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You are on page 1of 10

STUDENT ID: _______________________________________

SIGNATURE: _______________________________________

SCHOOL OF RISK AND ACTUARIAL STUDIES

MONTH OF EXAMINATION APRIL 2012

MID SESSION EXAMINATION

ACTL3001

ACTL5104

ACTUARIAL STATISTICS

1) TIME ALLOWED 50 Minutes including reading time

2) TOTAL NUMBER OF QUESTIONS 3.

3) TOTAL MARKS AVAILABLE 30

4) THE MARKS ALLOCATED TO EACH PART OF EACH QUESTION ARE

INDICATED.

5) THIS EXAMINATION PAPER HAS 10 PAGES

6) ANSWER ALL QUESTIONS ON THIS QUESTION SHEET

7) THIS PAPER MAY NOT BE RETAINED BY THE CANDIDATE

8) ALL QUESTIONS ARE NOT OF EQUAL VALUE

9) CANDIDATES MAY BRING THEIR OWN CALCULATOR AND TABLES

FOR EXAMINATION PURPOSES

10) ALL ANSWERS MUST BE WRITTEN IN INK. ILLEGIBLE ANSWERS WILL

NOT BE MARKED.

Table of Chi-square statistics

Df P = 0.05 P = 0.01 P = 0.001

1

3.84

6.64

10.83

11.07

15.09

20.52

10 18.31

23.21

29.59

20 31.41

37.57

45.32

30 43.77

50.89

59.70

40 55.76

63.69

73.41

50 67.51

76.15

86.66

Page 2 of 10

Question 1 [4 marks]

A survival function is given by

Find each of the following:

i)

ii)

iii)

35

15p30

15|10q30

Page 3 of 10

A large funeral society in developing country has investigated its mortality over the

past two calendar years and produced the following results.

Age

Actual

Expected

20

21

22

23

24

2

3

6

10

16

2

4

5

10

10

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

23

24

29

27

35

32

46

31

43

25

39

41

62

60

84

44

89

75

65

68

99

123

126

127

179

20

19

20

22

25

28

34

28

42

27

36

45

58

64

73

55

83

70

64

81

88

117

130

126

150

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

91

146

177

154

137

207

146

181

201

136

214

103

131

186

141

146

210

149

164

217

140

206

Page 4 of 10

Chi squared

0.02

0.17

0.18

0.01

4.28

0.34

1.32

3.35

1.08

4.67

0.59

4.20

0.17

0.01

0.23

0.19

0.52

0.31

0.24

1.82

2.04

0.52

0.36

0.01

1.93

1.32

0.35

0.10

0.02

5.34

1.37

1.72

0.44

1.10

0.58

0.03

0.06

1.93

1.08

0.10

0.31

Question 2 continued

Some useful results:

Standardised deviations:

Less than -2

Less than -1

Less than 0

Less than 1

Less than 2

More than 2

Grouping of signs

Positive

Negative

Chi squared

Cumulative deviations

Total deaths

1000

0

6

12

11

8

4

Number

25

16

Total

44

-115

3329

Groups

12

11

First 21

26

-55

627

Second 20

18

-39

2702

100

10

Actual

Expected

1

20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60

You have been told that all the calculations except the last table have been checked

for accuracy.

Page 5 of 10

Question 2 continued

a)

If the rate interval used in collecting the data was a life year, and the society

has records of the age at death of each member, what records would it have had to

keep for determining the exposed to risk using the census method?

(2)

Page 6 of 10

Question 2 continued

b)

Defining everything you use, and making appropriate assumptions, develop a

formula for central death rates that could easily be used.

(6)

Page 7 of 10

Question 2 continued

c)

Performing any tests you consider necessary, state whether you believe that

the graduated results accurately reflect the underlying mortality of the society.

(10)

Page 8 of 10

Question 2 continued

d)

Comment on the use of graduation by standard table rather than the use of a

formula or the Whittaker Henderson method.

(4)

Page 9 of 10

Question 3 [4 marks]

Multiple decrements can be viewed using a Markov, Poisson or Binomial approach.

Describe very briefly the main considerations about which approach you would take

in practice.

END OF EXAMINATION

Page 10 of 10

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