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OTHER BOOKS BY WARREN MERCHANT

Emergency Coordination
Every Second Counts
Office of Emergency Management: Anticipating the Gathering Storm
Structural Failure in Disasters
Escaping Plight, Hardship, and Adversity on Your Own

WARREN MERCHANT

WARNING
This book describes catastrophe-level situations where society has broken
down and individual safety is at risk. Since neither the author nor any reader of
this book has ever experienced such a situation, there is no way to know whether
events would unfold along the paths projected in these pages. As such, the
author and publisher of this book disclaim any liability from the use or misuse of
any information herein. This book theorizes possible consequences of hypothetical
events, and therefore we do not guarantee that the information is complete, safe,
or accurate. We also urge you to obey all laws and respect all rights of others.

This book was born out of my dissatisfaction with existing survival guides. Most of them focus on singular catastrophes that
occur in a matter of minutes or hours, requiring immediate but
short-term responses. That kind of preparation and awareness
is useful, but it doesnt address another kind of potential situation: Namely, the kind of disaster that nobody is preparing for, a
full-on collapsethe end of the world, or at least thats how it
would seem if you were in the middle of it. That would demand
a different kind of preparation. One way to think of it is to ask
yourself these questions: What would I do if I knew help wasnt
coming in the aftermath of a catastrophic event? What would I
do if I knew I had to survive on my own?
Its difficult to conceptualize and plan for this kind of disaster,
because when everything is falling apartand I mean everything, as youll see when I break scenarios down later in the
bookplanning breaks down too. How do you plan for not being
able to plan? Consider the fact that we have hurricane evacuation and response plans, but we dont seem to be doing anything
about climate change, which will likely create more and stronger
hurricanes. Why? Because one is an easily defined event with a
beginning (the hurricane), middle (response and reconstruction),
and end (restoration of normalcy). The other is a long-term problem with a number of potential consequences, requiring fundamental changes in the way we do things. Those changes are
hard to make because the reasons for them arent immediately
clear. Human beings are very good at responding to immediate
threats and very poor at planning for long-term consequences.
Why is that an issue? Because its the long-term problems that
destroy civilizations. Even the most devastating single event is
surmountable.

INTRODUCTION

INTRODUCTION

NEW YORK COLLAPSE

HOW CERA CLASSIFIES DISASTERS


CERA, or the Catastrophic Emergency Response Agency, classifies
what we would broadly call disasters according to four categories, in
ascending order of damage.

EMERGENCY :
A local event that can
be managed with local
resources.

DISASTER:
A local, time-limited
event that leaves regional
and national resources
sufficiently intact so that aid
and response are available.

CATASTROPHE:
A large-scale event with
national or international
consequences. Local and
regional response resources
are overwhelmed, and
complex, far-reaching

damaged or destroyed.

EXTINCTION-LEVEL
EVENT :
Exactly what it says. We
wont be dealing with these
in this book because, if one
happens, you wont be
around to read about it.

Were most concerned with what CERA would call a CATASTROPHE,


an event that has widespread, persistent, and complex effects. Some
European countries use the term HYPERCOMPLEX EMERGENCY.
Many people are paid to think about this stuff (Im one of them), and
they tend to characterize a catastrophe according to the following
list of effects.
Most or all community structures are affected, including
emergency response facilities.
Local response is compromised or fails due to loss of
personnel and/or facilities.
Aid to the region is not possible because all neighboring
areas are affected.
Everyday community functions are totally interrupted.
Destruction of local and regional infrastructure means
national government must take chargeif it is still intact
and able to do so.
In other words: HELP IS NOT COMING. NOT NOW, MAYBE NOT FOR A
LONG TIME. YOURE ON YOUR OWN.

INTRODUCTION

consequences persist over the long term. Societal infrastructure is

NEW YORK COLLAPSE


by Alex Irvine
AVAILABLE FOR PRE-ORDER NOW

wherever books are sold

Introducing New York Collapse, the exclusive story companion to Tom Clancys

The Division. At first glance, it appears to be an illustrated guide for surviving


urban catastrophe: how to protect yourself, find vital supplies, and stay alive.
But someone owned this book before you. She left her notes in the margins, and
retracing her steps reveals key secrets at the heart of the blockbuster new game.

Full book features removable artifacts, including:


Emergency flyer
Folded New York City map
And 5 more!

Design by Headcase Design. Illustrations by Son of Alan. Puzzle material by Puzzability.


2015 Ubisoft Entertainment. All Rights Reserved. Tom Clancys, The Division logo, the Soldier icon, Ubisoft and
the Ubisoft logo are trademarks of Ubisoft Entertainment in the U.S. and/or other countries.