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APMA 3100 – EXAM 1 - Chapters 1, 2 and 3

September 26, 2014

STUDENT NAME: ___________________________________________________________
Answer each question in the space provided. Please write clearly and legibly. If the work is deemed
illegible by the grader then it will be marked wrong. Show all work in order to receive full credit and
clearly identify your final answer. You may use a basic scientific calculator (no graphing calculator
allowed and no calculator that does calculus). Material from Appendix A of the text is provided and
may be used as needed. No other sources may be used.
Please sign the pledge:
On my honor as a student, I have neither given nor received aid on this exam.
Signed: __________________________________________

1.] A geological study indicates that an exploratory oil well should strike oil with probability 0.35. Assume
that the drillings are independent of each other.
a.] (5 points) What is the probability that the third oil strike comes on the sixth well drilled?

b.] (5 points) Find the mean and variance of the number of wells that must be drilled if the company wants
to set up five producing wells.

] (2 points) At least 2 senior officers? . In how many ways can a 4-officer committee be formed so that it is composed of: a.] (2 points) 3 senior officers and 1 junior officer? d.] (2 points) 4 senior officers? c.] (2 points) 2 senior and 2 junior officers? e.] (2 points) Any 4 officers? b. An ad hoc legislative committee is to be formed.2.] A company has 7 senior and 5 junior officers.

a.3] Suppose that three defective circuits have been included in a shipment of twelve circuits. what is the probability that the second defective circuit is found on the second or third test? .] (5 points) Given that exactly one of the three defective circuits has been located in the first test.] (5 points) What is the probability that the second defective circuit is found on the third test? b. The recipient of the circuits begins to test the twelve circuits one at a time.

] (4 points) Are C and DC independent. c. Furthermore. a. and D are events with the following probabilities: P[A U B] = 5/8. while C and D are independent. P[A] = 3/8. A and B are disjoint. Show why or why not. C. B. P[C] = 1/2 and P[C ∩ D] = 1/3.] In an experiment A. b.4. d.] (2 points) Find P[A ∩ BC].] (2 points) Find P[CC ∩ DC]. .] (2 points) Find P[C|D].

.] Let the random variable W have PMF PW(w) = Define the random variable T = W2 – 3. -1.] (5 points) Find the CDF FT(t). 3 otherwise . 2 w = 1. b. 0. a.5.] (5 points) Find the PMF PT(t).2 0 w = -2.15 .

] Suppose small aircraft arrive at a certain airport at a rate of twelve per hour and that the random variable X representing the number of arrivals is a Poisson random variable.6. a.] (5 points) What is the probability that between 16 and 18 (inclusive) small aircraft arrive during a 90minute period? b.] (5 points) What are the expected value and standard deviation of the number of small aircraft that arrive during a 150-minute period? .

a.] Let X be binomial(5.] (3 points) Find PX|B(x) when B = {X ≥ µx}.] (2 points) Find E[X|B].0. d.] (3 points) Find P[µx – σx ≤ X ≤ µx + σx]. b.] (2 points) Find the mean and standard deviation of X.7). . c.7.