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Ag Hedge Daily Newsletter

2/18/2016
- Good morning from Chicago Get expert perspective on today's Ag markets from some of the most respected names in the industry. Zaner experts have been quoted in Dow Jones Newswires, AgWeb.com, Top
Producer, CME, CBOT & MGEX exchange publications, Futures Magazine, Stocks and Commodities Magazine, Forbes, BarChart.com, Tradingmarkets.com, CommodityTrader.com,
Financial Engineering News, Risk Controlled Investing and many other publications. Feel free to call us at: 312-277-0113 for more information.
Learn more about our Ag Hedge services
Note: Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives
transaction.

IMPORTANT NOTICES

OPENING CALLS

Feb 19: Export Sales at 7:30am & Cattle on Feed at 2:00pm – Last Trade Options for March Chi, KC, MN wheat, corn, Corn:
soybeans, soyoil, soymeal
Wheat:
Feb 22: Export Inspection at 10:00am
Feb 23: Cold Storage at 2:00pm
Beans:
Feb 25: Export Sales at 7:30am
Feb 28: Export Inspections at 10:00am – First Notice for March Chi, KC, MN wheat, corn, soybeans, soyoil, soymeal

down 0-1
down 1-3
down 2-3

Cattle:
Hogs:
US $:

up .190

Crude:

up .90

GRAINS

52 Week
High

464-0 on
07/14/15

52 Week
High

629-4 on
06/30/15

52 Week
High

1044-2 on
07/14/15

52 Week
Low

348-4 on
01/07/16

52 Week
Low

455-0 on
02/12/16

52 Week
Low

847-0 on
11/23/15

20 Day MA 366-5

20 Day MA 470-3

20 Day MA 875-3

50 Day MA 365-5

50 Day MA 474-1

50 Day MA 874-3

100 Day MA 375-1

100 Day MA 489-4

100 Day
MA

880-0

Corn: ---Night Session Close: May down 0’4 at 371’0 – Dec down 0’6 at 388’2
Opening the night at 371’2 and trading to a session low of 370’6, May corn’s 50 day moving average stands at 371’0 while trend line support is located near 369’0. Further support is
possible from the 10 day moving average at 368’2 while yesterday’s session low stands at 366’4 with the recent Feb-12 low set at 363’2. Posting a session high at 372’0, the recent
high from Feb-03 stands at 378’2 while the 376 region may offer some resistance as well. The 100 day moving average at 380’6 helps to reinforce the key 380 region.
Soybeans: ---Night Session Close: May down 2’6 at 882’4 – Nov down 2’6 at 890’0
Opening the night at 884’4, May set a session low at 882’0 during the night. Falling back below the 100 day moving average at 884’2, further moving average support is likely from
the 20 and 50 day at 878’0 while trend line support stands at 874’6 before reaching the recent Feb-09 low of 863’4. Posting a session high at 885’4, yesterday’s session high and

recent high stands at 887’0 while the Feb-02 high stands at 890’4.
Wheat: ---Night Session Close: May down 2’0 at 472’4 – Sept down 2’0 at 488’2
Starting the night at 474’6, support may be found in the 473 region and followed by the 10 day moving average at 468’0. Yesterday’s session low stands at 467’4 while a double
bottom remains at 460’4 before reaching the contract low of 459’2. Trading to a session high of 475’0 and taking out yesterday’s session high, the 20 day moving average stands at
475’2. Further resistance is likely from the 50 day moving average at 479’6.
News:
--- Brazil was hit was a credit rating reduction from Standard and Poor, pushing them deeper into junk bond territory. Falling from B+ to BB rating.
--- While ethanol margins are tight and forcing some producers to cut back and extending maintenance time, ethanol exports may be the shining light with high hopes on foreign
consumers. However, ethanol industry leaders see things getting worse before summer driving season begins.
--- The major US nitrogen fertilizer producer, CF Industries, reported smaller than expected quarterly profits as margins shrink due to falling demand and commodity prices.
--- Indonesia’s crude palm oil production fell for the 5th month as dry conditions from El Nino impact the world’s largest producer.
--- The Baltic Dry Index rose again for the 4th day in a row now at 313.
--- South American weather is seen as improving for Brazil and Argentina and allows for normal harvest activity to resume, likely to again add pressure to grains.
--- On Wednesday, the traditional funds bought 5,000 soybeans, 4,000 soyoil, 9,000 corn, 4,000 wheat and sold 2,000 soymeal. They are estimated to be net short 57,500 soybeans,
47,8000 soymeal, 85,000 corn, 74,000 wheat and estimated to be net long 49,900 soyoil.
--- USDA announces sale of 106,162 MT of corn sold to Costa Rica for 15/16
--- Brian

For more information, questions, or comments feel free to contact us or follow our team on Twitter:
Ted Seifried -- (312) 277-0113 -- tseifried@zaner.com -- @TheTedSpread
Tim Hackbarth -- (312) 277-0110 -- thackbarth@zaner.com -- @AgHedgingone
Brian Grossman -- (312) 277-0119 -- bgrossman@zaner.com -- @AgHedgeGrossman

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MEATS

52 Week
High

156.300 on
06/10/15

52 Week
High

214.150 on
06/11/15

52 Week
High

72.975 on
05/12/15

52 Week
Low

121.975 on
12/17/15

52 Week
Low

143.200 on
12/17/15

52 Week
Low

53.975 on
11/17/15

20 Day MA 133.625

20 Day MA 161.093

20 Day MA 64.460

50 Day MA 131.840

50 Day MA 159.532

50 Day MA 61.282

100 Day

100 Day

100 Day

134.409

168.726

62.496

MA

MA

MA

Although cattle/feeder cattle futures closed well off of highs, they still posted gains on top of Tuesdays limit up move and are taking back most of last week’s losses.
Feeder futures closed over $2.00 off of session highs but still posted triple digit gain on the day. Front-month March peaked at $158.00 and closed at $155.70 (up $1.20 on the day).
Fat cattle had a quieter session but still managed a .70 gain. February price of $133.65 is at top end of last week’s cash. Eight trading sessions left before Feb contract expires.
Cash has yet to develop. Still seeing bids at $131/$132 with asking prices of $135. Traded a wide range of $128-$134 week ago.
Feeder Index up .01 to 156.95.
For Friday's USDA Cattle-on-Feed report, traders see January placements at 99.6% of last year and Marketings in January at 97.8%. This would leave February 1st On-feed supply
at 99.8% of last year. Report comes out at 2:00 CT.
Seasonally, beef prices remain weak until March but some analysts saying they see the recent run lower as overdone and this week’s bounce is correction.
Wednesday midday boxed beef: Choice up $1.44 to $215.93. This is down from 218.03 prior week and lowest beef mkt since end of 2015.
The turn higher in the U.S. stock market could help consumer confidence if sustained but those saying demand will pick up off of two higher days are getting a bit ahead of
themselves.
Grain prices are showing a little strength this week as managed money is seen lifting some short positions. The real test will be when/if we get back to previous resistance where we
failed last time around.
Technical traders loving the current retrace has helped underpin pricing.
Still viewing bumps on the board as hedging opportunities.
Tim

LINKS

Cash Grain Bids

US Weather

South American Weather

In this newsletter we do not email specific trade recommendations. As each client's situation is unique, we craft strategies to fit our individual client's needs. Please feel free to call us
at 312-277-0113 for a personalized recommendation.