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Problems in Probability Distributions

1. An accountant of a company is hoping to receive payment from


three long pending payments shortly. He estimates that there is
0.7 probability of collecting 8 lakhs from ‘A’; 0.8 probability of
collecting 4 lakhs from ‘B’ and 0.5 probability of collecting 10
lakhs from ‘C’. He has promised the management that
He will be able to fund 12 lakhs from his collections in a short
period. Comment.

2. A hospital did a survey to estimate the no of patients requesting for


scanning
services. The survey was conducted on 100 successive days, the
results of which
are given below. The hospital management has decided to install a
scanning
machine only if it breaks even on the investment which calls for at
least 17 scannings a day. Please advice.

NO OF REQUESTS NO OF DAYS

1. 8 6
2. 10 19
3. 12 16
4. 14 18
5. 16 18
6. 18 18
7. 22 5

3. We Care Air needs to make a decision about FLT 105. There are currently 4
seats reserved for Last Minute Customers, but the airline does not know if anyone
will buy them. If they release the seats now, they know that they can get Rs 2500
for each seat, whereas last minute customers would pay Rs 4750 for the same
seat. We Care has the following P D to help them decide about the no of seats to
reserve for LMC. The goodwill lost when a last minute customer turns away is
Rs.1500.

No of LMC asking for seats 0 1 2 3 4

Probability 0.1 0.15 0.25 0.40 0.1

a) How much revenue will be generated by releasing all the seats now?
b) What is the net revenue expected if all seats are released now?
c) What is the NRE if three seats are released now?
d) What will be your advice to We Care?

4. For a binomial distribution with n = 7 and q = 0.4, find


P(r = 3 ), P( r > 5), P( r < 3) and P(r < 7)

What is the mean and standard deviation of this distribution?

5. A recent study showed that probability of American citizens taking a


vacation to be: 0.45 for 2 weeks ; 0.1 for 1 week and 0.2 for 3 or more
weeks. If 20 people are selected,

a) What is the probability that 8 take a 2 week vacation?


b) What is the probability that only one worker takes a 1 week vacation?
c) What is the probability that at most 2 of the workers take a vacation
lasting 3 or more weeks?
d) What is the probability that at least 3 workers take a vacation lasting 1
week?

6. Fit a binomial distribution to the following data.


x 0 1 2 3 4

f 28 62 46 10 4

7. For a binomial distribution the mean is 4 and variance is 2.


Find the probability of getting a)at least 2 successes b) at the most 2
Successes.

8. Harry is in charge of the electronic section of a large departmental store.


He has noticed that the probability that a customer who is just browsing
will buy is 0.3. If 15 customers browse every hour at the store, find
a) the probability that at least one customer will buy something.
b) the probability that at least four customers will buy something.
c) the probability that no customer will buy anything.
d) the probability that no more than four customers will buy anything.

9. If the probability of dialing a wrong number is 0.05. Find the probability of


dialing 3 wrong numbers in 100 dials?

10. In a production process it is observed that proportion of defectives is 0.01.


A random sample of 100 nos is selected. What is the probability of finding
a) 2 defectives from this lot? b) up to 2 defectives from this lot? c) at least
3 defectives from this lot?

11. The following table shows the number of days in a 50 day period during which
‘x’ number of accidents occurred in a city. Fit a Poisson distribution to the data.

x 0 1 2 3 4

frequency 21 18 7 3 1

12. Ted Hughes, the mayor of CITY, wants to do something to reduce the
number of accidents ‘x’ involving motorists and cyclists. Currently the
probability distribution of such accidents per week is as follows.

x 0 1 2 3 4 5

p 0.05 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.15 0.1

The mayor has 2 options: install additional lighting or increase number


of bike lanes. The respective revised probability distributions are as below.

x 0 1 2 3 4 5

p( lights) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.25 0.1 0.05

p( lanes) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.05 0.05

Which option should he go for if he wants major reduction in


a) Expected number of accidents per week?
b) Probability of more than 3 accidents per week?
c) Probability of 3 or more accidents per week?

13. A manager finds that the average demand per day for mechanics is 2
over the past 1 year and the demand is distributed as a Poisson variate.
He employs 3 mechanics. On how many days in one year, he will find
a) all the mechanics will be free? b) some demand is refused?

14. In a Poisson frequency distribution, frequency corresponding to 3


successes is 2/3 times that of 4 successes. Find mean and st. dev.