PRELIMINARY NOTIONS



Probability is a major topic in statistics that deals with the likelihood or
chance that an event will occur
It has numerous applications on making inferential decisions in virus fields.
The basic principles of probability were first formulated to analyze the
outcomes.

STATISTICAL EXPERIMENT
// A statistical experiment (or simply an experiment) is any controlled repeatable
process that results to well-defined outcomes. It is a process that generates a set of
data.

Such an experiment is considered random since it is not possible to predict
its outcome.

SAMPLE SPACE, SAMPLE POINT, AND EVENT
//A sample space S is a set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. An element of
the sample space is called a sample point. A subset of the sample space is called an
event.
NOTE: The sample space S, which is the set of all outcomes, is analogous to the
universal set U, which is the set of all elements under consideration. An event is
analogous to a subset of the universal set.
For Visualization:

Venn Diagram
Tree Diagram

Example #1
Consider an experiment of tossing a fair coin.
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.

Define the sample space.
S={H,T}
Give an example of a sample point.
H
Give an example of an event.
{H}
Draw a Venn diagram and a tree diagram for the experiment.

Example #2
Consider a spinning wheel divided into eight congruent parts. The sectors are
number 1 to 8. Assume that the arrow points randomly to a sector, and not on any
boundary line, at the end of the point.
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
vi.

Describe the experiment.
Random, have equal chances
Define the sample space.
1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
How many elements are there in the sample space?
8
Let E be the event that the arrow points to an even number.
Enumerate the elements of event E.
2,4,6,8
How many elements are there in event E? 4

  Certain Event: o Getting either a “Head” or a “Tail” from a single toss of a (fair) coin Impossible Event EVENT OPERATION: UNION Union of Events The union of events A and B. A compound event or composite event is a subset of the sample space with two or more sample points.1)…(T.(H. EVENT OPERATION: COMPLIMENT kabaliktaran Example #4 . Construct a tree diagram to enumerate all possible outcomes of this experiment. or both) EVENT OPERATION: INTERSECTION Intersection of Events The intersection of events A and B. A null event. iii. B. CERTAIN AND NULL EVENTS // A certain event or sure event is an event which is certain to happen. i. Heads Tails /\\ /\\ 12… 1.2)…(T. B. denoted by A inverted U B.1). denoted by A U B. is the event containing sample points that belong to either A. also called an empty event or impossible event. ii.6)} How many elements are there in the sample space? 12 EVENTS Event  A subset of a sample space that consists of one or more sample points //Types of Events A simple event or elementary event is a subset of the sample space with one and only one sample point.2… What is the sample space? {(H. or to both. is an event that is impossible to happen. A U B = {x|x is a sample point in A. It is denoted by null O/. is the event containing the sample points common to both A and B.Example #3 An experiment consists of tossing a fair coin once followed by rolling a six-sided die.

Enumerate the elements in event A and in event B. The probability of a sample space is equal to 1. iii. A intersection B A intersection C 4. Find the union of events A and B..T} {T. let events E. The probability of an event E always lies in the range 0 to 1.. Let A be the event of getting an even number and B be the event of getting a multiple of 3.T} {H. 0<=P(E)<=1 2.H} (?) Example #5 Suppose that a six-sided dice is rolled once.6 A intersection D null MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS Mutally Exclusive Events Two events A and B are mutually exclusive or disjoint if events A and B have no common sample points. B be the event of getting a multiple of 3. that is. Let A be the event of getting an event number. and D be the event of obtaining an odd number.3. E={HH}. ii. What is the complement of event E? {T.4. that is A intersection B = null. Properties of Probability 1. In symbols.3 Then P(E) = P(E1 union E2 union.9 Example #6 Suppose that a six-sided dice is rolled once. ii. PROBABILITY A measure of the likelihood that a particular event will occur. C be the event of getting a number greater than 3. 2. that is. when a coin is tossed twice. P(S) = 1 3. be mutually exclusive such that E = E1 UNION E2 UNION ….) ASSIGNING PROBABILITIES    A Priori A Posteriori Subjective . Find each of the ff: i. The probability of the union of mutually exclusive events is iequal to the sum of the individual probability of each event.Let E be the event of getting two heads. i.

What is you chance of winning/ RULES OF PROBABILITY Addition Rule: Addition (or Additive) Rule of Probability If A and B are any two events in S. what is the probability that i. then P(A union B) = P(A) + P(B). the approximate probability of an event using the relative frequencies will approach the actual probability of the event. Pop up: LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS Example #10 If a card is drawn randomly from a deck of 52 cards. iii. then the probability that either A or B or both will happen is P(A union B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A intersect B) Special Addition Rule for Mutually Exlusive Events If A and B are mutually exclusive events.LINKING A PRIORI AND APOSTERIORI APPROACHES Notes  Probabilities calculated using the relative frequency approach are approximations of the true probability. It is from the heart suit? 13 out of 52 It is a queen? 4 out of 52 The number on the card is greater than 2 but less than 9? 24 out of 52 Example #11 If 5 cards are drawn from a deck of 52 cards at random. You with the jackpot prize if you select six numbers that match the six winning numbers drawn from a box regardless of the order. Probability Rule for Complement Events If A and A’ are complementary events. then P(A’) = 1-P(A). you are asked to choose six numbers from 1 to 55 for a raffle that will held in the evening. All the cards are black? (26C5)(26C0)/(52C5) Three of the cards are aces? (4C3)(48C2)/(52C5) Example #12 At the school fair. ii. what is the probabily that i. . number of trials increases without bound).  If a n experiment is done repeatedly a large number of times(that is. ii.

90 Example #16 Suppose that the probability that Kaye will get a grade of A.66} = 1/6 {15.22.24. what is the probability that the same number of dots or a double.33. D for conduct in school is 0.43… . or a sum of six will be obtained? {11. 20 green balls.Example #13 If a pair of six-sided dice is rolled.55. If Kay picks one of these balls at random.33.42. and 5 white balls. C. what is the probability that ball is red or green.51} = 5/36 Example #14 A bowl contatins 25 red balls.44. B.