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Sri Lanka needs 12 runs in the last four balls and Jayasuriya is batting. Assume that

he does not get out, and either hits a six or misses each ball.

(1a) what is the probability that they win off the last ball?

(1b) what is the probability that they win?

Question 2:

Mr. Garib Khan, Marketing Manager in-charge of Soft white detergent is exploring

the possibility of advertising his product on the upcoming Champions Trophy

Tournament of ODIs. His advertising agency has informed him that the regular slots

(between overs) have already been taken, but special slots are still available.

These are the slots available when wickets fall. With his long experience, he knows

that the viewers intensity is strong during the first hour that India is batting. If

India is batting and 5 or more of wickets fall in the first hour, Soft white will have

High Exposure (How unpatriotic, but that is life, he told himself). If less than five

wickets fall during the first hour, Soft white will have Low exposure. He also knows

that the probabilities differ depending on whether India is batting first or fielding

first. He has estimated that the probability of 5 or more Indian wickets falling, when

India is batting first is 0.40. On the other hand if India is batting second (i.e.,

fielding first) then the probability of 5 or more wickets falling is higher at 0.70. He

rightly assumed that the probability of India winning the toss is 0.5.

Of course, whether India is bating first or fielding first depends on India winning the

toss, which is completely unbiased. Past data indicates that in similar tournaments,

India elected to bat 80% of the time after winning the toss. On the other hand,

India was put to bat only 30% of the time when they lost the toss.

(2a) what is the joint probability that India wins the toss AND elects to bat first?

(2b) what is the joint probability that India loses the toss AND elects to bat first?

(2c) what is the probability that India bats first?

Question 3:

In a precision bombing attack there is a 50% chance that any one bomb will strike

the target. Two direct hits are required to destroy the target completely. How many

bombs must be dropped to give a 99% chance or better of completely destroying

the target?

Question 4:

Sarin played a large number of one-day cricket matches for the home team and he

always came in to bat at number three. As in the case of many other players, it was

felt that his performance was not very consistent. His coach analyzed his batting

and found a very interesting pattern. He found that Sarin came in to bat in the

early overs (first 16 overs) 50% of the time; in the middle overs (between 17 th and

33rd overs) 20% of the time and in the last overs (last 17 overs) 30% of the time.

The number of runs that he scored in all the three situations was normally

distributed with a mean of 40 runs. But, the variance has been different in the three

situations: 100 runs2 in the early overs; 64 runs 2 in the middle overs and 25 runs 2 in

the last overs.

(4a)What is the probability that Sarin scores 50 or more runs if he comes to bat in

the early overs?

(4b)What is the probability that he scores 50 or more runs?

(4c)What is the probability he scores 50 or more runs in 3 consecutive matches?

(State any assumptions you made)

Question 5:

Sourav is assigned to lead a project which is scheduled to be completed in 4 weeks.

He knows that he would just be able to complete the project on time provided all 3

team members (excluding him) stay on till the completion of the project. While

Sourav knows that there is no question of him quitting during the project, he cannot

be certain about any of his team members. Indeed he estimates, going by the

industry practice, anybody has 10% chance of quitting on any given week. While he

can and will seek immediate replacement if any of the team-members leave during

the project, (and getting replacement is not a problem) naturally there is some

delay in the project completion depending on the progress status of the project.

Company policy specifies that a person can leave only at the end of a week and for

simplicity you may assume that this project started on Monday. Thus, for example,

there is no question of any of the 3 initial co-members leaving during week 1

although any number of them may leave at the end of week 1 and hence not

available from week 2 of the project. Care is taken while allotting replacements to

ensure, for example, that if there is any replacement at the beginning of week 2,

these replacements can leave earliest at the end of week 2 etc. Sourav gauges that

there would be a 1-day delay for every team-member leaving at the end of the 1 st

week of the project, and 2-day delay for every member leaving at the end of the

second week , and 3-day delay per member leaving at the end of week3.

(5a)What is the probability distribution of the number of team members of Sourav

leaving at the end of week 1?

(5b)What is the probability of the project getting completed on time?

(5c)What is the chance that the delay in completion (if any) will be at most 2 days?

(5d)Given that at least 1 team-member leaves at the end of week 2 as well as at the

end of week 3, what is the likelihood that the delay in project completion will be at

most 6 days?

Question 6:

In a book of 590 pages, 390 typo-graphical errors occur. Assuming Poisson law for

the number of errors per page, find the probability that a random sample of 5 pages

will contain no error.

Question 7:

Suppose that the number of telephone calls coming into a telephone exchange

between 10am and 11 am is a random variable which is Poisson distributed with

parameter 2. Similarly the number of calls arriving between 11am to 12 noon is

another Poisson distributed random variable with parameter 6. If the two random

variables are independent, what is the probability that more than 5 calls come in

between 10 am to 12 noon?

Question 8:

Subbu has recently joined Swetha Unlimited Services India (Ltd) also known as

SUSIL. SUSIL is a major service provider to many software companies in Bangalore.

SUSIL handles the salary payments as well as the salary deductions to the

employees of the software companies. They also have to handle the complaints

received from the employees. Subbu is one of the complaint handlers specially

designated to handle the complaints of the employees of Indosys Pvt Ltd. The

number of complaints that he handles in a day is random but on average, he

handles 8 complaints per day.

SUSIL, based on their contract with Indosys, pays Subbu according to his

performance. His performance is rated as Low, if he handles 5 or less number of

complaints in a day. His performance is rated as Par if he handles 6 to 10

complaints in a day and Excellent if he handles more than 10 complaints in a day.

He is paid Rs. 200 per a Low day, Rs. 300 per a Par day and Rs. 600 per an

Excellent day. Subbu feels this is somewhat unfair, since the arrival of complaints

is a random process (Poisson) over which he has no control. However, he has little

choice in the matter.

(8a)On a particular day selected at random, what is the probability that Subbu is

paid Rs. 600?

(8b)In a 5-day week, what is the probability that Subbu has 3 Low days?

(8c)What is the average amount received by Subbu in a day?

Question 9:

An automatic filling machine fills cola into 750 ml bottles. At the start of a shift an

inspector will take a random sample of 50 bottles and measure the volume of cola

in them accurately. After computing the sample mean, she will approve the machine

operation only if the sample mean falls between 749.5 and 750.5 ml. If she does not

approve, the maintenance crew will be called to check and rectify the machine

setup. Assume that during a particular shift the population mean was 750.4 ml and

the population standard deviation was 1.2 ml. What is the probability that the

inspector will approve the machine operation?

Question 10:

Let

X 1 , X 2 ,.........

P120 S n 160

. We also have

S n X 1 X 2 ............... X n n 75

;

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