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Presented by: JOHN LEAHY

Chief Operating Officer Customers

Global Market
Forecast
2015-2034

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Global Market Forecast 2015: Highlights


GMF 2015 key numbers and 20-year change

World Fleet Forecast

2014

2034

% change
2014-2034

RPK (trillions)

6.2

15.2

145%

New aircraft deliveries

+1,227 aircraft
GMF 2015 vs. GMF 2014

Passenger Aircraft Fleet

17,354

New passenger aircraft


deliveries
Dedicated Freighters
New freighter aircraft
deliveries

35,749

106%

31,781
1,633

2,687

65%

804
Passenger aircraft ( 100 seats)

Total New Aircraft Deliveries

32,585

Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)


Source: Airbus GMF2015

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20-year demand for 32,600 new passenger and freight aircraft


20-year new deliveries of passenger and freighter aircraft

Market Value of

22,927 single-aisle aircraft

$4.9
8,108 twin-aisle aircraft

trillion

1,550 very large aircraft

32,585 new aircraft

Passenger aircraft ( 100 seats)


Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)
Source: Airbus GMF2015

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Single-aisle: 70% of units; Wide-bodies: 55% of value


20-year new deliveries of passenger and freighter aircraft
24,000

22,900

New Deliveries

20,000
16,000

32,600

12,000

GMF 2015 -2034

8,100

8,000
4,000

1,600

% units
% value

Single-aisle

Twin-aisle

Very Large Aircraft

70%

25%

5%

45%

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43%

12%

Passenger aircraft ( 100 seats) and


jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)
Source: Airbus GMF May 2015

Passenger traffic is outperforming GDP growth


World real GDP and passenger traffic

May 2015
Passenger Traffic

+5.8%

% (year-over-year)

8%

6%
4%
2%
0%

World real GDP


World passenger traffic (ASKs)

-2%
-4%

Q2JQ3
Q4JQ1
Q2JQ3
Q4JQ1
Q2J
JQ1MQ2
M JQ3SQ4
N JQ1
MQ2
M JQ3
S Q4
N JQ1
MQ2
M JQ3
S Q4
N JQ1
M Q2
M JQ3
S Q4
N JQ1
M Q2
M JQ3
S Q4
N JQ1
MM
SN
MM
SN
MM
2015
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: IHS Economics, OAG, Airbus GMF2015

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A two-speed economic world


Comparison of year-over-year GDP growth
Real GDP growth (%)

History

10%
8%

Forecast

Emerging
economies*

6%

4%
2%

Advanced
economies**

0%
-2%

-4%
1982

1986

1990

* 54 emerging economies
** 32 advanced economies
Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus GMF2015

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1994

1998

2002

2006

2010

2014

2018

Emerging
economies will
continue to
lead the pack

Emerging/
Developing

China
India
Middle East
Asia
Africa
CIS
Latin America
Eastern Europe

Advanced

Air transport growth is highest in expanding regions

Western Europe
North America
Japan

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6.3
billion
people
2014

1
billion
people
2014

Yearly RPK growth


2015 - 2034

+5.8 %

+3.8 %

Middle Class to grow, doubling in emerging countries


Middle Class*, millions of people
History

Forecast

5,000

3,671

4,000

Emerging countries

2,703

3,000
2,000

4,721

1,792

3,977
2,936

2,001
1,000
0

1,120

North America

247
425

259
444

263
471

264
480

2004

2014

2024

2034

6,400

7,200

8,000

8,600

World Population

28%

37%

46%

55%

% of world population

Source: Oxford Economics, Airbus GMF2015

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Europe

* Households with yearly income between $20,000 and $150,000 at PPP in constant 2014 prices

Private consumption to become important growth driver in emerging markets


Share of total world private consumption (%)

100%

Emerging
markets to
represent

90%

80%
70%
Advanced
Economies

60%

world private
consumption by
2034, up from

50%
40%

31% today

30%
20%
10%

43% of the

23%

31%

37%

43%

Emerging
Economies

0%
2004

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2014

2024

2034

Source: IHS Economics, Airbus


GMF2015

Europeans and North American are the most willing to fly


2014 trips per capita

Propensity to
travel

100.00

10.00

25%

1.00

of the population of
the emerging
countries took a
trip a year in

North America
1.63 trips per capita
Europe
1.21 trips per capita

0.10

PRC
0.30 trips per capita

2014

India
0.07 trips per capita

0.01

0.00
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2014 real GDP per capita


(2010 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity)

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Sources: Sabre, IHS Economics, Airbus


GMF2015

but by 2034, PRC will reach current European levels


2034 trips per capita

Propensity to
travel

100.00

10.00

74%

1.00

Europe
2.24 trips per capita

PRC
1.09 trips per capita

0.10

of the population of
the emerging
countries will take
a trip a year in

North America
2.16 trips per capita

India
0.30 trips per capita

2034

0.01

0.00
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2014 real GDP per capita


(2010 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity)

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Sources: Sabre, IHS Economics, Airbus


GMF2015

Air travel has proven to be resilient to external shocks


World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions)
Oil Crisis

Oil Crisis

Gulf Crisis

Asian
Crisis

9/11 SARS

Financial
Crisis

World traffic

85%

growth since 9/11


85%

4
3
2
1

0
1969

1974

1979

1984

1989

1994

1999

2004

2009

2014
Source: ICAO, Airbus

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Air traffic will double in the next 15 years


World annual RPK* (trillion)

ICAO total traffic

Airbus GMF 2015

16
14
12
10

x2

8
6

2014-2034

4.6%

2
0
1974

1979

1984

1989

1994

1999

2004

2009

2014

2019

2024

2029

2034

Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF2015

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Asia-Pacific to lead in world traffic by 2034


RPK traffic by airline domicile (billions)
% of 2014

20-year
growth

29%

5.7%

36%

Europe

25%

3.6%

21%

North America

25%

2.5%

17%

Middle East

9%

6.7%

13%

5%

5.2%

6%

4%

4.9%

4%

3%

5.3%

3%

0
Asia-Pacific

1,000
2014 traffic

Latin America

CIS
Africa

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2015-2034 traffic

20-year
world annual
traffic growth

4.6%

6,000 world RPK

% of 2034
world RPK

Source: Airbus GMF2015

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Domestic PRC will be the largest O&D traffic flow


Annual O&D traffic per flow (billion RPK)
Domestic PRC
Domestic USA
Intra Western Europe
Western Europe - USA
Domestic Asia Emerging
Western Europe - Middle East
Domestic India
Indian Subcontinent - Middle East
PRC - USA
Western Europe - South America
Asia Emerging - Western Europe
South America - USA
Domestic Brazil
Western Europe - PRC
Indian Subcontinent - USA
Central Europe - Western Europe
Australia & New Zealand - Western Europe
Middle East - USA
Sub Sahara Africa - Western Europe
Asia Advanced - Asia Emerging

x 3.8
x 1.4

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50%

x 1.7
x 1.7
x 3.7
x 2.4
x 5.8
x 3.4
x 4.1
x 2.2
x 2.4
x 2.8
x 2.9
x 3.0
x 3.8
x 2.5
x 2.4
x 4.1
x 2.5
x 3.1

200

400

600

Asia Pacific
leading growth

of the top twenty


traffic flows will
involve Asia Pacific

2014
2034

800

1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800

Source: Airbus GMF2015

More productive seats


Yearly offered seats per aircraft
250

Avg. number of yearly offered seats per aircraft (000)

Load factors
85%

World passenger load factors (%)

80%
200
75%

+46%

150

+17
percentage
points

70%

65%

100

60%
50
55%
0

50%
1980

1985

1990

1995

Source: OAG, Ascend, ICAO, Airbus GMF2015

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2000

2005

2010 2014

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010 2014

Less fuel burn, therefore less emissions


Fuel consumption
7

Kilograms per 100 RPKs (avg.)

-33%

5
4

3
2
1
0
2000

2001

2002

Source: ICAO, IATA, Airbus GMF2015

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2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Short to medium term forecasts have been revised down


Brent oil price (US$ per bbl. in nominal 2015)
History

160

IHS Energy

Forecast

Oil prices

Oil price down but


trend uncertain

140
120

Short-term good for


airline profitability

100

80

Medium-term boost
for global GDP

60
40
20
0
1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035
Source: IHS Energy, Oxford Economics

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70% of traffic growth until 2034 will be coming from existing network

1.5

Monthly Trillion RPK

Growth from
new routes

1.2
0.9

Growth from
existing network

0.6
0.3
0.0
2014
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2034

Source: Airbus GMF2015

47 Aviation Mega-Cities in 2014


2014 Aviation Mega-Cities

47
Aviation
Mega-cities

0.9M

90%+

Daily Passengers:
long-haul traffic to/
from/via MegaCities

of long-haul traffic
on routes
to/from/via
47 cities

22%
of World
GDP
in 2014

Source: McKinsey, UNPD, Airbus GMF2015

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>50 000 daily long-haul passengers


>20 000 daily long-haul passengers
>10 000 daily long-haul passengers

and 91 Mega-Cities by 2034


2034 Aviation Mega-Cities

91
Aviation
Mega-cities

2.3M

95%+

Daily Passengers:
Long-Haul traffic
to/ from/via MegaCities

of long-haul traffic
on routes
to/from/via
91 cities

35%
of World
GDP
in 2034

Source: McKinsey, UNPD, Airbus GMF2015

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>50 000 daily long-haul passengers


>20 000 daily long-haul passengers
>10 000 daily long-haul passengers

These airports are already largely congested


2014 Aviation Mega-Cities

39 out of the
47 Aviation
Mega Cities are
scheduleconstrained
today
*Aviation Mega-Cities International
Airports

IATA WSG level 1: airport


infrastructure is adequate

IATA WSG level 2: airports with


potential for congestion

IATA WSG level 3: airports


Source: IATA WSG database, Airbus GMF

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where conditions make it


impossible to meet demand

The bigger the city, the wealthier the population


GDP per capita ratio between Aviation Mega-Cities and regional average

47
North America

+25%

Europe

+60%

Aviation
Mega-cities

CIS

+300%
Asia Pacific
Middle East

Latin America

Africa

+90%

+320%

+160%

+290%

Source: Oxford Economics, UNPD, IHS


Global Insight, Airbus GMF2015

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Routes between Aviation Mega-cities have more premium passengers


Percentage of premium passengers on routes types

Percentage of
premium
between AMC
2014

16%
14%
12%

14%

10%
8%
14%
6%
10%
8%

4%

compared to 11%
average
international longhaul

2%

0%
Aviation Mega-City to Aviation
Mega-City
Cities with more than 10,000 daily passengers, Long-haul, flight
distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic

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Aviation Mega-City <>


Secondary City

Secondary City to Secondary


City
Source: Sabre (September 2014 data),
Airbus GMF2015

Demand for some 32,600 new passenger and freighter aircraft


Fleet in service evolution: 2015-2034
38,500

40,000
35,000
30,000

19,500

Growth

25,000
20,000

32,600
New
aircraft

19,000

15,000
13,100
10,000

Replacement

5,000
5,900

Stay in service

0
Beginning 2015

2034

Source: Airbus
Note: Passenger aircraft 100 seats,
Freighter aircraft 10 tonnes

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Summary
Strong and resilient passenger traffic growth
Oil price down but trend uncertain
o Short-term good for airline profitability

o Medium-term boost for global GDP


Demand for 32,600 new aircraft by 2034 ~31,800 passenger aircraft and 800 freighters
13,100 passenger aircraft needed for replacement, largely single-aisle

Single-aisle represent 70% of demand in units, but wide-bodies represent 55% of value
VLA demand largely concentrated on Aviation Mega-cities
but network efficiencies will drive proliferation of new VLA destinations

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