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**ACTL4303 AND ACTL5303
**

ASSET LIABILITY MANAGEMENT

Week 6

Fixed Income Securities

Greg Vaughan

Review of Equity Pricing and Revision

**b is earnings retention (1 – payout ratio)
**

E is next year’s earnings

k is the equity discount rate eg Rf + B(Rm-Rf)

ROE is return on newly invested equity

Given b, E and ROE you can determine P if you have k, or determine k if

you have P (market implied returns, consistent with assumptions)

2

Review of Equity Pricing (2)

**§ If the price accurately reflects stock characteristics (eg ROE) then
**

investment return equals discount rate

§ High PE and high growth do not mean high return

3

Disequilibrium Example E(r) SML 15% Rm=11% rf=3% 1.25 4 β .0 1.

The security characteristic line RHP (t ) = α HP + β HP RS &P500 (t ) + eHP (t ) 5 .

• Active weights are scaled based on target tracking error 6 . A stocks weight in the active portfolio is the difference between its portfolio weight and its weight in the index A w A i P I = wi − wi • Key result: If not for the long only constraint ( index model implies w A i ∝ w P i >0 ) the single- α σ (e ) i 2 i • ‘. so that portfolio beta is one. rather than the beta of each individual security’.Portfolio Construction and the Single-Index Model α A • Managers are assessed on their information ratios: σ (e ) • These relate to their active portfolios.we are concerned only with the aggregate beta of the active portfolio. Normally this is zero by design..

or the data span is shorter.Arithmetic and geometric returns E(Geometric Average) = E(Arithmetic average) – 1 2 2σ IF we were observing a stationary return distribution: • The sample arithmetic average (eg over 55 years) is an unbiased estimate of the true mean • However compounding at this rate results in an upwardly biased forecast for a given horizon (eg over ten years) • The unbiased estimator for a projection of H years. the geometric mean becomes increasingly relevant 7 . the Arithmetic mean is appropriate. based on a data sample of T years is (H/T) x Geometric + (1-H/T) x Arithmetic • For a short projection horizon. but where the horizon is longer.

3 0% Quarterly -1.5 0.8 0% Annual -0.1 30.8 8.8 56% 8 .Australian Equity Log Returns 1980-2012 Frequency Skewness Excess Kurtosis Probability of Normality Monthly -3.

monthly) • If there is true independence from one period to the next the results should be consistent (ie variance ratios of 1) • There is some mild statistical contradiction of the random walk in Australia (1980-2012) 9 . quarterly.Random Walk and the EMH • Volatility of log returns can be calculated at different data frequencies (eg annual.

Dividend Imputation (2) • A company makes a profit of $100. with the net effect that the superannuation fund receives $15 • The dividend is worth $85 to the superannuation fund 10 . Tax = 15%x($70 + $30) =$15 • The superannuation fund receives a credit from the tax office of $30 against that tax liability. and pays company tax at 30% leaving $70 for distribution as dividend • A $30 imputation credit is attached to the $70 dividend in respect of the company tax paid • The superannuation fund pays 15% tax on the aggregate of the dividend ($70) and the franking credit ($30).

This week’s coverage Bodie et al Chapter 14 Chapter 15 Chapter 16 11 Bond Prices and Yields The Term Structure of Interest Rates Managing Bond Portfolios .

MARCUS .Interest Rate Uncertainty and Forward Rates • Investors require a risk premium to hold a longer-‐term bond • This liquidity premium compensates short-‐ term investors for the uncertainty about future prices 12 INVESTMENTS | BODIE. KANE.

Theories of Term Structure • The Expecta=ons Hypothesis Theory • Observed long-‐term rate is a func=on of today’s short-‐term rate and expected future short-‐term rates • fn = E(rn) and liquidity premiums are zero 13 INVESTMENTS | BODIE. KANE. MARCUS .

MARCUS . fn generally exceeds E(rn) • The excess of fn over E(rn) is the liquidity premium • The yield curve has an upward bias built into the long-‐term rates because of the liquidity premium 14 INVESTMENTS | BODIE. therefore. KANE.Theories of Term Structure • Liquidity Preference Theory • Long-‐term bonds are more risky.

KANE. such as liquidity premiums • An upward sloping curve could indicate: • Rates are expected to rise and/or • Investors require large liquidity premiums to hold long term bonds 15 INVESTMENTS | BODIE.Interpreting the Term Structure • The yield curve reﬂects expecta=ons of future interest rates • The forecasts of future rates are clouded by other factors. MARCUS .

MARCUS . KANE.Bond Pricing: Two Types of Yield Curves 16 Pure Yield Curve On-‐the-‐Run Yield Curve • Uses stripped or zero coupon Treasuries • May diﬀer signiﬁcantly from the on-‐the-‐run yield curve • Uses recently-‐issued coupon bonds selling at or near par • The one typically published by the ﬁnancial press INVESTMENTS | BODIE.

Bond Yields: YTM vs. rela=onships are reversed 17 INVESTMENTS | BODIE. Current Yield • Yield to Maturity • Bond’s internal rate of return • The interest rate that makes the PV of a bond’s payments equal to its price. KANE. assumes that all bond coupons can be reinvested at the YTM • Current Yield • Bond’s annual coupon payment divided by the bond price • For premium bonds Coupon rate > Current yield > YTM • For discount bonds. MARCUS .

KANE. MARCUS .Bond Yields: Yield to Call • If interest rates fall. the risk of call is negligible and the values of the straight and the callable bond converge 18 INVESTMENTS | BODIE. price of straight bond can rise considerably • The price of the callable bond is ﬂat over a range of low interest rates because the risk of repurchase or call is high • When interest rates are high.

KANE.Figure 14. MARCUS .4 Bond Prices: Callable and Straight Debt 19 INVESTMENTS | BODIE.

KANE.Bond Yields: Realized Yield versus YTM • Reinvestment Assump=ons • Holding Period Return • Changes in rates aﬀect returns • Reinvestment of coupon payments • Change in price of the bond 20 INVESTMENTS | BODIE. MARCUS .

HPR 21 YTM HPR • It is the average return if the bond is held to maturity • Depends on coupon rate. and par value • All of these are readily observable • It is the rate of return over a par=cular investment period • Depends on the bond’s price at the end of the holding period. MARCUS .Bond Prices Over Time: YTM vs. an unknown future value • Can only be forecasted INVESTMENTS | BODIE. maturity. KANE.

Yield components

Real risk-free interest rate +

Expected inflation rate +

Maturity Premium

=Sovereign Bond Yield

Liquidity Premium +

Credit spread

= Corporate Bond Spread

Corporate Bond Yield = Sovereign Yield + Corporate Spread

Corporate Bond Spreads increase with maturity.

22

**Yields spreads and economic sensitivity
**

Post-GFC era

•

•

•

•

**Credit spreads have narrowed
**

with ‘reach for yield’

Relaxed investors because

default rates have been low

**Conventional soft economy
**

•

Credit spreads deteriorate

•

**Investors require wider risk
**

premium because of rising default

risk

•

**Issuance drives spreads wider
**

when investors are reluctant

holders

•

**Secondary market liquidity
**

deteriorates so liquidity premiums

expand

**Significant issuance has had little
**

effect on spreads

Secondary market has been

reasonable healthy

23

Australian bond pricing

**P = the price per $100 face value (rounded to 3 decimal places)
**

v = 1/(1+i) where i is half yearly yield = y/200 where y is %pa

f = number of days from settlement to next interest payment date

d = number of days in the half year ending on the next interest

payment data (181-184)

g = the half-yearly rate of coupon payment per 100

n = the term in half years from the next interest-payment date to

maturity

24

Bond pricing and accrued interest • Accrued interest = gx(1-f/d) Bond prices may be quoted including accrued interest (Australian practice ) or net of accrued interest (‘clean’ – US practice) The Australian formula naturally calculates the price including accrued interest US based software (excel. financial calculators) are based around the ‘clean’ price convention 25 .

KANE.1 Principal and Interest Payments for a Treasury Inﬂation Protected Security There are only $5b Australian Government Indexed Bonds on issue compared to $350b conventional Australian Government Bonds 26 INVESTMENTS | BODIE.Table 14. MARCUS .

Bank bills 27 .

Bond pricing and yield sensitivity • Bond pricing is based on yields convertible half yearly • If we measure time in years then the pricing formula is effectively: −2t # y& P = ∑ Ct ⋅ %1+ ( $ 2' −2t−1 $ y' dP = ∑ Ct ⋅ (−2t ) ⋅ &1+ ) % 2( dy ! dP $ # & ! 1 $ " dy % = −# & × ∑ t ⋅ wt P " 1+ y / 2 % 28 −2t $1' $ 1 ' $ y' ⋅ & ) = −& ) ⋅ ∑ Ct ⋅ t ⋅ &1+ ) % 2 ( % 1+ y / 2 ( % 2( where −2t " y% wt = Ct ⋅ $1+ ' # 2& /P .

Bond pricing and yield sensitivity • The duration is the weighted average term of cash flows with weights determined as the proportion of valuation at that point in time • This is commonly referred to as Macaulay duration (1938) MacaulayDuration = ∑ t ⋅ wt • −2t where " y% wt = Ct ⋅ $1+ ' # 2& Modified Duration is the first derivative relative to price : " dP % $ ' 1 # dy & ModifiedDuration = − = × MacaulayDuration P (1+ y / 2) 29 /P .

8% = 110.30% • The corresponding Macaulay duration is 8. price changes inversely by 8. P at 3.002) = 8.42 years 30 .30 years • Because of the relation to Macaulay duration it is quoted in years rather than as a percentage (which would be more logical) • For every 1% change in yields.584x0.584.800. • P at 3% = 108. P at 2.800)/(2x108.Bond pricing and yield sensitivity • Because this is a first derivative we can estimate modified duration by pricing the bond at yields either side of the current yield and estimating by difference P −P ModifiedDuration ≅ − + 2 × P × Δy • Consider a ten year 4% coupon bond with the market yield at 3%.403 • Modified Duration = (110.2%=106.403 – 106.

a bond’s dura=on generally increases with its =me to maturity 31 INVESTMENTS | BODIE. a bond’s dura=on is higher when the coupon rate is lower • Rule 3 • Holding the coupon rate constant.Interest Rate Risk • What Determines Dura=on? • Rule 1 • The dura=on of a zero-‐coupon bond equals its =me to maturity • Rule 2 • Holding maturity constant. KANE. MARCUS .

Interest Rate Risk • What Determines Dura=on? • Rule 4 • Holding other factors constant. KANE. MARCUS . the dura=on of a coupon bond is higher when the bond’s yield to maturity is lower • Rules 5 32 • The dura=on of a level perpetuity is equal to: (1 + y) / y INVESTMENTS | BODIE.

referred to as Convexity • Convexity is related to the spread of cash flows around the duration P+ + P− − 2 × P Convexity ≅ 2 × P × (Δy)2 • Convexity = (106..584 x 0.Bond pricing and yield sensitivity • The relationship between price and yield is non-linear • Recall Taylor’s theorem h2 f (x + h) = f (x) + h ⋅ f "(x) + f ""(x) +.800+110..3 using previous example 33 . 2! • Estimating change in price is improved by taking account of the second derivative.002^2) = 40..584)/(2 x 108.403-2x108.

188 at 3.Bond pricing and yield sensitivity ΔP 2 ≅ −ModDur × Δy + 1 × Convexity × ( Δy ) 2 P ( ) • If we wanted to estimate the change in price for an increase in yield from 3% to 3.50%.10% P • The actual price is 104.3× 0.30 × 0.5 × 40.0050 2 = −4. a change of -4.5% yield.05% • In practice portfolios can be priced directly without any approximation formula • However these concepts are relevant in risk management (eg what is the duration of the fixed interest portfolio) 34 . based on our example ΔP = −8.0050 + 0.

and the duration contribution will be zero .Frank Redington (greatest British actuary ever) Redington’s 1952 paper on immunization • Set duration of assets equal to duration of liabilities • Have convexity of assets greater than convexity of liabilities If assets and liabilities have the same duration. Δ ( A − L) 2 1 = −(DurA − DurL ) × Δy + × (ConvA − ConvL ) × ( Δy) 2 L ( ) The convexity contribution will always be positive. the the assetliability hedge can be improved by increasing the convexity of the assets.

the high convexity portfolio will underperform a matched convexity portfolio • Need to model the risks of asset/liability mismatch more thoroughly . the asset portfolio will have a wider spread of maturities eg maturity barbell • This is OK if the yield curve experiences a parallel shift • However if the yield curve steepens for example at the same time as shifting.Immunization issues • To achieve greater convexity than liabilities.

Default Risk and Bond Pricing • Credit Default Swaps (CDS) • Acts like an insurance policy on the default risk of a corporate bond or loan • Buyer pays annual premiums • Issuer agrees to buy the bond in a default or pay the diﬀerence between par and market values to the CDS buyer 37 INVESTMENTS | BODIE. MARCUS . KANE.

Default Risk and Bond Pricing • Credit Default Swaps • Ins=tu=onal bondholders.g. e. used CDS to enhance creditworthiness of their loan por_olios. MARCUS . to manufacture AAA debt • Can also be used to speculate that bond prices will fall • This means there can be more CDS outstanding than there are bonds to insure 38 INVESTMENTS | BODIE. KANE. banks.

MARCUS .Figure 14.12 Prices of Credit Default Swaps 39 INVESTMENTS | BODIE. KANE.

Credit Risk (1) • The risk of loss resulting from the borrower (issuer of debt) failing to make full and timely payments of interest and/or principal • Expected loss=Default Probability x Loss given default • For investment grade credits the focus is on default probability. which is very low • For speculative grade credit. loss given default becomes very important • Recovery rates vary widely by industry • They also depend on the credit cycle .

Credit Risk (2) • Corporate yield spreads depend on credit worthiness and market liquidity • Credit rating can migrate with atendency for speculative grade credits to become even lower rated .

Recovery Rating .

Average 3 Year Corporate Transition Rates (1981-2014) Source: Standard & Poor’s 2015 Note for speculative grade the tendency is for ratings to deteriorate rather than improve .

Investment Grade and Speculative Grade • Investment grade is rated BBB.and above • Risk of default is very low for investment grade (circa 2% over 5 years) so covenants and collateral matter much less • However for speculative grade (BB+ and below) default risk is significantly higher and lending tends to be ‘secured’ • ‘Secured’ needs to be interpreted carefully • A significant number of ‘secured’ loans ultimately realise losses on default • For speculative grade the investor needs to consider both risk of default and loss in the event of default .

First Lien. Second Lien. subordination • Lien refers to the security of loan • First lien ranks ahead of second lien in regard to specific collateral • Ideally collateral is enough to satisfy both first and second lien with some left over for general unsecured creditors • If collateral is not enough to satisfy claim of first lien. they both rank equally from there on • Subordinated debt ranks after senior creditors which may be secured and unsecured (eg general obligation bonds) • Investment grade borrowers typically don’t need to offer security via specific collateral .

Ratings Agencies and Credit Ratings • The common credit rating refers to risk of default • A separate rating addresses loss severity • Ratings agencies were guilty of over-rating structured credit leading up to GFC • Standard corporate credit ratings have been reliable • The market will usually anticipate downgrades so beware discrepancies between yield and rating • Issuer rating refers usually to senior unsecured debt • Specific issues may be notched (eg subordinate debt will be rated lower) .

Credit Rating (S&P) .

Credit Rating (S&P) US Industrial companies – 3 year average Source: Standard & Poor’s 2011 .

Ratings and default by time horizon .

Ratings and default by time horizon .

Default rates and investment grade (2) .

Default rates and investment grade (1) Default rates are cyclical. especially for speculative grade .

Default rates vary significantly by industry .

Surges in speculative grade issuance have tended to lead the default cycle .

Recovery Rating Distribution .

Loan covenants (1) • Two types – incurrence (light) and maintenance(restrictive) covenants • At the investment grade level (bonds) where default risk is remote incurrence covenants are common • Incurrence covenants are triggered where the issuer takes an action (paying a dividend. making an acquisition. issuing more debt) • For example more debt may not be able to be issued if the multiple of debt to cash flow falls below a threshold (eg 5 times) .

Loan covenants (2) • Maintenance covenants (high yield credit) require the issuer to have ongoing satisfactory financial health. even if there is no intention to issue more debt • For example if cash flow declines and debt to cash flow increases a maintenance covenant might be breached • Maintenance covenants allow lenders to take action earlier with the onset of financial distress • They may increase the spread or seek additional collateral • Covenants on new issues tend to be stronger during weak economic conditions .

short term debt). fixed charges (debt service plus capex and rent) • Leverage – debt to equity or cash flow (eg total debt to EBITDA) • Current-ratio – current assets (cash. receivables. inventories) to current liabilities (accounts apyable. debt service (interest plus repayments). Quick ratio excludes inventories. securities.Loan covenants (3) Maintenance covenants are typically more detailed and may include: • Coverage – minimum level of cash flow or earnings relative to interest. • Tangible-net-worth – minimum level of book value less intangibles) • Maximum-capital-expenditures .

new loans or bond issues are required to pay maturing debt • Secured loans in a debt structure make unsecured loans less attractive .High Yield Credit and Liquidity Risk • High yield companies can have fragile liquidity • They may have a slow cash conversion cycle (eg high inventory and receivables) • No access to commercial paper market so rely on banks which may impose tight restrictions • Private companies cannot easily issue equity • Rollover risk .

and there bonds/loans fall in value .High yield credit is susceptible to a perfect storm • Profitability of companies with high operational leverage is adversely affected by an economic downturn • Liquidity can tighten as banks become more cautious with short-term funding. further crimping profitability • Debt becomes difficult to roll over – investors are reluctant • The default cycle awakens and spreads widen. reducing the market value of these loans • Companies that can only afford cheap debt are in trouble even if they can roll over loans • Collateral is worth less so loss given default increases • Investors get stuck as the secondary market dries up.

with risk of security becoming perpetual • Bank capital notes – similar to a converting preference shares The Australian corporate bond market is largely traded ‘overthe-counter’ (ie not through an exchange) .Floating rate mischief on the ASX (1) There are a range of interest bearing securities traded on the ASX: • Australian Government Bonds (for retail investors • Unsecured notes – sometimes issued by insurers as regulatory capital • Convertible notes – debt with an option over equity • Corporate preference shares – conversion or redemption may be at company’s option.

and may be deferred (eg if APRA says so!) . the investor should be compensated by a yield premium • Interest is not always cumulative.Floating rate mischief on the ASX (2) • Floating rate securities are of no standard form and need to be analysed thoroughly • Typically pay a margin above Bank Bill Swap Rate • Although they have zero yield curve duration they still have spread duration because of term to maturity • Bank capital notes are every bit as vulnerable as equity in the event of financial stress (that’s why they’re Tier 1 capital) • Where an issuer has options (eg to redeem early).

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