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Population Division

Department of Economic and Social Affairs
United Nations Secretariat

Replacement Migration

United Nations

A/206 Population Division Department of Economic and Social Affairs United Nations Secretariat Replacement Migration: Is It a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations ? .ST/ESA/SER.

or of its authorities. as appropriate.01. E.NOTE The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country.A/206 UNITED NATIONS PUBLICATION Sales No. city or area.XIII. to territories or areas. The term “country” as used in the text of this publication also refers. or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The designations “developed” and “developing” countries and “more developed” and “less developed” regions are intended for statistical convenience and do not necessarily express a judgement about the stage reached by a particular country or area in the development process.19 ISBN 92-1-151362-6 Copyright © United Nations 2001 All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America . ST/ESA/SER.

In particular. including levels and trends. by national and international organizations. The Division undertakes regular studies on population levels and trends. research and training. spatial distribution of population between urban and rural areas and among cities.org/esa/population/publications. their causes and consequences. For further information. New York 10017. and socio-economic. iii .htm. The Population Division provides guidance to the General Assembly of the United Nations. in order to meet the needs of diverse audiences. the Population Division is concerned with the following substantive areas: patterns of mortality. and by the general public.un. please contact the office of Mr. The work of the Population Division is published in a variety of formats. spatial distribution and demographic indicators for all countries of the world. geographic and gender differentials. United Nations. the Economic and Social Council and the Commission on Population and Development on population and development issues. Joseph Chamie. These publications and materials are used by Governments. population estimates and projections. estimates and projections of population size. including electronically. Director.PREFACE The Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs at the United Nations Secretariat is responsible for providing the international community with upto-date and scientifically objective information on population and development. age and sex structure. and the relationship between socio-economic development and population change. population policies and the interrelationships between population and development. by research institutions and individuals engaged in social and economic planning. USA. population and development policies at the national and international levels. Population Division. Replacement Migration: Is it a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations ? may also be accessed on the Population Division World Wide Web site at www. fertility and international and internal migration.

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....... v 2 8 9 18 25 26 26 27 ................................................. by country or region..... 11 III........ Germany.................................................................. Italy ........................................................ RESULTS A............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... LITERATURE REVIEW ......................................................................................................................................... 1950 to 2050.................................................... OVERVIEW OF THE ISSUES ........................................................ 3......................................................................................... by country or region ....................... Potential support ratio (zero migration after 1995)............................................................................................ Country results ....... 4......... 6...................... 8............................................... TABLES No................................................................... Japan ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 1950 to 2050................................... Total population (zero migration after 1995)............. 1....... 3........ Countries whose population is expected to decline between 2000 and 2050: changes in the total population and in the proportion aged 65 years or older................................................ 1995-2050...................................... 21 35 1.................................................. United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland ..................... 1 Chapter I....................... 1950 to 2050.......................... Net number of migrants.......................................................................................................................................................... European Union ...................................... 9................................ Russian Federation................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 II..................................................................................................... iii Explanatory notes ........ 5.................. 15 15 19 IV.................................................................................. 97 References ......................................................CONTENTS Page Preface ............................... A... viii Executive summary .................... B....... 35 41 47 53 59 65 71 77 83 89 CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS ....... The impact of economic activity rates on support ratios ................................... 10............................ The six scenarios ......... Per cent distribution of net number of migrants by age and sex....... France..................................................... model pattern.... 2........... 8........................... 101 Selected bibliography.................................. B............. 6............................................................. Values of the potential support ratio (PSR) by projection variant..... Net number of migrants by country or region and scenario........................ 7......... Overview......... 2000-2050........... 2................................... 4.......................................................................... 5...................................................................................................................... 7. Republic of Korea ................... Total fertility rates....... Europe. THE APPROACH: METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS .............................................. United States of America ................. by scenario and country or region.................................................................. 105 V.................. by country or region................

. 1998 and 2050 .......... 27................. 5......... 16.......... 6.... 1990................................................................................ Age-sex pyramid of immigrants................ 19................................................... by country or region ..................... Potential support ratios and active support ratios................................ 7........ Population indicators for Japan by period for each scenario. 1.. and in 2050 by scenario and country or region ............. Total population in 1995 and in 2050..........................No.. Average annual net number of migrants between 2000 and 2050 to maintain size of working-age population........... Population indicators for the Republic of Korea by period for each scenario........ 11.................... 4................ Japan: age-sex structures by scenario for 2000................................ 12. 13.................................. by scenario and country or region .................................................... 10........................... 1995 and 2050................... Population of Germany in 2050................................................ 2025 and 2050 ............ model pattern.... scenario I ................. Population of Italy in 2050............ per million inhabitants in 2000.. Germany: age-sex structures by scenario for 2000........................................................... 2.................................. France: age-sex structures by scenario for 2000.. 23.............................. 27 28 28 29 29 30 30 31 32 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 105 108 FIGURES No.... 28.. 3...................................... and growth rates by scenario......... Per cent of post-1995 migrants and their descendants in total population in 2050...................................... 20................................. Per cent change in total population for selected countries and regions........... 24... 2025 and 2050........................ 25..................................... 9............................................................ indicating those who are post-1995 migrants and their descendants............................... Canada. 18......... Population of the member countries of the European Union...................................................................................................... indicating those who are post-1995 migrants and their descendants... Migrant stock (foreign-born population).......... by country or region ..... indicating those who are post-1995 migrants and their descendants.................................. 22................. United States of America and model pattern ................ 13... Per cent distribution of male immigrants by age in Australia.................... scenarios II and V.............. by scenario and country or region ...................... Population indicators for the United States of America by period for each scenario...... 11..................... Population indicators for Europe by period for each scenario ................ 10..... Average annual net number of migrants between 2000 and 2050 to maintain size of working-age population....... Population indicators for the Russian Federation by period for each scenario ........................ 17........ Changes in support ratios ......................... United States and model pattern......................... Net annual migration flows....................................... 2025 and 2050................. 1990 to 1998 .......... 8.................................................... 21... Canada.................... 9........... 14. 15.................................................................................................... Per cent distribution of female immigrants by age in Australia.... Population indicators for France by period for each scenario ................................... 26.............................................. Population indicators for Italy by period for each scenario.................................................................. Population of France in 2050.................... 14. Page Potential support ratio in 1995...................... 2025 and 2050..... 12........ Average annual net number of migrants between 2000 and 2050 by scenario for the European Union.... by scenario ........ by scenario ..................................... per million inhabitants in 2000.... vi 4 10 17 18 19 32 33 38 40 44 46 50 52 56 ............................................................................ Average annual net number of migrants between 2000 and 2050........................... Upper limit of working-age needed to obtain in 2050 the potential support ratio observed in 1995........................................... Italy: age-sex structures by scenario for 2000................... per million inhabitants in 2000....... Population indicators for the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland by period for each scenario .......... by scenario ......... Population indicators for the European Union by period for each scenario ............................................... Population indicators for Germany by period for each scenario ..................................................................................................................................... 2000-2050...............

..8............. replacement migration scenarios..... 1998 Revision........ European Union: age-sex structures by scenario for 2000........17....................... A...... indicating those who are post-1995 migrants and their descendants..3........................ A............................... by scenario...................... 1998 Revision........................... A..................................19................12.... replacement migration scenarios ................ A...................... A..... indicating those who are post-1995 migrants and their descendants...... 2025 and 2050 ... replacement migration scenarios ................ A....................................... A................................ Population of the Republic of Korea in 2050............. 1998 Revision................................................................................... 2025 and 2050 ................................. 1998 Revision ......................... 1998 Revision................................................ A.................... 21............................ 2025 and 2050 ......... A............................................ European Union.............7................................................ United States: age-sex structures by scenario for 2000...................................... 26............ Republic of Korea: age-sex structures by scenario for 2000.................................................... replacement migration scenarios ..... Population of Europe in 2050.. France............... United States of America..................................... 27.....................2..... replacement migration scenarios ............. indicating those who are post-1995 migrants and their descendants.......................... 23..............................5....................................................... Republic of Korea..............13........ 1998 Revision..................... Japan. vii 112 114 116 118 120 122 124 126 128 130 132 134 136 138 140 142 144 146 148 150 . European Union......................... replacement migration scenarios.............................. 15..... by scenario ....................... Italy.... Page Population of Japan in 2050................. Germany................................. by scenario. Population of the United Kingdom in 2050.................................. Germany.. A............ A...............1....................... 58 62 64 68 70 74 76 80 82 86 88 93 94 ANNEX TABLES No............ by scenario .... indicating those who are post-1995 migrants and their descendants...... 17............................................... Russian Federation.................................................... 18.................6................ by scenario .................................................................................................. A.18............................... A... 1998 Revision........................... indicating those who are post-1995 migrants and their descendants........................................................... indicating those who are post-1995 migrants and their descendants... A............................................................... Population of the European Union in 2050............. replacement migration scenarios............................ replacement migration scenarios ................ 20.... 1998 Revision ................. by scenario ............................................... 2025 and 2050........... 1998 Revision ..11..................14....... A......... 2025 and 2050 .............. United Kingdom: age-sex structures by scenario for 2000................ 22........................................................ Europe...16.. Japan.................... United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.................. 16............. Europe: age-sex structures by scenario for 2000............. indicating those who are post-1995 migrants and their descendants... A......9....................................... Population of the United States in 2050................... 19.......... United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland............................. 24................. 2025 and 2050 .............................. replacement migration scenarios...................................No.... France............... Italy...10........ A............................15............. replacement migration scenarios .................................................................4........... 1998 Revision ......... Population of the Russian Federation in 2050.......... Russian Federation............................................ A.......... A. by scenario................................................. 25......... Republic of Korea.... A................................................................................. United States of America.......................20......... Europe..................................... Russian Federation: age-sex structures by scenario for 2000..

as follows: Two dots (. In addition. Czech Republic. France. Years given refer to 1 July. Spain. Europe. Slovakia. United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Luxembourg. Bosnia and Herzegovina. Poland. Liechtenstein. Switzerland. Ukraine. Greece. Germany. Greece. to either of two general groups: more developed and less developed regions. Belarus. for statistical convenience. Lithuania. The less developed regions include all regions of Africa. Ireland. Portugal. Luxembourg. Croatia. Isle of Man.) is used to indicate decimals. Latin America and the Caribbean. from 1 July of the beginning year to 1 July of the end year. Romania. Hungary. Netherlands. San Marino. Austria. Slovenia. A full stop (. The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. Asia. Gibraltar. Finland. Monaco. Europe comprises 47 countries and areas: Albania. Europe and Australia/New Zealand. A hyphen (-) indicates that the item is not applicable. Various symbols have been used in the tables throughout this report. Micronesia and Polynesia. Holy See. An em dash (—) indicates that the population is less than 500 persons.Explanatory notes Symbols of United Nations documents are composed of capital letters combined with figures. Norway. Sweden. Netherlands. Republic of Moldova. and Yugoslavia. Northern America and Oceania. France. Countries and areas are grouped geographically into six major areas: Africa. Belgium. Spain. Use of a hyphen (-) between years. Finland. Estonia. Latvia. signifies the full period involved. Sweden and United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. 1995-2000. A minus sign (-) before a figure indicates a decrease. Belgium. Melanesia. Italy. Asia (excluding Japan). The more developed regions comprise Northern America.. Japan. Russian Federation. the regions are classified as belonging. Italy. Those major areas are further divided geographically into 21 regions. Latin America and the Caribbean. The following abbreviations are used in the present report: ASR EC EU PSR TFR active support ratio European Community European Union potential support ratio total fertility rate Details and percentages in tables do not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. for example. viii . Andorra. Bulgaria. Channel Islands. Portugal. Ireland. Germany. Denmark. The European Union comprises 15 countries: Austria. Iceland. Faeroe Islands. Denmark.) indicate that data are not available or are not separately reported. Malta.