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Probability

How likely something is to happen.
Many events can't be predicted with total
certainty. The best we can say is
how likely they are to happen, using the
idea of probability.

Probability
In general:
Number of ways it
can happen
Probability of an event
happening =
Total number of
outcomes

Tossing a Coin
When a coin is tossed, there
are two possible outcomes:

Example: the chances of rolling a "4" with a
die

heads (H) or

Number of ways it can happen: 1 (there is
only 1 face with a "4" on it)

tails (T)

Total number of outcomes: 6 (there are 6
faces altogether)

We say that the probability
of the coin landing H is ½.

1
So the probability =

And the probability of the
coin landing T is ½.

Throwing Dice
When a single die is
thrown, there are six
possible outcomes: 1,
2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
The probability of any
one of them is 1/6.

6
Example: there are 5 marbles in a bag: 4 are
blue, and 1 is red. What is the probability
that a blue marble gets picked?
Number of ways it can happen: 4 (there are 4
blues)
Total number of outcomes: 5 (there are 5
marbles in total)

4
So the probability =

= 0.8
5

c) If I flip a coin it will land heads up. b) I will not have to learn mathematics at school.. But when we actually try it we might get 48 heads. Probability does not tell us exactly what will happen.Probability Line We can show probability on a Probability Line : The probability of an event occurring is somewhere between impossible and certain. Probability Line Probability is the chance that something will happen.. but in most cases it will be a number near 50. We can also show the chance that something will happen: a) The sun will rise tomorrow. or 55 heads . or anything really. how many Heads will come up? Probability says that heads have a ½ chance. It can be shown on a line. As well as words we can use numbers Probability is always between 0 and 1 (such as fractions or decimals) to show the probability of something happening:  Impossible is zero Probability is Just a Guide  Certain is one. d) Choosing a red ball from a sack with 1 red ball and 3 green balls . it is just a guide Here are some fractions on the probability line: Example: toss a coin 100 times. so we can expect 50 Heads.

solid.maybe a green tie that is short and fat. The same is true of the other 14 original ties. etc. We use factorial notation for this. Imagine that you have a necktie sewing business.blue with 3 shape choices. You can make unique ties by changing any of the following factors: color (5 options) and shape (3 options). if the first event can occur 3 ways. Each 'slot' gets only one item. category will be selected. or polka-dot. combination) Definition The fundamental counting principle is a mathematical rule that allows you to find the number of ways that a combination of events can occur. ties can you make now? Simply imagine one of the possibilities you had originally . solid. How many unique ties can you make? One way to think about it is by making a diagram. For example. red with 3 shape choices. We write "n factorial" with an exclamation mark as follows: \displaystyle{n}!n! . This multiplication method works any time you have several factors (color. and design) and each of those factors can be combined with each other in any way possible. shape. Now suppose that you also add 3 pattern choices to your tie options: striped. we need a simple way of writing the product of all the positive whole numbers up to a given number.Each of the 5 colors can be made into 3 shapes . and the third event can occur 5 ways. then you can find out the number of unique combinations by multiplying: 3 * 4 * 5 = 60 unique combinations. This is because 0 is impossible (sure that something will not happen). There are 5 colors. By multiplying. The probability of an event will not be more than 1. now you have 15 * 3 = 45 different types of ties. You might think of it as permutation. That green short tie can now be made three ways: striped. the second event can occur 4 ways. categories and one out of several choices in each having several empty 'slots' to fill. You can use the fundamental counting Fundamental counting rule (multiplication) any time you have a set of principle (factorial notation value. How many Between 0 and 1   The probability of an event will not be less than 0. Definition of n! >> n factorial is defined as the product of all the integers from 1 to n (the order of multiplying does not matter) . you get the total number of paths that you can take through the diagram. You can make 15 different kinds of ties (5 * 3). or polka-dot. This is because 1 is certain that something will happen. So. >>> Factorial Notation For the following sections on counting.

If you fill in the 6 'slots' with the number of choices and multiply.(3)(2)(1) A Few Examples Suppose the slots represent courses in a meal you're going to order.n! = (n)(n − 1)(n − 2). starting in the Permutations section. and order being important. The two key things to notice about permutations are that there is no repetition of objects allowed and that order is important. The r is the number of objects your actually using. Since a permutation is the number of ways you can arrange objects. The denominator in the formula will always divide evenly into the numerator.. the first two slots must be letters (26 choices) and the remaining 4 slots must be numbers (10 choices each). Again. That is: \displaystyle\frac{{{10}!}} {{{5}!}}\ne{2}!5!10!≠2! We use factorial notation throughout this chapter. you could use the formula for the number of permutations.600 possible unique meals Another situation might be the creation of license plates. you might have 3 appetizer choices. you get the number of license plates you can make: 26 * 26 * 10 * 10 * 10 * 10 = 6. without repetition.760. This time. 10 beverage choices. To find out how many unique 6-course meals you can make. it will always be a whole number.000 license plates NOTE: We conclude from this answer and the answer for (d) above that we cannot simply cancel a fraction containing factorials. Another definition of permutation is the number of such arrangements that are possible. if you didn't actually need a listing of all the permutations. If there are 6 courses. and 3 dessert choices. The n value is the total number of objects to chose from. fill in the blanks with the number of choices and multiply: 3 * 2 * 4 * 5 * 10 * 3 = 3. 2 soup choices. 4P4 = 4! / (4-4)! = 4! / 0! = 24 / 1 = 24. along with 5 main course choices. Examples of permutations: Example 1: List all permutations of the letters ABCD ABC D ABD C ACB D ACD B ADB C ADC B BAC D BAD C BCA D BCD A BDA C BDC A CAB DAB D C CAD DAC B B CBA DBA D C CBD DBC A A CDA DCA B B CDB DCB A A Now.. and 4 salad choices. you have 6 slots to fill. >>> Permutations A permutation is an arrangement of objects. . There are 4 objects and you're taking 4 at a time.

>>> Combinations Combinations were briefly introduced in section 7. it is found under the Math menu. It is shown as nPr. ABC ABD ACD BCD . However. Enter the value for n first. List all combinations of the letters ABCD in groups of 3. then the function. This gives us a shortcut for finding a permutation by hand. P(n. Listed below each of those combinations are the six permutations that are equivalent as combinations. 4P3 = 4! / (4-3)! = 4! / 1! = 24 / 1 = 24. but we will go into more detail on them here. and finally the value for r. ACD. and BCD). That is.1. Those terms will divide out.5. n Pr = first r factors of n! Finding Permutations with the Calculator There is a permutation function on the calculator. There are only four combinations (ABC. The n and r in the formula stand for the total number of objects to choose from and the number of objects in the arrangement. On the TI-82 and TI-83. there will always be n-r terms in common between the numerator and the denominator once the factorials are expanded. A combination is an arrangement of objects. the Probability Submenu.This also gives us another definition of permutations. leaving you with the first r terms of the expansion in the numerator. ABD. Another definition of combination is the number of such arrangements that are possible. The key points to a combination are that there is no repetition of objects allowed and the order isn't important. without repetition. Finding Permutations by Hand By hand. you could use the formula for the number of permutations. if you didn't actually need a listing of all the permutations. you can plug the values for n and r into the expression involving factorials and then simplify the ratio of the factorials as discussed in section 7. and order not being important. respectively. There are 4 objects and you're taking 3 at a time.n) = n! Example 2: List all three letter permutations of the letters in the word HAND HAN HNA HAD HDA HND HDN AHN ANH AHD ADH AND ADN NHD NDH NAH NHA NAD NDA DHA DAH DAN DNA DHN DNH Now. A permutation when you include all n objects is n!. and then choice 2.

Now. None of the six can be repeated and the order of the six is not important. Is it easier to find C(100. there are C(13. For example.308 possible hands. Since there are 13 diamonds and we want 2 of them.5). of these 54 balls. you can plug the values for n and r into the expression involving factorials and then simplify the ratio of the factorials as discussed in section 7. the number of possibilities will be C(48. That makes it a combination: C(54. we use the fundamental counting principle and multiply 286 and 78 together to get 22. and then choice 3. the Probability Submenu. 1998.6) = 12.3) = 286 ways to get the 3 clubs. then the function. there are C(13.165. The old Illinois Lottery had 54 balls. You would rather divide out 7! than 5!. the Illinois Lottery will be changing to 48 balls. there is no repetition of cards in a hand. Since we want them both to occur at the same time. Cr = (first r factors of n!) / (last r factors of n!) n It turns out the last r factors of n! is really just r!. Finding Combinations by Hand By hand. so we have a combination again. Since there are 13 clubs and we want 3 of them. you could also find C(12. and then work with that combination.827.2) = 78 ways to get the 2 diamonds. you're going to have a 12! in the numerator and both a 7! and 5! in the denominator.7) = C(12. Finding Combinations with the Calculator There is a permutation function on the calculator.6) = 25. . by hand it does.5).2) or C(100. because it leaves you less to work with.7). you want the larger amount of terms to divide out. six are chosen. and the order doesn't matter.512 How many 5 card poker hands are there with 3 clubs and 2 diamonds? Well. That is easy to see from the formula involving factorials. and finally the value for r. As an example. Examples of Combinations We experienced combinations with Pascal's Triangle. but there are other places they occur.1.271. if you need to find C(12. I was told that on January 17. pick whichever r value is smaller. Take whichever one is easier to find.ABC ACB BAC BCA CAB CBA ABD ADB BAD BDA DAB DBA ACD ADC CAD CDA DAC DCA BCD BDC CBD CDB DBC DCB We learned in the last section that combinations were symmetric. Enter the value for n first.98)? On the calculator it doesn't make much difference. it is found under the Math menu. On the TI-82 and TI-83. six of which are chosen. Either way. So. C(12. It is shown as nCr. To simplify the ratio.

Distinguishable Permutations Consider all the permutations of the letters in the word BOB. P=2 for a total of 11 letters. some of them are indistinguishable from each other. while there are six permutations. take the total number of letters factorial divide by the frequency of each letter factorial. OBB. S=4. To find the number of distinguishable permutations. and BBO. BBO. OBB. I=4. + nk = N Basically. If you look at the permutations that are distinguishable.Difference between Permutations and Combinations The distinguishing feature between Permutations and Combinations is not whether or not there is repetition.800 permutations of the 11 letters in MISSISSIPPI. Big N is the total number of letters.650. OBB. and BOB. there should be 3! = 6 different permutations. Neither one allows repetition. then you must use the Fundamental Counting Principle. the little n's are the frequencies of each different (distinguishable) letter. Be sure you put parentheses around the denominator so that you end up dividing by each of the factorials. The difference between the two is whether or not order is important. If you have a problem where you can repeat objects... you get that there are 34. but it's better than listing out all 39. PERMUTATIONS AND COMBINATIONS The Fundamental Principle of Counting Factorial representation of permutations Permutation problems Section 2 Combinations Factorial representation of combinations Combination problems where n1 + n2 + . M=1.650 distinguishable permutations in the word MISSISSIPPI. I don't want to list them out. BBO. Since there are three letters. Now. You may want to do some simplification by hand first. Those permutations are BOB. you only have three BOB. The sum of all combinations Permutations BY THE PERMUTATIONS of the letters abc we mean all of their possiblearrangements: abc acb Example of distinguishable permutations . you can't use Permutations or Combinations. When you simplify that ratio of factorials.916. 11! / ( 1! * 4! * 4! * 2! ) = 11! / ( 1 * 24 * 24 * 2 ) = 34. Find the number of distinguishable permutations of the letters in the word MISSISSIPPI Here are the frequencies of the letters.

c. For example. in m different ways. imagine putting the letters a. After that has happened. Then there are 5 ways to fill the first spot. "4! is the number of permutations of 4 different things taken from a total of 4 different things.") In general. For example. the total number of ways they can be next to each other is 2· 5! = 240. there are 4 ways to fill the third. b. There are 5! such permutations. there are 3 ways to choose the second.) There are 6 permutations of three different things. Permutations of less than all . this enormous number was not found by counting them. It is derived theoretically from the Fundamental Principle of Counting: If something can be chosen. after that has happened. As the number of things (letters) increases. There are 4 ways to choose the first. Then we will be permuting the 5 units qe. u a. then the number of ways of choosing both of them is m · n. They have 5! permutations. something else can be chosen in ndifferent ways. Let us now consider the total number of permutations of all four letters. a) In how many of them is r the second letter? _ r _ _ _ _ b) In how many of them are q and e next to each other? Solution. We can draw the first in 4 different ways: either a or b or c or d. Therefore. There are 6! permutations of the 6 letters of the wordsquare. Now. The number of permutations of n different things taken n at a time is n!. Five different books are on a shelf. and then drawing two of them in succession. or can happen. to each of those 4 ways there correspond 3. their permutations grow astronomically. ba means that b was chosen first and a second. (See Topic 19. Therefore the number of permutations of 4 different things is cab 4· 3· 2· 1 = 24 cba Thus the number of permutations of 4 different things taken 4 at a time is 4!. 3 ways remain to choose the second. 2 ways to choose the (To say "taken 4 at a time" is a convention. That is.600. Example 1. We mean. there are 4· 3 or 12 possible ways to choose two letters from four. Therefore. 3 to fill the fourth. In how many different ways could you arrange them? Answer. and 1 way to choose the last.bac bca third. and so on. and so on. d into a hat. 5! = 1· 2· 3· 4· 5 = 120 Example 2. or be done. r. if twelve different things are permuted.. a) Let r be the second letter. But q and e could be together as eq.001. ab ba ca da ac bc cb db ad bd cd dc ab means that a was chosen first and b second. After that has happened. and. s. b) Let q and e be next to each other as qe. then the number of their permutations is 479.

. To cover the answer again. When the 6!'s cancel. Problem 2. zxy. Now. Example 3. and the lower factorial is the difference of the indices. . the numerator becomes 10· 9· 8· 7. pass your mouse over the colored area. click "Refresh" ("Reload"). . We call this "The number of permutations of 4 different things taken 2 at a time. . and therefore the 5!'s cancel. there are 8 ways to choose the first. 8P3 means "the number of permutations of 8 different things taken 3 at a time. How many permutations are there of the letters pqrs? 4! = 1· 2· 3· 4 = 24 . For example. and 6 ways to choose the third. . yxz. . Calculate nPn. nPk = (n − k) (1) ! The upper factorial is the upper index of P. xyz. . Solution. = 8! To see the answer. 2. Thedefinition 0! = 1 makes line (1) above valid for all values of k: k = 0. .of nthings taken k at a time. xzy.it is the total number of permutations of n things: n!.We have seen that the number of ways of choosing 2 letters from 4 is 4· 3 = 12." And 8P3 = 8· 7· 6 = 56· 6 = (8 − 3)! 5! In general. Express 10P4 in terms of factorials. The upper index4 indicates the first factor. then. 10P4 = 10! 6! The upper factorial is the upper index. = 336 For. 7 ways to choose the second. . This is the number of permutations of 10 different things taken 4 at a time. In general. 1. . Problem 1. yzx. . . 8! 5! Solution. 8· 7· 6 is 8P3. . that 8P3 can be expressed in terms of factorials as 8P3 = 8! nPn = n! n! n! = = = n! (n − n)! 0! 1 nPn is the number of permutations of n different things taken n at a time -. We see. can be represented as follows: n! . nPk = n(n − 1)(n − 2)· · · to k factors Factorial representation = 8· 7· 6 5! is a factor of 8!. Write down all the permutations of xyz. zyx. We saw in the Topic on factorials." We will symbolize this as 4P2: 4P2 = 4· 3 The lower index 2 indicates the number of factors. the number of arrangements -permutations -. . while the lower factorial is the difference of the indices. 50· 6 + 6· 6 Example 4. . n.

and permute the remaining 6. in how many different a) ways could you draw one out? 5 b) When one of them has been drawn. there are 6! such arrangements. Therefore.040 Again.num. so remove it. 3. so that the total number of odd numbers is 2· 18 = 36. Consequently. 4. a) How many different arrangements are there of the letters of the word numbers? c) How many 5-digit odd numbers can you make with 0. then. 2 ways to choose the third. 3. e. 1. b. in how many ways could you a) draw a second? 4 c) Therefore. 5· 4· 3 = 60 Problem 6. the total number of odd numbers that end in 1. there will be 3 ways to choose the second position. and c) no digit is repeated? 7! = 5. Therefore. in which the Problem 5. for the first position. Since 0 cannot be first. b) How many of those arrangements have b as the first letter? Set b as the first letter. and so on. But in each one of them. we may choose either 2. _ _ _ _ 1. c) How many have b as the last letter -. d) What is the meaning of the symbol 5P3? b) first digit is not 0. the total number of arrangements in which n. Therefore. Evaluate a) 6P3 = 120 b) 10P2 = 90 c) 7P5 = 2520 . and no digit is repeated? The number of permutations of 5 different things taken 3 at a time. there will be 4 ways to fill the second spot. there are 3! rearrangements of num. s. Place 1. 3 ways to fill the third. and 1 way to choose the fourth. or 4. it must end in either 1 or 3. e) Evaluate 5P3. r.or in any specified position? The same. b. Hence. c. is 4· 4! = 4· 24 = 96. Since the number must be odd. 2. d) How many will have n. 6!. is 3· 3· 2· 1 = 18. It will now be one of 4 remaining digits.Problem 3. Therefore. is 3!· 5! = 6· 120 = 720. Now replace 0. so that there are 3 ways to choose the first digit. a) If the five letters a. in the last position. Then there will be 4 ways to choose the first digit. u. and m together? Begin by permuting the 5 things -. u. then. and m are together. The same analysis holds if we place 3 in the last position. remove it. The total number of 5-digit numbers. Problem 4. a) How many different arrangements (permutations) are there of the digits 01234? 5! = 120 b) How many 5-digit numbers can you make of those digits. in how many ways could you draw two letters? 5· 4 = 20 This number is denoted by 5P2. They will have 5! permutations. d. e are put into a hat. Now replace 0. 0 cannot be first.