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SB 78/2014

17 October 2014

Key economic statistics October 2014


% of pop aged 16-64

Employment rate

80

The employment rate in Wales, as


estimated by the Labour Force Survey,
was 68.8 per cent of those aged 16-64
during June to August 2014, down
from 70.0 per cent a year earlier.
The UK rate for the same period was
73.0 per cent, up from 71.5 per cent a
year earlier.

75
UK
70
65
Wales
60

Unemployment rate

% of economically active
10

The unemployment rate in Wales was


6.5 per cent of the economically active
population during June to August
2014, down from 8.0 per cent a year
ago.

8
UK

Jun to Aug 13

Jun to Aug 11

Jun to Aug 09

Jun to Aug 07

Jun to Aug 05

Jun to Aug 03

Jun to Aug 01

4
Jun to Aug 99

The UK rate for the same period was


6.0 per cent, down from 7.7 per cent a
year ago.

Wales

Summary statistics: June to August 2014 (seasonally adjusted)


Wales
Level
(000s)
Employment

(1)

ILO unemployment

(2)

Economically active

(1)

Economically inactive
Claimant count
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)

(4)

(3)

Change
on year

UK

Rate
(%)

Change
on year

Rate
(%)

New data released this month:

Change
on year

1,363

-32

68.8

-1.3

73.0

1.5

94

-27

6.5

-1.5

6.0

-1.7

1,457

-58

73.7

-2.5

77.8

0.2

503

47

26.3

2.5

22.2

-0.2

52.9

-17

3.7

-1.2

2.8

-1.2

Economic indices (page 8)

Levels are for those aged 16 and over, rates are for those aged 16-64.
Levels and rates are for those aged 16 and over. The rate is a proportion of the economically active.
Levels and rates are for those aged 16-64.
Data relate to September 2014 and are provisional.

Statistician: Henry Small


Next update: 14 November 2014

Tel: 029 2082 5017


Email: economic.stats@wales.gsi.gov.uk
Twitter: www.twitter.com/statisticswales | www.twitter.com/ystadegaucymru

New monthly information released this month is summarised below.


The Labour Force Survey estimates for the 3 months to August 2014 show:
The employment rate of people aged 16 to 64 in Wales was 68.8 per cent, down from 70.0 per
cent a year earlier. The UK average was 73.0 per cent.
The ILO unemployment rate in Wales was 6.5 per cent of the economically active, down
from 8.0 per cent in the same period a year earlier. The UK average was 6.0 per cent.
The economic inactivity rate of people aged 16 to 64 in Wales was 26.3 per cent, up from 23.8
per cent in the same period a year earlier. The UK average was 22.2 per cent.
The claimant count rate in September 2014 for Wales was 3.7 per cent of the workforce, down from 4.9
per cent in September 2013 (UK rate 2.8 per cent).
The non-seasonally adjusted claimant count rate in September 2014 for West Wales and the Valleys
was 2.7 per cent of the resident population aged 16 to 64. The rate for East Wales stood at 2.6 per cent.
Other new information released this month is summarised below:
The Index of Production for the four quarters to 2014 quarter 2 for Wales rose by 0.6 per cent
compared with the previous four quarters. The UK index rose by 2.0 per cent over the same period.
The Index of Construction for the four quarters to 2014 quarter 2 for Wales rose by 1.7 per cent
compared with the previous four quarters. The UK index rose by 5.9 per cent over the same period.
The Index of Manufacturing for the four quarters to 2014 quarter 2 for Wales rose by 3.0 per cent
compared with the previous four quarters. The UK index rose by 2.4 per cent over the same period.
The Index of Market Services for the four quarters to 2014 quarter 2 for Wales rose by 0.7 per cent
compared with the previous four quarters. The UK index rose by 3.2 per cent over the same period.

Contents
The charts in this bulletin are arranged as follows:
page 3: employment;
page 4: unemployment;
page 5: economic inactivity and out of work benefit claimant rates;
page 6: labour market indicators for NUTS2 areas;
page 7: employee and self employment jobs;
page 8: Indices of Production; Index of Construction; and Index of Market Services
page 9: exports, VAT/PAYE enterprise births and VAT/PAYE enterprises; and
page 10: average earnings, gross value added and gross disposable household income per head.
Detailed background notes and key quality information are given on pages 11 to 15.

New data

Employment Rate: Persons


Percentage of those aged 16-64

There were 1.363 million people in


employment in Wales in June to August
2014, down 32,000 (2.3 per cent) from the
same period a year earlier. This is a rate of
68.8 per cent of those aged 16-64, down
from 70.0 per cent in the same period a year
earlier.

80
75

UK

70
Wales

65
60
Jun-Aug 10

Jun-Aug 11

Jun-Aug 12

Next update: 14 Nov 2014

New data

Jun-Aug 13

Jun-Aug 14

Source: Labour Force Survey, NS

Employment Rate: Men


Percentage of those aged 16-64

There were 716,000 men in employment in


Wales in June to August 2014, down 27,000
(3.7 per cent) from the same period a year
earlier. This is a rate of 72.1 per cent of those
aged 16-64, down from 74.4 per cent in the
same period a year earlier.

80
UK
75
Wales
70
65
60
Jun-Aug 10

Jun-Aug 11

Jun-Aug 12

Next update: 14 Nov 2014


New data

The total number in employment in the UK


over the same period rose by 736,000 (2.4
per cent) to 30.8 million. This is a rate of 73.0
per cent of those aged 16-64, up from 71.5
per cent a year earlier.

Jun-Aug 13

Jun-Aug 14

Source: Labour Force Survey, NS

The number of men in employment in the


UK over the same period rose by 367,000
(2.3 per cent) to 16.4 million. This is a rate of
77.9 per cent of those aged 16-64, up from
76.4 per cent a year earlier.

Employment Rate: Women


Percentage of those aged 16-64

There were 647,000 women in employment


in Wales in June to August 2014, down 5,000
(0.7 per cent) from a year earlier. This is a
rate of 65.4 per cent of those aged 16-64,
down from 65.7 per cent in the same period
a year earlier.

80
75
70

UK

65
Wales
60
Jun-Aug 10

Jun-Aug 11

Jun-Aug 12

Next update: 14 Nov 2014

Jun-Aug 13

Jun-Aug 14

Source: Labour Force Survey, NS

The number of women in employment in


the UK stood at 14.4 million, up 368,000 (2.6
per cent) over the year. This is a rate of 68.1
per cent of those aged 16-64, up from 66.7
per cent a year earlier.

Public sector employment*


Percentage of population

There were 315,000 people employed in the


public sector in Wales in 2014 quarter 2,
down 19,000 (5.7 per cent) from a year
earlier. This is a rate of 10.2 per cent of the
population, down 0.6 percentage points
from a year earlier.

12
11
Wales
10
9
UK
8
2010 Q2

2011 Q2

2012 Q2

Next update: 19 Dec 2014


* not seasonally adjusted
RPSE Regional Public Sector Employment
NS = National Statistics

2013 Q2

2014 Q2

Source: RPSE, ONS

Public sector employment in the UK over


the same period fell by 282,000 (5.0 per cent)
to 5.4 million. This is a rate of 8.5 per cent of
the population, down 0.4 percentage points
from a year earlier.

ILO Unemployment Rates

New data

There were 94,000 people who were ILO


unemployed in Wales in June to August
2014, down 27,000 (22.0 per cent) from a
year earlier. This is a rate of 6.5 per cent of
the economically active population, down
from 8.0 per cent a year earlier.

Percentage of economically active


10
Wales

8
UK

4
Jun-Aug 10

Jun-Aug 11

Jun-Aug 12

Next update: 14 Nov 2014

Jun-Aug 13

Jun-Aug 14

Source: Labour Force Survey, NS

The number of ILO unemployed people in


the UK over the same period fell by 538,000
(21.4 per cent) to 2.0 million. This is a rate of
6.0 per cent of the economically active
population, down from 7.7 per cent a year
earlier.

Long-term ILO Unemployment Rates*


Percentage of all unemployed: 4 quarter rolling average
40
UK

35
Wales

30
25
20
y/e Jun 10

y/e Jun 11

y/e Jun 12

Next update: 19 Dec 2014

y/e Jun 13

y/e Jun 14

For the year ending 30 June 2014 the Annual


Population Survey (APS) estimates that
34,500 people in Wales were long-term ILO
unemployed (12 months or more), down
16.5 per cent over the year.
This represented 32.9 per cent of all those
unemployed in the year, down 1.7
percentage points over the year. The
equivalent UK rate was 35.8 per cent, down
0.1 percentage points over the year.

Source: LLFS/APS, NS

Youth ILO Unemployment Rates*


Percentage of economically active: 4 quarter rolling average
30

25

Wales

20

UK

15
10
y/e Jun 10

y/e Jun 11

y/e Jun 12

Next update: 19 Dec 2014


New data

y/e Jun 13

y/e Jun 14

For the year ending 30 June 2014 the APS


estimates that 42,200 people aged 16-24 in
Wales were ILO unemployed, down 9.9 per
cent over the year.
This represented 19.3 per cent of the
economically active in this age group, down
3.0 percentage points over the year. The
equivalent UK rate was 18.6 per cent, down
2.1 percentage points over the year.

Source: LLFS/APS, NS

Claimant Count Rates


Percentage of civilian workforce

The claimant count in Wales stood at 52,900


in September 2014, a rate of 3.7 per cent of
the workforce. Over the 12 months to
September 2014 it fell by 16,500 (23.8 per
cent).

6
Wales

5
4
UK

3
2
Sep-10

Sep-11

Next update: 14 Nov 2014

Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Source: Jobcentre Plus, NS

* not seasonally adjusted


NS = National Statistics

The UK claimant count stood at 951,900 in


September 2014, representing 2.8 per cent of
the workforce. Over the 12 months to
September 2014 it fell by 394,500 (29.3 per
cent).

New data

Economic Inactivity Rate: Persons


Percentage of those aged 16-64

There were 503,000 people who were


economically inactive in Wales in June to
August 2014, up 47,000 (10.2 per cent) from
a year earlier. This is a rate of 26.3 per cent
of those aged 16-64, up from 23.8 per cent
on the same period a year earlier.

35
30
Wales

25
20
15
Jun-Aug 10

UK

Jun-Aug 11

Jun-Aug12

Next update: 14 Nov 2014


New data

Jun-Aug 13

Jun-Aug 14

Source: Labour Force Survey, NS

The number who were economically


inactive in the UK over the same period fell
by 46,000 (0.5 per cent) to 9.0 million. This is
a rate of 22.2 per cent of those aged 16-64,
down from 22.4 per cent a year earlier.

Economic Inactivity Rate: Men


Percentage of those aged 16-64

There were 209,000 economically inactive


men in Wales in June to August 2014, up
29,000 (16.1 per cent) from a year earlier.
This is a rate of 22.0 per cent of those aged
16-64, up from 18.9 per cent a year earlier.

30
25
Wales
20

15
10
Jun-Aug 10

UK
Jun-Aug 11

Jun-Aug12

Next update: 14 Nov 2014


New data

Jun-Aug 13

Jun-Aug 14

The number of economically inactive men in


the UK over the same period rose by 28,000
(0.8 per cent) to 3.4 million. This is a rate of
16.7 per cent of those aged 16-64, up from
16.6 per cent a year earlier.

Source: Labour Force Survey, NS

Economic Inactivity Rate: Women


Percentage of those aged 16-64

There were 294,000 economically inactive


women in Wales in June to August 2014, up
18,000 (6.4 per cent) from a year earlier.
This is a rate of 30.6 per cent of those aged
16-64, up from 28.7 per cent in the same
period a year earlier.

35

Wales
30

UK

25
20
15
Jun-Aug 10

Jun-Aug 11

Jun-Aug12

Next update: 14 Nov 2014

Jun-Aug 13

Jun-Aug 14

Source: Labour Force Survey, NS

The number of economically inactive


women in the UK over the same period fell
by 74,000 (1.3 per cent) to 5.7 million. This
is a rate of 27.6 per cent of those aged 16-64,
down from 28.0 per cent a year earlier.

Out of Work Benefit Claimants*


Percentage of those aged 16-64

There were 260,600 people claiming out of


work benefits in Wales in February 2014,
down 18,200 (6.6 per cent) from a year
earlier. This is a rate of 13.5 per cent of those
aged 16-64, down from 14.4 per cent in the
same period a year earlier.

20
18
Wales
16
14
GB
12
10
Feb 2004

Feb 2006

Feb 2008

Feb 2010

Next update: 14 Nov 2014

Feb 2012

Feb 2014

Source: WPLS, DWP

WPLS Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study


* not seasonally adjusted
NS = National Statistics

The number claiming out of work benefits


in GB over the same period fell by 421,900
(9.1 per cent) to 4.2 million. This is a rate of
10.6 per cent of those aged 16-64, down
from 11.7 per cent a year earlier.

Employment Rate: NUTS2 areas*


4 quarter rolling average, percentage of those aged 16-64

For the year ending 30 June 2014 the


average employment level in West Wales
and the Valleys was up 17,900 (2.2 per cent)
over the year. For East Wales, the level was
up 15,500 (3.0 per cent) over the year.

75
East Wales
70
Wales
65
West Wales and the Valleys
60
y/e Jun 10

y/e Jun 11

y/e Jun 12

Next update: 19 Dec 2014

y/e Jun 13

y/e Jun 14

Over the same period, the employment rate


increased by 1.8 percentage points in both
West Wales and the Valleys and in East
Wales.

Source: LLFS/APS, NS

ILO Unemployment Rate: NUTS2 areas*


4 quarter rolling average, percentage of economically active

For the year ending 30 June 2014 the


average unemployment level in West Wales
and the Valleys was down 6,700 (8.7 per
cent) over the year. For East Wales the level
was down 7,900 (18.5 per cent) over the
year.

10
West Wales and the Valleys

Wales

8
East Wales
7
6
y/e Jun 10

y/e Jun 11

y/e Jun 12

Next update: 19 Dec 2014


New data

y/e Jun 13

y/e Jun 14

Source: LLFS/APS, NS

Over the same period, the unemployment


rate fell by 0.8 percentage points in West
Wales and the Valleys and fell by 1.5
percentage points in East Wales.

Claimant Count Rate: NUTS2 areas*

12 month rolling average, percentage of resident population


aged 16-64

The claimant count in West Wales and the


Valleys fell by 9,900 (25.3 per cent) over the
year to stand at 32,200 in September 2014, a
rate of 2.7 per cent of the resident
population aged 16-64.

5
West Wales and the Valleys

Wales

4
East Wales
3

2
y/e Sep 10

y/e Sep 11

y/e Sep 12

Next update: 14 Nov 2014

y/e Sep 13

y/e Sep 14

Source: Jobcentre Plus, NS

In East Wales, the claimant count was


19,200 in September 2014, down 5,200 (23.6
per cent) over the year. This is a rate of 2.6
per cent of the resident population aged 1664.

Economic Inactivity Rate: NUTS2 areas*


4 quarter rolling average, percentage of those aged 16-64

For the year ending 30 June 2014 the


economic inactivity level in West Wales and
the Valleys was down 16,200 (5.1 per cent)
over the year. For East Wales the level was
down 5,900 (3.4 per cent) over the year.

35
West Wales and the Valleys
30

25

Wales
East Wales

20
y/e Jun 10

y/e Jun 11

Next update: 19 Dec 2014

y/e Jun 12

y/e Jun 13

y/e Jun 14

Source: LLFS/APS, NS

* not seasonally adjusted


NS = National Statistics

Over the same period, the economic


inactivity rate fell by 1.3 percentage points
in West Wales and the Valleys and fell by
0.8 percentage points in East Wales.

Workforce Jobs
Index 1999=100
130

The number of workforce jobs in Wales rose


by 54,000 (4.0 per cent) between June 2013
and June 2014 to stand at 1.399 million.
Between June 1999 and June 2014 the
number of workforce jobs in Wales rose by
176,800 (14.5 per cent).

120
Wales

110
UK

100

90
Jun-98

Jun-02

Jun-06

Jun-10

Jun-14

Next update: 19 Dec 2014

The number of workforce jobs in the UK


rose by 1.1 million (3.5 per cent) to 33.3
million over the year and rose by 4.0 million
(13.9 per cent) since 1999.

Source: WFJ, NS

Workforce Jobs in Manufacturing


Index 1999=100

The number of workforce jobs in


manufacturing in Wales rose by 9,000
(6.8 per cent) between June 2013 and June
2014 to stand at 145,000 (10.3 per cent of all
workforce jobs compared to 17.2 per cent in
June 1999).

110
100

90

Wales

80
70
UK

60

50
Jun-98

Jun-02

Jun-06

Jun-10

Next update: 19 Dec 2014

Jun-14

Over the same period the number of


workforce jobs in manufacturing in the UK
rose by 49,000 (1.9 per cent) to 2.6 million
(7.8 per cent of all workforce jobs compared
to 14.1 per cent in June 1999).

Source: WFJ, NS

Self-employment Jobs
Index 1999=100

The LFS estimate of the number of


self-employment jobs in Wales rose by
25,000 (13.8 per cent) between June 2013 and
June 2014 to stand at 202,000 (14.5 per cent
of workforce jobs compared to 11.7 per cent
in June 1999).

160
150
140
Wales

130
120
UK

110
100
90
Jun-98

Jun-02

Next update: 19 Dec 2014

Jun-06

Jun-10

Jun-14

Source: WFJ, NS

WFJ = Workforce Jobs


NS = National Statistics

Over the same period the estimate of the


number of self-employment jobs in the UK
stood at 4.5 million, up 384,000 (9.3 per cent)
over the year (13.6 per cent of workforce
jobs compared to 11.2 per cent in June 1999).

New data

Index of Production
Index 2011=100

Production output in Wales for the four


quarters ending 2014 quarter 2 rose by 0.6
per cent compared with the previous four
quarters. The UK index rose by 2.0 per cent
over the same period.

140
130
120
Wales

110
100

UK

90

80
Q2 99

Q2 01

Q2 03

Q2 05

Next update: 23 Jan 2015

Q2 07

Q2 09

Q2 11

Q2 13

Production output for 2014 quarter 2 rose by


4.7 per cent compared with the previous
quarter. The UK index rose by 0.2 per cent
over the same period.

Source: Welsh Government, NS

Index of Manufacturing

New data

Index 2011=100
140
130
120

110

UK

100

90
80
Q2 99

Wales
Q2 01

Q2 03

Q2 05

Next update: 23 Jan 2015

Q2 07

Q2 09

Q2 11

Q2 13

Source: Welsh Government, NS

Index 2011=100

Construction output for the four quarters


ending 2014 quarter 2 rose by 1.7 per cent
compared with the previous four quarters.
UK output rose by 5.9 per cent over the
same period.

150
140
130
120

Wales

110
100

UK

90
Q2 01

Q2 03

Q2 05

Next update: 23 Jan 2015


New data

Manufacturing output for 2014 quarter 2


was unchanged compared with the previous
quarter. The UK index rose by 0.5 per cent
over the same period.

Index of Construction

New data

80
Q2 99

Manufacturing output in Wales for the four


quarters ending 2014 quarter 2 rose by 3.0
per cent compared with the previous four
quarters. UK output rose by 2.4 per cent
over the same period.

Q2 07

Q2 09

Q2 11

Q2 13

Construction output for 2014 quarter 2 rose


by 4.5 per cent compared with the previous
quarter. The UK index rose by 0.7 per cent
over the same period.

Source: Welsh Government, NS

Index of Market Services


Index 2011=100

The Index of Market Services for Wales for


the four quarters ending 2014 quarter 2 rose
by 0.7 per cent compared with the previous
four quarters. The UK index rose by 3.2 per
cent over the same period

120

Wales

110
100

UK

90
80
70
60
Q2 99

Q2 01

Q2 03

Next update: 23 Jan 2015

Q2 05

Q2 07

Q2 09

Q2 11

Q2 13

Source: Welsh Government, NS

NS = National Statistics

The Index of Market Services for 2014


quarter 2 rose by 1.3 per cent compared with
the previous quarter. The UK rose by 1.4 per
cent over the same period.

Value of Exports
Index 1999=100

For the four quarters up to and including 2014


quarter 2, the value of exports of goods from
Wales rose by 5.4 per cent on the previous four
quarters and rose by 123.6 per cent over 1999.
Exports to EU countries accounted for 44 per
cent of the total in the latest four quarters,
unchanged from in the previous four quarters.

260
240

Wales

220

200
180
160

UK

140

120
100
80
Q2 1999 Q2 2001 Q2 2003 Q2 2005 Q2 2007 Q2 2009 Q2 2011 Q2 2013

Next update: 19 Dec 2014

Source: HMRC, NS

The value of exports for the total of all UK


countries and English regions for the four
quarters up to and including 2014 quarter 2
fell by 2.7 per cent over the previous four
quarters and rose by 74.4 per cent over 1999.
Exports to EU countries accounted for 49 per
cent of the total in the latest four quarters, up
from 48 per cent in the previous four quarters.

VAT/PAYE Registered Enterprise Births


Births per 10,000 population aged 16-64

In Wales there were 43 VAT/PAYE


registered enterprise births per 10,000
people aged 16-64 in 2012, compared to 42
in 2011. The UK had 66 VAT/PAYE births
per 10,000 people aged 16-64 in 2012,
compared to 64 in 2011.

75

65
UK

55

Registrations per head of 16-64 population


in Wales have steadily decreased between
2004 and 2010, with small increases in 2011
and 2012.

Wales

45

35
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Next update: Dec 2014

Not all businesses are registered for VAT/PAYE.


Many small businesses trading below the
VAT/PAYE threshold will not be included.

Source: Business Demography, NS

VAT/PAYE Registered Enterprises


Enterprise stock per 10,000 population aged 16-64

In Wales there were 455 VAT/PAYE


registered enterprises per 10,000 people
aged 16-64 in 2012, a fall of 1 over the year.

600
UK

550

The UK had 580 VAT/PAYE registered


enterprises per 10,000 people aged 16-64 in
2012, up 8 over the year.

500

450

Wales

400
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Next update: Dec 2014

Source: Business Demography, NS

NS = National Statistics

Not all businesses are registered for VAT/PAYE.


Many small businesses trading below the
VAT/PAYE threshold will not be included. The
estimates for Wales only include those
enterprises headquartered in Wales.

Average Earnings
Wales as a percentage of UK
95

Workplace-based average gross weekly


earnings of full-time employees in Wales
rose by 3.5 per cent between April 2012 and
April 2013, above that for the UK (2.1 per
cent). Residence-based earnings in Wales
increased by 3.1 per cent over the same
period (UK up 2.1 per cent).

90
Residence-based

85

Workplace-based

80
1999

2001

2003

2005

Next update: Dec 2014

2007

2009

2011

2013

Source: Annual Survey of Hours


and Earnings, ONS, NS

In April 2013, average workplace-based


gross weekly earnings of full-time
employees in Wales stood at 539.0, 86.9 per
cent of the UK average. On a residence
basis, average weekly earnings in Wales
stood at 547.2, 88.2 per cent of the UK
average.

Gross Value Added / Gross Disposable


Household Income per Head
Wales as a percentage of UK

In 2012, workplace Gross Value Added


(GVA) for Wales was 47.3 billion or 15,401
per head of population. This was 72.3 per
cent of the average for the total of all UK
regions, the highest since 2007.

100
95
90

85

Wales had the lowest level of GVA per head


in the UK regions, behind the North East
and Northern Ireland, where GVA per head
was 75.6 per cent and 75.7 per cent of the
UK average respectively.

GDHI

80
75

70
GVA

65
60
1997

1999

Next update: Dec 2014

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

Source: Regional Accounts, NS

Gross disposable household income (GDHI)


in 2012 for Wales was 45.0 billion or
14,623 per head of population. This
represented 87.1 per cent of the UK figure,
up from 86.6 per cent in 2011.
GDHI per head in Wales is closer to the UK
average than GVA per head, and is higher
than that for the North East, Yorkshire and
the Humber and Northern Ireland.

NS = National Statistics

10

Changes to this months bulletin and planned changes for future bulletins
This months bulletin
Revisions to Labour Force Survey estimates: The ONS have revised estimates derived from the Labour
Force Survey (including estimates of employment, unemployment and economic inactivity) as a result of
taking on board population estimates based on the 2011 Census and a review of the seasonal adjustment
process. Estimates have been revised back to June to August 2001. The article 'Revisions to Labour Force
Survey estimates due to re-weighting to the Census 2011 population' published on 23 September 2014
provides indicative details of the back revisions to the headline estimates of employment,
unemployment and economic inactivity. ONS will update this article as soon as possible.
Next months bulletin
On 17 December 2013, the ONS published an article explaining the decision to reclassify Network Rail
from the private sector to the public sector from April 2004. This decision results from new guidance in
the 2010 European System of Accounts (ESA10). The article explained that the classification decision
would be implemented from 1 September 2014 when ESA10 came into force. Consequently, Network
Rail will be reclassified from the private sector to the public sector in the estimates of Average Weekly
Earnings (AWE) in next months release, resulting in revisions to the AWE estimates back to 2002.
Future bulletins
Introduction of Universal Credit: The Pathfinder for Universal Credit started on 29 April 2013 with the
introduction of this new benefit in one Jobcentre Plus office (Ashton under Lyne). This has been
extended to further Jobcentre Plus offices across Great Britain.
By 12 June 2014 (the Claimant Count date for June 2014), Universal Credit had been introduced
in 10 Jobcentre Plus offices across Great Britain.
By 10 July 2014 (the Claimant Count date for July 2014), Universal Credit had been introduced in
a further 15 Jobcentre Plus offices in the North West region of England.
By 8 August 2014 (the Claimant Count date for August 2014), Universal Credit had been
introduced in a further 14 Jobcentre Plus offices in the North West region of England.
Between the August Claimant Count date (8 August) and the September Claimant Count date (11
September) no further Jobcentre Plus offices had introduced Universal Credit.
Universal Credit had therefore been introduced in 39 Jobcentre Plus offices across Great Britain
by 11 September 2014, of which 33 were in the North West region.
More detailed information is available at List of Jobcentre Plus Offices (76.1 Kb Pdf) under
Universal Credit on the website.
Universal Credit will replace a number of means-tested benefits including the means-tested element of
Jobseekers Allowance (JSA). It will not replace contributory based JSA.
The Claimant Count measures the number of people claiming benefits principally for the reason
of being unemployed. Since October 1996 it has been a count of the number of people claiming JSA.
Following a consultation in 2012 by ONS, it was decided that, with the introduction of Universal Credit,
the Claimant Count would include:
people claiming contribution-based JSA (which is not affected by the introduction of Universal
Credit),
people claiming income-based JSA during the transition period while this benefit is being
gradually phased out, and
people claiming Universal Credit who are not earning and who are subject to a full set of labour
market jobseeker requirements, that is required to be actively seeking work and available to start
work.
The Claimant Count estimates from May 2013 onwards, published in this Statistical Bulletin, do not
include claimants of Universal Credit. ONS will include jobseeker Universal Credit claims in the
Claimant Count statistics as soon as possible.

11

Policy/Operational Context
This bulletin is a compendium publication used to bring together the latest key statistics relating to the
Welsh economy and labour market, mainly in the context of the UK economy and labour market. The
bulletin is updated each month, so that it is based on the latest version of each of the datasets it includes
(see dates given in each of the charts for the next update dates). The headline LFS estimates in the
bulletin are published by ONS in their Labour Market Statistical Bulletin
(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/taxonomy/index.html?nscl=Labour+Market) which includes headline
figures for Wales as a whole. This bulletin produced by The Welsh Government provides a more
detailed breakdown of the Wales data within the ONS bulletin and presents those estimates alongside
other headline estimates for the economy and labour market for Wales. These statistics are used by the
Welsh Government to monitor the headline statistics for the Welsh economy as well as providing
comparisons to the UK economy. The bulletin includes some of the measures contained in the Programme
for Government, namely the employment rate, Gross Value Added and Gross Disposable Household
Income. This bulletin is also used by other public sector organisations, businesses, academia and private
individuals as a means of identifying the key trends in the headline economic and labour market
statistics for Wales. Our 2012 user consultation provides more information on how our outputs are used:
http://wales.gov.uk/consultations/statistics/economicoutputs/?status=closed
The bulletin is the main vehicle for the publication of results for the Welsh labour market from the
Labour Force Survey (LFS), as produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), regional public
sector employment (page 3) and also for information from Jobcentre plus on the numbers of claimants of
unemployment related benefits, or claimant count and out of work benefit claimants (pages 4 to 6). The
bulletin also provides Welsh data on the numbers of employee and self-employment jobs as published
by the ONS (see page 7). Further information on these datasets is given later in these notes.
In addition to these datasets, the bulletin brings together the further datasets, for which the Welsh
Government produces separate publications, including short term output indices, exports data, earnings
data, VAT/PAYE enterprises data and regional accounts data. Further information about these
additional datasets can be found in the separate publications themselves, all available from the following
page on the Welsh Government website:
http://wales.gov.uk/statistics-and-research/?topic=Business+and+economy

Notes
Some of data given in this bulletin are presented as index numbers. Index numbers take the data for
each time period and divide them by the figure for the reference period, and multiply the result by 100.
A figure of above 100 for a given time period then indicates that the figure is higher than that for the
reference period, whilst a figure of below 100 indicates that it is lower than that for the reference period.
Data on workforce jobs, self-employment jobs and exports are presented as indices referenced to 1999 =
100. The indices of production, manufacturing and construction and the index of market services are
each referenced to 2011 = 100.
For the series shown on pages 3 to 8, most are seasonally adjusted, and this is to be assumed unless
stated otherwise. None of the data shown on pages 9 and 10 are seasonally adjusted.
The Labour Force Survey (LFS) data at both a regional and sub-regional level used in the charts on pages
3 to 6 are adjusted to take account of the results of the 2011 Census of Population. The seasonally
adjusted LFS data used on pages 3 to 5 also take account of the latest mid-year population estimates as
released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

12

95% confidence intervals for Labour Force Survey figures: Wales, June to August 2014
Numbers in thousands
Estimates
Lower
limit

Estimate

Quarterly changes
Upper
limit

Lower
limit

Quarterly
change

Annual changes

Upper
limit

Lower
limit

Annual
change

Upper
limit

Employment level

1,326

1,363

1,400

-60

-12

36

-81

-32

18

Employment rate

66.9%

68.8%

70.6%

-2.7%

-0.3%

2.1%

-3.8%

-1.3%

1.3%

78

94

110

-24

-3

19

-50

-27

-3

Unemployment rate

5.3%

6.5%

7.6%

-1.6%

-0.1%

1.3%

-3.1%

-1.5%

0.1%

Economically active level

1,422

1,457

1,493

-60

-14

32

-105

-58

-11

71.9%

73.7%

75.5%

-2.7%

-0.4%

1.9%

-4.8%

-2.5%

-0.2%

459

503

547

-49

65

-11

47

104

Unemployment level

Economic activity rate


Economically inactive level

Key quality information: Labour Force Survey and claimant count


The main LFS is a quarterly sample survey of around 60,000 households living at private addresses in
the UK. Each quarters LFS sample of 60,000 private households is made up of 5 waves, each of
approximately 12,000 households. Each wave is interviewed in 5 successive quarters, such that in any
one quarter, one wave will be receiving their first interview, one wave their second, and so on, with one
wave receiving their fifth and final interview. As a result, there is an 80 per cent overlap in the samples
for successive quarters. Households are interviewed face-to-face when first included in the survey and
by telephone thereafter. For the first wave in Wales the response rate in the main LFS is around 80 per
cent, with around 80 per cent of these remaining by the fifth wave.
The main LFS is based on a detailed questionnaire and hence provides for a large dataset, although there
are some limitations to its use, particularly at a sub-regional level due to sample size constraints. Its
primary use is to provide labour market information for the UK, including levels and rates for
employment, unemployment and economic activity / inactivity. The sample size is sufficient to provide
estimates of reasonable quality at UK country and English region level within the UK, from which ONS
publish a monthly set of releases for each UK country and English region - see
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/subnational-labour/regional-labour-market-statistics/index.html.
It is the data from the Welsh release that is used to compare the Welsh labour market with that for the
UK as a whole in this bulletin, on pages 3 to 5.
As the LFS is a sample survey, the results taken from it are subject to sampling variability. The ranges
shown for the Labour Force Survey data (as set out in the table above) represent 95 per cent confidence
intervals for the Wales data about the estimates for each given indicator. This means that in 95 per cent
of samples, the range given would contain the exact value.
The Annual Local Labour Force Survey (LLFS) (or Welsh Local Labour Force Survey (WLLFS) in Wales)
is an annual sample survey of households living at private addresses in the UK. The annual survey uses
results from those sampled for the main quarterly LFS, but do not exactly match annual averages
derived from the 4 quarterly datasets in each year due to differences in the sampling structure. Since
2001, additional persons have been sampled on an annual basis to provide a more robust (boosted)
annual dataset across the UK, with estimates subject to much lower sampling variability. For Wales, the
data are now based on an enhanced sample (around 350 per cent larger) compared to earlier years.
Since 2004, the annual LFS data have been used to construct the Annual Population Survey (APS), which
provides a four-quarter rolling average of labour market information, updated quarterly, based on these
boosted samples. These data are used to produce the sub-regional estimates for Wales, as given on page
6 of this bulletin.

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The additional persons sampled in the LLFS/APS are based on four waves, over four years of the
survey. For the first wave, the response rate in Wales is around 75 per cent, with around 80 per cent of
these remaining by the fourth wave.
There are some minor differences between the results from the LLFS/APS datasets and the main LFS
datasets, probably arising from the different sampling structures employed in each element. But for this
Bulletin, the Office for National Statistics has reweighted the main LFS to take account of the 2011
Census. The APS data will be revised later this year to take account of the revised mid-year estimates
back to 2002 following the 2011 census. This means that the detailed labour market statistics in this
Bulletin are based different population estimates to the headline estimates in this bulletin.
There are two different measures of unemployment used in official UK statistics, namely the headline
International Labour Organisation (ILO) measure recorded by the LFS and the claimant count measure.
Each is subject to advantages and disadvantages.
The headline ILO measure is a count of those who are out of work and want a job, or have actively
sought work in the last 4 weeks and are available to start work in the next two weeks; plus those who
are out of work, have found a job and are waiting to start in the next 2 weeks. It is the broader measure
of unemployment used around the world. However, being sourced from a survey, the results are
sample-based estimates subject to sampling variability, i.e. the true value for any measure lies in a range
about the estimated value. This range is wider as the detail in the data increases, for example Wales data
are subject to higher variability than UK data (the variablility around the Wales estimate is shown
above).
The claimant count is a count of all those claiming unemployment related benefits (currently Jobseekers
Allowance). As such it excludes those who are unemployed who are not eligible to claim, and those
who do not wish to claim. However, the advantage of the claimant count measure is that it is a count of
all claimants and is not subject to any sampling variability. It can therefore be disaggregated to very
high levels of detail, and in particular, changes measured over the short term are more robust than for
the headline unemployment measure.
Key quality information: Regional Public Sector Employment
In 2005, ONS, in collaboration with other government departments and the devolved administrations
implemented major improvements to public sector employment (PSE) estimates. Standard definitions
for public sector employment across all departmental statistics were agreed and a single definitive set of
quarterly PSE estimates introduced. A new Quarterly Public Sector Employment Survey (QPSES) was
established. ONS publishes official PSE estimates each quarter, as National Statistics in the form of a
Statistical Bulletin, approximately 11 weeks after the period to which they refer.
The public sector comprises central government, local government and public corporations as defined
for the UK National Accounts. ONS produces the United Kingdoms National Accounts. The National
Accounts are an internationally comparable accounting framework that describes the activities in a
national economy. The relevant international manuals are the System of National Accounts 1993(SNA93)
and the European System of Accounts 1995 (ESA95). As part of the process of producing the National
Accounts, ONS decides on the classification of institutions and transactions within the economy.
The public sector employment estimates relate to the number of people employed according to returns
from relevant organisations, but they include a number of workers with a second job in the public sector
whose main job is in the private sector or in a separate public sector organisation.
English further education colleges and sixth form college corporations have been classified to the private
sector with effect from 1 April 2012 along with Royal Mail PLC moving into the private sector in Q4 2013
and Lloyds Banking Group returning to the private sector in Q1 2014. To allow for comparisons over
time, the UK data excludes these re-classifications (table 6a in the ONS release
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/pse/public-sector-employment/index.html ).

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Key quality information: Out of Work Benefit Claimants


The Department of Work and Pensions (DWP) produce a quarterly snapshot of benefit claimants at
particular points in time based on 100% of claimants so the data are not subject to any sampling error.
Data are for the number of people aged 16 to 64 who are claiming one or more key out of work benefits
which is the total number of people assigned to the following statistical groups: Jobseeker's Allowance,
Employment and Support Allowance (ESA) and Incapacity Benefit, Lone Parent and Other (which
includes those claiming Other Income Support (including IS Disability Premium) or Pension Credit.
The aim of the Statistical Group typology is to present each person by the main reasons why they are
claiming benefit. Each client is classified just once. Benefits are arranged hierarchically and claimants are
assigned to the top most benefit which they receive. Thus a person who is a lone parent and receives
Incapacity Benefit would be classified as incapacity benefits. For this reason the group lone parent, for
example, will not contain all lone parents claiming Income Support. Some will be included in the
incapacity benefits group instead. Data are not seasonally adjusted so any comparisons should be made
year on year.
Key quality information: ONS Workforce Jobs estimates
The ONS produce estimates of workforce jobs by industry and UK country / English region sourced
from their Short Term Employment Surveys (STES). The total numbers of employee jobs from this
source can then be added to estimates of self-employed jobs sourced from the main LFS along with data
on government supported trainees and HM forces to provide a count of all workforce jobs in each UK
country / English region. ONS publish these data quarterly, with some of the elements of these series
for Wales provided on page 7 of this bulletin.
Jobs information differ from the LFS employment estimates for a number of reasons, the most obvious
being that the latter is a count of persons working, and the former the jobs they hold, and persons with
two jobs will be counted once in the employment estimates but twice in the jobs estimates. There are
other differences, such as the effect of commuting between areas and differences in the sources used and
their coverage (the LFS is a household based survey, whilst the STES is an employer based survey).
Whilst the ONS workforce jobs series is available quarterly, the data are not broken down below UK
country / English region level and so the series does not provide for sub-Wales estimates. Prior to the
redevelopment of the series in July 2010 the ONS did not publish workforce jobs by industry and region
either. To address this, the Welsh Government produces a separate bulletin based on LLFS/APS data
and other sources, providing both industry and sub-Wales detail in respect of jobs in Wales. These
estimates are only available on an annual basis and are thus not included in this bulletin to avoid
confusion with the ONS estimates. However, as they are primarily based on LLFS/APS data, they are
more consistent in terms of coverage with the headline measures of employment and can be found at:
http://wales.gov.uk/statistics-and-research/?topic=Business+and+economy
Revisions
Where the data is not from the Welsh Government, we follow the revisions policy of the individual
Government department. As the majority of the data in this release is from the ONS, below is the ONS
revisions policy for labour market statistics: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/methodquality/specific/labour-market/articles-and-reports/labour-market-statistics-revisions-policy.pdf .
For data from our own outputs, we follow Welsh Government policy which can be found at:
http://wales.gov.uk/statistics-and-research/about/statement-of-compliance/revisions-errorspostponements/
Accessing the data
Much of the data behind the charts shown in this bulletin can be found on StatsWales (a free-to-use
service that allows visitors to view, manipulate, create and download tables from the most detailed
official data on Wales). Please select the relevant topic at the navigation screen of the following site:
https://statswales.wales.gov.uk/Catalogue/Business-Economy-and-Labour-Market

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The Headline Statistics and Statistical bulletin are available on the Welsh Government Internet site at:
http://wales.gov.uk/statistics-and-research/?topic=Business+and+economy
Data Sources and Quality
We have published a comprehensive data sources guide lists which provides a summary of all the main
official data sources used by the Economic and Labour Market Statistics branch as well as useful links.
The guide can be found at: http://wales.gov.uk/statistics-and-research/economic-labour-marketstatistics-guide-data-sources-useful-links/
National Statistics
The United Kingdom Statistics Authority has designated these statistics as National Statistics, in
accordance with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 and signifying compliance with the
Code of Practice for Official Statistics.
Designation can be broadly interpreted to mean that the statistics:
meet identified user needs;
are well explained and readily accessible;
are produced according to sound methods, and
are managed impartially and objectively in the public interest.
Once statistics have been designated as National Statistics it is a statutory requirement that the Code
of Practice shall continue to be observed.

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