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JANUARY 16, 2013 | MILFORD, MA

Update on Solar Photovoltaics and


Other Distributed Generation
Planning Advisory Committee

Jon Black
ENGINEER

Introduction
Penetrations of distributed generation (DG) continue to grow in the
region, and at faster rates
States have policies specifically targeting various forms of DG

Refer to Section 7.6.6 of RSP12 (live link) for policy discussion and background

DG are typically state-jurisdictional projects that are interconnected


according to standards that differ from FERC-jurisdictional projects
States have predominantly based their respective requirements on
IEEE1547TM* and UL1751**

Most of the regions DG will continue to be solar photovoltaics (PV),


which are intermittent, weather-driven resources
Currently more than 225MW of operational solar PV in the region
RSP12 included an estimate that 800MW of solar PV would be installed in
New England by the end of 2021. For background discussion, refer to:
Section 7.6.6.1 of RSP12 (live link)
May 16, 2012 PAC presentation, Solar Photovoltaics in New England (live link)

Due to PVs unique operating characteristics and its anticipated growth


over the next decade, it is currently at the center of the DG discussion in
the region

Notes: *IEEE 1547TM - Standard for Interconnecting Distributed Resources with Electric Power Systems
** UL 1741 Inverters, Converters, Controllers and Interconnection System Equipment for Use With Distributed Energy Resources
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Primary Factors Driving Growth of PV


Continued decrease in installed cost*:

Installed PV costs decreased between 11%-14% in 2011 relative to 2010


Data from 2012 projects indicate further cost decreases

Federal incentives:

Section 1603 Treasury Grant


Investment Tax Credit (ITC)
Bonus depreciation allowances
Section 179 expensing

State Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) or related goals:

Class I RPS Solar Carve-out and associated Solar Renewable Energy


Credits, or SRECs (MA)
Class II RPS in NH
Goals/funding for Distributed Generation (significant in VT, CT, RI)
Standard Offer Program in VT and associated Feed-in Tariff (FIT)
Zero Emission Class I REC Program in CT
Distributed Generation Standards Contracts in RI

Net metering (all New England states)

Source: *Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Tracking the Sun V, November 2012.
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New Englands PV Growth Through 2011


Approximately 123 MW installed by the end of 2011:
More than 50 MW installed in 2011
Installed PV Capacity (MWDC )

State
CT
MA
ME
NH
RI
VT
Total Regional PV (MW)

Installed during
2010

Installed during
2011

Cumulative by end
of 2011

4.8

4.5

20.4

36.4

0.6

1.3

1.0

0.6

1.2

7.8

31.1
74.6
1.1
3.1
1.2
11.7

27.7

50.9

122.8

Source: Larry Sherwood, U.S. Solar Market Trends 2011 (IREC, August 2012), available at: http://www.irecusa.org/wpcontent/uploads/IRECSolarMarketTrends-2012-Web-8-28-12.pdf
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PV Growth in Massachusetts
Fastest-growing PV sector in New England
MA SREC market is driving statewide PV growth
As of December 2012, a total of 140.7 MW of PV qualified for
carve-out was operational
Another 17 MW qualified for SRECs but not yet operational
Approx. 20-30 MW of PV installed in MA that is not part of SREC program

At current installation rates, MA will fulfill its 400 MW goal in


2015

PV Growth in Massachusetts
Solar Carve-Out Qualified Units in Operation
A total of 140.7 MW of qualified PV Units were in operation as of December 2012

Annual PV Installations

Project Size Distribution

MW, dc nameplate capacity

MW, dc nameplate capacity

0.44 0.12
12.04
2012

34.3

Project > 1 MW

2011

38.91
88.97

2010
2009
2008

71.9

0.5 MW > Project < 1 MW


0.1 MW > Project < 0.5 MW

34.6

Project < 0.1 MW

16.9

Note: 2012 installations do not include projects completed in December; does not include approximately 2030 MW of PV installed in MA, but not part of SREC program
Source: MA DOERs RPS Solar Carve-Out Qualified Units, updated 12/12/12
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CTs DG Programs
Public Act 11-80 anticipated to stimulate significant growth of instate DG by 2022*
PA 11-80 Programs

Quantity

Payments

Residential Solar PV (Sec. 106)

Min. of 30 MW

About $150 million

ZREC Class I Projects (Sec. 107)

About 250 MW

About $720 million

LREC Class I Projects (Sec. 110)

About 25 MW

About $300 million

Other Class I Projects

Up to 30 MW

TBD

About 335 MW

> $1.2 billion

Total PA 11-80 Projects

Notes: ZREC = zero emission renewable energy certificate (REC); LREC = low emission REC

ZREC and LREC Program results**

First solicitation results for Large and Medium-sized projects

CL&P - 21MW of ZREC projects (all PV), 4MW LREC projects


UI 5.05MW of ZREC projects (all PV), 1.16MW of LREC projects

Small LREC/ZREC projects solicitation not yet made

Sources: * Connecticuts 2012 Integrated Resource Plan, Appendix D,


**The LREC/ZREC Program and RFP Results, Presentations to Electric Restructuring Roundtable on DG in New England, October 2012
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Vermont SPEED Standard Offer Projects


State goal of 127.5 MW of DG by 2022
Max project size of 2.2MW
Eligible technologies include solar PV, wind,
biomass, farm methane, landfill methane,
hydro
Technology
Solar PV
Wind
Biomass
Farm Methane
Landfill Methane
Hydro
Totals

Source: http://vermontspeed.com/maps/

Capacity (MW) of Standard Offer Projects


On-line*
Accepted* Waiting List**
11.92
0
1.2
4.31
0.56
0.96
18.95

26.48
0
0
1.16
0
3.98
31.62

116.3
4.5
2.13
0
0
0.36
123.29

Notes: * Based on applications accepted for processing, 10/19/09 12/26/12


**Based on applications not yet processed, 10/19/09 1/4/13
Most recent data available at: http://vermontspeed.com/standard-offer-program/
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PV Growth in Vermont
VT County
Grand Isle
Franklin
Orleans
Essex
Chittenden
Lamoille
Caledonia
Addison
Washington
Orange
Rutland
Windsor
Bennington
Windham
Total Statewide PV Capacity (kW)

Installed PV Capacity (kW)


As of 3/18/2012 As of 1/3/2012
38.3
227.8
128.9
2.4
4,362.0
272.3
162.3
1,657.5
1,543.8
462.9
204.1
1,024.4
156.5
885.1

115.5
302.5
277.9
41.2
9,055.7
529.7
298.3
2,319.8
2,382.7
2,489.8
598.2
3,723.3
2,403.2
1,791.3

11,128.3

26,329.0

Sources: Vermont Energy Atlas and VT SPEED Program (Standard Offer


Projects)

Source: digital-topo-maps.com
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Rhode Islands Distributed Generation Standard


Contracts (DGSC)*
DGSC program will support the development of a total of 40 MW of
renewables in its four-year roll-out
A total of 16.17 MW of projects awarded in 2011-2012
At least 10 MW of contracts both 2013 and 2014 (to reach total 40 MW
goal)

To date, a total of 16.17 MW of DG projects were awarded


contracts:
14.67 MW of solar PV (15 projects)
1.5 MW of wind (1 project)

Changes have been made to the technology allocations for


prospective DGSC contracts awarded in 2013:

Solar PV: Adjusted target class sizes, reduced ceiling prices, and adjusted
overall solar PV targets
PVs share of DGSC contracts will likely decrease in 2013

Wind: Increased ceiling price and added smaller class sizes


Anaerobic digestion added to eligible technologies
Source: *RIs Office of Energy Resources, Report and Recommendations Regarding Classes and Ceiling Prices, November 29, 2012
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Growth of PV Maine and New Hampshire


New Hampshire

NHs Class II RPS requires 0.3% of state load energy met by PV


by 2015

Creates a solar REC market that can be satisfied with regional PV


As of October 2012: A total of 9.2 MW of PV eligible, of which 5.2 MW
in MA (57%), 2.3 MW in CT (25%), 1.2 MW in NH (13%), 0.4 MW in RI
(4%), and 0.1 MW in ME (1%)
Meeting RPS will require about 25 MW of total nameplate PV in 2015
Bill SB218 passed in 2012 lowered Alternative Compliance Payment
(ACP) for Class II RPS from $150 to $55

Maine

While some PV development has occurred in Maine, there are


currently no solar-specific state goals or funding that targets
growth of PV.
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PV Impacts on System Operation


Existing amounts of PV have not produced noticeable effects on
system operations PV is still perceived as noise on the system
At what penetration(s) will this no longer be the case?

PV increases uncertainty in net load (i.e., load minus PV)

This is the case for both the day-ahead and intra-day operational forecasts

PV changes patterns of and increases overall net load variability

Studies of high penetration solar PV scenarios have demonstrated that PV


dominates net load variability extreme events; however, much of this
variability is predictable
Two sources of PV variability
1. Clear-sky variability is the result of the suns diurnal cycle, irrespective of
cloud cover

This variability is largely predictable

This variability is only semi-predictable

2. Cloud-driven variability is the result of cloud density and movement

What will be the incremental impact of increased PV penetrations


on reserve/regulation requirements?
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Potential Reliability Impacts of PV


State jurisdictional interconnection standards for DG are
predominantly modeled after IEEE Standard 1547TM
IEEE 1547TM originally developed with the assumption that DG would
not reach significant levels w/r/t the Bulk Electric System

Unlike FERC 661A, IEEE 1547TM is a dont ride through


requirement
No frequency or voltage ride through requirements, no active voltage
control
What are the potential risks to reliability as penetrations of embedded DG
increase?

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PV in ISOs Energy Market


Based on ISOs January 2013 Seasonal Claimed Capability
report:
179 PV assets registered in ISOs energy market

172 in MA, 2 in NH, and 5 in RI (no assets registered in CT, ME, or VT)
19 new PV assets added in December

Based on recent aggregate PV energy output, approximately


1/3 of PV energy produced in New England is registered in
ISOs energy market.
More data will be needed for ISOs PV-related integration
activities (e.g., solar forecast development)

ISO will likely need time series production and other related data from
many additional projects, especially from parts of the region
underrepresented in current energy market data

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PV and Long-Term System Planning


Currently, PV is considered in long-term planning in the following
ways:

Capacity Supply Obligations associated with PV projects that clear in the


Forward Capacity Market (FCM) can satisfy the Installed Capacity
Requirement (ICR)
Energy production and/or load reductions from operating PV assets are
embedded in the historic loads used to develop ISOs 10-year load forecast
used in the ICR calculation on the load side

Are there better methods of integrating growing solar penetrations


into long-term system planning in the region?
States incentivizing PV (and other DG) want assurance that their
investments translate into observable benefits to the system

ISO is alert to this issue and will be working with stakeholders and
states toward its resolution
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DoEs Eastern Renewable Generation


Integration Study (ERGIS)
ISO is serving on studys Technical Review Committee
ERGIS will follow up on findings of Eastern Wind Integration
and Transmission Study (EWITS)
Objective is to test higher variable generation penetration levels,
including PV
Study scenarios are currently under development

Work products will include a solar dataset covering the


Eastern Interconnection for year 2006
5-minute and 4-hour ahead forecast datasets will likely be included
Anticipated to be completed and made public by 3rd quarter of 2013
Dataset will likely be useful for future ISO planning studies

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Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting


US DOE Funding Opportunity Announcement
ISO is participating in a DoE funded, three year project led by
IBM to improve the state of the science of solar forecasting

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Conclusions
The region is witnessing significant growth in DG, especially solar PV
Currently estimate that approximately 1/3 of PV installed in region
is registered in ISOs energy market
ISO will need more data to conduct PV-related integration activities

ISO will be working with stakeholders and states toward improving


methods of factoring growing solar penetrations into long-term
planning
Existing amounts of PV have not produced noticeable effects on
system operations, but larger penetrations:
May result in need for increased reserves and regulation
Will eventually require improved operational forecasting techniques

Due to state-jurisdictional interconnection requirements, growing


penetrations of DG could impact system reliability
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