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Myanma Alinn Sunday Issue

13

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we*FaEG? azazmf0g&D 14? 2016

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azazmf0g&D

13

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tdk*s[monf &mZ0wfrIqdkif&mjypfrI 10 ckxufru &ifqdkifcJh&NyD;
,refESpfjynfe,fa&G;aumufyGJrsm;wGifvnf; ratmifrjrifyg0if,SOfNydKif
cJholwpfOD;jzpfaMumif;? tdk*s[maoqHk;rIESifhywfoufNyD; if;\yk*dKvfa&;
t& ,SONf yKd ib
f ufjzpfow
l pfO;D udk &JwyfzUJG u oHo,&Sad eaMumif; owif;
rD'D,mrsm;u azmfjyonf/
tvm;wl ywemNrdKUrS ajrmufbuf qm&efcdkif csmy&mNrdKUwGif
vnf; azazmf0g&D 12 &ufu bD[mjynfe,f bDa*syDygwDacgif;aqmif

wpfOD;jzpfonfh uD'gqifhqdkolvnf; towfcHcJh&aMumif; od&onf/

wpfqufwnf;rSmyif jynfe,ftwGif; twdkuftcHygwDjzpfonfh
bDa*syDygwDu bD[mjynfe,ftpdk;&tm; tdk*s[mudk owfjzwfolrsm;
ukd 72 em&DtwGi;f zrf;qD;&efEiS hf 4if;wdaYk wmif;qdo
k nft
h wdik ;f jynfe,f
tpd;k &u aqmif&u
G jf cif;r&Syd gu jynfe,fwpf0ef;vk;H qEjyrI vkyaf qmif
oGm;rnf[k awmif;qdkcJhaMumif; od&onf/
jynfe,ftwGif; w&m;Oya'pdk;rdk;a&;ESifh ywfoufNyD; okH;oyf
a&;qdkif&m ESpf&ufMumtpnf;ta0; tNyD;owfonfh aeYrSmyif
azmfjyygESpfOD;pvkH; towfcH&rIjzpfay:vmcJhjcif;jzpfonf/
(qif[Gm)

we*FaEG? azazmf0g&D 14? 2016

60 &mcdkifEIef;rS 70 &mcdkifEIef;txd&Sdonfh a'o

rsm;rSm ucsifjynfe,f? csif;jynfe,f? &Srf;jynfe,f
ajrmufydkif;? ppfudkif;wdkif;a'oBuD;? rEav;wdkif;
a'oBuD;? rauG;wdkif;a'oBuD;wdkYjzpfNyD;? 70 &mcdkif
EIef;rS 100 &mcdkifEIef;txd aocsmonfha'orsm;
t,feDndKtajctae
t,feDndKjzpfpOfqdkonfrSm tDauGwmteD;
ypdzdwfork'&mwGif yifv,fa&rsufESmjyif tylcsdef
ykHrSefxuf ydkrdkylaEG;jcif;udkac:onf/ 2015 ckESpf
'DZifbmvv,ftwGif; tDauGwmteD;&Sd tylydkif;
ypdzdwfork'&m ta&SUtv,fydkif; (East-Central
Tropical Pacific Ocean) \ yifv,fa&rsuE
f mS jyif
tylcsed o
f nf tm;aumif;aom t,fen
D Kd jzpfay:Edik f
onft
h qift
h xd ylaEG;vsu&f adS eonf/ cefrY eS ;f csuf
rsm;t& tqdkyg ypdzdwfork'&mwGif 2015-2016
ckESpf 'DZifbm? Zefe0g&DESifh azazmf0g&D oHk;vysrf;rQ
yifv,fa&rsuEf mS jyiftylcsed o
f nf tm;taumif;qk;H
t,feDndKtqifhodkY a&muf&Sdatmif ylaEG;Edkifojzifh
1950 jynfEh pS rf S 2014 ckEpS t
f wGi;f jzpfay:cJah om
t,feDndKjzpfpOfrsm;teuftm;taumif;qkH; jzpfcJh
onfh 1972-1973 ? 1982-1983 ESifh 19971998 ckESpfwdkYxuf ydkrdktm;aumif;aom t,feDndK
(Very Strong El-Nino)
jzpfvmEdkifaMumif;?
t,feDndKjzpfpOfonf 2016 ckESpf rwf? {NyDESifh
artxd qufvufjzpfay:EdkifNyD; wjznf;jznf;
tm;avsmhoGm;EdkifaMumif; urmhrdk;av0oXmecsKyf
(World Meteorological Organization)ESifh EdkifiH
wumrdk;av0oESifh &moDOwkcefYrSef;a&; A[dkXme
rsm;rS xkwfjyeftoday;xm;onf/
t,fen
D Kd jzpfpOfEiS hf &moDOwktay:tusKd ;oufa&mufrI
avxkEiS hf yifv,fork'& mwd\
Yk tjyeftvSef
oufa&mufrI (Atmosphere-Ocean interaction
process) onf &moDOwktay:udk tusKd ;jyKayonf/
odjYk zpf&m t,fen
D Kd jzpfpOfonfvnf; yifv,fork'& m
qdik &f m jzpfpOfwpfcjk zpf avxkEiS hf yifv,fork'& m
wdkY\ tjyeftvSef oufa&mufrIaMumifh urmh&moD
Owktay: tusKd ;oufa&mufaponf/ t,fen
D Kd EpS f
rsm;wGif yifv,fa&rsuEf mS jyiftxuf avwdu
k cf wf
ykHonf ykHrSefESpfrsm;wGif wdkufcwfavh&Sdaom avpD;
aMumif;rsm;ESifhrwlbJ ajymif;vJoGm;onfudk ykHwGif
awGU&SdEdkifonf/

t,fen
D Kd \ qefu
Y sib
f ufjzpfpOfjzpfonfh vmeDnm
(La Nina) tajctaeodkY ajymif;oGm;avh&Sdonf/
odkY&mwGif tcsdKUaoma'orsm;wGif t,feDndKjzpfpOf
tm;aysmhoGm;onfh tcsdefumva&muf&SdrSomvQif
t,fen
D Kd \tusKd ;oufa&mufrjI zpfonfh tm;aumif;
onfh rkefwdkif;rsm;jzpfay:jcif;? rdk;&GmoGef;rI ykHrSef
r[kwjf cif;? rd;k &GmoGe;f rI avsmeh nf;jcif;(rd;k acgifjcif;)?
yljyif;ajcmufaoGUjcif; ponfh t,fen
D Kd &moDOwkukd
cHpm;&avh&Sdonf/
1900 jynfEh pS rf pS avhvmxm;onfrh w
S w
f rf;
rsm;t& t,feDndKjzpfpOf 26 Budrf&SdcJh&m t,feDndK
jzpfpOfNyD;onfhaemuf 50 &mcdkifEIef;onf ykHrSef
tajctaejzpfcJhNyD; 40 &mckdifEIef;onf vmeDnm
tajctaejzpfcJhaMumif; 2016 ckESpf 'kwd,ESpf0uf
umvwGif jzpfay:Edik o
f nfh ykrH eS jf zpfpOfEiS hf vmeDnm
jzpfpOf jzpfay:EdkifrItajctaeonf nDwlnDrQ
jzpfaeaMumif; MopaMw;vs rd;k av0oXme (Bureau
of Meteorology, Australia) rS cefYrSef;xm;
onf/
t,feDndKESifh jrefrmEdkifiH\ &moDOwktay:
qef;ppfcsuf
udkvHbD,mwuodkvf&Sd tjynfjynfqdkif&m
&moDOwkESifh vlrIqdkif&mokawoetzGJU (International Research Institute for Climate and Society
(IRI) rS t,feDndKESpfrsm;wGif urmhEdkifiHtoD;oD;

\ &moDOwktajctae qef;ppfcsuf (ykHrSef? pGwfpdk?

ajcmufaoGU)udk (1950-2002 ckESpf) rSwfwrf;rsm;
tay: tajccHwGufcsufrIrsm;t& t,feDndKESpfrsm;
wGif jrefrmEdkifiH\ aEG&moDumv (azazmf0g&D?
rwfESihf {NyD)rsm; pGwfpdktajctaeudk jrefrmEdkifiH
ajrmufydkif;a'orsm; (ucsifjynfe,f)wGif jzpfay:
EdkifNyD; jzpfEdkifpGrf;taejzifh 0 'or 4 rS 0 'or
5 cefY &SNd y;D useaf 'orsm;wGif jzpfEikd pf rG ;f avsmeh nf;
aMumif; awGU&Sd&onf/ ykHrSeftajctaeudk &Srf;jynf
e,f ajrmufyikd ;f ? ppfuikd ;f wdik ;f a'oBu;D txufyikd ;f
ESifh &cdkifjynfe,fajrmufydkif;wdkYwGif jzpfay:EdkifNyD;

ykHrSefESpfESifh t,feDndKESpfrsm;wGif avpD;aMumif;rsm; vSnfhywfwdkufcwfrIjyykH

(Atmosphere-Ocean interaction process)

ykHrSefESpf (Neutral)
odjYk zpf&m avpD;aMumif;rsm; ajymif;vJwu
kd cf wf
onft
h wGuf urmwpf0ef;&Sd rd;k av0ojzpfpOfrsm;ESihf
&moDOwkrsm;onfvnf; ajymif;vJoGm;aponf/
txufavxkwu
kd cf wfyHk ajymif;vJomG ;ojzifh ykrH eS f
rdk;enf;onfhae&mrsm;wGif rdk;rsm;jcif;? rdk;rsm;onfh
ae&mrsm;wGif rd;k enf; rd;k acgifrjI zpfapjcif;? atmuf
bufavpD;aMumif;rsm; wdu
k cf wfaom a'orsm;wGif
wdrfjzpfxGef;rIenf;NyD; aeYtylcsdefjrifhrm;um yljyif;
ajcmufaoGUrI jzpfay:jcif;? yifv,fa&ylaEG;rIaMumifh
tm;aumif;aom tylydkif;rkefwdkif;rsm; jzpfay:jcif;
ponfwdkYonf t,feDndK&moDOwkjzpfonf/ ykHrSef
tm;jzifh t,feDndKjzpfpOfonf ESpfwpfESpf\ yxr
av;vywfEiS hf 'kw,
d av;vywftwGi;f tm;avsmh
oGm;Ny;D aemuf ykrH eS (f Neutral) tajctae (odrYk [kw)f

t,feDndKESpf (El Nino)

jzpfEdkifpGrf;taejzifh 0 'or 4 rS 0 'or 6cefY
&SNd y;D useaf 'orsm;wGif jzpfEikd pf rG ;f avsmeh nf;aMumif;
awGU&Sd&onf/
ajcmufaoGUtajctaeudk jrefrmEdkifiH ta&SU
ydkif; (&Srf;jynfe,fawmifydkif;ESifh u,m;jynfe,f)
wGifvnf;aumif;? jrefrmEdkifiHtv,fydkif; a'orsm;
(rEav;wdkif;a'oBuD;? rauG;wdkif;a'oBuD;)wGif
vnf;aumif;? jrpf0uRef;ay:a'orsm; (yJcl;wdkif;
a'oBu;D ? &efuek w
f ikd ;f a'oBu;D ? {&m0wDwikd ;f a'o
BuD;)wGifvnf;aumif;? jrefrmEdkifiH awmifydkif;a'o
rsm; (u&ifjynfe,f? rGefjynfe,fESifh weoFm&Dwdkif;
a'oBu;D )wGiv
f nf;aumif; jzpfay:Edik Nf y;D jzpfEikd pf rG ;f
taejzifh 0 'or 7 rS 1 'or 0 txd&SdaMumif;
awGU&Sd&onf/

t,feDndKESpfrsm;wGif aEG&moDumv (azazmf0g&D? rwfESifh {NyD)rsm;

jrefrmEdkifiH\ rdk;&&SdrItay: qef;ppfcsuf
pGwfpdktajctae

jzpfEdkifpGrf;(Probability)

yHkrSeftajctae

jzpfEdkifpGrf;(Probability)

ajcmufaoGUtajctae

jzpfEdkifpGrf;(Probability)

Source: International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)

t,feDndKjzpfpOfaMumifh NyD;cJhonfh 2015 ckESpf

'DZifbmvwGif jrefrmEdkifiH\ wdkif;a'oBuD;ESifh
jynfe,frsm;wGif jzpfay:cJah om &moDOwktajctae
(rdk;a&csdefESifh tylcsdef)rsm;tm; avhvmMunfhygu
rdk;&GmoGef;rI tajctaerSm weoFm&Dwdkif;a'oBuD;?
ucsifjynfe,fESifh u,m;jynfe,fwdkYwGif &GmoGef;
NrJxufydkcJhNyD; usefwdkif;a'oBuD;ESifh jynfe,fwdkYwGif
&GmoGef;NrJatmufavsmhenf;um &GmoGef;cJhygonf/
'DZifbmvwGif b*Fvm;yifv,fatmf avzdtm;
enf;&yf0ef;ESifh rkefwdkif;rsm;jzpfay:rI enf;yg;cJhNyD;?
rdk;a&csdef&&Sdonfh yrmPrSmvnf; vGefpGmenf;yg;
cJo
h nf/ ntylcsed rf sm;tajctaerSmvnf; weoFm&D
wdkif;a'oBuD;ESifh rGefjynfe,fwdkYwGif 'DZifbmv\
ysrf;rQtylcsdefwdkYxuf tenf;i,fydkcJhNyD; usefwdkif;
a'oBuD;ESif jynfe,fwdkYwGif 'DZifbmv\ ysrf;rQ
tylcsed cf efY &Scd o
hJ jzifh ylaEG;onft
h ajctae jzpfay:
cJhonfudk awGU&onf/
jrefrmEdkifiHtwGuf 2016 ckESpf aEG&moDumv
azazmf0g&D? rwfESihf {NyD cefYrSef;csuf
urmhrdk;av0otzGJUcsKyf (World Meteorological Organization)\ &uf&Snf&moDOwkcefYrSef;
a&;XmerS tm&Sa'otwGuf Zefe0g&Dvudk tajccHNy;D
2016 ckESpf aEG&moDumv azazmf0g&D? rwfESihf
{NyD\ rdk;a&csdefESifh tylcsdefudk cefYrSef;xm;onf/
rd;k &GmoGe;f rIcefrY eS ;f csurf sm;taejzifh wpfEikd if v
H ;Hk wGif
&GmoGef;NrJxuf ydkEdkifonfha'orsm;r&SdbJ &GmoGef;NrJ
rdk;a&csdefatmuf avsmhenf;&GmoGef;Edkifonfh a'o
rsm;om&Sdonf/ &GmoGef;NrJatmuf avsmhenf;rI
20 &mcdkifEIef;rS 30 &mcdkifEIef;cefY aocsmrI&Sdonfh
a'orsm;rSm ucsifjynfe,f? csif;jynfe,f? &Srf;
jynfe,fajrmufydkif;?
ppfudkif;wdkif;a'oBuD;?
rEav;wdkif;a'oBuD;ESifh rauG;wdkif;a'oBuD;wdkY
jzpfNyD; &GmoGef;NrJatmuf avsmhenf;rI 50 &mcdkifEIef;
xd aocsmrI&Sdonfh a'orsm;rSm &cdkifjynfe,f? &Srf;
jynfe,f awmifyikd ;f ESihf ta&SUydik ;f ? u,m;jynfe,f?
yJc;l wdik ;f a'oBu;D ? {&m0wDwikd ;f a'oBu;D ? 50 &mcdik f
EIe;f rS 60 &mcdik Ef eI ;f xd aocsmrI&o
dS nfh a'orsm;rSm
u&ifjynfe,f? rGefjynfe,f? &efukefwdkif;a'oBuD;
ESifh weoFm&Dwdkif;a'oBuD;wdkY jzpfMuonf/
aeYtylcsdefrsm;taejzifh wpfjynfvkH;wGif ysrf;rQ
tylcsed (f ykrH eS t
f ylcsed )f xuf ydEk ikd Nf y;D aocsmrI&mcdik Ef eI ;f

rSm aejynfawmf? &Srf;jynfe,f awmifydkif;? &cdkif

jynfe,f? u,m;jynfe,f? rGejf ynfe,f? u&ifjynfe,f?
yJcl;wdkif;a'oBuD;? &efukefwdkif;a'oBuD;? {&m0wD
wdkif;a'oBuD;ESifh weoFm&Dwdkif;a'oBuD;wdkY jzpf
onf/
okH;oyfcsuf
tm;toift
h wif&h dS t,fen
D Kd EpS jf zpfonfh 2010
jynfhESpfwGif aEG&moDumvjzpfaom rwfvrS arv
twGif; uav;0? rkH&Gm? rEav;? rdwDvm? jrif;rl?
jrif;NcH? anmifOD;? aejynfawmf(ysOf;rem;)? aejynf
awmf(a&qif;)? &rnf;oif;? jyifOD;vGif? rdk;ukwf?
rauG;? rif;bl;? yckuL? jynf? &efukef(urmat;)?
c&rf;? odrfZ&yf? aumhaomif;ESifh trf;NrdKUwdkYwGif
aeYtylcsdefrsm; pHcsdefwifjrifhwufcJh&m jrif;rlNrdKUwGif
arvtwGif; tjrifhqkH; tylcsdef 47 'or 2 'D*&D
pifw*D &dwt
f xd pHcsed w
f ifjrifrh m;cJah Mumif; rSww
f rf;
rsm;wGif awGU&Sd&onf/
2016 ckEpS f aEG&moDumv azazmf0g&D? rwfEiS fh
{NyDtwGuf cefYrSef;csufrsm;t& jrefrmEdkifiHwGif
rd;k &GmoGe;f rIavsmeh nf;jcif;? tylcsed jf rifrh m;jcif; ponfh
&moDOwkuo
kd m awGUBuKH Eikd o
f nf/odjYk zpf t,fen
D Kd
jzpfpOf\ tusdK;oufa&mufrIaMumifh rdk;&GmoGef;rI
avsmhenf;jcif;? aEG&moDwGif aeYtylcsdef jrifhrm;jcif;
ponfh &moDOwktajctaersm; jzpfay:vmEdkif
ojzifh yljyif;a jcmufaoGUjcif;? a&&Sm;yg;jcif;ESifh tyl
aMumifhjzpfay:Edkifonfh usef;rma&;qdkif&m jyem
rsm; BuHKawGU&Edkifygonf/ aEG&moDumvrsm;wGif
jrpfacsmif;rsm; jrpfa&rsm; ykHrSefxufavsmhenf;
jcif;rsm; jzpfay:vmEdkifygonf/ tqdkygtajctae
rsm;onf pdkufysdK;a&;? tpm;tpmzlvkHa&;? pdkufysdK;
a&&&Sda&;? a&ay;a0a&;? aomufokH;a&zlvkHa&;?
vQypf pfr;D &&Sad &;? use;f rma&;? ig;vkyif ef;? a&aMumif;
oGm;vma&;? c&D;oGm;vkyfief; ponfhu@rsm;wGif
oufa&mufrIrsm; &SdEdkifonf/
EdkifiHwumrS t,feDndKESifhywfouf
BudKwifjyifqifaqmif&Gufcsufrsm;
tdEd,EdkifiH\ rkwfokH&moDtwGif; rdk;&&SdrI
avsmeh nf;jcif;onf t,fen
D Kd jzpfpOfEiS hf tm;aumif;
pGm qufpyfaeonft
h wGuf 2015 ckEpS f rkwo
f &Hk moD

pmrsufESm 7 aumfvH 1 okdY

we*FaEG? azazmf0g&D 14? 2016

a a&SUzHk;rS
rauG;wdkif;a'oBuD; 0efBuD;csKyf
OD;bkef;armfa&T? tv,fydkif;wdkif;
ppfXmecsKyf wdik ;f rSL; Adv
k cf sKypf ;kd xG#?f
wdkif;a'oBuD;
0efBuD;rsm;?
rauG;wyfe,frS
wyfrawmf
t&m&SBd u;D rsm;? Xmeqdik &f mwm0ef
&Sdolrsm;?
bmoma&;toif;
tzGJUrsm;? zdwfMum;xm;olrsm;ESifh
a'ocHjynfolrsm; wufa&muf
Muonf/
a&S;OD;pGm ref;a&Tpufawmf&m
bk&m;t0ifvrf; r*FvmrkcfOD;ESifh
atmufpufawmf&m t0ifvrf;
r*FvmrkcOf ;D rsm;udk Edik if aH wmfoC
H
r[mem,u tzGUJ Ou| q&mawmf?
rauG;wdkif;a'oBuD; oHCem,u
tzGJUOu| q&mawmfESifh &efukef
a&Tpifa&Tom; pufvuPmyg'apwDawmfukd r*FvmrkcOf D;okYd yifhaqmifMupOf/ "mwfyHk-wifxGe;f OD;(rif;bl;)
wdkif;a'oBuD; oHCem,utzGJU
dS rl sm;u atmufpufawmf
Ou|q&mawmfwdkYu zJBudK;jzwf tzGUJ Ou| q&mawmfu pufcvkwf BuD; trSL;jyKaom oHCmawmfrsm;? wm0ef&o
wdkif;a'oBuD;0efBuD;csKyf? wdkif;rSL;? &m tvif;aygufzeftkyfaqmif;
zGifhvSpfay;MuNyD; rkcfOD;qdkif;bkwf ESdyfzGifhvSpfay;onf/
xdkYaemuf Aef;armfq&mawmf bk&m;a*gyu tzGJU0ifrsm;ESifh awmfukd r*Fvmtcsed w
f iG f zGiv
hf pS
f
rsm;udk Edik if aH wmfoC
H r[mem,u

a&pifrsm;oGe;f zse;f jcif;? a&TouFe;f

rsm;uyfvLS ylaZmfMuNy;D oHCmawmf
t&Sifoljrwfrsm;u Ak'gbdaou
taeuZmwif &GwfzwfylaZmfMu
onf/
,if;aemuf txuf
pufawmf&m yg'apwDawmfjrwfoYkd
<ua&mufMuum apwDawmftm;
a&csrf;? qDrD;rsm; uyfvSLylaZmf
MunfnKd MuNy;D txufpufawmf&m
yg'apwDawmfjrwfukd Ak'g bdaou
taeuZmwif &GwfzwfylaZmfMu
onf/
qufvuf er'gAk'o
moemh
r[mAdrmefawmfzGifhyGJ r*Fvm
tcrf;tem;jyKvkyf&m Aef;armf
q&mawmfBuD;? &efukefwdkif;
a'oBuD;ESifh rauG;wdkif;a'oBuD;
oHCem,utzGUJ Ou| q&mawmf
wdu
Yk r*Fvmtcsed w
f iG f Adrmefawmf
BuD;udk zJBudK;jzwfzGifhvSpfay;NyD;
Aef;armfq&mawmfBuD;u er'g
Ak'omoemhr[m
Adrmefawmf

armfuGef;pmwrf;udk zGifhvSpf
tarT;eHYom&nfrsm; yufzsef;ay;
onf/ ,if;aemuf AdrmefawmfBu;D
udef;0yfpHy,fawmfrlonfh
a&S;a[mif; Ak' yk yf mG ;awmfrsm;tm;
Ak'gbdaoutaeuZmwifawmf
rlMuNyD; oHCmawmfrsm;u y&dwf
w&m;awmfrsm; &Gwzf wfo&Zsm,f
Muonf/ xdkYaemuf rauG;wdkif;
a'oBuD; 0efBuD;csKyfu r*Fvmrkcf
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(KHUN ANGKANA AISIRI)
Bangkok NrdKUae Mr. Vikrom Aisiri(Chairman) Andaman Club,
Phuket Airline, VES Group Co.,Ltd. \ZeD; Ms.Angkana Aisiri

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VES Group Co.,Ltd.
Myanmar VES Joint Venture Co.,Ltd.
Myanmar Andaman Pearl Co.,Ltd.
Silk Brothers International Co.,Ltd.
Royal Aung Chan International Co.,Ltd.

we*FaEG? azazmf0g&D 14? 2016

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OD;bjrifh (B.A.,C.P.A,D.E.P,H.G..P,R.L)
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UNDP (tNidrf;pm;)

Managing Director
(Natural Grace Travels & Tours Co.,Ltd)
Director (King & Queen International Co.,Ltd)
Director (Knowledge & Qualification International
Services Co.,Ltd)

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