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Probability

How likely something is to happen.
Many events can't be predicted with total
certainty. The best we can say is
how likely they are to happen, using the
idea of probability.

Probability
In general:
Number of ways it
can happen
Probability of an event
happening =
Total number of
outcomes

Tossing a Coin
When a coin is tossed, there
are two possible outcomes:

Example: the chances of rolling a "4" with a
die

Number of ways it can happen: 1 (there is
only 1 face with a "4" on it)

tails (T)

Total number of outcomes: 6 (there are 6
faces altogether)

We say that the probability
of the coin landing H is ½.

1
So the probability =

And the probability of the
coin landing T is ½.

Throwing Dice
When a single die is
thrown, there are six
possible outcomes: 1,
2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
The probability of any
one of them is 1/6.

6
Example: there are 5 marbles in a bag: 4 are
blue, and 1 is red. What is the probability
that a blue marble gets picked?
Number of ways it can happen: 4 (there are 4
blues)
Total number of outcomes: 5 (there are 5
marbles in total)

4
So the probability =

= 0.8
5

c) If I flip a coin it will land heads up. b) I will not have to learn mathematics at school.. But when we actually try it we might get 48 heads. Probability does not tell us exactly what will happen.Probability Line We can show probability on a Probability Line : The probability of an event occurring is somewhere between impossible and certain. Probability Line Probability is the chance that something will happen.. but in most cases it will be a number near 50. We can also show the chance that something will happen: a) The sun will rise tomorrow. or 55 heads . or anything really. how many Heads will come up? Probability says that heads have a ½ chance. It can be shown on a line. As well as words we can use numbers Probability is always between 0 and 1 (such as fractions or decimals) to show the probability of something happening:  Impossible is zero Probability is Just a Guide  Certain is one. d) Choosing a red ball from a sack with 1 red ball and 3 green balls . it is just a guide Here are some fractions on the probability line: Example: toss a coin 100 times. so we can expect 50 Heads.

solid.maybe a green tie that is short and fat. The same is true of the other 14 original ties. etc. We use factorial notation for this. Imagine that you have a necktie sewing business.blue with 3 shape choices. You can make unique ties by changing any of the following factors: color (5 options) and shape (3 options). if the first event can occur 3 ways. Each 'slot' gets only one item. category will be selected. or polka-dot. combination) Definition The fundamental counting principle is a mathematical rule that allows you to find the number of ways that a combination of events can occur. ties can you make now? Simply imagine one of the possibilities you had originally . solid. How many unique ties can you make? One way to think about it is by making a diagram. For example. red with 3 shape choices. We write "n factorial" with an exclamation mark as follows: \displaystyle{n}!n! . This multiplication method works any time you have several factors (color. and design) and each of those factors can be combined with each other in any way possible. shape. Now suppose that you also add 3 pattern choices to your tie options: striped. we need a simple way of writing the product of all the positive whole numbers up to a given number.Each of the 5 colors can be made into 3 shapes . and the third event can occur 5 ways. then you can find out the number of unique combinations by multiplying: 3 * 4 * 5 = 60 unique combinations. This is because 0 is impossible (sure that something will not happen). There are 5 colors. By multiplying. The probability of an event will not be more than 1. now you have 15 * 3 = 45 different types of ties. You might think of it as permutation. That green short tie can now be made three ways: striped. the second event can occur 4 ways. categories and one out of several choices in each having several empty 'slots' to fill. You can use the fundamental counting Fundamental counting rule (multiplication) any time you have a set of principle (factorial notation value. How many Between 0 and 1   The probability of an event will not be less than 0. Definition of n! >> n factorial is defined as the product of all the integers from 1 to n (the order of multiplying does not matter) . you get the total number of paths that you can take through the diagram. You can make 15 different kinds of ties (5 * 3). or polka-dot. This is because 1 is certain that something will happen. So. >>> Factorial Notation For the following sections on counting.