Commodities Monthly

April 9, 2010

Nickel higher on demand – Gold steady on fear

= N

General Forecast: 0-3 M  , 4-6 M  , 7-12 M  UBS Bloomberg CMCI Sector Indices
 The UBS Bloomberg CMCI Price Index advanced a marginal (price indices, weekly closing, January 2009 = 100)=
0.2% in March, but differences between sectors were large 190 Industrial Metals

 180 Precious Metals

Industrial metals was the strongest sector (+8.8%) and 170 Energy
agriculturals the weakest (-9.2%) 160
Agriculture

 The global economic recovery continued, supporting demand for 150

commodities 140
130
 A potential Chinese monetary tightening is an overhanging threat 120
to the commodity market 110
Energy Forecast: 0-3 M  , 4-6 M  , 7-12 M  100
90
 Brent crude traded around $80/b in March, i.e. in the upper part of 80
OPEC’s desired $70-80/b range 70

jan-09

jan-10
feb-09
mar-09
apr-09
maj-09
jun-09
jul-09
aug-09
sep-09
okt-09
nov-09

apr-10
dec-09

feb-10
mar-10
Brent crude broke above $85/b in early April, OPEC production
likely to be increased if this price level is maintained
 The 156:th ordinary OPEC meeting was concluded without quota Performance overview
changes or other surprises (MSCI World, UBS Bloomberg CMCI Price Indices)
 There is a temporary upside risk in the oil market heading into the 10
YTD (%) MoM (%)
US driving season as large quantities of crude oil are tied up in 8
6
financial deals 4
2
Industrial Metals Forecast: 0-3 M  , 4-6 M  , 7-12 M  0
-2
 Very bullish sector sentiment in March, falling LME stocks and -4
-6
high cancelled warrants -8
 Nickel up 18.3% on strong stainless steel production -10
-12
 The start of this year’s iron ore price negotiations have resulted in -14
-16
Equities

Commodities

Energy

Precious
Industrial

Agriculture
doubled prices and quarterly contracts replacing yearly contracts metals
metals

Precious Metals Forecast: 0-3 M  , 4-6 M  , 7-12 M 

 Continued strength in the industrial precious metals (silver,
platinum, palladium) on industrial recovery and investor demand Winners & Losers last month
 In dollar terms, gold moved sideways in March, torn between (closing prices, %)=
fluctuating European sovereign debt fear and dollar strength 30
 Gold closed at a new record level in euro terms at the beginning 25
20
of the April, €863.35/ozt 15
10
 Jewellery demand is picking up as the first Indian wedding 5
0
-5
season of the year starts -10
-15
Agriculture Forecast: 0-3 M  , 4-6 M  , 7-12 M  -20
-25
 Corn, wheat and soybeans traded lower in March on a stream of -30
-35 c
Emission Rights (EUA)

Zinc

bearish USDA reports, good South American crop prospects and

Corn

Gold

Tin
Cotton

Aluminium
Brent
Soybeans

Cocoa

US Gasoline
Sugar

Silver

Copper
Platinum
WTI

Nickel
Power, Nordic
US Natural Gas

Lead

US Heating Oil

Palladium
Wheat

Coffe, Arabica
Power, Continental

Steel, Mediterranean

improving Midwest planting conditions

 Sugar kept falling heavily as crop prospects kept improving and
buyers awaited lower prices
 Several of the soft commodities bottomed out in March and
embarked on a new uptrend =
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=
 Upside risk in conjunction with US planting season remains but
conditions are improving
=
Arrows indicate the expected direction of the price change during the specific period.

Commodity Research: Bjarne Schieldrop (Head) bjarne.schieldrop@seb.no +47 92 48 92 30, Filip Petersson filip.petersson@seb.se +46 8 506 230 47
SEB Commodity Research
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US Dollar Index
(weekly closing)=
93
91
89
87
85
83
81
79
77
75
71
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=
=
SEB Commodity Research
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Q
SEB Commodity Research

CRUDE OIL
=

Crude oil price US crude oil stocks

(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing)= (DOE, mb, weekly data)=
150 380
NYMEX WTI 2005-2009 avg.
140
ICE Brent 370 2009
130
2010
120
110 360
100 350
90
80 340
70
60 330
50
40 320
30
20 310
10
300
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
j f m a m j j a s o n d
=
OIL PRODUCTS
=

Gasoline and heating oil prices Gasoline and distillate stocks

(NYMEX, ¢/gal, front month, weekly closing)= (DOE, mb, weekly data)=
450 NYMEX Gasoline 240
NYMEX Heating oil 230
400
220
350 210
200 Gasoline 2005-2009 avg.
300 190 Gasoline 2010

250 180 Distillate fuel oil 2004-2008 avg.

170 Distillate fuel oil 2010
200 160
150 150
140
100 130
120
50
110
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

j f m a m j j a s o n d
= =
POWER
=

Nordic power price Continental power price

(Nord Pool, €/MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)= (EEX, €/MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)=
80 95
75 90
85
70
80
65 75
60 70
55 65
60
50
55
45 50
40 45
35 40
35
30 30
25 25
20 20
2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=
= =
=
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=

R
SEB Commodity Research

CO2 NATURAL GAS

=

EUA price US natural gas prices

(ECX ICE, €/t, Dec. 10, weekly closing) (NYMEX, $/MMBtu, front month, weekly closing)=
35 15
14
13
30
12
11
25 10
9
8
20
7
6
15 5
4
3
10
2
1
5 0
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
=
= =
FUTURES CURVES
=

WTI Brent
(NYMEX, $/b)= (ICE, $/b)=
88 88
87 87
86
86
85
85 84
84 83
83 82 10-02-26
10-02-26
81
82 10-03-24
10-03-24
80 10-03-31
81 10-03-31
79
80 78
79 77
aug-10
nov-10
feb-11

aug-11
nov-11
feb-12

aug-12
nov-12
feb-13

aug-13
nov-13
feb-14
maj-10

maj-11

maj-12

maj-13

maj-14
maj-10
aug-10
nov-10
feb-11
maj-11
aug-11
nov-11
feb-12
maj-12
aug-12
nov-12
feb-13
maj-13
aug-13
nov-13
feb-14
maj-14

=
=
Gasoline US natural gas
(NYMEX, ¢/gal)= (NYMEX, $/MMBtu)=
240 10-02-26 7,5 10-02-26
10-03-24
235 7,0 10-03-24
10-03-31
10-03-31
230 6,5
225 6,0
220 5,5
215 5,0
210 4,5
205 4,0
200 3,5
maj-10

aug-10
nov-10

feb-11
maj-11

aug-11
nov-11

feb-12
maj-12
aug-12

nov-12

feb-13

maj-10
sep-10
jan-11
maj-11
sep-11
jan-12
maj-12
sep-12
jan-13
maj-13
sep-13
jan-14
maj-14
sep-14
jan-15
maj-15
sep-15
jan-16
maj-16
sep-16

=
= =
=
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=

S
SEB Commodity Research
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OPROLíK= ijb= áåîÉåíçêáÉë= êÉã~áåÉÇ= ëí~ÄäÉ=
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áåîÉåíçêáÉë=çå=íÜÉ=ä~ëí=Ç~ó=çÑ=j~êÅÜFK=qÜÉ=òáåÅ=
ã~êâÉí= ÅçåíáåìÉë= íç= ÄÉ= ëäçïK= aÉã~åÇ= áë= ïÉ~â=
~åÇ= ëìééäó= áë= êáëáåÖI= ÉKÖK= áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖ= `ÜáåÉëÉ=
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Ñçêï~êÇK=qÜÉ=Ä~Åâ=ÉåÇ=çÑ=íÜÉ=òáåÅ=ÑìíìêÉë=ÅìêîÉ=
Ü~ë=ãçîÉÇ=áåíç=~=ëíêçåÖÉê=Ä~Åâï~êÇ~íáçå=ïÜáäÉ=
íÜÉ= Ñêçåí= êÉã~áåë= áå= Åçåí~åÖçK= qÉÅÜåáÅ~ä=
~å~äóëáë= E^éêáä= TFW= qÜÉ= ÄÉ~êáëÜ= g~åì~êó= ÉåÖìäÑáåÖ=
éêáåí=êÉã~áåë=íÜÉ=ãçëí=êÉÅÉåí=ëáÖå~ä=~åÇ=áë=äáâÉäó=íç=
Å~é=~å=~Çî~åÅÉ=íÜêçìÖÜ=íÜÉ=äçåÖ=íÉêã=RMB=cáÄç=~í=
rpa=OUORLíK=
=
píÉÉä
=
=

ijb= jÉÇáíÉêê~åÉ~å= ëíÉÉä= ÅäçëÉÇ= ÄÉíïÉÉå= rpa=

QQSJRVPLí=áå=j~êÅÜI=ÉåÇáåÖ=íÜÉ=ãçåíÜ=ÜáÖÜÉê=~í=
rpa= RTPLíK= ijb= áåîÉåíçêáÉë= êçëÉ= Äó= OMB= áå=
j~êÅÜK= ijb= c~ê= b~ëí= Åçåíê~Åíë= Ü~îÉ= äçëí= íÜÉáê=
äáèìáÇáíóI= ãçëí= äáâÉäó= áå= éêÉé~ê~íáçå= çÑ= íÜÉ=
ãÉêÖÉê= çÑ= íÜÉ= íïç= ijb= Åçåíê~Åíë= çå= gìäó= OUK=
däçÄ~ä= ëí~áåäÉëë= ëíÉÉä= éêçÇìÅíáçå= ÑÉää= Ñçê= íÜÉ=
íÜáêÇ= ÅçåëÉÅìíáîÉ= óÉ~ê= áå= OMMVK= eçïÉîÉêI= ëáåÅÉ=
MVeO= éêçÇìÅíáçå= Ü~ë= ÄÉÉå= êÉÅçîÉêáåÖ= çå= ~=
ÖäçÄ~ä= Ä~ëáëK= få= cÉÄêì~êóI= ÖäçÄ~ä= éêçÇìÅíáçå=
ëíÉÉä= ï~ë= ìé= Äó= OQB= óLó= ïáíÜ= ÅäçëÉ= íç= UMB=
Å~é~Åáíó= ìíáäáò~íáçåK= mêçÇìÅíáçå= ï~ë= áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖ=
áå= ~ää= ~êÉ~ëK= oÉëíçÅâáåÖ= ~äçåÖ= íÜÉ= ëìééäó= ÅÜ~áå=
ëÉÉãë=íç=ÄÉ=íÜÉ=ã~áå=ÇêáîÉêK=
=

U
SEB Commodity Research

ALUMINIUM
=

Aluminium price Aluminium stocks

(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)= (LME/COMEX/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)=
3500 5000000 SHFE
COMEX
3250
LME
3000 4000000
2750
2500 3000000
2250
2000 2000000
1750
1500 1000000
1250
1000 0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010 = =
=

COPPER
=

Copper price Copper stocks

(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)= (LME/COMEX/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)
9000 1400000 SHFE
COMEX
8000 1200000 LME

7000
1000000
6000
800000
5000
600000
4000
400000
3000

2000 200000

1000 0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=
NICKEL
=

Nickel price Nickel stocks

(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)= (LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
55000 180000
50000 160000
45000
140000
40000
35000 120000
30000 100000
25000 80000
20000
60000
15000
40000
10000
5000 20000
0 0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=
=
=
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=

V
SEB Commodity Research

ZINC
=

Zinc price Zinc stocks

(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)= (LME/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)=
5000 800000 SHFE
4500 LME
700000
4000 600000
3500
500000
3000
400000
2500
300000
2000
1500 200000

1000 100000

500 0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010 =
LEAD
=

Lead price Lead stocks

(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)= (LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
4000 225000

3500 200000

3000 175000
150000
2500
125000
2000
100000
1500
75000
1000 50000
500 25000
0 0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=
TIN
=

Tin price Tin stocks

(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)= (LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
27000 40000

24000 35000

21000 30000

18000 25000

15000 20000

12000 15000
9000 10000
6000 5000
3000 0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=
= =
=
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=

NM
SEB Commodity Research

STEEL
=

Steel price Steel stocks

(LME Mediterranean, $/t, front month, weekly closing)= (LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
600 55000
50000
550
45000
500 40000
35000
450 30000
400 25000
20000
350 15000
10000
300
5000
250 0
sep-09

nov-09
jan-09

mar-09

maj-09

jul-09

jan-10

mar-10

sep-08

sep-09
jul-08

nov-08

jan-09

mar-09

jul-09
maj-09

nov-09

jan-10

mar-10
= =
FUTURES CURVES
=

Aluminium Copper
(LME, $/t)= (LME, $/t)=

2650 10-02-26 7900

2600 10-03-24 7800
2550 10-03-31 7700 10-02-26
2500
2450 7600 10-03-24

2400 7500 10-03-31

2350 7400
2300 7300
2250 7200
2200
2150 7100
2100 7000
2050 6900
apr-10
jul-10
okt-10
jan-11
apr-11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-12
apr-12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-13
apr-13
jul-13
okt-13
jan-14
apr-14
apr-10
jul-10
okt-10
jan-11
apr-11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-12
apr-12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-13
apr-13
jul-13
okt-13
jan-14
apr-14

=
= =
Nickel Zinc
(LME, $/t)= (LME, $/t)=

25000 2450
24500
10-02-26 2400
24000
23500 10-03-24
10-02-26
23000 10-03-31 2350
10-03-24
22500
2300 10-03-31
22000
21500
2250
21000
20500 2200
20000
19500 2150
apr-10
jul-10
okt-10
jan-11
apr-11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-12
apr-12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-13
apr-13
jul-13
okt-13
jan-14
apr-14

apr-10
jul-10
okt-10
jan-11
apr-11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-12
apr-12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-13
apr-13
jul-13
okt-13
jan-14
apr-14

=
= =
=
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ

NN
SEB Commodity Research

=PRECIOUS METALS
=
=

mêÉÅáçìë= ãÉí~ä= íê~ÇÉÇ= ëáÇÉï~óë= ÇìêáåÖ= íÜÉ=
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ÇìêáåÖ= íÜÉ= Ñáêëí= Ü~äÑ= çÑ= íÜÉ= ãçåíÜK= qÜÉ=
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çå= íÜÉ= çíÜÉê= Ü~åÇI= äçëí= MKRBK= qÜÉ= ã~áå= ÑçÅìë=
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~åÇ= éä~íáåìã= éêáÅÉëK= mêçÄäÉãë= êÉã~áå= ~åÇ= íÜÉ=
ïçêäÇ= Åìé= ïáää= íÉëí= Å~é~Åáíó= Åçåëíê~áåíë= ~Ö~áåK=
pçìíÜ=^ÑêáÅ~=éêçÇìÅÉë=~äãçëí=íïç=íÜáêÇë=çÑ=íÜÉ=
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rpa=NNSNLíK=

^ÅÅçêÇáåÖ= íç= ~= êÉÅÉåí= êÉéçêí= Ñêçã= íÜÉ= tçêäÇ= Gold and selected currencies vs. USD
dçäÇ= `çìåÅáä= Etd`FI= `ÜáåÉëÉ= ÖçäÇ= ÇÉã~åÇ= áë= 3
YTD (%) MoM (%)
äáâÉäó= íç= ÇçìÄäÉ= ÇìêáåÖ= íÜÉ= ÅçãáåÖ= ÇÉÅ~ÇÉ= çå= 2
áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖ= àÉïÉäêó= ~åÇ= áåîÉëíãÉåí= ÇÉã~åÇK= 1
páåÅÉ= ÇçãÉëíáÅ= ëìééäó= áë= ìåäáâÉäó= íç= âÉÉé= ìé=
0
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dçäÇ= Ü~ë= ÄÉÉå= ëíêìÖÖäáåÖ= áå= íÜÉ= ëíêçåÖ= Ççää~ê= GOLD EUR JPY GBP SEK RUB

ÉåîáêçåãÉåí=ä~íÉäó=Äìí=Ü~ë=ÑçìåÇ=Ñáêã=ëìééçêí= `Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=
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ÄÉäçï= ANNMMLçòí= ~ééÉ~êë= íç= ÄÉ= ~= ÖççÇ= äçåÖ=
íÉêã=áåîÉëíãÉåí=Å~ëÉK=
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qÜÉ= áåÇìëíêá~ä= éêÉÅáçìë= ãÉí~äë= ~êÉ= ïÉää=
ëìééçêíÉÇ= Äó= ÄçíÜ= ëíêçåÖ= áåîÉëíãÉåí= ~åÇ=
áåÇìëíêá~ä= ÇÉã~åÇI= ÉKÖK= Ñêçã= íÜÉ= ~ÅÅÉäÉê~íáåÖ=
êÉÅçîÉêó= áå= íÜÉ= ~ìíç= ëÉÅíçêK= m~ää~Çáìã= áë=
çìíéÉêÑçêãáåÖ=éä~íáåìã=ëáåÅÉ=áí=áë=ÄÉííÉê=ëìáíÉÇ=
Ñçê= ìëÉ= áå= ~ìíç= Å~í~äóëíë= Ñçê= Ö~ëçäáåÉ= éçïÉêÉÇ=

NO
SEB Commodity Research

GOLD
=

Gold price Gold to oil & gold to LME Index ratios

(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)= (front month, weekly closing)=
1200 27 0,7
Gold to oil ratio (left axis)
1100 25
Gold to LME Index ratio (right axis)
23 0,6
1000
21
900 0,5
19
800
17
700 0,4
15
600
13
0,3
500 11
400 9 0,2
300 7
200 5 0,1

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010 =
=

SILVER PLATINUM / PALLADIUM

=

Silver price Platinum and palladium prices

(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)= (COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=
22 1100 2300
20 Palladium (left axis)
2050
Platinum (right axis)
18 900
1800
16
14 700 1550

12 1300
10 500 1050
8
800
6 300
550
4
2 100 300
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009
2010
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

= =
=

FUTURES CURVES
=

Gold Silver
(COMEX, $/ozt)= (COMEX, $/ozt)
1275 18,25 10-02-26
1250 10-02-26 18,00 10-03-24
10-03-24 10-03-31
1225 17,75
10-03-31
1200 17,50

1175 17,25

1150 17,00
16,75
1125
16,50
1100
16,25
1075
maj-10
aug-10
nov-10
feb-11
maj-11
aug-11
nov-11
feb-12
maj-12
aug-12
nov-12
feb-13
maj-13
aug-13
nov-13
feb-14
maj-14
aug-14
nov-14
jul-10

jan-11

jul-11

jan-12

jul-12

jan-13

jul-13

jan-14

jul-14
apr-10

okt-10

apr-11

okt-11

apr-12

okt-12

apr-13

okt-13

apr-14

okt-14

=
= =
=
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=

NP
SEB Commodity Research
AGRICULTURE
=
qÜÉ=ÖÉåÉê~ä=íêÉåÇ=áå=íÜÉ=~ÖêáÅìäíìê~ä=ëÉÅíçê=áå=
j~êÅÜ= ï~ë= Ñ~ääáåÖ= éêáÅÉëK= lÑ= íÜÉ= ã~áå= ÅêçéëI=
Åçêå= ~åÇ= ïÜÉ~í= äçëí= íÜÉ= ãçëí= EJNNB= ~åÇ= JNPB=
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SEB Commodity Research

CORN
=

Corn price Corn ending stocks

(CBOT, ¢/bu, front month, weekly closing)= (USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=
800 180 mt
days of supply
700 160

600 140

500 120

400 100

80
300
60
200
40
100

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
=
=
WHEAT
=

Wheat price Wheat ending stocks

(CBOT, ¢/bu, front month, weekly closing)= (USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=
1200 220 mt
1100 days of supply
200
1000
180
900
800 160
700 140
600 120
500
100
400
80
300
200 60
00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

SOYBEANS
=

Soybean price Soybean ending stocks

(CBOT, ¢/bu, front month, weekly closing)= (USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=
1800 120 mt
days of supply
1600
100
1400
80
1200

1000 60
800
40
600

400 20
00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=
=
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜI=rpa^=

NR
SEB Commodity Research

SUGAR COFFEE
=

Sugar price Coffee price (Arabica)

(NYBOT, ¢/lb, front month, weekly closing)= (NYBOT, ¢/lb, front month, weekly closing)=
30 180

25 160

140
20
120
15
100
10
80
5
60

0 40
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
= =
=

=FUTURES CURVES
=

Corn Wheat
(CBOT, ¢/bu)= (CBOT, ¢/bu)=

460 10-02-26 700 10-02-26

10-03-24 10-03-24
440
10-03-31 650 10-03-31

420
600
400
550
380

360 500

340 450
maj-10

aug-10

nov-10

feb-11

maj-11

aug-11

nov-11

feb-12

maj-12

aug-12

nov-12

maj-10

aug-10

nov-10

feb-11

maj-11

aug-11

nov-11

feb-12

maj-12
=

Soybeans Sugar
(CBOT, ¢/bu)= (CBOT, ¢/lb)=

980 25 10-02-26
10-03-24
970
23 10-03-31
960
21
950
940 19
930 10-02-26
10-03-24 17
920 10-03-31

910 15
maj-10

aug-10

nov-10

feb-11

maj-11

aug-11

nov-11

feb-12

maj-12

aug-12
maj-10

maj-11

maj-12
aug-10

nov-10

feb-11

aug-11

nov-11

feb-12

aug-12

nov-12

=
= =
=
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜI=rpa^=

NS
SEB Commodity Research

=
COMMODITY RELATED ECONOMIC INDICATORS
=
=

EUROZONE Current Date Previous Date Next

Industrial production (%, YoY) 1,0 2010-01-31 -4,0 2009-12-31 2010-04-14
Industrial production (%, MoM) 1,5 2010-01-31 0,6 2009-12-31 2010-04-14
Capacity utilization (%, sa) 72,0 2010-03-31 71,0 2009-12-31
Manufacturing PMI 56,6 2010-03-31 54,2 2010-02-28 2010-04-21
Real GDP (%, YoY) -2,1 2009-12-31 -4,1 2009-09-30 2010-04-07
Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) 0,1 2009-12-31 0,4 2009-09-30 2010-04-07
CPI (%, YoY) 0,9 2010-02-28 1,0 2010-01-31 2010-04-16
CPI (%, MoM) 0,3 2010-02-28 -0,8 2010-01-31 2010-04-16
Consumer confidence -17,0 2010-03-31 -17,0 2010-02-28 2010-04-22
USA
Industrial production (%, YoY) 1,7 2010-02-28 0,8 2010-01-31
Industrial production (%, MoM) 0,1 2010-02-28 0,9 2010-01-31 2010-04-15
Capacity utilization (%) 72,7 2010-02-28 72,5 2010-01-31 2010-04-15
Manufacturing PMI 59,6 2010-03-31 56,5 2010-02-28 2010-05-03
Real GDP (%, YoY) 0,1 2009-12-31 -2,6 2009-09-30
Real GDP (%, QoQ, saar) 5,6 2009-12-31 2,2 2009-09-30 2010-04-30
CPI (%, MoM) 2,1 2010-02-28 2,6 2010-01-31 2010-04-14
CPI (%, MoM, sa) 0,0 2010-02-28 0,2 2010-01-31 2010-04-14
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 102,3 2010-01-31 101,4 2009-12-31
Consumer confidence (Michigan) 73,6 2010-03-31 73,6 2010-02-28 2010-04-16
Nonfarm payrolls (net change, sa, ‘000) 162 2010-03-31 -14 2010-02-28 2010-05-07
JAPAN
Industrial production (%, YoY, nsa) 31,3 2010-02-28 18,5 2010-01-31 2010-04-15
Industrial production (%, MoM, sa) -0,9 2010-02-28 2,7 2010-01-31 2010-04-15
Capacity utilization (%, sa) 87,6 2010-01-31 84,3 2009-12-31
Manufacturing PMI 52,5 2010-02-28 52,5 2010-01-31 2010-04-30
Real GDP (%, YoY, nsa) -1,0 2009-12-31 -5,2 2009-09-30
Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) 0,9 2009-12-31 -0,1 2009-09-30 2010-05-20
CPI (%, YoY) -1,8 2010-03-31 -1,8 2010-02-28 2010-04-30
CPI (%, MoM) -0,1 2010-02-28 -0,2 2010-01-31
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 103,0 2010-01-31 101,7 2009-12-31
Consumer confidence 40,0 2010-02-28 39,4 2010-01-31 2010-04-19
CHINA
Industrial production (%, YoY) 12,8 2010-02-28 18,5 2009-12-31 2010-04-15
Manufacturing PMI 55,1 2010-03-31 52,0 2010-02-28 2010-05-01
Real GDP (%, YoY) 10,7 2009-12-31 9,1 2009-09-30 2010-04-15
CPI (%, YoY) 2,7 2010-02-28 1,5 2010-01-31 2010-04-15
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 103,5 2010-01-31 103,3 2009-12-31
Consumer confidence 104,2 2010-02-28 104,7 2010-01-31
Bank lending (%, YoY) 29,3 2010-01-31 31,7 2009-12-31
Fixed asset investment (%, YoY) 30,1 2009-12-31 33,4 2009-09-30
OTHER
OECD Area Comp. Leading Indicator 103,6 2010-01-31 102,8 2009-12-31
Global manufacturing PMI 56,7 2010-03-31 55,4 2010-02-28
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research=

NT
SEB Commodity Research

=PERFORMANCE
=
=
Monthly YTD 1m 1q 1y 5y
closing (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (TR) 1111,74 -5,5 0,1 -3,6 29,2 53,9
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (ER) 1047,43 -5,5 0,1 -3,7 29,1 34,1
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (PI) 1287,10 -5,0 0,2 -3,1 38,7 75,5
UBS B. CMCI Energy Index (PI) 1304,32 -3,9 1,4 -1,2 42,4 37,0
UBS B. CMCI Industrial Metals Index (PI) 1156,54 3,4 8,8 5,0 83,2 101,5
UBS B. CMCI Precious Metals Index (PI) 1628,83 -0,3 0,7 2,0 23,2 156,8
UBS B. CMCI Agriculture Index (PI) 1229,68 -15,9 -9,2 -14,6 5,4 66,3
Baltic Dry Index 2998,00 -4,5 9,5 N/A 85,6 -35,3

Crude Oil (NYMEX, WTI, $/b) 83,76 2,8 5,1 5,5 68,7 51,2
Crude Oil (ICE, Brent, $/b) 82,70 3,2 6,6 6,1 68,0 52,3
Aluminum (LME, $/t) 2299,00 2,7 9,1 4,3 69,0 15,8
Copper (LME, $/t) 7767,75 3,9 8,3 5,7 93,7 127,0
Nickel (LME, $/t) 24972,00 31,9 18,3 35,2 155,5 53,8
Zinc (LME, $/t) 2351,75 -7,7 8,2 -7,2 81,4 73,2
Steel (LME, Far East, $/t) 595,00 41,7 33,7 48,8 77,6 N/A
Steel (LME, Mediterranean, $/t) 572,50 40,5 28,5 45,5 70,4 N/A
Gold (COMEX, $/ozt) 1113,30 -0,4 -0,5 1,6 20,7 159,7
Corn (CBOT, ¢/bu) 345,00 -17,6 -8,7 -16,8 -14,8 62,0
Wheat (CBOT, ¢/bu) 450,50 -19,2 -11,1 -16,8 -15,4 36,1
Soybeans (CBOT, ¢/bu) 941,00 -10,3 -1,1 -9,5 -1,2 50,0
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
=
MAJOR UPCOMMING COMMODITY EVENTS
=
=
Date Source
Department of Energy, US inventory data Wednesdays, 16:30 CET www.eia.doe.gov
American Petroleum Institute, US inventory data Tuesdays, 22:30 CET www.api.org
International Energy Agency, Oil Market Report April 13 www.oilmarketreport.com
OPEC, Oil Market Report April 14 www.opec.org
US Department of Agriculture, Crop Progress Mondays, 22.00 CET www.usda.gov
US Department of Agriculture, WASDE/WAP April 9 www.usda.gov
International Grains Council, Grain Market Report April 22 www.igc.org.uk
OPEC ordinary meeting, Vienna, Austria October 14 www.opec.org
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
=
CONTACT LIST, SEB COMMODITIES
=
=
Position E-mail Phone Mobile
Mikael Nordström Head of Commodities mikael.nordstrom@seb.se +46 8 506 230 26 +46 70 293 00 12
RESEARCH
Bjarne Schieldrop Chief Analyst bjarne.schieldrop@seb.no +47 22 82 72 53 +47 92 48 92 30
Filip Petersson Commodity Strategist filip.petersson@seb.se +46 8 506 230 47 +46 70 996 08 84
SALES
Arne Boberg Head of Sales arne.boberg@seb.se +46 8 506 230 50 +46 70 699 99 67
Charlotte Aleblad Corporate Sales charlotte.aleblad@seb.se +46 8 506 233 91 +46 76 037 91 10
Magnus Wallenbert Corporate Sales magnus.wallenbert@seb.se +46 8 506 230 24 +46 76 213 33 40
Katarina Johnsson Corporate Sales katarina.johnsson@seb.se +46 8 506 233 95 +46 73 501 52 02
TRADING
Stefan Fastesson Head of Trading stefan.fastesson@seb.se +46 8 506 230 13 +46 73 850 13 30
Mats Forsell Trader mats.forsell@seb.se +46 8 506 230 14 +46 70 496 20 82
Mats Hedberg Trader mats.hedberg@seb.se +46 8 506 230 15 +46 70 462 29 78
Karin Almgren Broker karin.almgren@seb.se +46 8 506 230 51 +46 73 642 31 76
Christian Ekstrand Quantitative Analyst christian.ekstrand@seb.se +46 8 506 230 40 +46 70 763 91 95
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research=
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