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# Faculty of Actuaries

Institute of Actuaries

EXAMINATION
6 April 2005 (pm)

Subject CT5
Contingencies
Core Technical
Time allowed: Three hours
INSTRUCTIONS TO THE CANDIDATE
1.

Enter all the candidate and examination details as requested on the front of your answer
booklet.

2.

You must not start writing your answers in the booklet until instructed to do so by the
supervisor.

3.

## Mark allocations are shown in brackets.

4.

Attempt all 14 questions, beginning your answer to each question on a separate sheet.

5.

## AT THE END OF THE EXAMINATION

question paper.
In addition to this paper you should have available the 2002 edition of the
Formulae and Tables and your own electronic calculator.

CT5 A2005

Faculty of Actuaries
Institute of Actuaries

[2]

(a)

## Express the expected present value of the annuity in terms of an assurance

function.

(b)

Hence calculate the value using the mortality table AM92 Ultimate with 4%
interest.
[3]

A life insurance company sells an annual premium whole life assurance policy where
the sum assured is payable at the end of the year of death. Expenses are incurred at
the start of each policy year, and claim expenses are nil.
(a)

## Write down a recursive relationship between the gross premium provisions at

successive durations, with provisions calculated on the premium basis. Define
all the symbols that you use.

(b)

## Explain in words the meaning of the relationship.

[4]

A life insurance company issues an annuity to a life aged 60 exact. The purchase
price is 200,000. The annuity is payable monthly in advance and is guaranteed to be
paid for a period of 10 years and for the whole of life thereafter.
Calculate the annual annuity payment.
Basis:
Mortality

AM92 Ultimate

Interest

6% per annum
[4]

CT5 A2005

## A three-state transition model is shown in the following diagram:

Alive

Sick

Assume that the transition probabilities are constant at all ages with
= 1% and = 5%.

= 2%, = 4%,

Calculate the present value of a sickness benefit of 2,000 p.a. paid continuously to a
life now aged 40 exact and sick, during this period of sickness, discounted at 4% p.a.
and payable to a maximum age of 60 exact.
[4]

Calculate the probability of survival to age 60 exact using ELT15 (Males) for a life
aged 45 exact using two approximate methods. State any assumptions you make.
[5]

A joint life annuity of 1 per annum is payable continuously to lives currently aged x
and y while both lives are alive. The present value of the annuity payments is
expressed as a random variable, in terms of the joint future lifetime of x and y.
Derive and simplify as far as possible expressions for the expected present value and
the variance of the present value of the annuity.
[5]

## A pension scheme provides a pension on ill-health retirement of 1/80th of Final

Pensionable Salary for each year of pensionable service subject to a minimum pension
of 20/80ths of Final Pensionable Salary. Final Pensionable Salary is defined as the
average salary earned in the three years before retirement. Normal retirement age is
65 exact.
Derive a formula for the present value of the ill-health retirement benefit for a
member currently aged 35 exact with exactly 10 years past service and salary for the
year before the calculation date of 20,000.
[5]

Explain how an insurance company uses risk classification to control the profitability
[5]

CT5 A2005

10

You are given the following statistics in respect of the population of Urbania:
Males
Age band

20
30
40
50

Females

Exposed to
risk

Observed
Mortality rate

Exposed to
risk

Observed
Mortality rate

125,000
200,000
100,000
90,000

0.00356
0.00689
0.00989
0.01233

100,000
250,000
200,000
150,000

0.00125
0.00265
0.00465
0.00685

29
39
49
59

Calculate the directly and indirectly standardised mortality rates for the female lives,
using the combined population as the standard population.
[6]

11

A life insurance company issues a 25-year with profits endowment assurance policy
to a male life aged 40 exact. The sum assured of 100,000 plus declared reversionary
bonuses are payable on survival to the end of the term or immediately on death, if
earlier.
Calculate the monthly premium payable in advance throughout the term of the policy
if the company assumes that future reversionary bonuses will be declared at a rate of
1.92308% of the sum assured, compounded and vesting at the end of each policy year.
Basis:
Interest

6% per annum

Mortality

AM92 Select

Initial commission

Initial expenses

## 175 paid at policy commencement date

Renewal commission

## 2.5% of each monthly premium from the start of the

second policy year

Renewal expenses

Claim expense

[10]

CT5 A2005

12

(i)

## By considering a term assurance policy as a series of one year deferred term

assurance policies, show that:

A1x:n =
(ii)

A1x:n

[5]

Calculate the expected present value and variance of the present value of a
term assurance of 1 payable immediately on death for a life aged 40 exact, if
death occurs within 30 years.
Basis:
Interest

4% per annum

Mortality

AM92 Select

Expenses: None
[6]
[Total 11]

CT5 A2005

13

## A life insurance company issues a 4-year unit-linked endowment assurance contract

to a male life aged 40 exact under which level premiums of 1,000 per annum are
payable in advance. In the first year, 50% of the premium is allocated to units and
102.5% in the second and subsequent years. The units are subject to a bid-offer
spread of 5% and an annual management charge of 0.5% of the bid value of the units
is deducted at the end of each year.
If the policyholder dies during the term of the policy, the death benefit of 4,000 or
the bid value of the units after the deduction of the management charge, whichever is
higher, is payable at the end of the year of death. On surrender or on survival to the
end of the term, the bid value of the units is payable at the end of the year of exit.
The company uses the following assumptions in its profit test of this contract:
Rate of growth on assets in the unit fund

6% per annum

4% per annum

AM92 Select

## 10% per annum in the first policy year;

5% per annum in the second and
subsequent policy years.

Initial expenses

commission

Renewal expenses

## 50 per annum on the second and

Initial commission

Renewal commission

## Risk discount rate

8% per annum

(i)

Calculate the profit margin on the assumption that the office does not zeroise
future negative cashflows and that decrements are uniformly distributed over
the year.
[13]

(ii)

## Suppose the office does zeroise future negative cashflows.

CT5 A2005

(a)

Calculate the expected provisions that must be set up at the end of each
year, per policy in force at the start of each year.

(b)

Calculate the profit margin allowing for the cost of setting up these
provisions.
[4]
[Total 17]

14

(i)

Write down in the form of symbols, and also explain in words, the expressions
death strain at risk , expected death strain and actual death strain .
[6]

(ii)

## A life insurance company issues the following policies:

15-year term assurances with a sum assured of 150,000 where the death
benefit is payable at the end of the year of death
15-year pure endowment assurances with a sum assured of 75,000
5-year single premium temporary immediate annuities with an annual
benefit payable in arrear of 25,000
On 1 January 2002, the company sold 5,000 term assurance policies and 2,000
pure endowment policies to male lives aged 45 exact and 1,000 temporary
immediate annuity policies to male lives aged 55 exact. For the term
assurance and pure endowment policies, premiums are payable annually in
advance. During the first two years, there were fifteen actual deaths from the
term assurance policies written and five actual deaths from each of the other
two types of policy written.
(a)

Calculate the death strain at risk for each type of policy during 2004.

(b)

During 2004, there were eight actual deaths from the term assurance
policies written and one actual death from each of the other two types
of policy written. Calculate the total mortality profit or loss to the
office in the year 2004.
Basis:
Interest

4% per annum

Mortality

## AM92 Ultimate for term assurances and pure endowments

PMA92C20 for annuities
[13]
[Total 19]

END OF PAPER

CT5 A2005

Faculty of Actuaries

Institute of Actuaries

EXAMINATION
April 2005

Subject CT5
Contingencies
Core Technical
EXAMINERS REPORT

Introduction
The attached subject report has been written by the Principal Examiner with
the aim of helping candidates. The questions and comments are based around
Core Reading as the interpretation of the syllabus to which the examiners are
working. They have however given credit for any alternative approach or
interpretation which they consider to be reasonable.

M Flaherty
Chairman of the Board of Examiners
15 June 2005

Faculty of Actuaries
Institute of Actuaries

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical)

April 2005

Examiners Report

The profit vector is the vector of expected end-year profits for policies which are still
in force at the start of each year.
The profit signature is the vector of expected end-year profits allowing for
survivorship from the start of the contract.

(a)

50:20

(b)

A50:20

1 A50:20
d
A50 v 20 20 p50 (1 A70 )

0.32907 0.45639

8054.0544
(1 0.60097)
9712.0728

0.480093

1 0.480093
13.5176
d

50:20

(a)

( tV ' OP et )(1 i )

qx t ( S )

p x t ( t 1V ' )

where
tV

'

et

## i = interest rate in premium/valuation basis

S = sum assured
p x t is the probability that a life aged x + t survives one year on the
qx t is the probability that a life aged x + t dies within one year on the

Page 2

(b)

April 2005

Examiners Report

## Income (opening provision plus interest on excess of premium over expense,

and provision) equals outgo (death claims and closing provision for survivors)
if assumptions are borne out.

(12)
10

(12)

(12)
10 | 60

1 v10

10

(12)
10 | 60
10 p60
(12)
70

(12)

1 0.55839
0.058128

@ 6%

(12)
60
(12)

60:10

8054.0544
9287.2164

7.59720

(12)
v10 10 p60 70

0.867219

7.59720 + v10

0.867219

8.682 = 11.801

Page 3

April 2005

Examiners Report

20

## The present value is

2000.e

ii
p40
dt where

ln(1.04)

0
t
ii
t p40

exp

)ds

exp( .05t )

So value is
20
t

2000 e

5%t

dt where

ln(1.04)

e t (.05 ln(1.04))
(.05 ln(1.04))

2000

20

18, 653

Require to calculate
14 p46

(a)

l60
l46

So

q45

14 p45

0.91023

(1 )q45
(1 q45 )

0.00266
(1 .00266)

x t

constant

.001332

p45
45
p45

So

Page 4

Then

(b)

86714
95266

14 p45

45

ln(1 q45 )
e

0.002664

14 p45

0.998669

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical)

April 2005

Examiners Report

Define a random variable Txy, the lifetime of the joint life status
The expected value at a rate of interest i is

axy

E (aTxy )

1 v

1 E (v

Txy

Txy

1 Axy

The variance is
Txy

1 v

var
1
2

1
2

Txy

var(v

( 2 Axy ( Axy ) 2 )

where 2 Axy is at (1 i ) 2 1

Past Service
29
i35 t v35 t z35 t
10
20000
a35
80
s34
v35
t 0 l35

or
z ia
M
10
20000 s 35
80
D35

Page 5

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical)

April 2005

Examiners Report

Future Service
z ia
M
10
20000 s 35
80
D35

z ia
R
1
20000 s 45
80
D35

9
Insurance works on the basis of pooling independent homogeneous risks
The central limit theorem then implies that profit can be defined as a random
variable having a normal distribution.
Life insurance risks are usually independent
Risk classification ensures that the risks are homogeneous
Lives are divided by risk factors
More factors implies better homogeneity
But the collection of more factors is restricted by
The cost of obtaining data
Problems with accuracy of information
The significance of the factors
The desires of the marketing department

10
Age band

20
30
40
50

29
39
49
59

Males
Exposed
to risk

125000
200000
100000
90000

Observed
Mortality
rate

0.00356
0.00689
0.00989
0.01233

Females
Exposed
to risk

100000
250000
200000
150000

Observed
Mortality
rate

0.00125
0.00265
0.00465
0.00685

Male
Actual
deaths

Female
Actual
deaths

Total
Actual
deaths

Total
Exposed
to risk

445
1378
989
1109.7
3921.7

125
662.5
930
1027.5
2745

570
2040.5
1919
2137.2
6666.7

225000
450000
300000
240000
1215000

Female
Expected
deaths using
total
mortality
rates
253.333333
1133.61111
1279.33333
1335.75
4002.02778
Direct
Indirect

Page 6

Total
Expected
deaths using
female
rates
281.25
1192.5
1395
1644
4512.75
0.003714
0.003764

11

April 2005

Examiners Report

## Let P be the monthly premium. Then:

12 Pa (12)

[40]:25

a (12)

155.124 P
11
(1
24

a[40]:25

[40]:25

13.290

11
1 (1.06)
24

25 p[40]v

25

25

8821.2612
9854.3036

12.927

EPV of benefits:
100, 000
(1.06)1/ 2 {q[40] (1 b)v
(1 b)
....

24

q[40] (1 b) 2 v 2

## q[40] (1 b)25 v 25 } 100, 000 25 p[40] (1 b) 25 v 25

where b = 0.0192308
D65
100, 000
1
(1.06)1/ 2 A[40]:25
@ i ' 100, 000
@ i'
(1 b)
D[40]
100, 000
(1.06)1/ 2 (.38896 .33579) 100, 000 .33579 38949.90
1.0192308
where i '

1.06
1 0.04
1 b

EPV of expenses:
.875 12 P 175 0.025 12 P(a (12)

[40]:25

a (12)

[40]:1

a[40]:1

11
(1
24

p[40]v ) 1

[40]:1

11
1 (1.06)
24

9846.5384
9854.3036

0.974

.025

38949.9 =973.748

Page 7

April 2005

Examiners Report

and P = 289.98

12

(i)

n 1

A1x:n

1
t |Ax:1

t 0
n 1

vt t p x A1x

t:1

t 0
1

A1x

vs s p x

t:1

x t s ds

1

A1x

v s q x t ds

t:1

qx

qx

iv
t

n 1

A1x:n

vt . t p x .qx

t 0

n 1

vt 1. t px .q x

t 0

Page 8

A1x:n

v s ds

iv
t

x t s

qx

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical)

(ii)

var( A1x:n
i

var(

A1x:n

April 2005

Examiners Report

var( A1x:n )

( 2 A1x:n

A140 :30

( A1x:n ) 2 )

v30 . 30 p 40 . A70

A 40

0.23041 v30
2 1
A 40 :30

8054.0544
0.60097 0.078970
9854.3036
v30 . 30 p 40 . 2 A70

A 40

0.06775 v30

8054.0544
0.38975 0.037469
9854.3036

where v = 1/1.0816

var( A1x:n )

0.04
ln(1.04)

Expected value =

## (0.037469 (0.078970)2 ) 0.032486

1
A[40]:30

0.04
0.078970 0.080539
ln(1.04)

13

1000.00

## Risk discount rate

8.0%

Allocation % (2nd yr +)

Interest on
investments

6.0%

Man charge

Interest on sterling
provisions

4.0%

Minimum death
benefit

Initial expense
Renewal expense

50.0%
102.50%
0.50%
5.0%

4000.00

% prm

Total

150

20.0%

350

50

2.5%

75

Page 9

(i)

April 2005

Examiners Report

x

q xd

q xs

40

0.000788

0.10

41

0.000962

0.05

42

0.001104

0.05

43

0.001208

0.05

(aq ) dx

(aq ) sx

(ap)

t 1 ( ap )

40

0.000749

0.09996

0.899291

1.000000

41

0.000938

0.04998

0.949086

0.899291

42

0.001076

0.04997

0.948951

0.853504

43

0.001178

0.04997

0.948852

0.809934

yr 1

yr 2

yr 3

yr 4

0.000

500.983

1555.400

2667.495

alloc

500.000

1025.000

1025.000

1025.000

B/O

25

51.25

51.25

51.25

28.500

88.484

151.749

218.475

2.518

7.816

13.404

19.299

500.983

1555.400

2667.495

3840.421

## Unit fund (per policy at start of year)

value of units at
start of year

interest
management
charge
value of units at
year end

Page 10

April 2005

Examiners Report

## Cash flows (per policy at start of year)

yr 1

yr 2

yr 3

yr 4

unallocated

500.000

25.000

25.000

25.000

25.000

51.250

51.250

51.250

350.000

75.000

75.000

75.000

interest

7.000

1.950

1.950

1.950

man charge

2.518

7.816

13.404

19.299

extra death
benefit

2.619

2.293

1.434

0.188

end of year
cashflow

181.898

45.177

38.730

31.589

0.899291

0.853504

0.809934

discount factor

0.925925926

0.85733882

expected p.v. of
profit

88.54607934

expenses

probability in
force

signature
expected p.v. of

1000

0.793832241 0.735029853

832.67667

731.74245

642.95174

3207.370861

profit
margin

2.76%

(ii)
(a)
To calculate the expected provisions at the end of each year we have (utilising the end of year
cashflow figures and decrement tables in (i) above):
31.589
30.374
1.04
2V (1.04) ( ap ) 42 3V

38.73

1V

45.177

3V

(1.04) (ap ) 41

2V

2V
1V

64.9552
102.7164

Page 11

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical)

April 2005

Examiners Report

These need to be adjusted as the question asks for the values in respect of the beginning of
the year. Thus we have:
Year 3
Year 2
Year 1

30.374(ap)42 = 28.823
64.9552(ap)41 = 61.648
102.7164(ap)40 = 92.372

(b)
Based on the expected provisions calculated in (a) above, the cash flow for years 2, 3 and 4
will be zeroised whilst year 1 will become:
181.898

92.372 = 89.526

Hence the table blow can now be completed for the revised profit margin.
revised end of
year cash flow

89.526

0.899291

0.853504

0.809934

discount factor

0.925925926

0.85733882

0.793832241

0.735029853

expected p.v. of
profit

82.89461768

probability in
force

profit margin

14

(i)

2.58%

The death strain at risk for a policy for year t + 1 (t = 0, 1, 2 ) is the excess of
the sum assured (i.e. the present value at time t + 1 of all benefits payable on
death during the year t + 1) over the end of year provision.
i.e. DSAR for year t + 1 S

t 1V

The expected death strain for year t + 1 (t = 0, 1, 2 ) is the amount that the
life insurance company expects to pay extra to the end of year provision for
the policy.
i.e. EDS for year t + 1 q ( S

t 1V )

## The actual death strain for year t + 1 (t = 0, 1, 2 ) is the observed value at

t+1 of the death strain random variable
i.e. ADS for year t + 1 ( S t 1V ) if the life died in the year t to
t + 1 = 0 if the life survived to t + 1

Page 12

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical)

(ii)

April 2005

Examiners Report

Annual premium for pure endowment with 75,000 sum assured given by:
P PE

a45:15 D45

## 75, 000 882.85

11.386 1677.97

3465.71

Annual premium for term assurance with 150,000 sum assured given by:
PTA

P EA 2 P PE

a45:15

2 P PE

2 3465.71 473.20
11.386

## Provisions at the end of the third year:

for pure endowment with 75,000 sum assured given by:
3V

PE

D60
D48

75, 000

75, 000

P PE a48:12

882.85
3465.71 9.613 11289.63
1484.43

3V

TA

3V

EA

3V

## 150, 000 A48:12

PE

(2 3465.71 473.20)a48:12

2 11289.63

## 150, 000 0.63025 7, 404.62 9.613 22,579.26

777.63
for temporary immediate annuity paying an annual benefit of 25,000 given
by:
3V

IA

25, 000a58:2

25, 000(a58:3

1)

## 25, 000(a58 v3 3 p58 a61 1)

25, 000 16.356 (1.04)

9802.048
15.254 1
9864.803

47, 037.91

Page 13

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical)

April 2005

Examiners Report

Sums at risk:
Pure endowment:

DSAR = 0

Term assurance:

DSAR = 150,000

Immediate annuity:

## Mortality profit = EDS

11,289.63 = 11,289.63
777.63 = 149,222.37

EDS

## mortality profit = 146,681.11

For pure endowment
EDS 1995 q47

11, 289.63

11, 289.63

40,586.11

11, 289.63

## mortality profit = 29,296.48

For immediate annuity
EDS

995 q57

72, 037.91

72, 037.91

72, 037.91

## mortality profit = 39,635.98

Hence, total mortality profit = 77,748.65

## END OF EXAMINERS REPORT

Page 14

111, 673.89

Faculty of Actuaries

Institute of Actuaries

EXAMINATION
7 September 2005 (pm)

Subject CT5
Contingencies
Core Technical
Time allowed: Three hours
INSTRUCTIONS TO THE CANDIDATE
1.

Enter all the candidate and examination details as requested on the front of your answer
booklet.

2.

You must not start writing your answers in the booklet until instructed to do so by the
supervisor.

3.

## Mark allocations are shown in brackets.

4.

Attempt all 13 questions, beginning your answer to each question on a separate sheet.

5.

## AT THE END OF THE EXAMINATION

question paper.
In addition to this paper you should have available the 2002 edition of the
Formulae and Tables and your own electronic calculator.

CT5 S2005

Faculty of Actuaries
Institute of Actuaries

## Describe what is meant by adverse selection in the context of a life insurance

company s underwriting process and give an example.

[2]

## Describe how occupation affects morbidity and mortality.

[3]

A graph of f0(t), the probability density function for the random future lifetime, T0, is
plotted on the vertical axis, with t plotted on the horizontal axis, for data taken from
the English Life Table No. 15 (Males).
You are given that f0(t) = t p0
t 80 and then falls.

t.

## Explain why the graph falls at around t

80 .

Calculate the value of 1.75 p45.5 on the basis of mortality of AM92 Ultimate and
assuming that deaths are uniformly distributed between integral ages.

[3]

[3]

## A population is subject to a constant force of mortality of 0.015.

Calculate:
(a)
(b)

The probability that a life aged 20 exact will die before age 21.25 exact.
The curtate expectation of a life aged 20 exact.
[4]

Define (12)

60:50:20

## PFA92C20 tables for the two lives respectively at 4% interest.

CT5 S2005

[5]

A life insurance company prices its long-term sickness policies using the following
three-state continuous-time Markov model, in which the forces of transition , ,
and are assumed to be constant:

Healthy

Sick

The company issues a particular long-term sickness policy with a benefit of 10,000
per annum payable continuously while sick, provided that the life has been sick
continuously for at least one year. Benefit payments under this policy cease at age 65
exact.
Write down an expression for the expected present value of the sickness benefit for a
healthy life aged 20 exact. Define the symbols that you use.
[5]

A life insurance company issues an annuity contract to a man aged 65 exact and his
wife aged 62 exact. Under the contract, an annuity of 20,000 per annum is
guaranteed payable for a period of 5 years and thereafter during the lifetime of the
man. On the man s death, an annuity of 10,000 per annum is payable to his wife, if
she is then alive. This annuity commences on the monthly payment date next
following, or coincident with, the date of his death or from the 5th policy anniversary,
if later and is payable for the lifetime of his wife. Annuities are payable monthly in
Calculate the single premium required for the contract.
Basis:
Mortality
Interest
Expenses

CT5 S2005

## PMA92C20 for the male and PFA92C20 for the female

4% per annum
none

[9]

A life insurance company issues an annuity policy to two lives each aged 60 exact in
return for a single premium. Under the policy, an annuity of 10,000 per annum is
payable annually in advance while at least one of the lives is alive.
(i)

Write down an expression for the net future loss random variable at the outset
for this policy.
[2]

(ii)

## Calculate the single premium, using the equivalence principle.

Basis:
Mortality
Interest
Expenses

(iii)

PMA92C20 for the first life, PFA92C20 for the second life
4% per annum
ignored

[3]

Calculate the standard deviation of the net future loss random variable at the
outset for this policy, using the basis in part (ii).
You are given that a60:60 = 11.957 at a rate of interest 8.16% per annum.

[4]

[Total 9]

CT5 S2005

10

A life insurance company issued a with profits whole life policy to a life aged 20
exact, on 1 July 2002. Under the policy, the basic sum assured of 100,000 and
attaching bonuses are payable immediately on death. The company declares simple
reversionary bonuses at the start of each year. Level premiums are payable annually
(i)

Give an expression for the gross future loss random variable under the policy
at the outset. Define symbols where necessary.
[3]

(ii)

Basis:
Mortality

AM92 Select

Interest

6% per annum

Expenses

Initial

200

Renewal

subsequent years

## Assume bonus entitlement earned immediately on payment of premium.

[4]
(iii)

On 30 June 2005 the policy is still in force. A total of 10,000 has been
declared as a simple bonus to date on the policy.
The company calculates provisions for the policy using a gross premium
prospective basis, with the following assumptions:
Mortality
Interest
Renewal expenses

AM92 Ultimate
4%
4% per annum simple

CT5 S2005

[4]
[Total 11]

11

## A life insurance company issues a three-year unit-linked endowment assurance

contract to a male life aged 62 exact under which level annual premiums of 10,000
are payable in advance throughout the term of the policy or until earlier death. 85% of
each year s premium is invested in units at the offer price.
There is a bid-offer spread in unit values, with the bid price being 95% of the offer
price.
There is an annual management charge of 1.25% of the bid value of units.
Management charges are deducted at the end of each year, before death or maturity
benefits are paid.
On the death of the policyholder during the term of the policy, there is a benefit
payable at the end of the year of death of 20,000, or the bid value of the units
allocated to the policy, if greater. On maturity, 115% of the full bid value of the units
is payable.
The company holds unit provisions equal to the full bid value of the units. It sets up
non-unit provisions to zeroise any negative non-unit fund cashflows, other than those
occurring in the first year.
The life insurance company uses the following assumptions in carrying out profit tests
of this contract:
Mortality
Expenses

AM92 Ultimate
Initial
Renewal

600
100 at the start of each of the second and third policy years

8% per annum

Non-unit fund
interest rate

4% per annum

Non-unit fund
provision basis

## Calculate the profit margin on the contract.

CT5 S2005

[14]

12

On 1 January 2000, a life insurance company issued joint life whole life assurance
policies to couples. Each couple comprised one male and one female life and both
were aged 50 exact on 1 January 2000. Under each policy, a sum assured of 200,000
is payable immediately on the death of the second of the lives to die.
Premiums under each policy are payable annually in advance while at least one of the
lives is alive.
(i)

Basis:
Mortality

## PMA92C20 for the male

PFA92C20 for the female

Interest

4% per annum

Expenses

Initial
Renewal

1,000
[5]

(ii)

On I January 2004, 5,000 of these policies were still in force. Under 100 of
these policies only the female life was alive. Both lives were alive under the
other 4,900 policies.
The company calculates provisions for the policies on a net premium basis,
using PMA92C20 and PFA92C20 mortality for the male and female lives
respectively and 4% per annum interest.
During the calendar year 2004, there was one claim for death benefit, in
respect of a policy where the female life only was alive at the start of the year.
In addition, one male life died during the year under a policy where both lives
were alive at the start of the year. 4,999 of the policies were in force at the
end of the year.
Calculate the mortality profit or loss for the group of 5,000 policies for the
calendar year 2004.
[9]
[Total 14]

CT5 S2005

13

Under the rules of a pension scheme, a member may retire due to age at any age from
exact age 60 to exact age 65.
On age retirement, the scheme provides a pension of 1/60th of Final Pensionable
Salary for each year of scheme service, subject to a maximum of 40/60ths of Final
Pensionable Salary. Only complete years of service are taken into account.
Final Pensionable Salary is defined as the average salary over the three-year period
before the date of retirement.
The pension scheme also provides a lump sum benefit of four times Pensionable
Salary on death before retirement. The benefit is payable immediately on death and
Pensionable Salary is defined as the annual rate of salary at the date of death.
You are given the following data in respect of a member:
Date of birth
Date of joining the scheme
Annual rate of salary at 1 January 2005
Date of last salary increase

1 January 1979
1 January 2000
50,000
1 April 2004

(i)

Derive commutation functions to value the past service and future service
pension liability on age retirement for this member as at 1 January 2005. State
any assumptions that you make and define all the symbols that you use.
[12]

(ii)

Derive commutation functions to value the liability in respect of the lump sum
payable on death before retirement for this member as at 1 January 2005.
State any assumptions that you make and define all the symbols that you use.
[6]
[Total 18]

END OF PAPER

CT5 S2005

Faculty of Actuaries

Institute of Actuaries

EXAMINATION
September 2005

## Subject CT5 Contingencies

Core Technical
EXAMINERS REPORT

Faculty of Actuaries
Institute of Actuaries

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical)

September 2005

Examiners Report

In general, this examination was done well by students who were well prepared.
Several questions gave difficulties particularly Question 7 and 12(ii) the latter one
being very challenging. To help students comments are attached to those questions
where particular points are of relevance. Absence of comments can be indicate that
the particular question was generally done well.

Adverse selection is the manner in which lives form part of a group, which acts
against a controlled process of selecting the lives with respect to some characteristic
that affects mortality or morbidity.
An example is where a life insurance company does not distinguish between smokers
and non-smokers in proposals for term assurance cover. A greater proportion of
smokers are likely to select this company in preference to a company that charges
different rates to smokers and non-smokers. This would be adverse to the company s
selection process, if the company had assumed that its proportion of smokers was
similar to that in the general population.
Other examples were credited.

Occupation can have several direct effects on mortality and morbidity. Occupation
determines a person s environment for 40 or more hours each week. The environment
may be rural or urban, the occupation may involve exposure to harmful substances
e.g. chemicals, or to potentially dangerous situations e.g. working at heights. Much of
this is moderated by health and safety at work regulations.
Some occupations are more healthy by their very nature e.g. bus drivers have a
sedentary and stressful occupation while bus conductors are more active and less
stressed. Some work environments e.g. pubs, give exposure to a less healthy lifestyle.
Some occupations by their very nature attract more healthy workers. This may be
accentuated by health checks made on appointment or by the need to pass regular
health checks e.g. airline pilots. Some occupations can attract less healthy workers,
for example, former miners who have left the mining industry as a result of ill health
and then chosen to sell newspapers. This will inflate the mortality rates of newspaper
sellers.
A person s occupation largely determines their income, which permits them to adopt a
particular lifestyle e.g. content and pattern of diet, quality of housing. This effect can
be positive or negative e.g. over-indulgence.
Other appropriate examples were credited.

As t increases,

## in t p0 is greater than the increase in

, hence f 0 t

p0

decreases.

A deceptively straightforward answer which many students struggled to find. The key
point is to compare the 2 parameters as shown.

Page 2

1.75 p45.5

September 2005

Examiners Report

## 0.5 p45.5 * p46 * 0.25 p47

1 q45
*(1 q46 ) *(1 0.25q47 )
1 0.5q45

1 0.001465
*(1 0.001622) *(1 0.25*0.001802)
1 0.5*0.001465
0.999267 *0.998378*0.99955 0.997197

(a)

1.25
0.015dt
0

1 e

(b)

(12)

0.01875

0.018575

## The curtate expectation is

p20

k 1

1 e

60:50:20

e
k 1

k
0.015dt
0

0.015k

k 1

0.015

1 e

0.015

66.168.

is the present value of 1 p.a. payable monthly in advance while two lives

aged 60 and 50 are both still alive, for a maximum period of 20 years.

(12)

60:50:20

(12)
(12)
60:50
v 20 20 p60:50 80:70

(a60:50 11

) v 20 20 p60:50 (a80:70 11 )
24
24

(15.161 0.458) v 20

6953.536 9392.621
(6.876 0.458) 12.747
9826.131 9952.697

Page 3

where
t

hh
p20
*

20 t

ss
* 1 p20
t*

44 t
0

t u 1
u

ss
p21
t du dt

ss
1 p20 t

ss
p21

0 t

Examiners Report

## is the force of interest

hh
p20

45

September 2005

is the probability that a life who is sick at age 20 t is sick continuously for
one year thereafter
is the probability that a life who is sick at age 21 t is still sick at
age 21 t u

This question was not done well and few students obtained the whole result. Partial
credits were given for correct portions. There were other potentially correct
approaches which were credited provided proper definitions of symbols given.

12
5

12
5

4.5477

D70
D65

v5

12

a70

l70
l65
12

9238.134
9647.797

D70 12
a
D65 70

0.957538

D67
D62

v5

12

l70 D67 12
a
l65 D62 67

0.787027

a67

a70|67

10, 000 1

9605.483
9804.173
12

a67

12)

a70:67

0.80527

Page 4

l70 D67 12
a
l65 D62 70|67

(i)

September 2005

Examiners Report

10, 000a

A
B
max K 60
1, K 60
1|

(ii)

A
B
A
B
P 10, 000 a60
a60
a60
* a60

## 10, 000* 15.632 16.652 14.09

Variance =

108

d2

181,940
2

60 :60

108
0.038462

60 :60

* 1 0.075444*11.957

1 0.038462*18.194

10

(i)

100, 000 1 bK 20

vT20

I eaK

20

fvT20

GaK

20

## where b is the annual rate of bonus

I is the initial expense
e is the annual renewal expense and
f is the claim expense
G is the gross annual premium
(ii)

Ga 20

100,000 A 20

3,000 IA

20

200 0.05Ga 20

## G * 16.877 100,000 * 1.06 0.5 * 0.04472 3,000 * 1.06 0.5 * 2.00874

200 0.05G *(16.877 1) 1] 16.083G 4604.206 6204.373 200
G

684.49

Page 5

(iii)

September 2005

Examiners Report

## The required provision is

110,000 A23

4,000 IA

23

0.95 * 684.48 * a 23

## 110,000 * 1.04 0.5 * 0.12469 4,000 * 1.04 0.5 * 6.09644

0.95 * 684.49 * 22.758

## 13,987.528 24,868.693 14, 798.742

24, 057.48

11

Unit fund
Year
Fund at the start of the year
Allocation to units
Interest
Management charge
Fund at the end of the year

0
10000
8075
646
109.0123
8611.988

8611.988
10000
8075
1334.959
225.274
17796.67

3
17796.67
10000
8075
2069.734
349.268
27592.14

## Non-unit fund before provisions

Year
Expenses
Interest
Death cost
Maturity cost
Management charge
Profit

1925
600
53
115.156
0
109.013
1371.857

1925
100
73
24.995
0
225.274
2098.28

1925
100
73
0
4138.821
349.268
1891.55

## Provision required at the start of year 3 = (1891.55

= 1768.192
Reduced profit at the end of year 2 = 2098.28

Page 6

4138.821 (1

p64)) / 1.04

1768.192*p63 = 350.146

September 2005

Examiners Report

p62
2 p62

0.989888
0.978659

1371.857
1.15

350.146* p62

p62 2 p62
1.15 1.152

## Present value of premiums = 10000* 1

1455.003
26007.788

Profit margin =

1455.003

1.152

26007.788

5.59%

Most students completed the tables satisfactorily in this question but struggled to get
the revised profit vectors. Very few produced a complete result.

12

(i)

0.95* P * a

1000 200000* A

50m :50 f

50m :50 f

50m :50 f

a50m

50m :50 f

a50 f

a50m:50 f

1.040.5 * A

## 18.843 19.539 17.688 20.694

1.040.5 *(1 d * a

50m :50 f

50m :50 f

## 1.040.5 *(1 0.038462* 20.694) 0.208109

0.95* P * 20.694 1000 200000*0.208109

P
(ii)

2,168.02 .

## From part (i) the net premium is:

200000 * (1.04)0.5 *

1
a

50 :50

= 200000 * (1.04)0.5 *

at 4%

1
20.694

.04
1.04

= 2011.39
We require 3 provisions at end of 5th policy year
Page 7

September 2005

Examiners Report

## Both lives alive

55m :55 f

200000 * (1.04)0.5 * 1

50m :50 f

= 200000 * (1.04)0.5 1

## 17.364 18.210 16.016

18.843 19.539 17.688

= 11196.46
Male only alive

200000 A55m
= 200000 * (1.04)0.5 * 1

2011.39 a55m

.04
*17.364
1.04

2011.39 *17.364

.04
*18.210
1.04

2011.39 *18.210

= 32820.60
Female only alive
200000 A55 f

2011.39 a55 f

= 200000 * (1.04)0.5 * 1
= 24482.39
Mortality Profit Loss
= Expected Death Strain

## In this case there are 4 components:

(a) Both lives die during 2004

no actual claims

Result
= (4900 * q54m * q54 f

## = (4900 * 0.000986 * 0.000912) (192764.32)

= 849.37
(b) Female alive at begin 2004, death during 2004
Result
= (100 * q54 f
Page 8

1) (200000 *1.040.5

24482.39)

1 actual claim

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical)

= (100 * 0.000912
=

September 2005

Examiners Report

1) (179478.39)

163109.96

(c) Both lives alive beginning 2004, males only die during 2004 -1 actual claim. Here
the claim cost is the change in provision from joint lives to female only
surviving i.e.
Result = (4900 * q54m * q54 f

1) (24482.39 11196.46)

## = (4900 * 0.000986 * 0.999088

1) (13285.93)

= 50845.17
(d) Both lives alive beginning 2004, females only die during 2004 no actual claims.
Claim cost change in provision from joint lives to male only surviving
Result = (4900 * p54m * q54 f

0) (32820.611 11196.46)

## = (4900 * 0.999014 * 0.000912) (21624.14)

= 96538.66
Hence overall total = 849.37 163109.16 + 50845.17 + 96538.66
=

14876.77

## i.e. a mortality loss of 14877 when rounded.

For part (i) assuming renewal expenses did not include the first premium (answer
2162.62) was also fully acceptable.
Part (ii) was very challenging and very few students realised the extension of
mortality profit/loss extended to joint life contracts involved reserve change costs on
first death. Most just considered the first 2 components of the answer and in many
cases failed to correctly cost this part. A few exceptional students did manage to
reach the final result.

13

(i)

## Define a service table:

l26 t = no. of members aged 26 + t last birthday
r26 t = no. of members who retire age 26 + t last birthday

## sx t / sx = ratio of earnings in the year of age x + t to x + t + 1 to the earnings

in the year of age x to x + 1

Page 9

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical)

1
s26 t 3 s26 t
3
to a retiree aged exactly 26 + t.
Define z26

September 2005

s26

r
; a26

t 1

Examiners Report

## = value of annuity of 1 p.a.

Past service:
Assume that retirements take place uniformly over the year of age between 60
and 65. Retirement for those who attain age 65 takes place at exact age 65.
Consider retirement between ages 26 + t and 26 + t + 1, 34 t

38 .

## The present value of the retirement benefits related to past service:

26 t 1 2
r26 t r
50000*5 z26 t 12 v
a
26
60
s25.25
l26 26
v
ra
where zC26

and

D26

z26

26 t

r
r26 t a26

ra
50000*5 zC26
t
s
60
D26

s25.25v 26l26

For retirement at age 65, the present value of the benefits is:
50000*5 z65 v65 r65 r
a65
60
s25.25 v 26 l26
ra
where zC65

ra
50000*5 zC65
s
60
D26

r
z65v65r65 a65

## Summing over all ages, the value is:

ra
50000*5 z M 60
s
60
D26

ra
where z M 60

39

ra
C26

t 34

Future service:
Assume that retirements take place uniformly over the year of age, between
ages 60 and 65. Retirement at 65 takes place at exactly age 65.
If retirement takes place between ages 60 and 61, the number of future years
service to count is 34. If retirement takes place at age 61 or after, the number
of future years service to count is 35.
For retirement between ages 60 and 61, the present value of the retirement
benefits is:
Page 10

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical)

September 2005

60 1 2
r60 i
34*50000 z60 1 2 v
a
26
60
s25.25 v
l26 60

Examiners Report

ra
34*50000 zC60
s
60
D26

For retirement at later years, the formula is similar to the above, with 35 in
place of 34.
50000

ra
ra
34 z C60
35( z C61
...

60 D26

where

50000

60 D26

ra
M 60

ra
C65
)

ra
M 60

ra
35* zC60

z
t

ra
C60

t 0

(ii)

## Define a service table, with l26 t and s x t / s x defined as in part (i). In

addition, define d 26 t as the number of members dying age 26 t last
birthday.
Assume that deaths take place on average in the middle of the year of age.
The present value of the death benefit, for death between ages 26 t and
26 t 1 , is
26 t

s
v
50000* 4* 26.25 t
s25.25
v 26
d
where sC26

s26.25 t v

26 t

d 26

d 26 t
l26

50000* 4*

d
C26
s

D26

Adding the present value of benefits for all possible years of death gives
38 s

50000* 4*

s
t 0

d
where s M 26

38

d
C26

d
C26

D26

s
t

200000*

d
M 26

D26

t 0

Examiners felt that this question was quite simple provided students
constructed proper definitions and followed them through logically allowing
of course for the adjusted salary scale. The above answer is one of a number
possible and full credit was given for credible alternatives.
Page 11

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical)

September 2005

Examiners Report

Many students, however struggled with this question despite these remarks.

## END OF EXAMINERS REPORT

Page 12

Faculty of Actuaries

Institute of Actuaries

EXAMINATION
5 April 2006 (pm)

## Subject CT5 Contingencies

Core Technical
Time allowed: Three hours
INSTRUCTIONS TO THE CANDIDATE
1.

Enter all the candidate and examination details as requested on the front of your answer
booklet.

2.

You must not start writing your answers in the booklet until instructed to do so by the
supervisor.

3.

## Mark allocations are shown in brackets.

4.

Attempt all 14 questions, beginning your answer to each question on a separate sheet.

5.

## AT THE END OF THE EXAMINATION

question paper.
In addition to this paper you should have available the 2002 edition of the
Formulae and Tables and your own electronic calculator.

CT5 A2006

Faculty of Actuaries
Institute of Actuaries

## It is possible to model the mortality of current active members of a pension scheme

using the following three-state continuous-time Markov model, with age-dependent
forces of transition x, x and x:
x

Active

Retired

## A pension scheme provides a benefit of 10,000 payable on death regardless of

whether death occurs before or after retirement. Give an expression to value this
benefit for an active life currently aged x.
[2]

(i)

## In the context of with-profit policies, describe the super compound method of

[2]

(ii)

Suggest a reason why a life insurance company might use the super compound
method of adding bonuses as opposed to the compound method.
[1]
[Total 3]

## Using the PMA92C20 table for both lives calculate:

(a)

65:60

(b)

5 p65:60

(c)

1
2 q65:65

[4]

State the main difference between an overhead expense and a direct expense incurred
in writing a life insurance policy and give an example of each.
[4]

CT5 A2006 2

A life office issues term assurance policies to 500 lives all aged 30 exact with a term
of 25 years. The benefit of 10,000 is payable at the end of the year of death of any
of the lives into a special fund. Calculate the expected share of this fund for each
survivor after 25 years.
Basis:
Mortality
Interest

AM92 Select
4% per annum
[4]

A life office has issued for a number of years whole-life regular premium policies to a
group of lives through direct advertising. Assured lives are only required to complete
an application form with no further evidence of health. Outline the forms of selection
that the insurer should expect to find in the mortality experience of the lives.
[5]

(i)

Show that:

t
(ii)

px

px t (

x t

x t s)

[2]

## Prove Thiele s differential equation for a whole-life assurance issued to a life

aged x to be as follows:

tV x

(1

tV x ) x t

tV x

[4]

Px

[Total 6]

(i)

## Calculate the expected present value of an annuity-due of 1 per annum payable

annually in advance until the death of the last survivor of two lives using the
following basis:
First life:
male aged 70, mortality table PMA92C20
Second life:
female aged 67, mortality table PFA92C20
Rate of interest: 4% per annum
[2]

(ii)

functions.
[5]
[Total 7]

CT5 A2006 3

(i)

## Express fully in words:

axy:n
(ii)

[3]

Express a xy:n as the expected value of random variables and hence show that

a xy:n

1 Axy:n

[4]
[Total 7]

10

## A 20-year special endowment assurance policy is issued to a group of lives aged 45

exact. Each policy provides a sum assured of 10,000 payable at the end of the year of
death or 20,000 payable if the life survives until the maturity date. Premiums on the
policy are payable annually in advance for 15 years or until earlier death.
You are given the following information:
Number of deaths during the 13th policy year
Number of policies in force at the end of the 13th policy year

4
195

(i)

Calculate the profit or loss arising from mortality in the 13th policy year.

[7]

(ii)

[2]

Basis:
Mortality
Interest
Expenses

AM92 Ultimate
4% per annum
none
[Total 9]

11

## An employer wishes to introduce a lump-sum retirement benefit payable immediately

on retirement at 65 or earlier other than on the grounds of ill-health. The amount of
the benefit is 1,000 for each year of an employee s service, with proportionate parts
of a year counting.
(i)

Give a formula to value this benefit for an employee currently aged x with n
years of past service, defining all terms used.
[5]

(ii)

Using the Pension Scheme Tables from the Actuarial Formulae and Tables,
calculate the value for an employee currently aged 30 exact with exactly 10
years past service.
[2]

(iii)

## Calculate the level annual contribution payable continuously throughout this

employee s service to fund the future retirement benefit.
[3]
[Total 10]

CT5 A2006 4

12

(i)

(a)
(b)
(c)

## Crude Mortality Rate

Directly Standardised Mortality Rate
Indirectly Standardised Mortality Rate
[3]

(ii)

The data in the following table are taken from data published by the Office of
National Statistics in 2001.
England and Wales

## Tyne and Wear

Population

Number of
births

Population

Number of
births

Under 25

3,149,000

153,000

71,000

4,000

25 35

3,769,000

339,000

74,000

6,000

35+

3,927,000

103,000

82,000

1,000

(a)

Using the population for England and Wales as the standard population
calculate crude birth rates and the directly and indirectly standardised
birth rates for Tyne and Wear.

(b)

## State an advantage of using the Indirectly Standardised Birth Rate and

comment briefly on the answers you have obtained.
[8]
[Total 11]

CT5 A2006 5

13

## A life aged 35 exact purchases a 30-year with-profit endowment assurance policy.

Level premiums are payable monthly in advance throughout the duration of the
contract. The sum assured of 250,000 plus declared reversionary bonuses are
payable at maturity or at the end of the year of death if earlier.
(i)

Show that the monthly premium is 647.47 if the life insurance company
assumes that future simple reversionary bonuses will be declared at the rate of
2% per annum and vesting at the end of each policy year (i.e. the death benefit
does not include any bonus relating to the policy year of death).
Basis:
mortality
interest
initial expenses
renewal expenses
claims expenses

AM92 Select
4% per annum
250 plus 50% of the gross annual premium
3% of the second and subsequent monthly premiums
300 on death; 150 on maturity
[7]

(ii)

At age 60 exact, immediately before the premium then due, the life wishes to
surrender the policy. The life insurance company calculates a surrender value
equal to the gross retrospective policy value, assuming the same basis as in (i)
above.
Calculate the surrender value using the retrospective policy value at the end of
the 25th policy year immediately before the premium then due and just after
the declared bonus has increased the sum assured plus reversionary bonuses to
375,000. Assume that the life insurance company has declared a simple
bonus throughout the duration of the policy consistent with the bonus loading
assumption used to derive the premium in (i) above.
[6]

(iii)

State with a reason whether the surrender value would have been larger, the
same or smaller than in (ii) above if the office had used the prospective gross
premium policy value, on the same basis.
[1]
[Total 14]

CT5 A2006 6

14

A life insurance company issues a 3-year unit linked endowment policy to a life aged
45 exact under which level premiums are payable yearly in advance. In the 1st year,
35% of the premium is allocated to units and 105% in the 2nd and 3rd years. The
units are subject to a bid-offer spread of 5% and an annual management charge of
0.5% of the bid value of units is deducted at the end of each policy year.
Management charges are deducted from the unit fund before death and surrender
benefits are paid.
If the policyholder dies during the term of the policy, the death benefit of the bid
value of the units is payable at the end of the year of death. The policyholder may
surrender the policy only at the end of each year. On surrender or on survival to the
end of the term, the bid value of the units is payable at the end of the year of exit.
The company uses the following assumptions in its profit test of this contract:
Rate of growth on assets in the unit fund
Rate of interest on non-unit fund cash flows
Independent rates of mortality
Independent rates of withdrawal
Initial expenses
Renewal expenses
Initial commission
Renewal commission

5% per annum
4% per annum
AM92 Ultimate
5% per annum
250
50 per annum on the 2nd and 3rd
2.5% of the 2nd and 3rd years

The company sets premiums so that the net present value of the profit on the policy is
(i)

Using a risk discount rate of 8% per annum, calculate the premium for the
policy on the assumption that the company does not zeroise future expected
negative cash flows.
[12]

(ii)

Explain why the company might need to zeroise future expected negative
cash flows on the policy.
[2]
[Total 14]

END OF PAPER

CT5 A2006 7

Faculty of Actuaries

Institute of Actuaries

EXAMINATION
April 2006

Subject CT5
Contingencies
Core Technical
Introduction
The attached subject report has been written by the Principal Examiner with the aim of
helping candidates. The questions and comments are based around Core Reading as the
interpretation of the syllabus to which the examiners are working. They have however given
credit for any alternative approach or interpretation which they consider to be reasonable.

M Flaherty
Chairman of the Board of Examiners
June 2006

Faculty of Actuaries
Institute of Actuaries

10, 000 e

( t p xaa

x t

pxar

April 2006

Examiners Report

x t ) dt

(i)

## The super compound bonus method is a method of allocating bonuses (mostly

these days on an annual basis) under which two bonus rates are declared each
year. The first rate, usually the lower, is applied to the basic sum assured and
the second rate is applied to the bonuses already declared.

(ii)

The sum assured and bonuses increase more slowly than under other methods
for the same ultimate benefit, enabling the office to retain surplus for longer
and thereby providing greater investment freedom.

(a)

65:60

(b)

5 p65:60

l70 l65
.
l65 l60

(c)

1
2 q65:65

. 2 q65:65

(1

2 p65 . 2 p65 )

65

60

## 0.005543 0.002266 0.007809

9238.134 9647.797
.
9647.797 9826.131
.(1

0.940160

2 p65:65 )

9521.065 9521.065
.
9647.797 9647.797

0.013050

Overhead expenses are those that in the short term do not vary with the amount of
An example of an overhead expense is the cost of the company s premises (as the sale
of an extra policy now will have no impact on these costs).
Direct expenses are those that do vary with the amount of business.
An example of a direct expense is commission payment to a direct salesman (as the
sale of an extra policy now will have an impact on these costs).

Page 2

April 2006

Examiners Report

## The expected share of the fund is

1
10, 000(1.04) 25 . A[30]:25

. 25 p[30]
10, 000(1.0425 ( A[30] v 25 . 25 p[30] . A55 ))
25 p[30]

10, 000

9923.7497

x0.38950)

9557.8179
9923.7497

536.65

## The insurer should expect to find:

Time selection
the experience would be different in different time periods; in
developed economies mortality has tended to improve with time.
Class selection
The insurer may price policies differently depending on fixed
factors such as age/sex. Also different groups of recipients may have different
mortality based on factors such as occupation.
Temporary Initial Selection
if there is no evidence of health required then there is
an expectation that poor lives would be likely to take out the insurance and in the
short term the experience would be adverse. This effect should reduce with duration.
Conversely, if there are medical questions on the application form then we would
expect to see some form of self selection and mortality experience would be better in
the short term.
This is also evidence of adverse selection as highlighted above.
Spurious selection
If there is no evidence of health required then the duration
effect would be confounded by the differential mortality experience of withdrawals,
as those lives withdrawing would be expected to have lighter mortality.

Page 3

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical)

(i)

1
s px

px

x t s

ln( s px t )

(ln l x

Examiners Report

ln l x t )

t s

x t

Multiplying through by s px
(ii)

April 2006

Now
t Vx

Ax

ax

Px ax

ax t
ax

p x t ds

px t (

x t s )ds

x t

p x t ds

x t ax t

Ax

x t (1

t Vx )

t Vx

x t (1

Page 4

x t ax t

Ax t )

ax
t Vx )

(1

t Vx ) x t

t Vx

(1

t Vx ) x t

t Vx

ax t
ax

1
ax

ax
ax

Px

(1

ax t )
ax

(i)

April 2006

Examiners Report

## Expected present value:

70:67

70 67 70:67
11.562 14.111 10.233

15.440

(ii)

Variance:
1
d

Axy ( Axy ) 2

(1 (1 v 2 ). 2xy ) (1 d .xy ) 2

where normal functions are at a rate of interest i and functions with a left
superscript are at a rate of interest i2+2i.
The expression (1-v2) in the right hand side of the above equation can also be
expressed as 2d.

(i)

## The expected present value

of 1 per annum
payable continuously
until the second death
of 2 lives
currently age x and y
for a maximum n years

(ii)

a xy:n

E (amin(max(T

x ,Ty ),n )

Tx and Ty are random variables which measures the complete lifetime of two
lives aged x and y

E (amin(max(T

x ,Ty ), n )

1 E (v

1 v

1 Axy:n

Page 5

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical)

10

(i)

April 2006

Examiners Report

Let P be the net premium for the policy payable annually in advance. Then,
equation of value becomes:
Pa45:15

v 20 20 p45 )

P

773.52

13V

## 10, 000( A58:7

v 7 7 p58 ) Pa58:2

## 10, 000(0.76516 0.71209) 773.52 1.955

14, 772.48 1,512.23 13, 260.25
Death strain at risk per policy = 10,000

13,260.25 = 3,260.25

13, 041.00

3, 260.25

3, 665.66

## mortality profit = 3,665.66 + 13,041.00 = 9,375.34

(ii)

The death strain at risk is negative. Hence, the life insurance company makes
money on early deaths.
More people die than expected during the year considered so the company
makes a mortality profit.

11

(i)

Mr
1, 000.n. x
Dx

v xlx

Where Dx
C xr

vx

r
C65

M xr

Rx
1, 000.
Dx

rx for x < 65

65

v r65
65 x

C xr

t 0
r

Mx

Page 6

M xr C xr for x < 65

64 x

Rx

April 2006

Examiners Report

Mx

t 0

782
25,502
1000.
7,874
7,874

(ii)

1, 000.10.

(iii)

C.

Nx
Dx

N 30

4, 231.902
90684, D30

Therefore C

12

4, 231.902

7874

367.45

Definitions:
(i)

(a)

## Crude Mortality Rate the ratio of the total number of deaths in a

category to the total exposed to risk in the same category.

(b)

## Directly Standardised Mortality Rate

the mortality rate of a
category weighted according to a standard population.

(c)

## Indirectly Standardised Mortality Rate

an approximation to the
directly standardised mortality rate being the crude rate for the
standard population multiplied by the ratio of actual to expected deaths
for the region.
This is the same as the crude rate for the local population multiplied by
the Area Comparability Factor.

Page 7

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical)

(ii)

(a)

April 2006

Examiners Report

Calculations.
England and Wales
Total

Population

Number of births

Population

Number of births

10,845,000

595,000

227,000

11,000

## Crude birth rate: England and Wales 595,000/10,845,000 = 5.49%

Tyne and Wear: 11,000/227,000 = 4.85%
England and Wales
Population

## Tyne and Wear

Fertility rate

Expected number of
births

Under 25

3,149,000

0.0563

177,408

25 35

3,769,000

0.0811

305,595

35+

3,927,000

0.0122

47,890

Total

10,845,000

530,893

## Directly standardised rate: 530,893/10,845,000 = 4.90%

England and Wales

Fertility rate

Population

Expected Births

Under 25

0.0486

71,000

3,450

25 35

0.0899

74,000

6,656

35+

0.0262

82,000

2,151

227,000

12,256

Total

## Indirectly standardised rate: 5.49%/(12,256/11,000) = 4.93%

(b)

The indirectly standardised rate does not require local records of births
to be analysed by age grouping.
The standardised rates are similar so the approximation is acceptable.
Both standardised rates are higher than the crude rate, showing that the
reason for the low cruder rate compared to the national population is
due to population distribution by age.
Both standardised rates are below the crude rate for England and
Wales so the birth rate of Tyne and Wear is lower, even allowing for
the age distribution.

Page 8

13

(i)

April 2006

Examiners Report

## Let P denote the monthly premium for the contract. Then

(12)
12 Pa[35]:30

12 a[35]:30

12 P 17.631

11
(1 v30 30 p[35] )
24

11
689.23
1
24
2507.02

207.5841P

## EPV of benefits and expenses =

(245, 000 300) A[35]:30

0.03 12 Pa (12)

[35]:30

5000 IA

1
[35]:30

where
IA

1
[35]:30

7.47005

IA

[35]

## v30 30 p[35] ( IA)65 30 A65

689.23
7.89442 30 0.52786
2507.02

0.946137

689.23
2507.02

207.5841P

126,506.762
195.3866

647.47

Page 9

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical)

(ii)
retrospective
25V

April 2006

Examiners Report

(a)
(1 i ) 25
(12)
0.97 12 Pa[35]:25
p
25 [35]

1
245,300 A[35]:25

5, 000 IA

1
[35]:25

## 0.03P 250 0.5 12 P

where
IA

1
[35]:25

IA

7.47005

retrospective

v 25 25 p[35] IA

60

25 A60

882.85
8.36234 25 0.4564
2507.02

0.507198

1
A[35]:25

A[35]:25

v 25 25 p[35]

a (12)

a[35]:25

11
(1 v 25 25 p[35] ) 16.029 0.29693 15.73207
24

[35]:25

25V

[35]

## 2.83969(177.151295P 10476.145) 295,963.86

(b)

Page 10

Surrender value would be the same i.e. 25V retrospective 25V prospective at
4% per annum rate of interest as the equality of bases ensures that the
prospective and retrospective reserves of any policy at any given time t
should be equal.

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical)

14

(i)

April 2006

Examiners Report

Let P be the annual premium required to meet the company s profit criteria.
Then:
(a)

## Multiple decrement table

Here not all decrements are uniform as whilst deaths can be assumed to
be uniformly distributed over the year, surrenders occur only at the
year end.
Hence:
(aq ) dx

## qxd and (aq ) wx

qxw (1 qwd )
aq

q xd

qxw

45
46
47

0.001465
0.001622
0.001802

0.05
0.05
0.05

(b)

d
x

0.001465
0.001622
0.001802

aq

w
x

ap

t 1 ( ap ) x

0.049927 0.948608 1
0.049919 0.948459 0.948608
0.049910 0.948288 0.899716

Value of units
at start of year
Allocation
Bid/offer
Interest
Management
charge
Value of units
at start of year

Year 1
0

Year 2
0.347379P

Year 3
1.405063P

0.35P
0.0175P
0.016625P
0.001746P

1.05P
0.0525P
0.067244P
0.007061P

1.05P
0.0525P
0.120128P
0.012613P

0.347379P

1.405063P

2.510077P

Page 11

(c)

April 2006

Examiners Report

## Non-unit fund cashflows

Unallocated
Bid/offer
Expenses
Interest
Management
charge
End of year
cashflows
Probability in
force
Discount factor
Expected
present value
of profit

Year 1
0.65P

Year 2
-0.05P

Year 3
-0.05P

0.0175P
0.2P+250
0.0187P-10
0.001746P

0.0525P
0.025P+50
-0.0009P-2
0.007061P

0.0525P
0.025P+50
-0.0009P-2
0.012613P

0.487946P-260

-0.016339P-52 -0.010787P-52

0.948608

0.899716

0.925926

0.857339

0.793832

0.430809P320.170863

(ii)

## Later expected future negative cashflows should be reduced to zero by

establishing reserves in the non-unit fund at earlier durations so that the
company does not expect to have to input further money in the future. The
expected non-unit fund cashflows derived in (i) are negative in years 2and 3 so
need to be eliminated.

## END OF EXAMINERS REPORT

Page 12

Faculty of Actuaries

Institute of Actuaries

EXAMINATION
12 September 2006 (pm)

Subject CT5
Contingencies
Core Technical
Time allowed: Three hours
INSTRUCTIONS TO THE CANDIDATE
1.

Enter all the candidate and examination details as requested on the front of your answer
booklet.

2.

You must not start writing your answers in the booklet until instructed to do so by the
supervisor.

3.

## Mark allocations are shown in brackets.

4.

Attempt all 12 questions, beginning your answer to each question on a separate sheet.

5.

## AT THE END OF THE EXAMINATION

question paper.
In addition to this paper you should have available the 2002 edition of the
Formulae and Tables and your own electronic calculator.

CT5 S2006

Faculty of Actuaries
Institute of Actuaries

## In a certain country, pension funds always provide pensions to retiring employees. At

the point of retirement, the fund can choose to buy an annuity from a life insurance
company, or pay the pension directly themselves on an ongoing basis.
A mortality study of pensioners has established that the experience of those whose
pension is received through annuities paid by insurance companies is lighter than the
experience of those being paid directly by pension funds.
Explain why the mortality experiences of the two groups differ. Your answer should
include reference to some form of selection.
[4]

## A life insurance company uses the following three-state continuous-time Markov

model, with constant forces of transition, to price its stand-alone critical illness
policies:

Healthy

Critically ill

Under these policies, a lump sum benefit is payable on the occasion that a life
becomes critically ill during a specified policy term. No other benefits are payable.
A 20-year policy with sum assured 200,000 is issued to a healthy life aged 40 exact.
(i)

Write down a formula, in integral terms, for the expected present value of
benefits under this policy.
[2]

(ii)

Basis:

:
:
:
Interest:

0.01
0.02
3
8% per annum
[3]
[Total 5]

70: 1

## between consecutive integer ages.

Basis: Mortality: ELT15 (Males)
Interest:
7.5% per annum
[5]

CT5 S2006

A life insurance company issues a reversionary annuity contract. Under the contract
an annuity of 20,000 per annum is payable monthly for life, to a female life now
aged 60 exact, on the death of a male life now aged 65 exact. Annuity payments are
always on monthly anniversaries of the date of issue of the contract.
Premiums are to be paid monthly until the annuity commences or the risk ceases.
Calculate the monthly premium required for the contract.
Basis:

Mortality:
Interest:
Expenses:

## PFA92C20 for the female

PMA92C20 for the male
4% per annum
1.5% of each annuity payment
[6]

Tx and Ty are the complete future lifetimes of two lives aged x and y respectively:
Let the random variable g(T) take the following values

g(T) =

aT

aT

if

Tx

Ty

if

Tx

Ty

(i)

[2]

(ii)

## Express E[g(T)] as an integral.

[2]

(iii)

Write down an expression for the variance of g(T) using assurance functions.
[2]
[Total 6]

CT5 S2006

A member of a pension scheme is aged 55 exact, and joined the scheme at age 35
exact. She earned a salary of 40,000 in the 12 months preceding the scheme
valuation date.
The scheme provides a pension on retirement for any reason of 1/80th of final
pensionable salary for each year of service, with fractions counting proportionately.
Final pensionable salary is defined as the average salary over the three years prior to
retirement.
Using the functions and symbols defined in, and assumptions underlying, the
Example Pension Scheme Table in the Actuarial Tables:

(i)

Calculate the expected present value now of this member s total pension.

[4]

(ii)

## Calculate the contribution rate required, as a percentage of salary, to fund the

future service element of the pension.
[2]
[Total 6]

The following data relate to a certain country and its biggest province:

Age-group

Country
Population
Deaths

0-19
20-44
45-69
70 and over
Total

2,900,000
3,500,000
2,900,000
700,000
10,000,000

580
2,450
20,300
49,000
72,330

Province
Population
800,000
1,000,000
900,000
300,000
3,000,000

The population figures are from a mid-year census along with the deaths that occurred
in that year.
There were 25,344 deaths in the province in total.
Calculate the Area Comparability Factor and a standardised mortality rate for the
province.
[6]

A pure endowment policy for a term of n years payable by single premium is issued to
lives aged x at entry.
(i)

Derive Thiele s differential equation for t V , the reserve for this policy at time
t (0 < t < n).
[5]

(ii)

(iii)

CT5 S2006

[2]
[2]
[Total 9]

## A life insurance company issues a 3-year unit-linked endowment assurance contract

to a female life aged 60 exact under which level premiums of 5,000 per annum are
payable in advance. In the first year, 85% of the premium is allocated to units and
104% in the second and third years. The units are subject to a bid-offer spread of 5%
and an annual management charge of 0.75% of the bid value of the units is deducted
at the end of each year.
If the policyholder dies during the term of the policy, the death benefit of 20,000 or
the bid value of the units after the deduction of the management charge, whichever is
higher, is payable at the end of the year of death. On survival to the end of the term,
the bid value of the units is payable.
The company holds unit reserves equal to the full bid value of the units but does not
set up non-unit reserves.
It uses the following assumptions in carrying out profit tests of this contract:
Mortality:
Surrenders:
Expenses:

Initial:
Renewal:

## Unit fund growth rate:

Non-unit fund interest rate:
Risk discount rate:

AM92 Ultimate
None
600
100 at the start of each of the second and
third policy years
6% per annum
4% per annum
10% per annum

(i)

Calculate the expected net present value of the profit on this contract.

(ii)

State, with a reason, what the effect would be on the profit if the insurance
company did hold non-unit reserves to zeroise negative cashflows, assuming it
used a discount rate of 4% per annum for calculating those reserves. (You do
not need to perform any further calculations.)
[2]
[Total 12]

CT5 S2006

[10]

10

A life insurance company is reviewing the 2005 mortality experience of its portfolio
of whole life assurances.
You are given the following information:
Age exact on
1 Jan 2005

on 1 Jan 2005

## Reserves at 31 Dec 2005 of policies

in force on 31 Dec 2005

69
70

500,000
400,000

175,000
150,000

There were 2 death claims during 2005 arising from these policies as follows:
Date of issue of
policy

policy

Sum assured

1 Jan 1980
1 Jan 1982

45
46

12,000
10,000

## All premiums are payable annually on 1st January throughout life.

Sums assured are payable at the end of the year of death.
Net premium reserves are held, based on mortality of AM92 Ultimate and interest of
4% per annum.
(i)

(ii)

Calculate the mortality profit or loss for 2005 in respect of this group of
policies.

[8]

(a)

Calculate the amount of expected death claims for 2005 and compare it
with the amount of actual claims.

(b)

Suggest a reason for this result compared with that obtained in (i).
[4]
[Total 12]

CT5 S2006

11

A life insurance company issues identical deferred annuities to each of 100 women
aged 63 exact. The benefit is 5,000 per annum payable continuously from a
woman s 65th birthday, if still alive at that time, and for life thereafter.
(i)

Write down an expression for the random variable for the present value of
future benefits for one policy at outset.
[3]

(ii)

## Calculate the total expected present value at outset of these annuities.

Basis:

(iii)

12

Mortality:
Interest:

PFA92C20
4% per annum

[2]

Calculate the total variance of the present value at outset of these annuities,
using the same basis as in part (ii).
[8]
[Total 13]

A life insurance company issues a 10-year decreasing term assurance to a man aged
50 exact. The death benefit is 100,000 in the first year, 90,000 in the 2nd year, and
decreases by 10,000 each year so that the benefit in the 10th year is 10,000. The
death benefit is payable at the end of the year of death.
Level premiums are payable annually in advance for the term of the policy, ceasing
on earlier death.
(i)

Basis:
Interest:
Mortality:
Initial expenses:

6% per annum
AM92 Select
200 and 25% of the total annual premium (all incurred
on policy commencement)
Renewal expenses: 2% of each premium from the start of the 2nd policy year
and 50 per annum, inflating at 1.923% per annum, at
the start of the second and subsequent policy years
Claim expenses:
200 inflating at 1.923% per annum
Inflation:
For renewal and claim expenses, the amounts quoted are
at outset, and the increases due to inflation start
immediately.
[8]
(ii)

Write down an expression for the gross future loss random variable at the end
of the ninth year, using whatever elements of the basis in (i) that are relevant.
[3]

(iii)

Calculate the gross premium reserve at the end of the ninth year, using the
[3]

(iv)

END OF PAPER
CT5 S2006

[2]
[Total 16]

Faculty of Actuaries

Institute of Actuaries

EXAMINATION
September 2006

## Subject CT5 Contingencies

Core Technical
EXAMINERS REPORT
Introduction
The attached subject report has been written by the Principal Examiner with the aim of
helping candidates. The questions and comments are based around Core Reading as the
interpretation of the syllabus to which the examiners are working. They have however given
credit for any alternative approach or interpretation which they consider to be reasonable.
M A Stocker
Chairman of the Board of Examiners
November 2006

Faculty of Actuaries
Institute of Actuaries

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical) September 2006 Examiners Report

If funds chose at random which annuities to insure and which to self-insure, we would
expect approximately the same mortality experience in both groups. The self-insured
experience is heavier, meaning their lives are somehow below standard on average.
The most likely explanation is that the pension funds make informed decisions based
on the health or reason for retirement of the pensioners. Those retiring early due to
ill-health or those known to have poor health are retained for payment directly by the
fund. That should be cheaper than paying a premium to the insurer based on normal
mortality for these lives. The remainder of the lives, known to be on reasonable health
are insured.
Sensible comments regarding other forms of selection are also acceptable.

20

(i)

## EPV = 200, 000 e

HH
t p40 40+t dt

20

HH
= 200, 000 et t p40
40+t dt

0
t

20

= 200, 000 e t e

( 40 + r +40 + r ) dr
0

40+t dt

where:
t

HH
p40
is the probability that the healthy life aged 40is healthy at age 40+t

HH
p40
is the probability that the healthy life aged 40 is healthy at all points up
to age 40+t (These 2 probabilities are the same for this model)
t

= ln(1.08) = 0.076961
(ii)
t

20

## From EPV = 200, 000 e t e

( 40 + r +40 + r ) dr
0

40+t dt

0
t

20

## EPV = 200, 000 e (0.076961)t e

{(0.01) +(0.02)}dr
0

(0.02)dt

0
20

= 200, 000 e
0

(0.076961)t (0.03)t

20

0

## (200, 000)(0.02) (0.106961)t 20

e
=
= 37,396.79[1 0.11775] = 32,993.32

0
0.106961

Page 2

1

A1

70:1

0

## Here, assuming is constant for 0 < t < 1, we get

= -ln(p70) = -ln(1 - .03930) = 0.040093
t p70 = exp(-t) = exp(-.040093t)
.075 = ln(1.075) = 0.07232
1

A1
70:1

## = e 0.07232t e0.040093t (0.040093)dt

0
1
(0.040093)
e (0.07232+0.040093)t
0
(0.07232 + 0.040093)
= (0.35610)(0.89368 1) = 0.0379

EPV of benefits:
(12)
(12)
(12)
20, 000a65|60
= 20, 000(a60
a65:60
) = 20, 000(a60 a65:60 ) = 20, 000(15.652 11.682)

= 79, 400
(The premium term will be the joint lifetime of the two lives because if his death is
first the annuity commences or if her death is first, there will never be any annuity.)
Let P be the monthly premium
(12)
12 Pa65:60
= 12 P(a65:60 11
) = 12 P(12.682 0.458) = 146.688 P
24

## Equation of value allowing for expenses:

1.015(79,400) = (1 - 0.05)(146.688P) 80,591 = 139.3536P P
= 578.32 per month

(i)

(ii)

This is the present value of a joint life annuity of amount 1 per annum payable
continuously until the first death of 2 lives (x) and (y).

Page 3

2

(iii)

(i)

Var[ g (T )] =

A xy ( A xy ) 2

2

## EPV past service benefits:

40, 000

ia
ra
+ z M 55
)
20 ( z M 55
20 (34, 048 + 128, 026)
= 40, 000
= 119, 737
80
s54 D55
80 (9.745)(1,389)

z

ia

ra

## 40, 000 ( R55 + R55 ) 40, 000 (163, 063 + 963,869)

=
= 41, 628
80
s54 D55
80
(9.745)(1,389)
EPV total pension benefits = 119,737 + 41,628 = 161,365
s

(k )(40, 000)

(ii)

N 55
88, 615
= 41, 628 ( k )(40, 000)
= 41, 628 k = .159
s54 D55
(9.745)(1,389)

ACF =

s Exc,t s mx,t
x

Exc,t

Exc,t s mx,t
x

Exc,t
x

Here
s

E xc,t

E xc,t s m x ,t

E xc,t

Age-group

Population

Deaths

Population

019
2044
4569
70 and over

2,900,000
3,500,000
2,900,000
700,000

580
2,450
20,300
49,000

800,000
1,000,000
900,000
300,000

m x ,t

0.0002 160
0.0007 700
0.007 6,300
0.07

Total

Page 4

10,000,000

72,330

3,000,000

E xc,t s m x ,t

21,000
28,160

72,330
10, 000, 000

ACF =

28,160
=
3, 000, 000

## Indirectly standardised mortality rate = (ACF)*(Province crude rate)

25,344
= (0.77056)
= (0.77056)(0.008448) = 0.00651
3, 000, 000

8
tV

(i)
=

n t

px +t e( nt )

## ( nt px +t e( nt ) ) = {e( nt ) ( nt px+t )} + { nt px +t (e( nt ) )}

tV =
t
t
t
t

1

l
( nt px +t ) = ln( nt px +t ) = ln x + n = {ln(l x+ n ) ln(l x +t )} = x+t
t
t l x +t t
n t p x +t t

( nt px +t ) = ( x +t )( nt px+t )
t
( nt )
(e
) = e( nt )
t

( n t )
( x +t )( nt px +t )} + { nt px+t e( nt ) } = nt px +t e( nt ) ( x+t + )
t V = {e
t

t V = ( x +t + ) t V
t

(ii)

The change in reserve at time t consists of the interest earned and the release
of reserves from the deaths.
(The release may be more easily seen if the last line of (i) is rewritten as:

t
benefit.)

(iii)

nV

= 1.

Page 5

(i)

Survival table

qx

x
60
61
62

px

0.008022
0.009009
0.010112

t-1px

0.99198
0.99099
0.98989

1
0.991978
0.983041

Unit fund

Value of
units at
start of
year
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3

Allocation

0.00
4,247.65
9,665.87

4,250.00
5,200.00
5,200.00

Bid/offer

212.50
260.00
260.00

Interest

Management
charge

Value of
units at
end of year

242.25
551.26
876.35

32.10
73.04
116.12

4,247.65
9,665.87
15,366.10

Non-unit fund

Unallocated

Year 1
Year 2
Year 3

Bid/offer

750.00
-200.00
-200.00

212.50
260.00
260.00

Non-unit
fund cash
flow (profit
vector)
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3

282.73
-61.66
27.66

Total NPV

Expenses

Interest

Management
charge

600.00
100.00
100.00

14.50
-1.60
-1.60

32.10
73.04
116.12

Probability
in force at
start of
year
1
0.991978
0.983041

Profit
signature

Discount
factor

282.73 0.909091
-61.16 0.826446
27.19 0.751315

Extra
death
benefit

End of year
cashflows

126.37
93.10
46.86

282.73
-61.66
27.66

Expected
present
value of
profit
257.03
-50.55
20.43
226.91

## Expected NPV = 226.91

(ii)

Page 6

The NPV would decrease. Holding reserves would delay the emergence of
some of the Year 1 cash flow, and as the non-unit fund earns 4%, well below
the risk discount rate, the NPV would reduce.

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical) September 2006 Examiners Report

10

(i)

The 2 deaths were 70 and 69 respectively at 1/1/2005. The reserves for these
policies at 31/12/2005 were
26V

a
9.998

## = 12, 000 1 71 = 12, 000 1

= 5, 626.10 and
18.823
a45

24V

a
10.375
= 10, 000 1 70 = 10, 000 1
= 4, 410.92
18.563
a46

## Total death strain at risk, sorted by age at 1/1/2005:

Age 69: 500,000 - (175,000 + 4,410.92) = 320,589.08
Age 70: 400,000 - (150,000 + 5,626.10) = 244,373.90
Expected death strain:
(q69)(320,589.08) + (q70)(244,373.90)
= (0.022226)(320,589.08) + (0.024783)(244,373.90)
= 7,125.41 + 6,056.32
= 13,181.73
Actual death strain:
(12,000-5,626.10)+(10,000-4,410.92) = 6,373.90+5,589.08 = 11,962.98
Mortality profit = EDS ADS = 13,181.73-11,962.98 = 1,218.75 profit
(ii)

(a)

Expected claims:
(q69)(500,000)+(q70)(400,000)
= (0.022226)(500,000) + (0.024783)(400,000)
= 11,113 + 9,913.2 = 21,026.20
Actual claims:
12,000 + 10,000 = 22,000

(b)

Actual claims were higher than expected claims but the company still
made a mortality profit. This can only have occurred because the
deaths were disproportionately concentrated on lower DSAR lives
(policies more mature on average). (This can be seen by comparing the
ratio of reserves to sum assured for the death claim policies with the
corresponding ratio for the full portfolio.)

Page 7

11

(i)

g(T) =

5, 000v 2 aT

## if T63 2 (or 5, 000(aT

if T63 < 2

63 2

63

a2 )

(ii)
E[ g (T )] = (100)(5, 000)v 2 2 p63a65 = (500, 000)(0.92456)(0.992617)(14.871 0.5)
= (500, 000)(13.1887) = 6,594,350

(iii)

Var[ g (T )] = E[ g (T ) 2 ] E[ g (T )]2

For 1 of annuity:

E[ g (T ) ] = t p6363+t [v 2 at 2 ]2 dt
2

Let t = r + 2

E[ g (T ) ] = r + 2 p6363+ r + 2 [v 2 ar ]2 dr
2

0
2

1 v r
= r p652 p6365+ r v
dr

0
4

=
=

2 p63v
2

r p6565+r [1 2v

2 p63v
2

+ v 2 r ]dr

0
4

[1 2 A65 + A65 ]

where
0.04
A65 = (1.04)0.5 (1 da65 ) = 1.019804{1
(14.871)} = 0.436515
1.04
2

## and A65 = (1.04)( 2 A65 ) = (1.04)(0.20847) = 0.21681

E[ g (T ) 2 ] =

(0.992617)(0.85480)
(0.039221) 2

Page 8

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical) September 2006 Examiners Report

For annuity of 5,000 we need to increase by 5,0002 and for 100 (independent)
lives we need to multiply by 100.
Total variance = (15.680)(5,0002)(100) = 39,200,000,000 = (197,999)2

12

EPV benefits:
110, 000 A 1

[50]:10

## 10, 000( IA)

1
[50]:10

(functions @ 6% p.a.)

= 110, 000{ A[50] v10 10 p[50] A60 } 10, 000{( IA)[50] v10 10 p[50] (10 A60 + ( IA)60 )}
= 110, 000 A[50] 10, 000( IA)[50] + v10 10 p[50]{10, 000(( IA)60 A60 )}
= (110, 000)(0.20463) (10, 000)(4.84789) + (0.55839)(0.95684){10, 000(5.46572 0.32692)}
= 22,509.30 48, 478.90 + 27, 456.09 = 1, 486.49

6%
Pa[50]:10
= 7.698 P

EPV expenses
6%
4%
200 + 0.25 P + 0.02 Pa[50]:9
+ 50a[50]:9
+ 200 A 1

4%

[50]:10
4%
p A )
(4%) 10 [50] 60

6%
4%
= 150 + 0.23P + 0.02 Pa[50]:10
+ 50a[50]:10
+ 200( A[50] v10

## = 150 + 0.23P + 0.02 P(7.698) + (50)(8.318) + 200(0.32868 (0.67556)(0.95684)(0.45640))

= 150 + 415.90 + 6.73 + P(.23 + 0.15396) = 572.63 + 0.38396 P
Equation of value:
7.698P = 1,486.49 + 572.63 + 0.38396P 7.31404P = 2,059.12 so P = 281.53 p.a.
(ii)

## If K59 1 GFLRV = 50(1.01923)9 0.98(281.53) else (i.e. K59 = 0)

GFLRV = 10, 000v

.06

+ 200(1.01923)9 v

.04

+50(1.01923)9 0.98(281.53)
or
GFLRV = 10, 000v

.06

+ 200(1.01923)10 v

.06

+50(1.01923) 0.98(281.53)
9

Page 9

(iii)
9V

## = 10, 000q59v.06 + 200(1.01923)9 q59v.04

+50(1.01923)9 0.98(281.53)
= (10, 000)(0.007140)(0.94340) + (237.40)((0.007140)(0.96154) + 59.35 275.90
= 67.36 + 1.63 + 59.35 275.90 = 147.56

(iv)

The reserve is negative. The expected future income exceeds expected future
outgo, because past outgo exceeded past income, meaning the office needs a
net inflow in the last year to recoup previous losses. However, it is at risk of
the policy lapsing, and never getting this net inflow.

## END OF EXAMINERS REPORT

Page 10

Faculty of Actuaries

Institute of Actuaries

EXAMINATION
17 April 2007 (am)

## Subject CT5 Contingencies

Core Technical
Time allowed: Three hours
INSTRUCTIONS TO THE CANDIDATE
1.

Enter all the candidate and examination details as requested on the front of your answer
booklet.

2.

You must not start writing your answers in the booklet until instructed to do so by the
supervisor.

3.

## Mark allocations are shown in brackets.

4.

Attempt all 14 questions, beginning your answer to each question on a separate sheet.

5.

## AT THE END OF THE EXAMINATION

question paper.
In addition to this paper you should have available the 2002 edition of the
Formulae and Tables and your own electronic calculator.

CT5 A2007

Faculty of Actuaries
Institute of Actuaries

Calculate
(i)

5|10q[52]

(ii)

## p[50]:[60] for two independent lives

Basis:
Mortality: AM92 Select

[3]

State, with examples, three distinct types of selection in the membership of a pension
scheme.
[3]

## A three-state transition model is shown in the following diagram:

x
a =able

i = ill
x

Assume that the transition probabilities are constant at all ages with = 2%, = 6%,
= 1% and = 3%.
An able life age 55 exact takes out a 10-year sickness contract that provides a noclaim bonus of 100 if the insured remains able for the full duration of the contract.
Calculate the expected present value of the bonus at the beginning of the contract with
a force of interest of 0.04.
[4]

(i)

In the context of net premiums and reserves, state the conditions necessary for
equality of prospective and retrospective reserves.
[2]

(ii)

Give two reasons why, in practice, these conditions may not hold.

CT5 A20072

[2]
[Total 4]

## An assurance contract provides a death benefit of 1,000 payable immediately on

death, with a savings benefit of 500 payable on every fifth anniversary of the
inception of the policy.
The following basis is used:
Force of mortality: x = 0.05 for all x
Force of interest: = 0.04
Expenses:
None

[5]

## A pension scheme provides a benefit on death in service of 4 times the members

salary at the date of death. Normal Pension Age is 65. State a formula, without using
commutation functions, for the present value of this benefit to a life aged 35 exact
with salary of 25,000 who has just received a salary increase. Define all symbols
used.
[5]

A term assurance contract for a life aged 50 exact for a term of 10 years provides a
benefit of 10,000 payable at the end of the year of death. Calculate the expected
present value and variance of benefits payable under this contract.
Basis:
Mortality: AM92 Select
Interest:
4% per annum
[6]

You are given the following statistics in relation to the mortality experience of
Actuaria and its province Giro:
Actuaria
Exposed to risk Number of deaths

Age
019
2039
4059
6079
(i)

(ii)

300,000
275,000
200,000
175,000

25
35
100
500

Exposed to risk
12,000
10,000
9,000
8,000

Giro
Number of deaths
2
3
6
50

## Explain, giving a formula, the term Standardised Mortality Ratio (SMR).

Define all the symbols that you use.

[2]

for Giro.
[4]
[Total 6]

CT5 A20073

## A life insurance company issues an annuity to a life aged 60 exact to provide an

annual income of 15,000. The annuity is payable monthly in advance and is
guaranteed to be paid for a period of 5 years and for the whole of life thereafter. On
the annuitants death a survivors pension is paid at the rate 7,500 per annum for the
remainder of life for the spouse of the annuitant who is currently aged 55 exact under
the following circumstances:
(a)

If the life dies within the guarantee period then the survivors pension
commences with the first payment immediately after the end of the guarantee
period.

(b)

If the life dies after the guarantee period has expired then the survivors
pension commences with the first payment immediately after the death of the
first life.

Basis:
Annuitant mortality: PMA92C20
Spouse mortality:
PFA92C20
Interest:
4% per annum
[6]

10

Let X be a random variable representing the present value of the benefits of a whole of
life assurance, and Y be a random variable representing the present value of the
benefits of a temporary assurance with a term of n years. Both assurances have a sum
assured of 1 payable at the end of the year of death and were issued to the same life
aged x.
(i)

(ii)

Describe the benefits provided by the contract which has a present value
represented by the random variable X - Y.

[1]

Show that

## Cov[ X , Y ] = 2 A1x:n Ax * A1x:n

and hence or otherwise that
Var( X Y ) =

Ax ( n | Ax ) 2 2 A1x:n

## where the functions A are determined using an interest rate of i, and

functions 2A are determined using an interest rate of i2 + 2i.

CT5 A20074

[7]
[Total 8]

11

A five-year unit-linked policy issued to a life aged 50 exact has the following pattern
of end of year cashflows per policy in force at the start of each year:
(-95.21, -30.18, -20.15, 77.15, 120.29)

12

(i)

Explain why a life office might need to set up non-unit reserves in respect of a
[2]

(ii)

Calculate the non-unit reserves required for the policy in order to zeroise
negative cashflows assuming AM92 Ultimate mortality and that reserves earn
interest at the rate of 5% per annum.
[2]

(iii)

Determine the net present value of the profits before and after zeroisation
assuming the risk discount rate used is 8% per annum and state with reasons
which of these figures you would expect to be higher.
[6]
[Total 10]

A life office issued 750 identical 25-year temporary assurance policies to lives aged
30 exact each with a sum assured of 75,000 payable at the end of year of death.
Premiums are payable annually in advance for 20 years or until earlier death.
(i)

Show that the annual net premium for each policy is approximately equal to
104 using the basis given below.
[2]

(ii)

Calculate the net premium reserve per policy at the start and at the end of the
[4]
20th year of the policy.

(iii)

Calculate the mortality profit or loss to the life office during the 20th year if
twelve policyholders die during the first nineteen years of the policies and two
[4]
policyholders die during the 20th year.

Basis:
Mortality:
Interest:

AM92 Ultimate
4% per annum
[Total 10]

CT5 A20075

13

A life office issues with-profit whole of life contracts, with the sum assured payable
immediately on death of the life assured. Level premiums are payable monthly in
advance to age 65 or until earlier death.
The life office markets two versions of this policy, one assumed to provide simple
bonuses of 4% per annum of the sum assured vesting at the end of each policy year
and the other assumed to provide compound bonuses of 4% of the sum assured, again
vesting at the end of each policy year. The death benefit under each version does not
include any bonus relating to the policy year of death.
The following basis is assumed to price these contracts:
Mortality
Interest
Initial expenses
Renewal expenses
Initial commission
Renewal commission
Claims expenses

AM92 Select
4% per annum
300
2.5% of the second and subsequent monthly premiums
50% of the gross annual premium
2.5% of the second and subsequent monthly premiums
250 at termination of the contract

Calculate the level monthly premium required for each version of this policy issued to
a life aged 30 exact at outset for an initial sum assured of 50,000.
[12]

14

A life office issues a 4-year non profit endowment assurance policy to a male life
aged 61 exact for a sum assured of 100,000 payable on survival to the end of the
term or at the end of the year of death if earlier. Premiums are payable annually in
advance throughout the term of the policy.
There is a surrender benefit payable equal to a return of premiums paid, with no
interest. This benefit is payable at the end of the year of surrender.
The life office uses the following assumptions to price this contract:
Mortality
Surrenders
Interest
Initial expenses
Renewal expenses (on the second

AM92 Select
None
4% per annum
500
50 per annum plus 2.5% of the premium

Ultimate mortality and interest of 4% per annum.
In order to profit test this contract, the life office assumes the same mortality and
expense assumptions as per the pricing basis above. In addition, it assumes it earns
5% per annum on funds and that 5% of all policies still in force at the end of 1, 2, and
3 years then surrender.
Calculate, using a risk discount rate of 8% per annum, the expected profit margin on
this contract.
[18]

END OF PAPER
CT5 A20076

Faculty of Actuaries

Institute of Actuaries

EXAMINATION
April 2007

## Subject CT5 Contingencies

Core Technical
EXAMINERS REPORT
Introduction
The attached subject report has been written by the Principal Examiner with the aim of
helping candidates. The questions and comments are based around Core Reading as the
interpretation of the syllabus to which the examiners are working. They have however given
credit for any alternative approach or interpretation which they consider to be reasonable.

M A Stocker
Chairman of the Board of Examiners
June 2007

Comments, where applicable, are given in the solutions that follow.

Faculty of Actuaries
Institute of Actuaries

(i)

5|10 q[52]

(ii)

## Class selection different classes of members experience different mortality rates.

e.g. works versus staff. Alternatively ill-health retirements, other early retirement and
normal retirements experience different mortality
Temporary Initial selection employee turnover rates vary with duration of
employment, recent joiners are most likely to leave.
Time selection turnover rates vary with economic conditions.
Other answers given credit if properly defined with pension fund specific examples.

65

EPV = 100e

## (0.02+ 0.03+ 0.04) dx

55

= 100e0.09*[6555]
= 100e 0.9
= 40.66

(i)

(ii)

Page 2

## The retrospective and prospective reserves are calculated on the same

basis.

The basis is the same as the basis used to calculate the premiums used in
the reserve calculation.

## Two reasons are:

The assumptions used for the retrospective calculation (for which the
experienced conditions over the duration of the contract up to the valuation
date are used) are not generally appropriate for the prospective calculation
(for which the assumptions considered suitable for the remainder of the
policy term are used).

## The assumptions considered appropriate at the time the premium was

calculated may not be appropriate for the retrospective or prospective
reserve some years later.

## 1000* 0.05*exp( 0.09ds )dt =

1000* 0.05*e
0

0.09t

dt = 1000*0.05 / 0.09

= 555.56

## Value of survival benefit every 5th year:

500*(e-0.45 + e-0.9 + e-1.35 +)
= 500*e-0.45/(1 - e-0.45) = 500*0.63763/0.36237
= 879.81
P*(1 + e-.09 + e -.18 + e-.27 +.)
= P*(1/1 - e-.09) = 11.619*P
Hence
11.619*P = 555.56+879.81
P = 123.54

29

4 25, 000 t =0

s36l35v35

definitions:

## s x salary in year to age x

d x number of deaths in year of age x to x + 1
l x number of lives alive at age x exact
Other schemes given credit if properly defined.

Page 3

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical) April 2007 Examiners Report

Present value
1
10000 A[50]:10
= 10000( A[50] v10

l60

## = 10000(0.32868 v10 9287.2164

l[50]

A60 )

9706.0977

0.45640) = 336.60

Variance
1
1
= 100002 ( 2 A[50]:10
( A[50]:10
)2 )

= 100002 (( 2 A[50] v 20

l60

l[50]

9706.0977

## 0.23723) 0.0336662 ) = 2543992

The function with the 2 suffix is calculated at rate i2+2i i.e 8.16% in this case.

(i)

## The standardised mortality ratio is the ratio of the indirectly standardised

mortality rate to the crude mortality rate in the standard population.

SMR =

Ecx,t mx,t
x

Ecx,t s mx,t
x

E xc,t = central exposed to risk in population being studied between age x and age x + t
mx,t = central mortality rate in population being studied for ages x to x + t
s

(ii)

## SMR = (2 + 3 + 6 + 50) / (25 12/300 + 35 10/275 + 100 9 / 200

+ 500 8 / 175)
= 2.058
As the SMR is greater than 1, Giro experiences heavier mortality than
Actuaria

Page 4

## Equation of present value:

(12)
(12)
Purchase price = 15, 000a(12) + 7500 5 a60
+ 7500 5 a60:55
5

5
(12)
+7500v5 (1 5 p 60) 5 p55 a(12)
65
60 + 7500v (1 5 p 55) 5 p60 a

l65l60

l60l55

l65

l60

## (a65 + a60 a65:60 11/ 24)

+7500v5 [(1 l 65 / l 60)l 60 / l 55)(a60 11/ 24) + (1 l 60 / l 55)l 65 / l 60)(a65 11/ 24)]
= 15000 (1 0.82193) / 0.039157 + 7500 0.82193 9647.797
+7500 0.82193 9647.797

9826.131

9848.431

9917.623

9826.131

## +7500 0.82193 (1 9647.797 / 9826.131) 9848.431/ 9917.623 (16.652 11/ 24)

+7500 0.82193 (1 9848.431/ 9917.623) 9647.797 / 9826.131 (13.666 11/ 24)
= 68213.86 + 79940.67 + 103244.12 + 1799.09 + 557.72
= 253755 to nearest

The following is an alternative derivation of the formula for the purchase price above.
(12)
(12)
15, 000a5|(12) + 15, 000v5 5 p60 (1 5 p55 )a65
+ 7,500v5 5 p55 (1 5 p60 )a60
(12)
(12)
(12)
+ v5 5 p60 5 p55 (15, 000a65
+ 7,500[a60
a65:60
])

10

(i)

## X Y is the present value of a deferred whole of life assurance with a sum

assured of 1 payable at the end of the year of death of a life now aged x
provided the life dies after age x + n.

(ii)

X = vk+1

Cov(X, Y)

all k

v k +1 0 k < n
Y=
kn
0

Page 5

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical) April 2007 Examiners Report

k = n 1

Now E[XY] =

k =0
k = n 1

k =0

(v k +1 ) 2 P[ K x = k ] +

k =

vk +1 0 P[ K x = k ]

k =n

(v 2 ) k +1 P[ K x = k ]

= 2 A1x:n
Where 2A is determined using a discount function v2 , i.e. using an interest rate
i* = (1 + i)2 1 = 2i + i2
Then: Cov(X, Y) = 2 A1x:n Ax . A1x:n
Now: Var(X Y) = Var(X) + Var(Y) 2 Cov(X, Y)
= ( 2 Ax ( Ax ) 2 ) + ( 2 A1x:n ( A1 ) 2 ) 2( 2 A1x:n Ax . A1x:n )
x:n

## = ( 2 Ax + 2 A1x:n 2 2 A1x:n ) (( Ax ) 2 + ( A1 ) 2 ) 2 A1x:n Ax )

x:n

= 2 Ax 2 A1x:n ( Ax A1x:n ) 2
= 2 Ax 2 A1x:n ( nAx ) 2
The Examiners regret that two typographical errors occurred in the question wording set in
the Examination:

In line 2 of 10(ii) the symbol shown as 2 A1x should have been 2 A1x:n .

In the same line the function on the left hand side of the equation should have read
Cov(X,Y) and not have included in the brackets 2 assurance functions (which as
erroneously stated would have equated to zero).

In the event this question was done well despite the errors. The majority of students
attempting the question noticed the first error as obvious and adjusted accordingly. The
second error was rarely noticed by students who often went on to produce an otherwise good
proof.
The question has been corrected for publication. The Examiners wish to sincerely apologise
for these errors and wish to assure students that the marking system was sympathetically

Page 6

11

(i)

## It is a principle of prudent financial management that once sold and funded at

outset a product should be self-supporting. Many products produce profit
signatures that usually have a single financing phase. However, some
products, particularly those with substantial expected outgo at later policy
durations, can give profit signatures which have more than one financing
phase. In such cases these later negative cashflows should be reduced to zero
by establishing reserves in the non-unit fund at earlier durations. These
reserves are funded by reducing earlier positive cashflows.

(ii)

## The reserves required at the end of year 2 and year 1 are:

20.15
= 19.190
1.05
1
1
(30.18 + p51 19.190) =
(30.18 + 0.99719 19.190) = 46.968
1V =
1.05
1.05
2V

(iii)

Before zeroisation, the net present value (based on a risk discount rate of 8%)
is:

NPV =

## 95.21 p50 30.18 2 p50 20.15 3 p50 77.15 4 p50 120.29

+
+
1.08
1.082
1.083
1.084
1.085
95.21 0.99749 30.18 0.99469 20.15 0.99155 77.15 0.98804 120.29

+
+
1.08
1.082
1.083
1.084
1.085

## After zeroisation, the profit in year 1 becomes:

Profit in year 1 = 95.21 p50 1V = 95.21 0.99749 46.968 = 142.06
So profit vector will become (-142.06, 0, 0, 77.15, 120.29)
And NPV after zeroisation will be:
NPV =

## p 77.15 4 p50 120.29

142.06
+ 0 + 0 + 3 50 4
+
1.08
1.08
1.085
142.06
0.99155 77.15 0.98804 120.29
+0+0+
+
1.08
1.084
1.085

Page 7

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical) April 2007 Examiners Report

As expected, the NPV after zeroisation is smaller because the emergence of
the profits has been deferred and the risk discount rate is greater than the
accumulation rate.

12

(i)

1
Net premium per policy is P where Pa30:20 = 75, 000 A30:25

P=

9557.8179

## 75, 000 0.16023 1.0425

0.38950
9925.2094

=
9712.0728
21.834 1.0420
17.444
9925.2094
( 0.16023 0.14070 ) = 104.30
= 75, 000
( 21.834 7.7903)
(ii)

Net premium reserve per policy at the end of the 20th year

1
= 75, 000 A50:5
0 = 75, 000 A50 v5 5 p50 A55

9557.8179

## = 75, 000 0.32907 1.045

0.38950 = 75, 000 0.014014 = 1051.06
9712.0728

Net premium reserve per policy at the start of the 20th year

Sq49 + 20Vp49
P
1+ i
75, 000q49 + 1051.06 p49
=
104.30
1.04
75, 000 0.002241 + 1051.06 0.997759
=
104.30
1.04
= 1065.68

(iii)

## Death strain at risk = 75,000 1051 = 73,949

EDS = 738q49 73,949 = 122,301
ADS = 2 73,949 = 147,898
Mortality profit = 122,301 147,898 = -25,597 (i.e. a loss)

Page 8

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical) April 2007 Examiners Report

13

(i)

Let P be the monthly premium for the contract with simple bonus. Then
equation of value (at 4% p.a. interest) is:
12 P(.95a(12)

[30]:35

where a(12)

[30]:35

## ) 5.95 P = (48, 000 + 250) A[30] + 2, 000( IA)[30] + 300

= a[30]:35

11
11
8821.2612
1 v35 35 p[30] = 19.072 1 1.0435

24
24
9923.7497

= 18.7169

Therefore:
12 P(.95 18.7169) 5.95 P = (48, 000 + 250) 1.040.5 0.16011 + 2, 000 1.040.5 6.91644 + 300

i.e.
207.42266 P = 7,878.299 + 14,106.825 + 300

P=
(ii)

22, 285.124
= 107.44
207.42266

Let P be the monthly premium for the contract with compound bonus. Then
equation of value (at 4% p.a. interest) is:

@ 4%
(12)
12 P(.95a[30]:35
) 5.95 P = 50, 000 v 0.5 q[ x ] + v1.5 p[ x ]q[ x ]+1 (1.04) + ... + 250 A[30]
+ 300

## 50, 000 0.5

@ 4%
+ 300
v 1.04q[ x ] + v1.5 1.042 p[ x ]q[ x ]+1 + ... + 250 A[30]

1.04

50, 000
@ 4%
v 1.04q[ x ] + v 2 1.042 p[ x ]q[ x ]+1 + ... + 250 A[30]
+ 300
0.5

(1.04 )

50, 000

(1.04 )

0.5

@ 0%
@ 4%
A[30]
+ 250 A[30]
+ 300

@ 0%
=1
where A[30]

50, 000

(1.04 )

0.5

P =

49,369.854
= 238.02
207.42266

Page 9

14

## Multiple decrement table:

X

q[dx ] = ( aq )[ x ]

q[sx ]

( aq )[sx] = q[sx]

61
62
63
64

0.006433
0.009696
0.011344
0.012716

0.05
0.05
0.05

0.04968
0.04952
0.04943

(ap)[61]+t 1

t 1 ( ap )[61]

1
2
3
4

0.943887
0.940784
0.939226
0.987284

1
0.94389
0.88799
0.83403

## Let P be the annual premium payable. Then equation value is:

Pa[61]:4 = 100, 000 A[61]:4 + (50 + 0.025 P)(a[61]:4 1) + 500
P(0.975a[61]:4 + 0.025) = 100, 000 A[61]:4 + 50(a[61]:4 1) + 500

P=

= 23,565.37
3.66175

1V61:4

= 1

a62:3

2V61:4

= 1

a63:2

3V61:4

= 1

a64:1

Page 10

a61:4

a61:4

a61:4

= 1

2.857
= 0.23240
3.722

= 1

1.951
= 0.47582
3.722

= 1

1.000
= 0.73133
3.722

(1 ( aq ) )
d
[ x]

Year t

1
2
3
4

Prem

Expense

Opening
reserve

Interest

Death
Claim

Surr
Claim

Mat
Claim

Closing
reserve

Profit
vector

23565.4
23565.4
23565.4
23565.4

500
639.1
639.1
639.1

0
23240.0
47582.0
73133.0

1153.3
2308.3
3525.4
4803.0

643.3
969.6
1134.4
1271.6

1170.7
2333.9
3494.5
0

0
0
0
98728.4

21935.9
44764.4
68688.4
0

468.8
406.7
716.4
862.3

Year t

Profit signature

Discount factor

1
2
3
4

468.8
383.9
636.2
719.2

.92593
.85734
.79383
.73503

434.1
329.1
505.0
528.6

Year t

t 1 p[61]

Discount factor

1
2
3
4

23565.4
23565.4
23565.4
23565.4

1
0.94389
0.88799
0.83403

1
.92593
.85734
.79383

23565.4
20595.6
17940.6
15602.1

## NPV of premiums = 77,703.7

Profit margin =

1, 796.8
= 0.0231 i.e. 2.31%
77, 703.7

## END OF EXAMINERS REPORT

Page 11

Faculty of Actuaries

Institute of Actuaries

EXAMINATION
28 September 2007 (am)

## Subject CT5 Contingencies

Core Technical
Time allowed: Three hours
INSTRUCTIONS TO THE CANDIDATE
1.

Enter all the candidate and examination details as requested on the front of your answer
booklet.

2.

You must not start writing your answers in the booklet until instructed to do so by the
supervisor.

3.

## Mark allocations are shown in brackets.

4.

Attempt all 14 questions, beginning your answer to each question on a separate sheet.

5.

## AT THE END OF THE EXAMINATION

question paper.
In addition to this paper you should have available the 2002 edition of the
Formulae and Tables and your own electronic calculator.

CT5 S2007

Faculty of Actuaries
Institute of Actuaries

## Calculate t+1Vx given the following:

Px
tVx
i
qx+t

=
=
=
=

0.017
0.468
0.03
0.024

In a special mortality table with a select period of one year, the following
relationships are true for all ages:
0.5 q[ x ]

= (0.33)qx

0.5 q[ x ]+ 0.5

= (0.5)qx

Express p[ x ] in terms of px .

[2]

[3]

A twelve-year life insurance contract has the following profit signature before any
non-unit reserves are created:
(+1, -1, +1, +1, +1, -1, 0, -1, +1, -1, +1, +1)
Non-unit reserves are to be set up to zeroise the negative cash flows.
Write down the revised profit signature, ignoring interest.

[3]

An annuity makes monthly payments in arrear to a life aged 65 exact where each
payment is 1.0039207 times greater than the one immediately preceding. The first
monthly amount is 1,000.
Calculate the expected present value of the annuity using the following basis:

Mortality: PFA92C20
Interest:
9% per annum

[4]

(i)

## Write down the formula for a directly standardised mortality rate.

[2]

(ii)

State the main disadvantage of this rate and outline how is it overcome in
practice.
[2]
[Total 4]

CT5 S20072

## For a certain group of pensioners, q75 = 0.05 and q76 = 0.06.

Calculate the probability that a pensioner aged 75 exact will die between ages 75.5
and 76.5 assuming:
(a)
(b)

## a uniform distribution of deaths between consecutive birthdays

a constant force of mortality between consecutive birthdays.

[5]

A life insurance company sells two whole life contracts to lives aged 40 exact at
entry. Level monthly premiums are payable in advance until the death of the life
assured. Death benefits are paid at the end of the year of death.
Under policy A, the sum assured is 100,000 during the first year and it increases by
5,000 at the end of each year for surviving policyholders.
Policy B is a with profit policy with initial sum assured of 100,000. The company
intends to declare simple annual reversionary bonuses of 5% of the original sum
assured each year, vesting at the end of each policy year.
After ten years, the total declared bonuses under the with profit policy amount to
50,000.
Calculate the net premium reserve required for each policy after ten years.
Basis:
Mortality: AM92 Select
Interest:
4% per annum

[6]

## Explain the following terms and give an example of each:

(a)
(b)
(c)

class selection
spurious selection
time selection.

CT5 S20073

[6]

A life office issues an annuity to a woman aged 65 exact and a man aged 68 exact.
The annuity of 20,000 per annum is payable annually in arrears for as long as either
of the lives is alive.
The office values this benefit using the following basis:
Interest:
Mortality:

10

4% per annum
PFA92C20
PMA92C20

(i)

## Calculate the expected present value of this benefit.

(ii)

Calculate the probability that the life office makes a profit in this case if it
charges a single premium of 320,000.
[4]
[Total 6]

[2]

A policy provides a benefit of 500,000 immediately on the death of (y) if she dies
after (x).
(i)

## Write down an expression in terms of Tx and Ty (random variables denoting

the complete future lifetimes of (x) and (y) respectively) for the present value
of the benefit under this policy.
[2]

(ii)

Write down an expression for the expected present value of the benefit in
terms of an integral.

(iii)

11

Female:
Males:

[2]

Suggest, with a reason, the most appropriate term for regular premiums to be
payable under this policy.
[2]
[Total 6]

Let X be a random variable representing the present value of the benefits of a pure
endowment contract and Y be a random variable representing the present value of the
benefits of a term assurance contract which pays the death benefit at the end of the
year of death. Both contracts have unit sum assured, a term of n years and were
issued to the same life aged x.
(i)

## Derive and simplify as far as possible using standard actuarial notation an

expression for the covariance of X and Y.
[4]

(ii)

## Hence or otherwise, derive an expression for the variance of (X+Y) and

simplify it as far as possible using standard actuarial notation.
[4]
[Total 8]

CT5 S20074

12

## On 1 January 1992 a life insurance company issued a number of 20-year pure

endowment policies to a group of lives aged 40 exact. In each case, the sum assured
On 1 January 2006, 500 policies were still in force. During 2006, 3 policyholders
died, and no policy lapsed for any other reason.
The office calculates net premiums and net premium reserves on the following basis:
Interest:
Mortality:

13

4% per annum
AM92 Select

(i)

Calculate the profit or loss from mortality for this group for the year ending
31 December 2006.
[7]

(ii)

[2]
[Total 9]

## A life insurance company issues a 35-year endowment assurance contract to a life

aged 30 exact. The sum assured of 200,000 is payable at maturity or at the end of
the year of death if earlier. Level premiums are payable annually in advance for the
duration of the contract.
(i)

Show that the annual premium is approximately 2,007, using the following
basis:
Interest:
Mortality:
Expenses:

Initial:
Renewal:
Claim:

6% p.a.
AM92 Ultimate
300 plus 50% of the annual premium
2% of the second and subsequent annual premiums
600 on death; 200 on maturity
[6]

(ii)

Write down the gross premium future loss random variable after 25 years,
immediately before the premium then due is paid.
[3]

(iii)

Calculate the retrospective policy reserve after 25 years, using the same basis
as in (i), but with 4% p.a. interest.
[6]

(iv)

Explain whether the reserve in (iii) would have been smaller, the same or
greater than in (iii) if the office had used the prospective gross premium
reserve, on the same basis.
[3]
[Total 18]

CT5 S20075

14

A life office uses the following three-state model to calculate premiums for a 2-year
accelerated critical illness policy issued to healthy policyholders aged 63 exact at
entry.

C: Critically ill

H: Healthy

In return for a single premium payable at entry, the office will pay benefits of:
100,000 if the policyholder dies from the healthy state;
60,000 if he is diagnosed as having a critical illness;
40,000 if he dies from the critically ill state.
All benefits are payable at the end of the relevant policy year.
Let St represent the state of the policyholder at age 63 + t, so that S0 = H and for t = 1,
2, St = H, C or D. The transition probabilities are defined as follows:
ij
p63
+t = Pr(St+1= j | St = i ).

t

HC
p63
+t

HD
p63
+t

CD
p63
+t

0
1

0.04
0.06

0.02
0.03

0.25
0.33

(i)

## Identify all 6 possible outcomes under this policy.

[3]

(ii)

Calculate the net present value at entry of the benefits assuming a rate of
interest of 10% per annum for each of the outcomes in (i).

[3]

(iii)

## Calculate the probability that each outcome occurs.

[3]

(iv)

Calculate the mean and variance of the present value at entry of the total
benefits per policy.

[5]

(v)

The office expects to sell 10,000 of these policies. The single premium is set
at a level which will ensure that the probability that the office makes a profit is
0.95. Calculate the amount of the single premium, assuming the profit is
normally distributed.
[6]
[Total 20]

END OF PAPER
CT5 S20076

Faculty of Actuaries

Institute of Actuaries

EXAMINATION
September 2007

## Subject CT5 Contingencies

Core Technical
EXAMINERS REPORT

Introduction
The attached subject report has been written by the Principal Examiner with the aim of
helping candidates. The questions and comments are based around Core Reading as the
interpretation of the syllabus to which the examiners are working. They have however given
credit for any alternative approach or interpretation which they consider to be reasonable.
M A Stocker
Chairman of the Board of Examiners
December 2007

Faculty of Actuaries
Institute of Actuaries

## ( tVx + Px )(1 + i ) = qx +t + px +t ( t +1Vx )

(0.468 + 0.017)(1.03) = 0.024 + (0.976)( t +1Vx )

t +1Vx

## p[ x ] = ( 0.5 p[ x ] )( 0.5 p[ x ]+0.5 ) = (1 0.5 q[ x ] )(1 0.5 q[ x ]+0.5 )

= (1 0.33qx )(1 0.5qx ) = (1 0.33(1 px ))(1 0.5(1 px ))
= (0.67 + 0.33 px )(0.5 + 0.5 p x )
= 0.335 + 0.5 px + 0.165 p x 2

(+1, -1, +1, +1, +1, -1, 0, -1, +1, -1, +1, +1)
(+1, -1, +1, +1, +1, -1, 0, -1, 0, 0, +1, +1)
(+1, -1, +1, +1, +1, -1, -1, 0, 0, 0, +1, +1)
(+1, -1, +1, +1, +1, -2, 0, 0, 0, 0, +1, +1)
(+1, -1, +1, +1, -1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, +1, +1)
(+1, -1, +1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, +1, +1)
(0, 0, +1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, +1, +1)

## (Following not necessary for marks but to help explain)

All positives after last negative remain unchanged.
Consider last negative in year 10. The underlying cash flow that year, per policy in
force at start of year 10, is
1
px

= ( NUCF )10 .

( NUCF )10
1+i

## This is funded from year 9 cash flows at a cost of

= ( px +8 )(( NUCF )10 )
per policy in force at the start of year 9.
The change in year 9 cash flow is
( NUCF )9 = ( p x +8 )(( NUCF )10 ) = p x +8 ( NUCF )10

Page 2

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical) September 2007 Examiners Report

and the change in year 9 profit signature becomes
( PS )*9 = 8 px px +8 ( NUCF )10 = 9 p x ( NUCF )10 = 1
resulting in a revised year 9 profit signature of +1-1=0.
The other results follow by repeating this step from year 9 towards year 1 wherever
there are negative values in the profit signature.

## EPV = 1, 000( 1/12 p65

1
1.091/12

1.0039207 + +
+ 2 /12 p65 1.0039207
2 /12 + 3/12 p65
3/12
1.09

1,000
EPV = 1.0039207
( 1/12 p65

1
1.041/12

1.048076
1.09

+ 2 /12 p65

1.09

= 1.04

1
1.042 /12

+ 3/12 p65

1
1.043/12

++

12,000
(12)
= 1.0039207
a65
@ 4%p.a.

s Exc,t mx,t
5

(i)

## Directly standardised mortality rate =

Exc,t

Where:
s

Exc,t : Central exposed to risk in standard population between ages x and x+t

## m x,t : central rate of mortality either observed or from a life table in

population being studied for ages x to x+t
(ii)

The main disadvantage is that it requires age-specific mortality rates, mx,t , for
the group / population in question, and these are often not available
conveniently. To overcome this, indirect standardisation, which relies on
easily available data, can be used.

Page 3

0.5| q75

## = [( 0.5 p75 )( 0.5 q75.5 ) + ( p75 )( 0.5 q76 )]

UDD t qx = (t )qx , 0 t 1

(a)
0.5| q75

0.5 p75

0.5 p75 (1

p75.5 ) =

## = (1 (0.5)(.05) (1 0.05)(1 (0.5)(.06)) = 0.975 (0.95)(0.97) = 0.0535 or

using
0.5| q75

= [( 0.5 p75 )( 0.5 q75.5 ) + ( p75 )( 0.5 q76 )] = [(1 0.5 q75 )( 0.5 q75.5 ) + (1 q75 )( 0.5 q76 )]
(0.5)(.05)

## = [((1 (0.5)(.05))(1(0.5)(.05) ) + (1 .05)(0.5)(.06)] = 0.025 + 0.0285 = 0.0535

(b)

t
t
t
Constant force of mortality t px + r = e = (e ) = ( px ) , 0 r + t 1
0.5| q75

## = (0.95)0.5 [1 (0.95)0.5 (0.94)0.5 ]

= (0.974679)[1 0.944987] = 0.05362

Policy A:
10V

(12)
= 145, 000 A50 + 5, 000( IA)50 ( NP)a50
where NP from

[40]

NP

and

10V

## = {(145,000)(0.32907) + (5,000)(8.55929)}- (3,154.86)(17.444 - 0.458)

= 36,923.15

Policy B:
10V

(12)
= 150, 000 A50 ( NP)a50
where NP from

[40]

Page 4

and

(a)

10V

= 29,342.33

## Class selection: groups with different permanent attributes having different

mortality
e.g. sex, male and female rates differ at all ages

(b)

## Spurious selection: ascribing mortality differences to groups formed by factors

which are not the true causes of these differences. The influence of some
confounding factor has been ignored.
e.g. Regional mortality differences actually explained by the different
composition of occupations in the different regions.

(c)

Time selection: within a population, mortality varies over calendar time. The
effect is usually noticed at all ages and usually rates become lighter over time
e.g. ELT12 male mortality vs. ELT15male

(i)

## EPV = 20, 000a

68:65

f
= 20, 000(a68 + a65
a68:65 )

(ii)

## The office loses money if PV of payments > 320,000

i.e. if 20,000 an >320,000 or an >16.
At 4% p.a., a26 =15.9828 and a27 = 16.3296 so if the office makes the 27th
payment under this annuity, it incurs a loss. It therefore makes a profit so long
as both lives have died before this time, with probability 27 q
68:65

27 68:65

f
m
= ( 27 q68
)( 27 q65
) = (1

m
l95
m
l68

)(1

f
l92
f
l65

1,020.409
3,300.559
= (1 9,440.717
)(1 9,703.708
) = (0.891914)(0.65987) = 0.5885

Page 5

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical) September 2007 Examiners Report

10

(i)

500, 000vTy
g (T ) =
0

(ii)

E[ g (T )] = 500, 000 vt (1 t px ) t p y y +t dt

Ty > Tx
Ty Tx

(iii)

11

(i)

Lifetime of (y). If (y) dies first, no benefit is possible and if (y) dies second,
SA becomes payable immediately. (x)s lifetime is irrelevant in this context.
Premium could be payable for joint lifetime of (x) and (y) but this is shorter
than (y) and therefore we use (y)s lifetime.
v n
X =
0

Kx n
Kx < n

0
Y = K +1
v x

Kx n
Kx < n

XY = 0 for all K x
COV ( X , Y ) = E[ XY ] E[ X ]E[Y ] = 0 ( Ax:n1 )( A1x:n )

(ii)

## VAR( X + Y ) = VAR( X ) + VAR(Y ) + 2COV ( X , Y )

= 2 Ax:n1 ( Ax:n1 ) 2 + 2 A1x:n ( A1x:n ) 2 2( Ax:n1 )( A1x:n )
= { 2 Ax:n1 + 2 A1x:n } {( Ax:n1 ) 2 + ( A1x:n ) 2 + 2( Ax:n1 )( A1x:n )}
= { 2 Ax:n1 + 2 A1x:n } {( Ax:n1 ) + ( A1x:n )}2
= 2 Ax:n ( Ax:n ) 2

12

(i)

## Pa[40]:20 = 75, 000 A[40]:201 = 75, 000v 20 20 p[40]

P(13.930) = (75, 000)(0.45639)(0.94245)
P = 32, 259.45 /13.93 = 2,315.83
Mortality profit = Expected Death Strain Actual Death Strain
DSAR = 0 15V = (75, 000 A55:51 Pa55:5 )
= (75, 000v5 5 p55 Pa55:5 )
= {(75, 000)(0.82193)(0.97169) (2,315.83)(4.585)} = 49, 281.51
EDS = (q54)(500)(-49,281.51) = (0.003976)(500)(-49,281.51) = -97,971.64

Page 6

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical) September 2007 Examiners Report

Mortality Profit = -97,971.64 - (-147,844.53) = 49,872.89 profit.

13

(ii)

## We expected 500q54 = 1.988 deaths. Actual deaths were 3. With pure

endowments, the death strain is negative because no death claim is paid and
there is a release of reserves to the company on death. In this case, more
deaths than expected means this release of reserves is greater than required by
the equation of equilibrium and the company therefore makes a profit.

(i)

Pa30:35 = 200, 600 A30:35 400 A30:351 + (0.02) Pa30:35 0.02 P + 300 + (0.5)( P)

## Expected present value of premiums:

Pa30:35 = 15.150 P

## EPV of benefit and claim expenses:

A30:35 = 0.14246
A30:351 = v35 35 p30 = (0.13011)(0.88877) = 0.11563

## EPV of benefits and claim expenses

= (200,600)(0.14246) - (400)(0.11563)
= 28,577.48 - 46.25 = 28,531.23
EPV of remaining expenses:
[(0.02)(15.150P)] - 0.02P + 0.5P + 300 = 0.783P + 300
Equation of value:
15.150P = 28,531.23 + 300 + 0.783P 14.367P = 28,831.23
P = 2,006.77 per annum = 2,007 p.a.

(ii)

K55 +1

(0.98)(2, 007)(aK +1 )
200, 600v
55
GFLRV =
10
200, 200v (0.98)(2, 007)(a10 )

K55 < 10
K55 10

Page 7

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical) September 2007 Examiners Report

(iii)

25V

retro

1
{0.98Pa30:25
v 25 25 p30

1
}
0.48 P 300 200, 600 A30:25

## v 25 25 p30 = (0.37512)(0.96298) = 0.36123

a30:25 = a30 v 25 25 p30 a55 = 21.834 (0.36123)(15.873) = 16.100
1
A30:25
= A30 v 25 25 p30 A55 = 0.16023 (0.36123)(0.38950) = 0.01953
25V

retro

(iv)

1
{[2, 007][(0.98)(16.100) (0.48)] 300 (200, 600)(0.01953)}
0.36123
1
{30, 703.09 300 3,917.72} = 73,319.96
0.36123

## It would have been larger. At 6% both would be the same but

pro
pro
retro
V@retro
4% < V@6% = V@ 6% < V@ 4%

## since retrospective reserves are accumulating premiums in excess of claims

and expenses and lower interest leads to lower reserves but prospective
reserves are meeting the excess of future benefits claims over future

14

## (i), (ii) and (iii)

Transition probabilities not given explicitly are

Outcome

HH
p63
+t

CC
p63
+t

DD
p63
+t

0.94

0.91

0.75
(not needed)
0.67

1.00
(not needed)
1.00

PV of Cash
flow (000's)

PV Ben

(PV Ben)2

Prob.

Prob.

E[PVB]

E[PVB2]

HH

0.00

HC

60v2

49.59

HD

100v2

82.64

CC

60v

54.55

CD

60v+40v2

87.60

DD

100v

90.91

8264.46

Total

Page 8

79.73554

0.02

## 0.02 1.81818 165.28926

9.56364 677.61492

(iv)

## Mean = (1,000)(9.56364) = 9,563.64

Var.

= (1,000)2{(677.61492 - (9.56364)2}
= 586,151,710 = (24,210.57)2

(v)

## Var.(profit) = Var.(SP - EPV(bens)) = Var.(EPV(bens))

EPV(profit) = (10,000)(SP - 9,563.64) = 10,000SP - 95,636,400
Var.(profit) = Var.(SP - EPV(bens)) = Var.(EPV(bens))
For 10,000 independent policies,
Var.(profit) = (10,000)(586,151,710) = (2,421,057)2
St. Dev.(profit) = 2,421,057
We need SP so Prob.(profit > 0) = 0.95
profit ( EPV (profit) 0 (10, 000SP 95, 636, 400)
Pr .
>
= 0.95
StDev(profit)
2, 421, 057

## Assuming profit is normally distributed

95, 636, 400 10, 000 SP

Pr . z >
= 0.95

= 0.05
2, 421, 057
2, 421, 057

## 95, 636, 400 10, 000 SP

= 1 (0.05) = 1.6449

2, 421, 057

## 95, 636, 400 + (1.6449)(2, 421, 057)

SP =
= 9,961.88 = 9,962
10, 000

## END OF EXAMINERS REPORT

Page 9

Faculty of Actuaries

Institute of Actuaries

EXAMINATION
14 April 2008 (am)

## Subject CT5 Contingencies

Core Technical
Time allowed: Three hours
INSTRUCTIONS TO THE CANDIDATE
1.

Enter all the candidate and examination details as requested on the front of your answer
booklet.

2.

You must not start writing your answers in the booklet until instructed to do so by the
supervisor.

3.

## Mark allocations are shown in brackets.

4.

Attempt all 13 questions, beginning your answer to each question on a separate sheet.

5.

## AT THE END OF THE EXAMINATION

question paper.
In addition to this paper you should have available the 2002 edition of the Formulae
and Tables and your own electronic calculator from the approved list.

CT5 A2008

Faculty of Actuaries
Institute of Actuaries

(a)

Express

(b)

5|10 q40

in words.
[2]

## Describe three types of reversionary bonus that may be given to a with-profits

contract.

[4]

Explain why a life insurance company will need to set up reserves for the endowment
assurance contracts it has sold.
[4]

A life insurance company sells a term assurance and critical illness policy with a 20
year term to a life aged 40 exact. The policy provides a benefit of 50,000 payable
immediately on death or earlier diagnosis of critical illness. No further benefit is paid
in the event of death within the term after a prior critical illness claim has been paid.
The company prices the policy using the following multiple state model:

Healthy (h)
x

## Critically Ill (i)

x

Calculate the expected present value of the benefits under the policy.
Basis: i = 5% per annum
x = 0.005 at all ages
x = 0.006 at all ages
x = 0.003 at all ages

[5]

## A reversionary annuity is payable continuously beginning on the death of a life aged x

to an annuitant aged y.
(a)

Derive an expression for the present value of the reversionary annuity using
random variables for the future lifetimes.

(b)

## Derive an expression for the expected present value of the reversionary

annuity in terms of assurance functions.
[5]

CT5 A20082

A parent who has just died left a bond in their will that provides a single payment of
15,000 in 10 years time. The payment of 15,000 will be shared equally between
the local cats home and such of the parents two sons (currently aged 25 and 30
exact) who are then still alive. Calculate the expected present value of the share due
to the cats home.
Basis: Mortality AM92 Ultimate
Interest 3% per annum

[5]

A defined benefit pension scheme provides a pension on retirement for any reason of
one-sixtieth of final pensionable salary for each year of service (with proportion for
part years of service). Final pensionable salary is average salary over the three years
immediately preceding retirement. Calculate the cost of providing future service
benefits for a new member aged 40 exact as a percentage of salary.
Basis: Example Pension Scheme Table in the Formulae and Tables for Examinations
Handbook
[6]

(i)

Show that
t s qx+ s

(t s )qx
,
(1 sqx )

( 0 s < t 1)

(ii)

[4]

(a)
(b)

## a uniform distribution of deaths

a constant force of mortality

## Basis: Mortality PMA92C20

CT5 A20083

[3]
[Total 7]

A life insurance company prices annuities using a basis which incorporates the
location of the proposing annuitants as an additional rating factor.
(i)

Identify three factors that influence mortality and would cause the insurance
company to adopt location as a rating factor. State which form of selection is
demonstrated by the use of location as a rating factor.
[4]

(ii)

The company has produced the following data in respect of two locations.
Calculate the standardised mortality ratio for each location based on the
standard mortality table ELT15(Males).

Age
60
61
62
63

Location A
Initial exposed Number
to risk
of deaths
100
1
175
3
190
2
210
3

Location B
Initial exposed Number
to risk
of deaths
200
3
150
3
170
3
100
2
[4]
[Total 8]

10

A male life aged 60 exact wants to buy the following benefits within one policy:
(a)

## an annuity of 5,000 per annum payable monthly in arrear to his wife

currently aged 55 exact commencing on his death and for the rest of her life,
and

(b)

## an annuity of 2,000 per annum payable monthly in arrear to his grandson

currently aged 13 exact commencing on the death of either grandparent and
ceasing when the grandson reaches age 21

Basis:
Mortality

Wife PFA92C20
Grandson ignore

Interest

4% per annum
[10]

CT5 A20084

11

## A life insurance company issues a 10-year with-profits endowment policy to a life

then aged 50 exact. Under the policy, the basic sum assured of 75,000 and attaching
bonuses are payable at maturity or immediately on death, if earlier. The company
declares compound reversionary bonuses vesting at the end of each policy year (i.e.
the death benefit does not include any bonus relating to the policy year of death).
(i)

## Show that the annual premium, using the equivalence principle, is

approximately 7,487.
Basis:
Mortality
Interest
Expenses

AM92 Select
6% per annum
1.92308% of the sum assured, compounded and
vesting at the end of each policy year
Initial
350 plus 50% of the annual premium
Renewal 5% of each premium payable in the second and
subsequent years
[7]

At aged 55 exact, immediately before the premium then due and just after the
declared bonus relating to the 5th policy year has been added to the policy, the policy
is still in force.
(ii)

Calculate the reserve for the policy at this point in time using a gross premium
prospective basis assuming the same basis as in (i) above. You should also
assume that the life insurance company has declared a compound bonus
assumption used to derive the premium in (i) above.
[5]
[Total 12]

CT5 A20085

12

## A life assurance company issues the following policies:

10-year term assurances with a sum assured of 50,000 where the death benefit is
payable at the end of the policy year of death

## 10-year pure endowment assurances with a sum assured of 50,000 payable on

maturity

For the term assurance and pure endowment policies, premiums are paid annually in
The company sold 5,000 policies of each type to lives then aged 50 exact. During the
first policy year, there were five actual deaths from each of the two types of policies
written.
(i)

Assuming each type of policy was sold to a distinct set of lives (i.e. no life
buys more than one type of policy).
(a)

Calculate the death strain at risk for each type of policy at the end of
the second policy year of the policies.

(b)

During the second policy year, there were ten deaths from each of the
two types of policy written. Calculate the total mortality profit or loss
to the company during the second policy year.

Basis:
Interest
Mortality
Expenses

4% per annum
AM92 Ultimate for term assurance and pure endowment
Nil
[11]

(ii)

The company now discovers that 5,000 lives had bought one of each type of
policy.
(a)

## State whether the mortality profit or loss calculated would now be

higher, lower or unchanged to that calculated in (i)(b).

(b)

State whether the variance of the benefits paid out by the company in
future years would be higher, lower or unchanged to that in (i). Explain
[3]
[Total 14]

CT5 A20086

13

A life insurance company issues a 4-year unit-linked endowment policy to a life aged
50 exact under which level premiums of 750 are payable yearly in advance
throughout the term of the policy or until earlier death. In the first policy year, 25%
of the premium is allocated to units and 102.5% in the second and subsequent years.
The units are subject to a bid-offer spread of 5% and an annual management charge of
1% of the bid value of units is deducted at the end of each policy year.
Management charges are deducted from the unit fund before death, surrender and
maturity benefits are paid.
If the policyholder dies during the term of the policy, the death benefit of 3,000 or
the bid value of the units, whichever is higher, is payable at the end of the policy year
of death. The policyholder may surrender the policy only at the end of each policy
year. On surrender, the bid value of the units is payable at the end of the policy year
of exit. On maturity, 110% of the bid value of the units is payable.
The company uses the following assumptions in carrying out profit tests of this
contract:
Rate of growth on assets in the unit fund
Rate of interest on non-unit fund cash flows
Mortality
Initial expenses
Renewal expenses
Initial commission
Renewal commission
Risk discount rate

## 6.5% per annum

5.5% per annum
AM92 Select
150
65 per annum on the second and
2.5% of the second and subsequent
8.5% per annum

In addition assume that at the end of each of the first 3 years, 10% of all policies still
in force then surrender.
(i)

Calculate the profit margin for the policy on the assumption that the company
does not zeroise future expected negative cash flows.
[13]

(ii)

## Suppose the company sets up reserves in order to zeroise future expected

negative cash flows.
(a)

Calculate the expected reserve that must be set up at the end of each
policy year, per policy in force at the start of each policy year.

(b)

Calculate the profit margin allowing for the cost of setting up these
reserves.
[5]
[Total 18]

END OF PAPER

CT5 A20087

Faculty of Actuaries

Institute of Actuaries

## Subject CT5 Contingencies

Core Technical
EXAMINERS REPORT
April 2008

Introduction
The attached subject report has been written by the Principal Examiner with the aim of
helping candidates. The questions and comments are based around Core Reading as the
interpretation of the syllabus to which the examiners are working. They have however given
credit for any alternative approach or interpretation which they consider to be reasonable.
M A Stocker
Chairman of the Board of Examiners
June 2008

Faculty of Actuaries
Institute of Actuaries

## Subject CT5 Contingencies Core Technical April 2008 Examiners Report

The probability that an ultimate life age 40 dies between 45 and 55 (all exact)
5|10 q40

## (l45 l55 ) (9801.3123 9557.8179)

=
= 0.024704
l40
9856.2863

The following are three types of guaranteed reversionary bonuses. The bonuses are
usually allocated annually in arrears, following a valuation.
Simple the rate of bonus each year is a percentage of the initial (basic) sum assured
under the policy. The effect is that the sum assured increases linearly over the term of
the policy.
Compound the rate of bonus each year is a percentage of the initial (basic) sum
assured and the bonuses previously added. The effect is that the sum assured increases
exponentially over the term of the policy.
Super compound two compound bonus rates are declared each year. The first rate
(usually the lower) is applied to the initial (basic) sum assured. The second rate is
applied to bonuses previously added. The effect is that the sum assured increases
exponentially over the term of the policy. The sum assured usually increases more
slowly than under a compound allocation in the earlier years and faster in the later
years.
(Note: credit given if special reversionary bonus mentioned)

The expected cost of paying benefits usually increases as the life ages and the
probability of a claim by death increases. In the final year the probability of payment
is large, since the payment will be made if the life survives the term, and for most
contracts the probability of survival is large.
Level premiums received in the early years of a contract are more than enough to pay
the benefits that fall due in those early years, but in the later years, and in particular in
the last year of an endowment assurance policy, the premiums are too small to pay for
the benefits. It is therefore prudent for the premiums that are not required in the early
years of the contract to be set aside, or reserved, to fund the shortfall in the later years
of the contract.
If premiums received that were not required to pay benefits were spent by the
company, perhaps by distributing to shareholders, then later in the contract the
company may not be able to find the money to pay for the excess of the cost of
(Credit given for other valid points)

Page 2

## Subject CT5 Contingencies Core Technical April 2008 Examiners Report

Value =
20

hh
50, 000 vt . t p40
( 40+t + 40+t )dt
0

20

hh
0.008dt
= 50, 000 e ln(1.05)t . t p40
0

40+t
hh
t p40

hh
t p40

= exp(

( s + s )ds )

40
40+t

= exp(
=e

0.008ds )

40
0.008t

Therefore, value =
20

## 50, 000*0.008 e ln(1.05)t .e 0.008t dt

0
20 0.05679t
e
dt
0
.05679t

= 400

= 400*[e

/ .05679]020

= 400*(5.65531 + 17.60873)
= 4781.4

(a)

Define random variables Tx and Ty for the complete duration of life for the
lives aged x and y.
Define a random variable Z for the value of the reversionary annuity, which
has the following definition:
Z = aTy | aTx | if Ty > Tx = 0 otherwise

Z = aTy | aTxy | where Txy is a random variable for the duration to the first
death
Ty

Txy

(1 v ) (1 v
Z=

(b)

E[ Z ] =

Txy

( E[v

Txy

(v

v y)

] E[v y ]) ( A xy A y )
=

Page 3

## The probability that the life age 25 survives 10 years

= 9894.4299 / 9953.6144 = 0.994054
The probability that the life age 30 survives 10 years
= 9856.2863 / 9925.2094 = 0.993056
There are four possible outcomes:
Outcome
Both survive
Only 25 survives
Only 30 survives
Neither survive

## Expression for value

V100.9940540.99305615000/3
V100.994054(1-0.993056)15000/2
V10(1-0.994054)0.99305615000/2
V10(1-0.994054)(1-0.993056)15000

## Value of future service benefits

z

ra

ia

1
( R 40 + R 40 ) 1
(2884260 + 887117)
.S .
= .S .
= 2.5S
s
60
60
25059
D40

s

k
N 40
k
(363573)
.S . s
=
.S .
= k /100*14.5S
100
25059
D40 100

Page 4

value
3672.67
38.52
32.95
0.46

(i)

## The uniform distribution of deaths is consistent with an assumption that

sqx

t s qx+ s

= (1 t s px + s )
= (1

px
)
s px

= (1

(1 t qx )
)
(1 s qx )

= (1

(1 tqx )
)
(1 sq x )

=
(ii)

= s.qx

(t s ).qx
(1 s.qx )
= 0.5q62/(1-0.25q62) = 0.50.00355/(1-0.25*0.00355)
= 0.001777

(a)

0.5q62.25

(b)

## The assumption of a constant force of mortality requires to be

derived from the expression p = e-. p62=0.99645 => 62=0.003556
t s

t s qx+ s

(i)

= 0.001776

## Occupation as some occupations have a regional distribution

Housing as quality of housing will be impacted by occupationally influenced
income levels
Climate different locations having different climates
Using location is a spurious form of class selection as it disguises the
underlying causes

Page 5

(ii)

## Actual deaths (location A) = 9

Actual deaths (location B) = 11
The calculation of the expected deaths is

Age

Standard
Mortality
Rate
0.01392
0.01560
0.01749
0.01965

60
61
62
63
Total

Location A
Number
Initial
of deaths
Exposed
to risk
100
1.4
175
2.7
190
3.3
210
4.1
11.5

Location B
Number
Initial
Exposed of deaths
to risk
200
2.8
150
2.3
170
3.0
100
2.0
10.1

## The SMRs are therefore

Location A = 9/11.5 = 0.78
Location B = 11/10.1 = 1.09

10

(a)

wife
(12)
(12)
value = 5000(a55
a60:55
) = 5000(18.210 14.756) = 17, 270
Note no effect of monthly payments

(b)

grandson
value =
(12)
2000(a8|(12) a60:55:8|
)

a8|(12)

(1 v8 )
i (12)

= 6.7327 x 0.04

0.039285

= 6.855

(12)
(12)
(12)
= a60:55
v8 8 p60 . 8 p55 a68:63
a60:55:8|

## = a60:55 + 11/ 24 v8 8 p60 .8 p55 (a68:63 + 11/ 24)

= (14.756 1) + 11/ 24 v8

9440.717 9775.888
(11.372 1 + 11/ 24)
9826.131 9917.623

= 6.721
Therefore value = 2000(6.855-6.721) = 268

Page 6

11

(i)

## Let P be the annual premium. Then:

Pa[50]:10 = 7.698 P
EPV of benefits:
75, 000
(1.06)1/ 2{q[50] (1 + b)v +1 q[50] (1 + b) 2 v 2
(1 + b)
+.... + 9 q[50] (1 + b)10 v10 } + 75, 00010 p[50] (1 + b)10 v10

where b = 0.0192308
=

75, 000
1
1
@ i ' + 75, 000 10 p[50]
(1.06)1/ 2 A[50]:10
(1 + b)
(1 + i ' )10

75, 000
(1.06)1/ 2 (.68007 .64641) + 75, 000 .64641 = 2,550.091 + 48, 480.75
1.0192308

= 51, 030.84
where i ' =

1.06
1 = 0.04
1+ b

## EPV of other expenses:

.5 P + 350 + 0.05 P (a[50]:10 1) = 0.8349 P + 350
Equation of value gives 7.698P = 51,030.84+ 0.8349P + 350
and P = 7,486.54
(ii)

## EPV of benefits and expenses less EPV of premiums

EPV of benefits and expenses:
=

82, 494.3
1
1
(1.06)1/ 2 A55:5
+ 0.05 Pa55:5
@ i ' + 82, 494.3 5 p55
(1 + b)
(1 + i ' )5

82, 494.3
(1.06)1/ 2 (.82365 .79866) @ i ' + 82, 494.3 0.79866 + 0.05 7486.54 4.423
1.0192308
= 2, 082.43 + 65,884.90 + 1, 655.65 = 69, 622.98
=

Page 7

## Subject CT5 Contingencies Core Technical April 2008 Examiners Report

Pa55:5 = 4.423P = 33,112.97

## => Gross premium prospective reserve = 36,510.00

12

(i)

(a)

Annual premium for pure endowment with 50,000 sum assured given
by:
P PE =

50, 000
50, 000
10 p50 v10 =
0.64601 = 3885.10
a50:10
8.314

Annual premium for term assurance with 50,000 sum assured given
by:
PTA = P EA P PE =
=

a50:10

P PE

3885.10 = 205.83
8.314

## Reserves at the end of the second year:

for pure endowment with 50,000 sum assured given by:
2V

PE

2V

TA

= 2V EA 2V PE

## = 50, 000 A52:8 (3885.1 + 205.83)a52:8 8276.96

= 50, 000 0.73424 4090.93 6.91 8276.96
= 166.71

Sums at risk:
Pure endowment: DSAR = 0 8,276.96 = 8,276.96
Term assurance: DSAR = 50,000 166.71 = 49,833.29

Page 8

(b)

## Mortality profit = EDS ADS

For term assurance

## EDS = 4995 q51 49,833.29 = 4995 .002809 49,833.29 = 699, 208.65

ADS = 10 49,833.29 = 498,332.90

## mortality profit = 200,875.75

For pure endowment
EDS = 4995 q51 8, 276.96 = 4995 .002809 8, 276.96 = 116,133.65
ADS = 10 8, 276.96 = 82, 769.60

## mortality profit = 33,364.05

Hence, total mortality profit = 167,511.70
(ii)

(a)

The actual mortality profit would remain as that calculated in (i) (b).

(b)

The variance of the benefits would be lower than that calculated in (i).
In this case, the company would not pay out benefits under both the PE
and the TA but will definitely pay out one of the benefits. Under the
scenario in (i), the company could pay out all the benefits (if all the TA
policyholders die and the PE policyholders survive). Alternatively,
they could pay out no benefits at all (if all the TA policyholders
survive and the PE policyholders immediately die).

Page 9

13

750.00

25.0%

## Risk discount rate

8.5%

Allocation % (2nd yr +)

Interest on
investments

6.5%

Man charge

1.0%

Interest on sterling
provisions

5.5%

5.0%

Minimum death
benefit

Initial expense

3000.00

% prm

Total

150

10.0%

225

65

2.5%

83.75

Renewal expense
(i)

Page 10

x

qxd

qxs

50

0.001971

0.1

51

0.002732

0.1

52

0.003152

0.1

53

0.003539

0.0

(aq) dx

(aq) sx

(ap)

t 1 ( ap )

50

0.001971

0.09980

0.898226

1.000000

51

0.002732

0.09973

0.897541

0.898226

52

0.003152

0.09968

0.897163

0.806195

53

0.003539

0.00000

0.996461

0.723288

102.50%

## Subject CT5 Contingencies Core Technical April 2008 Examiners Report

Unit fund (per policy at start of year)
yr 1

yr 2

yr 3

yr 4

0.000

187.806

968.018

1790.635

alloc

187.500

768.750

768.750

768.750

B/O

9.375

38.4375

38.4375

38.4375

11.578

59.678

110.392

163.862

1.897

9.778

18.087

26.848

187.806

968.018

1790.635

2657.961

value of units at
start of year

interest
management
charge
value of units at
year end

yr 1

yr 2

yr 3

yr 4

unallocated

562.500

18.750

18.750

18.750

9.375

38.4375

38.4375

38.4375

225.000

83.750

83.750

83.750

19.078

3.523

3.523

3.523

man charge

1.897

9.778

18.087

26.848

extra death
benefit

5.543

5.551

3.812

1.210

0.000

0.000

0.000

264.855

362.307

63.359

53.311

306.804

expenses
interest

Extra maturity
benefit
end of year
cashflow

Page 11

probability in
force
discount factor

0.898226

0.806195

0.723288

0.921659

0.849455

0.782908

0.721574

620.894

513.620

424.701

expected p.v. of
profit

91.809

signature

750.000

expected p.v. of

2309.215

profit
margin

3.98%
(ii)

(a)

## To calculate the expected provisions at the end of each year we have

(utilising the end of year cashflow figures and decrement tables in (i)
above):
306.804
= 290.809
1.055
2V 1.055 ( ap )52 3V = 53.311 2V = 297.833

3V

1V

## 1.055 (ap )51 2V = 63.359 1V = 313.437

These need to be adjusted as the question asks for the values in respect
of the beginning of the year. Thus we have:
Year 3 290.809(ap)52 = 260.903
Year 2 297.833(ap)51 = 267.318
Year 1 313.437(ap)50 = 281.538
(b)

Based on the expected provisions calculated in (a) above, the cash flow
for years 2, 3 and 4 will be zeroised whilst year 1 will become:
362.307 281.538 = 80.769

Page 12

## Subject CT5 Contingencies Core Technical April 2008 Examiners Report

Hence the table below can now be completed for the revised profit
margin.
revised end of
year cash flow
probability in
force
discount factor

80.769

0.898226

0.806195

0.723288

0.921659

0.849455

0.782908

0.721574

expected p.v. of
profit

74.442

profit margin

3.22%

## END OF EXAMINERS REPORT

Page 13

Faculty of Actuaries

Institute of Actuaries

EXAMINATION
22 September 2008 (am)

## Subject CT5 Contingencies

Core Technical
Time allowed: Three hours
INSTRUCTIONS TO THE CANDIDATE
1.

Enter all the candidate and examination details as requested on the front of your answer
booklet.

2.

You must not start writing your answers in the booklet until instructed to do so by the
supervisor.

3.

## Mark allocations are shown in brackets.

4.

Attempt all 14 questions, beginning your answer to each question on a separate sheet.

5.

## AT THE END OF THE EXAMINATION

question paper.
In addition to this paper you should have available the 2002 edition of the Formulae
and Tables and your own electronic calculator from the approved list.

CT5 S2008

Faculty of Actuaries
Institute of Actuaries

Calculate (to the nearest integer) the lower quartile of the complete future lifetime of a
person aged 25 exact who is subject to mortality according to ELT15 (Females). [3]

The profit signature of a 3-year assurance contract issued to a life aged 57 exact, with a
premium payable at the start of each year of 500 is (250, 150, 200).
Calculate the profit margin of the contract.
Basis:
Mortality
AM92 Ultimate
Lapses
None
Risk discount rate 12% per annum

In order to value the benefits in a final salary pension scheme as at 1 January 2008, a
s
salary scale, s x , has been defined so that x +t is the ratio of a members total
sx
earnings between ages x + t and x + t + 1 to the members total earnings between ages
x and x + 1. Salary increases take place on 1 July every year. One member, whose
date of birth is 1 April 1961, has an annual salary rate of 75,000 on the valuation
date.
Write down an expression for the members expected earnings during 2008.

[3]

[3]

Write down an alternative expression for each of the following statements. Use
notation as set out in the International Actuarial Notation section of the Formulae
and Tables for Examinations where appropriate and express your answer as concisely
as possible.
(i)

Probability[maximum{Tx, Ty} n]

[1]

(ii)

## E[ g ( K x )] where g ( K x ) = v K x +1 for K x < n and 0 for K x n

[1]

(iii)

Probability{n < Tx m}

[1]

(iv)

Limit dt 0

(v)

E[aminimum( n1, K

1
Probability[minimum{Tx , Ty } t + dt | Tx > t , Ty > t ]
dt
x)

+ 1]

[1]
[1]
[Total 5]

CT5 S20082

(i)

## Explain what is meant by sx : n

[2]

(ii)

Calculate s50:20 .

[3]

Basis:
Mortality:
Interest:

AM92 Ultimate
4% per annum
[Total 5]

A select life aged 62 exact purchases a 3-year endowment assurance with sum assured
100,000. Premiums of 30,000 are payable annually in advance throughout the term
of the policy or until earlier death. The death benefit is payable at the end of the
policy year of death.
Calculate the expected value of the present value of the profit or loss to the office on
the contract, using the following basis:
Interest
Expenses
Mortality

## 7.5% per annum

Ignore
1
q[ x t ]+t =
qx for all x and for t = 0, 1 or 2.
4t
q62 = 0.018, q63 = 0.02 and q64 = 0.022
[6]

## A certain population is subject to three modes of decrement: , and .

(i)

Write down an expression for (aq)x in terms of the single decrement table
probabilities qx , qx , and qx , assuming each of the three modes of decrement
is uniformly distributed over the year of age x to x + 1 in the corresponding
single decrement table.
[2]

(ii)

## Suppose now that in the single decrement table , t px = 1 t 2 qx (0 t 1),

while decrements and remain uniformly distributed. Derive a revised
expression for (aq )x in terms of the single decrement table probabilities
qx , qx , and qx .

CT5 S20083

[4]
[Total 6]

A life insurance company sells 1,000 whole life annuities on 1 January 2007 to
policyholders aged 65 exact. Each annuity is for 25,000 payable annually in arrear.
5 annuitants die during 2007.
The office holds reserves using the following basis:

Mortality
Interest

PFA92C20
4% per annum

(i)

Calculate the profit or loss from mortality for this group for the year ending
31 December 2007.
[4]

(ii)

## Explain why the mortality profit or loss has arisen.

[2]
[Total 6]

A new member aged 35 exact, expecting to earn 40,000 in the next 12 months, has
just joined a pension scheme. The scheme provides a pension on retirement for any
reason of 1/60th of final pensionable salary for each year of service, with fractions
counting proportionately. Final pensionable salary is defined as the average salary over
the three years prior to retirement.
Members contribute a percentage of salary, the rate depending on age. Those under
age 50 contribute 4% and those age 50 exact and over contribute 5%.
The employer contributes a constant multiple of members contributions to meet
exactly the expected cost of pension benefits.
Calculate the multiple needed to meet this new members benefits.

All elements of the valuation basis are contained in the Example Pension Scheme
Table in the Formulae and Tables for Examinations.
[6]

10

Calculate the variance of the present value of benefits under an annuity payable to a
life aged 35 exact. The annuity has payments of 1 per annum payable continuously
for life.
Basis:
Mortality
Interest

11

= 0.02 throughout
= 0.05

[7]

A life insurance company has reviewed its mortality experience. For each age, it has
pooled all the deaths and corresponding exposures from its entire portfolio over the
previous ten years, and derived a single mortality table.
List three types of selection which might be likely to produce heterogeneity in this
particular investigation. In each case, explain the nature of the heterogeneity and how it
could be caused, and state how the heterogeneity could be reduced.
[9]

CT5 S20084

12

## A life insurance company is considering selling with-profit endowment policies with

a term of twenty years and initial sum assured of 100,000. Death benefits are payable
at the end of the policy year of death. Bonuses will vest at the end of each policy year.
The company is considering three different bonus structures:

(1)

(2)

(3)

## Super compound bonuses where the original sum assured receives a

bonus of 3% each year and all previous bonuses receive an additional
bonus of 6% each year.

(i)

## Calculate the amount payable at maturity under the three structures.

(ii)

Calculate the expected value of benefits under structure (2) for an individual
aged 45 exact at the start, using the following basis:
Interest
Mortality
Expenses

[4]

8% per annum
AM92 Select
ignore
[4]

(iii)

Calculate the expected value of benefits, using the same policy and basis as in
(ii) but reflecting the following changes:
(a)

Bonuses vest at the start of each policy year (the death benefit is
payable at the end of the policy year of death).

(b)

## The death benefit is payable immediately on death (bonuses vest at the

end of each policy year).

(c)

## The death benefit is payable immediately on death, and bonuses vest

continuously.
[3]
[Total 11]

CT5 S20085

13

Two lives, a female aged 60 exact and a male aged 65 exact, purchase a policy with
the following benefits:
(i)

an annuity deferred ten years, with 20,000 payable annually in advance for as
long as either of them is alive

(ii)

a lump sum of 100,000 payable at the end of the policy year of the first death,
should this occur during the deferred period

Level premiums are payable monthly in advance throughout the deferred period or
until earlier payment of the death benefit.
Basis:

Mortality

Female
Male

Interest

4% per annum

Expenses

Initial
Renewal

PFA92C20
PMA92C20

350
2.5% of each monthly premium excluding the first.
[14]

14

A life insurance company issues a decreasing term assurance policy to a life aged 55
exact. The death benefit, which is payable immediately on death, is 100,000 in the
first policy year, 90,000 in the second year thereafter reducing by 10,000 each year
until the benefit is 10,000 in the 10th year, with cover ceasing at age 65.
The policy is paid for by level annual premiums payable in advance for 10 years,
ceasing on earlier death.
The life office uses the following basis for calculating premiums and reserves:

Basis:
Mortality

AM92 Select

Interest

4% per annum

Expenses

Initial

Renewal

## 5% of all premiums excluding the first and 50*(1.04)t

on each policy anniversary where t is the exact duration
of the policy on the anniversary

Claim

## 200*(1.04)u where u is the exact duration of the policy

at death, measured in years with fractions counting

CT5 S20086

(i)

Write down the gross premium future loss random variable at the start of the
policy. Use P for the annual premium.
[4]

(ii)

(iii)

## Calculate the gross premium prospective reserve after 9 years.

END OF PAPER

CT5 S20087

[10]
[2]
[Total 16]

Faculty of Actuaries

Institute of Actuaries

## Subject CT5 Contingencies

Core Technical
EXAMINERS REPORT
September 2008

Introduction
The attached subject report has been written by the Principal Examiner with the aim of
helping candidates. The questions and comments are based around Core Reading as the
interpretation of the syllabus to which the examiners are working. They have however given
credit for any alternative approach or interpretation which they consider to be reasonable.

R D Muckart
Chairman of the Board of Examiners
November 2008

Faculty of Actuaries
Institute of Actuaries

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical) September 2008 Examiners Report

Let t equal future lifetime. Lower quartile means that 25% of people have future
t q25

= 0.25

l25+t
= 0.75
l25

l25+t
= 0.75 l25+t = 74, 098
98, 797

## l73 = 74, 287 l74 = 72, 048,

So 7325 = 48 is lower quartile future lifetime to nearest integer.

## Profit margin = (EPV profit / EPV premiums)

EPV profit = -250v + 150v2 + 200v3 = 38.72
EPV premiums = 500(1 + 1p57v + 2p57v2) = 500(1 + 0.8878125 + 0.7876546)
= 1,337.73
Profit margin = 38.72/1,337.37 = 2.89%

## 75,000 represents earnings from 1/7/2007 to 1/7/2008

i.e. from age 46.25 to 47.25
2008 is the period from age 46.75 to 47.75
2008 expected earnings = 75, 000

s46.75
s46.25

(s46 + 3s47) is a satisfactory alternative to the numerator above and (3s46 + s47) a
satisfactory alternative for the denominator.
Alternative: 75, 000{0.5 + 0.5(

Page 2

s47.25
)}
s46.25

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical) September 2008 Examiners Report

(i)

n q xy

(ii)

A1x:n

(iii)

n|m n q x

(iv)

x +t: y +t or x +t + y +t

(v)

ax:n

It is the accumulation of an n-year annuity due i.e. the expected fund per survivor
after n years, from a group of people, initially aged x, who each put 1 at the start of
each of the n years, if they are still alive, into a fund earning interest at rate i per
annum.
a50:20

s50:20 =
=

v 20 20 p50
1
v

20

20 p50

## (a50 v 20 20 p50 a70 )

1
(17.444) 10.375 = 35.715
(0.45639)(0.82928)

6
x

62
63
64

q[x]

q[x-1]+1

q[x-2]+2

q[x-3]+3

0.009
0.01
0.011

0.018
0.02
0.022

0.006
0.0045
0.005 0.006667
0.0055 0.007333

qx

0.018
0.02
0.022

## EPV premiums = 30,000{1 + v*p[62] + v2* p[62]*p[62]+1}

= 30,000{1 + v*(1 - 0.0045) + v2*(1 - 0.0045)*(1 - 0.006667)}
= (30,000)(2.781742) = 83,452.27
EPV benefits = 100,000{v*q[62] + v2*p[62]*q[62]+1 + v3*p[62]*p[62]+1*(q[62]+2
+ p[62]+2)} = 80,592.50
EPV profit

Page 3

Year
1
2
3

Interest

30,000.00
30,000.00
30,000.00

2,250.00
2,250.00
2,250.00

Death Cost
450.00
666.67
1,100.00

Maturity Cost

Profit Vector

Profit Signature

98,900.00

31,800.00
31,583.33
-67,750.00

31,800.00
31,441.21
66,995.49

NPV
29,581.40
27,207.10
53,928.73
2,859.77

(i)

## (aq )x = q x {1 12 (qx + q x ) + 13 (qx q x )}

(ii)

(aq)x

= t px t px t p x x +t dt
0

px = 1 t 2 qx t px x +t =

t p x = 2tq x
dt

(aq)x

t px t

px t

p x x +t dt

0

## = qx {2t 2t 2 (qx + qx ) + 2t 3 (qx qx )}1dt

0

2
2
= qx {1 (qx + qx ) + (qx q x )}
3
4

(i)

## The Death Strain at risk per policy is

[0 (payment due 31.12 + reserve @ 31.12] = - 25, 000a66
Expected DS =
q65 *1, 000* 25, 000a66 = (0.004681)(25, 000, 000)(14.494) = 1, 696,160
Actual DS = 5* 25, 000a66 = 1,811, 750
Profit = EDS ADS = -1,696,160 + 1,811,750 = 115,590 profit

(ii)

Page 4

We expected 4.681 deaths and had more than this with 5. There is no death
benefit, just a release of reserves on death, so more deaths than expected leads
to profit.

ra

ia

## 40, 000 R35 + R35 40, 000 3,524,390 + 1,187, 407

=
= 98, 730
EPV of benefits:
s
60
60
31,816
D35

PV of contribution:
s

40, 000

(0.04) N 35 + (0.01) N 50
s

D35

= 40, 000

= 27,345
31,816

## Employers proportion = (98,730-27345)/27,345 = 2.61 times employees

contribution.

10

Variance of aT =

Ax ( Ax )2
2

Ax = e

t p x x +t dt = e

t t

dt = et (+ ) dt =

(e t ) =
(0 1)
0
+
+

0.02

=
=
+ 0.07

Similarly, A x = e 2t t px x +t dt = et et dt =
2

Variance of aT

0.02
=
+ 2 0.12

0.02 0.02 2
)
(
= 0.12 0.07
= 34.01
0.052

Alternatively
Variance of X = E[ X 2 ] {E[ X ]}2
Here X=

E[ X ] =
0

Tx |

1 e Tx

1 e t
1 et t
1
p

dt
=
e

dt
=
(et ) (e (+ )t )dt
t x x +t

= {(e
)(
)(e
)} = {(0 (1)) (
)(0 (1))}
0
0

+
1
1 +
1
1

)} = {
}=
= {1 (
=
= 14.2857

+
+
+ 0.07
t

( + )t

Page 5

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical) September 2008 Examiners Report

1 e t 2
1 2et + e2t t
E[ X ] = (
) t px x +t dt = (
)e dt

2
2

(e

)(e(+ )t ) + (
)(e (2+ )t )}
0
0
0
2 +
+

)(0 (1)) + (
)(0 (1))}
= 2 {(0 (1)) 2(
2 +
+

1
2
1
0.04 0.02

)+(
)} =
{1
} = 238.0952
= 2 {1 (

+
2 +
0.07 0.12
+
0.052

{(e t ) (2)(

## Variance = 238.0952-(14.2857)2 = 34.01

11

Class selection

People with same age definition will have different underlying mortality due to
particular permanent attributes, e.g. sex. The existence of such classes would be
certainly found in these data: e.g. male / female smoker / non-smoker, people having
different occupational and/or social backgrounds, etc.
Solution would be to subdivide the data according to the nature of the attribute.
Time selection

Where mortality is changing over calendar time, people of the same age could
experience different levels of mortality at different times. This might well be a
problem here, as data from as much as ten years apart are being combined.
Solution would be to subdivide the data into shorter time periods.
Temporary initial selection

## Mortality changes with policy duration and the combination of subgroups of

policyholders with different durations into a single sample will cause heterogeneity.
Lives accepted for insurance have passed a medical screening process. The longer that
has elapsed since screening (i.e. since entry) the greater the proportion of lives who
may have developed impairments since the screening date and hence the higher the
mortality. Mortality rates would then be expected to rise with policy duration, and
hence result in heterogeneous data.
The solution would be to perform a select mortality investigation, that is one in which
the data are subdivided by policy duration as well as by age.

Page 6

Self selection

## By purchasing a particular product type, policyholders are putting themselves in a

particular group. People expecting lighter than normal mortality might purchase
annuities and experience better mortality rates than, for example, term assurance
The solution would be to subdivide the data by product type.

12

(i)

(ii)

(a)

## 100,000{1 + (20)(0.045)) = 190,000

(b)

100,000(1.0384615)20 = 212,720

(c)

6%
} = 210,357
100,000{1 + 0.03 s20

1
[45]:20

100, 000 A

1.08
1 = 4%
1.0384615

## = 100,000*(0.45639)(8,821.2612/9,798.0837) = 0.41089*100,000 = 41,089

EPV death benefits:
100, 000 1
100, 000
A[45]:20 @ 4% =
( A[45]:20 A[45]:201 )
1.0384615
1.0384615
=

100, 000
(0.46982 0.41089)
1.0384615

## = (100,000)(0.05893 / 1.0384615) = 0.05675*100,000 = 5,675

EPV total benefits = 41,089 + 5,675 = 46,764
(iii)

## Making appropriate adjustments to (ii)

(a)

1.0384615*5,675+41,089 = 46,982

(b)

(1.08)0.5*5,675+41,089 = 46,987

(c)

Page 7

## Alternatively, just starting a fresh for each condition:

13

(a)

A[45]:20| at 4%

(c)

1
A[45]:20| at 4% = A[45]:20| + A[45]:20|1 = {(1.04)0.5 A[45]:20|
} + A[45]:20|1

## Let P be the monthly premium

12 Pa(12)

65:60:10

= 350 + 0.025P(12a(12)

65:60:10

1
1) + 100, 000 AP

65:60:10

## a65:60:10 = a65:60 v10 10 p65 10 p60 a75:70

= 12.682 (0.67556)(0.87120)(0.95372)(8.357)
= 12.682 (0.56131)8.357 = 7.991
a(12)

65:60:10

11
(1 v10 10 p65 10 p60 )
24
= 7.991 (0.458)(1 0.56131)
= a65:60:10

1
AP

65:60:10

## = A65:60:10 v10 10 p65 10 p60 = 1 da65:60:10 v10 10 p65 10 p60

= 1

0.04
(7.991) 0.56131 = 0.13134
1.04

1 10|
AP
= A65:60 v10 10 p65 10 p60 A75:70 = 1 da65:60 v10 10 p65 10 p60 (1 da75:70 )

65:60

0.04
0.04
(12.682) (0.67556)(0.87120)(0.95372)(1
8.357
1.04
1.04
= 0.51223 0.38089 = 0.13134
= 1

or

65:60
10| a

= v10 10 p65 10 p60 a75:70 + v10 10 p65 (1 10 p60 )a75 + v10 (1 10 p65 ) 10 p60 a70
= v10 10 p65 10 p60 (a75 + a70 a75:70 ) + v10 10 p65 (1 10 p60 )a75 + v10 (1 10 p65 ) 10 p60 a70
= (0.67556)(0.87120)(0.95372)(9.456 + 12.934 8.357)
+(0.67556)(0.87120)(1 0.95372)(9.456)
+(0.67556)(1 0.87120)(0.95372)(12.934)
= 7.877 + 0.258 + 1.073 = 9.208

Page 8

or
65:60
10| a

## = a65:60 a65:60:10| = (a65 + a60 a65:60 ) (a65:10| + a60:10| a65:60:10| )

= (a65 + a60 a65:60 ) (a65 v10 10 p65a75 + a60 v10 10 p60 a70 a65:60 v10 10 p65:60 a75:70
= 13.666 + 16.652 12.682
{13.666 (0.67556)(0.87120)(9.456)}
{16.652 (0.67556)(0.95372)(12.934)}
+{12.682 (0.67556)(0.87120)(0.95372)(8.357)
= 17.636 8.101 8.319 + 7.991 = 17.636 8.429 = 9.207

## 12 P(7.790) = 350 + 0.025 P(12*7.790 1) + 100, 000(0.13134) + 20, 000*9.208

P(93.480 2.312) = 350 + 13,134 + 184,160
P(91.168) = 197, 644 P = 2,168 per month

14

(i)

GFLRV=
4%
300 + 0.25 P + 0.05 P * amin(
K

[55] ,9)

(ii)

T[55]

0%
+ 50* amin(
K

[55] ,9)

4%
P * amin(
K

[55] +1,10)

## (100, 000 10, 000* K[55] ) + 200

4%
4%
0%
P * a[55]:10
= 250 + 0.20 P + 0.05 P * a[55]:10
+ 50a[55]:10

+110, 000 A

[55]:10

## 10, 000( I A)1[55]:10 + 200* 10 q[55]

4%
a[55]:10
= 8.228
0%
a[55]:10
= (1 + e[55] ) 10 p[55] (1 + e65 )

8,821.2612
= 26.037
17.645
9,545.9929
= 26.037 (0.92408)17.645
= 9.732
1

[55]:10

## = (1.04)0.5 ( A[55]10 v10 10 p[55] )

= (1.04)0.5 (0.68354 0.67556*0.92408)
= 0.06044

Page 9

## ( I A)1[55]:10 = (1.04)0.5[( IA)[55] v10 10 p[55] (10 A65 + ( IA)65 ]

= (1.04)0.5 [8.58908 0.67556*0.92408(10*0.52786 + 7.89442)]
= 0.37278

P *8.228
= 250 + 0.20 P + 0.05 P *8.228 + 50*9.732 + 110, 000*0.06044
10, 000*0.37278 + 200*(1 0.92408)
P *7.6166 = 250 + 486.60 + 6, 648.40 3, 727.80 + 15.18
P = 3, 672.38 / 7.6166 = 482.15
(iii)

9V

## = (0.012716)(0.980581)[10, 000 + 290.30] [0.95* 482.15 71.17]

128.31 386.87 = 258.56

## END OF EXAMINERS REPORT

Page 10

Faculty of Actuaries

Institute of Actuaries

EXAMINATION
24 April 2009 (am)

## Subject CT5 Contingencies

Core Technical
Time allowed: Three hours
INSTRUCTIONS TO THE CANDIDATE
1.

Enter all the candidate and examination details as requested on the front of your answer
booklet.

2.

You must not start writing your answers in the booklet until instructed to do so by the
supervisor.

3.

## Mark allocations are shown in brackets.

4.

Attempt all 14 questions, beginning your answer to each question on a separate sheet.

5.

## AT THE END OF THE EXAMINATION

question paper.
In addition to this paper you should have available the 2002 edition of the Formulae
and Tables and your own electronic calculator from the approved list.

CT5 A2009

Faculty of Actuaries
Institute of Actuaries

## Define and calculate 5|10q[40]+1.

Basis: AM92 Select

(i)

A40:20

[3]

(ii)

A40:20

[1]

## Basis: lx = 110 x (for x 110).

Interest 4% per annum.

[4]

[Total 4]

## Employee contributions to a pension fund are paid continuously at the rate of 4% of

salary per annum after a fixed deduction from salary of 5,000 per annum paid
continuously.
Determine an expression using commutation functions for the present value of the
future contributions by a member aged x with salary S in the previous 12 months.
[4]

Explain, in the context of the lapse rates of life insurance policies, what is meant
by:
(a)
(b)
(c)

class selection
temporary initial selection
time selection

## Give an example in each case.

1 1
A population is subject to two modes of decrement and where qx = + qx .
3 4

## Derive from first principles (aq) x .

State clearly any assumptions you make.

[5]

[5]

The random variable Txy represents the time to failure of the joint-life status (x y).
(x) is subject to a constant force of mortality of 0.02 and (y) is subject to a
constant force of mortality of 0.03. (x) and (y) are independent with respect to
mortality.
Calculate the value of E[Txy].

CT5 A20092

[5]

A life insurance company issues a special annuity contract to a male life aged 70
exact and a female life aged 60 exact. Annuity payments are due on the first day
of the month.
Under the contract an annuity of 50,000 per annum is payable monthly to the female
life, provided that she survives at least 5 years longer than the male life. The annuity
commences on the monthly policy anniversary next following the fifth anniversary
of the death of the male life and is payable for the balance of the female's lifetime.
Calculate the single premium required for the contract.
Basis: Mortality: PMA92C20 for males, PFA92C20 for females
Interest: 4% per annum
Expenses: Nil

[5]

(i)

## Describe three distinct methods of averaging salary that might be defined in

the scheme rules of a pension fund.
[3]

(ii)

## Define sx and zx in the context of a pension fund.

[2]
[Total 5]

A life insurance company sells a policy with a 10 year term to a healthy life aged 55
exact. The policy provides the following benefits:

## 25,000 payable immediately on death

1,000 per annum payable continuously during illness

The company prices the policy using the following multiple state model:
Able (a)

Ill (i)

x
x

x

Give a formula for the expected present value of the benefits under the policy.

CT5 A20093

[5]

10

A life insurance company issues a term assurance policy for a term of 10 years to two
lives whose ages are x and y, in return for the payment of a single premium. The
following benefits are payable under the contract:

In the event of either of the lives dying within 10 years, a sum assured of
100,000 is payable immediately on the first death if it is the life aged x or
50,000 if the life aged y.

In the event of the second death within the remainder of the 10 year term, a
further sum assured of twice the original claim previously paid is payable
immediately on the second death.

Basis: Mortality: x = 0.02 constant throughout life and y = 0.03 constant
throughout life
Interest: = 4% per annum
Expenses: Nil
[8]

11

## 20-year endowment assurance with a sum assured of 75,000 payable at maturity

or at the end of the policy year of death if earlier. Level premiums for this
contract are paid annually in advance.

## 20-year single premium temporary immediate annuity with an annual benefit

On 1 January 2001, the company sold 5,000 endowment assurance policies and 2,500
temporary immediate annuity policies, all to lives aged 45 exact.
(i)

Calculate the death strain at risk for each type of policy during 2008.
Basis: Mortality: AM92 Select
Interest:
4% per annum
Expenses: Nil
[4]

During the first seven policy years, there were 65 deaths from the endowment
assurance policies and 30 deaths from the temporary immediate annuity policies.
During 2008, there were 10 deaths from the endowment assurance policies and 5
deaths from the temporary immediate annuity policies.
(ii)

Calculate the total mortality profit or loss to the company during 2008 using
the basis in (i) above.
[5]
[Total 9]

CT5 A20094

12

(i)

Explain the terms unit fund and non-unit fund in the context of a unitlinked life assurance contract.
[4]

(ii)

Explain why a life insurance company might need to set up reserves in order
to zeroise future expected negative cashflows in respect of a unit-linked life
assurance contract.
[2]

(iii)

## A life insurance company issues 4-year unit-linked contracts to a male lives

aged 50 exact. The following non-unit fund cash flows, NUCFt, (t = 1, 2, 3, 4)
are obtained at the end of each year t per contract in force at the start of the
year t:
Year t
NUCFt

1
375.4

2
152.0

3
136.2

4
118.0

The rate of interest earned on non-unit reserves is 5.5% per annum and
mortality follows the AM92 Select table.
Calculate the reserves required at times t = 1, 2 and 3 in order to zeroise future
negative cash flows.
[4]
[Total 10]

13

A life insurance company issues a 3-year savings contract to unmarried male lives
that offers the following benefits:

on surrender.

## On marriage during the 3 years, a return of premiums paid accumulated with

compound interest at 4% per annum, payable immediately on marriage.

## The contract ceases on payment of any benefit.

Calculate the level premium payable annually in advance for this contract for a life
aged 40 exact.
Basis: Independent rate of mortality
Independent rate of surrender
Independent rate of marriage
Interest
Expenses

AM92 Ultimate
10% per annum
5% per annum
5% per annum
[12]

CT5 A20095

14

A life insurance company issues a 5-year with profits endowment assurance policy to
a life aged 60 exact. The policy has a basic sum assured of 10,000. Simple
reversionary bonuses are added at the start of each year, including the first. The sum
assured (together with any bonuses attaching) is payable at maturity or at the end of
year of death, if earlier. Level premiums are payable annually in advance throughout
the term of the policy.
(i)

## Show that the annual premium is approximately 2,476.

Basis: Mortality:
Interest:
Initial expenses:
Renewal expenses:
Bonus Rates:

AM92 Select
6% per annum
5% of the second and subsequent premiums
A simple reversionary bonus will declared each
year at a rate of 4% per annum
[5]

The office holds net premium reserves using a rate of interest of 4% per annum and
AM92 Ultimate mortality.
In order to profit test this policy, the company assumes that it will earn interest at 7%
per annum on its funds, mortality follows the AM92 Ultimate table and expenses and
(ii)

Calculate the expected profit margin on this policy using a risk discount rate
of 9% per annum.
[14]
[Total 19]

END OF PAPER

CT5 A20096

Faculty of Actuaries

Institute of Actuaries

## Subject CT5 Contingencies

Core Technical
EXAMINERS REPORT
April 2009

Introduction
The attached subject report has been written by the Principal Examiner with the aim of
helping candidates. The questions and comments are based around Core Reading as the
interpretation of the syllabus to which the examiners are working. They have however given
credit for any alternative approach or interpretation which they consider to be reasonable.
R D Muckart
Chairman of the Board of Examiners
June 2009

Where relevant, comments for individual questions are given after each of the solutions that
follow.

Faculty of Actuaries
Institute of Actuaries

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical) April 2009 Examiners Report)

510

q[40]+1 is the probability that a life now aged 41 exact and at the beginning of the

second year of selection will die between the ages of 46 and 56 both exact.
Value is:

## (l46 l56 ) / l[40]+1

= (9786.9534 9515.104) / 9846.5384
= 0.02761

lx = 110 x
dx = lx lx + 1
= (110 x) (110 x 1)
= 1 for all x
(i)

A1

40:20

19

= vt +1 * d 40 + t / l 40

19

= vt +1 / l 40

= a20 / l 40
= 13.5903 / (110 40)
= 0.19415

(ii)

A40:20 = A 1

40:20

+ v 20 * l60 / l40

= 0.52014

## Assuming contributions are payable continuously we make the approximation that

they are payable on average half-way through the year. The present value of
contributions in the year t to t + 1 is:
s
v x +t +0.5 l x +t +0.5
(0.04). S x +t 5000 .
.
lx
vx
s x 1

Page 2

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical) April 2009 Examiners Report)

Define the following parameters and commutation functions:
s x +t
represents the ratio of a members earnings in the year of age x+ t to x+t+1 to
sx
their earnings in the year x to x+1.
Dx +t = v x +t l x +t
D x +t = v x +t +0.5l x +t +0.5
s

Dx = s x 1v xl x

D x +t = s x +t v x +t +0.5lx +t +0.5

Nx =
s

t = NRA x 1

Nx =

D x +t

t =0
t = NRA x 1

D x +t

t =0

sN
Nx
x
5000
(0.04). S s

Dx
Dx

(a)

## Different groups or classes of policyholders may have higher or lower

lapse rates for all major risk factors (age, duration, gender etc.) than other
classes. An example would be where a class of policyholders is defined as
those who purchased their policies through a particular sales outlet (e.g.

(b)

Lapse rates may vary by policy duration as well as age for shorter durations.
At shorter durations lapse rates may be the result of misguided purchase
by policyholder whereas at longer durations the policy has become more
stable.

(c)

Lapse rates vary with calendar time for all major risk factors, e.g.
economic prosperity varies over time and this results in a similar variation in
lapse rates.

Other valid comments were credited. Many students ignored lapses altogether attempting to
answer the question from a mortality standpoint only. No credit was given for this.

Page 3

Assumptions

## Equal forces in the multiple and single decrement tables

Uniform distribution of all decrements across year of age

Then
(aq)x

t
t ( ap ) x . x +t .
t
0

px
px

(ap) x

.dt = ( t px x +t ). t

px

.dt

t

px x +t = qx

t ( ap ) x

t px

= t px = 1 t.qx

Therefore:
1

## (aq)x = qx .(1 t.qx ).dt

0

qx

t2
1

t q x = q x 1 q x
2
0
2

( )

1
1 1 1 1 1
= + qx 1 qx = + qx qx
8
3 4 2 3 12

## Alternatively the solution can be expressed in terms of q x :

1
1

= qx 1 * 4* qx
3

2
5

= qx 2qx
3

This question was essentially course bookwork plus a substitution. To gain good credit it
was necessary to work though the solution as above.

Page 4

0

## = t.e.02t e.03t (0.02 + 0.03)dt

0

= 0.05 t.e.05t dt
0

Integrating by parts:

0

## = 0.05(0 20 / .05[e .05t ]

0)
= 20

Alternatively:
E[Txy ] =

tpx.tpydt

= e .02t e .03t dt
0

= e .05t dt
0

## = [1/ .05* e .05t ]0

= 20
The alternative solution above in essence belongs to the Course CT4 but students who used
this were given full credit. The first solution is that which applies to the CT5 Course.

## Consider the continuous version

This would be

f
m
50000 vt +5 (1 t p70
) t +5 p60
dt
0

f
f
t
m
= 50000v5 5 p60
v (1 t p70 ) t p65dt
0

f
m f
= 50000v5 5 p60
(a65f a70:
65)

Page 5

## The monthly annuity equivalent SP is:

m f
f
(12) f
= 50000v5 5 p60
(a65
a(12)70:65
)
m f
f
f
= 50000v5 5 p60
(a65
a70:65
) (note the monthly adjustment cancels out)

## = 50000*0.82193*9703.708 / 9848.431*(14.871 10.494)

= 177236

Other methods were credited. Students who developed the formulae without recourse to
continuous functions were given full credit.

(i)

## Final salary rate of salary at retirement

Final average salary salary averaged over a fixed period (usually 3 to 5
years) before retirement
Career average salary salary averaged over total service
.
s x +t
represents the ratio of a members earnings in the year of age x+ t to
sx
x+t+1 to their earnings in the year x to x+1.

(ii)

zx =

s x 1 + s x 2 + ..... + s x y
y

## is defined as a y-year final average salary scale.

Other versions credited. Strictly speaking Final Salary is not an average but this caused no
confusion and was fully credited
10

aa
ai
25000 et ( t p55
55+t + t p55
55+t )dt
0

10

aa
ai
+ e t (0. t p55
+ 1000 t p55
)dt
0

where:
= the force of interest
aa
t p 55 = the probability that an able life age 55 is able at age 55 + t
t

Page 6

ai
p55
= the probability that an able life age 55 is ill at age 55 + t

10

## This is the same as:

If y dies in 10 years, then 50000 is paid if x is alive, 200000 if x is dead,
If x dies in 10 years, then 100000 is paid
So the expected present value =
10

## t p y y+t (50000 t px + 200000 t qx ).e

dt

10

+100000 t p x . x +t .et dt
0

t px = e

0.02 dr
0

= e .02t

py = e

0.03dr
0

= e .03t

Therefore value =
10

.03t

10

## +100000 e .02t 0.02.e 0.4t dt

0

10

= 6000 e
0

.07t

10

dt + 2000 e
0

.06t

10

dt 4500 e .09t dt
0

1 +
1
1
e
e
e
0.06
0.09

0.07
= 28,518
=

Page 7

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical) April 2009 Examiners Report)

11

(i)

Annual premium for endowment with 75,000 sum assured given by:
P =

a[45]:20

= 2556.15
13.785

## Reserves at the end of the eighth year:

for endowment with 75,000 sum assured is given by:
8V

## = 75, 000 0.63460 2556.15 9.5 = 23,311.58

for temporary annuity paying an annual benefit of 18,000 is given by:
8V

## Death strain at risk:

Endowment:
Immediate annuity
(ii)

## DSAR = 75,000 23,311.58 = 51,688.42

DSAR = 171,000.00

## Mortality profit = EDS ADS

For endowment assurance

## EDS = (5000 65) q52 51, 688.42

= 4935 0.003152 51, 688.42 = 804, 019.58
ADS = 10 51, 688.42 = 516,884.20
mortality profit = 287,135.38
For immediate annuity
EDS = (2500 30) q52 171, 000.00
= 2470 0.003152 171, 000.00 = 1,331,310.24
ADS = 5 171, 000.00 = 855, 000.00
mortality profit = 476,310.24
Hence, total mortality profit = 287,135.38 476,310.24 = 189,174.86
(i.e. a mortality loss)

Page 8

12

(i)

## For a unit-linked life assurance contract, we have:

the unit fund that belongs to the policyholder. This fund keeps track of the
premiums allocated to units and benefits payable from this fund to
policyholders are denominated in these units. This fund is normally subject to
unit fund charges.
the non-unit fund that belongs to the company. This fund keeps track of the
premiums paid by the policyholder which are not allocated to units together
with unit fund charges from the unit-fund. Company expenses will be charged
to this fund together with any non-unit benefits payable to policyholders.

(ii)

## It is a principle of prudent financial management that once sold and funded at

outset, a product should be self-supporting. However, some products can give
profit signatures which have more than one financing phase. In such cases,
reserves are required at earlier durations to eliminate future negative cash
flows, so that the office does not expect to have to input further money in the
future.

(iii)
Year t
1
2
3
4

q[50]+t1
0.001971
0.002732
0.003152
0.003539

p[50]+t1
0.998029
0.997268
0.996848
0.996461

118.0
= 111.85
1.055

3V

2V

1V

Page 9

13

## Multiple decrement table constructed using (aq ) dx = qxd 1 1 2 (qxs + qxm ) + 13 q xs q xm

etc. which assumes that the decrements in each single decrement table are uniformly
distributed over each year of age
x
40
41
42

q xd
qxs
0.0009370 0.10
0.0010140 0.10
0.0011040 0.10

qxm
0.05
0.05
0.05

(aq) dx
(aq) sx
(aq ) m
x
0.0008683 0.0974547 0.0474781
0.0009396 0.0974510 0.0474763
0.0010230 0.0974466 0.0474742

decrement table
X
40
41
42
43

(al ) x
1,000,000
854,198.9
729,599.6
623,119.0

868.3
802.6
746.4

97,454.7
83,242.5
71,097.0

x
47,478.1
40,554.2
34,637.2

## Let P be the annual premium for the contract.

Then equation of value gives:
PV of premiums = PV of death benefits + PV of surrender benefits + PV of survival
benefits + PV of expenses
729,599.6 2
854,198.9
= P 1 +
v0.05 +
v0.05
1, 000, 000
1, 000, 000

## PV of expenses = 0.005 2.475291P = 0.0123765P

PV of death benefits
1
802.6
746.4
868.3
2
3
= 15, 000 (1.05) 2
v0.05 +
v0.05
+
v0.05

1, 000, 000
1, 000, 000
1, 000, 000

## = 15,370.4262 ( 0.00082695 + 0.00072798 + 0.00064477 ) = 33.8103

PV of withdrawal benefits =
1
83, 242.5 2
71, 097.0 3
97, 454.7
v0.05 + 2
v0.05 + 3
v0.05 1.05 2
= P 1
1, 000, 000
1, 000, 000
1, 000, 000

Page 10

## Subject CT5 (Contingencies Core Technical) April 2009 Examiners Report)

PV of marriage benefits =
40,554.2
34, 637.2
47, 478.1 0.04
2
3 1.05
= P
s1 v0.05 +
s20.04 v0.05
+
s30.04 v0.05
1.04
1, 000, 000
1, 000, 000

1, 000, 000

## = P ( 0.0470259 + 0.0780406 + 0.0971372 ) 1.0047962 = 0.2232694 P

PV of survival benefits =
5000

623,119.0 3
v0.05 = 2691.3681
1, 000, 000

## Equation of value becomes

2.475291P = 33.8103 + 0.4386408P + 0.2232694P + 2,691.3681 + 0.0123765P
=> P = 2725.1784/1.801004 = 1513.14

14

(i)

## Let P be the annual premium payable. Then equation of value gives:

PV of premiums = PV of benefits + PV of expenses
i.e.
Pa[60]:5 = 10, 000 A[60]:5 + 400( IA)60:5 + 0.05 Pa[60]:5 + 0.55 P at
where ( IA)[60]:5 = ( IA)[60]

6%

l65
l
5
5
v0.06
( 5 A65 + ( IA)65 ) + 5 65 v0.06
l[60]
l[60]

and

l65 8821.2612
=
l[60] 9263.1422

## P(0.95a[60]:5 0.55) = 10, 000 A[60]:5 + 400( IA)60:5

P(0.95 4.398 0.55) = 10, 000 0.75104 + 400 3.684864
P=

8984.3456
= 2476.32
3.6281

Page 11

(ii)

1V60:5

## = 10, 400 A61:4 NPa61:4

a

3.722
= 10, 000 1 61:4 + 400 A61:4 = 10, 000 1
+ 400 0.85685 = 2162.52
a

4.550
60:5

a62:3
2.857
1
+ 800 A62:3 = 10, 000 1
2V60:5 = 10, 000
+ 800 0.89013 = 4432.98
a

4.550

60:5

a63:2
1.951
1
+ 1200 A63:2 = 10, 000 1
3V60:5 = 10, 000
+ 1200 0.92498 = 6822.06
a

4.550

60:5

a64:1
1.000
10,
000
V
=
1
+ 1600 A64:1 = 10, 000 1
4 60:5
+ 1600 0.96154 = 9340.66
a

4.550

60:5

Year t
1
2
3
4
5

Prem

Expense

2476.32
2476.32
2476.32
2476.32
2476.32

1485.79
123.82
123.82
123.82
123.82

Opening
reserve
0
2162.52
4432.98
6822.06
9340.66

Interest
69.34
316.05
474.98
642.22
818.52

Year t

t 1 p

Profit signature

1
2
3
4
5

1.0
0.991978
0.983041
0.973101
0.962062

1168.73
338.00
387.45
438.85
492.27

Death
Claim
83.43
97.30
113.25
131.59
152.59

Mat
Claim
0
0
0
0
11847.41

Discount
factor
.91743
.84168
.77218
.70843
.64993

Closing
reserve
2145.17
4393.04
6753.08
9234.20
0

NPV of profit
signature
1072.23
284.49
299.18
310.89
319.94

Year t

t 1 p

1
2
3
4
5

2476.32
2476.32
2476.32
2476.32
2476.32

1.0
0.991978
0.983041
0.973101
0.962062

Discount
factor
1
.91743
.84168
.77218
.70843

## NPV of premiums = 10,327.34

Profit margin =

142.28
= 0.0138 i.e. 1.38%
10,327.34

## END OF EXAMINERS REPORT

Page 12

Profit
vector
1168.73
340.73
394.13
450.99
511.68

2476.32
2253.63
2048.92
1860.73
1687.74

Faculty of Actuaries

Institute of Actuaries

EXAMINATION
5 October 2009 (am)

## Subject CT5 Contingencies

Core Technical
Time allowed: Three hours
INSTRUCTIONS TO THE CANDIDATE
1.

Enter all the candidate and examination details as requested on the front of your answer
booklet.

2.

You must not start writing your answers in the booklet until instructed to do so by the
supervisor.

3.

## Mark allocations are shown in brackets.

4.

Attempt all 14 questions, beginning your answer to each question on a separate sheet.

5.

## AT THE END OF THE EXAMINATION

question paper.
In addition to this paper you should have available the 2002 edition of the Formulae
and Tables and your own electronic calculator from the approved list.

CT5 S2009

Faculty of Actuaries
Institute of Actuaries

Evaluate

2
20 q[45]:[45]

[3]

## Give an expression for the expected present value of a benefit of 1 under a

critical illness assurance contract for a healthy life aged x for term of n years. [3]

Basis: PMA92Base

[3]

Age
40
41
42

Population

Number of deaths

121,376
134,292
133,277

104
127
132

(i)

## Calculate the crude mortality rate for the total population.

[1]

(ii)

Calculate the standardised mortality ratio for this population using AM92
Ultimate.
[3]
[Total 4]

Derive an expression for the variance of the present value of a temporary annuitydue in terms of assurance functions for a life aged x with a term of n years.
[4]

A life insurance company sells annual premium whole life assurance policies with
benefits payable at the end of the year of death. Renewal expenses are incurred at the
start of each year, and claim expenses are nil.
(a)

## Write down a recursive relationship between the gross premium reserves at

successive durations, calculated on the premium basis. Define all symbols
used.

(b)

[4]

CT5 S20092

(a)

## State what is meant by direct expenses incurred by a life insurance company in

respect of a life insurance contract.

(b)

each.
[5]

(i)

[3]

(ii)

[Total 5]

(i)

## Describe how insurance companies use responses to questions from

prospective policyholders to ensure the probability of a profit is set at an
acceptable level.

(ii)

10

[5]

Explain why an insurance company might not use questions requesting genetic
information from prospective policyholders?
[3]
[Total 8]

A pension fund provides a pension from normal retirement age of 1,000 per annum
for each complete year of service. The pension is payable monthly in advance for 5
years certain and for the whole of life thereafter and is only paid if the life remains in
service to normal retirement age of 65.
Calculate the expected present value of the pension for a new entrant aged 62 exact.
Basis: Interest:
4% per annum
Mortality after retirement: PMA92C20
Independent decrement rates before retirement
Age x

q xd

qxw

62
63
64

0.005650
0.006352
0.007140

0.015672
0.078441
0.055654
[8]

CT5 S20093

11

A life insurance company offers special endowment contracts that mature at age 65.
Premiums are payable annually in advance on 1 January each year. The sum assured
payable at the end of year of death during the term is one half of the sum assured that
will be paid if the policyholder survives until maturity.
Details of these contracts in force on 31 December 2007 are:
Exact age

## Total sums assured

payable on maturity ()

60

12,250,000

440,000

The claims in 2008 were on policies with the following total sums assured and annual
Total sums assured
payable on maturity ()
200,000

7,000

Calculate the mortality profit or loss in 2008 given that the company calculates
reserves for these contracts using the gross prospective method.
Basis: Mortality: AM92 Ultimate
Interest:
4% per annum
Expenses: Nil
[9]

12

(i)

## Define in words 1000 A x: y .

(ii)

Calculate:

[3]

(a)

1000A30:40

(b)

The annual premium payable continuously until the 2nd death for the
above assurance in (a) with a sum assured of 1,000.

Basis: = .02 for a life aged 30 exact at entry level throughout their life
= .03 for a life aged 40 exact at entry level throughout their life
= .05 throughout
Expenses: Nil
[7]
(iii)

Outline the main deficiency of the above premium paying scheme and suggest
an alternative.
[3]
[Total 13]

CT5 S20094

13

A life insurance company issues a 35-year non profit endowment assurance policy to
a life aged 30 exact. Level premiums are payable monthly in advance throughout the
term of the policy. The sum assured of 75,000 is payable at maturity or at the end of
year of death of the life insured, if earlier.
(i)

## Show that the monthly premium is approximately 74.

Basis: Mortality:
Interest:
Initial expenses:
Renewal expenses:

Claims expense:
Inflation:

(ii)

AM92 Select
6% per annum
250 plus 50% of the gross annual premium
75 per annum, inflating at 1.92308% per
annum, at the start of the second and subsequent
policy years and 2.5% of the second and
300 inflating at 1.92308% per annum
For renewal and claim expenses, the amounts
quoted are at outset, and the increases due to
inflation start immediately.
[7]

## The insurance company calculates a surrender values equal to the gross

retrospective policy value, assuming the same basis as in (i) above.
Calculate the surrender value at the end of the 30th policy year immediately
[7]
[Total 14]

CT5 S20095

14

A life insurance company issues a special term assurance policy for a 3-year term.
Under the policy, a sum assured of 10,000 is paid at the end of the year of death. In
addition on survival to the end of the term 50% of total premiums paid are returned.
Basis: Initial expenses:
Renewal expenses:
Reserves:

Mortality experience:
Withdrawals:
Surrender Value:
Interest earned:
Risk discount rate:

## 20% of the first years premium

5% of 2nd and 3rd years premiums
Net Premium using AM92 Ultimate at 4% interest
(allowing for return of 50% of net premiums paid on
survival)
80% AM92 Select
20% in year 1, 10% in year 2 (with all withdrawals
assumed to occur at end of year)
Nil
6% per annum
10% per annum

(i)

On the basis of the above information, calculate the level annual premium
payable in advance for a life aged 57 exact to achieve the required rate of
return.
[12]

(ii)

Discuss the effect of increased withdrawal rates on the rate of return to the
company from this policy.
[2]

Following comments from the marketing department, it has been decided to allow a
surrender value at the end of years 1 and 2 equal to 25% of total premiums paid.
(iii)

## Calculate the revised annual premium using the basis above.

END OF PAPER

CT5 S20096

[3]
[Total 17]

Faculty of Actuaries

Institute of Actuaries

## Subject CT5 Contingencies.

Core Technical
September 2009 Examinations
EXAMINERS REPORT

Introduction
The attached subject report has been written by the Principal Examiner with the aim of
helping candidates. The questions and comments are based around Core Reading as the
interpretation of the syllabus to which the examiners are working. They have however given
credit for any alternative approach or interpretation which they consider to be reasonable.
R D Muckart
Chairman of the Board of Examiners
December 2009

Comments for individual questions are given with the solutions that follow.

Faculty of Actuaries
Institute of Actuaries

## Subject CT5 Contingencies Core Technical - September 2009 Examiners Report

1
2
20 q[45]:[45]

1 / 2 * 20 q[45]:[45]
1 / 2 * (1

20 p[45] )

1 / 2 * (1

l65

l[45]

)2

1 / 2 * (1 8821.2612 / 9798.0837) 2
.00497

## In general well this question was well done.

2
Define
k (ap) x =

the probability that a life aged x is alive and not diagnosed as critically ill at

time k
(aq)tx k = the probability that a life aged x + k is diagnosed as critically ill in the
following year

## Then the value is

n 1

vk

t
k ( ap ) x .( aq ) x k

k 0

## Where the benefit is payable at the end of the year of diagnosis

Students often failed to define symbols adequately. The continuous alternative was
also fully acceptable

3
For contant force of mortality at age 72:

p72

(1 q72 ) .969268 e

Hence
0.5 p72.25

0.5 q72.25

dt

ln(.969268) .031214
e

0.75
.031214 dt
0.25

.984514
1 .984504
.015486

Page 2

1
0

.015607

## Subject CT5 Contingencies Core Technical - September 2009 Examiners Report

Generally well done. The alternative very quick answer of 1 ( p 72)1/2 was fully
acceptable

4
(i) Crude rate = (104+127+132)/(121376+134292+133277)=0.000933
(ii)
Age

Population

40
41
42

121,376
134,292
133,277

Expected
Number of
deaths
0.000937 114
0.001014 136
0.001104 147
qx

## SMR = actual deaths / expected deaths

= (104+127+132) / (114+136+147) = 0.914

## Generally well done.

5
var amin( K x

1,n )

var

1 v min( K x
d

1,n )

1
var v min( K x 1,n )
2
d
1 2
Ax:n ( Ax:n )2 where 2 Ax:n is at rate (1 i )2 1
2
d

## Straightforward bookwork where considerable information was given in Handbook.

The Examiners were looking to see students knew how to derive the relationship.
Generally well done.

6
a. ( tV ' GP-et )(1 i )

Page 3

qx t S

px t ( t 1V ' )

where

tV

'

## gross premium reserve at time t

GP
et

renewal expenses incurred at time t

i
S
qx t

## interest rate in premium/valuation basis

Sum Assured
probability life aged x t dies within one year on premium/valuation basis

px

## b. Income (opening reserve and excess of premium over renewal expenses)

plus interest equals outgo (death claims and closing reserve for
survivors) if assumptions are borne out.
Generally well done.

7
Direct expenses are those that vary with the amount of business written. Direct
expenses are divided into:
Initial expenses
Renewal expenses
Termination expenses
Examples of each:
Initial expenses those arising when the policy is issued e.g. initial commission
Renewal expenses those arising regularly during the policy term e.g. renewal
commission
Termination expenses those arising when the policy terminates as a result of an
insured contingency (e.g. death claim for a temporary life insurance policy)
Generally well done and other valid comments and examples were credited.

8
(i) Pensioners retiring at normal retirement age
Pensioners retiring before normal retirement age
Pensioners retiring before normal retirement age on the grounds of ill-health
(ii) Class selection ill-health pensioners will have different mortality to other
retirements.
Temporary initial selection the difference between these classes will
diminish with duration since retirement

Page 4

## Subject CT5 Contingencies Core Technical - September 2009 Examiners Report

Anti-Selection and Time Selection were credited provided they were properly justified.
Generally well done.

9
(i) To set premium rates to ensure the probability of a profit is set at an
acceptable level then the insurer takes advantage of the Central Limit Theorem
while pooling risks which are independent and homogeneous.
Independence of risk usually follows naturally.
Homogeneity is ensured by careful underwriting. Risk groups are separated
by the use of risk factors, such as age and sex.
The life assurance company uses responses to questions to allocate prospective
customers to the appropriate risk group.
Enough questions should be asked to ensure that the variation between
categories is smaller than the random variation that remains but in practice
there will be limits on the number and type of questions that can be asked.
(ii) Equity insurance is about pooling of risks and the use of genetic information
reduces that pooling.
Ethics use of genetic information could create an underclass of lives who
are not able to obtain insurance products at an affordable price, given the
results of their genetic tests.
In some countries legislation may prohibit genetic testing or there might be
political or social reasons why it is avoided.
Generally part (i) was done poorly with students failing to appreciate the key points. Part (ii) was
done better but in this case also most students failed to obtain all the main valid points.

10
Pension at retirement = 3

1000 = 3000

Annuity at retirement
(12)
(12) v5 . 5 p 65 70
5

a5 .

i
d

(12)

(12)
v5 . 5 p 65 70

Use the formula

Page 5

9238.134
. 11.562 11
24
9647.797

13.28659

(aq) x

qx

qx

qx .qx

## To derive the following

(aq)62= 0.021233, (aq)63= 0.084295, (aq)64= 0.062397
And 3(ap)62 = (1

## So value = 3000 13.28659 0.840338 (1.04)

= 29778

A large proportion of students whilst understanding how to approach this question failed
to calculate some or all of it correctly. In some cases certain parts were omitted or
calculated wrongly. Credit was given where parts of the solution were correct.

11
Let EDS and ADS denote the expected and actual death strain in 2008. Then
EDS

q60 Si

Si ( A61:4

l65 4
v ) Pa
i 61:4
l61

where S i is the death benefit per policy and the summation is over all policies in force
at start of the year i.e. (where figures are in 000s)

EDS

q60

Si

Si ( A61:4

0.008022

## 6125 6125 0.85685

0.008022

6125 8623.75

l65 4
v )
l61

Pi a61:4

8821.2612
0.854804
9212.7143

440 3.722

20.045

The actual death strain is obtained by summation of the death strains at risk over the
policies that become claims. Therefore

Si

Si ( A61:4

claims

Si
claims

100

Si ( A61:4
claims

167.5333 26.054

l65 4
v ) Pa
i 61:4
l61
l65 4
v )
l61

Pi a61:4
claims

41.479

Page 6

## Subject CT5 Contingencies Core Technical - September 2009 Examiners Report

This question was very poorly done. Students failed to properly identify the data and
the subtleties of a Pure Endowment contract.

12
(i) The expected present value of a continuous assurance for a sum assured of
1000 calculated at a force of interest on 2 lives aged x and y whereby the
sum is paid on the death of x only if life aged x dies after life aged y.
(ii) For both parts (a) and (b):

tp 30

t
0

rdr

t
0.02 dr
0

0.02t

## Similarly for the life 40

tp 40

0.03t

_ 2
t
(a) 1000 A 30 : 40 1000 0 v tp30(1 tp 40)

1000 0 e

.05t

*e

1000 0 .02*(e

.02t

.07t

t dt
.03t

*(1 e
.1t

e
.07t

) *.02dt

)dt

.02 / .1* e

.1t

]0

## 1000(.02 / .07 .02 / .1)

85.714
____
(b) To calculate premium we need a30:40

____
a30:40

.05t

(e

[ e

(e

.07t

.07t

.02t

.08t

/ .07 e

.03t
1.t

e
.08t

.05t

)dt

)dt

/ .08 e

.1t

/ .1]0

## (1/ .07 1/ .08 1/ .1)

16.786
So the required premium = 85.714 /16.786
5.11

(iii)If the life age 30 dies first the policy ceases without benefit yet the premium is
expected to be maintained by the life aged 40 so long as they survive. There is
no incentive to continue.
The sensible option would be to establish the premium paying period as
ceasing on the death of the life aged 30.
Page 7

## A single premium is possible as an alternative if affordable.

In general terms this question was reasonably well done although a large number of
students failed to obtain all of the required numerical solutions (the main error being
failure to calculate the joint life last survivor annuity). In part (iii) a student who
suggested a joint life first death approach was given credit although this is an
expensive option.

13
(i) Let P be the monthly premium for the contract. Then:
EPV of premiums valued at rate i where i = 0.06 is:
12 Pa(12)

[30]:35

where v35

12 P(a[30]:35
l65
l[30]

12 P(15.152

0.13011

l
11
(1 v35 65 ))
24
l[30]
8821.2612
9923.7497

0.11566

11
(1 .11566)) 12 P 14.74668 176.9601P
24

75, 000 A[30]:35

## 75, 000 0.14234 10, 675.5

EPV of expenses not subject to inflation and therefore valued at rate i where i
= 0.06 is:
0.025 12 Pa(12)

[30]:35

250 10.399 P

## EPV of expenses subject to inflation and therefore valued at rate j where

1.06
1 j
1.04 is:
1.0192308
75(a[30]:35 1) 300 A[30]:35 75 18.072 300 0.26647 1435.341
Equating EPV of premiums and EPV of benefits and expenses gives:
176.9601P = 10,675.5 + 250 + 10.399P + 1,435.341
=> P = 12,360.841/166.5611 = 74.21
(ii) Gross retrospective policy value is given by:
V retrospective

Page 8

## Subject CT5 Contingencies Core Technical - September 2009 Examiners Report

(1 i )

1
12 P 0.975a(12) @ i % 0.025 P 12 0.5 P 250 75, 000 A[30]:30
@ i%
l
[30]:30
[30]
30

75(a@ j %

l60

[30]:30

1
1) 300 A[30]:30
@ j%

where,
l[30]
l60

9923.7497
1.06854
9287.2164

## and at rate i = 0.06

a(12)

[30]:30

1
A[30]:30

a[30]:30
A[30]:30

l
11
1 v30 60
24
l[30]
v30

l60
l[30]

14.437

11
(1 0.16294) 14.0533
24

a[30]:30

17.759

1
A[30]:30

A[30]:30

v30

l60
l[30]

## 0.31697 0.30832 0.93586 0.02843

V retrospective
6.13715 12, 201.876 1.8553 445.26 250 1, 491.75 1, 256.925 8.529
53,707.84

Generally part (i) was done well. Students did however often struggle to reproduce
part (ii) which is often the case with retrospective reserves.
In this case because the reserve basis matched the premium basis the retrospective
reserve equalled the prospective reserve. If the student realised this, fully stated the
fact and then calculated the prospective reserve full credit was given.
Minimal credit was however given if just a prospective reserve method was attempted
without proper explanation.

14
(i) First calculate net premium NP and reserve tV 57:3 for t = 1 and 2

Page 9

NPa57:3

10000( A57:3

NP 2.870 8896.3
1.5 NP
175.394
NP 112.29
(112.29
1V57:3

2V57:3

v3

l60
l
) 0.5 3 NP v3 60
l57
l57

## 10000 0.889 9287.2164 / 9467.2906

0.889 9287.2164 / 9467.2906
NP 1.308
(1.04) 10000 q 57) /(1 q 57)

## (116.782 56.50) / 0.99435

60.62
((112.29 60.62) (1.04) 10000 q 58) /(1 q 58)
(179.826 63.520) / 0.993648
117.05

The end 3rd year reserve needs to be 1.5 times the office premium to be
calculated so as to meet the return guarantee.
We can complete the following table (denoting the office premium by P).
Note as withdrawals are assumed at the end of the year the decrements of
mortality and withdrawal are not dependent.
Year 1 Age 57
80% AM92 q select
Withdrawal
In force factor
begin year
Expenses
Death Claims
Opening Reserve
Closing Reserve
Interest
Profit vector
Profit signature

Year 2 Age 58

0.0033368
.19933264
1

Year 3 Age 59

.004944
.0995056
.79733056

.005712
0
.7140497

0.2P
33.368
0
48.334
.048P

0.05P
49.440
60.62
104.824
.057P+3.6372

0.05P
57.120
117.05
1.4914P
.057P+7.023

.848P 81.702
.848P 81.702

1.007P 90.007
.8029P 71.7653

0.4844P+66.953
0.3459P+47.808

Alternatively the Closing Reserve at End Year 3 can be taken as zero and an
additional item termed Maturity Value can be shown in Year 3 only equal to
1.4914P.
To obtain 10% return the equation is:
P

## [.848/(1.1) + 0.8029/(1.1)2 0.3459/(1.1)3] [81.702/(1/1)

+ 71.7653/(1.1)2 47.808/(1.1)3] = 0

Page 10

1.1746
(ii)

97.6659 = 0

P = 83.15 say 83

## The impact of increasing withdrawal rates depends primarily on the

relationship between expenses, reserves and any surrender value. In this case
there is no surrender value, a substantial reserve for a maturity benefit and low
expenses.
In that scenario, increasing the lapse rates actually improves the return to the
company as it retains a substantial premium and reserve with low expected
death costs and returns nothing to the policyholder. This return comes earlier
also and benefits from the high risk discount rate.

(iii)

## A revised office premium is now required say P.

In this case a life who surrenders obtains 0.25P at the end of year1 and 0.5P
at the end of year 2.
On the same parameters the present value of these 2 cash flow items are:
P

[0.25

0.19933264/(1.1)+0.5

0.0995056

0.79733056/(1.1)2]

= 0.07809P
1.1746

P 97.6659

0.07809P = 0

P = 89.07 say 89

Most students found this a very daunting question and overall performance was lower
than expected. Certain comments are appropriate:
Because of the stated fact that withdrawals happened at the end of the year
calculating dependent decrements was not necessary. Many students wasted
much time attempting to perform this.
Many students did not know how to calculate a net premium for this contract.
The reserve process was very straightforward if done on a recursive basis (see
question 6)
Once these facts were realised the question was then a relatively simple
manipulation of cash flows.
Credit was given to students who gave some reasonable verbal explanation of what
needed to be done even if calculations were incomplete.

Page 11