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Engineering Statistics

Discrete Probability Distributions

Course outline
Random Variables
Discrete Probability Distributions
Expected Value and Variance
Binomial Probability Distribution
Poisson Probability Distribution
Hypergeometric Probability Distribution
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0,2
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0,1
0,05
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Random Variable
A random variable is a numerical description of the outcome
of an experiment.
The particular numerical value of the random variable
depends on the outcome of the experiment.
A random variable can be classified as being either discrete
or continuous depending on the numerical values it
assumes.
A discrete random variable may assume either a finite
number of values or an infinite sequence of values, such as
0,1,2,3
A continuous random variable may assume any numerical
value in an interval or collection of intervals, for example
0<X<20
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Examples of discrete random variables


Experiment

Random Variable (X)

Possible Values
for the Random
Variable

Contact five
customers

Number of customers
who place an order

0,1,2,3,4,5

Inspect
shipment of
50 pumps

Number of defective
pumps

1,2,3,,49,50

Operate a toll
road in a day

Number of cars arriving


the tollbooth in a day

1,2,3,..

Ferry services
in a day

Number of passengers
1,2,3,..
using the ferry services in
a day

Discrete random variable


with a finite number of
values

Discrete random variable


with an infinite number
Sequence of values

Continuous Random Variables


A random variable is continuous if it can assume
any numerical value in an interval or collection of
intervals
Experimental outcomes that can be described by
continuous random variables:
Heights, weights, temperature, etc
Waiting times
Measurement errors
Length of life of a particular equipment
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Discrete Probability Distributions


The probability distribution for a random variable describes
how probabilities are distributed over the values of the
random variable.
The probability distribution is defined by a probability
function, denoted by f(x), which provides the probability for
each value of the random variable.
The required conditions for f(x):
f(x) > 0
f(x) = 1
We can describe a discrete probability distribution with a
table, graph, or equation.
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Example
Probability distribution for the number of
automobiles sold during a day at DicarloMotors

Example
Graphical Representation of the Probability
Distribution

Discrete Probability Distribution


Discrete uniform probability distribution
Binomial probability distribution
Poisson probability distribution

Discrete Uniform Probability Distribution


The discrete uniform probability distribution is the simplest
example of a discrete probability distribution given by a
formula.
The discrete uniform probability function is:

Note that ALL values of the random variable are equally likely.
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Expected Value and Variance


The expected value, or mean, of a random variable is a
measure of its central location.

The variance summarizes the variability in the values of a


random variable.

The standard deviation, , which is the positive square root


of the variance.
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Example
Expected Value of a Discrete Random Variable
Calculation of the expected value for the number of
automobiles sold during a day at Dicarlo Motors

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Example
Variance and Standard Deviation of a Discrete
Random Variable
Calculation of the variance for the number of automobiles
sold during a day at DicarloMotors

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Binomial Probability Distribution


Binomial Distribution is one of the most important discrete
distributions. It is associated with a multiple-step experiment
called Binomial Experiment.
Properties of a Binomial Experiment
1. The experiment consists of a sequence of n identical
trials.
2. Two outcomes, success and failure, are possible on
each trial.
3. The probability of a success, denoted by p, does not
change from trial to trial. (p is fixed)
4. The trials are independent.
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Binomial Probability Function

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Example: Martin Clothing Store Problem


Let us consider the purchase decisions of the next
three customers who enter the Martin Clothing
Store. On the basis of past experience, the store
manager estimates the probability that any one
customer will make a purchase is 0,30.
What is the probability that two of the next three
customers will make a purchase?

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Example: Martin Clothing Store Problem


Using Tree
S to denote success (a purchase) and F to denote failure (no
purchase), we are interested in experimental outcomes involving
two successes in the three trials (purchase decisions).
Checking the four requirements for a binomial experiment, we
note that:
The experiment can be described as a sequence of three identical trials, one
trial for each of the three customers who will enter the store.
Two outcomes the customer makes a purchase (success) or the customer
does not make a purchase (failure) are possible for each trial.
The probability that the customer will make a purchase (0,30) or will not
make a purchase (0,70) is assumed to be the same for all customers.
The purchase decision of each customer is independent of the decisions of
the other customers

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Example: Martin Clothing Store Problem


Using Tree Diagram

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Example: Martin Clothing Store Problem


Using Tree Diagram

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Example: Martin Clothing Store Problem

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Example: Martin Clothing Store Problem

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Example: Martin Clothing Store Problem

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Example: Martin Clothing Store Problem

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Example: Martin Clothing Store Problem

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Example

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Binomial Probability Distribution


Expected Value
E(x) = = np
Variance

Var(x) = 2 = np(1 - p)
Standard Deviation
SD( x) = = np (1 p )

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Example: Martin Clothing Store problem

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Example
Sebuah pabrik menemukan bahwa secara ratarata 20% dari baut yang diproduksi oleh sebuah
mesin akan mengalami penyimpangan dari
persyaratan yang dispesifikasikan (cacat). Jika 10
baut dipilih secara acak dari produksi harian
mesin ini, maka hitunglah probabilitas:
Tepat dua baut akan cacat
Minimal dua baut akan cacat

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Poisson Probability Distribution


The Poisson random variable X is used for
determining the number of occurrences of
specified event in a particular time interval or
space.
Examples:
Number of arrivals at a car wash in one hour
Number of machine breakdowns in a day
Number of repairs needed in 10 miles of highway
Number of leaks in 100 miles of pipeline.
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Poisson Probability Distribution


Properties of a Poisson Experiment
1. The probability of an occurrence is the same for any two
intervals of equal length.
2. The occurrence or non-occurrence in any interval is
independent of the occurrence or non-occurrence in any
other interval.

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Example
Using the Poisson Probability Function
The average machine breakdowns during their operation is
three per week. Find the probability of exactly one machine
breakdown during a week.

=
=3

!
3

31 3
1!

= 0,1493

Other time interval also can be used. For example, what is


exactly one machine breakdown during two weeks?
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Example
Using the Table of Poisson Probabilities
The average machine breakdowns during their operation is three
per week. Find the probability of exactly one machine breakdown
during a week.

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Example

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Unit consistency in probabilities calculation


Example:
Average machine breakdown during their
operation is three per week
Average machine breakdown during their
operation within two weeks is six machines
Average machine breakdown during their
operation within five weeks is fifteen machines

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Example
Using the Poisson Probability Function
The average machine breakdowns during their operation is
three per week. Find the probability of exactly 10 machines
breakdown during five weeks.
15
=
=
= 0.0486
!
10!

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Example
Karena kurangnya pengawasan saat penggelaran pipa,
diketahui bahwa kejadian kebocoran pipeline diketahui
mengikuti distribusi Poisson dengan rata-rata adalah 0,7
kebocoran setiap 10 km pipa. Dari informasi tersebut
hitunglah:
Peluang dalam 20 km pipa terjadi kurang dari 2 kebocoran.
Peluang dalam 20 km pipa terjadi lebih dari 2 kebocoran.
Peluang dalam 50 km pipa tidak terjadi kebocoran pipa sama
sekali.

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Hypergeometric Probability Distribution


The hypergeometric distribution is closely related to the
binomial distribution.
With the hypergeometric distribution, the trials are not
independent, and the probability of success changes from
trial to trial.

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Mean and Variance


Mean

Variance

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Example: Ontario Electric

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Example: Ontario Electric

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Example: Ontario Electric

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References
Anderson, Sweeney, Williams., Statistics for
Business and Economics, 11th Edition., West
Publishing Company, 2011.
Statistics for Business and Economics., Slides
Prepared by John S. Loucks St. Edwards
University,South-Western/Thompson Learning

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