Paris Climate Conference

:
What Climate Agreement did We Get?
NGOCSD Meeting Presentation
December 2015

Jan W. Dash, PhD
Lead Climate Advisor, NGOCSD
Climate Science Rapid Response Team Matchmaker
Managing Editor: Climate Portal climate.uu-uno.org

Climate – Survival Issue
We humans are causing global warming
  We are seeing bad impacts NOW
  Impacts FAR WORSE if we do not act (BAU)
  No place to hide under BAU
  Disasters worse due to Climate Change:
Increased conflict (wars/national insecurity),
water shortages, crop failures, intense fires,
droughts, flooding, species extermination,
disease increase, extreme weather, sea level rise,
heat waves, precipitation changed, AND
economic/finance disruption (breakdown) …
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Climate – Ethics Issue
  Climate

justice: Poor have the smallest
effect on climate – hurt the worst

  BUT

even the U.S. will be hit very hard if
no climate action

  Intergenerational

ethics: Our descendants

◦  More humane and cheaper for preventive
action now rather than disaster adaptive
action by our descendants in the future

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Sustainable Development Goals –
All are tied to Climate Change

 

Goal 1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere
Goal 2. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture
Goal 3. Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages
Goal 4. Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all
Goal 5. Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls
Goal 6. Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all
Goal 7. Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all
Goal 8. Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and
decent work for all
Goal 9. Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation
Goal 10. Reduce inequality within and among countries
Goal 11. Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable
Goal 12. Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns

 

Goal 13.Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts*

 

Goal 14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development
Goal 15. Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests,
combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss
Goal 16. Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all
and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels
Goal 17. Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable
development

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Climate Action: We CAN mitigate
Climate Change / Global Warming:
  Recognize/acknowledge

problem extent
  Practice Climate Risk Management
◦  Long term solution vs. short term expediency
◦  Change: All Deliberate Speed to renewables
◦  Obstacles: Disinformation / Political Obstruction,
Economic issues, Psychological...
  Action:

All levels from local to global needed

◦  No “silver bullet” solution exists
◦  Individuals, NGOs, business, cities, governments
◦  International climate agreement: this talk =>
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2015 Paris Climate Change Conference

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Negotiation Issues – always same
  CARBON

BUDGET: ESSENTIAL PROBLEM

◦  Can’t burn all carbon and have livable world
  Cumulative

CO2 vs. Current CO2

◦  Economic growth - developing countries.
◦  “Energy parity” vs. CO2 emissions.

  Legal

status (binding vs. non-binding)
  Who pays for what? When?

◦  Support for Adaptation/Mitigation (Green Fund)
◦  Loss + Damage
◦  Technology Assistance
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What did Paris deliver?
  Solid Agreement. Better

than expected.
  Built on Copenhagen + Durban + …
  All countries compromised
  All countries agreed - diplomatic success
  Goal - keep below +2 degrees C (+1.5oC)
 

Intended Nationally Determined Contributions
◦  Emissions reductions specified each country
◦  184 countries submitted INDCs
◦  BUT: NOT enough for +2oC target
◦  Absolutely need future stronger INDCs
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Paris Agreement II
  Measurement, Reporting,

Verification
  Review every 5 years, increase “ambition”
  Green fund to developing countries
◦  $100B/yr minimum by 2020

  Loss

and damage
  Hybrid legal structure - complicated
◦  Some parts binding, some not binding
◦  Agreement is a new International treaty
◦  BUT NOT a new national treaty for US
  Implementing existing UNFCCC treaty (1992)
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Also Opportunities
  Solutions

need public and private capital

◦  Need $10 - $20 Trillion for transformation
◦  This can result in huge benefits
◦  Like transition mainframes  iPhones
  Businesses

and Paris Agreement

◦  Solid signal for growth of renewable energy
◦  Solid signal for decline of fossil fuel industry
  Cities

– continuing to act on climate
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PROBLEM: Climate Contrarians
“We have no Climate Risk” fallacy
  Contrarian

pseudoscience and cherrypicked economic scenarios
  Right wing media and think tanks
  Contrarians control US Congress
  Obstruction to Paris Agreement
  Big reason why agreement is not stronger
◦  Language had to be carefully chosen
◦  “Shall” vs. “Should”

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Warming to 2100. Target: Blue. Paris: Red
(Green if extended). Current: Above Red.
IPCC 2007
Science Vol I

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Paris INDCs if fulfilled gives +3.5oC by
2100, better than BAU, still much too hot

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Emissions +2o: developing countries
must peak, decrease (leapfrog)

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Some Good News - Most Exciting
thing I heard
  Dr. MacDonald, head

of NOAA lab (CO)
  National power grid for US proposed
  1/3 solar, 1/3 wind, 1/3 NG
  Cuts emissions for US significantly
  High Voltage DC network beside
Interstate Highways
  Off-the-shelf technology. It will work.

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NGOCSD Climate Paper
  Every

year starting with Copenhagen
  Promoted at Paris
◦  Given to some US negotiators
◦  Mentioned to Al Gore who was there
◦  Given to panel members (INDC Ethics)

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Panel: Ethical Aspects of INDCs

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Paris Blog on Climate Portal
climate.uu-uno.org

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Road to Paris  Superhighway from Paris.
SIGN PARIS PLEDGE FOR ACTION
  Public Opinion – LTE, legislature contacts …
  Price on Carbon – cap/trade, fee/dividend
  Urge stronger INDC for next review
  Advocate Sustainable Development Goals
  Opposition to contrarians
  Support EPA regulations on emission control

  We

must be optimistic (no alternative)

 You

can help
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Thank You

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