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City of Everett Fire Department Data Analysis

(2006)
Phil Engel / Ben DuSchene
Math 370: Statistics for Engineers
October 16th, 2015

General Statistics for Response Times:


Min. Response Time
Max. Response Time
Mean (Average) Response Time
Median
Standard Deviation
Variance

0 secs
29 mins 46 seconds
4 mins 52 seconds
4 mins 32 seconds
3 mins 34 seconds (00:03:34)
12 minutes and 45 seconds

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Table of Contents
Graphical Analysis of Response Times for Global Data ................................................................................... 3
One-Sample Z: Total Response Time in Minutes ......................................................................................... 4
Fire Zone Response Times ............................................................................................................................... 4
Two sample T-test:........................................................................................................................................... 6
Two-Sample T-Test and CI: BA245, BA400: ................................................................................................. 6
Two-Sample T-Test and CI: Medx, Medic: ................................................................................................... 7
Shortest Response Time: ................................................................................................................................. 7
Calls in the 900s resulting in patient transport:.............................................................................................. 8
Extra Statistical Information: ........................................................................................................................... 8
Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................................ 8
Appendix A ....................................................................................................................................................... 9
Appendix B ..................................................................................................................................................... 10
Works Cited .................................................................................................................................................... 11

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Graphical Analysis of Response Times for Global Data

Graph 1

Above is a graph showing the statistical data of the global response times plotted on a probability plot.
This plot graphs the response times vs. the percent probability of that plot roughly 10% of the recorded
response times for incidents are between 0 and 1 seconds. Response times from 10% to 90% (Or a net of
80% of the global population data) fall between 0 minutes and 9 minutes. Response times from 90% to
99.99% (Or a net of 9.99% or ~10%) fall anywhere between 10 minutes and 30 minutes.
The Logistic Cumulative Distribution graph was utilized because when comparing it to other graphs, the
logistic plot had the lowest AD value and the highest P-value. These values tell us this graph was the best
fit to model characteristics of a normally distributed set of data. Our sample size of the global population
data we analyzed was N=5,332 samples. Other graphs that were considered fell outside of the parameters
of consideration for normalcy and are shown in Appendix B.
By performing a Z-test, we can test a random sample of the response time data and compare it to Everett
Fire Departments 2006 response time average that was calculated.
Z-test:
0 = = 0
1 = > 0

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One-Sample Z: Total Response Time in Minutes


Test of = 4.8674 vs < 4.8674
The standard deviation = 3.5606

Variable
Total Response Time in minutes

N
Mean StDev SE Mean
5293 4.9033 3.5606 0.0489

95% Upper Bound


4.9838

Z P
0.73 0.768

This data indicates that there is a 76.8% chance that the response time of any call will not be greater than
4.87 minutes.

Fire Zone Response Times


Here we pulled data from discovering the fire zones with the longest response time and shortest response
time. We decided to do a Z-Test and and a T-Test on a random sample of those fire zones to compare the
two test and show that they are similar in the values that they produce. Then a comparison was made
from the sample mean to the population mean to see if the response times generally take that long to get
to that specific fire zone.

Longest Response Time:


QUESTION: What fire zone is the maximum response time from? The longest response time with a
recorded fire zone was Fire Zone BA342 with a response time of 26 minutes and 11 seconds. We decided
to do a Z-test and T-test to test the probability of a sample mean of the BA342 fire zone being higher than
the population mean. In other words, does the highest recorded response time happen all the time in this
fire zone, and what is the probability of a trip to Fire Zone BA342 taking this amount of time compared to
your yearly average response times?
Z-test and T-test calculations:
0 = = 0
1 = > 0
=

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0 =

Plugging in the initial conditions we can find Z and t0


=

>
(

(
(

7.63 4.867

= 2.45
3.561/10
.05 = 1.645

7.63 4.867
) = 2.45
3.561
10

= 0.992857
))

Sample values were:


Population mean: 0 = 4:52 minutes
Sample mean: = 7:37 minutes
Standard deviation: = 3:34 minutes

We fail to reject the hypothesis that the sample mean is greater than the hypothesized mean.
This means 99.3% of the samples are within the mean where the mean is 4.867 minutes. This
calculation was done within a confidence interval of 95%.
0 =

7.63 4.87

= 1.26
6.92/10
,1 = .05,9 = 1.833

,1 Value from Table II in Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers. Montgomery, 5th
Edition
Because 0 < ,1, we fail to reject the null hypothesis that the sample mean is greater than the
population mean.
The probability of the BA342 sample mean being the same as the global population mean is 88.1%
measured by the P-Value of the data, calculated from the t-value and an alpha of .05.
P(t = 1.833 > t0 = 1.26)
This P-value states that 11.9% of the time, the response time for fire zone BA342 will be greater
than the population mean (4:52 seconds).

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Sample values used were:
Population mean: 0 = 4:52 minutes
Sample mean: = 7:37 minutes
Sample standard deviation: = 5:55 minutes
The conclusion of these two tests was that they produce similar results and can be relied on to produce
probabilities within a certain measure of error.

Two sample T-test:


A two sample T-test was performed on the response times for Station BA245 against BA400 and again on
Calls with a Medx vs Medic designation to test if these fire zone means were replicable to one another
(they have around the same mean value, and how often does happen). The results are shown below and
discussed. Using the formula below two separate tests were conducted.
0 =

1
2 0
2 2
1+ 2
1 2

Two-Sample T-Test and CI: BA245, BA400:


Two-sample T for BA245 vs BA400
Sample values were: All BA245 and BA400 samples available
Population mean: 1 , 2 = 4:52 minutes
Sample mean: = 7:49 minutes
Sample standard deviation: = 5:49 minutes

Fire Zone
BA245
BA400

N
11
9

Mean
3.31
11.44

StDev
1.40
4.29

SE Mean
0.42
1.4
Table of Fire zone Values

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Difference = (BA245) - (BA400)


Estimate for difference: -8.13
95% CI for difference: (-11.51, -4.76)
T-Test of difference = 0 (vs ): T-Value = -5.45 P-Value = 0.000 DF = 9
Conclusion for BA245 and BA400:
This means the response times from different stations randomly chosen are not comparable. With a 95%
CI with upper bounds of -4.76 the T-value is too close to that value and has a high probability of falling
outside of that confidence level.

Two-Sample T-Test and CI: Medx, Medic:


Two-sample T for Medx vs Medic
Mean StDev SE Mean
Fire Zone
N
Medx
25
Medic
25

Mean
5.77
17.30

StDev
2.08
4.55

SE Mean
0.42
0.91
Table of Medic vs Medx Values

Difference = (Medx t) - (Medic t)


Estimate for difference: -11.54
95% CI for difference: (-13.57, -9.50)
T-Test of difference = 0 (vs ): T-Value = -11.53 P-Value = 0.000 DF = 33
In the test for the medx vs medic there was a very large probability that the times would be
different.

Shortest Response Time:


A shortest response time could not be determined in a specific fire zone within the data, because multiple
fire zones had 0 second response times. Our class had an opportunity to ask questions with one of the
head firefighters, Sebastian Sittig, and determined that often fire fighters report in calls to dispatch where
they are already at the scene, and thus the response time would be zero or nearly zero seconds. From this
information it can be concluded that it is not possible to determine a specific fire zone with the shortest
response time because an instantaneous response could happen almost anywhere at any time.

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Calls in the 900s resulting in patient transport:


There were zero calls in our 2006 data which resulted in patient transport.

Extra Statistical Information:


Performing a simple calculation on all of the response times, we can derive a comparison of a time of 5.75
minute with Everetts response times.
Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

April

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Incidents

163

165

153

148

186

222

280

259

191

190

2006

95%

81%

60%

90%

94%

92%

92%

48%

98%

90%

Nov.

Dec

Total

228

3145

5145

1.3%

100%

Chart 2
Chart 2 indicates the probability of times being less than the objective time of 5.75 minutes 90% of the
time.

Conclusion:
An experientially learned value from this report was processing data consistently is imperative to deriving
reliable data. The total response time data did not produce a reliable result that could be considered
normal. Referencing graph 1 it is seen that the times close to zero are abundant and skewed the data.
The total response times for the Everett fire station under investigation were reliably less than or equal to
the mean time of 4 minutes and 52 seconds. The Z-test and T-test produced similar results and if it were
not for defining features of sample size and known values could be used interchangeably. The Medic vs
Medx calls contained a high probability of being different. A possible conclusion drawn from this is that
the Responding entity valued one call as having a necessity to contain more urgency than the other.
The data gained from each year is the main point of interest in this report. As shown in chart 2, the
incidents dramatically increased in December 2006. It is presumed that this could either be in error or
more likely that this is the month the data is the most complete. Without further discussion from the
Everett Fire Department it is impossible to reason the nature of this anomaly. Another interesting note in
chart 2 is that in March and November calls were less likely to meet the demand times. This most likely is
due to high demand in calls and not enough personnel to cover the calls per a discussion with one of the
firefighters. The month of December has the highest probability of the calls being less than 5.75 minutes
and should be further analyzed. Further comparisons to the Seattle firefighters chart in Appendix A
indicates that the demands met are similar but there are many inconsistencies the 2006 Everett data that
are not present in the 2012 Seattle data. It is recommended that these inconsistencies be discussed with
the Everett fire department.

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Appendix A

http://www.seattle.gov/fire/deptinfo/AnnualReport/Seattle%20Fire%20Department%20Annual%20Repor
t%202012.pdf

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Appendix B

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Works Cited
Montgomery, Douglas C., George C. Runger, and Norma Faris Hubele. Engineering Statistics, 5th Ed.:
Student Solutions Manual. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley, 2011. Print.
Seattle Fire Department Strategic Plan 2012-2017. Seattle?: Dept., 2012. Seattle Fire Department 2012
Emergency Response Report. 2012. Web. 16 Oct. 2015.