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India 201303

ASSIGNMENTS

PROGRAM:

SEMESTER-I

Subject Name

Study COUNTRY

: Sudan

Permanent Enrollment Number (PEN) :

Roll Number

: IB01652010-2012045

Student Name

: SOMAIA TAMBAL ELMALIK

INSTRUCTIONS

a) Students are required to submit all three assignment sets.

ASSIGNMENT

Assignment A

Assignment B

Assignment C

DETAILS

Five Subjective Questions

Three Subjective Questions + Case Study

40 Objective Questions

MARKS

10

10

10

b)

c)

d)

e)

All assignments are to be completed as typed in word/pdf.

All questions are required to be attempted.

All the three assignments are to be completed by due dates (specified from time to

time) and need to be submitted for evaluation by Amity University.

f) The evaluated assignment marks will be made available within six weeks. Thereafter,

these will be destroyed at the end of each semester.

g) The students have to attached a scan signature in the form.

Signature

Date

:

:

_____15.AUG.2011____________________________

Assignment A

Assignment B

Assignment C

Assignment A

enhancing creative and judicious capabilities of a decision maker, also

state the different elements of Decision.

Yes you can that because Managerial decision-making is a process by which management,

when faced with a problem,

chooses a specific course of action from a set of possible options. In making a decision, a

business manager attempts to choose that course of action which is most effective in the

given circumstances in attaining the goals of the organization. The various types of

decision-making situations that a manager might encounter can be listed as follows.

1. Decisions under certainty where all facts are known fully and for sure or uncertainly

where the event that would actually occur is not known but probabilities can be assigned to

various possible occurrences.

2. Decisions for one time-period only called static decisions, or a sequence of interrelated

decisions made either simultaneously or over several time periods called dynamic decisions.

3. Decisions where the opponent is nature (digging an oil well, for example) or a national

opponent (for instances, setting the advertising strategy when the actions of competitors

have to be considered)

These classes of decisions-making situations are not mutually exclusive and a given

situation would exhibit characteristics from each class. Stocking of an item for sale in a

certain trade fair, for instance, illustrates a static decision making situation where

uncertainly exists and nature is the opponent.

Ques. 2 The raw data displayed here are the scores (out of 100 marks) of a

market survey regarding the acceptability of a new product launch by a

company for a random sample of 50 respondents

40

25

41

43

38

44

45

26

42

44

37

45

41

9

39

36

36

40

45

23

35

27

35

39

45

24

18

32

32

41

30

26

25

28

38

39

29

35

27

40

8

8

40

25

41

48

40

42

26

43

No.

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

Classes

5 10

10 - 15

15 20

20 25

25 30

30 35

35 40

40 45

45 50

frequency

3

0

1

2

10

2

12

15

5

No. Classes

frequency

Percentage distribution

1. 5 10

3

6

2. 10 - 15

0

0

3. 15 20

1

2

4. 20 25

2

4

5. 25 30

10

20

6. 30 35

2

4

7. 35 40

12

24

8. 40 45

15

30

9. 45 50

5

10

c. Form a histogram, frequency polygon and frequency curve of the frequency

distribution (from part a)

Histogram figure as follow :

frequency curve :

Ques.3 Compute the mean, standard deviation and Coefficient of variation of the

following data and comment on the result

Size

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

14.5

15.0

15.5

16.0

Frequency

4

19

30

63

66

29

18

1

Standard deviation = = [(fx2/f) (fx/ f)2] = [(46633.5/230) (20047/ 230)2] =

[( 202.75) ( 87.16)2] = 10.75

Coefficient of variation ( CV ) = S . 100/ Xmean=1.2

Ques.4 Following figures give the rainfall in inches for the year and the production in

00 of Kgs. For the Rabi crop and Kharif crop. Calculate the Karl Pearsons

coefficient of correlation, between rainfall and total production and comment on the

result.

Rainfall

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

Rabi Production

15

18

20

32

40

39

40

Kharif Production

15

17

20

18

20

21

15

No.

X

Y ( Rabi

( x-26) ( y( x-26) ( y(Rainfall) production)

29.1)

29.1)

1.

20

15

-6

- 14.1

84.6

2.

22

18

-4

-11.1

44.4

3.

24

20

-2

-9.1

19.8

4.

26

32

0

2.9

0

5.

28

40

2

10.9

21.8

6.

30

39

4

9.9

39.6

7.

32

40

6

10.9

65.4

Total

257.6

The mean of x = 26

The mean of y = 29.1

Cov ( x, y)= 257.6 / 7= 36.8

N= 7

Sx = 4.32

Sy = 11.17

R = 36.8 / (4.32 * 11.17) = 36.8 / 48.25 = 0.76

The relation between rainfall and rabi production is perfect and positive

The correlation between rainfall and kharif production is :

No.

X

Y ( kharif

( x( y- 18) ( x-26) ( y(Rainfall) production)

26)

18)

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

Total

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

15

17

20

18

20

21

15

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

-3

-1

2

0

2

3

-3

18

4

4

0

4

12

-18

24

The mean of x = 26

The mean of y = 18

Cov ( x,y) = 24 / 7= 3.43

Sx = 4.32

Sy = 2.45

R = 3.43 / (4.32 * 2.45) = 3.43 / 10.584 = 0.324

are given below:

Marks in Physics: 35 23 47 17 10 43 9

6

28

Marks in Mathematics:30 33 45 23 8

49 12 4

31

Compute their ranks in the two subjects and coefficient of correlation of

ranks.

By using Spearmans Rank-correlation coefficient :

No.

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

Tota

l

R=

N=9

Physic Ranks(d

s

.1)

35

3

23

5

47

1

17

6

10

7

43

2

9

8

6

9

28

4

Mathemati

cs

30

33

45

23

8

49

12

4

31

=0.9

Ranks(d.

2)

5

3

2

6

8

1

7

9

4

d1 =( r1 d2

r2)

-2

4

2

4

-1

1

0

0

-1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

12

Assignment B

Poisson Distribution

The Poisson distribution is generally used when measuring the number of occurrences of

something (# of successes) over an interval or time period.

The assumptions of a Poisson probability distribution are:

The probability of the occurrence of an event is constant for all subintervals.

There can be no more than one occurrence in each subinterval.

Occurrences are independent; that is, the number of occurrences in any non-overlapping

intervals is independent of one another.

Normal Distribution or Normal Curve:

Normal distribution is probably one of the most important and widely used continuous

distribution. It is known as a normal random variable, and its probability distribution is

called a normal distribution.

ii. Four cards are drawn at random from a pack of 52 playing cards. Find

the probability of getting

a. all the four cards of the same suit

Answer: P = p1.p2.p3.p4= 1/4 X 1/4 X 1/4 X 1/4 = 0.0039

Answer: P= 4/52 X 3/51 X 2/50 X 1/49 =

= 0.0769 X 0.0588 X 0.04 X 0.0204 = 0.00000369

Answer: p = 4/52 (1/4 X 1/4 X 1/4 X 1/4) = 0.0003

Answer: p = 2/52 X 2/50 = 0.038 X 0.04 = 0.00152

Answer: p 4/52 X 1/13 = 0.077 X 0.077= 0.005989

Answer: p = 4/52 X 1/12 = 0.077 X 0.083 = 0.0064

Ques.2 The following table gives the aptitude test scores and productivity

indices of 10 workers selected at random:

Aptitude scores(X) 60

Productivity index(Y) 68

62

60

65

62

70

80

72

85

48

40

53

52

73

62

a. The productivity index of a worker whose test score is 92

b. The test score of a worker whose productivity index is 75

No.

Aptitude

scores(X)

1.

60

2.

62

3.

65

4.

70

5.

72

6.

48

7.

53

8.

73

9.

65

10.

82

Total 650

Productivity

index(Y)

68

60

62

80

85

40

52

62

60

81

650

Y = a + bX =

X = 650

Y = 650

XY = a X + X2

43294 = a * 650 + 36150

43294 - 36150= a650 =

x*y

X2

4080

3720

4030

5600

6120

1920

2756

4526

3900

6642

43294

3600

3844

4225

4900

5184

2034

2809

5329

4225

6724

36150

XY = 43294

X2 = 36150

a= 7144/650= 10.99

Answer,B :

Y = na +b X

650 = 10 *10.99 + b * 650

650 109.9 = b650

= 0.83

The equation :

Y = 10.99 + 0.83X

A: The productivity index of a worker whose test score is 92 :

While x = 92 y is :

Y = 10.99 + 92 * 0.83 = 87.4

65

60

82

81

Y = 75 X

75 = 10.99 + 0.83 X

X = 77.12

Ques.3 Discuss the different components of a time series and fit a trend line with

the help of following data by using Free hand curve method and Semi-averages

method:

Year 1993 94

Profit

10

(Rs. in lakhs).

95

12

96

16

97

8

98

6

99

14

2000 01

15 10

02

14

03

20

04

13

18

Freehand method:

Freehand method

Advantages

1. The Freehand method is a very simple method of estimating trend.

2. There is flexibility in this method as it can be used regardless whether the trend is a

straight line or non-linear.

3. If the statistician is well-conversant with the movement of the particular variable

involved in the time series, the use of this method may even give a better expression to the

long-term movement than the trend fitted by a rigid mathematical formula.

Limitations

1.This is a highly subjective method as the trend line fitted to the same set of data by this

method will vary from one person to another.

2. In view of the trend line being highly subjective, it is not an appropriate method for

making predictions.

3. It means very long experience on the part of the statistician to use this method, otherwise,

the trend fitted would not be of much use.

When the method of semi-averages is used, the given time series is divided into two parts

preferably with the same number of years. The average of each part is calculated and then a

trend line through these averages is fitted. This is illustrated with the data given in Table:

Year

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

X

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Y

10

12

16

8

6

14

15

10

14

20

13

18

Average

66/6=11

90/6=15

1) The average of first part of the data is 11 and that of the second part is I5. Since 11 is the

average of1993, 1994, 1995, 1996 , 1997and1998 11 is plotted in between 1997 and 1998,

which is the middle of the 6-year period. Likewise, 15 is plotted in between

2) 2003 and 2004. Then these points are joined by a straight line, which is a semi-average

trend line.

Advantages

1. The method of semi-averages is simple to use as anyone can use it conveniently.

2. This is an objective method as anyone applying it to the given set of data would get the

same trend line.

Limitations

1. This method will always give a straight line trend regardless of the nature of the given set

of data. Thus, it assumes a straight line relationship, which may not be true.

2. This method may give wrong trend-line on account of the limitations of arithmetic

average. In case there is an extreme value in either half or both halves of the time series,

then the trend line will not give a realistic growth of the phenomenon being measured. In

order to overcome this problem, it is necessary to ensure that the data do not have extreme

values.

A time series:

Is a chronological sequence of observations on a particular variable. Usually the

observations are taken at regular intervals (days, months, years), but the sampling could be

irregular. A time series analysis consists of two steps:

(2) using the model to predict (forecast) future values.

The time-series can be represented as a curve that evolves over time. Forecasting the timeseries mean that we extend the historical values into the future where the measurements are

not available yet. There are some subtleties in the definition a time-series forecast. For

example, the historical data might be daily sales and but you need monthly forecasts.

Grouping the values according to a certain period (ex: month) is called time-series.

The following are few examples of time series data:

1. Profits earned by a company for each of the past five years.

2. Workers employed by a company for each of the past 15 years.

3. Number of students registered for the MBA programme of an institute for each of the past

five years.

4. The weekly wholesale price index for each of the past 30 weeks.

5. Number of fatal road accidents in Delhi for each day for the past two months.

Role of time Series

1. A time series analysis enables one to study such movements as cycles that fluctuate

around the trend. Knowledge of cyclical pattern in certain series of data will be helpful in

making generalizations in the concerned business or industry.

2. The analysis of a time series enables us to understand the past behavior or performance.

We can know how the data have changed over time and find out the probable reasons

responsible for such changes. If the past performance, say, of a company, has been poor, it

can take corrective measures to arrest the poor performance.

3. A time series analysis helps directly in business planning. A firm can know the long-term

trend in the sale of its products. It can find out at what rate sales have been increasing over

the years. This may help it in making projections of its sales for the next few years and plan

the procurement of raw material, equipment and manpower accordingly.

4. A time series analysis enables one to make meaningful comparisons in two or more series

regarding the rate or type of growth. For example, growth in consumption at the national

level can be compared with that in the national income over specified period. Such

comparisons are of considerable importance to business and industry.

5. A time series analysis helps in evaluating current accomplishments. The actual

performance can be compared with the expected performance and the cause of variation

analyzed e.g. if we know how much is the effect of seasonality on business we may device

ways and means of ironing out the seasonal influence or decreasing it by producing

commodities with complementary seasons.

Components of a time series

1 Secular Trend - the smooth long term direction of a time series

2 Seasonal Variation - Patterns of change in a time series within a year which tends to repeat

each year

3 Cyclical Variation - the rise and fall of a time series over periods longer than one year

Episodic - unpredictable but identifiable

Residual - also called chance fluctuation and unidentifiable

Case Study

The marks obtained by seven students in Statistics and Accountancy are as

follows:

Age(X) 56 42 36 47 49 42 60 72 63 55

Blood

149

150

Pressure(Y)

147

125

118

128

145

140

155

160

SOLUTION:

i.Given the form of the scattered diagram, does it appear that a straight line provides an

accurate model for the data?

ii.Find the correlation coefficient between Age(X) and Blood Pressure(Y) and discuss its natur

No.

X

Y

1.

56

14

7

(X - X Mean) *(Y -Y X * Y

Mean)

20.14

8232

2.

42

3.

36

4.

47

5.

49

6.

42

7.

60

8.

72

9.

63

10.

55

Total

12

5

11

8

12

8

14

5

14

0

15

5

16

0

14

9

15

0

170.34

5250

383.94

4248

71.24

6016

10.56

7105

17.34

5880

103.74

9300

362.34

11520

78.84

9387

23.24

8250

1241.72

75188

Answer: ii.

X Mean = 52.2

Y Mean = 141.7

Cov = (X - X Mean) *(Y -Y Mean)/ n = 1241.72/ 10 = 124.172

Sx = 11.05

Sy = 13.76

The relation between age (x) and blood pressure is positive and strong .

iii.

Answer: iii.

The equation for a straight line is:

Y =a + bX

XY = a X + X2

:. A= XY- X2 / X

X= 522

X2= 28,348

Xy= 75188

A= 28348-75188 /522 = 89.7

B:

Y = na +b X

Y= 1417 n= 10 a= 89.7

x = 522

B= 0.996

So the equation is :

Y= 89.7 + 0.996 x

iv.

1417-897 = b* 522

x= 45

y = 89.7 + 0.996 * 45 = 134.52

The blood pressure of a woman whose age is 45 is 134.52

Assignment C

Ques.1 a sequence of interrelated decisions made either simultaneously or over several time periods called dynamic

decisions.

a. dynamic decisions()

b. static decisions

c. Both

d. None

Ques.2 Stocking of an item for sale in a certain trade fair, illustrates a

a. Static decision

b. Where uncertainly exists

c. Nature is opponent.

d. All of above()

Ques.3 Quantitative analysis is also called

a. Operations research

b. Management science

c. Quantitative techniques

d.

b. empirical observation and qualitative expression

c. empirical observation and social expression

d. empirical observation and all expression

Ques.5 Most of the business decisions can be made on the basic of

a. Rule of thumb

b. Commonsense

c. Snap judgment.

d. Quantitative Techniques()

Ques.6 Statistics is a branch of

a. applied physics

b. applied mathematics()

c. applied commerce

d. Dramatics

Ques.7 The mean of 7, 12, 24, 20, 19 is

a. 14

b. 16

c. 15.4

d. 16.4()

Ques.8 (X/c) =

a. ( X)/n c

b. ( X)/ c

c. ( X)/c()

d. X/c.

Ques.9 Midterm exam scores for a small advanced neuroanatomy class are provided below. Scores represent

percent of items marked correct on the exam.

87,99,75,87,94,75,35,88,87,93

The mode of the distribution

a. 75

b. 87()

c. 88

d. 94

Ques.10 Which measure of Central tendency is most efficient

a. Mean()

b. Median

c. Mode

d. All are equal

e.

Ques.11 Mean Deviation can be calculated from

a. Mean()

b. Median

c. Mode.

d. All the three

Ques.12 Qualitative data are

a. Non-numeric()

b. Numeric

c. Can be both

d. None

Ques.13 The numeric data that have a finite number of possible values is called

a. Continuous data

b. Discrete data()

c. Datum

d. None

Ques.14 The Coefficient of Variance is expressed as

a.

CV =

.S . X 100()

Xmean

b. CV =

.S .

Xmean

c. CV = . Xmean . X 100

S

d. CV = (X - Xmean )

Ques.15 Which one is unaffected by extreme scores

a. Mean

b. Median()

c. Mode

d. Range

Ques.16 A storeowner kept a tally of the sizes of suits purchased in her store. Which measure of central tendency

should the storeowner use to describe the average suit sold?

a. Mean()

b. Median

c. Mode

d. None

Ques.17 The correlation coefficient, r = -1, implies

a. Perfect negative()

b. Perfect positive

c. No correlation

d. Limited correlation

Ques.18 If two variables changes in the opposite direction and in the same proportion, the correlation between the

two is

a. Perfect positive

b. Limited positive

c. Limited Negative

d.

Perfect negative()

Ques.19 The value of r gives the magnitude of correlation and its sign denotes its

a. Value

b. Direction()

c. Both

d. None

Ques.20 By the Rank method the value of R is -0.73 it suggests a

b. fairly strong positive relationship

c. Perfect negative

d. Perfect positive

Ques.21 The range of the correlation coefficient is?

a. -1 to 0.

b. 0 to 1.

c. -1 to 1.()

d. None of the above.

Ques.22 When looking at a sequence of monthly postal revenue data, we note that the revenue is consistently

highest in December. The high December revenue is an illustration of:

a. trend

b. seasonal variation()

c. irregular fluctuations

d. a cycle

Ques.23 Which of the following is NOT an assumption of the Binomial distribution?

b. All trials must be independent.

c. Each trial must be classified as a success or a failure.

d. The probability of success is equal to .5 in all trials.

Ques.24.In Regression Analysis the independent variable is also known as

a. Regressed variable()

b. Regressor variable

c.

d.

Random variable

All of the above

Ques.25.Given that we have collected pairs of observations on two variables X and Y , we would consider fitting a

straight line with X as an explanatory variable if:

b. the change in Y is a constant for each unit change in X()

c. the change in Y is a fixed percent of Y

d. the change in Y is exponential

Ques.26 In Regression Analysis, a single regression line is obtained in case if

a. r = +1

b. r = -1

c.r = +1()

c. r = 0

Ques.27 The regression Analysis Studies

b. two-way causal effect

c. interdependence of the variables

d. dependence of the variables()

Ques.28 Correlation Coefficient is the ---------------between the regression coefficients

a. arithmetic mean

b. geometric mean()

c. harmonic mean

d. median

Ques.29 Gradual shifting of a time series over a long period of time is called

a. periodicity.

b. cycle.

c. regression.

d. trend.()

Ques.30 The trend component is easy to identify by using

a. moving averages()

b. exponential smoothing

c. regression analysis

d. the Delphi approach

Ques.31 Seasonal components

a. cannot be predicted.

b. are regular repeated patterns.()

c. are long runs of observations above or below the trend line.

d. reflect a shift in the series over time.

1. Ques.32 What probability is shown on the Venn diagram by the shaded region below t probability is shown on

the Venn diagram below

a. a. p(A)

b. b. p(B)

c. p(A and B)

d. p(not

B)()

Ques.33 At Sanjay Middle School, 3 out of 5 students make honor roll. What is the probability that a student does not

make honor roll?

a. 65%

b. 40%()

c. 60%

d. None of the above

Ques.34 In a class of 30 students, there are 17 girls and 13 boys. Five are A students, and three of these students

are girls. If a student is chosen at random, what is the probability of choosing a girl or an A student?

a. 19/30

b. 11/50()

c. 12/30

d. 15/40

Ques.35

In a shipment of 100 televisions, 6 are defective. If a person buys two televisions from that shipment, what is the p

are defective?

a. 3/100()

b. 1/330

c. 9/2500

d. 6/100

Ques.36 Find the correlation coefficient r(X, Y) between X and Y,when

Cov(X,Y) = -2.45, Var (X) = 8.25 and Var (Y) = 21.49

a. 0.18

b. 0.18()

c. 0.36

d. 0.36

Ques.37 A coin is tossed 5 times. What is the probability of getting atleast 3 heads?

a. 1/2

b. 1/3

c. 1/4

d. 1/5()

Ques.38 Normal Distribution is symmetrical about its

a. Harmonic mean

b. Mean()

c.

d.

Range

Standard deviation

Ques.39 In Normal Distribution 95% of the observations fall within 2 standard deviations of the mean, that is,

between

a. - and +

b. - 2 and +2()

c. - 3 and +3

d. Not defined

Ques.40 Condition for the Applicability of Binomial Distribution:

b. The trials do not depend on each other.

c. Each trial should have only two possible outcomes, either a success or a failure.

d. All of the above()

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