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Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)

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The HAL Corporation wishes to improve the resistance of its personal computer to disk-

drive and keyboard failures. At present, the design of the computer is such that disk-drive

failures occur only one-third as often as keyboard failures. The probability of

simultaneous disk-drive and keyboard failures is 0.05

a) If the computer is 80 percent resistant to disk-drive and /or keyboard failure, how

low must the disk-drive failure probability be?

b) If the keyboard is improved so that it fails only twice as often as the disk-drive

(and the simultaneous failure probability is still 0.05), will the disk-drive failure

from part a) yield a resistance to disk-drive and/or keyboard failure be higher or

lower than 90 percent?

2.

The Herr-McFee Company, which produces nuclear fuel rods, must X-ray and inspect

each rod before shipping. Karen Wood, an inspector, has noted that for every 1,000 fuel

rods she inspects, 10 have interior flaws, 8 have casing flaws, and 5 have both flaws. In

her quarterly report, Karen must include the probability of flaws in fuel rods. What is this

probability?

3.

What is the probability that in selecting two cards one at a time from a deck with

replacement, the second card is

(a) A face card, given that the first card was red?

(b) An ace, given that the first card was a face card?

(c) A black jack, given that the first card was a red ace?

4.

George, Richard, Paul, and John play the following game. Each man takes one of four

balls numbered 1 through 4 from an urn. The man who draws ball 4 loses. The other three

return their balls to the urn and draw again. Now the one who draws ball 3 loses. The

other two return their balls to the urn and draw again. The man who draws ball 1 wins the

game.

(a) What is the probability that John does not lose in the first two draws?

(b) What is the probability that Paul wins the game?

5.

Two events, A and B, are statistically dependent. If P(A) = 0.39, If P(B) = 0.21, and If

P(A or B) = 0.47, find the probability that

(a) Neither A nor B will occur

(b) Both A and B will occur

(c) B will occur, given that A has occurred

(d) A will occur, given that B has occurred.

6.

Assume that for two events A and B, P (A) = 0.65, P (B) = 0.80, P (A/B) = P (A), and

P(B/A) = 0.85. Is this a consistent assignment of probabilities? Explain.

7.

worried about the likelihood of strikes by some of his employees. He has learned that the

probability of a strike by his pilots is 0.75 and the probability of a strike by his drivers is

0.65. Further, he knows that if the drivers strike, there is a 90 percent chance that the

pilots will strike in sympathy.

(a) What is the probability of both groups’ striking?

(b) If the pilots strike, what is the probability that the drivers will strike in sympathy?

8.

Two related experiments are performed. The first has three possible, mutually exclusive

outcomes: A, B, and C. the second has two possible, mutually exclusive outcomes: X and

Y. We know P (A) = 0.2 and P (B) = 0.65. We also know the following conditional

probabilities if the result of the second experiment is X: P(X/A) = 0.75, P(X/B) = 0.60,

and P(X/C) = 0.40. Find P(A/X), P(B/X), and P(C/X). What is the probability that the

result of the second experiment is Y?

9.

EconOcon is planning its company picnic. The only thing that will cancel the picnic is a

thunderstorm. The Weather Service has predicted dry conditions with probability 0.2,

moist conditions with probability 0.45, and wet conditions with probability 0.35. If the

probability of a thunderstorm given dry conditions is 0.3, given moist conditions is 0.6,

and given wet conditions is 0.8, what is the probability of a thunderstorm? If we know the

picnic was indeed canceled, what is the probability moist conditions were in effect?

10.

Determine the probability that

(a) Both engines on a small airplane fail, given that each engine fails with probability

0.05 and that an engine is twice as likely to fail when it is the only engine

working.

(b) An automobile is recalled for brake failure and has steering problems, given that

15 percent of that model was recalled for brake failure and 2 percent had steering

problems.

(c) A citizen files his or her tax return and cheats on it, given that 70 percent of all

citizens file returns and 25 percent of those who file cheat.

11.

In the summer of 1995, Boeing successfully introduced into commercial air line service

the 777, a large plane capable of carrying more than 300 passengers. They immediately

sought approval from the Federal Aviation Authority for long, transoceanic flights such

as the Denver to Honolulu route. The 777 is a twin-engined jet and previous FAA

approvals had been given to planes with four engines (such as the 747 jumbo jet) or with

extensive over-land commercial experience (such as the 767 twin jet).

In over-water flights, planes may be as far as three hours from the nearest airport.

Experience with engines similar to those on the new plane suggests that the expected rate

of engine failure is once every 50,000 flight hours. If failures of each of the two engines

are independent events

(a) What is the probability of either engine failing during a 6-hour flight?

(b) If one engine has failed, what is the probability that the second engine will fail?

(c) What is the probability that both engines will fail?

12.

A Doctor has decided to prescribe2 new drugs to 200 heart patients as follows: 50 get

drug A,50 get drug B and 100 get both. A reduces the probability of heart attack by 35%

while B reduces the probability of heart attack by 20% and the two drugs when taken

together act independently. The patients for the trial were chosen from a group which was

prone to heart attacks with a chance of 80%. If a randomly selected patient has a heart

attack, what is the probability that he was administered both the drugs?

13.

Two shipments of a machine part are received. The first shipment contains 1000 parts

with 10% defectives, while the other contains 2000 parts with5% defectives. One

shipment is selected at random. Two parts are tested and found good. What is the

probability that the parts were from the first shipment?

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