%
23%
20%

54%
27%
19%

56%
25%
19%

29%
43%
28%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(631)

(356)

(274)

(76)

(113)

(289)

(152)

(503)

(115)

9

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

9. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief – Jeb Bush
Regardless of whether you’d personally vote for them, which of these candidates do you feel is ready to be Commander in Chief, if elected?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

38%
46%
16%

29%
62%
9%

45%
35%
20%



28%
55%
17%

49%
35%
16%

38%
47%
14%

40%
44%
16%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(223)

(336)

100%

(634)

(317)

(301)

(356)

(226)

Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure

Tea Party

(47)
Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

38%
46%
16%

35%
50%
15%

42%
40%
18%

19%
77%
4%

38%
47%
15%

43%
38%
19%

39%
44%
18%

40%
45%
16%

31%
49%
20%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(634)

(358)

(276)

(76)

(113)

(292)

(153)

(507)

(116)

10

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

10. Confidence in Candidate Choice
If [First Choice Candidate Name] wins the Presidency, how confident are you he/she could actually do the things they’re talking about?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not confident yet
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

54%
43%
3%

63%
35%
2%

48%
50%
3%

57%
38%
5%

64%
34%
2%

44%
52%
4%

55%
43%
2%

52%
44%
4%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(654)

(231)

(338)

(52)

(330)

(308)

(367)

(234)

Gender
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not confident yet

Tea Party

Total

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

54%
43%
3%

60%
38%
2%

46%
50%
4%

79%
19%
1%

49%
47%
4%

51%
47%
2%

50%
46%
4%

54%
44%
2%

48%
46%
6%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(654)

(371)

(284)

(79)

(114)

(295)

(166)

(518)

(121)

11

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

11. Paris Attacks Effect on Vote
How much have the terrorism attacks in Paris affected your decision about whom to support for President in 2016?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
A lot
Somewhat
Not much
Not at all
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

21%
22%
20%
36%

20%
19%
17%
45%

22%
22%
23%
33%

32%
26%
23%
19%

23%
17%
20%
40%

21%
26%
20%
33%

21%
20%
20%
40%

22%
23%
22%
32%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(658)

(232)

(340)

(52)

(331)

(311)

(369)

(236)

Gender
A lot
Somewhat
Not much
Not at all

Tea Party

Total

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

21%
22%
20%
36%

18%
21%
21%
40%

26%
23%
19%
32%

26%
18%
3%
52%

23%
19%
18%
41%

17%
23%
24%
36%

27%
25%
23%
26%

20%
23%
21%
36%

29%
18%
16%
37%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(658)

(371)

(287)

(80)

(114)

(298)

(166)

(520)

(123)

12

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

12. Troops to Fight ISIS
Do you favor or oppose sending US ground troops to the Middle East to fight ISIS?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Favor
Oppose
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

74%
26%

77%
23%

72%
28%

73%
27%

76%
24%

73%
27%

77%
23%

70%
30%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(639)

(216)

(336)

(52)

(319)

(304)

(353)

(233)

Gender
Favor
Oppose

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

74%
26%

76%
24%

72%
28%

49%
51%

85%
15%

79%
21%

67%
33%

74%
26%

74%
26%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(639)

(362)

(278)

(71)

(114)

(295)

(159)

(503)

(121)

13

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

13. Agree with each of the following statements about Illegal immigrants Illegal immigrants...
Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements about Illegal immigrants? Illegal immigrants...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Fill jobs Americans won’t do
Drive down Americans’ wages
Are generally hard-working people
Should be penalized/deported
Harm national security
(Weighted N)

(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

45%
81%
63%
89%
88%

36%
89%
51%
87%
92%

47%
77%
67%
89%
85%

50%
71%
66%
78%
73%

35%
88%
57%
93%
93%

52%
73%
64%
82%
80%

43%
79%
58%
84%
84%

43%
82%
68%
92%
89%

(658)

(232)

(340)

(52)

(331)

(311)

(369)

(236)

Gender
Fill jobs Americans won’t do
Drive down Americans’ wages
Are generally hard-working people
Should be penalized/deported
Harm national security

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

45%
81%
63%
89%
88%

39%
84%
64%
93%
91%

52%
75%
57%
81%
80%

22%
81%
55%
91%
88%

36%
87%
63%
88%
94%

50%
78%
62%
88%
87%

50%
78%
61%
86%
80%

45%
80%
64%
89%
87%

37%
80%
47%
82%
84%

(658)

(371)

(287)

(80)

(114)

(298)

(166)

(520)

(123)

14

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

14. Disagree with each of the following statements about Illegal immigrants Illegal immigrants...
Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements about Illegal immigrants? Illegal immigrants...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Fill jobs Americans won’t do
Drive down Americans’ wages
Are generally hard-working people
Should be penalized/deported
Harm national security
(Weighted N)

(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

55%
19%
37%
11%
12%

62%
10%
44%
13%
6%

51%
22%
31%
10%
14%

45%
29%
34%
20%
26%

63%
11%
39%
6%
5%

47%
27%
35%
17%
19%

55%
20%
39%
15%
14%

56%
17%
31%
7%
10%

(658)

(232)

(340)

(52)

(331)

(311)

(369)

(236)

Gender
Fill jobs Americans won’t do
Drive down Americans’ wages
Are generally hard-working people
Should be penalized/deported
Harm national security

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

55%
19%
37%
11%
12%

60%
16%
34%
7%
8%

46%
23%
39%
17%
17%

78%
19%
45%
9%
12%

64%
13%
37%
12%
6%

48%
21%
34%
10%
12%

48%
18%
36%
14%
17%

53%
19%
34%
10%
12%

62%
19%
50%
16%
15%

(658)

(371)

(287)

(80)

(114)

(298)

(166)

(520)

(123)

15

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

15. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement – Immigration
On which of these topics MUST a candidate agree with you to earn your vote, and on which is it okay if there are some differences between you?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Must agree with you
Okay with some differences
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

61%
39%

65%
35%

58%
42%

62%
38%

67%
33%

54%
46%

54%
46%

69%
31%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(646)

(225)

(337)

(51)

(325)

(305)

(358)

(235)

Gender
Must agree with you
Okay with some differences

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

61%
39%

66%
34%

53%
47%

54%
46%

53%
47%

62%
38%

66%
34%

62%
38%

58%
42%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(646)

(371)

(276)

(79)

(114)

(295)

(158)

(509)

(122)

16

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

16. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement – Matters of faith and religion
On which of these topics MUST a candidate agree with you to earn your vote, and on which is it okay if there are some differences between you?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Must agree with you
Okay with some differences
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

39%
61%

55%
45%

31%
69%


48%
52%

29%
71%

48%
52%

24%
76%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(228)

(335)

100%

(647)

(323)

(308)

(360)

(234)

Gender
Must agree with you
Okay with some differences

Tea Party

(49)
Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

39%
61%

38%
62%

40%
60%

57%
43%

42%
58%

32%
68%

41%
59%

41%
59%

28%
72%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(647)

(368)

(279)

(79)

(114)

(295)

(159)

(512)

(120)

17

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

17. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement – Handling ISIS
On which of these topics MUST a candidate agree with you to earn your vote, and on which is it okay if there are some differences between you?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Must agree with you
Okay with some differences
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

71%
29%

74%
26%

71%
29%

61%
39%

72%
28%

70%
30%

69%
31%

72%
28%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(650)

(228)

(338)

(51)

(328)

(307)

(366)

(236)

Gender
Must agree with you
Okay with some differences

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

71%
29%

73%
27%

69%
31%

41%
59%

67%
33%

76%
24%

80%
20%

71%
29%

77%
23%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(650)

(370)

(281)

(79)

(114)

(296)

(161)

(513)

(122)

18

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

18. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement – Same sex marriage
On which of these topics MUST a candidate agree with you to earn your vote, and on which is it okay if there are some differences between you?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Must agree with you
Okay with some differences
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

54%
46%

78%
22%

44%
56%


64%
36%

45%
55%

69%
31%

35%
65%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(228)

(336)

100%

(646)

(324)

(306)

(360)

(234)

Gender
Must agree with you
Okay with some differences

Tea Party

(49)
Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

54%
46%

55%
45%

52%
48%

59%
41%

52%
48%

49%
51%

62%
38%

57%
43%

39%
61%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(646)

(369)

(277)

(79)

(114)

(295)

(157)

(512)

(119)

19

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

19. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner – Donald Trump
Which of these candidates would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, if you could?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

59%
41%

56%
44%

59%
41%

75%
25%

67%
33%

52%
48%

54%
46%

67%
33%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(642)

(225)

(333)

(51)

(320)

(306)

(357)

(232)

Gender
Invite
Not Invite

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

59%
41%

64%
36%

52%
48%

68%
32%

55%
45%

57%
43%

60%
40%

56%
44%

73%
27%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(642)

(367)

(275)

(80)

(112)

(290)

(160)

(511)

(116)

20

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

20. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner – Ben Carson
Which of these candidates would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, if you could?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

83%
17%

85%
15%

85%
15%


87%
13%

80%
20%

86%
14%

80%
20%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(230)

(323)

100%

(629)

(324)

(289)

(354)

(223)

Gender
Invite
Not Invite

Tea Party

(49)
Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

83%
17%

90%
10%

75%
25%

71%
29%

80%
20%

90%
10%

80%
20%

82%
18%

89%
11%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(629)

(358)

(272)

(76)

(113)

(278)

(162)

(500)

(115)

21

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

21. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner – Ted Cruz
Which of these candidates would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, if you could?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

73%
27%

83%
17%

70%
30%


88%
12%

56%
44%

75%
25%

71%
29%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(230)

(326)

100%

(632)

(323)

(292)

(355)

(224)

Gender
Invite
Not Invite

Tea Party

(49)
Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

73%
27%

83%
17%

59%
41%

72%
28%

67%
33%

74%
26%

74%
26%

73%
27%

70%
30%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(632)

(359)

(273)

(76)

(113)

(279)

(164)

(505)

(111)

22

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

22. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner – Marco Rubio
Which of these candidates would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, if you could?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

68%
32%

64%
36%

73%
27%


68%
32%

68%
32%

63%
37%

78%
22%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(228)

(319)

100%

(623)

(320)

(286)

(355)

(216)

Gender
Invite
Not Invite

Tea Party

(48)
Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

68%
32%

74%
26%

61%
39%

54%
46%

63%
37%

74%
26%

69%
31%

72%
28%

50%
50%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(623)

(350)

(272)

(71)

(113)

(277)

(162)

(499)

(109)

23

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

23. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner – Jeb Bush
Which of these candidates would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, if you could?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

45%
55%

36%
64%

50%
50%


35%
65%

55%
45%

45%
55%

45%
55%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(216)

(330)

100%

(622)

(311)

(294)

(345)

(225)

Gender
Invite
Not Invite

Tea Party

(48)
Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

45%
55%

41%
59%

50%
50%

22%
78%

42%
58%

51%
49%

47%
53%

46%
54%

40%
60%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(622)

(356)

(266)

(76)

(111)

(281)

(153)

(500)

(107)

24

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

24. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner – Hillary Clinton
Which of these candidates would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, if you could?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

7%
93%

1%
99%

10%
90%


6%
94%

9%
91%

8%
92%

8%
92%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(215)

(317)

100%

(605)

(311)

(278)

(336)

(217)

Gender
Invite
Not Invite

Tea Party

(46)
Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

7%
93%

8%
92%

7%
93%

16%
84%

11%
89%

6%
94%

3%
97%

7%
93%

5%
95%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(605)

(350)

(255)

(76)

(111)

(268)

(150)

(484)

(106)

25

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

25. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner – Bernie Sanders
Which of these candidates would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, if you could?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

10%
90%

4%
96%

11%
89%


7%
93%

12%
88%

11%
89%

8%
92%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(215)

(318)

100%

(607)

(310)

(280)

(336)

(218)

Gender
Invite
Not Invite

Tea Party

(47)
Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

10%
90%

9%
91%

10%
90%

5%
95%

16%
84%

9%
91%

8%
92%

8%
92%

12%
88%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(607)

(351)

(256)

(76)

(111)

(269)

(151)

(485)

(106)

26