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THE DES MOINES REGISTER / BLOOMBERG POLITICS IOWA POLL

SELZER & COMPANY
400 Republican likely caucusgoers
404 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points for Republicans
Margin of error ± 4.9 percentage points for Democrats

Study #2130
December 7-10, 2015
2,635 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list

Poll Questions
PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100% DUE TO ROUNDING.
Now, I’m going to mention some candidates for the Republican nomination for president. For each, please tell me
if your feelings are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don’t know
enough about the person to answer, just say so. (Record “don’t know” as “not sure.” Rotate list.)
Mostly
Favorable

Mostly
Unfavorable

Very
Unfavorable

Not
Sure

6

32

32

22

7

14
10
11
17
9

36
36
32
29
41

25
31
27
25
19

18
19
18
18
9

7
5
13
11
22

28

44

13

9

6

53
46
24
28
24

31
33
32
22
17

7
6
10
9
4

5
2
5
3
4

4
13
29
38
51

42*

8

38

24

19

11

39
29
28*
36
39

49
59
58
54
45

6
5
6
7
8

32
24
21
29
31

28
36
39
32
29

21
23
19
22
16

12
12
14
10
16

Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

73

19*

43

30

12

6

9

61
61
59
58
52

26
24
20
21
18

28
29
20
22
20

33
32
39
36
32

15
17
13
14
11

11
7
7
7
7

13
15
21
21
30

Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

52

33*

12

40

22

10

15

66
64
41*

22
15
19*

26
31
13

40
33
27

13
8
12

9
7
8

12
21
40

Jan-15

15

19

4

11

13

6

66

Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

16

53

1

15

31

22

31

18
15
22*

53
59*
38

3
2
4

14
13
19

27
35
23

26
25
15

29
26
40

Among likely Republican caucusgoers
Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida

Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon

Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon from
Maryland
Chris Christie, governor of New Jersey

Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas

Carly Fiorina, former CEO of HewlettPackard
Carly Fiorina, former CEO of HewlettPackard and candidate for the U.S. Senate
in California
Lindsey Graham, U.S. senator from
South Carolina

Fav

Unf

Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

39*

54

50
45*
43
46
50

43
50
45
43
28

Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

72

22

84
79
56
50
41

12
8
15
12
8

Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

46
*

Very
Favorable

____________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 1

Among likely Republican caucusgoers

Fav

Unf

Very
Favorable

Mostly
Favorable

Mostly
Unfavorable

Very
Unfavorable

Not
Sure

Mike Huckabee, former governor of
Arkansas

Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

53

38

16

37

26

12

9

61
61
61
66
59

33
30*
30
28
30

18
17
21
28
23

43
44
40
38
36

22
21
21
21
23

11
10
9
7
7

6
9
9
6
11

John Kasich, governor of Ohio

Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

19

46

5

14

31

15

34

31*
33*
25
22
17

33*
22
16*
14
7

8
10
7
7
3

22
22
18
15
14

22
17
11
10
5

12
5
4
4
2

36
45
59
64
76

Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

37

50*

9

28

30

19

14

43
39*
55
64
59

48*
49
34
25
24

12
11
16
25
21

30
29
39
39
38

29
31
24
18
18

18
18
10
7
6

10
12
11
11
17

Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

70

21

24

46

15

6

9

70*
67
60
57
54

20
20
17
20
16

26
24
20
16
14

43
43
40
41
40

12
15
12
15
12

8
5
5
5
4

10
13
23
23
30

Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from
Pennsylvania

Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

42

43*

8

34

28

14

16

51
48*
56
57
52

34*
37*
28
30
30

12
11
18
16
14

39
38
38
41
38

21
26
19
22
20

14
10
9
8
10

15
15
16
13
18

Donald Trump, a businessman from New
York

Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15

57

38

25

32

17

21

5

59
61*
27
26

37
35
63*
68

27
26
7
4

32
34
20
22

19
16
31
36

18
19
33
32

5
4
10
6

Rand Paul, U.S. senator from Kentucky

Marco Rubio, U.S. senator from Florida

Donald Trump, businessman and
television personality

*

____________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 2

Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in first choice question, code second choice as
No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)

Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
“Uncommitted” (VOL–only if respondent
says the word “uncommitted.”)
Not sure
No first choice
9a.
9b.

First

Second

Combined

6
13
3
31
1
3
2
3
10
1
21
3

5
14
3
20
4
5
2
3
14
2
14
3

11
27
6
51
5
8
4
6
24
3
35

4

4
7

Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted, or Not sure in Q.13a [AC=17,18], code Q.13b as
No first choice [AC=19] and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers

Jeb Bush

Ben Carson

Chris Christie

Ted Cruz

Carly Fiorina

First
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15

Second

Combined

6

5

11

5
6
9
8

5
4
7
7

10
10
16
15

13

14

27

28
18
10
9

19
14
5
10

47
32
15
19

3

3

6

1
2
4
4

2
1
4
3

3
3
8
7

31

20

51

10
8
5
5

9
10
8
6

19
18
13
11

1

4

5

4
5
2
1

13
11
3
1

17
16
5
2

____________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 3

First

Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham

Mike Huckabee

John Kasich

George Pataki

Rand Paul

Marco Rubio

Rick Santorum

Donald Trump

“Uncommitted” (VOL–only if respondent
says the word “uncommitted.”)

Not sure

No first choice

Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15

Second

Combined

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

1

1

2*

3

5

8

3
4
9
10

3
4
8
7

6
8
17*
17

2

2

4

2
2
2
1

2
3
1
1

4
5
3
2

-

-

-

-

1

1

3

3

6

5
4
10
14

4
3
5
9

9
7
15
23

10

14

24

9
6
6
3

11
8
12
8

20
14
18
11

1

2

3

2
1
6
4

1
2
6
6

3
3
12
10

21

14

35

19
23
4
1

9
9
2
1

28
32
6
2

3

3

3
5
4
2

2
1
2
1

4

4

7
5
7
5
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15

2
4
5
6

7
11
10
11
7

*“Combined” does not match the “ever/never” question below for certain candidates due to rounding.
____________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 4

When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or
could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said “No first
choice” have been coded as “Could still be persuaded.”)
Among all Rep CGs
Dec-15
Oct-15

n=400
n=401

±4.9% pts
±4.9% pts

Mind is
made up

Could still be
persuaded

Not
sure

33

66

1

22

78

1

When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or
could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said “No first
choice” have been coded as “Could still be persuaded.”)
Among Cruz supporters
Dec-15
Oct-15

n=120
n=36

±9.0% pts
±16.6% pts

Mind is
made up

Could still be
persuaded

Not
sure

43

55

2

37

63

-

When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or
could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said “No first
choice” have been coded as “Could still be persuaded.”)
Among Trump supporters
Dec-15
Oct-15

n=86
n=80

±10.6% pts
±11.0% pts

Mind is
made up

Could still be
persuaded

Not
sure

45

55

-

32

67

1

When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or
could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said “No first
choice” have been coded as “Could still be persuaded.”)
Among Carson supporters
Dec-15
Oct-15

n=49
n=109

±14.1% pts
±9.4% pts

Mind is
made up

Could still be
persuaded

Not
sure

34

61

4

15

83

1

Do you think you will have your mind made up at least a week before the caucus, or will you still be deciding the
week leading up to the caucus?
All Rep CGs
n=400
±4.9% pts

Cruz
supporters
n=120
±9.0% pts

Trump
supporters
n=86
±10.6% pts

Carson
supporters
n=49
±14.1% pts

33

43

45

34

30
32

30
23

31
22

26
35

5

5

1

4

Mind is already made up (Code only if “mind is
made up” in previous question)
Will make mind up at least a week before the caucus
Will still be deciding the week leading up to the
caucus
Not sure

____________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 5

(Asked only for each candidate NOT answered as first or second choice.) I’m going to mention the candidates who are
not your first or second choice. For each, please tell me if you think you could ever support the person for president or
would never support the person for president. (Read appropriate names. Use same rotation as horserace questions. If
selected as first or second choice, code as “1st or 2nd choice and do not ask.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers

Jeb Bush

Ben Carson

Chris Christie

Ted Cruz

Carly Fiorina

Jim Gilmore

Lindsey Graham

Mike Huckabee

John Kasich

George Pataki

Rand Paul

Marco Rubio

Ever

Never

Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

45

41

3

11

48
50
38

40
39
35

2
2
10

10
9
16

Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

55

17

2

26

41
50
47

10
12
18

3
6
20

47
32
15

Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

51

40

3

7

45
44
34

48
48
45

4
5
13

3
3
8

Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

31

17

2

50

49
54
49

27
24
21

5
4
18

19
18
13

Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

57

33

5

5

54
55
38

23
20
27

6
9
30

17
16
5

Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15

14

59

28

-

17
20

59
51

24
28

-

Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

29

61

9

-

25
30
29

63
57
43

11
13
25

1
3

Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

57

32

3

8

60
60
51

31
28
24

3
4
9

6
8
16

Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

32

53

11

4

36
41
29

45
40
28

14
14
40

4
5
3

Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

19

66

15

-

19
26
20

63
57
41

18
17
38

1

Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

47

44

4

5

43
43
45

45
43
30

4
6
10

9
8
15

Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

56

19

2

23

55
60
49

20
19
18

5
6
15

20
15
18

____________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 6

Not sure

1st or 2nd
choice

Among likely Republican caucusgoers

Rick Santorum

Donald Trump

Not sure

1st or 2nd
choice

Ever

Never

Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

54

40

3

3

53
56
51

38
35
26

5
6
11

4
3
12

Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

33

30

3

34

35
36
28

34
29
58

3
3
8

27
32
6

*“Combined” in the horserace question does not match “1st/2nd choice” for certain candidates in the ever/never
question due to rounding.
All other things being equal, which of the following is a more attractive candidate for president at this time:
(Read and rotate list.)
Rep CG

19
30
39
12

A governor, who has worked with a legislature and who has been responsible for balancing a budget
A U.S. senator, who has involvement with national security and international relations and diplomatic issues
A government outsider who has handled complex issues and managed teams
Not sure

I have some questions comparing just [BEN CARSON], [TED CRUZ], [MARCO RUBIO], and [DONALD TRUMP].
Which one do you think: (Rotate candidate names and rotate list.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers

Has the best temperament to be president
Would be best at dealing with Vladimir Putin
Would work most effectively with Congress
Has the most appropriate life experience to be president
Knows the most about how to get things done
Cares the most about people like you
Has the right values to lead the nation
Would be best at managing the economy
Would do the most to solve the illegal immigration problem
Can best combat Islamic terrorism
Would make the best commander in chief
Would do the most to make all abortion illegal
Would be the best at reducing the federal deficit
Has the best chance of beating Hillary Clinton

Carson

Cruz

Rubio

Trump

Not
sure

23
10
18
10
6
24
22
7
5
5
12
23
6
11

34
31
31
34
22
28
34
24
22
32
34
32
27
26

25
13
29
19
13
19
18
10
15
13
18
7
10
20

11
34
12
24
49
17
16
50
50
35
25
6
48
30

7
13
10
13
10
12
10
8
8
16
11
32
10
14

____________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 7

Have you attended any events hosted by Republican candidates this caucus season? (If yes, ask:) For how many different
candidates have you attended at least one event?
Rep CG

2
1
1
4
9
9
73
-

10 or more
8-9
6-7
4-5
2-3
One
No, have not attended any candidate events this season
Not sure

Have you signed pledge cards for any Republican candidates in this caucus season? (If yes, ask:) For how many
candidates have you signed pledge cards?
Rep CG

1
3
95
-

10 or more
8-9
6-7
4-5
2-3
One
No, have not signed any pledge cards this caucus season
Not sure

Do you consider yourself more of an establishment or anti-establishment Republican?
Rep CG

29
47
13
11

Establishment
Anti-establishment
Neither (VOL)
Not sure

Which ONE of the following factions of the Republican party describes you best as you think about which candidate to
support: (Rotate list.)
Rep CG

24
32
35
10

Tea party
Evangelical conservative
Mainstream Republican
Not sure

____________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 8

I’m going to mention some stands on issues some candidates have taken. For each, please tell me if you agree or
disagree with this position. (Rotate list.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers

Agree

Says climate change is a hoax
Wants to deport 11 million people living in the U.S. illegally
Wants to stop all U.S. resettlement of refugees from the civil war in Syria
Wants to make all abortion illegal, without exceptions for rape, incest, or to save
the life of the mother
Supports a single-payer health care plan instead of the current law
Supports a tax reform plan that cuts taxes on every American, including the very
wealthiest
Wants to send at least 20,000 troops to fight the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria
Wants to repeal financial reform laws enacted after the banking crisis in 2008
Would be willing to shoot down Russian planes if they violated a no-fly zone in
Syria
Wants to abolish the Internal Revenue Service
Compared to:
Study #2128
401 Republican likely caucusgoers
402 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error ± 4.9 percentage points for each party

Disagree

Not
Sure

57
54
67

35
37
25

7
9
9

40
49

56
35

5
16

74
61
58

21
28
20

4
11
22

44
61

41
31

15
8

October 16-19, 2015
2,771 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #2125
400 Republican likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points for Republicans
404 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error ± 4.9 percentage points for Democrats
Study #2122
401 Democratic likely caucusgoers in Iowa
Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points

August 23-26, 2015
2,975 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list
June 19-22, 2015
1,805 contacts weighted by age, sex, and congressional district
to conform to active Democratic and no-party voters
in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #2118
402 Republican likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points for Republicans
437 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.7 percentage points for Democrats

May 25-29, 2015
4,161 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #2113
402 Republican likely caucusgoers
401 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points for each party

January 26-29, 2015
3,813 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #2104
425 Republican likely caucusgoers
426 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.8 percentage points for each party

October 1-7, 2014
3,677 contacts weighted by age and sex to conform
to active voters in Iowa voter registration list

____________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 9

About the Poll
The Iowa Poll, conducted December 7-10 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co. of Des
Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 400 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend
the 2016 Republican caucuses and 404 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016
Democratic caucuses.
Interviewers contacted 2,635 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by
telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter
registration list.
Questions based on the subsamples of 404 likely Democratic caucus attendees or 400 likely Republican caucus attendees
each have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were
repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the
percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of
respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics is prohibited.

____________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 10