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UNIVERSITI
TEKNOLOGI
PETRONAS
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..
WAVAl

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COURSE

EAB2123/EBB2123

- PROBABILITY
06THMAY 2011 (FRIDAY)

DATE

TIME

& STATISTICS

3.00 PM - 6.00 PM (3 hours)

INSTRUCTIONS TO CANDIDATES
1.
2.
3.

Answer ALL questions in the Answer Booklet.


Begin EACH answer on a new page.
Indicate clearly answers that are cancelled, if any.
Where applicable, show clearly steps taken in arriving at the solutions and
indicate ALL assumptions.
Do not open this Question Booklet until instructed.

Note :

i.

There are ELEVEN (11) pages in this Question Booklet

ii.

including the cover page.


Graph Paper and Formulae Book is provided.
Universiti

Teknologi

PETRONAS

EAB/EBB 2123
1.

a.

A piece of radioactive material contains N=5x

1015nuclei. Each nucleus has

a probability p =10-15to emit an alpha particle in the next minute. Assume


that the nuclei emit alpha particles independently of each other and that each
nucleus can emit at most one alpha particle in the next minute. Let X be the
number of alpha particles are emitted by the piece in the next minutes.

i.

What is the probability mass function of X? Use it to compute E(X).


[3 marks]

ii.

What distribution can you use to approximate the probability that at least
k-alpha particles are emitted by the piece of radioactive material in the
next minute? Use it to compute P(X s 10).
[4 marks]

iii.

What is the probability that exactly 7-alpha particles are emitted in the
next minute?

[3 marks]

EAB/EBB 2123
sales firm receives on average three calls per minute on its toll-free

bA

number. Assume

that the number of calls per minute has a Poisson

distribution and the variable Tas the time between two successive calls.
i.

What is the probability density function of T? Find the mean and

variance of T?
[4 marks]
ii.

Calculate the probability that at least 30 seconds will elapse between


any two calls.
[3 marks]

iii.

What is the probability that T less than 50 second given that T is


greater than 30 seconds?
[3 marks]

EAB/EBB 2123
2.

a.

A manufacturer of paper used for packaging requires a minimum strength


of 20 pounds per square inch. For the purpose of quality control, a random
sample of 10 pieces of paper is selected every hour from the production
line and a strength measurement is recorded for each. Records have
shown that the strength

measurements

are normally distributed with

standard deviation equals 2 pounds per square inch.


Determine the appropriate distribution of the sample mean of 10 test
pieces of paper.
[2 marks]

ii.

If the mean of the population of strength measurements is 21 pounds


per square inch, find the probability that the sample mean of 10 test
pieces of paper does not meet the requirements.
[4 marks]

iii.

Suppose the probability of sample mean meeting the requirement is


95%, estimate the true mean of paper strength.
[4 marks]

EAB/EBB 2123
A new production line is designed to dispense 16 grams of a perfume into

b.

each bottle. There will be some variability in the random variable X, the
amount of perfume dispensed per bottle. After calibration of the machine,
four observations on X are taken each hour for 24-hour period. The sample
mean and the sample range for each of 24 samples are given in TABLE
Q2(b).

TABLE Q2(b)

i.

Sample

Sample

Sample

Sample

Sample

Sample

number

mean

range

number

mean

range

13.5

20

11

6.25

12

17.25

19

12

13.75

16

11.5

11

13

21.0

18

12.5

21

14

17.75

16

10.75

18

15

7.25

16

19.5

14

16

12.25

26

14.25

13

17

17.0

21

12.75

13

18

14.5

19

13.0

25

19

4.5

11

10

22.75

23

20

12.75

Use the given data to construct the Y- chart and the R- chart and
plot the data. Is the process in control?
[8 marks]

ii

Assuming that the process is in control, estimate the process mean


and standard deviation.

[2 marks]

EAB/EBB 2123
3.

a.

A company that produces a new petrol additive claims that the additive
increases the average petrol mileage. A fleet of Proton cars obtains an
average of 448 km per tank full of petrol without this additive. A random
sample of 25 Proton cars is selected. Each car is driven on a tank full of
petrol with this additive added to the petrol. The sample mean for these 25
cars is found to be 453 km per tank full of petrol, with a standard deviation
of 22 km.
Perform the hypothesis test to determine if the average mileage per
tank full of petrol increases with the additive.

Is this increase

statistically significant?
[5 marks]

ii.

At 5% significant level, carry out a hypothesis test on a sample of 100


cars instead of 25 cars and with the same values of the means and
standard deviation. What is your conclusion?

[5 marks]
iii.

Suppose it is recommended that the additive be used every 3000 km.


Given that the price of petrol is RM2.50 per liter and the petrol tank
holds 16 liters of petrol, and you have to pay for the additive, is it
worth using it?

[4 marks]

EAB/EBB 2123
b.

Among those women who are diagnosed to have early-stage breast


cancer, one-third eventually dies of the disease. Suppose the Perak Health
Department initiated a screening program for early detection of breast
cancer aimed to increase the survival rate of those diagnosed to have the
disease. 164 women from a random sample of 200 who were screened
and who were diagnosed to have cancer survived the disease.
i.

Identify the possible random variables in this study.


[2 marks]

ii.

Is the screening program effective?


[4 marks]

EAB/EBB 2123
4.

a.

An engineer is interested to study the effect of alignment optical chips


method (A) and solder bump size (B) on the circuit boards. Two alignment
methods and two different solder bump sizes are used. Two experimental
tests were done at each of the four combinations. The data are as follows:
TABLE Q4
Solder bump size (in m)

Alignment method

(B)

(A)

Method 1

i.

Method 2

75 m

4.60

4.53

1.05 1.00

150 m

2.33

2.44

0.82 0.95

Construct the design matrix in TABLE Q4.

[4 marks]
ii.

Perform the analysis of variance with a=0.05.


[7 marks]

iii.

Test for the main and interaction effects using a=0.05.


conclusion?

What is your

[3 marks]

EAB/EBB 2123
b.

From a sample data on the reaction time, Y (in hours) and retort chamber
temperature, X (in F), the following summary values, based on 15
observations were obtained:
X=3525,

XY=10058, ZX2

Y=43.1,

=835375, ZY2 =124.63

Determine the

i.

slope and intercept of the estimated line, f=a+

X ;
[2 marks]

ii.

coefficient of determination, R2;


[2 marks]

iii.

predicted reaction time for a temperature of 2400 F.


[2 marks]

EAB/EBB 2123

5.

a.

In a group of 40 UTP Staff, 10 of them are healthy and every person of the
remaining 30 has either high blood pressure or high level of cholesterol or
both. However 15 of the staff have high blood pressure and 25 have high
level of cholesterol. Let A be the event of high blood pressure and B be the
event of high level of cholesterol. If a staff is selected randomly from this
group, what is the probability that he/she has

i.

both, high blood pressure and a high level of cholesterol?


[3 marks]

ii.

high blood pressure only?


[2 marks]

iii.

high level of cholesterol only?


[2 marks]

iv.

either high blood pressure or high level of cholesterol?


[2 marks]

b.

A volley ball tournament will be organised in UTP. Each department has to


form randomly, a team of 6 people from a group of 6 men and 4 women.
What is the percentage that the team has

i.

3 men and 3 women;


[2 marks]

ii.

4 men and 2 women;


[2 marks]

iii.

Based on parts (i) and (ii), which team will you choose if you are the
team leader? Justify your answer.

[2 marks]

10

EAB/EBB 2123
C.

Three machines M1, M2 and M3 produce identical items of which 2%, 5%


and 3% are defective respectively. On a certain day, M, has produced
45%, M2 has produced 25% and M3 has produced 30% of the total output.
Let F be the event that the item is defective and A be the event that the
item is produced by Mi. If one item selected at random, what is the
probability that the item is

i.

defective,
[2 marks]

ii.

produced by M, or M2given that it was defective.


[3 marks]

- END OF PAPER -

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