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UNIVERSITI

TEKNOLOGI

PETRONAS

ilffim

..

WAVAl

..

COURSE

EAB2123/EBB2123

- PROBABILITY

06THMAY 2011 (FRIDAY)

DATE

TIME

& STATISTICS

INSTRUCTIONS TO CANDIDATES

1.

2.

3.

Begin EACH answer on a new page.

Indicate clearly answers that are cancelled, if any.

Where applicable, show clearly steps taken in arriving at the solutions and

indicate ALL assumptions.

Do not open this Question Booklet until instructed.

Note :

i.

ii.

Graph Paper and Formulae Book is provided.

Universiti

Teknologi

PETRONAS

EAB/EBB 2123

1.

a.

that the nuclei emit alpha particles independently of each other and that each

nucleus can emit at most one alpha particle in the next minute. Let X be the

number of alpha particles are emitted by the piece in the next minutes.

i.

[3 marks]

ii.

What distribution can you use to approximate the probability that at least

k-alpha particles are emitted by the piece of radioactive material in the

next minute? Use it to compute P(X s 10).

[4 marks]

iii.

What is the probability that exactly 7-alpha particles are emitted in the

next minute?

[3 marks]

EAB/EBB 2123

sales firm receives on average three calls per minute on its toll-free

bA

number. Assume

distribution and the variable Tas the time between two successive calls.

i.

variance of T?

[4 marks]

ii.

any two calls.

[3 marks]

iii.

greater than 30 seconds?

[3 marks]

EAB/EBB 2123

2.

a.

of 20 pounds per square inch. For the purpose of quality control, a random

sample of 10 pieces of paper is selected every hour from the production

line and a strength measurement is recorded for each. Records have

shown that the strength

measurements

Determine the appropriate distribution of the sample mean of 10 test

pieces of paper.

[2 marks]

ii.

per square inch, find the probability that the sample mean of 10 test

pieces of paper does not meet the requirements.

[4 marks]

iii.

95%, estimate the true mean of paper strength.

[4 marks]

EAB/EBB 2123

A new production line is designed to dispense 16 grams of a perfume into

b.

each bottle. There will be some variability in the random variable X, the

amount of perfume dispensed per bottle. After calibration of the machine,

four observations on X are taken each hour for 24-hour period. The sample

mean and the sample range for each of 24 samples are given in TABLE

Q2(b).

TABLE Q2(b)

i.

Sample

Sample

Sample

Sample

Sample

Sample

number

mean

range

number

mean

range

13.5

20

11

6.25

12

17.25

19

12

13.75

16

11.5

11

13

21.0

18

12.5

21

14

17.75

16

10.75

18

15

7.25

16

19.5

14

16

12.25

26

14.25

13

17

17.0

21

12.75

13

18

14.5

19

13.0

25

19

4.5

11

10

22.75

23

20

12.75

Use the given data to construct the Y- chart and the R- chart and

plot the data. Is the process in control?

[8 marks]

ii

and standard deviation.

[2 marks]

EAB/EBB 2123

3.

a.

A company that produces a new petrol additive claims that the additive

increases the average petrol mileage. A fleet of Proton cars obtains an

average of 448 km per tank full of petrol without this additive. A random

sample of 25 Proton cars is selected. Each car is driven on a tank full of

petrol with this additive added to the petrol. The sample mean for these 25

cars is found to be 453 km per tank full of petrol, with a standard deviation

of 22 km.

Perform the hypothesis test to determine if the average mileage per

tank full of petrol increases with the additive.

Is this increase

statistically significant?

[5 marks]

ii.

cars instead of 25 cars and with the same values of the means and

standard deviation. What is your conclusion?

[5 marks]

iii.

Given that the price of petrol is RM2.50 per liter and the petrol tank

holds 16 liters of petrol, and you have to pay for the additive, is it

worth using it?

[4 marks]

EAB/EBB 2123

b.

cancer, one-third eventually dies of the disease. Suppose the Perak Health

Department initiated a screening program for early detection of breast

cancer aimed to increase the survival rate of those diagnosed to have the

disease. 164 women from a random sample of 200 who were screened

and who were diagnosed to have cancer survived the disease.

i.

[2 marks]

ii.

[4 marks]

EAB/EBB 2123

4.

a.

method (A) and solder bump size (B) on the circuit boards. Two alignment

methods and two different solder bump sizes are used. Two experimental

tests were done at each of the four combinations. The data are as follows:

TABLE Q4

Solder bump size (in m)

Alignment method

(B)

(A)

Method 1

i.

Method 2

75 m

4.60

4.53

1.05 1.00

150 m

2.33

2.44

0.82 0.95

[4 marks]

ii.

[7 marks]

iii.

conclusion?

What is your

[3 marks]

EAB/EBB 2123

b.

From a sample data on the reaction time, Y (in hours) and retort chamber

temperature, X (in F), the following summary values, based on 15

observations were obtained:

X=3525,

XY=10058, ZX2

Y=43.1,

Determine the

i.

X ;

[2 marks]

ii.

[2 marks]

iii.

[2 marks]

EAB/EBB 2123

5.

a.

In a group of 40 UTP Staff, 10 of them are healthy and every person of the

remaining 30 has either high blood pressure or high level of cholesterol or

both. However 15 of the staff have high blood pressure and 25 have high

level of cholesterol. Let A be the event of high blood pressure and B be the

event of high level of cholesterol. If a staff is selected randomly from this

group, what is the probability that he/she has

i.

[3 marks]

ii.

[2 marks]

iii.

[2 marks]

iv.

[2 marks]

b.

form randomly, a team of 6 people from a group of 6 men and 4 women.

What is the percentage that the team has

i.

[2 marks]

ii.

[2 marks]

iii.

Based on parts (i) and (ii), which team will you choose if you are the

team leader? Justify your answer.

[2 marks]

10

EAB/EBB 2123

C.

and 3% are defective respectively. On a certain day, M, has produced

45%, M2 has produced 25% and M3 has produced 30% of the total output.

Let F be the event that the item is defective and A be the event that the

item is produced by Mi. If one item selected at random, what is the

probability that the item is

i.

defective,

[2 marks]

ii.

[3 marks]

- END OF PAPER -

11

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