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Weighting for January Survey

The weights for the 722 respondents of the January Poll survey are calculated the
following steps. First, we get basic weights using post-stratification method with
gender and age group based on the November survey weights. After then, we
took a raking adjustment on the weights with congressional district, gender, age
within each party.

1. Raking adjustment
(1) Fix the party: DEM, REP, NP
(2) Calculate the basic weights with gender and age information

w h=

mh
nh

mh is

where h is the post stratum defined by gender and age indicator,
the sum of the November survey weights at the stratum h, and

nh

is

the number of respondents in the January survey at the stratum h.
(3) Allocate the basic weights for respondents in each party.
(4) Take raking adjustment with congressional district information within each
party. Given the party,
(a) In the j-th distict, we have

∑ w i , Nov Dij Pil= ∑ w¿i 0 wi 1 Pil Dij

i ∈ A1

i∈ A2

(b) In each gender, we have

∑ w i , Nov Gij Pil= ∑ w¿i 0 wi 1 P il Gij

i ∈ A1

i ∈ A2

(c) In each age group, we have

∑ w i , Nov Sij Pil= ∑ w¿i 0 w i1 S ij Pil

i ∈ A1

i∈ A2

0 4.2 7.1 3. All procedures are conducted with the records in the registration list.2 2.5 .8 DON’T KNOW 11.7 35.0 49.8 45.2 *No Weight1/Weight1: 364 (325 DEM. Gij : an indicator function that takes one if the gender of the i-th interviewee is j and 0 otherwise.Jan satisfying w i .9 Martin O’Malley 1.2 Bernie Sanders 29. Results 1) Democratic candidate (Q4) Democratic caucus in (List=1) Candidate No weight1 No weight2 Weight1 Hillary Clinton 53.0 6. 2.3 1. S ij : an indicator function that takes one if the age group of the i-th interviewee is j and 0 otherwise.3 54.9 1. w ¿i0 : basic weights from (2) w i1 : adjusted weights from the raking (5) Get the final weights w i .4 0.Jan=w¿i 0 wi 1 Note that registered party can be different between the records in the registration list and the survey responses. 12 REP. Dij : an indicator function that takes one if i-th interviewee lives in the jth distict and 0 otherwise.A 1 : November survey A 2 : January follow-up survey Pil : an indicator function that takes one if i-th interviewee is the l-th party and 0 otherwise.1 3.9 Other 4. 27 NP) Weight2 47.4 37.

161 REP.7 Ben Carson 9.3 Don’t Know 13. 15 REP.3 0.3 3.4 4.4 22.4 6.5 1.2 John Kasich 1.3 Marco Rubio 16. Use respondents who are likely (definitely/probably) to attend the caucus.1 1.9 12.5 4.3 4.6 0.9 *No Weight2/Weight2: 185 (12 DEM.9 18.8 13.0 0.0 0. Use respondents who are likely to attend the caucus.0 Rick Santorum 0.6 4.0 3.8 11.2 1. 268 REP.1 0.6 1. 29 NP) Weight2 3.2 *No Weight1/Weight1: 320 (23 DEM.4 Chris Christie 1.3 3.4 0.2 25.3 Carly Fiorina 1.0 Mike Huckabee 3. 12 NP).4 Rand Paul 2. 2) Republican candidate (Q6) Republican caucus in (List=2): Candidate No weight1 No weight2 Weight1 Jeb Bush 5.8 1.5 Donald Trump 17.9 8.3 4.4 10.8 4.9 18. .4 11.*No Weight2/Weight2: 226 (206 DEM.6 11.4 18. 5 NP).9 3.8 18.9 Jim Gilmore 0.0 Ted Cruz 22.1 0.7 10.7 0.2 1.9 0.8 Ohter 3.8 25.

6% Category 1 2 3 4 Yes No 18-29 30-49 50-99 Male Female Population 21.1% 60.1% 51.8% 29.3% 27.5% 59.1% November 21.8% 20.4% 42.7% 57.8% 21.0% 42.9% 22.9% 26.5% 48.7% 51.9% 14.5% 57.4% 25.0% 26.8% 29.4% 31.5% .4% 27.9% 48.1% 37.3% 29.0% 13.0% 75.5% 24.9% 30.4% 27.5% 22.8% 59.6% 60.4% 25.4% 69.4% 48.2% 62.4% 61.0% 52.8% 27.6% 27.3% November 26.0% 42.2% 26.1% 51.1% 13.7% 38.3% 26.8% 20.9% 22.3% 12.4% 27.7% 60.4% 26.8% 21.6% 24.0% 78.8% 27.4% 68.0% 59.2% 59.8% 51.2% 59.5% January 26.4% 70.2% 13.3% 26.6% 13.0% 42.3% 26.8% 27.5% 48.5% Sample 26.2% 26.6% Sample 21.Appendix Some tables are used to check whether the final weights can represent the population characteristic in terms of weighting variables.0% 48.4% 57.5% 13.6% 2) REP Variables Congressional district Primary attendance Age Gender January 21.4% 25.9% 22. 1) DEM Variables Congressional district Primary attendance Age Gender Category 1 2 3 4 Yes No 18-29 30-49 50-99 Male Female Population 26.4% 57.8% 20.5% 29.4% 13.8% 29.

1% November 26.3) NP Variables Congressional district Primary group Age Gender Category 1 2 3 4 Yes No 18-29 30-49 50-99 Male Female Population 26.5% 38.9% 52.3% 23.9% 25.8% 47.6% 23.0% 24.9% 25.4% 47.1% .9% 25.5% 4.3% 37.2% 38.8% Sample 27.9% 52.6% 23.1% January 26.6% 47.5% 68.1% 95.0% 24.7% 31.2% 24.2% 52.9% 52.9% 36.2% 36.0% 24.6% 26.0% 38.6% 23.2% 36.6% 47.2% 51.0% 36.1% 36.1% 25.5% 48.5% 63.3% 25.3% 25.9% 25.