Weekly Review of India Stock Market

Nifty turns volatile; clear picture to emerge soon!

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Over the last 6 trading sessions, the Nifty witnessed lot of volatility (4 days on the upper side due to profit booking and 1 day on the lower side due to pull back) and confusion prevailed as to what the next move could be. In the last week’s review we discussed about the formation of a bullish engulfing pattern at the top of an uptrend. I had mentioned that the Japanese view it as “double lovers’ suicide’ and profit booking may start. This was exactly the case, as shown in the daily chart below.

http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/Nifty_Daily_140907. jpg While the bullish engulfing pattern formed at support levels in a downtrend is considered as a reversal sign, the one formed at the top

of an uptrend is an indication that the market may witness profit booking or a possible downtrend may start. In the above chart, last Friday, just after the formation of bullish engulfing pattern, a red candle with a long upper shadow appeared. The same was the case this Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday, indicating the sessions encountered sell off. On Monday, the formation of long lower shadow means that the attempt by the bears to push the index down was negated by the bulls. On Thursday Nifty gained 32.10 points, the only session bulls were in total control without much volatility either on upper or lower side. The following table gives the sessionwise gain/loss for Nifty. Date 10-Sep-07 11-Sep-07 12-Sep-07 13-Sep-07 14-Sep-07 Points Gained -1.65 -10.80 -0.20 32.10 -10.95 % Gain / Loss -0.04 -0.24 0.00 0.71 -0.24

Nifty gained 8.50 points (0.19%) for the week. However, it still did not close above 4530, an important resistance level. It just missed it by 1 point on Thursday when it closed at 4529.

http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/Nifty_Intra_140907. jpg

The intraday chart of Nifty (Source: NSE web site, www.nseindia.com) shows the profit booking that started after the middle of the trading session. It also tells us about the inability of the bulls to maintain the index at higher levels right through the day. However, there are no reversal signs yet in both weekly and monthly charts of Nifty and we maintain our bullish view of medium and long term. In the Nifty futures contract though, there is a bullish engulfing pattern at the top of the uptrend; but the volatility could not be found. Also, no reversal sign can be seen in this chart too.

http://groups.google.com/group/theindiastreet/web/NF_Sep_140907.jpg Forecast for next week: Last week I had mentioned that we got a clue but no confirmation. Now that the clue has been proved correct, we should expect a reversal signal and correction this week. This correction, when happens, will be good for the index. It is worth mentioning here that, after the last month’s correction, Nifty has retraced about 90% from its low at 4002. Is there any possibility that index may breakout on the upper side without getting corrected? Though one may not rule out this straightaway, the chances are negligible, as seen from the volatility and profit booking at higher levels. Advance / Decline Ratio: Date 10-Sep-07 Adv. 612 Dec. 515 Unch. 26

11-Sep-07 12-Sep-07 13-Sep-07 14-Sep-07

492 589 653 314

630 537 474 824

29 27 24 15

Top Gainers / Losers among Index stocks:

Scrip SUZLON RPL STER DABUR IPCL

% Gain

Scrip

% Loss 9.71 5.85 5.00 4.71 4.24

7.01 HCLTECH 6.47 WIPRO 5.40 TCS 5.06 CIPLA 4.78 SATYAMCOMP

Top Gainers / Losers in overall market: Scrip TIDEWATER MARKSANS NAUKRI AFTEK NOVAPETRO % Gain Scrip % Loss 19.87 16.71 15.05 13.73 12.92

55.90 DCHL 40.13 DECOLIGHT 38.48 SELMCL 34.94 ROLTA 33.24 SUBEX

Sundaramurthy Vadivelu Suggested Reading • Candlestick Patterns in Indian stock markets • READ THIS if you want to learn how to invest in India’s stock markets • India Stock Market – Monthly Review for August 2007 • Weekly Review of India Stock Market • India's Futures & Options Market : An outlook

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