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general statistic

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Inferential Statistics

Chapter 6: Confidence Intervals

Chapter 7: Hypothesis Testing

6-1

Chapter 6

Confidence Intervals

6.1: Estimating ( known)

6.2: Estimating ( unknown)

6.3: Estimating p

6-2

Section 6.1: Estimating a Population Mean ( known)

Chapters 6 and 7 start inferential statistics: drawing conclusions about population using sample data.

There are two major types of inferential statistics. Use sample data to:

1. Estimate the value of a population parameter (Confidence Intervals)

2. Test some claim about a population parameter (Hypothesis Testing).

Parameter

Idea:

Statistic

x

N

Quantitative Data

(Means)

Population Mean: =

Qualitative Data

(Proportions)

Population Proportion: p =

Sample Mean: x =

x

N

x

n

Sample Proportion: p =

x

n

2. Estimate the proportion of adults who currently approve of the president (p).

Point Estimates

A point estimate for a parameter is a single value estimate.

1. For , the best point estimate is x :

p p

a. A sample of 100 adult men has a mean weight of x = 170 lbs.

Find the point estimate for , the mean weight of all adult males.

Find the point estimate for p, the proportion of all adults who approve of the president.

6-3

1. An interval estimate is a range of values that is likely to contain the parameter.

2. Format:

= x E

or

p= p E

where c is the probability the interval actually contains the parameter.

Interpreting confidence levels:

Confidence Level, c

c

1-c

90%

0.90

0.10

95%

0.95

0.05

99%

0.99

0.01

a. A sample of 100 adult men has a mean weight of x = 170 lbs. A 95% confidence interval for

the mean has a margin of error of 3 lbs.

b. A sample of 500 adults gave a 48% approval rating for the president. (90% CI, MOE 3%).

.

Confidence Intervals for Population Mean ( known)

Estimating a population mean, = x E :

1. Get a random sample of size n and compute x .

2. If population is normal or n 30 and is known:

x N ,

z distribution

n

Critical Values, zc

1. Confidence levels, c, are associated with special z-scores, called critical values, zc

2. To find zc, let the confidence level c represent the middle area of the standard normal curve.

Then find the z-scores than mark the boundaries.

6-4

Example 3.

Find the critical values associated with the following confidence levels.

a. 95%

b. 90%

c. 99%

Given: is known, the sample is random, and either the population is normal or n 30 :

1. Find the sample statistics n and x

2. Compute the ( c 100% ) confidence interval for a population mean, using:

=

x E , where E =

zc

n

Interval Notation:

= x E

or

x E < < xE

or

( x E, x + E )

Rounding: Round confidence intervals the same as the statistics: one more decimal than data.

6-5

Example 4: A study by researchers at the University of Maryland found the body temperatures of 106

healthy adults had a mean temperature of 98.20F. Assume the population standard deviation is

known to be 0.62F.

a.

Construct a 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence interval for the mean body temperature of all

healthy adults.

6-6

Example 5:

The Center for Education Reform conducted a study to find the mean salary of public school

teachers. A random sample of 300 teachers had a mean salary of $41,820. From past studies, the

population standard deviation is known to be $2700.

a. Find the 95% confidence interval for the mean salary of all public elementary teachers.

b. If 2000 teachers had been sampled with the same results, what happens to the margin of

error?

6-7

To determine what sample size is needed to estimate , first choose:

1. Level of confidence

2. desired Margin of Error

z

Then, minimum sample size required to estimate a population mean is n = c ,

E

where n is always rounded up* to the nearest whole number.

2

1. Get a preliminary sample with n 30 and then use s to approximate , or,

range

2. If you can estimate the range, then approximate using

4

Example 6.

a. A realtor agency wants to estimate the mean number of days a home is on the market before it

sells. How many homes must be sampled if they want to be 95% confident the sample mean is

within 10 days of the true population mean? Assume a preliminary study suggests = 30 days.

b. Repeat the above example with different margin of errors (5 days, 3 days, 2 days, 1 day, etc.)

What level of confidence and margin of error do you think leads to an acceptable sample size?

6-8

Example 7.

Suppose you want estimate the mean weight of an adult male, to be in error by no

more than 3 pounds, and with 95% confidence.

a. Use your knowledge of mens weights to estimate the range and then estimate .

b. How many men would you have to weigh if you want to estimate the mean weight within 3

pounds, and with 95% confidence?

c. The CDC conducts annual health surveys to guide research and policies to for preventing

premature mortality (BRFSS System). If they wanted to estimate the mean weight of an

adult male within 3 pounds with 99% confidence, what sample size would they need?

6-9

Section 6.2: Estimating a Population Mean ( unknown)

Choosing Probability Distributions for Confidence Intervals

known:

unknown:

If is known and either the population is normal or n 30, then x N ,

:

n

If is unknown and either the population is normal or n 30,

the x ' s will have a t-distribution and use critical t-scores, tc, to find E.

The t-distribution is a family of curves, each determined by a parameter called the degrees of freedom.

The degrees of freedom are equal to 1 less than the sample size: d.f. = n -1:

Sample Size, n

n = 25

n = 15

n=9

Degrees of Freedom, n 1

d.f = 24

d.f. = 14

d.f = 8

1. The t-distribution is bell-shaped and symmetric about its mean.

2. The mean = 0, but varies more than the normal distribution.

3. As the degrees of freedom increase, the t-distribution approaches the normal distribution.

For n > 30, the t-distribution the z-distribution.

Given: is unknown, the sample is random, and either the population is normal or n 30 :

1. Find the sample statistics n, x and s

2. Compute the ( c 100% ) confidence interval for a population mean, using

s

n

x E , where E =

tc

=

, and t has n 1 degrees of freedom

6-10

Example 1: Use the t-distribution table to find the critical values. Make a sketch for each.

a. 90% confidence interval, n = 10

d. Compare tc to zc .

6-11

Example 2: A city health department wishes to determine whether the mean bacteria count per unit

volume of water at a lake beach is within the safety level of 200. A researcher collected 32 water

samples and found the mean bacteria count to be 204.2 bacteria/100 ml and the standard deviation

of 14.6 bacterial/100 ml.

a. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the mean bacteria count per unit volume in the

entire lake.

b. Is it possible the bacteria is within the prescribed limits?

Example 3: How much do mountain lions weigh? The 77th Annual Report of the New Mexico

Department of Game and Fish gave the following information. Adult mountain lions (18 months and

older) captured and released for the first time in the San Andres Mountains gave the following weights

(in pounds). Assume the weights of mountain lions are approximately normally distributed.

68

104

128

122

60

64

90

80

112

82

a. Find a 90% confidence interval for the mean weight of all mountain lions in the specified region.

6-12

When finding confidence intervals, it is very important to use the correct distribution.

Besides using whether is known or unknown, the distribution of the population and n is also needed:

**Note:

If the population is not normally distributed and n < 30, neither the z or t distributions can be used!!

Example 4: State which distribution (z or t) would be used to create a 95% confidence interval for

the population mean, , in the following examples. If neither distribution could be used, explain why.

a. The gestation period of humans is normally distributed with = 16 days. A sample of size

n = 12 has a mean of 267 days.

b. For estimating the mean amount of rainfall during the month of April in Chicago, a simple

random sample of 36 years has a mean of 3.63 inches and a standard deviation of 1.63 inches.

c. The starting salaries of law school graduates are skewed right with a population standard

deviation of $24,000. A random sample of 15 law school graduates has a mean starting salary

of $63,000.

6-13

Section 6.3 Estimating a Population Proportion, p

Population proportion: p =

Sample proportion: p =

X

; the proportion (or %) of the population that has the attribute.

N

x

; the proportion (or %) of a sample that has the attribute.

n

Other notation: q = 1 p ; the proportion (%) of the population that does not have the attribute.

q = 1 p ; the proportion (%) of the sample that does not have the attribute.

1. Point estimate: p p

2. Confidence Interval estimate: p= p E

3. Notation:

p= p E or p E < p < p + E

or ( p E , p + E )

pq

p=

p E ; where E =

zc

n

2. Round proportions and confidence intervals to 3 significant digits.

6-14

Example 1:

In a study conducted by the Centers for Disease Control in 2007, 490 out of 1,700 randomly

selected Americans with a high school diploma were found to be obese.

a. Find a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of high school graduates who are obese.

b. When the same study was performed on Americans with 4 or more years of college education,

if was reported that 20.2% of college graduates are obese (based on 95% confidence, and a

margin of error of 2% ). Based on these results, does the obesity rate for high school

graduates appear to be higher than that of college graduates?

Example 2:

An internet company claims that 95% of the products ordered will be mailed within 48 hours of an

order being placed. A random sample of 200 orders showed 174 of the orders were mailed on time.

a. Using a 99% level of confidence, construct a confidence interval for the percentage of all

orders that were shipped within 48 hours.

b. Based on your result, does it appear the companys claim is correct? Explain.

6-15

To determine what sample size is needed to estimate p, first choose:

1. Level of confidence

2. desired Margin of Error

Then, minimum sample size required to estimate a population proportion is:

1. When an estimate of p is known:

or

z 2 pq

n= c 2

E

zc 2 ( 0.25 )

n=

E2

Example 3: For the internet company in the previous example,

a. What sample size should have been used if they wanted a 3% MOE?

b. What sample size would be needed if they wanted to be 95% confident with a 3% MOE?

Example 4: The National Institute of Drug Abuse wants to estimate the percentage of U.S. teenagers

aged 12-18 who have used any illicit drug other than marijuana in the past year. How many

teenagers must be surveyed if they want to be 95% confident that the sample has a margin of error

of no more than 2% ?

a. Assume that there is no available information that could be used as an estimate of p .

b. Assume they use a 2014 estimate that 11% of teenagers had used an illicit drug in the past

year.

6-16

Chapter 7

Hypothesis Testing

7.1: Basic of Hypothesis Testing

7.2: Tests for ( known)

7.3: Tests for ( unknown)

7.4: Tests for p

7-1

Section 7.1/7.2: Fundamentals of Hypothesis Testing

Recall: Inferential Statistics draw conclusions about a population based on sample data:

Confidence Intervals: Estimate the value of a population parameter (using sample statistics).

Hypothesis Tests: Tests a claim (hypothesis) about a population parameter (using sample statistics).

Hypothesis test: Tests a claim (hypothesis) about a population parameter, using sample statistics.

The claim can be a historical value, a business claim, a product specification, etc.

Components of a hypothesis test:

A.

B.

C.

D.

The Test Statistic and making decisions

Types of Errors in hypothesis testing

Writing Conclusions about the claim

A. The Hypotheses

Null hypothesis, H0 :

- assumed true until proven otherwise

- must contain equality sign: , , or =

Alternative Hypothesis, Ha :

- must contain: >, <, or

H o : = 0

H a : 0

or

H o : 0

H a : < 0

or

H o : 0

H a : > 0

Example 1:

Identify which hypothesis is the original claim.

Make sure you use the correct symbol for the parameter ( , p,or )

a. Claim: A science group claims normal body temperatures is less than 98.6F.

b. A safety agency claims that at least 70% of cell phone users text while driving.

c. A quality control engineer says the diameters of bike tires have a standard deviation of 0.05

inches.

7-2

B. Making Decisions

1. State hypotheses. **Assume H 0 is true.

2. Collect sample data (test statistic).

3. Make a decision about H 0 :

a. Reject H0 ( accept H a ) ,or,

b. Fail to Reject H0 ( cant accept Ha).

Example 2. Consider the scenario of a trial, where the defendant is presumed innocent until proven

otherwise. Set up a hypothesis test and explain the two decisions that can be made.

C. Types of Errors

1. Type I error: Reject H 0 H 0 is actually true

2. Type II error: FTR H 0 H 0 is actually false

The symbol is used to represent the probability of a Type I error: P ( Type I error ) =

The symbol is used to represent the probability of a Type II error: P ( Type II error ) =

Note: is set in advance of starting the test, and is also known as the level of significance of the test.

Example 3: Identify the Type I and Type II errors associated with the following claims or

hypotheses, and the possible consequences of those errors.

a. From the trial in the previous example, the claim of innocent until proven guilty.

b. A bottling company claims the mean amount of coke in a coke can is 12 oz. This is

periodically checked by quality control personnel.

7-3

After making a decision about the null, a final conclusion is written about the original claim. How the

conclusion is worded depends on the decision, and whether the claim was in Ho or Ha.

Ho contains claim:

1. Reject Ho: There is enough evidence to reject claim that Ho

2. FTR Ho: There is not enough evidence to reject the claim that Ho

Ha contains claim:

1. Reject Ho: There is enough evidence to support the claim that Ha

2. FTR Ho: There is not enough evidence to support the claim that Ha

Example 4: Write the conclusion for the hypothesis test based on the given decision.

a. Researchers at the University of Maryland claims that the mean body temperature of healthy

adults is less than 98.6F. The decision was Reject H 0 .

b. A safety agency claims that at least 70% of cell phone users text while driving.

The decision was FTR H 0 .

7-4

1. Write claim. State H o , H a . Assume H 0 is true. ( = 0 ). Determine the tails of the test.

2. Get test statistic: value from sample data; used to make a decision about H 0 .

For tests about , use x . Convert x to a standard score ( z or t )

We start with tests for a population mean, .

b. P-value method

Tails of the test: Assuming the null hypothesis H 0 is true, where would your sample mean

x have to fall to convince you to reject

H 0 (and accept H a )?

Critical Region: Region under the curve where values of test statistic that would be unlikely,

assuming H 0 is true.

Area of critical region = ( is the significance level of the test)

Critical Values: Values (zc or tc) that bound the critical region

Decision:

If test statistic x falls in the non-critical region, FTR Ho.

Critical Region

H a : < 0

H a : > 0

H a : 0

7-5

Instead of determining whether your sample mean is unusual by whether or not it falls in a

critical region, be more precise and find the p-value:

P-value: Probability of getting a test statistic as extreme or more than the one from the sample data,

assuming Ho is true.

1.

2.

2.

3.

4.

Select level of significance, . (How unusual would your sample have to be to reject Ho?)

Gather a sample. Compute x and covert to a standard test statistic, z *.

Determine the tails of the test.

Compute the P-value.

Make a decision: a. If P-value (unusual), Reject Ho.

b. If P-value > (not unusual), FTR Ho.

H 0 : 0 (Assume true)

H a : < 0

H 0 : 0

H a : > 0

H 0 : = 0

H a : 0

7-6

Example 5:

Make a decision about the Ho, under the given conditions with the indicated method.

Sketch, shade the critical region (area = ),

find the critical values, make a decision

left-tailed test, = 0.05, z = 1.73

P-value Method

Sketch, shade the P-value area,

find the P-value, make a decision

left-tailed test, = 0.05, z = 1.73

right-tailed test,

=

0.01,

=

z 2.07

right-tailed test,

=

0.01,

=

z 2.07

two-tailed test,

z 1.81

=

0.05,

=

two-tailed test,

=

0.05,

=

z 1.81

7-7

Hypothesis Test about Population Mean ( known)

Method: Given is known, the sample is random, and either the population is normal or n 30,

use the z-test for the population mean :

1. Write the claim in terms of .

Use the claim to write H o , H a . Assume H 0 is true. (i.e., = 0 )

Determine whether it is a left tailed test, right-tailed test, or 2-tailed test.

Note the level of significance, .

2. Get sample test statistic, x .

x

n

Indicate on the sketch whether it is a left tailed test, right-tailed test, or 2-tailed test.

Make a decision about H 0 based on the test statistic and given significance level , using:

a. Critical Region method: Shade the critical region, find the critical values, zc

If z is in the critical region, reject H 0

If z is not in the critical region, fail to reject H 0

b. P-value method: Find the probability of the test statistic being as extreme or more as the

sample:

If P < , reject H 0

If P , fail to reject H 0

4. Interpret your decision by writing a conclusion in terms of the original claim.

7-8

For each of the following: State the claim, write the hypotheses, find the test statistic, sketch the sampling

distribution, use both the critical region method and the p-value method to make a decision about Ho, and

interpret your decision in terms of the original claim.

Example 1:

Fire insurance rates for a certain suburb are based on past data that states mean distance from a home

in the community to the nearest fire department is 4.7 miles. Residents in the community claim the

mean distance is less, and want their rates lowered. From a random sample of 64 homes in the

suburb, the mean distance was 4.3 miles. Assume the population standard deviation was 2.4 miles.

Use the data to test the claim that the mean distance to the nearest fire station is less than 4.7 miles.

Use a 1% level of significance.

7-9

Example 2:

Golf course designers are concerned that old courses are becoming obsolete because new equipment

enables golfers to hit the ball so far: In effect, golf courses are shrinking. One designer claims that

new courses need to be built with the expectation that players will be able to hit the ball more than 250

yards (with their drivers), on average. Suppose a sample of 135 golfers is tested, and their mean

driving distance is 256.3 yards. Assume the population standard deviation is 43.4 yards. At = 0.05 ,

can you support the designers claim?

7-10

Example 3:

Many colleges across a certain state have long used the CPT placement test for placing students into

the appropriate math courses. Historically, the mean score on the CPT has been 82. The school is

considering switching to a new placement test called COMPASS. The COMPASS test is easier to

administer and less expensive, but the college is unwilling to switch if the COMPASS test results in a

different mean than the CPT. An independent testing agency tested 36 students, which gave a mean

of 79. Past studies show the population is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 8. Use

this information to test the COMPASS claim that their test has the same mean as the CPT. Use

= 0.05.

7-11

Section 7.3: Hypothesis Test for Population Mean ( unknown)

Method: Given is unknown, the sample is random, and either the population is normal or n 30,

use the t-test for the population mean :

Use the claim to write H o , H a . Assume H 0 is true. (i.e., = 0 )

Determine whether it is a left tailed test, right-tailed test, or 2-tailed test.

Note the level of significance, .

2. Get the sample test statistic, x , and s.

For unknown and either x N or n 30, use the t-distribution with n 1 degrees of freedom.

x

Convert x to a standard test statistic: t =

s n

Indicate on the sketch whether it is a left tailed test, right-tailed test, or 2-tailed test.

Make a decision about H 0 based on the test statistic and given significance level , using:

a. Critical Region method: Shade the critical region, find the critical values, zc

If z is in the critical region, reject H 0

If z is not in the critical region, fail to reject H 0

b. P-value method: Find the probability of the test statistic being as extreme or more as the

sample:

If P < , reject H 0

If P , fail to reject H 0

7-12

Example 1: Use the t-distribution to make a decision about the Ho under the given conditions.

Critical Region Method

Sketch, shade the critical region (area = ),

find the critical values, make a decision

Sketch, shade the P-value area,

find the P-value, make a decision

=

0.01,

=

=

n 25,

t 2.516

=

=

=

0.01,

right tailed test,

n 25,

t 2.516

c. 2 tailed test,

=

0.05,

=

n 35,

=

t 2.103

=

0.05,

=

=

2 tailed test,

n 35,

t 2.103

7-13

For each of the following: State the claim, write the hypotheses, find the test statistic, sketch the sampling

distribution, use either the critical region method or the p-value method to make a decision about Ho, and

write your conclusion in terms of the original claim.

Example 2:

A group of researchers conducted a study of the birth weights of babies born to women who smoked

regularly while they were pregnant. For a sample of 32 such women, the mean birth weight of the

babies was 3,160 grams and the standard deviation of 440 grams. Test the hypothesis that the mean

birth weight of babies born to mothers who smoke is less than 3370 g (the mean birth weight for all

babies). Use = 0.01.

7-14

Example 3.

a. A car company claims that the mean gas mileage for its luxury sedan is more than 28 mpg in

the city. To test the claim, the company randomly selects 10 sedans, giving the mpg shown below.

Use a level of significance of = 0.01. Assume the mpg for all such sedans has an approximately

normal distribution.

29.1

30.6

27.8

32.4

28.0

27.9

29.2

30.1

28.0

28.4

b. Notice the claim was more than 28 mpg. Why not say at least 28 mpg?

7-15

Section 7.4: Testing a claim about a Population Proportion

Population proportion: p =

X

; the proportion of the population that has the attribute.

N

q = 1 p ; the proportion of the population that does not have the attribute.

Sample proportion: p =

x

; the proportion of a sample that has the attribute.

n

q = 1 p ; the proportion of the sample that does not have the attribute. .

H o : p = p0

H a : p p0

H o : p p0

H o : p p0

or

( Two tailed )

H a : p < p0

or

( Left tailed )

H a : p > p0

( Right tailed )

1. Write the claim in terms of p.

Use the claim to write H o , H a . Assume H 0 is true. (i.e. p = p0 )

Determine whether you are doing a left tailed, right tailed, or 2-tailed test.

pq

For large samples, np 5 and nq 5 : p N p,

.

n

p p

**

Convert p to a standard test statistic, z: z =

pq

n

3. Sketch the sampling distribution for p .

Indicate on the sketch whether youre doing a left-tailed test, a right-tailed test, or a 2-tailed test.

Based on the test statistics, make a decision about H 0 using:

a. Critical Region Method (shade critical region, find critical values, zc).

b. P-value method: shade and find the P-value area.

Note**: When the calculation of p results in a decimal with many places, store the number on your

calculator and use all the decimals when evaluating the z test statistic.

Large errors in z and the P-value can result from rounding p too much.

7-16

For each of the following: State the claim, write the hypotheses, find the test statistic, sketch the sampling

distribution, use the critical region or P-value method to make a decision about Ho, and interpret your

decision in terms of the original claim.

Example 1:

In a survey conducted by the Gallop Organization in 2011, 456 of 1012 adults aged 18 years or older

said they had a gun in the house. In 2010, 41% of households had a gun. Is there sufficient evidence

to support the claim that the proportion of households that have a gun has changed from 2010 to

2011? Use a 5% level of significance.

7-17

Example 2:

Pepcid is a drug that can be used to heal duodenal ulcers. Suppose the manufacturer of Pepcid claims

that more than 80% of patients are healed after taking 40 mg of Pepcid every night for 8 weeks. In

clinical trials, 148 of 178 patients suffering from duodenal ulcers were healed after 8 weeks. Test the

manufacturers claim at = 0.01 level of significance.

7-18

Below is a list of topics for the exam. Review class notes, homework, and quizzes.

Complete the review problems in MML.

Additional review can be found in the electronic textbook (see next page).

Chapter 6: Confidence Intervals

1. Construct and interpret confidence intervals

2. Estimating :

= x E

a. x N or n 30 and known:

b. x N or n 30 and unknown:

3. Estimating p :

p=

p E ;

n

s

use t distribution: E = tc

n

use z distribution: E = zc

pq

E=

zc

n

(provided np and nq 5 )

4. Sample sizes

a. for :

z

n= c

E

b. for p:

n=

zc 2 ( 0.25 )

zc 2 pq

Proportion

,

unknown

p

q

n

=

Proportion ( p , q known )

(

)

2

E

E2

1. Understand: claim, null and alternative hypothesis, decisions, Type I and Type II errors,

significance level

2. Conduct hypothesis tests for population mean or a population proportion p by:

State the claim, write the hypotheses, find the standard test statistic, sketch the sampling

distribution, use either the critical region method or p-value method to make a decision about Ho,

and interpret your decision in terms of the original claim.

a. Critical region method: Shade the critical region (area = ), find the critical values

b. P-value method: Find probability of getting a test statistic as extreme or more as the

sample; compare to

3. Test statistics and distributions:

a. For tests about :

x N or n 30, known:

x N or n 30, unknown:

( np > 5, nq > 5 ):

use z distribution: z =

n

x

use t distribution: t =

s n

use z distribution, z = p p

pq

n

7-19

Review Problems

*1. MyMathLab: Test 3 Review (Chapters 6 and 7)

2. Optional Review: Chapter Quizzes with Videos

Chapter Quizzes: MML, Electronic Textbook, Chapter #, Chapter Quiz and Videos

Student Solutions Manual: MML, Student Solutions Manual, Chapter #

Chapter 6 Quiz: All 1-5;

Chapter 7 Quiz: All 1-5

7-20

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