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Thursday, December 10, 2015
Good morning from Hamburg and welcome to our second-last Daily FX Report for this week.
Time magazine named German Chancellor Angela Merkel its 2015 Person of the Year
yesterday, noting her resilience and leadership when faced with the refugee crisis and turmoil in
the European Union over its currency this year. Besides that Turkeys prime minister accused
Russia of attempted ethnic cleansing in northern Syria. He said Moscow was trying to drive out
the local Turkmen and Sunni Muslim populations to protect its military interests in the region.

Anyway, we wish you a successful trading day!

Market Review Fundamental Perspective

On Wednesday the Dow Jones Index of shares dropped 0.4 percent and the Standard & Poors
Index decreased 0.8 percent. New Zealands central bank said itrs fourth rate cut this year
should be sufficient to eventually return inflation to target, prompting a surge in the currency as
traders bet the bank has reached the end of this easing cycle. Yesterday the central bank
lowered its official cash rate a quarter percentage point back to a record-low to 2.5 percent. The
NZD/USD jumped 1.7 percent to 0.6740 and the AUD/NZD dropped 1 percent to 1.0750. The
AUD/USD traded at 0.7231.
The USD remains near a more than a decade high before the Fed meets next week to discuss
raising rates for the first time since 2006. At the same time, the ECB has reduced its deposit rate
further into negative territory, widening the gap between the two central banks monetary
policies. The EUR/USD advanced 1.2 perecnt to 1.1022, extending gains since the ECB fell
short of market expectations for monetary stimulus on December 3. The USD suffered its largest
one-day decline in over three months versus the JPY, breaking out of a 122.23 -123.77 range
seen in the past month. The USD/JPY weakened 1.2 percent to 121.60. The EUR/JPY traded at
133.95. Chinas factory-gate prices fell for a record 45th straight month, reflecting weaker
demand for industrial goods and commodities. The USD/CNH advanced to as Chinas central
bank cut its reference rate to the lowest level since 2011.
The momentum in the U.K. housing market is showing little sign of fading as a worsening supply
shortage drives prices higher. It is forecast that the Bank of England will keep its record-low
borrowing costs for now. The GBP/USd rose to 1.5182 and the EUR/GBP climbed to 0.7254.

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Daily Technical Analysis

NZD/USD (Daily)
After the currency touched a four month high at the resistance 0.6897, it decreased towards the
second bullish trend line. There again it started climbing until the resistance level around 0.6787
stopped the bullis trend for a moment. The Stochastic still supports the bulls so another increase
of the pair is possible.

Support & Resistance (Daily)

Support Levels around

Resistance Levels around

0.66181

0.67879

0.64295

0.68973

0.62364

N/A

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GBP/CHF (Daily)
The strong long term bullish trend of the GBP/CHF might not endet yet although it dropped out
of the upward Fibonacci fan. Currently the bears are testing the support line around 1.4863 but
the Stochastic has bullish signals so we might assume that the close .support line will not be
broken.

Support & Resistance (Daily)

Support Levels around

Resistance Levels around

1.48632

1.51105

1.45967

1.54072

1.44665

1.55524

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AUD/JPY (Daily)
Since the beginning of September the AUD is constantly climbing versus the JPY inside a long
term bullish trend channel. The MACD is slightly decreasing, nevertheless we remain bullish as
long as the pair is moving inside the channel.

Support & Resistance (Daily)

Support Levels around

Resistance Levels around

87.836

89.130

86.458

90.737

85.561

92.469

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Daily Calendar & Key Events

Date

Time (GMT)

Economic Indicator

Last

Survey

10/12/2015

06:45

FR CPI YoY

0.1%

0.2%

10/12/2015

06:45

FR Industrial Production MoM

0.1%

0.0%

10/12/2015

06:45

FR Industrial Production YoY

1.8%

2.5%

10/12/2015

06:45

FR Manufacturing Production MoM

0.1%

0.0%

10/12/2015

06:45

FR Manufacturing Production

1.8%

2.5%

10/12/2015

08:30

UK Trade Balance

-1353

-1800

10/12/2015

11:00

UK Bank of England Bank Rate

0.50%

0.50%

10/12/2015

11:00

UK BOE Asset Purchase Target

375b

375b

10/12/2015

12:30

US Import Price Index YoY

-10.5%

-9.6%

10/12/2015

12:30

US Import Price Index MoM

-0.5%

-0.8%

10/12/2015

12:30

US Initial Jobless Claims

269K

270K

10/12/2015

12:30

US Continuing Claims

2161K

2155K

10/12/2015

13:45

US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort

39.6

10/12/2015

18:00

US Monthly Budget Statement

-$66.0b

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