12th International Conference on Urban Drainage, Porto Alegre/Brazil, 11-16 September 2011

A methodology to assess dry weather flow pattern uncertainty for

integrated urban drainage modelling
J. P. Rodrguez1,2*, M. A. Daz-Granados2, J. C. Penagos3, N. McIntyre1, S. Achleitner4 and
. Maksimovi1
1

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, UK

2
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Universidad de los Andes, Bogot,
Colombia
3
Water and Wastewater Utilities of Bogot, EAAB, Bogot, Colombia
4
Unit of Hydraulic Engineering, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
*Corresponding author, e-mail jrodrigu@imperial.ac.uk

ABSTRACT
Inclusion of wastewater quality processes in sewer system modelling came together with
recent progress on integrated urban drainage modelling, and this is allowing the development
and application of many software tools. However, in general there is a lack of water quality
data to support such applications as concentrations of pollutants are usually monitored at very
low intervals in both space and time. In this paper, a methodology to generate diurnal
variations of wastewater flow rates and pollutant concentrations for ungauged urban subcatchments under dry weather conditions is described. To represent daily pattern variability a
stochastic model is proposed allowing the uncertainty in characterising sub-catchment
outflows to be modelled. Initial results demonstrate that the methodology is able to produce
realistic confidence bounds.

KEYWORDS
Bogots urban drainage system, City Drain toolbox, DWF patterns, Integrated urban
drainage modelling, Matlab, Time series generation

INTRODUCTION
In much of the developed world, environmental standards have forced the formulation of river
basin management plans for achieving good water quality status on a catchment-wide basis
(Barth and Fawell, 2001; Griffiths, 2002). These standards, such as the EU Water Framework
Directive, have introduced new ways of assessing point pollution released from urban areas
which are based on a stream standard and no longer based on an emission standard (e.g.
De Toffol et al., 2005; Freni et al., 2009a). Clearly, identification of suitable water quality
policy must take account of the uncertainties associated with both the driving forces and the
validity of the models (McIntyre et al., 2003). Nevertheless, complex interacting processes
among several subsystems (i.e. sewer system, waste water treatment plants WWTPs and
receiving water courses) and the unknown spatial and temporal heterogeneities in urban
drainage systems are generally too many to be accurately observed or modelled (Freni et al.
2009b; Freni et al. 2011).
Dealing with urban drainage modelling uncertainties
Although modelling-based performance assessment of urban drainage systems is subject to
high uncertainties, it is common to neglect uncertainty in decision-making processes during
planning, design, operation and management stages (Bertrand-Krajewski and Muste, 2008).
However, uncertainty analysis is essential for appropriate application of any numerical
environmental model to decision-making (McIntyre et al., 2002). It is of high importance for

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12th International Conference on Urban Drainage, Porto Alegre/Brazil, 11-16 September 2011
understanding the sources of error in the modelling process, to define priorities for model
improvement, and for assessing the risk when model results are used in practical decisions.
Such analysis can only focus on the quantifiable uncertainty and the real uncertainty might
be larger because the complexity of the physical phenomena is not matched by our knowledge
or quality of data (Willems, 2008). Recently, an increased interest has developed for
quantifying and assessing different types of uncertainties in integrated urban drainage
modelling regarding not only quantity but quality variables (e.g. Willems, 2008; Freni et al.,
2009a; Freni et al., 2009b; Schellart et al., 2010). In general terms it has been concluded that:
(a) uncertainty contribution by water quality sub-models in an integrated modelling approach
can be an order of magnitude higher than that for flow sub-models (Willems, 2008; Freni et
al., 2009a); (b) the importance of different sub-models progressively grows as they become
closer to the analysed model output (Freni et al., 2009a, Freni et al., 2009b); (c) the accuracy
of water quality simulations can be enhanced by good estimation of water quantity variables
(Freni et al., 2009a); (d) urban drainage integrated models are highly parameterized and
uncertainty propagates differently depending on sub-model complexity (Freni et al., 2009b);
(e) low data availability leads to larger equifinality between parameters (Freni et al., 2009b).
However, most of previous uncertainty-related research has been mainly focused on assessing
uncertainties during wet weather periods. Consequently dry weather flow (DWF) behaviour
within sewer systems has been commonly assumed as deterministic and little attention has
been paid to its variability in terms of quantity and quality. Nevertheless, understanding and
quantifying the intrinsic uncertainty in predicting DWF patterns can provide useful supporting
data for integrated urban drainage management and modelling (Friedler and Butler, 1996).
This is even more of importance when dealing with large and complex drainage networks,
such as the case of Bogot city, the capital of Colombia (Rodrguez et al., 2008).
On the importance of assessing DWF pattern uncertainty
Previous research has presented comprehensive reviews of impacts on receiving water quality
due to pollutant releases from urban drainage systems (e.g. Lijklema et al., 1993; House et al.,
1993). As a consequence of these impacts, the direct discharge of urban dry weather
wastewater flows into receiving waters is no longer generally acceptable (Vollertsen and
Hvitved-Jacobsen, 2000). In many developed countries the wastewater infrastructure is nearly
complete, in the sense that almost all the sewage is collected and treated to a certain extent. In
contrast, Bogot city only has one WWTP in operation. The Salitre WWTP, which was built
between 1997 and 2000, has 4 m3 s-1 of treatment capacity (roughly 25% of the total amount
of wastewater generated in Bogot) using physical/chemical treatment. Local environmental
standards demand at least a treatment performance of 40% regarding the organic load and
60% in the case of the sediment load. In 2007, the environmental authority and the local water
utility agreed to upgrade the Salitre WWTP (increasing the capacity to 8 m3 s-1 and adding
secondary treatment) and the construction of a new WWTP in the south-west of the city. For
design and future operation of these new installations, a good understanding of the flow and
water quality characteristics of the Bogot urban drainage system is required for both dry and
wet weather conditions.
The potential benefits of a coupled operation of the sewer system and the WWTP, guided by
what is best for the river water quality, are well recognized (Langeveld, 2004). A sensible
way forward in developing countries, which are initiating building of treatment infrastructure,
is to start integrated analysis at an early stage. It is not feasible to build costly WWTPs which
are not properly integrated to the sewer system and which are not solving the river pollution
problems (Camacho and Daz-Granados, 2003). Consequently, integrated modelling is needed
to understand and predict the behaviour and performance of the integrated system. This is in

A methodology to assess dry weather flow pattern uncertainty

12th International Conference on Urban Drainage, Porto Alegre/Brazil, 11-16 September 2011
order to assess the effects of pressures exerted within the catchment, to establish reference
conditions, to design monitoring programs, to perform operational planning, as an instrument
for cost-effective implementation of measures and to assess impacts to produce management
plans and a decision-making framework (Daz-Granados et al., 2009).
Setting-up an integrated modelling framework under data scarcity
There are a variety of modelling approaches to describe water motion as well as the transport
and conversion of pollutants. The combination of sub-models with different complexities
through a modular building structure can help to facilitate integrated modelling. Achleitner et
al. (2007) developed an open source toolbox for simulation of urban drainage systems. This
model - named City Drain - has been realized within Matlab/Simulink and is being used,
customized and implemented for Bogot city (Daz-Granados et al, 2009; Rodrguez et al.,
2010). For model building, a schematic description of Bogots urban drainage, including
components and interactions, was performed using a GIS platform. It was used to define
spatial units (or sub-catchments) for sewer management and operational purposes. The model
includes about 469 units, comprising 89 rural, 106 combined sewer and 274 separate sewer
sub-catchments. Complementary to the sub-catchments, the integrated model also includes
other components such as reservoirs, natural wetlands, pumping stations, combined sewer
overflow structures, urban rivers and the WWTP (Daz-Granados et al, 2009). As part of
model development a stochastic generator of DWF outflows from sewer sub-catchments
(combined and foul systems) was implemented. This paper focuses on this DWF generator.
The generator is the basis for DWF pattern extrapolation to ungauged units for integrated
modelling purposes: due to cost and operational constraints comprehensive field collection of
data for characterising DWF outflows from each sewer sub-catchment is not feasible.
Available methodologies for estimating DWF patterns and their limitations
It is well known that the inflow to wastewater collection systems, comprising residential,
official, commercial and industrial wastewater DWF, infiltration and storm runoff, exhibits
considerable time variations in terms of both quantity and quality. This dynamic behaviour
results from the random usage of different appliances, with frequency of use being related to
the time of day. Although observed flow during dry weather periods has a repetitive-like
diurnal pattern at urban sub-catchment outfalls, it is still subject to variability (Butler and
Graham, 1995). Previously, different methodologies and models have been developed for
generating wastewater dynamic pollutant inputs. However, these methodologies pose some
limitations if used for generating input time series for large scale modelling purposes: (a) they
are highly data-demanding in terms of surveys of domestic/industrial/commercial appliance
usage (as the case of models proposed by Butler and Graham (1995) and Almeida et al.
(1999)) and (b) they directly model the WWTP influent without aiming to study the urban
drainage system behaviour in detail (Jeppsson et al., 2006). Recently, De Keyser et al. (2010)
developed a software tool which allows the linking of wastewater generating appliances,
using predefined patterns of flow rates and pollutant concentrations based on the literature.
Such a tool can be very useful if detailed information about sources is available but not insewer water quality measurements. In the case of Bogot, little detailed information about
source dynamics is available, but a reasonable number of in-sewer measurement stations have
been established. This paper proposes a stochastic generator of sub-catchment DWF daily
patterns aiming to make use of limited available in-sewer measurements for their
extrapolation to ungauged sewer sub-catchments. The focus is on flows, BOD, COD and TSS
time series. However, the generator can be considered as generic and can be also applied to
other pollutants.

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12th International Conference on Urban Drainage, Porto Alegre/Brazil, 11-16 September 2011

METHODS
Available data
Field data collection, focussing on dry weather, has been carried out by the Environmental
Engineering Research Centre at the Universidad de los Andes (CIIA) with support from the
local water utility (Empresa de Acueducto y Alcantarillado de Bogot - EAAB) within the
Bogots urban drainage system in three monitoring phases. Each phase has particular
characteristics in terms of time sampling resolution and analyzed determinants as presented in
Table 1. Phase one had as main purpose to characterize DWF dynamics of representative
untreated wastewater discharges into the receiving water courses. Phase 2 and phase 3 had
goals of characterising rural and sewer sub-catchment outflows, at some locations in open
storm water channels and also inflows entering into the El Salitre WWTP. Currently, data
from more than 100 sites within the Bogots urban drainage are available. However not all
sites characterise single sub-catchments and a limited amount of data can be used for
characterising DWF patterns. 24-hour period time series from 19 sites are used as generator
inputs and data from other 5 sites are used to assess and validate generator outputs. The rest of
the data (about 90 sites) correspond to downstream sites and are being used for
calibration/validation of the integrated model. It is clear that most of data are not concurrent
in time which introduces additional sources of uncertainties when characterising system
dynamics behaviour. However, in general terms time-concurrent spatially distributed
measurements are unlikely to be available for large urban drainage systems.
Table 1. Dry weather field data collection in Bogot
Phase
Number

Determinants

Time
Sampling
Resolution

Measurement
sites

Samples per site per

determinant (over a
period of 24 hours)

One
(2006)

Ammonium, Total Biochemical Oxygen Demand - BOD, Total

Chemical Oxygen Demand - COD, Total Phosphorus, Soluble
Phosphorus, Nitrates, Nitrites, Total Kjeldahl Nitrogen - TKN,
Total Suspended Solids - TSS, Volatile Suspended Solids - VSS,
Volatile Total Solids - VTS, Total Solids - TS, Sulphates,
Sulphurs

Hourly

12

24

Same as phase one but also soluble BOD and soluble COD

Variable

17

Aluminum, Arsenic, Ammonium, Barium, Bore, Cadmium,

Calcium, Copper, Total Chrome, Chloride, Total Phosphorus,
Total Iron, Magnesium, Molybdenum, Nickel, Total Nitrogen,
Lead, Silver, Potassium, Selenium, Sodium, Sulphurs, Sulphates
and Zinc

Daily
(composed)

Two
(2007)

Three
(2009)

82
3 Hours
8
(composed)
Each 3 Hours
Fat oil and grease, Coliform, E. coli
(non8
composed)
* At each sampling point the following hydrological and water quality variables were also monitored: dissolved oxygen (DO), pH,
temperature and water level. A sampling time resolution between 1 and 5 minutes was applied.
Total BOD, Total COD and TSS

Based on all modelled sub-catchments, Figure 1 shows area and water use cumulative
distribution functions (cdfs). For the Bogot case a comprehensive consumption database is
available, which allows the estimation of water use distribution in each sewer sub-catchment
(i.e. average annual bimonthly consumption rates made by residential, industrial, commercial
and official users). It can be noticed that the average sub-catchment has an area of about 85
Ha with a predominant residential use. However, there are areas were industrial consumption
reaches 70% of total consumption. Gauged sites providing generator input data have the
following characteristics: catchment areas ranging between 46 and 149 Ha with mean of 74
Ha; and mean daily flows between 0.010 and 0.046 m3 s-1 with mean of 0.025 m3 s-1.
Regarding water uses, they have residential use varying between 79% and 100 % with mean
value of 91%; industrial use between 0% and 9 % with mean value of 2%; commercial use

A methodology to assess dry weather flow pattern uncertainty

12th International Conference on Urban Drainage, Porto Alegre/Brazil, 11-16 September 2011

Cumulative probability

Cumulative probability

between 0% and 13 % with mean value of 5%; and official use between 0% and 14 % with
mean value of 2%. As there is not enough data to properly characterize highly industrialized
sub-catchments, the scope of this work is limited to predominantly residential areas with
limited interference from non-residential uses. Further monitoring campaigns and field data
collection are required for a detailed representation of highly industrialized areas.

(a)
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0

50

100

150

200

250

(b)

Residential Use
Industrial Use
Commercial Use
Official Use

0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0

20

40

60

80

100

Sub-catchment area (Ha)

Water Use (%)
Figure 1. Area (Ha) and water use (%) cumulative distribution functions (cdfs)

A stochastic generator of dry weather pollutant outflow for urban drainage modelling
Integrated models such as the Simulation of Biological Wastewater Systems software
(SIMBA, developed by ifak e.V. Magdeburg) use synthetic influent data for the WWTP
subsystem. This follows the recommendations of the Central European researchers
simulation group (HSG) based on a mathematical formulation of periodic patterns (i.e. 2nd
order Fourier series) for wastewater quantity and quality. Fourier series can be used in order
to generate diurnal variations of wastewater flow and concentrations when few or no
measurements are available (Langergraber et al., 2008). The aim is not to produce or
reproduce exact diurnal variations, but to generate input data with appropriate diurnal patterns
under scarce data conditions. The first step in the generation scheme is to fit a third order
Fourier series denoted as y, t to the measured data. The trigonometric Fourier series used in
this work has the form of,
y, t  a
 a cost w  b sint w    a cos3 t w  b sin3 t w

Where (for a particular measurement site i and a particular determinant j) a

, a , a , a , b ,
b , b are constants and w is the fundamental frequency of the signal. By optimising these
parameters, Fourier series are fitted to the measured time series divided by their
correspondent daily mean values. Figures 2a and 2c show examples of BOD pattern fitting
from two different sub-catchments. Figure 2a corresponds to a residential area while Figure
2c to a highly industrialized sub-catchment with about 70% of industrial water consumption.
It can be concluded that third order Fourier series are suitable periodic functions to describe
DWF flow patterns. A mean coefficient of determination of 0.80 with standard deviation of
0.14 was obtained across the 19 sites. BOD, COD and TSS have mean R2 values of about
0.86, 0.86 and 0.80 with standard deviations of 0.07, 0.12 and 0.09 respectively. As measured
and fitted time series are representative of different water uses within the sub-catchment
areas, it is proposed to disaggregate global time series into four individual time series (i.e.
residential, industrial, commercial and official). This is done by minimizing a constrained
nonlinear multivariate function denoted as f, t,
%

f, t   y, t  r R , t  i I, t  c C, t  o O, t#$
&'

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12th International Conference on Urban Drainage, Porto Alegre/Brazil, 11-16 September 2011

2.5

BOD (mg/l)

500

R2=0.86

400

1.5

300
1

200

0.5

100
0

0
0

12

18

BOD (t) / Mean BOD

600

BDO (t) / Mean BOD

Where (for a particular measurement site i and a particular determinant j) yi,j(t) is the hourly
fitted Fourier series, ri, ii, ci and oi are respectively the water consumption fractions for
residential, industrial, commercial and official uses (r  i  c  o  1). Ri,j (t), I i,j (t), C i,j
(t) and O i,j (t) are the diurnal profiles representative for the residential, industrial, commercial
and official uses. Figures 2b and 2d show examples of profile disaggregations for BOD.
Figure 2b corresponds to an entirely residential area while Figure 2d to a highly industrialized
sub-catchment but with some contributions from residential and commercial users (about 8%
and 20% respectively).
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0

Global

Residential

24

Time (Hours)

R2=0.77
1.5
1
0.5
0

12

18

Industrial
1.5

0.5

0
0

24

B. BDO(t)/Mean(BOD)

Global

12

18

24

Time (Hours)

Time (Hours)
A. Measured

24

2.5

18

C. Fitted (Fourier) to B

BOD (t) / Mean BOD

400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

B. BDO(t)/Mean(BOD)

BOD(t) / Mean BOD

BOD (mg/l)

A. Measured

12

Time (Hours)

C. Fitted (Fourier) to B

Figure 2. Pattern fitting using Fourier series and profile disaggregation.

After applying the disaggregation procedure to all input time series, 19 patterns per water use
per flow/quality determinant were produced. In order to estimate a representative pattern for
each water use and a particular determinant, all 19 site-specific patterns are considered but
proportionally to the consumption contribution. Consequently, those use-related patterns from
areas with large residential consumption proportionally contribute more to the residential use
representative profile. Representative diurnal profiles and their hourly standard deviation are
estimated according to the following expressions (residential contribution is used as example),
*R  t+%  .31 -. R.,0& and *SD_R  t+%  std *R  +8 t$ where std is the standard
12 &'

deviation.

12

.31 .

&'

'

Figure 3 shows obtained representative patterns for each water use and determinant. These
results seem to suggest that DWF patterns and their related standard deviation dynamics are
dependent on which quality determinant is being considered particularly if comparing
dissolved and particulate pollutants, raising doubts about the suitability of estimating quality
profiles based only on TSS patterns as proposed by Mannina and Viviani (2008).

A methodology to assess dry weather flow pattern uncertainty

12th International Conference on Urban Drainage, Porto Alegre/Brazil, 11-16 September 2011
2.0

0.45

b
Flow Pattern Standard Deviation

1.8

Flow (t) / Mean Flow

1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2

0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05

BOD Pattern Standard Deviation

1.6

BOD (t) / Mean BOD

0.30

1.8

1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2

0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
0.45

0.0
2.0

e
COD Pattern Standard Deviation

1.8
1.6
COD (t) / Mean COD

0.35

0.00
0.45

0.0
2.0

1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2

0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
0.70

0.0
2.0

1.8

0.65

1.6

0.60

1.4

0.55

1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0

12

18

Time (Hours)

24

TSS Pattern Standard Deviation

TSS (t) / Mean TSS

0.40

0.50
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10

Residential Use
Commercial Use

Industrial Use
Official Use

0.05
0.00
0

12

18

24

Time (Hours)

Figure 3. Representative patterns for each water use and determinant and their related standard deviation
dynamics.

It is clear that representative DWF patterns have large inherent uncertainties due to the quality
and extent of input data. Consequently, for extrapolation to ungauged sub-catchments it is
proposed to generate confidence bands based on a number of stochastically generated DWF
patterns using a model similar to that proposed by Thomas and Fiering (1962) for
synthesising stream flows. In this research we propose the following approach for estimating
random DWF patterns (using residential use as an example),
R  : 1  R  1  C1 C2  R  24#  SD_R  1 =1  C1 # ># for t  1

*
9
*R  : t+%  R  t  C1 R  : t  1  R  t  1#  SD_R  t =1  C1 # ># for 2 ? t ? 24
&'

Rodrguez et al.

12th International Conference on Urban Drainage, Porto Alegre/Brazil, 11-16 September 2011
Where Rj(t) signifies a random realization of determinant j at time t, C1 is the serial
correlation coefficient, > is a random normal variate with mean zero and standard deviation
one and,
C2  R  24 

SD_R  24
19

>

After the stochastic generation of the four DWF patterns (residential, industrial, commercial,
industrial) it is possible to estimate a global DWF for the ungauged sub-catchment i if it water
use distribution is known according to,
*DWFD, t+%  r R  : t  i I : t  c C : t  o O : t
&'

VALIDATION RESULTS
In order to assess generator capability to produce realistic DWF patterns but also to accurately
estimate their uncertainties some validation sub-catchments were analysed. Based on their
known water uses distribution, 1000 stochastically generated DWF patterns per site per
determinant were calculated. Figures 4a, 4b and 4c present results from a mainly residential
sub-catchment (about 92% of water use comes from residential users) while Figures 4d, 4e
and 4f correspond to a sewer sub-catchment with about 22% of commercial use. It is
important to notice that these two sites were monitored during Phase 3 (see Table 1) and
measured data correspond to 8 composed wastewater samples each three hours. It can be
concluded that for both cases the methodology produces realistic 95% confidence bounds as
most of measured data are included between them. However, it seems that the higher the nonresidential use interference the less capable the mean DWF pattern (averaging all stochastic
series) is of accurately describing measured data. Similar results were obtained for rest of the
validation sites.
2

1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2

1.6

TSS (t) / Mean TSS

1.6

1.8

COD (t) / Mean COD

BOD (t) / Mean BOD

2.5

1.8

1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6

1.5

0.5

0.4
0.2

0
1.8

0
2.2

1.6

3.5

1.2

1.6

1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0

TSS (t) / Mean TSS

1.8

COD (t) / Mean COD

BOD (t) / Mean BOD

1.4

1.4
1.2
1
0.8

12

18

0.5

0.2

0
0

Average

1.5

24

Time (Hours)
Measured

0.6
0.4

2.5

Confidence Bounds 95%

0
0

12

Time (Hours)

18

12

18

24

24

Time (Hours)

Figure 4. Validation results from a mainly residential sub-catchment (about 92% of water use comes from
residential users) and from a sewer sub-catchment with about 22% of commercial use.

A methodology to assess dry weather flow pattern uncertainty

12th International Conference on Urban Drainage, Porto Alegre/Brazil, 11-16 September 2011

CONCLUSIONS
Appropriate knowledge of temporal and spatial variations of key inflows entering into sewer
systems in dry weather periods is a requirement to a better understanding of the physical and
biochemical processes occurring within the network. To contribute to this goal, a
methodology to characterize sewer sub-catchment wastewater outflows, for use as inputs to
dynamic simulations of the sewerage system, has been proposed. A stochastic generator has
been developed with the aim of coupling it with the City Drain toolbox for integrated
modelling. If new field data become available they can be easily included within the
generation scheme. Input data required for implementing the methodology include (a) flow
and pollutant time series obtained from monitoring campaigns and (b) water use distribution
for each sub-catchment. It was found that the generator is able to estimate appropriate
uncertainty bounds. However, the presented methodology does not account for correlations
between determinants, or between the four water use-related patterns. Consequently, it is
proposed an extension to look at whether these correlations are significant. More extensive
validation tests are being performed looking at the stochastic properties. The aim is to test to
what degree the statistical properties of the residuals correspond to those of the simulations.
Besides these, current work is also focussing on comparing the effect of time resolution and
time series length on generator outputs using field data gathered by means of different
collection techniques and different drainage systems.

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