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You are on page 1of 5

SAMPLES I

Dr. Campbell

1. The demand for months 1-4 is as follows: 90, 85, 87, 83.

a) Forecast demand for month 5 using: a 3-period moving average, a 2period weighted moving average with weights of 0.7 and 0.3, and

exponential smoothing with =0.3 (use 85 as the old forecast for period 4).

b) Suppose the actual demand for month 5 is 82. Forecast demand for

month 6 using: a 3-period simple moving average, a 2-period weighted

moving average with weights of 0.7 and 0.3, and exponential smoothing

with =0.3.

c) If the demand for month 6 was 80, determine the mean absolute

deviation (MAD), mean squared error (MSE) and mean absolute percentage

error (MAPE) for the three period moving average for months 5 and 6.

2. a) Calculate the best fitting line using linear regression to forecast

demand using the data for four periods of demand and number of

salespeople below.

number of salespeople

14

16

12

15

demand

40

50

20

42

b) If there are 17 salespeople in the next period, what is the forecast for

demand?

c) Graph the four data points and the linear regression line.

3. The following statement defines a set of decision variables for a linear

programming problem:

Xij = number of pounds of ingredient i used to make final product j

i=1,2,3; j=1,2,3,4

a) Write a constraint that says that at least 30% of product 2 must be

ingredient 3.

b) Write a constraint that says that the amount of product 3 produced can

not exceed the amount of ingredient 1 used in all products.

c) Write a constraint that says that the total amount of ingredient 2 used

must be at least 20% larger than the total amount of ingredient 3 used.

4. A ship has three cargo holds to be loaded with 250 tons of freight. The

front hold has a capacity of 100 tons, the middle hold has a capacity of 120

tons and the rear hold has a capacity of 80 tons. For balance, the middle

hold must carry at least one-third of the total weight. Also for balance, the

1

load in the front hold must be within 20 tons of the load in the rear hold. The

costs to load the holds are $10 per ton for the front hold, $20 per ton for the

middle hold and $15 per ton for the rear hold. Formulate a linear program to

minimize the cost to load the ship.

with 4 variables and 2 constraints. The objective is to maximize profit.

Adj

ust

Cell

Name

Final

Reduced

Objective

Allowable

Allowable

Value

Cost

Coefficient

Increase

Decrease

$B$7

Sol's values X1

-14.2

14.2

1E+30

$C$7

Sol's values X2

42

4.4375

$D$7

Sol's values X3

18

$E$7

Sol's values X4

-18.4

18.4

1E+30

Co

nst

Cell

Name

Final

Shadow

Constraint

Allowable

Allowable

Value

Price

R.H. Side

Increase

Decrease

$F$4

con 1 LHS

60

0.8

60

210

15

$F$5

con 2 LHS

90

3.6

90

30

70

Profit=______

X1=___

X2=___

X3=___

X4=___

be the optimal solution?

a) same as aboveb) different than above c) can not tell

5.3) If the right hand side (RHS) of constraint 2 is changed to 50, how does

the profit change?

6. A product design team has two options for a new product: high

technology and low technology. The low technology option will cost

$500,000, and the probability of the product becoming obsolete in the near

future is 0.4. (The probability of the product not becoming obsolete is 0.6.)

The high technology option will cost $1,500,000, and the probability of the

product becoming obsolete in the near future is 0.3. (The probability of the

product not becoming obsolete is 0.7.) If the low tech option is selected and

the product becomes obsolete, then it may be either scrapped at a cost of

$150,000 or sold in a secondary market for a total revenue of $400,000. A

low tech product that does not become obsolete will produce a total revenue

of $800,000. A high tech product that becomes obsolete will provide a total

revenue of $600,000. A high tech product that does not become obsolete

will provide a total revenue of $2,200,000. Use a decision tree to determine

3

the course of action and the resulting expected value. Show the decision

tree and all your work.

7. For sales data as in the figure below, which forecasting techniques will

most likely produce the smallest errors?

sales

a) 3 period moving average

b) 6 period moving average

c) 9 period moving average

time

8. Which is the pessimistic decision making method.

a) Maximax

b) Maximin

c) Minimax

value

9. Robustness in product design refers to:

a) simplicity

b) use of computers to interactively design products

c) ability of product to not be affected by variation

d) quality function deployment

10. To evaluate the quality of a forecast, we can use

a) concurrent design

b) economies of scale

c) linear regression

d) a tracking signal

d)

Expected

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