March 16, 2007 ACTION MEMO FOR CHAIRMAN, INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ADVISORY BOARD FROM: ISAB Executive Director, Dr.

George Look

SUBJECT: Approval of February 5 ISAB Meeting Minutes Recommendation: That you certify that the attached minutes of the February 5, 2007, International Security Advisory Board (ISAB) meeting are complete and accurate by signing and dating the "approve" line below. Background: By law, the board chairman must certify the accuracy of minutes taken during board meetings. This must be done within 90 days of the meeting. The ISAB Executive Directorate took notes during the February 5 board meeting and transcribed them into the attached document. Once certified, these minutes will be maintained by the ISAB Directorate at the Department of State.

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INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ADIVISOR BOARD SUMMARY OF MINUTES OF THE FULL BOARD MEETING OF FEBRUARY 5, 2007 (U) (U) A plenary meeting of the Secretary's International Security Advisory Board was held in the Principal's Conference Room (7516), at the Department of State (Harry S Truman Building) on February 5, 2007. (U) This meeting was held in accordance with provisions of the Federal Advisory Committee Act (P.L. 92-463), which sets forth the standards for the formation and conduct of government advisory committees. Since the meeting was devoted to discussion of matters recognized as not subject to public disclosure, the meeting was conducted in a closed session. ATTENDANCE (U) (U) Board Members Present: Senator Fred Thompson (Chairman); Dr. Michael Anastasio; Dr. Ashton B. Carter; Dr. William Graham; Mr. Mitchel Kugler; VADM Robert Monroe (USN, Ret); Dr. Gordon Oehler; Dr. Keith Payne; Dr. Robert Pfaltzgraff; Senator Charles Robb; Dr. C. Paul Robinson; Dr. Amy Sands; Dr. James Schlesinger; Dr. William Schneider; Dr. William Van Cleave. Board Members Absent: Dr. Kathleen Bailey; Ms. Alison B. Fortier; Dr. Ronald Lehman; Mr. R. James Woolsey. Quorum Present: Yes. (U) Others Present: Dr. Condoleezza Rice, Secretary of State; Dr. Robert Joseph, Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Affairs; Mr. John Rood, Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation; Ms. Paula DeSutter, Assistant Secretary for Verification, Compliance and Implementation; Ambassador Stephen Mull, Acting Assistant Secretary for Political-Military Affairs; Mr. Thomas Cynkin, Executive Assistant to the Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security Affairs; Mr. Tim Katsapis, Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security Affairs; Mr. Thomas Lehrman, Director of the Office of Weapons of Mass Destruction Terrorism; Mr. Michael Sechrist, Staff of the Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security; Ms. Jaisha Wray, Staff of the Assistant Secretary for Verification, Compliance, and Implementation.

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(U) ISAB Executive Secretariat Staff Dr. George Look (Executive Director); Mr. Brandon Buttrick; Major Christopher Byrom; Ms. Thelma Jenkins-Anthony; Dr. Kerry Kartchner; Ms. M. Wendy Reid; Mr. Gonzalo Suarez; Mr. Matthew Zartman. (U) Presentations By: Mr. Adam Scheinman, Assistant Deputy Administrator for Nonproliferation and International Security, National Nuclear Security Administration Mr. Andrew Makridis, Deputy Director, Weapons Intelligence, Nonproliferation, and Arms Control Center, Central Intelligence Agency

SUMMARY OF THE MEETING (U) (U) The meeting was held from 8:30AM to 5:00 PM, with a 45 minute lunch. The agenda for the meeting is at Attachment 1. (U) ISAB Chairman Senator Fred Thompson, opened the meeting by introducing ISAB Executive Director Dr. George Look who made administrative remarks. (U) Chairman Thompson reviewed the agenda, announcing the main objective of the meeting-the approval of Sen. Robb's Task Force Report on Building International Coalitions to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction Terrorism-and introduced the first speaker, Mr. Adam Scheinman, who discussed peaceful nuclear energy and the implications for nonproliferation. Future of Peaceful Nuclear Energy (U) Mr. Scheinman, Assistant Deputy Administrator for Nonproliferation and International Security, National Nuclear Security Administration, informed the Board that future energy demands are expected to increase 100 percent by 2030. Current levels of coal, natural gas, and nuclear energy production will not be able to supply future demand. As a result, the expansion of nuclear energy production is already underway, with consequences for nuclear proliferation as there is greater opportunity for misuse, sabotage, or diversion of nuclear materials. He discussed several proposals from the IAEA, the U.S., Russia, and others, that have emerged to deal with the issue of providing fuel assurances. In particular, the U.S.'s Global Nuclear Energy Program (GNEP) aims to confine enrichment and reprocessing to a

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UNCLASSIFIED handful of states through reliable fuel services, described as "supply and take back" (supply nuclear fuel and take back spent fuel). Roundtable Discussion with Under Secretary Joseph (U) Under Secretary Joseph began the roundtable discussion by acknowledging that there were no perfect solutions to the problems of nuclear energy demands and nuclear proliferation. He then spoke about programs to deal with these problems and with the proliferation problems posed by Iran and North Korea. The ensuing discussion with the Board covered topics including improving bilateral relations with countries in the Middle East, the efficacy of sanctions, U.S. force posture, economic incentives for nonproliferation, and the impact of the Iraq War. Nuclear Proliferation Over the Next Decade (U) The Board reconvened after a break and Sen. Thompson introduced the next speaker, Mr. Andy Makridis, Deputy Director of the Weapons Intelligence, Proliferation, and Arms Control Center at the Central Intelligence Agency who led a classified discussion of issues affecting nuclear proliferation. (U) Concluding this discussion, Sen. Thompson announced adjournment for lunch. The Board reconvened at approximately 1245 and began the afternoon session. Presentation of the Report of the Task Force on Building International Coalitions to Combat WMD Terrorism (U) Task Force Chairman Sen. Charles Robb acknowledged the collaborative nature of the report and thanked members of the Task Force for their efforts. He explained the purpose of the task force, described the structure of the report, and introduced Dr. Keith Payne, who briefed the first part of the report, a methodology for combating WMD terrorism. (U) Following Dr. Payne's presentation, Sen. Robb discussed the major findings and recommendations of the report, including public diplomacy, engaging a wider array of partners, and the ideas for strengthening the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism. (U) Following discussion, all Board members unanimously approved the report. Space Policy Task Force Status
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(U) Sen. Thompson introduced Dr. William Van Cleave, who updated the Board on the status of his task force report, announcing that a draft of the report will be circulated prior to the next meeting. Dr. Van Cleave also announced a meeting of the Space Policy Task Force to be held the following week. Future ISAB Studies (U) Dr. Gordon Oehler explained that he had received a preliminary draft of the Teens of Reference for the Task Force on Preventing the Rapid Expansion of Nuclear States. The task force has a broad charter so it is imperative for the members of the Task Force to define the problems of rapid expansion of nuclear states. The focus of the Task Force should be on what hasn't been already done or hasn't been done convincingly. (U) Dr. Paul Robinson stated that his Task Force on Global Expansion of Civil Nuclear Power will try to focus on nation-states that use nuclear power programs as a cover for clandestine nuclear weapons programs. Among other things, this study will analyze the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and try to identify means of strengthening the IAEA safeguards regime. Board members identified several issues regarding the problems of civil nuclear power, nuclear proliferation, and the weaknesses of the NPT that should be addressed in the report. Future Board Activities - How Should Board Work Be Conducted and Disseminated? (U) Sen. Thompson initiated a general discussion of Board activities and asked members for their views on how the Board should conduct its business over the coming year. Sen. Thompson asked for Board members views on holding open public meetings. Members opined that, given the classified nature of the subjects being addressed by the Board, such meetings would likely not be very beneficial, as discussion would be severely restricted by the need to keep the discussions general and unclassified. It was suggested that posting the unclassified versions of Board's reports on the Department of State's ISAB web site and, perhaps, holding open meetings to discuss the unclassified parts of the Board's conclusions and recommendations might be a more appropriate way of publicizing and disseminating the work of the Board. (U) Sen. Thompson called for a break and asked the Board to reconvene at 1600 when Secretary Rice would join them. 4 UNCLASSIFIED

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Discussion with the Secretary (U) Secretary Rice arrived at 1615 and Sen. Thompson provided a brief introduction, after which Secretary Rice noted that this was Under Secretary Joseph's final ISAB meeting as Under Secretary. (U) Sen. Robb and Dr. Payne provided the Secretary a summary brief of their Task Force Report on Building International Coalitions to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction Terrorism. Sen. Thompson followed with a description of the work to be undertaken by new Task Forces on Preventing the Rapid Expansion of Nuclear States and on Global Expansion of Civil Nuclear Power. (U) A classified discussion between Secretary Rice and members of the Board ensued regarding various aspects of nuclear energy, proliferation, Iran's nuclear program and Six-Party Talks on the North Korean nuclear program. (U) The meeting adjourned at 5:00 PM.

Attachments (U): 1. (U) ISAB Meeting Agenda, February 5, 2007

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Opening Remarks (Senator Thompson) Future of Peaceful Nuclear Energy (Adam Scheinman, Assistant Deputy Administrator for Nonproliferation and International Security, NNSA) Break Roundtable Discussion (Under Secretary Joseph) Nuclear Proliferation over the Next Decade (Andy Makridis, Deputy Director of WINPAC/CIA) Lunch Administrative Comments / ISAB Members Web Site Task Force Reports (Senator Thompson) 1300 Approval of Report of Task Force on WMD Terrorism (Senator Robb) 1430 Report of the Task Force on Space Policy (Dr. Van Cleave)

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Discussion of Future Work Break Discussion with Secretary Rice Wrap-up (Senator Thompson)

1600 1700

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