You are on page 1of 65

FACULTY OF ENGINEERING AND THE ENVIRONMENT

Design of a Discrete-Event Simulation Model for a
Bus Rapid Transit System (BRTS) in Guayaquil, Ecuador
By:
0

BENIGNO ALFREDO ARMIJOS DE LA CRUZ

A Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the degree of
Master of Science (M.Sc.) Transportation Planning and Engineering
October 2015

1

SUMMARY
Governments from developing countries face a shortage of public funds for
mobility and accessibility projects and, more than ever, must take the most of
available budget to guarantee a good public transport service. BRT system, as a
public transport network, has demonstrated in recent decades to be a profitable
alternative for boosting an environment-friendly mobility at a low cost with a
high attractiveness for non-motorised users. Nevertheless, it is not the ‘panacea’
or ‘magic wand’ that can resolve existing urban transport issues by itself in both
developed and emerging economies. Actually, it has its own operative, urban,
demographic, cultural and political constraints that have produced a growing
body of research in order to address possible workarounds for improving the
declining image of this highway transit system in some cities, especially from
Latin America. Bearing in mind the cumbersome situation above-mentioned, it is
crucial for transport planners and policy makers to study innovative methods
concerned with analysis and policy formulation oriented to the continuous
improvement of BRT systems.
Since 1955, the use of computer modelling and simulation tools for solving
problems of transport planning and engineering have gained popularity owing to
its benefits such as study a complex system at several different levels of
abstraction contemplating the essential elements of a real-world system
behaviour, evaluate effects of particular layout decisions during the design phase
diminishing the overall cost of building a transport system and generate a
suitable and accurate solutions enabling a rapid prototyping of the scenarios to
be modelled. A discrete-event modelling and simulation based on an objectoriented approach is considered for the development of this research as a robust
method consisting in segregating a complex system on a group of processes
executed simultaneously at separate/discrete points of time. Both supply (buses,
corridors, stations, traffic lights) and demand factors (passenger) pertaining to a
BRT system are synchronized and represented as object instances in a 2D/3D
animation for verification and communication purposes. Finally, a set of
assumptions and constraints are declared in order to support the outcomes,
looking at the whole mass transit network.
In order to design and deploy the aforementioned model, Simio as a microscopic
transport modelling and simulation software is used in this dissertation that
enables the design and interactive relationship between passengers, bus stops,
vehicles, corridors and traffic lights as part of a traditional BRT system. One
corridor of Metrovia BRT system whose operation is performed in Guayaquil,
Ecuador is the case study selected with the aim of understanding the key factors
affecting passenger density and bus service reliability in this type of public
transport system as well as modelling its existing infrastructure through the
software package aforementioned. Particularly, the effects of changing a bus
fleet design are quantified running an experiment based on the circulation of
double decker buses rather than bendy buses during peak periods. Lastly, userdefined statistics such as stop capacity, load factors, waiting times, journey
times and headway times are obtained from Simio with the purpose of
comparing those outcomes with the current throughput of Metrovia BRT system.
Outstanding results about simulation outputs are also discussed and some
2

a noteworthy gratefulness to the President of Ecuador Rafael Correa who provided me the opportunity to achieve my fondest dream of pursuing a postgraduate degree in a prestigious foreign university through a scholarship 3 . my sincere thankfulness to my whole family for their tenderness and far-reaching prayers as well as all my dear friends and colleagues for their unconditional support and words of encouragement. Finally. Additionally. shared knowledge and comprehensive support given for the execution of this research as well as the academic opportunities offered as a Student Representative with the aim of increasing my professional skills and wellbeing in the Faculty of Engineering and the Environment. In the same vein. my special thanks to Aondoseer Atoo. David Sturrock (Simio LLC) and Jeffrey Smith (Auburn University) for providing me a valuable insight for using an academic version of Simio software package and all their mentorship about advance modelling and simulation as well as its potential applications in public transport systems. a special consideration goes to my personal tutor and supervisor Dr. Ecuador. Shalini Sharma and Marissa Wang for all the moments and memories that we shared during our postgraduate studies. I would like to say thanks to God and Virgin Mary for all the blessings received from them during the course of my postgraduate studies at University of Southampton. Moreover. Lingao Han. I express my sincere thanks to Pablo Medina and Luis Montesdeoca for their aid and brotherhood during our efforts oriented to achieve our common goals in United Kingdom. Furthermore.potential solutions are provided to the BRT operating company based on best practices deployed in similar public transport systems across other countries in South America which has been analysed regularly by the scientific community dedicated to find innovative alternatives for enhancing passenger capacity and service reliability of mass rapid transit systems around the globe. Likewise. I express my heartfelt gratitude to my parents Benigno Armijos and Luisa De La Cruz who have always been my cornerstone for overcoming the foremost adversities of my life. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First of all. Tafta Nugraha. particularly throughout the vast challenges associated with the development of this complex dissertation as well as the growth of my faith and personal resilience in both countries United Kingdom and Ecuador. Ben Waterson for all his valuable guidance. my exceptional acknowledgement to Edward Williams (University of Michigan-Dearborn). my sincerest thanks to Leopoldo Falquez and Pedro Cordova who represent Metrovia Foundation for the unrestricted accessibility to bus terminals and stations during my investigation as well as all the information provided about the implementation and current operation of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) Systems in Guayaquil. Besides. In addition.

awarded by the Secretary of Higher Education. Technology and Innovation (SENESCYT). This is just the beginning for the enhancement of our productive matrix. Science. 4 .

.... 13 2........9 Chapter 2.... 10 Literature Review..13 2..........................................................19 3...................14 2......................2 Modelling Bus and Corridor Parameters............................................................................................... 25 5 .....3...........TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMARY........................................12 2.........10 2.............................................................3 Model Development with Simio..................................................... 7 1.....................................1 Discrete-Event Simulation: Advantages and Drawbacks....................................... 15 2...........................................................................................................................................................3.........5 Research Assumptions and Constraints...............1.................17 3.................1 Bus Rapid Transit Systems: Definition and Design Elements...................................1....................................4 Research Expected Outcomes.......................... 1 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS..............2 Challenges associated with Capacity and Service Reliability of BRT Systems...........14 2......... 16 Chapter 3..............................1..2 Queueing Systems: Theoretical Framework and Performance Measures.....................................................................................4 Research Significance............. 17 3......................................................................................................................................................................3 Modelling and Simulation of Bus Rapid Transit Systems................................10 2.......................................21 3.............................. 6 Chapter 1..3... 17 Research Methodology.......... 7 1...............................7 1........9 1............................................................................................................ 2 LIST OF FIGURES..................20 3.......................................................... 5 LIST OF TABLES..................................................................................................................................... 10 2.......1 Overcrowding of BRT Stations and Overloading of Vehicles..............11 2......................................................................................................2................................1 The Impact of Bus Rapid Transit on Public Transport.................................19 3.............................................................2 Delays in BRT Stations and Terminals..................................................14 2..............................................................2..................................................................................................................................3................23 Chapter 4........... Site Study............... 17 3..............2 Problem Statement and Motivation..3 Research Objectives...................................................................................................3 Simio as Alternative to Model and Simulate Bus Rapid Transit Systems.1..................1 Background..1 Modelling Passenger and Station Parameters....................................2 Bus Rapid Transit Statistics in the World and Latin America............3 Benefits and Drawbacks of Bus Rapid Transit Systems...........3....... 7 Introduction...................................................2 Data Collection Scheme...........................................

2.......2..................................1 Background.....................3......................................................2....................................................................................................................2................................2.................................................................. 48 Appendix G..................................................3 Model Calibration........................... Pictures of Metrovia Bus Rapid Transit System Terminals and Other Facilities................................... 42 Appendix A.............................................................................44 Appendix C............................................................2 Data Analysis.................................................................................. Origin-Destination Matrix for AM Peak Period .......... Add-On Process and Steps for Vehicle Movements in Simio............. 41 5... 49 Reference List........................1 Passenger Daily Demand during Peak Periods......2 Passenger Daily Boarding and Alighting Counts during Peak Periods27 4...................... 34 4..............................26 4............................6 Bus Daily Headway Time during Peak Periods................................... Origin-Destination Matrix for Inter Peak Period ..................................32 4...3 Passenger Daily Travel Activity during Peak Periods.......................3 Bus Ride Capacity....................29 4....................39 5.................................3.......2 Passenger Origin-Destination Matrix.............................35 4................ Template for Passenger Demand Assessment for Peak Period and Week Day.4 Bus Lanes and Traffic Lights Cycle Timing...34 4.................. Template for Boarding and Alighting Counts inside BRT Vehicles during Peak Periods.............39 5............. 50 6 .....3......................37 Chapter 5........4 Bus Daily Journey Time among BRT Stations.....31 4................................................................. 25 4....... 40 5..............Data Analysis and Model Calibration.....................4 Recommendations...................Year 2015.............43 Appendix B..........46 Appendix E......................Year 2015.............25 4....5 Future Research................................45 Appendix D.........................................................1 Simulation Outcomes........................................3.................................. Transport and Travel Logic.... 47 Appendix F.............................................1 Passenger Inter-Arrival Times..................................................................................36 4..........................5 Bus Daily Load Factors and Dwell Time during Peak Periods.. 39 Result Analysis and Discussion.....................................Year 2015.......2 Discussion. 41 5......2....................28 4..... Origin-Destination Matrix for PM Peak Period ........................3 Conclusions........................... 26 4..............................................

..... Key Components of Metrovia BRT System in Guayaquil.........................................2.............. Comparison among Metrovia BRT Shelter and 3D View of a BRT Station in Simio. 2015).....2.......1. 2015).....28 7 ..... 2015)......3........2....1.............................25 Figure 4........................................1..........................1.... Blueprint of Existing BRT Corridors in Guayaquil.......2.......... 21 Figure 3..... Metrobastion Passenger Daily Demand during Peak Periods...... 22 Figure 3.4....................11 Figure 2. 8 Figure 2........................... Metrobastion Passenger Daily Boarding and Alighting Counts during Peak Periods.................. Blueprint of Metrobastión BRT Corridor (Metrovia........ 24 Figure 4................1.......................1....................1...................................................2................1...... Challenges of Metrovia BRT System in Guayaquil.......................1............1 .....1....................3..... 2013)... ............. 18 Figure 3..... 2013).1.... Ecuador..... Data Gathering Method for Metrovia BRT Corridor in Guayaquil..........................2..Bus Rapid Transit World Panorama (UITP.. 17 Figure 3... Tally and Output Statistics associated with Metrobastion BRT Corridor in Simio................................................................................................................................ 2015).....................2.....8 Figure 1.....LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1................. Current BRT Corridors managed by Metrovia Foundation (Metrovia........ Comparison among Metrovia BRT Bus Fleet and 3D Perspective of a BRT Bus Simio..Basic Elements of Bus Rapid Transit Systems (CTA.........1........................ Metrobastion Passenger Daily Travel Activity during Peak Periods.................. Ecuador....................... Bendy Bus) in Simio ...... Ecuador (Metrovia........3.................... Layout of Bus Fleet Designs (Double Decker vs... 12 Figure 3..................................2 ..................1. Ecuador (Metrovia..................5....3................2.........2............ 20 Figure 3.......................26 Figure 4........................................................... 27 Figure 4.........................................................10 Figure 2.......

.4..............................6...1........3......... Metrobastion Bus Daily Factors and Dwell Time during Peak Periods ..........2......................1...35 Table 4...................................................................... Examples of Simulation Approaches applied on BRT Systems..............3 ..........3............16 Table 3........1...............30 Figure 4. 2014)....1 Simio Suite Standard Library Objects (Kelton et.5..........2......2.....19 Table 3.............37 Table 4. Set of Properties and Values for an Entity Object in Simio...... Modelling Traffic Lights and its association to Bus Lanes in Simio... 37 Figure 4....Figure 4....................... Passenger Inter-Arrival Time Probability Distributions in Simio.2....3....1...........................1...4..............3D Simulation of a BRT System in Simio based on a Double Decker Bus Fleet..............3.....1....... Set of Properties and Values for a Source Object in Simio.....................................3...... .33 Figure 4.......21 Table 4. Development of Passenger Origin-Destination Matrix (ODM) in Simio .........................1.......... 42 LIST OF TABLES Table 2....al..........3..................... Simulation Outcomes about Double Decker Vehicle Productivity in Simio..3...............3..... Metrobastion Passenger Daily Travel Activity during Peak Periods......2................. Modelling of Bus Fleet Mixture Operations over Overloaded BRT Systems..35 Table 4.............................................................. 36 Figure 4..........1 Key Performance Indicators for Metrobastion BRT Corridor..........................5.. Set of Properties and Values for a Vehicle Object in Simio.....................................3..........................38 Figure 5...............38 8 ......3.......4.....35 Figure 4... Set of Properties and Values for a Path Object in Simio. 39 Figure 5........... Metrobastion Bus Headway Time during Peak Periods...... 31 Figure 4...... ........4....

e. traffic accidents. In light of this issues.084 vehicles circulating around the central business district (INEC. an exhaustive work developed by traffic engineers. social and cultural benefits of this highway transit mode with a greater presence in Latin America and Asia. Furthermore. 164 routes with 4096 bus units screening a surplus of bus services.408 dwellings and more than 793.Chapter 1 Introduction 1. being the bus fare ($0.000 citizens. around 2. transport planners and infrastructure designers has been evidenced in the interest of boosting the performance and credibility of this people-oriented transport system.489. At the moment.456 passengers per day in 195 cities across the world are gradually witnessing economic. alternative solutions specifically associated with bus fleet designs implemented in other well-known complex urban systems are considered in furtherance of boosting a transit oriented development in South America.1 Background Road transport has been seriously responsible for negative externalities positioned in most of the cities such as road safety. However. 2015). passenger capacity and service reliability) are part of the heavy public criticism often produced by its regular non-motorised users. a significant number of issues (i. considering its existing supply and demand variables affecting its current operation performance. The growth of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems have allowed to deploy an outstanding alternative in urban areas with the aim of increasing public transport patronage and offering better levels of sustainable mobility and accessibility. Therefore. environmental.25) the lowest in Latin America.2 Problem Statement and Motivation Guayaquil is the largest and most populated city as well as the second most congested metropolitan area in Ecuador with a surface area of 345 km 2. the necessity for implementing innovative and affordable public transport alternatives has been a critical issue during recent decades. Using the case of Guayaquil. giving as a consequence an untrustworthy mass transit system. unrestrained growth of private motor vehicles and other adverse impacts on local and national macroeconomic indicators. 1.690. above 671. especially in developing countries where sustainable mobility for lower class and defenceless societies is required as part of the imperative conditions for achieving the new global Sustainable Development Goals. this research provides a worth knowledge of the common issues saturating passenger capacity and service reliability on BRT systems through an object-oriented modelling/simulation approach. until 2005 bus operators were grouped in 72 cooperatives. characterized by higher operating costs and key contributors of traffic jam and air pollution (average age of public transport buses was 18 years). more than 32. As a result. 9 .Its public transport patronage is approximately 80%. urban gridlock and oil dependence. Ecuador. Nonetheless.

feeder and complementary routes to be completely implemented before year 2020. 2007). expressways are just marked from side to side with horizontal painted signs.1. In relationship with the layout of busways and expressways of the network. providing massive transportation to and from the mayor residential and work areas. among stations of the whole network. Route Struct ure Servic es Bus Fleet Bus Station s Runnin g Ways Fare Collect ion Intellig ent Transp ortatio n Syste ms Figure 1. large integration stations for feeder services. 2015). plastic bumps. Busways are located on the median. diminishing transportation costs and boosting competitiveness across the city. This public transport mode supports the Urban Development Plan of Guayaquil.2. across 3 corridors with more than 90 bus stops. these travel ways have dissimilar treatments according to the urban design and roadway conditions around the city. its transport demand is about 310. enclosed stations with level boarding and prepayment and advanced control and ticketing schemes”. 10 . As Hidalgo and Graftieaux (2007) point out.000 passengers per day with a peak load around 15. BRT corridors currently operating in an operating speed of 21 km/h are described in Figure 1. Currently. Conversely. Metrovia system is a “feeder-trunk system. acknowledged as an exceptional advancement for achieving a sustainable mobility across the city (Von Buchwald.Metrovia BRT system was introduced in July 2006 with the aim of increasing mobility for the majority of citizens.2.000 passengers per hour per direction and a peak frequency nearby 30 articulated buses per hour distributed in 45 km. Ecuador Metrovia BRT system is projected to progressively renovate all transit services across the city as a well-designed network of seven integrated corridors. Lane separation is provided through a concrete barrier along the road. spaced by an average distance of circa 400 m. (Global BRTData. with longitudinally segregated busways for trunk services. but there are other situated on the left hand side or in the central lane. including weaving sections for guiding traffic from the median lane towards the curbside lane. Key Components of Metrovia BRT System in Guayaquil.

Contribute to the development of novel solutions.Figure 1.2. heightened boarding/alighting times. Moreover. in-vehicle times.2. Provide a better insight of the drawbacks affecting transit oriented development in complex urban environments. disrespect among commuters as well as high frequency of accidents and injuries close to bus doors. Bearing in mind these operational setbacks. and headway times). elucidating the critical success factors to be considered in further implementations of BRT systems across the globe.3 Research Objectives The overarching objective of this research is to improve the decision-making process of potential solutions to be adopted as transport policies on the performance of BRT systems through a discrete-event modelling and simulation based on an object-oriented approach. overcrowding at bus stations (density of roughly 6 pax/m2). 2015) Notwithstanding. the outcomes of this research will be considered with the purpose of finding novel solutions to be considered as transport policies that could diminish the operational risks associated with passenger capacity (overcrowding of vehicles and stations) and service reliability (travel times. Current BRT Corridors managed by Metrovia Foundation (Metrovia. excessive waiting times (between 20-30 minutes during peak periods). 11 . several concerns have emerged during the last years of operations such as bus overloading (load factors superior to 80%). intolerable levels of insecurity inside stations. 1. waiting times. scarcity of synchronization in traffic lights). passenger discomfort accompanied by multiple rubbished claims about quality service provided by Metrovia system has been a relapsing topic pending to be resolved by the Municipality of Guayaquil. degradation of technical and physical network infrastructure (i. focused on a standard BRT system in South America. Therefore.e. this study seeks to:    Identify the key supply and demand variables influencing BRT performance.

 Illustrate the value of 2D/3D compelling animation of dynamic objects for a better understanding of mass transit systems. double-decker bus in England.4 Research Significance This research provides a far-reaching impact on the state-of-the-art discreteevent modelling and simulation of BRT systems. Simulation models are often large and difficult. The model identifies the substantial effect of supply and demand factors on an entire BRT corridor in Latin America. verification. validation and data-drive presentation of inputs/outputs during an end-to-end simulation. including a set of methods for calibration. The most effective design is identified if there is greatest enhancement in passenger throughput and no disturbance of bus service trustworthiness.e. 12 .1. being challenging to manage its complexity and comprehend both the details and the “big picture” of transport projects. bendy bus in Colombia).  Evaluate the effectiveness of different bus fleet designs implemented in the most distinguished BRT systems across the world (i. taking into account the milestones detailed below:  Design an innovative solution framework for modelling BRT systems networks. This helps to the awareness of the key drivers influencing transport networks. which could be considered during process improvement/reengineering projects associated with mass transit systems.

2013) as well as its operational performance (Muñoz et. Drawing on an extensive range of perspectives. Figure 2. Batarce et.1 The Impact of Bus Rapid Transit on Public Transport 2. 2015). 2007.Basic Elements of Bus Rapid Transit Systems Discussions about standard features that normally outline a BRT system basically correspond to dedicated right-of-way. 2013). 2007.1 associated with the case study. amenities and utilities that holistically rivalize in a cost-effective way with urban rail transport. to date there has been little agreement on the standardization of the definition for this “metro-level” bus system among transport planners and policy-makers (Boncompte and Galilea.al. Nonetheless.al. Cervero. off-board fare collection. enabling greater commercial speeds. 2015).al (2003) and Lindau et.al 13 . busbased transit system with a low cost of implementation and deployment (Niles and Jerram. Velez et. as is shown in Figure 2. intersection treatments and platform-level boarding. Vuchic. 2013. 2014. 2003. 2010.Chapter 2 Literature Review 2. there has been an increasing interest in the deployment of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems as a potential green mode of urban transport (PagetSeekins.1.1. Mishra et.1 . in a detailed examination developed by Scorcia (2010).al.al.al.1 Bus Rapid Transit Systems: Definition and Design Elements In recent years. 2013. Albeit there are criticism and scepticism about the sustainability and resilience of its infrastructure in developing countries (Hidalgo and Gutierrez. Nonetheless. Levinson et. 2013). generally this public transport alternative is well-recognized as a high quality service. service reliability and passenger capacity (Levinson et.1. Wright and Hook. BRT systems is frequently conceptualised as an integrated bus-based transit mode with a separate infrastructure composed by a set of equipment.). busway alignment.

of BRT corridors constructed in approximately 43 developed and developing nations (UITP. there has been a little published research as well as quantitative analysis about how a change in bus fleet designs influence passenger density and service reliability as key drivers of BRT systems performance. It is noteworthy that there has been a slower spread of BRT systems over developed countries from Europe and North America. Conversely. 2015). being Curitiba (Brazil) considered as the “forerunner” or “cradle” of this type of systems (Mejía-Dugand et. interface between buses and stations.(2012). vehicle load factors. owing to the traditional preference for urban rail systems. more than 31 million of passengers per day are conveyed by BRT systems in further than 190 cities around the world.2 Bus Rapid Transit Statistics in the World and Latin America The BRT industry has had a prominent deployment across the globe during the last 45 years. there has been a thriving deployment of this public transport concept across Asia Pacific. length of vehicles. 2013. Moreover.1.e. travel speeds and pre-planned fleet assignment and scheduling strategies (i. thus the relevance of the outcomes in this dissertation.al. with approximately 5. 14 .2. accounting almost 30% of the global patronage related to this mobility model. total system capacity and commercial speeds. number of berths at stations. On the other hand. short turning. 2013). there is a prospective niche development in Oceania (Currie and Delbosc. Finn and Muñoz (2014) also determine critical design elements on BRT systems such as appropriate station capacity and junction control. 2014) and South Africa (Venter. 2. the key physical and operational elements that have a significant impact on its systemic efficiency are particularly traffic signal timing. deadheading. As is described in Figure 2. concordance with existing regime as well as a lack of sufficient examples of BRT implementations as potential mobility solutions for these regions (Filipe and Macário. location of the bus stops in regard with traffic signals.200 km. Vermeire et. 2015) to be covered by BRT systems with the aim of reaching a global maturity for overtaking other non-BRT transit ridership. Middle East and North Africa in recent decades. holding and expressing).al.1. spacing between bus stations. 2013).

Figure 2. Most of them are categorized as gold-standard and silver-standard as systems that achieve an outstanding performance with an unquestionably compliance to international best practices (ITDP. being concentrated most of the national ridership in the latter city (28% and 72% respectively). 2011). Argentina with 4% of its ridership dispersed in 3 cities and finally Ecuador with 6% of its patronage scattered in 2 cities. road congestion reductions.al. analysing them from dissimilar perspectives such as availability. 2013) identify conclusive impacts associated with the implementation of this mass transit system such as journey time savings. Transantiago in Santiago. Hensher et. Some authors (e. Latin America. accessibility. Guayaquil and Quito account for about 1.2 .al (2014) observes: “BRT systems can be delivered at a fraction of the cost of a rail based system. In a large longitudinal analysis developed by EMBARQ (2015) associated with the BRT industry in Ecuador. affordability. 2. safety and security (Sorg.3 Benefits and Drawbacks of Bus Rapid Transit Systems A large and growing body of literature has investigated the strengths and weaknesses of BRT systems. Likewise. Chile and Metrobus-Q in Quito (Ecuador). between four to twenty times less than a light rail transit system and between 15 . 2015) Particularly.1. reliability.3 million passengers per day represents roughly 62% of all BRT ridership in 12 countries. being spread mainly in Brazil with 60% of its ridership widespread in 33 cities.Bus Rapid Transit World Panorama (UITP. Carrigan et. México with 9% of its patronage deployed in 10 cities. 2015). non-motorised users’ growth and bettered urban surroundings. Transmilenio in Bogota (Colombia).g. An outline of the most successful and famous of BRT implementations across Latin America are Integrated Transit Network (RIT) in Curitiba (Brazil).2 million passengers per day.1. Colombia with 15% of its demand distributed in 6 cities. with 19.

insufficient legislation and regulation.al (2008) found that exposure to air pollutants and other volatile organic compounds during commuting could be effectually decreased by BRT systems in contrast with other conventional transport modes (i. Correspondingly. scarcity of control upon system operation. constrained operational budgets. Similarly. it seems that positive externalities associated with the employment of this public transport system are numerous with the purpose of fostering a sustainable urban mobility. overcrowding of stations and terminals. discontinuous political commitment. Muñoz and Hidalgo (2013) revealed technical drawbacks that have in common well-known BRT systems in South America such as Transantiago (Chile) and Transmilenio (Colombia). hasty implementations. 2015) Conversely. Ecuador (Metrovia.ten to 100 times less than a metro system for the equivalent level of service (in contrast to vehicle) capacity per hour”. 16 . delayed fare integration.e. therefore. In general. in a study conducted by Wöhrnschimmel et. minibuses and buses). vulnerable system to protests and robbery.1. Risky floors on stations. for example. lack of accessibility for handicapped passengers. congestion on bus lanes. vehicles with missing route information. stiffness for boarding/alighting. untimely worsening of facilities. Figure 2.al (2014) reported a set of remaining issues associated with planning and executing BRT projects. scarcity of community involvement. Challenges of Metrovia BRT System in Guayaquil. poorly infrastructure maintenance and inadequate trunk and feeder network are just an overview of the traditional shortcomings that BRT industry must overcome for providing a greater quality of service.3. excessive load factors on vehicles. in developed and emerging economies. Rizvi and Sclar (2014) and Lindau et. advertising of mobility substitutes. invasion of exclusive lanes. as well as perception of BRT systems as a lower quality transport method.

In some cities across Latin America.e. 2008). defined the actual number of passengers (including both seating and standing) inside vehicles.2. overloading of BRT vehicles is commonly measured by the occupancy rate or load factor. Other authors determine the degree of overloading on buses computing the density of standees per square metre. Disruptions during the operation (e. comfort.1 Overcrowding of BRT Stations and Overloading of Vehicles Passenger capacity on BRT systems generally is defined as the maximum quantity of passengers that can be transported per direction per hour. 2014). regardless of the size or capacity of a vehicle (Hemily and King. Therefore. strike actions and high-profile crime) are issues that can produce this traditional drawback on BRT systems. In contrast. Sun et al. availability of bus lanes. It is necessary to highlight that overcrowding is not an inevitable part of a successful public transport system as well as a simply urban problem. overcrowding is the most frequent criticism reflected in BRT passenger studies (Duduta and Subedi. in-vehicle time. As Abkowitz and Engelstein (1983) observes: “journey time among successive bus stations depends on the speed profile of the bus. By drawing on the concept of dwell time.g. the lessening of overloading/overcrowding conditions are associated as outstanding components for achieving BRT service quality enhancement and considered as dominating aspects in the study of engineering and design factors regarded with BRT vehicles and stations. A significant analysis and discussion on the subject was presented by Tirachini et al. BRT stations are a key driver in providing satisfactory capacity along a BRT line. including the time necessary to open and close doors.2 Delays in BRT Stations and Terminals The operating time of BRT services encompasses driving amidst bus stations and dwell time at every bus stop. Naturally. They are also a critical factor in achieving higher levels of identity and image as a public transport mode. traffic accidents.2. plus 17 . (2013) which concludes that overloading as a negative externality on BRT industry has undesirable consequences on travel time reliability. worsening the experience of passengers for travelling through BRT systems. and urban gridlocks) as well as unconventional traveller behaviour (i. 2015). journey time savings as well as optimal transport supply and pricing. This issue have a far-reaching impact on businesses and tourism activities. overcrowding on BRT stations is not exclusively caused by insufficient physical infrastructure. Data from several sources have identified that if a load factor is 80% or a standing density is between 4 and 5 passengers per square metre is a clear indicator of overloading conditions. 2.2 Challenges associated with Capacity and Service Reliability of BRT Systems 2. length of the link. schedules and timetables. accessibility to active control strategies and further factors such as traffic signal management”. reducing the attractiveness of cities as a great place to live and also make investments (Herbon and Hadas. waiting time. driver behaviour. which depends principally on the physical dimensions of bus stops to support passenger demand inside bus stops and bus density through available bus berths.2. an analysis to be covered in this dissertation. (2014) defines the matter as: “the period in which a BRT vehicle is stopped to transfer passengers.

e. It is defined as a computer-assisted modelling approach that offers a stochastic. if the commercial speed is preserved constant. it often makes sense to split a continuous process into discrete parts in order to streamline its study. Discrete-Event Simulation (DES) can achieve this goal.3 Modelling and Simulation of Bus Rapid Transit Systems 2. scalable and insightful method for representing the behaviour of a real-world system as a well-organized discrete sequence of events (i. resources (e. Instability of boarding and alighting times could have expected but unexplored consequences on bus interval volatility.e.” Dwell time may cover a great proportion of total travel time.any other time whereby a bus has its doors open without passenger service. Alternatively. bus frequency and dwell time are strategic factors influencing the relationship between station spacing and passenger demand. traffic lights and bus stops). transport and routing). Tirachini (2014) reported that on BRT services with a fixed-stopping scheme. In an investigation into engineering of bus stops. BRT systems with a lengthy boarding/alighting policy are regarded with excessive dwell times. 2012). generating bottlenecks characterized by queueing delays into the BRT system. vehicles and passengers). bus station spacing should be decreased with passenger demand. optimal bus stop size. 2. Nonetheless. waiting time. parameters and performance measures that are embedded as part of the outcomes of this research project. with growing waiting times. commercial speed. fundamentally relies on temporal and spatial variances in passenger demand and results from the trade-off among capacity and construction cost. queues (e.1 Discrete-Event Simulation: Advantages and Drawbacks The vast majority of operations observed in the society consist of continuous changes. 18 . but if vehicle speed along with boarding/alighting operations are accelerated then bus stop spacing is preserved large even for high passenger demand. journey time and headway time as core catalizers of bus service reliability in BRT systems. which shows the importance of boarding and alighting processes on BRT operation.g.e. and also decrease the optimal distance among bus stops. In view of all that has been discussed so far. Likewise. Particularly.g. The duration of the activities regarded with the system to be modelled are usually sampled from probability distribution functions whose logic can govern the flow of entities around the underlying system. Whilst bus frequency is high and/or dwell times are lengthy. this operational research technique has been widely employed in a variety of applications including transportation. when the analysis of these processes is required. bus lanes and berths). in terms of the number of berths to be built. prediction. vehicles could arrive at bus stations whereas previous vehicles are using all available berths for loading/unloading passengers. Along with urban gridlock and demand variability. logistics and supply network management (Tako and Robinson. these studies outline the critical role of dwell time.3. The basic components of almost all DES models are entities (i. Throughout time. or optimising specified performance criteria. time and state) that may alter its overall state. dwell time deviation declines the likelihood of service trustworthiness. and activities (i. giving as a result queueing delays when bus frequency is relatively lofty. The overarching objective of these models is often the comparison of scenarios.

customers and passengers) arrive.e. queueing analysis become more complex). Conversely. concluding that these models are very complex and difficult to be understood owing to the level of uncertainty existing in almost all queueing circumstances. this approach delivers a set of statistical and analytical methods (e. production and many other situations where congestion or competition for scarce resources may occur. there are some disadvantages associated with DES models. Kelton et al. and then may leave.DES technique is advantageous because of it uses graphical user interface and animation with the aim of representing entities and events that occur in real systems. regarding with providing models that are capable of determining arrival pattern of customers or most appropriate number of service stations. Rahman (2013) provides in-depth analysis of the major limitations of queueing theory. might have to wait in one or more queues for service. get served either at a single station or at several stations in turn. Besides. short-term or transient followed by long-term or steady-state behaviour. as it is easy to draw disastrously wrong conclusions. (2014) defines a queueing system as one in which entities (i. confidence intervals for simulation outcomes) displayed in tabular or graphical forms while the simulation is running. Further interesting performance measures of queueing models are time in queue (time that an entity spends waiting in line). simulation results need intelligent analysis by people with some knowledge of statistics. Furthermore. delays or interactions and constraints can be added using this approach with the aim of meeting specific demands. The three basic elements of a queuing process are arrivals characteristics (size of the calling population. the waiting line features (length of a queue and queue discipline) and service facilities (configuration of the service system and service time distribution).g. this mathematical approach contributes with a better understanding of waiting lines so as to develop adequate service with tolerable waiting. interarrival distribution and behaviour of the arrival).g. if the assumption of ‘first come. Moreover. Likewise.3.2 Queueing Systems: Theoretical Framework and Performance Measures Queueing theory is a mathematical method oriented to study waiting lines or queues. Queueing systems typically have two states of behaviour. more complex logic. Queuing models have found widespread use in the analysis of service facilities. providing at the same time a reliable understanding to the modeller. queueing models are helpful in creating balance between the two opportunity costs for optimization of waiting costs and service costs. For instance. this alternative does not provide an impact to the real variability and only support measures of central tendency. number in system (number of entities in queue plus in service) and utilization of a server (time-average number of individual servers in the group who are busy. In addition. the 19 . DES is not suitable for modelling human behaviour because its key purpose is to focus on the processes and events related to the system. first served’ is not a true one. Besides. Möller (2014) points out the main benefits of queueing theory. divided by the total number of servers in the group). In addition. 2. DES approach is usually criticised by its significant time consumption to get statistically significant results as well as to perform sensitivity analyses. queue discipline may also impose certain limitations (e. Contrariwise. Moreover. time in system (time in queue plus the time in service). queue length (number of entities in queue). Furthermore.

Furthermore. traffic controls and other configurations.al (2013) Ancora et. Nevertheless. vehicles. making the analysis more challenging. Vissim and Aimsun as can be seen in Table 2. Moreover.al (2006) VanderWerf t (2005) Main Objective Discuss about the potential use of discrete event simulation framework to model the dynamics of a BRT system. the departure from one queue often forms the arrival of another. in an analysis of the current software packages available in BRT market.3 Simio as Alternative to Model and Simulate Bus Rapid Transit Systems The development of BRT modelling and simulation software has significantly assisted the process of transport supply and demand predictions. Develop a microscopic simulation approach in order to perform a capacity analysis on BRT corridors for handling high volumes of transit buses.observed patterns of service times and interarrival times cannot be fitted in the mathematical distributions of usually assumed in queuing models. considering variables such as speed. Examples of Simulation Approaches applied on BRT Systems 20 . Wright and Hook (2007) reported that although the existence of strongest and well-known modelling and simulation software such as Paramics.3. Compare two priority strategies and integrate them with exclusive bus lane to see how they would impact public transport efficiency.al (2012) Siddique et. travel time. Indonesia Simulink MathWork s Delhi BRTS.1. Introduce a new tool for modelling and simulating in 3D BRT technologies and policies that haven’t been fully explored in deployed systems. Therefore. delay and capacity factors.al (2013) Widanapath iranage et.1. China Vissim PTV Brisbane Busway. there is no a standard suite that will be inherently correct.1. Canada NETSIM N/A USA SmartBRT Table 2. Australia Aimsun TSS EUR Rome Italy Arena Rockware Transitway. in multi-server queueing systems. these software packages are characterized by their expensive sunk costs as well as the lack of capabilities for a robust BRT network analysis. India Vissim PTV Yingtan. Hence. Author Gunawan (2014) Raj et.1. bus stops. Simio is considered as the solution for this research project. Analyse the relationship between bus station capacity and BRT line bus capacity for a specified range of controlled scenarios of dwell time features Propose a new microsimulation framework called TRANSIMT considering passenger.al (2014) Yang et. the importance of finding an accessible and low-cost DES tool that let the modeller to emulate a real mass transit system in a fast and cost-effective form. from the author’s perspective. Provide a quantitative performance framework. BRT Case Software TransJakarta. 2.

In the first it is possible to watch the animated model execute. Therefore. making the modelling process very intuitive and considering animation useful to reflect the changing state of the object. 21 . there are not many studies that use Simio for modelling BRT systems. whereby models are built through the employment of objects that represent the physical elements of real systems. the model logic and animation are built in a single step in this software. Up to now. which is useful for building and validating the model. a library of graphic symbols for animating 3D objects. It is feasible to build customised models using the objects provided in the Standard Object Library. the potential of representing the Metrovia BRT System based on DES and OOM approaches is highly challenging but eyecatching for the scientific community interested in knowing more about modelling and simulation of BRT systems in Latin America. it is possible to find some studies that used this tool for other types of transportation problems.Simio employs an object-oriented modelling approach. Likewise. Simio also offers two basic modes for executing models: the interactive and the experimental modes. Furthermore. Simio also supports 3D animation as a natural part of the modelling process. Nevertheless. Simio provides a direct link to SketchUp 3D Warehouse. which is general purpose set of objects that comes standard with Simio. In addition to the usual 2D animation.

considering information availability for this transport mode as well as other technical features (e. security inside vehicles and safety throughout the system).1. Ecuador (Metrovia. Blueprint of Existing BRT Corridors in Guayaquil. Each bus station has a standard capacity of around 200 passengers with the purpose of supporting the daily travel demand. Finally. 22 . one of the three existing BRT trunks is compulsory to be identified.Chapter 3 Research Methodology 3. Site Study Figure 3. accessibility on stations. Hence. the trunk “Metrobastión” which cover the route “Bastion Popular .50 kilometres of segregated bus lanes restricted of overtaking manoeuvres as can be described in Figure 3. this corridor has a current daily demand of roughly 170.5 km/h.1.720 passenger per hour per direction with 24 bus stations distributed in almost 16.000 passengers per day with a peak load around 5.1.g.Bastion Popular” is chosen as a representative sample for analysing and modelling of the day-to-day operation and throughput related to the BRT system in Guayaquil. Working since 2008.1.2. Regarding to vehicle fleet characteristics. throughout the BRT corridor there are 35 traffic lights with an average effective green time of 30 seconds and mean effective red time of 60 seconds. more than 65 articulated with a capacity of 160 passengers (35 sitting and 125 standing) circulate on the network with an average operating speed of 21. 2015) With the aim of assessing passenger capacity and service reliability on Metrovia BRT System.Centro” and “Centro . selected and analysed.

arrival and departure time as well as number of alighting and boarding passengers has been registered by each bus stop. Ecuador During the bus trip across the different shelters of the corridor.3. every data sheet has been consolidated per peak period per day in order to proceed with the data cleansing stage as well as other methods with the aim of obtaining the baseline of measurements pertaining to passenger service times of the BRT corridor selected. primarily traveling inside of a sample of articulated buses and visiting some specific bus shelters associated with the BRT corridor during 10 typical work days from Monday to Friday (excluding weekends) for the following peak periods:    AM Peak (06:00 AM .3.2.08:00 PM) Figure 3.2.e. At the end of the survey. etc. Some additional observations has been provided by the operating company associated with the physical characteristics of each BRT station (i. As this data is not available automatically from the operating company it is necessary to undertake a survey which can then be scaled up to provide an overall Origin-Destination Matrix (ODM) as well as other key performance indicators associated with the BRT corridor in study. A sample of passengers boarding the bus has also been noted to identify which corresponding stops they alight at.09:00 AM) Inter Peak (12:00 PM . As can be seen in Figure 3. Finally. in the destination terminal the surveyor has recorded the number of passengers remaining and arrival time of the bus. Data Gathering Method for Metrovia BRT Corridor in Guayaquil.02:00 PM) PM Peak (05:00 PM .). data gathering is based on a regular visual observation of the BRT system in Guayaquil.2 Data Collection Scheme Central to being able to model the BRT system accurately is an assessment of the boarding and alighting stops of current users. bus fleet size. other data has been collected across the most congested bus stops (visually identified throughout the survey) 23 .1. bus stop spacing. Finally.

A link over which entities may independently move at their own speeds. BRT Element Passenger Type Passenger Demand Passenger Departure Bus Stops/ Terminals Traffic Lights Bus Fleet Boarding Doors Alighting Doors Bus Lanes Table 3. 2014). Destroy entities that have completed processing in the model. Simio has been selected as a tool for performing a microscopic simulation of the BRT network. enter. Likewise. including the facility to use a network of paths to move among objects.3 Model Development with Simio Once the network acknowledgment and data gathering stages have been declared. and unloaded by vehicle objects (Kelton et al. as can be seen in Figure 3. conveyed. etc. Entities are also considered for establishing a travel logic through sequence tables as foremost components for the construction of the ODM based on the observed trip generation and distribution patterns related to the BRT system. the capacity to visit.3.in order to validate the accuracy of the information gathered inside the BRT vehicles. Models a simple intersection which entities may be picked up/dropped off by a transporter. A transporter that can follow a fixed route or perform on-demand pickups/drop-offs. considering the advantages of its object-oriented modelling approach. and exit locations within other objects through transfer and basic nodes. bus lanes. Models a complex intersection for changing destination and travel model. 2014) 3.1 Simio Suite Standard Library Objects (Kelton et.1. there are key objects from the Simio standard library objects to be considered in order to design the BRT system related to passengers.3.1. it is necessary to specify which factors of the BRT system can be represented through a software package. 3. stations. As can be described in Table 3.3. A generic object that can be seized and released by other objects. bus stops can be modelled as servers with the aim of performing the loading and unloading of entities through its basic and transfer nodes.al.3. traffic lights.. Represents a capacitated process such as a machine or service operation. vehicles.1 Modelling Passenger and Station Parameters Passengers of the BRT system can be represented as entities in Simio software package. and the option to be loaded. Object Description Represents a dynamic object in the model that can follow a work flow in the system Generates entity objects of a specified type and arrival pattern. Each transfer node has basically 2 main functions: transfer entities originated from sources toward servers (emulating the arrival of passengers to BRT shelters) and 24 .

This type of transporter object has the core capability of loading. Its transport properties support the definition of essential features for the operation of a BRT bus and its relationship with the passenger behaviour (i. each server has a defined process logic composed by a fixed capacity for processing entities. Moreover. ride capacity. moving and unloading entities throughout the network composed principally by paths and servers. LIFO.). Likewise. FIFO. dwell time. Moreover.) as well as a set of input buffer.3.1.3. transfer and basic nodes close to the server are connected with a single path in order to control the number of vehicles that are able to park close the server for performing pickups/drop-offs of entities (acting as berths in a real BRT station). etc. Figure 3. load/unload time. etc. the central purpose of each basic node is unload entities from vehicles and transfer them to sinks (representing in that way the departure of passengers from BRT stations).load entities into vehicles approaching the server. vehicle speed and the network considered to operate its vehicle fleet is defined through its travel logic.g.2 Modelling Bus and Corridor Parameters BRT bus fleet BRT can be modelled as vehicles in Simio software package. 25 . routing logic enable to set up a vehicle travel sequence which let to execute boarding and alighting operations across the various basic and transfer nodes associated with the multiple servers processing entities. Finally. ranking rules for serving entities based on queueing principles (e. Conversely. output buffer and processing stations for controlling queues produced by the arrival and departure patterns of passengers on BRT stops.e. Besides. Comparison among Metrovia BRT Shelter and 3D View of a BRT Station in Simio 3.

2. In addition. selection rules and off shift actions for each one of the vehicles to be employed in both upstream and downstream lanes of the BRT network. entry ranking rules based on queueing methods (e. LIFO.3. considering the current infrastructure and nameplate capacity of Metrovia BRT system in Guayaquil.4.).2. as can be viewed in Figure 3. FIFO. a set of indicators are summarised in Table 3.4 Research Expected Outcomes With the aim to analyse the operational capacity and service trustworthiness of Metrobastion BRT corridor.1. etc.g.3. daily patterns. which are the foundation for justifying the use of a discrete-event modelling and simulation approach in this research project. speed limits as well as logical lengths between servers as the current spacing among BRT stations with the purpose of determining real journey times along the BRT network. Comparison among Metrovia BRT Bus Fleet and 3D Perspective of a BRT Bus Simio 3. In addition.resource and reliability properties allow the modeller to determine work schedules. bus lanes can also be represented in Simio as paths that are basically used for controlling overtaking manoeuvres. Figure 3. Indicator Definition 26 Category . traveller capacity. Ecuador. paths can also support the management of traffic lights (modelled in Simio as resources) through add-on process triggers once a vehicle has approached the end of the path close to the next server.

Passenger Density Service Reliability Service Reliability Service Reliability Table 3. These outcomes will enable a comprehensive assessment about the effects of changing a bus fleet design.Load Factor Journey Time Waiting Time Headway Time Average percentage of offered bus capacity utilized by passengers during peak periods Average time considering bus dwell time at origin stop plus in-vehicle travel time between the origin and destination stops. Average time between the passing of the front ends of successive bus units moving along the same direction.1 Key Performance Indicators for Metrobastion BRT Corridor In the same vein. Passengers boarding at the earliest portion of 27 . 2007)  Journey Time: Factors involved for determining the total travel time of a trip are stated in Equation 3.4.4.4. state and tally user-defined statistics as is illustrated in Figure 3.4.1. which are also defined in Simio as part of the set of output. Higher bus capacity can in the right circumstances increase BRT system capacity. Equation 3. load factors depends on passenger density during peak periods and the available ride capacity.4.1.3. Tally and Output Statistics associated with Metrobastion BRT Corridor in Simio  Load Factor: As can be viewed in Equation 3. Figure 3. Bus Load Factor for a BRT System (Wright and Hook. Average time between the passenger arrival and next bus departure in a specific bus stop. to be obtained after running the underlying simulation of Metrobastion BRT Corridor. formulas for obtaining the aforementioned indicators are detailed below.4.4.1.

vehicles. Passenger Waiting Time for a BRT System (Liu and Sinha. bearing in mind its impact on the metrics to be obtained through this simulation.4. traffic lights.4. which is defined traditionally as an M/M/1 queueing system.the loop route will have the longest journey time to arrive at the transfer terminal. etc. Equation 3. stations.al.4.6 determines the time between the passing of the front ends of successive bus units moving along the same corridor in the same direction.3. Bus Headway Time for a BRT System (Saberi et. 28 . the more inconvenient transit service becomes Equation 3.) other assumptions are also described below.4. 2007)  Waiting Time: Factors involved for estimating the average waiting time are announced in Equation 3. With the intention of representing the foremost characteristics of a BRT system (i.2. Bus Journey Time for a BRT System (Wright and Hook.4.5 Research Assumptions and Constraints The cornerstone of this discrete-event model is defined by queueing theory principles. bearing in mind the frequency of buses per hour defined for the operation of the BRT corridor to be analysed. passengers.e.4.5. 2007)  Headway Time: Equation 3. Equation 3. based on the foremost statement that each bus station of the BRT corridor examined follows a stochastic passenger arrival and departure rate. The longer the headway. 2013) 3.

BRT vehicles circulate at a constant commercial speed during journeys among bus stops with a fixed route and narrowed by just one roundtrip per peak period. but their expected mean is known Passenger waiting time in a queue and the waiting line experienced by a particular passenger are treated as stochastic variables Passenger departure rate is greater than the passenger arrival rate and the waiting space available in BRT stations for passengers in the queue is infinite. Passenger departure rate also contrasts from one passenger to the succeeding and is autonomous of one another. Passenger inter-arrivals are described by a Poisson probability distribution and it is derived from an infinite or very large passenger population. both have equal probability distributions among every day of operation. the highest is the loading and unloading of passengers Feeder and express vehicle services throughout BRT network are not considered for determining passenger capacity indicators. Passenger arrival and departure behaviour on BRT stations are considered "stationary processes". Boarding and alighting times per bus stop are influenced by the spacing among BRT stations. in other words.Assumptions associated with Passenger Behaviour:        Passenger inter-arrivals are attended on a First In First Out (FIFO) ranking rule and every passenger arrival waits to be served irrespective of the length of the queue inside/outside the BRT station. Most of the pickups and drop-offs of passengers occur at the latter BRT stops of the northbound/southbound streams. Assumptions associated with Vehicle Operation:       BRT vehicles are served (in both bus stops and traffic lights) on a First In First Out (FIFO) ranking rule and every bus waits to be served irrespective of the length of the BRT berth/lane queue. Acceleration and deceleration rates associated with BRT vehicles are not considered for analysing service reliability indicators. 29 . however the passenger arrival rate does not change along the time. The longer the distance. Passenger inter-arrivals are independent of preceding arrivals.

biarticulated buses with more than 5 doors) cannot not be modified easily and timely without access to perform changes on the original source code of the object.Figure 3. this type of objects has only configured one ride station (one door) as part of its native functionality.g. bendy buses with between 3 and 4 doors. and run the simulation considering a double-decker bus fleet assuming that this type of vehicles has only one door for loading/unloading passengers through the BRT network. Thereafter.1. which is not compatible with real BRT bus fleet design (e. Therefore.5. Nonetheless. Layout of Bus Fleet Designs (Double Decker vs. taking into account the schedule constraints for developing this research project. Bendy Bus) in Simio It is necessary to mention that part of a traditional analysis based on the performance of BRT systems is to quantify the effects of the number of bus doors over service reliability of the network. all the outcomes obtained from the discrete-event simulation are compared with the key performance indicators regarded with articulated bus fleet design as part of the existing BRT system in Guayaquil. vehicles in Simio provide several advantages for modelling real transport systems. the selected workaround for performing the abovementioned analysis is to calibrate the model according to the current measurements derived from the data gathering developed. 30 . As it was described in earlier sections. Ecuador.

work.e. Among bus stops. Blueprint of Metrobastión BRT Corridor (Metrovia. from the southbound stream.1. Figure 4. considering its northbound and southbound streams. The majority of bus stops have turnstile-controlled off-board fare collection machines whereby each passenger should use its travel card for entering inside of the bus stop. All the stations have sliding doors with real-time and up-to-date static passenger information. trip generation begin with Terminal Bastion (TB) interchange and finish with Biblioteca Municipal (BM) terminal. a layout of the corridor as well as acronyms for each one of its bus stops and terminals is detailed in Figure 4. 2015) Each weather-protected bus station has an average length of 30 metres. Outside of bus stops. being classified each one by a specific type of zone (i. From the northbound stream. being the minimum and maximum journey time of 47 seconds and 3 minutes with 22 seconds respectively. there are safe 31 . shopping and interchange).1 Background In order perform a standard exploratory data analysis of the current performance of Metrobastion BRT trunk. there is a sub-stop with just one docking bay where buses can let passengers board and alight as well as dedicated passing lanes among bus stations. width of 6 metres and height of 5 metres with a maximum capacity of 200 passengers. there is an average travel time of 1 minute and 48 seconds. this BRT corridor has roughly 22 bus stations and 2 terminals.Chapter 4 Data Analysis and Model Calibration 4.1. Conversely. education.1. both streams have an average total travel time of roughly 38 minutes and 44 seconds with a maximum journey time of approximately 45 minutes and 5 seconds.1. Alongside each bus shelter. As it was explained in previous chapters. trip generation begin with Biblioteca Municipal (BM) terminal and end with Terminal Bastion (TB) terminal. leisure. Based on the observations and data gathering performed across this corridor.

Conversely.1.and signalized pedestrian crosswalks. each BRT vehicle has an average length of 18 m. some bus stations such as Las Monjas (MJ) and Ferroviaria (FV) contribute with just 2% of the whole 32 . In the same vein. giving as a result overcrowding conditions inside of the bus shelters and producing higher load factors towards the forthcoming bus stations. 4.1 Passenger Daily Demand during Peak Periods Figure 4. it can be viewed that the bus stops that contribute with higher passenger inter-arrival rates are Parque California (CL) and Universidad de Guayaquil (UG) due to their commercial and education activities with a high passenger production for this public transport system.e. enabling the integration to with other public transport systems (i. Wednesdays and Fridays because of at the beginning of the workweek in Guayaquil city there is a significant number of passengers on Mondays that prefer the usage of other transport modes (i.000 pphpd. reaching occasionally a maximum average demand of almost 5.2. Metrobastion Passenger Daily Demand during Peak Periods According to the information collected during 2 weeks at bus stops in peak periods.2 Data Analysis 4.e. taxi. During the AM Peak periods. considering northbound and southbound streams is detailed in Figure 4. conventional buses) with the aim of arriving timely to their destinations.. width and height of 3 metres with a maximum capacity of 160 passengers. especially on Sundays.1. during weekends the use of this transport system is low. In addition. the Metrobastión passenger daily demand (bounded to peak periods). taxi services and conventional buses). all vehicles operates at a minimum average commercial speed 20 km/h with 4 wide doors for speeding loading/unloading of passengers and platforms for reducing the gap among the bus berth and boarding station. It can be inferred that passenger density in this corridor is greater during Tuesdays. Conversely.2.2.

however. during the Inter-peak period. there is an slight growth of passenger among Centro de Arte (CA). During the studies it was observed that inside of these stations there is a greater degree of overcrowding. this situation is because of there is are significant levels of traffic congestion across these bus stops with desynchronized traffic lights close to crosswalks that not allow an easy accessibility to this mass transit system.2. Metrobastion Passenger Daily Boarding and Alighting Counts during Peak 33 . level of passenger demand drops dramatically among Universidad Catolica (UC) and Universidad de Guayaquil (UG) stations.2 Passenger Daily Boarding and Alighting Counts during Peak Periods Figure 4. In the same vein. On the other hand. causing some problems at the moment of boarding/alighting to/from vehicles approaching the bus berth. but the maximum average demand achieved is between 3. Once again. Colegio 28 de Mayo (VM) and Universidad Catolica (UC) stations due to leisure college and higher education activities increase between 05:00 PM and 08:00 PM nearby these zones.500 pphpd.2. it can be seen that now daily passenger demand is almost evenly spread among the bus stations located at the middle of the BRT corridor.2. Likewise. in consequence of the lack of trips in Ferroviaria (FV) bus stop (possibly as a result of being located in an isolated place surrounded by residential areas without the same benefits of accessibility to commercial zones that other bus stops have close to the CBD). it can be realised the same demand patterns in comparison with Interpeak periods achieving almost the same levels of passenger trips.passenger demand generated across the BRT corridor. 4. during PM Peak periods.000 and 3. Universidad de Guayaquil (UG) and Parque California are bus stops that produce higher passenger inter-arrival rates taking into account that between 12:00 PM and 02:00 PM most of the business and higher education activities are performed near to those stations.

it is necessary to highlight the attractiveness of the stations situated at the middle of both streams. reaching a maximum level of almost 5. 2011).e. and Inmaconsa (IN) bus stops). focusing on the bus stops that contribute implicitly in the spread among these rates. For instance. nonetheless this situation is dissimilar if boarding rates are assessed from stations nearby to the CBD. Moreover. alighting rates are greater than boarding rates in the majority of the bus stations which is normal in stops close to the end of the inbound and outbound streams of the BRT corridor. 34 .2. particularly pickups rates are higher than drop-offs rates owing to these stations produce roughly the 80% of the total passenger demand in both streams.e. during PM Peak periods it can be inferred that most of the trips are produced from the start bus stops of the southbound stream towards its latter bus stations which basically represents the traditional travel pattern of travelling from downtown to suburbs. In addition.000 passengers (i. There are also noteworthy gaps between loading and unloading rates in stops close to educative areas (i. during the Inter Peak period the boarding counts decrease around 50% in some bus stations located close to the start point of the northbound stream. Besides. it can observed that during AM Peak periods pickups rates are superior in stations close to interchanges.e. particularly in education areas and other zones close to the CBD. most of them enabling accessibility to education areas (e. Finally. Parque California (CL) bus stop) who are spread across the BRT network.g. boarding and alighting counts are dissimilar when the throughput is disaggregated by peak periods. Nonetheless. Plaza Victoria (PV) and Mercado Central (MC) bus shelters) and few of them providing mobility towards business areas near enough to the northbound stream (i. based on the results obtained from the Origin-Destination Matrix (ODM) per peak period produced by Metrovia Foundation in 2012 and projected to 2015 through the Furness method as a well-known trip distribution technique (Ortúzar et al. In opposition. Colegio 28 de Mayo (VM) and Vicente Rocafuerte (VR) bus stations). alighting counts remains steady from Gallegos Lara (GL) to Mapasingue (MP) bus stops with an exception in Dolores Sucre (DS) station.2 considering northbound and southbound streams and bounded to peak periods. Universidad de Guayaquil (UG)) as a consequence of university users that begin their activities in the morning should perform residential trips as part of their regular travel patterns.e. Gallegos Lara (GL). It can be evidenced that there is a high-level of loading and unloading of passengers in Parque California (CL) and Universidad de Guayaquil (UG) stations. Conversely. Metrobastion passenger daily boarding and alighting counts is explained in Figure 4.Periods Similarly. others related to commercial zones close to the CBD (i. because of close to those zones there are frequent users such as students and workers with regular schedules oriented to develop their daily scholastic and business trips. through the AM Peak chart is possible to perceive that alighting rates are uniformly distributed across the middle stations of the BRT corridor.

2. Then. the top right of the chart provides the breakdown of travel activity by each bus station during AM Peak periods. Figure 4. Plaza Victoria (PV) and Mercado Central (MC) bus stops). Moreover.g. Metrobastion Passenger Daily Travel Activity during Peak Periods Likewise. Cerros de Mapasingue (CM) and other stations close to the CBD (e. In addition. Additionally.3. being the Terminal Bastion (TB) its biggest contributor with 44% of the total passenger demand generated.2.2. being Federacion del Guayas (FG). It is apparent from this bar chart that approximately 35% of the trips are associated with educative destinations with a highest production of this journeys originated from Luz del Guayas (LG).4. from the bottom half of the chart about Inter Peak trips it can be interpreted that the proportion of passenger with labour destinations (31%) is almost the same in comparison with those whose primary purpose are educative activities (30%).3 Passenger Daily Travel Activity during Peak Periods Figure 4. almost 20% of the trips during early hours correspond to passengers demand oriented to zones near enough to the CBD. What is interesting in this data is that most of the trips developed in correspond roughly 31% to work activities (essentially moving towards the northbound stream) as well as 30% to education destinations which is reasonable owing to there are several colleges and university users across the network of this public transport system.3 presents the Metrobastion passenger travel patterns during peak periods based on the results obtained from the new OriginDestination Matrix (ODM) by peak period and some surveys developed inside BRT stations. over 28% of those who were surveyed indicated that their trips correspond to business activities. There are few leisure journeys related to these category (only 6% of the total passenger demand). From the pie chart above we can also see that the other two groups shopping (20%) and others activities (13%) are associated with events developed nearby the CBD. and Universidad de Guayaquil (UG) the top bus stops that produce this type of trips. notwithstanding the production of work trips correspond to 35 .

taxis. 4. albeit the proportion of passengers whose destination is oriented to shopping areas is evenly distributed across the bus stops in both streams. 36 . amid Fuerte Huancavilca (FH) and Juan Tanca Marengo (JT) stations as well as adjacent to Universidad de Guayaquil (UG) shelter. Finally. from the bottom right of the chart about PM Peak journeys. By the same token. there is an average travel time amidst bus stops of 1 minute and 48 seconds.2. bus stations that are close to the CBD presents higher journey times occasionally caused by mixed traffic conditions and some traffic jams derived by commercial and business activities during peak periods.those bus stops located close to the beginning of the northbound stream of the BRT corridor and trip generation associated with scholastic purposes is derived from the bus stops located in the middle of the northbound/southbound stream. in reference to the measurements gathered inside BRT articulated buses during 2 weeks in peak periods.4 Bus Daily Journey Time among BRT Stations Figure 4. It can also be seen that the highest in-vehicle times is found among the Colegio 28 de Mayo (VM) and Las Monjas (MJ) bus stations with an expected travel time of due to an expected distance of around 975 metres between those locations as well as the presence of 2 bridges whereby BRT vehicles should circulate in mixed traffic conditions with private cars. but with a highest trip generation rate in bus stops close to the CBD. Shopping and leisure activities have a low demand profile (19% and 6% respectively) during this stage. Correspondingly.4 presents a summary of the journey times among the 24 BRT bus stops. motorcycles and other motorised users. significant average journey times of at least 2 minutes can be observed at the beginning of the northbound stream close to the Parque California (CL) stop. bearing in mind that between 18:00 and 20:00 most of the passengers surveyed return to their residential zones. sometimes owing to the existence of at least 3 traffic lights giving more priority to other passenger car units rather than users of this mass transit system. excessive waiting times during the effective red cycle time of traffic lights alongside each bus station as well as urban gridlocks on junctions close to the BRT network. it can be inferred that the rate of passengers who have labour destinations (33%) is higher in contrast with those users with scholastic activities (29%) being this relationship produced by the return of people from their jobs located close the CBD and travelling through the southbound stream at this period.2. Interestingly. leisure and other type of trip attractions remain with lower rates across the network. Naturally. As can be viewed from the line chart. with a standard deviation of 43 seconds caused by the delays on loading and unloading of passengers.

Log Logistic and Log-normal stochastic distributions regularly used for modelling mathematically this service reliability measure in high-capacity public transport systems (Weifeng et al. Metrobastion Passenger Daily Travel Activity during Peak Periods Additionally. 2013) it can be concluded that the probability of reaching journey times less than 1 minute is approximately lower than 10%.Figure 4. Bearing in mind these results. In the same vein.4.2. a Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit comparison is developed for the observed journey times among BRT stations with the aim of determining the likelihood of achieving mean travel times up to 2 minutes as well as beyond this threshold. Finally. Based on the traditional Gamma. it can be inferred that the longest the distance among bus stops and the absence of bus priority measures. there is a high likelihood of almost 87% of getting average journey times between 1 minute and 2. there is a meaningful probability of roughly 30% of achieving average travel times beyond 2 minutes among BRT stations.. as can be viewed at the bottom of the abovementioned chart.5 minutes. the highest the likelihood of accomplishing 37 .

38 .average journey times of more than 2 minutes will be.5 provides an overview of the expected vehicle load factors and dwell time by peak periods and BRT streams. 4.07 respectively travelling during the PM Peak period. the chart illustrates some of the main characteristics of travel patterns during Inter Peak and PM Peak in this corridor. which is an outstanding issue when a faster and reliable BRT systems is required. particularly in bus stops such as Gallegos Lara (GL) and Cerros de Mapasingue (CM) with average load factors among 1. In the same way. resulting in less trips coming from the northbound stream towards the CBD. the problem mentioned before is fixed at the moment of unload passengers in next bus stops such as Universidad de Guayaquil (UG) and Colegio Vicente Rocafuerte (VR) due to their scholastic attractiveness. Figure 4.2.05 and 1.5 Bus Daily Load Factors and Dwell Time during Peak Periods Figure 4. essentially in bus stations such as Universidad Catolica (UC) and Colegio 28 de Mayo (VM) with average load factors between 1.2. studying boarding and alighting patterns by each one of the 4 bus doors. It can be observed that there are situations in which the expected capacity of 160 passengers per vehicle is exceeded. it can be concluded that travel patterns during AM Peak and Inter Peak periods let vehicles to operate at steady-state conditions in this stream of the BRT corridor. Metrobastion Bus Daily Factors and Dwell Time during Peak Periods In the same vein. this issue is overcome after unloading passengers massively approaching Federación del Guayas (FG) in which overloading conditions decrease by nearly 24% because of most of the scholastic users alight buses in that specific section of the corridor. Nevertheless. Notwithstanding. Similarly.5.07 respectively travelling through the northbound stream during the AM Peak period.03 and 1.2. Moreover. there are overcrowding conditions in the southbound stream of Metrobastion corridor. which are based on the data collected at the moment of being inside of the articulated buses.

6 Bus Daily Headway Time during Peak Periods Lastly. from the area chart described above it can be observed that dwelling times in the northbound stream are higher during AM Peak periods at BRT terminals because of there is an average waiting time of approximately 90 seconds defined by Metrovia Foundation as a transport policy for loading passengers until that BRT vehicles could achieve a passenger capacity of around 35% in both Terminal Bastion (TB) and Biblioteca Municipal (BM) interchanges. there are higher boarding and alighting times between 20 and 30 seconds in some bus stops such as Gallegos Lara (GL). including some congested stops (e. principally in Colegio 28 de Mayo (VM) bus stop due to the maximum passenger capacity is usually overwhelmed by an extreme amount of student users waiting outside of the station for using this transport mode for returning in most of the cases to their residential areas or other zones close to the CBD and bus interchanges. taking into account that between 12:00 PM and 02:00 PM most of the high schools and colleges generate a well-known demand of mass transit services. During this period the new bus stations with the maximum dwelling times are Centro de Arte (CA).2. Finally. 4.e. Contrariwise. Figure 4. analysing the southbound stream of Metrobastion corridor.g. However. generating also bus bunching conditions (until 3 bendy buses arriving almost simultaneously at these stations). at Inter Peak periods. As can be seen in the aforementioned chart. producing a range of dwelling times amidst 25 seconds and 30 seconds. Similar bus dwelling conditions are also observed during PM Peak periods across the northbound stream.5 shows the statistical analysis of average headway times measurements. because of during 06:00 PM and 08:00 PM these scholastic areas generate a massive demand of public transport systems in combination with complex urban gridlocks caused by the end of the work period. there are higher boarding rates in the aforementioned BRT terminals. Taking into account these results it can be determined that the higher the passenger density in bus stations. dwelling times can achieve a maximum lapse of 35 seconds. Colegio 28 de Mayo (VM) and Universidad de Guayaquil (UG). a 39 . Universidad de Guayaquil (UG) and Universidad Catolica (UC) bus stops) in which the sum of boarding. Colegio 28 de Mayo (VM) and Universidad de Guayaquil (UG)). Cerros de Mapasingue (CM).Additionally. which were basically collected inside of each bus shelter. Similarly. Centro de Arte (CA) and Universidad Catolica (UC) owing to there are higher passenger densities waiting for BRT vehicles that are sometimes delayed by unban gridlocks at the middle of the stream as well as by unsynchronized semaphores. the scenario is dissimilar during AM Peak periods whereby dwelling rates are below 20 seconds in the majority of bus stations. fundamentally owing to a significant passenger density on BRT stations close to the CBD and other located close to higher education institutions (i. during Inter Peak periods. alighting and doors open/close times surpass the threshold of 20 seconds established by Metrovia Foundation. it can be inferred a existence of higher dwelling rates during PM Peak periods.2. the longest the dwelling period will be. Conversely. observing the departure of the last articulated bus and the arrival of the next bendy bus to the docking bay. even excluding some other negative externalities caused by other motorised users close to the BRT network.

As can be identified at the beginning of the northbound stream. Colegio 28 de Mayo (VM)) which is basically located at the middle of the BRT corridor. What is interesting in this chart is the 90% of likelihood for obtaining average headway times amongst 60 and 120 seconds. Conversely. Likewise. which is higher if this result is contrasted with the probability of achieving average headway times superior to 120 seconds. during PM Peak periods the likelihood of reaching average headway times amid 60 and 120 seconds is now close to 90% and the probability for obtaining an average headway time upper to 120 seconds is almost 16%. 40 . considering that mixed traffic conditions close to labour and commercial areas as well as traffic lights cycle times could increase significantly its variability. whose result is 11%. proximate to the CBD. for Inter Peak periods. 67% for achieving averaged headway times between 60 and 120 minutes and around 24% for more than 2 minutes. The data correspond to the measurements obtained at the start points of the northbound and southbound streams such as Terminal Bastion (TB) and Biblioteca Municipal (BM) as well as in a most congested bus stop (i. in which the likelihood of obtaining average headway times below 90 seconds is around 26%. fitting the observed data to Log Logistic and Log-normal continuous distributions (recurrently adopted for modelling mathematically this service reliability metric in uninterrupted public transport facilities). during the AM Peak period most of the headway times are adjusted to a Log Logistic distribution.Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) goodness-of-fit disaggregated by peak period is developed based on the studies of Jang et al. the probability of getting average headway times below 1. which is coherent to the dwelling times obtained for this type of BRT terminal. theoretically controlled at the beginning of the northbound and southbound streams. (2011). It is necessary to mention that 120 seconds is defined by Metrovia Foundation as the maximum headway time across the BRT network.e.5 minutes is almost 47%.

during the Inter-Peak periods the likelihood of observing average headway times under 60 seconds is roughly 43% which is bigger in contrast with 35% as the probability of reaching an expected headway time upper than 120 seconds.6. all these results correspond to bus bunching effects that usually occurs at early hours in 5 stations situated before and after this congested bus station caused by excessive journey times due to traffic conditions in bridges close to these bus stops as well as a set of traffic lights that provide more priority to some junctions whereby motorised users drive. Finally. it can be inferred that during the AM Peak periods. Metrobastion Bus Headway Time during Peak Periods In the same way. This trivial betterment is owing to the efforts of the Metrovia Foundation to send more units for pickups and drop-offs of passengers around this area as well as passenger demand patterns close to this zone.2. the probability of observing average headway times below 60 seconds is roughly 33% which is almost the same with the probability of achieving an average headway time upper than 120 seconds which is approximately 35%. Based on a Log-normal. a probability analysis is developed for Colegio 28 de Mayo (VM) as one of the most overcrowded bus stations located at the centre of the BRT corridor. a similar analysis based on the stochastic distribution mentioned before is developed for Biblioteca Municipal (BM) terminal as the beginning of the southbound stream of this BRT corridor located nearby the commercial and 41 .Figure 4. Similarly. Similar results can be inferred for PM Peak periods with a small variation of 24% as the probability of observing the arrival of articulated buses with an average headway time more than 120 seconds.

as can be seen in Table 4. illustrates a set of passenger inter-arrival distributions acting as input parameters in the development of the mass transit system model. it is necessary to define previously some features in Simio associated with Source objects. specified using a random sample from a distribution Value Sequence Table Interarrival Time Random.1 Passenger Inter-Arrival Times Taking into account the passenger demand pattern by each bus terminal and stops and following the assumptions established for employing a M/M/1 queueing system for each bus station.3. during Inter Peak periods the likelihood of projected headway times below 60 seconds is circa 37% which is greater than 25% as the probability of achieving average headway times beyond 120 seconds.3.. Moreover. This trivial betterment is owing to the efforts of the Metrovia Foundation to send more units for loading and unloading of passengers around this area as well as higher passenger inter-arrival patterns close to the CBD. it can be observed that the headway variability is highly observed at the middle of the BRT corridor with remarkable differences at the beginning of the northbound and southbound streams of Metrobastion trunk.3.3. 42 . Set of Properties and Values for a Source Object in Simio Figure 4. Time interval between two successive arrivals.3 Model Calibration 4. whose properties are associated with each Source object used for each bus stop across the BRT network. 4. Finally.1.1.Pois son (Min) Number of entities that will be created by a Source object for each arrival event 1 Table 4. Each entity represents a class of passenger whose destination is fixed through sequence tables Mode used by the Source object to automatically generate a stream of entity arrivals in Simio. In conclusion. This set of properties should be defined according to the established values in order to run accurately the simulation of Metrobastion BRT corridor. analysing the outcomes during PM Peak periods. Particularly based on the probability density functions placed at the bottom of the graph above. it can be understood that during AM Peak periods the probability of observing average headway times under 60 seconds is roughly 43% which is bigger in contrast with 32% as the likelihood of reaching an estimated headway time upper than 120 seconds. it can be perceived a decrease by 15% in the likelihood for normal headway times beyond 120 seconds and a similar probability of 38% for achieving average headway times lower than 60 seconds. Property Entity Type Arrival Mode Interarri val Time Entities per Arrival Definition in Simio Type of entity created by the Source object.business areas of the CBD.1.

It is necessary to recap that each passenger is represented as an Entity object in this microscopic simulator.2 Passenger Origin-Destination Matrix Similarly.2.Figure 4. with the purpose to define the origin and destination patterns of each passenger in the proposed mass transit system model. each row of the matrix is basically converted into probabilities of departure that later are associated with each one of the Entity objects through sequence tables in Simio for creating the relationship among Entity and Sink objects as can be viewed in Figure 4.3.3.3. in order to spread appropriately the passenger demand across each bus stop of the BRT network. and its destination fixed to a specific Sink object. Each entity represents a class of passenger whose destination is fixed through sequence tables Mode used by the Source object to automatically generate a stream of entity arrivals in Simio. there are a set of properties to be defined beforehand in Simio as can be shown in Table 4. Set of Properties and Values for an Entity Object in Simio Bearing in mind the outcomes obtained from the Origin-Destination Matrix disaggregated by peak period and projected to 2015 travel patterns through the Furness Method.2. Value 2 m/sec Input@SinkN Table 4.3.2. Property Desired Speed Initial Sequenc e Definition in Simio Type of entity created by the Source object.3. 43 . Passenger Inter-Arrival Time Probability Distributions in Simio 4.1.

load time per entity) Load Time Unload Time Dwell Time Desired Speed Initial Node Routing Type Route Sequenc Time required for this Vehicle object to unload an entity (e.2.3. 21 km/h Transfer node Fixed Route Bus Sequence .3. Development of Passenger Origin-Destination Matrix (ODM) in Simio 4. Time required for this Vehicle object to load an entity (i.e. Route behaviour of this Vehicle object will follow through a fixed route sequence to transport riders to their specific locations Sequence table that defines the route sequence that this Vehicle object will loop 44 Value 90 pax. Exponential (2 sec) 15 sec. Exponential (2 sec) Random. with the aim of representing the operation of buses running across both streams of Metrobastion BRT corridor. defined as the ‘home location’.g.3 summarise a set of properties associated with a Vehicle object that must be defined previously in Simio.3.3 Bus Ride Capacity. Property Definition in Simio Ride Capacity Initial carrying capacity of a Vehicle object related to its dynamic and single ride station. Random. the unload time per entity) Minimum dwell time requirement for this Vehicle object when loading and unloading entities at a transfer/basic node Initial desired speed value for this Vehicle object during the movement of entities towards a transfer/basic node Initial node location of this Vehicle object at the beginning of the simulation run. Each o Vehicle object used is then declared through a list of transporters that will be associated to a set of Transfer Node objects specified in the rider sequence table aforementioned designed for passenger departure patterns.Figure 4. Transport and Travel Logic Table 4.

the simulation results to be discussed in the next chapter are based on the productivity of a double decker bus design as can be seen in Figure 4. indicating that each object of this type follows a work schedule. Indicates whether usage related events for this Vehicle object are to be automatically logged.3D Simulation of a BRT System in Simio based on a Double Decker Bus Fleet 4.3.3.. Offshift’ availability of this Vehicle object over time.3. Table 4.3. Set of Properties and Values for a Vehicle Object in Simio Finally.3.e Capacity Type Work Schedule Ranking Rule Log Resourc e Availability of this Vehicle object to perform tasks. Name of the schedule that defines the ‘On-shift.3. Figure 4. Work Schedule Schedule_Vehic le First In First Out (FIFO) True Table 4.3. considering the existing programming restrictions in Simio derived from the incorporation of more than one ride station acting as a single bus door on Vehicle objects (as part of the key characteristics of articulated buses operating in BRT systems). bus lanes linked to a BRT system can be defined as Path objects in Simio. whose outcomes are compared with those results analysed formerly associated with articulated or bendy buses running in the current operation of Metrobastion.4 presents the key factors to be considered for modelling BRT 45 .3 . Static ranking rule used to order requests waiting to seize this Vehicle object for a process task.4 Bus Lanes and Traffic Lights Cycle Timing Lastly.

4. Maximum desired speed at which an entity can travel along this Path object Reached End Process that occurs when an entity’s leading edge has reached the end of this path Drawn to Scale Value Bidirectional First in Entry Queue Forward Infinity (lane) 1 (bus berth) First In First Out (FIFO) False Distance (metres) False 60 km/h Traffic Light Add-On Process Table 4.4. The whole cycle time correspond to the current traffic lights deployed across the Metrobastion BRT network.sections among bus stops as well as for connecting Path objects performing the operation of docking bays along with Server objects acting as a real bus station or terminal with a fixed capacity established according to their physical dimensions.3. whose operation is based on an add-on process trigger which includes a set of steps in order to stop the movement of Vehicle objects during a red effective time as well as to allow the traffic of Vehicle objects according to a fixed effective green time. traffic lights can be modelled in Simio as Resource objects. as shown in Figure 4. Property Definition in Simio Path Type Traffic Direction Desired Direction Type of traffic movement to be adopted for this Path object and integrated with other of its category Rule employed to manage traffic entry onto this bidirectional Path object Initial desired direction of traffic movement for this bidirectional Path object Traveler Capacity Initial maximum number of traveling entities that may simultaneously occupy this link Entry Ranking Logical Length Allow Passing Speed Limit Rule used to rank entry onto this Path object among competing entities Specifies whether this Path drawn length in the Facility Window of Simio is the length to be used for the simulation logic Initial length to be employed for the simulation logic of competing entities Rule that allows or denies overtaking manoeuvres throughout this Path object. Set of Properties and Values for a Path Object in Simio Similarly.3. 46 .

1. it can be inferred that bus fleet operates above the capacity allowed in comparison with articulated buses.38. particularly in bus stations with higher demand patterns such as Universidad de Guayaquil (UG) reaching the highest load factor of 1. Figure 5. Modelling Traffic Lights and its association to Bus Lanes in Simio Chapter 5 Result Analysis and Discussion 5.3. as well as the foremost supply (vehicles) and demand (passenger) stochastic factors traditionally involved in a mass transit service. 47 .Figure 4. As can be seen in the chart related to expected load factors with double decker buses.40 followed by Colegio 28 de Mayo (VM) bus stop with a load factor of 1.1 summarises the outcomes achieved running a discrete-event simulation model developed in Simio. bus stations and lanes) associated with Metrobastion BRT network.4. The experiment is based on the throughput of a double decker bus fleet with just one bus door for boarding and alighting riders across the northbound and southbound streams of the corridor.1 Simulation Outcomes As a final point. These results essentially are caused by a higher demand pattern observed in those stations but now using just one ride station for pickups/drop-offs passengers across the BRT network. taking into account all the facilities (traffic lights. Results obtained during each experiment linked to arrival and departure patterns per peak period were merged in just one graph for each passenger density and service reliability indicator.

Through these data sets. which is dramatically higher in contrast with the real situation of Metrobastion BRT corridor. Esmeraldas (ES) achieves average passenger queuing times among 6. it can be inferred that bus stations at the middle of the northbound and southbound streams present significant levels of waiting time by around 4.1. particularly Parque California (CL).5 minutes. conversely.1. For instance. aggregated average travel time using double decker vehicles has increased the total journey time by roughly 15%. Moreover. the influence of traffic lights close to Universidad de Guayaquil (UG) bus stop upsurge total travel times in this area by almost 8%. considering during the simulation the variability of the cycle times associated with the 3 traffic lights placed before approaching this station from the northbound stream. it can be concluded that passenger capacity and bus service reliability is seriously affected it the operating company decide to change from bus-fleet design to double decker vehicles. Interestingly. the probability of reaching headway times superior to 6 minutes is around 12%. it can be observed that there is an upsurge of queueing rates in those bus stops proximate to the CBD.Figure 5. Simulation Outcomes about Double Decker Vehicle Productivity in Simio Similarly. Finally expected headway times are also adjusted to Log Logistic and Log-normal stochastic distributions with the purpose to determine the new threshold evidenced after the results derived from the discrete-event simulation.6 minutes. average waiting times where measured for each bus station. which is evident to determine that headway time volatility is higher in those stations close to commercial and educational zones. being the longest periods achieved in bus stations close to junctions in which mix traffic conditions are detected. Besides. 48 .1 and 6. It can be determined that the likelihood of observing headway times below 2 minutes is almost 8%.

5.2 Discussion

Double decker vehicles are not a feasible alternative for increasing passenger
capacity on BRT systems such as Metrovia in Guayaquil, Ecuador. Based on
the passenger demand heterogeneity existing across the 24 bus stations and
terminals, the former vehicle design need to increase his bus fleet by roughly
63% in order to achieve the same operational capacity provided by
articulated buses (9,779 pas/h with an expected bus frequency of 61 veh/h)
across the BRT network.

By the same token, load factors associated with the operation of articulated
buses are lower in comparison with double decker vehicles by a remarkable
relationship of 2:1. A lack of bus stations with more than 2 docking bays in
Metrobastion trunk makes difficult to decrease load factors using double
decker buses. There is no significant difference of load factors among peak
periods using the aforesaid vehicle fleet.

In regard to service reliability, it was demonstrated that double decker
vehicles increase travel times due to the higher boarding and alighting rates
spread in just one bus door. Journey time variability is higher owing to large
distance among BRT stations as well as mixed traffic conditions around the
corridor. There are excessive waiting times close to 6.6 minutes and more
odds to observe bus interval times upper to 7 minutes in contrast with
headway times below 2.0 minutes.

Volatility of boarding and alighting counts have plausible but unidentified
impacts on average headway variability, and correspondingly, on increasing
waiting queues in bus stations and interchanges close to scholastic and
labour zones. Along with urban gridlocks and rider demand diverseness,
dwelling times unevenness reduce the quality of service provided by Metrovia
BRT system as well as increase the likelihood of service unreliability across
Metrobastion trunk.

5.3 Conclusions

This research project extend our knowledge about the key factors affecting
passenger density and bus service reliability on BRT systems such as spacing
between bus stations, management of traffic lights, scarcity of bus priority
measures throughout a BRT corridor, number of sub-stops and docking bays
close to bus stations as well as number of doors which can speed up boarding
and alighting dynamic patterns.

Through the results achieved from a discrete-event simulation it can be
concluded that using vehicles with low rider capacity could impact
meaningfully BRT operations in terms of passenger density (load factors) and
service trustworthiness (travel times, waiting times and headway times).
Nonetheless, there are other negative externalities associated with mass

49

transit services that should be addressed in order to foster the use of public
transport systems in developing countries.

Real time headway control is crucial for the productivity of BRT corridors in
terms of waiting and journey time metrics. A lack of real time control add
pressure for the operating company (i.e. Metrovia Foundation) about whether
it is feasible to acquire more buses with a higher passenger capacity (i.e. biarticulated bus) which finally will affect the willingness-to-pay of its daily
users and provoke a decrease in its ridership due to the existence of other
cheaper motorised alternatives.

5.4 Recommendations
Taking into account the outcomes achieved during the development of this
dissertation, the following recommendations are provided to Metrovia Foundation
in order to enhance passenger density and bus service trustworthiness as their
core metrics for controlling the current operation of the 3 trunks of Metrovia BRT
system in Guayaquil, Ecuador:

In a study conducted by Hidalgo et.al (2013), it was shown that overcrowding
and overloading circumstances could be minimized increasing the number of
sub-stops, platforms and queuing capacity at bus stations, bettering the
operations reliability, deploying improved information technologies and
control strategies, enhancing traffic signal timing to tolerate greater
saturation levels and boosting frequency and bus fleet size.

In the same vein, express services are crucial to enhance passenger capacity.
Deploying this type of mobility alternatives in Metrobastion BRT corridor may
increase radically the quality of travel experience perceived from its regular
riders, decrease overcrowding issues in the most congested bus stations and
also reduce costs and journey times, skipping bus stops with low levels of
attractiveness.

Regarding service reliability issues, it is critical the deployment of bus priority
measures integrated with an urban traffic control system (i.e. SCOOT, SCATS)
with the aim to coordinate efficiently the set of traffic signals positioned
alongside bus stations as well as adjacent to some junctions where there are
mixed traffic conditions with motorised users and higher pedestrians flow
close to public spaces. A standardisation of the cycle times in most of the
semaphores is also required.

In relation to the maintenance of the infrastructure, equipment and other
facilities associated with the productivity of Metrovia BRT system, it is
suggested to have well-known assignment of duties and well-defined budgets
with the purpose to preserve orderly, carefully and floodlit BRT corridors, bus
shelters, vehicle fleet, and bus terminals as a foremost evidence of a
respectable level of service (LOS) and increased awareness of security and
safety from its regular users.

50

Simio as a microscopic simulation tool is a flexible and reliable software
package for modelling and emulating real mass transit services as well as
other type of public transport systems, that could enhance the decisionmaking process of city councils and other institutions who pursue a robust
analysis for the implementation, maintenance or optimization of BRT systems
in their districts, naturally under the definition of predictable and attainable
assumptions.

5.5 Future Research

Figure 5.5.1. Modelling of Bus Fleet Mixture Operations over Overloaded BRT Systems

It is noticeable the challenges related to the productivity of bendy and biarticulated vehicles across BRT corridors. A full-bodied research about the
influence of multiple bus doors over the passenger density and service reliability
of BRT systems is encouraged in order to determine the relationships among
supply and demand variables using an object-oriented approach for modelling
and simulating in a 2D-3D perspective view as is shown in Figure 5.5.1.
Furthermore, a far-reaching impact assessment associated with the
implementation of feeder and express services on BRT systems such as Metrovia
in Guayaquil and Metrobus-Q in Quito is also suggested, including the allowance
of overtaking manoeuvres on corridors with multiple bus lanes, sub-stops and
docking bays as well as the adoption of bus priority measures and intelligent
transport systems (ITS) in order to increase commercial speeds throughout mass
transit networks.
Lastly, as part of the state-of-the-art research topics, a pioneering study about
the adoption of Internet of Things (IoT) technologies combined with autonomous
BRT vehicles with the purpose to decrease negative externalities such as traffic
accidents, air pollution, fossil fuel dependence and urban gridlocks is vastly
fostered with the aim of support the achievement of sustainable development

51

Origin-Destination Matrix for AM Peak Period .goals (SDGs) established by UNDP in 2015 oriented to develop more greener cities across the world.Year 2015 52 . Appendix A.

Appendix B. Origin-Destination Matrix for Inter Peak Period .Year 2015 53 .

Year 2015 54 . Origin-Destination Matrix for PM Peak Period .Appendix C.

Add-On Process and Steps for Vehicle Movements in Simio 55 .Appendix D.

Appendix E. Template for Boarding and Alighting Counts inside BRT Vehicles during Peak Periods 56 .

Appendix F. Template for Passenger Demand Assessment for Peak Period and Week Day 57 .

Pictures of Metrovia Bus Rapid Transit System Terminals and Other Facilities 58 .Appendix G.

59 .

Nelli. 8. EMBARQ Center for Sustainable Transport. M.Reference List 1. EMBARQWRI.iadb. (2014) Design and Implementation of Discrete-event Simulation Framework for Modelling Bus Rapid Transit System. Chile 4. An Efficient and Competitive Mode of Public Transport.org/research/publication/ [Accessed 26-Sep-2015] 5. C. Batarce.. R.. R.M. 54 (0). Ortúzar. Raveau.. C. and Petrelli. Boncompte. (2012) A Microsimulation Model for BRT Systems Analysis. Gunawan. N.acea. Belgium. J.D. Available at: http://www. J. Brussels. and Raifman.. (2013) Social. (2013) Identification of Key Factors in the Design and Implementation of Bus Rapid Transit Systems in Developing Countries. Duduta. J. M. Filipe. InterAmerican Development Bank. L. Research in Transportation Economics. Duduta. 7. 2. and Macário.E..C. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology. European Automobile Manufaturer’s Association (ACEA). and Subedi.pdf [Accessed 21-Sep2015] 6. A. (2013) Bus Rapid Transit (BRT).. Carrigan. Muñoz. 14 (4). N.Social and Behavioral Sciences. (2013) A First Glimpse on Policy Packaging for Implementation of Bus Rapid Transit Projects. ALC-BRT. Available at: http://www. Washington DC. 3745. 150-157. (2014) Understanding Platform Overcrowding at Bus Rapid Transit Stations. V. A. M. King. Washington DC. Procedia . Velásquez. S. R. Environmental and Economic Impacts of Bus Rapid Transit. Ancora.be/uploads/publications/20th_SAG_HR.. USA.wricities. Cervero. F..org/handle/11319/6859 [Accessed 25-Sep-2015] 3. USA. Mojica. 60 . and Rios. Santiago. R. (2015) Evaluation of Passenger Comfort in Bus Rapid Transit Systems. 39 (1). P. Available at: https://publications. 12501259. and Galilea. J..

Volume 2: Implementation Guidelines. G.Influences on Patronage and Service Frequency. (2012) Exploring the Performance Limit of a Single Lane per Direction Bus Rapid Transit Systems. National Academies. 16(1)..Report 90 Bus Rapid Transit . L. Li. Research in Transport Economics.Levinson. A Synthesis of Transit Practice. Zimmerman. and Gutiérrez. (2015) Determining Optimal Frequency and Vehicle Capacity for Public Transport Routes: A Generalized Newsvendor Model. 39 (1). 12. Transportation Research Board. 48 (1). Hidalgo. Rutherford. Research in Transportation Economics. 139-142. D. Washington DC.9. Chagas. Clinger. R. Ecuador. Cracknell. M. R.Hidalgo.. Uses of Higher Capacity Buses in Transit Service... C. Research in Transportation Economics. and King. H. Social and Behavioral Sciences. and Hadas. 17. J... R. Vol I. Lleras.. 16. and Choi. Smith. Bus Rapid Transit . Medeiros.. USA. B.. (2014) Drivers of Bus Rapid Transit Systems . Pittsburgh. (2013) Bus Rapid Transit and Bus High Level Service Around the World: Explosive Growth. A.. and Lobo.Lindau. P. Transportation Research Board.Levinson.Report 90. D. Simio LLC. J. W.. 61 . and Hernández. and Mulley.. USA. H. Smith.Hidalgo. B. Smith. Transport Research Part B. A. R. S. D.. Washington DC. Research in Transport Economics. Colombia... De Castilho. (2008) Transit Cooperative Research Program Synthesis 75. 9-15 20. 19. World Bank Group. USA. J. Kim. and Soberman.Herbon. L. Large Positive Impacts and Many Issues Outstanding. Applications.. 18. USA. 240-247. (2014) Barriers to Planning and Implementing Bus Rapid Transit Systems. National Academies. Washington DC. D.. Analysis. (2011) Modelling of Headway Time Distribution on Suburban Arterial: Case Study from South Korea. J. Sturrock.Hensher. D. 8-13. Available at: http://go. USA. (2013) Methodology for Calculating Passenger Capacity in Bus Rapid Transit Systems: Application to the TransMilenio system in Bogotá. R. Transportation Research Board. and Herrera. L. R. E. Washington DC. S. and Graftieaux. 48 (1). S. USA. S. 159-165 11. (2003) Transit Cooperative Research Program . 10. Cracknell. Hemily. 85-99. N. J. P. 71(1). B. Y. J. Vol II. Washington DC. 14. 39 (1).Hidalgo. Zimmerman.worldbank.org/E3C10NWJJ0 [Accessed 11-Sep-2015] 13. D.Kelton.C. Z... and Soberman. (2003) Transit Cooperative Research Program . Changsoo. (2014) Simio and Simulation: Modelling.Volume 1: Case Studies in Bus Rapid Transit. National Academies. J. 15.Lindau. Clinger. (2007) A Critical Look at Major Bus Improvements in Latin America and Asia: Case Study of Metrovia Guayaquil. Methodological. Rutherford. Transport Research Board.Jang..

Niles. and Jerram.C. Research in Transportation Economics. (2006) Microscopic Simulation Approach to Capacity Analysis of Bus Rapid Transit Corridors. (2013) Micro Simulation based Performance Evaluation of Delhi Bus Rapid Transit Corridor. 2. G. Research in Transport Economics. T. International Journal of Engineering Research and Technology. J. and Velmurugan.. Journal of Transport Geography. 22. H. Available at http://www. Master Thesis. Chile. UK.Scorcia.com.Paget-Seekins.metroviagye. S. Vol. 48. H. Five Years After its Launch.C. 2-45.Metrovia.Social and Behavioral Sciences. 62 . D. (2013) Study of Bus Rapid Transit System in Respect to Growing Cities of India. 2006 BRT Special Edition. and Schoer. Exploring the Limits of a Popular and Rapidly Global Urban Transport System. 26.Mishra.Sorg.A.C. J. USA. and Khan.Ortúzar.. L. P.. Ltd. Mineta Transportation Institute. 25. 24.Muñoz. D. 10. 50.. and Ríos. Journal of Cleaner Production. 28. Transantiago. 31. (2010) Part I: Externalities and Economic Policies in Road Transport. A. and Teytelboym. and Hidalgo. Springer-Verlag. (2013) Lessons from the Spread of Bus Rapid Transit in Latin America. L. 27. West Sussex.Möller. (2013). California. Zürich. Modelling and Simulation. O. Baas. 34. L..ec/rutastroncales.Raj G.21. S. (2011) Bus Rapid Transit Systems and Beyond. 28 (1).R. R. Sekhar. Batarce. UK.Santos. Journal of Public Transportation. 825-834. (2015) Metrovia Bus Rapid Transit Corridor Routes. ETHIVH. No. Master Thesis. Ecuador. (2013) Bus Rapid Transit as Part of Enhanced Service Provision. Behrendt. C. Metrovia Foundation. Switzerland.. L. A. USA. Massachusetts. D.. (2015) Bus Rapid Transit as a Neoliberal Contradiction. 104 (0). M. Santiago. (2011) Modelling Transport.Siddique. 33. Guayaquil. Kumar. G. A. D. MIT.. 29. Hidalgo. Maconi. (2010) Design and Evaluation of Bus Rapid Transit and LimitedStop Services.Muñoz. Computational Foundations and Multimodal Applications. J. 32.aspx [Accessed 20-Ago-2015] 23. Shirvani. and Willumsen. 30. A. and Pradeep. Department of Transport Engineering and Logistics. John Willey & Sons. L. London. J. Procedia .. 115-120. Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile.. B. Hjelm. 82-90. (2010) From Buses to Bus Rapid Transit Systems: Case Studies of Incremental Bus Rapid Transit Projects in North America.Mejía-Dugand.. (2014) Introduction to Transportation Analysis. S.

K. J. Bunker. 36. 37-57. Tirachini. Axhausen. 63 .. J. K. (2005) SmartBRT: A Tool for Simulating. 13-22. Loopmans.. (2014) Bogota: TransMilenio’s Overcrowding Problem and a Professor's Solution. Urban Transit Systems and Technology. (2013). Institute of Transportation Studies.5 and PM10 in Mexico City. Zuk. C.Weifeng. Verachtert. A.. 37. University of California. Inc. and Lee. 96 (6).M. 44. J. Social and Behavioral Sciences. 45. 42 (35). International Association of Public Transport. 53.. and Gaohua. Australia 46. 114-120 42. World Bank Group.Tirachini. Available at: http://blogs. Cárdenas. 36-52. (2014) Models of Bus Boarding and Alighting Dynamics...35.org/news/brt_trends [Accessed 26-Sep-2015] 39. Available at: http://www. Cerón. USA. Hensher... Public Transport Trends. Research in Transportation Economics. L.... L. and Van Rompaey. (2013) Crowding in Public Transport Systems: Effects on Users. 447-460. Poesen.Venter. 339-350. G.A. (2008) The Impact of a Bus Rapid Transit System on Commuters' Exposure to Benzene. 38. 59 (0). Visualizing and Evaluating Bus Rapid Transit Systems. A. (2015) Who Could Benefit from a Bus Rapid Transit System in Cities from Developing Countries? A Case Study from Kampala. South Africa. H. RojasBracho. P. CO.. USA. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. USA: John Wiley & Sons. Design and Congestion. R.Widanapathiranage. V.Vuchic. J. L.VanderWerf. Kasaija.uitp. Uganda. (2013) The Lurch Towards Formalisation: Lessons from the Implementation of Bus Rapid Transit in Johannesburg. A. 39 (1). J.Sun. PM2.. Australasian Transport Research Forum 2013 Proceedings..Tirachini. M. A. G. and Scorcia H. A.Vermeiren.UITP (2015) Bus Rapid Transit: A World Panorama. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. 69 (0). Hoboken. J. (2013) A Microscopic Simulation Model to Estimate Bus Rapid Transit Station Bus Capacity. E. 47. Erath.Velez. Canon.. Journal of Transport Geography. R. 8194-8203. Research on Travel Time Distribution Characteristics of Expressways in Shanghai. Washington DC. and Fernández-Bremauntz. A.worldbank. and Rose.. New Jersey. B. L. D. (2014) The Economics and Engineering of Bus Stops: Spacing. D. Atmospheric Environment. (2007).. USA. Bhaskar.org/transport/ [Accessed 24-Sep-2015] 40.Wöhrnschimmel. D. NJ. 43. California. Berkeley. Martínez-Villa. Brisbane. A. Operation and Implications for the Estimation of Demand. M. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. 41. Zhengyu.P.

47. 64 . Wang.. New York. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society. 48.Wright. and Hook. Wang. L.Yang. (2007) Bus Rapid Transit Planning Guide (Third Edition). 2013. B. Institute for Transportation and Development Policy (ITDP). (2013) Performance of the Priority Control Strategies for Bus Rapid Transit: Comparative Study from Scenario Microsimulation Using VISSIM.. J. M. USA. W. W. 9. and Han.