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M S Sridhar

Head, Library & Documentation ISRO Satellite Centre Bangalore 560017

E-mail: sridhar@isac.gov.in & mirlesridhar@gmail.com

**Statistical techniques for processing & analysis of data
**

Synopsis 1. Introduction to Research & Research methodology 2. Selection and formulation of research problem 3. Research design and plan 4. Experimental designs 5. Sampling and sampling strategy or plan 6. Measurement and scaling techniques 7. Data collection methods and techniques 8. Testing of hypotheses 9. Statistical techniques for processing & analysis of data 10. Analysis, interpretation and drawing inferences 11. Report writing

1. Introduction Statistics: what, why and characteristics 2. Statistic Types Quantitative & Qualitative (Variable & Attribute) data Descriptive & Inferential statistics 3. Processing & Analysis of data Processing: 1. Editing 2. Coding 3. Classification 4. Tabulation Analysis 1. Descriptive & inferential 2. Correlational, causal & multivariate …contd.

M S Sridhar, ISRO 2

Research Methodology 8

**Statistical Techniques for Processing & Analysis of Data:contd.
**

Synopsis 1. Introduction to Research & Research methodology 2. Selection and formulation of research problem 3. Research design and plan 4. Experimental designs 5. Sampling and sampling strategy or plan 6. Measurement and scaling techniques 7. Data collection methods and techniques 8. Testing of hypotheses 9. Statistical techniques for processing & analysis of data 10. Analysis, interpretation and drawing inferences 11. Report writing

Research Methodology 8

4. Some processing techniques Tally sheet / chart Presentation of data Textual or descriptive Tabular Diagrammatic/ graphical 5. Univariate analysis/ measures Central tendency Dispersion Asymmetry (skewness) 6. Bivariate & Multivariate analysis/ measures

M S Sridhar, ISRO 3

Statistics

•Science of statistics cannot be ignored by researcher •Statistics is both singular and plural. As plural it means numerical facts systematically collected and as singular it is the science of collecting, classifying and using statistics •It is a tool for designing research, processing & analysing data and drawing inferences / conclusions •It is also a double edged tool easily lending itself for abuse and misuse Abuse⇒ Poor data + Sophisticated techniques = Unreliable Result Misuse⇒Honest facts (Hard data) + Poor techniques = Impressions Examples:

Percentage for very small sample Using wrong average Playing with probability Scale & origin and proportion between ordinate & abscissa Funny correlation One-dimensional figure Unmentioned base

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 4

Characteristics of Statistics

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Aggregates of facts Affected by multiple causes Numerically expressed Collected in a systematic manner Collected for a predetermined purpose Enumerated or estimated according to reasonable standard of accuracy 7. Statistics must be placed in relation to each other (context)

Research Methodology 8

M S Sridhar, ISRO

5

What statistics does? 1. Enables to present facts on a precise definite form that helps in proper comprehension of what is stated. Exact facts are more convincing than vague statements 2. Helps to condense the mass of data into a few numerical measures, i.e., summarises data and presents meaningful overall information about a mass of data 3. Helps in finding relationship between different factors in testing the validity of assumed relationship 4. Helps in predicting the changes in one factor due to the changes in another 5. Helps in formulation of plans and policies which require the knowledge of further trends and hence statistics plays vital role in decision making

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 6

Statistic types

• Deductive statistics describe a complete set of data • Inductive statistics deal with a limited amount of data like a sample • Descriptive statistics ( & causal analysis) is concerned with development of certain indices from the raw data and causal analysis. Measures of central tendency and measures of dispersion are typical descriptive statistical measures • Inferential (sampling / statistical) analysis: Inferential statistics is used for (a) estimation of parameter values (point and interval estimates) (b) testing of hypothesis (using parametric / standard tests and non-parametric / distribution-free tests) and (c) drawing inferences

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 7

Descriptive Statistics (Techniques) 1. Uni-dimension analysis (Mostly one variable) (I) Central tendency - Mean, median, mode, GM & HM (ii) Dispersion - variance, standard deviation , mean deviation & range (iii) Asymmetry (Skewness) & Kurtosis (iv) Relationship - Pearson’s product moment correlation, spearman’s rank order correlation, Yule's coefficient of association (v) Others - One way ANOVA, index numbers, time series analysis, simple correlation & regression analysis

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 8

**Descriptive Statistics (Techniques) …contd.
**

2. Bivariate analysis (I) Simple regression & correlation (ii) Association of attributes (iii)Two-way ANOVA 3. Multivariate analysis (i)Multiple regression & correlation/partial correlation (ii)Multiple Discriminate Analysis: Predicting an entity’s possibility of belonging to a particular group based on several predictors (iii)Multi-ANOVA: Extension of two-way ANOVA; ratio of among group variance to within group variance (iv)Canonical analysis : Simultaneously predicting a set of dependent variables (both measurable & non measurable) (v)Factor analysis, cluster analysis, etc.

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 9

Quantitative and Qualitative (Variable and Attribute) Data • Quantitative (or numerical) data an expression of a property or quality in numerical terms data measured and expressed in quantity enables (i) precise measurement (ii) knowing trends or changes over time, and (iii) comparison of trends or individual units On the other hand, • Qualitative (or categorical ) data involves quality or kind with subjectivity Variables data are quality characteristics that are measurable values, i.e., they are measurable, normally continuous and may take on any value Attribute data are quality characteristics that are observed to be either present or absent, conforming or not conforming, i.e., they are countable, normally discrete and integer

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 10

**Processing and Analysis of Qualitative Data
**

When feel & flavour of the situation become important, researchers resort to qualitative data (some times called attribute data) Qualitative data describe attributes of a single or a group of persons that is important to record as accurately as possible even though they cannot be measured in quantitative terms. More time & efforts are needed to collect & process qualitative data. Such data are not amenable for statistical rules & manipulations. However, Scaling techniques help converting qualitative data into quantitative data. Usual data reduction, synthesis and plotting trends are required but differ substantially and extrapolation of finding is difficult. It calls for sensitive interpretation & creative presentation. Examples: Quotation from interview, open remarks in questionnaire, case histories bringing evidence, content analysis of verbatim material, etc. …contd.

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 11

**Process and Analysis of Qualitative Data …contd.
**

Note: Identifying & coding recurring answers to open ended questions help categorise key concepts & behaviour. May even count & cross analyse (requires pattern discerning skill); even unstructured depth interviews can be coded to summarise key concepts & present in the form of master charts Qualitative coding involves classifying data which are (i) not originally created for research purpose and (ii) having very little order STEPS: 1. Initial formalisation with issues arising (build themes & issues) 2. Systematically describing the contents (compiling a list of key themes) 3. Indexing the data (note reflections for patterns, links, etc.) in descriptions; interpreting in relation to objective; checking the interpretation 4. Charting the data themes 5. Refining the charted material 6. Describing & discussing the emerging story

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 12

**Processing and Analysis of Quantitative Data
**

Quantitative data are numbers representing counts, ordering or measurements can be described, summarised (data reduction), aggregated, compared and manipulated arithmetically & statistically Levels of measurement (ie., nominal, ordinal, interval & ratio) determine the kind of statistical techniques to be used Use of computer is necessary in many situations Organisation and classification of data Presentation of data Analysis of data Inferential (Sampling / Statistical) Analysis is concerned with process of generalisation through estimation of parameter values and testing of hypotheses Interpretation of data Inference: Data processing, analysis, presentation (presenting in table, chart or graph) & interpretation (interpreting is to expound the meaning) should lead to drawing inference, i.e., (i) Validation of hypotheses and (ii) Realisation of objectives with respect to (a) Relationship between variables (b) Discovering a fact (c) Establishing a general or universal law

M S Sridhar, ISRO 13

1. 2. 3.

4.

Research Methodology 8

**Processing and Analysis of Quantitative Qata …contd.
**

STEPS: 1. Data reduction : Reduce large batches & data sets (a) to numerical summaries, tabular & graphical form (b) to enable to ask questions about observed patterns 2. Data presentation 3. Exploratory data analysis 4. Looking for relationships & trends 5. Graphical presentation PROCESSING (Aggregation & compression): 1. Editing : (i) Field editing (ii) Central editing 2. Coding: Assigning to a limited number of mutually exclusive but exhaustive categories or classes 3. Classification: arranging data in groups or classed on the basis of common characteristics (i) By attributes ( statistics of attributes) (ii) By class intervals (statistics of variables)

Note:class limits, class intervals,magnitude, determination of frequencies & number of classes (normally 5-15; size of class interval, i = R / 1+3.3 log N Where R = Range & N = No. of items to be grouped) are discussed later

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 14

**Processing and Analysis of Quantitative Data
**

4. Tabulation/ Tabular Presentation :

To make voluminous data readily usable and easily comprehensible three forms of presentation are possible A. Textual (descriptive) presentation: When the quantity of data is not too large and no difficulty in comprehending while going through, textual presentation helps to emphasise certain points. E.g. There are 30 students in the class and of which 10 (one-third) are female students. B.Tabular presentation: Summarising and displaying data in a concise / compact and logical order for further analysis is the purpose of tabulation. It is a statistical representation presenting as a simple or complex table for summarising and comparing frequencies, determining bases for and computing percentages, etc. Note: While tabulating responses to questionnaire that problems concerning the responses like ‘Don’t know’ and not answered responses, computation of percentages, etc. have to be handled carefully. C. Diagrammatic presentation

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 15

**Tabular Presentation of Data
**

Table organises data presenting in rows and columns with cells containing data for further statistical treatment and decision making. Four kinds of classification used in tabulation are: i) Qualitative classification based on qualitative characteristics like status, nationality and gender ii) Quantitative classification based on characteristics measured quantitatively like age, height and income (assigning class limits for the values forms classes) iii) Temporal classification : Categorised according to time (with time as classifying variable). E.g., hours, days, weeks, months, years iv) Spatial classification: Place as a classifying variable. E.g. Village, town, block, district, state, country

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 16

Parts of Table

Table is conceptualised as data presented in rows and columns along with some explanatory notes. Tabulation can be one-way, two-way, or three-way classification depending upon the number of characteristics involved i) Table number for identification purpose at the top or at the beginning of the title of the table; Whole numbers are used in ascending order; Subscripted numbers are used if there are many tables ii) Title, usually placed at the head, narrates about the contents of the table; Clearly, briefly and carefully worded so as to make interpretations from the table clear and free from ambiguity iii) Captions or column heading: are column designations to explain figures of the column

Research Methodology 8

M S Sridhar, ISRO

17

**Parts of Table …contd.
**

iv) Stab or row leadings (stab column) are designations of the rows v) Body of the table contains the actual data vi) Unit of measurement: stated along with the title; does not change throughout the table unless stated when different units are used for rows and columns; if stated figures are large, they are rounded up and indicated vii)Source Note at the bottom of the table to indicate the source of data presented viii)Foot Note is the last part of the table; explains the specific feature of the data content, which is not self explanatory and has not been explained earlier

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 18

**Preparation of Frequency Distribution Table
**

1. Deciding number of classes: The rule of thumb is to have 5 to 15 classes. Know the range and variations in variable’s value. Range is the difference between the largest and the smallest value of the variable (i.e., It is the sum of all class intervals or the number of classes multiplied by class interval) (Class interval is the various intervals of the variable chosen for classifying data) 2. Deciding size of each class : 1 and 2 are inter-linked 3. Determining the class limit : Choose a value less than the minimum value of the variable as the lower limit of the first class and a value greater than the maximum value of the variable is the upper class limit for the last class. Note: It is important to choose class limit in such a way that mid-point or class mark of each class coincides, as far as possible, with any value around which the data tend to be concentrated, i.e., Class limits are chosen in such a way that midpoint is close to average

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 19

Class Intervals in Frequency Tables

11

12

13

14

16

17

18

19

A

10

5 UNITS

15

5 UNITS

20

**Even class-interval & its mid point
**

UPPER LIMIT

LOWER LIMIT

MID-POINT

11

12

13

14

B

10

2.5 UNITS

12.5

2.5 UNITS

20

**Odd class-interval & its mid point
**

UPPER LIMIT 15

LOWER LIMIT

MID-POINT

Research Methodology 8

M S Sridhar, ISRO

20

Preparation of Frequency Distribution

contd.

Two methods for class limits: Exclusive & inclusive type class intervals for determination of frequency of each class (see tally sheet example given later) (i) Exclusive method: Upper class limit of one class equals the lower class limit of the next class. Suitable in case of data of a continuous variable and here the upper class limit is excluded but the lower class limit of a class is included in the interval (ii) Inclusive method: Both class limits are parts of the class interval. An adjustment in class interval is done if we found ‘gap’ or discontinuing between the upper limit of a class and the lower limit of the next class. Divide the difference between the upper limit of first class and lower limit of the second class by 2 and subtract it from all lower limits and add it to all upper class limits.

Adjusted class mark = (Adjusted upper limit + Adjusted lower limit) /2

**This adjustment restores continuity of data in the frequency distribution
**

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 21

Preparation of Frequency Distribution

contd.

4. Find the frequency of each class (i.e., how many times that observation occurs in the row data) by tally marking. Frequency of an observation is the number of times a certain observations occurs. Frequency table gives the class intervals and the frequencies associated with them Loss of information: Frequency distribution summarises raw data to make it concise and comprehensible, but does not show the details that are found in raw data. Bivariate Frequency distribution is a frequency distribution of two variables (e.g.:No. of books in stock and budget of 10 libraries) Frequency Distribution with unequal classes: Some classes having either densely populated or sparsely populated observations, the observations deviate more from their respective class marks than in comparison to those in other classes. In such cases, unequal classes are appropriate. They are formed in such a way that class marks coincide, as far as possible, to a value around which the observations in a class tend to concentrate, then in that case unequal class interval is more appropriate. Frequency array: For a discrete variable, the classification of its data is known as a frequency array (e.g. No. of books in 10 libraries)

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 22

Analysis of Data

Computation of certain indices or measures, searching for patterns of relationships, estimating values of unknown parameters, & testing of hypothesis for inferences 1. Descriptive analysis : Largely the study of distributions of one variable (uni-dimension); Univariate analysis → Two variables Multivariate analysis → More than two variables

**2. Inferential or statistical analysis :
**

• Correlation & causal analysis: Joint variation of two or more variables is correlation analysis How one or more variables affect another variable is causal analysis Functional relation existing between two or more variables is regression analysis • Multivariate analysis: Simultaneously analysing more than two variables • Multiple regression analysis: Predicting dependent variable based on its covariance with all concerned independent variables

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 23

Tally (tabular) sheets /charts for frequency distribution of qualitative, quantitative and grouped/ interval data I. Single variable (Univariate measures) 1. Quantitative (I) Simple data (ii) Frequency distribution of grouped / interval data 2. Qualitative (Attributes) II. Two or more variables (Bivariate & multivariate measures) 1. Quantitative / Quantitative (I) Simple (ii) Frequency distribution 2. Quantitative / Qualitative (Attributes) (I) Simple (ii) Frequency distribution 3. Qualitative / Qualitative (Attributes) examples of tabulation and tabular presentation follows

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 24

Table 8.1 (Quantitative data) Frequency distribution of citations in technical reports No. of citations Tally Frequency (No. of tech. reports) 0 1 2 3 4 5 ⎟⎟ ⎟⎟⎟⎟ ⎟⎟⎟⎟ ⎟⎟⎟⎟ ⎟⎟⎟⎟ ⎟⎟ ⎟⎟⎟⎟ ⎟⎟⎟ 2 4 5 4 7 8 Total 30

Research Methodology 8

Table 8.2 (Qualitative data) Frequency distribution of qualification (educational level) of users Qualification Tally Frequency (No. of users) Undergraduates ⎟⎟⎟⎟ ⎟ 6

Graduates Postgraduates

⎟⎟⎟⎟ ⎟⎟⎟⎟ ⎟⎟⎟⎟ ⎟⎟

9 7

Doctorates

⎟⎟⎟

3 Total 25

M S Sridhar, ISRO

25

Table 8.3: Frequency distribution of age of 66 users who used a branch public library during an hour (Grouped/ interval data of single variable) (Note that the raw data of age of individual users is already grouped here) Age in years Tally Frequency (No. of (Groups/Classes) users) < 11 11 – 20 21 – 30 31 – 40 41 – 50 51 - 60 > 60 11 14 16 12 6 3 4 Total 66

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 26

Table 8.4: No. of books acquired by a library over last six years Year No. of Books acquired (Qualitative) (Quantitative) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Total 772 910 873 747 832 891 5025

Table 8.5: The daily visits of users to a library during a week are recorded and summarised Day users (Qualitative) Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Total Number of (Quantitative) 391 247 219 278 362 96 1593

27

Research Methodology 8

M S Sridhar, ISRO

Table 8.6: The frequency distribution of number of authors per paper of 224 sample papers No. of Authors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Total No. of Papers 43 51 53 30 19 15 6 4 2 1 224

Research Methodology 8

M S Sridhar, ISRO

28

Table 8.7: Total books (B), journals (J) and reports ( R) issued out from a library counter in one hour are recorded as below: B B B J B B B B J B B B B B B B B B B B B B B J B R B B B J

A frequency table can be worked out for above data as shown below: Document Tally Frequency Relative Cumulative Cumulative Type (Number) frequency frequency relative frequency

Books Journal Reports

20 4 1 Total 25

0.8 0.16 0.04 1.0

M S Sridhar, ISRO

20 24 25

0.8 0.96 1.0

Research Methodology 8

29

Table 8.7 contd. Note: If the proportion of each type of document (category) are of interest rather than actual numbers, the same can be expressed in percentages or as proportions as shown below: Proportions of books, journals and reports issued from a library in one hour is 20:4:1 OR Type of Proportion of each type document of document (%) Books Journal Reports Total

Research Methodology 8

80 16 4 100

M S Sridhar, ISRO 30

Table 8.8: Given below is a summarized table of the relevant records retrieved from a database in response to six queries Search No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total Total Documents Retrieved 79 18 20 123 6 109 375 Relevant Documents Retrieved 21 10 11 48 8 48 146 % of relevant records Retrieved 26.6 55.6 55.0 39.0 50.0 44.0

Note:Percentage of relevant records retrieved for each query gives better picture about which query is more efficient than observing just frequencies.

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 31

Table 8.9: Frequency distribution of borrowed use of books of a library over four years No. Times borrowed No. of Books (Quantitative) (Quantitative) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 >10

Research Methodology 8

Percentage

**Cumulative borrowed Percentage 57.12 69.68 81.61 85.42 87.99 90.01 91.68 92.96 93.96 94.78 95.62 100.00
**

32

19887 4477 4047 1328 897 726 557 447 348 286 290 1524

57.12 12.56 11.93 3.81 2.57 2.02 1.58 1.28 1.00 0.92 0.84 4.38

M S Sridhar, ISRO

Table 8.10: The raw data of self-citations in a sample of 10 technical reports are given below: 5 0 1 4 0 3 8 2 3 0 4 2 1 0 7 3 1 2 6 0 2 2 5 7 2 Frequency distribution of self-citations of technical reports: No. of selfFrequency Less than (or equal) More than (or equal) citations (No. of reports) cumulative frequency cumulative frequency No. % % % 0 5 20 20 100 1 3 12 32 80 2 6 24 56 68 3 3 12 68 44 4 2 8 76 32 5 2 8 84 24 6 1 4 88 16 7 2 8 96 12 8 1 4 100 4 Total 25

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 33

Table 8.11: (Qualitative Data) Responses in the form of True (T) or False (F) to a questionnaire (opinionnaire) is tabulated and given along with qualitative raw data True 17 T T T F F False 8 F T T T T No response 5 T T F F T Total 30 F T F T T T T T T F

Research Methodology 8

M S Sridhar, ISRO

34

**Grouped or Interval Data
**

So far (except in Table 8.3) only discrete data are presented and the number of cases/ items are also limited As against discrete data, continuous data like heights of people, have to be collected in groups or intervals, like height between 5’ and 5’5” for a meaningful analysis Even large quantity of discrete data require compression and reduction for meaningful observation, analysis and inferences Table 8.12 in the next slide presents 50 observations and if we create a frequency table of these discrete data it will have 22 lines in the table as there are 22 different values 9ranging from Rs.10/to Rs.100/-). Such large tables are undesirable as they not only take more time but also the resulting frequency table is less appealing. In such situations, we transform discrete data into grouped or interval data by creating manageable number of classes or groups. Such data compression and reduction are inevitable and worth despite some loss of accuracy (or data)

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 35

**Table 8.12 : (Grouped or interval data) Raw data of prices (in Rs.) of a set of 50 popular science books in Kannada 30 50 40 25 18 27 35 25 20 20
**

Research Methodology 8

80 60 30 50 35 25 35 30 16 65

100 40 70 10 60 25 14 40 13 60

M S Sridhar, ISRO

12 30 43 30 35 30 32 15 30 40

40 45 40 35 25 30 35 30 60 10

36

**Frequency distribution of grouped or interval data of Table 8.12 No. of Price in Rs. books 10 1 Mean = Rs. 35.9 12 1 Median = Rs. 33.5 13 1 Mode = Rs. 30 14 1 15 1 16 1 18 1 20 2 25 5 27 1 30 9 32 1 35 6 40 6 43 1 45 1 50 2 60 4 65 1 70 1 80 1 100 1
**

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 37

Frequency distribution of grouped or interval data of price (in Rs.) of popular science books in Kannada (Table 8.12) : Price (in Rs.) (class) Frequency (f) (No. of books) 1 - 10 2 11 - 20 8 21 - 30 15 31 - 40 13 41 - 50 4 51 - 60 4 61 - 70 2 71 - 80 1 81 - 90 0 91 -100 1 Total

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO

50

38

Home work

Work out a frequency table with less than cumulative and more than cumulative frequencies for the raw data of number of words per line in a book given below : 12 10 12 09 11 10 13 13 07 11 10 10 09 10 12 11 01 10 13 10 15 13 11 12 08 13 11 10 08 12 13 11 09 11 14 12 07 12 11 10

Research Methodology 8

M S Sridhar, ISRO

39

**Diagrammatic/ Graphical Presentation
**

quickest understanding of the actual situation to be explained by data compared to textual or tabular presentation translates quite effectively the highly abstract ideas contained in numbers into more concrete and easily comprehensive from may be less accurate but more effective than table tables and diagrams may be suitable to illustrate discrete data while continuous data is better represented by graphs Note: Sample charts are constructed and presented using data from previously presented tables. Different types of data may require different modes of diagrammatic representation

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO

Three important kinds of diagrams: i) Geometric diagram (a) Bar (column) chart: simple, multiple, and component (b) Pie ii) Frequency diagram (a) Histogram (b) Frequency polygon (c) Frequency curve (d) Ogive or cumulative frequency curve iii) Arithmetic line graph

40

Simple column chart for data in Table 8.2 : Qualification of users

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

9 7 6 3

No. of usres

nd er gr ad ua te s

G

Po st g

Research Methodology 8

U

M S Sridhar, ISRO

D

oc to ra te s

ra du at es

ra du

at es

41

Bar chart for data from Table 8.9: Frequency distribution of borrowed use of books of a library over four years

25000

19 8 8 7

20000

No. of books

15000

10000

5000

4 4 77

4047 152 4 72 6 557 447 348 286 290

13 2 8

897

0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 >10

**No. of tim es borrow ed
**

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 42

**Bar chart for data in Table 8.1 : Frequency distribution of citations in technical reports
**

5 N o. of c ita tions 4 3 2 1 0 0 2 2 4 6 8 10 No. of reports

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 43

8 7

4 5 4

Component bar chart

Research Methodology 8

M S Sridhar, ISRO

44

100% component column chart

Research Methodology 8

M S Sridhar, ISRO

45

Grouped column chart

Research Methodology 8

M S Sridhar, ISRO

46

Comparative 100% columnar chart

Chart with figures / symbols

Research Methodology 8

M S Sridhar, ISRO

47

Histogram (frequency polygon) for data in Table 8.6: No. of authors per paper

60 51 50 N of papers o. 40 43

53

30 30 20 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 No. of authors 19 15

Frequency polygon

6

4

2

1

Research Methodology 8

M S Sridhar, ISRO

48

Line graphs

Research Methodology 8

M S Sridhar, ISRO

49

Line graph for data in Table 8.6 : No. of authors per paper

60 50 No. of papers 40 30 20 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No. of authors 8 43 30 19 51 53

15 6 4 9 2 1 10

50

Research Methodology 8

M S Sridhar, ISRO

**Frequency Distribution of No. of Words per Line of a Book (Home work)
**

120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2.5 7.5 12.5 20 42.5 62.5 80 95 97.5 100

**Less than (or equal) cumulative frequency in %
**

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 51

**Cumulative frequency graph of reduction in no. of journals subscribed and no. of reports added over the years
**

1200

Reports Journals 533 519 444 416 326 300 Year 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2002 (annual intake) (subscribed) 1063 936 523 288 67 29

1000

800

600

**400 Reports (annual intake) Journals (subscribed) 0 1980
**

Research Methodology 8

200

1985

1990

1995

2000

2002

52

M S Sridhar, ISRO

Line graph of less than or equal cumulative frequency of self-citations in technical reports(Table 8.12) 120 100 No. of reports 80 60 40 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 No. of self-citations

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 53

68 56 32 20

76

84

88

96

100

**Line graph for more than or equal cumulative frequency of self-citations in reports (Table 8.12)
**

100 N o . o f rep o rts 80 60 40 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 No. of self-citations

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 54

80 68 44 32 24 16 12

4 9

**Pie Diagram / Chart for Example 8.7: No. of books, journals and reports issued per hour
**

R e por t s 4%

Jour na l s 16%

B ook s 80%

Books

Research Methodology 8

Journals

M S Sridhar, ISRO

Reports

55

**Univariate Measures: A. Central Tendency
**

Central tendency or averages are used to summarise data. It specifies a single most representative value to describe the data set. 1. The sum of the deviations of individual values of x from the mean will always add up to zero 2. The positive deviations must balance the negative deviations. 3. It is very sensitive to extreme values 4. The sum of squares of the deviations about the mean is minimum A good measure of central tendency should meet the following requisites - easy to calculate and understand - rigidly delivered - representative of data - should have sampling stability - should not be affected by extreme values

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 56

**Univariate Measures: A. Central Tendency
**

1. MEAN: Arithmetic mean (called statistical / arithmetic average) is the most commonly used measure. By dividing the total of items by total number of items we get mean.

Characteristics of Mean

most representative figure for the entire mass of data tells the point about which items have a tendency to cluster unduly affected by extreme items (very sensitive to extreme values) The positive deviations must balance the negative deviations (The sum of the deviations of individual values of x from the mean will always add up to zero) The sum of squares of the deviations about the mean is minimum

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 57

**Univariate Measures: A. Central Tendency
**

1. MEAN X =

n EX: 4 6 11 7 8 9 9.27 102

xi

=

X1 +X2+ ….+Xn n 10 11 11 11 12 13

X =

=

For grouped or interval data

X =

fi xi fi

=

f1x1 +f2 x2+ ….+fn xn f1+f2+ ….+fn (= n)

M S Sridhar, ISRO 58

Research Methodology 8

**Mean for grouped or interval data
**

X = ∑ fi xi / n where n = ∑ fi = f1X1 + f2 X2 + ….+ fn Xn / f1 + f2 + ….+ fn Formula for Weighted Mean: X w = ∑ Wx Xi / ∑ Wi Formula for Mean Of Combined Sample: X = nX+ mY / n+m Formula for Moving Average ( Shortcut or Assumed Average Method): X = fi (Xi – A) / n : where n = ∑ fi NOTE: Step deviation method takes common factor out to enable simple working and uses the formula X = g + [∑ f d / n] (i)

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59

Calculation of the mean (¯X ) from a frequency distribution of grouped or interval data of price (in Rs.) of popular science books in Kannada (Table 8.12) using Step deviation method is shown below: Cumulative Distance of class from the Price (in Frequenc less than or assumed average equal Rs.) y (f) (No. class (d) (class) of books) frequency (cf) 1 -- 10 2 2 -4 11 -- 20 8 10 -3 21 -- 30 15 25 -2 31 -- 40 13 38 -1 41 -- 50 4 42 0 51 -- 60 4 46 1 61 -- 70 2 48 2 71 -- 80 1 49 3 81 -- 90 0 50 4 Total 50

fd d2 -8 16 -24 9 -30 4 -13 1 0 0 4 1 8 4 3 9 4 16 -56

fd2 32 72 60 13 0 0 8 9 0 194

**g = 46 ; ∑ƒd = - 56 ; n = 50 ; i = 10 ¯X = g + [∑ f d / n] (i) = 46 + [ -56 / 50] (10) = 34.6 Note: Compare answer with mean calculated as discrete data in Table 8.12
**

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 60

**Assumed average (shortcut) method & step deviation method
**

Table: Calculation of the mean (x ) from a frequency distribution. data represent weights or

265 male freshman students at the university of Washington

Class-Interval (Weight)

ƒ

d

ƒd

90 - 99 .......... 100 -- 109 …….. 110 -- 119 …….. 120 -- 129 ……... 130 -- 139 …….. 140 -- 149 ……… 150 -- 159 ……… 160 -- 169 ……… 170 -- 179 ……… 180 -- 189 ……… 190 -- 199 ………

200 -- 209 ………

1 1 9 30 42 66 47 39 15 11 1

3

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

6

**-5 X = g + (i) -4 N -27 99 -60 = 145 + ----- ( 10 ) -42 265 0 47 = 145 + ( .3736) (10) 78 = 145 + 3.74 45 = 148.74 44 5 fi – ( Ai - A )
**

18 X = A + --------------------fi

ƒd

N = 265

**ƒd = 237 - 138 = 99
**

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Research Methodology 8

**Univariate Measures: A. Central Tendency
**

WEIGHTED MEAN Wi Xi Xw = Wi EX: MEAN OF COMBINED SAMPLE NX + MY Z = N+M MOVING AVERAGE SHORTCUT OR ASSUMED AVERAGE METHOD (Xi – A) n fi (Xi – A) fi

contd..

X=A +

X = A+

**NOTE: Step deviation method takes common factor out to enable simple working
**

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 62

**Univariate Measures: A.Central Tendency
**

2. Median: Middle item of series when arranged in ascending or descending order of magnitude

M = VALUE OF N+1 / 2 TH ITEM EX: 11 4 1 7 6 2 13 7 3 4 8 4 11 9 6 9 10 11 5 6 7 11 11 8 10 11 9 12 8 12 13 10 11

FOR FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION N/2 - Cf M = L+ × i F

L = lower limit of the median class Cf = cum. freq. of the class preceding the median class f = simple freq. of the median class i = width of the class interval of the median class Note: As a positional average does not involve values of all items and useful only in qualitative phenomenon

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 63

Median

The median in the layman language is divider like the ‘divider’ on the road that divides the road into two halves A positional value of the variable which divides the distribution into two equal parts, i.e., the median of a set of observations is a value that divides the set of observations into two halves so that one half of observations are less than or equal to the median value and the other half are greater than or equal to the median value Extreme items do not affect median, i.e., median is a useful measure as it is not unduly affected by extreme values and is specially useful in open ended frequencies For discrete data, mean and median do not change if all the measurements are multiplied by the same positive number and the result divided later by the same constant As a positional average, median does not involve values of all items and it is more useful in qualitative phenomenon The median is always between the arithmetic mean and the mode

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 64

**Median of grouped or interval data
**

M = L + W/F (i) Where, W = [n/2] – Cf (No. of observations to be added to the cumulative total in the previous class in order to reach the middle observation in the array) L = Lower limit of the median class (the array in which middle observation lies) Cf = Cumulative frequency of the class preceding the median class i = Width of the class interval of the median class (the class in which the middle observation of the array lies) F = Frequency distribution of the median class

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Calculation of the median (M) from a frequency distribution of grouped or interval data of price (in Rs.) of popular science books in Kannada (Table 8.12) is given below Price (in Rs.) Frequency (f) Cumulative less than or equal (class) (No. of books) frequency) 1 -- 10 2 2 11 -- 20 8 10 21 -- 30 15 25 31 -- 40 13 38 41 -- 50 3 41 51 -- 60 3 44 61 -- 70 2 46 71 -- 80 1 47 81 -- 90 0 47 91 -- 100 1 48 100 2 50 Total 50

**L = 21 ; Cf = 10 ; I = 10 ; F = 15 ; W = [n/2] – Cf = [50/2] – 10 = 15 M = L + W/F (i) = 21 + 15/15 (10) = 31 Note: Compare answer with median calculated as discrete data in Table 8.12
**

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 66

**Median for grouped or interval data
**

TABLE : Calculation of the median (x). data represent weights of 265 male freshman studies at the university of Washington Class – Interval

(Weight) ƒ

Cumulative

ƒ “Less than”

[ w = N/2 – Cf ]

90 - 99 …….. 1 1 100 - 109 ……… 1 2 110 - 119 ……… 9 11 120 - 129 ……… 30 41 130 – 139 ………. 42 83 140 – 149 ………. 66 149 150 – 159 ……… 47 196 160 – 169 ……… 39 235 170 – 179 ……… 15 250 180 – 189 ……… 11 261 190 – 199 ……… 1 262 200 – 209 ……… 3 265 N = 265 N /2 = 265/2 = 132.5

Research Methodology 8

X = / + (W/f) = = = = = =

(i)

132.5 - 83 140 + -------------------- (10) 66 49.5 140 + --------- (10) 66 140 + (.750) (10) 140 + ( .750) (10) 140 + 7.50 147.5

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**Univariate Measures: A. Central Tendency 3. Mode
**

MODE is the most commonly or frequently occurring value in a series EX. : 4 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 12 13 -------------^ For Frequency Distribution Δ1 f2 Z = L + ----------- X i OR L + --------- X i Δ1 Δ2 f2 + f1 L = Looser limit of the modal class. Δ1 = Difference in Freq. Between the modal class and the preceding class. Δ2 = Difference in Freq. Between the modal class and the succeeding class. i = Width of the class interval of the modal class. f1 = Freq. of the class preceding the modal class. f2 = Freq. of the class succeeding the modal class.

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 68

Mode

Mode is the most commonly or frequently occurring value/ observed data or the most typical value of a series or the value around which maximum concentration of items occur. In other words, the mode of a categorical or a discrete numerical variable is that value of the variable which occurs maximum number of times The mode is not affected by extreme values in the data and can easily be obtained from an ordered set of data The mode does not necessarily describe the ‘most’ ( for example, more than 50 %) of the cases Like median, mode is also a positional average and is not affected by values of extreme items. Hence mode is useful in eliminating the effect of extreme variations and to study popular (highest occurring) case (used in qualitative data) The mode is usually a good indicator of the centre of the data only if there is one dominating frequency. However, it does not give relative importance and not amenable for algebraic treatment (like median) Median lies between mean & mode. For normal distribution, mean, median and mode are equal (one and the same)

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 69

**Mode for grouped or interval data
**

For frequency distribution with grouped (or interval) quantitative data , the model class is the class interval with the highest frequency. This is more useful when we measure a continuous variable which results in every observed value having different frequency. Modal class in Table 8.3 is age group 21-30. Please note that since the notion of the location or central tendency requires order mode is not meaningful for nominal data. f2 Δ2 Z = L + -------- (i) OR L + --------- (i) f2 + f1 Δ2 + Δ1 Where, L = Lower limit of the modal class Δ1 = Difference in frequency between the modal class and the preceding class Δ2 = Difference in frequency between the modal class and the succeeding class i = Width of the class interval of the modal class f1 = Frequency of the class preceding the modal class f2 = Frequency of the class succeeding the modal class

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 70

Calculation of the mode (Z ) from a frequency distribution of grouped or interval data of price (in Rs.) of popular science books in Kannada (Table 8.12) is shown below: Price (in Rs.) (class) 1 -- 10 11 -- 20 21 -- 30 31 -- 40 41 -- 50 51 -- 60 61 -- 70 71 -- 80 81 -- 90 Total

L = 41 Z

Cumulative less than Frequency (f) (No. of books) or equal frequency (cf) 2 2 8 10 15 25 13 38 4 42 4 46 2 48 1 49 0 50 50

; i = 10 ; f1 = 13 ; f2 = 4 OR L + [Δ2 / Δ1 + Δ2] (i)

= L + [f1 / f1 + f2] (i)

Z = 41 + [13 / 13 + 4] (10) = 48.65 The value 48.65 lies in the class 41-50 and hence the modal class is 41-50 in the grouped data. Note: Compare answer with mode calculated as discrete data in Table 8.12

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 71

Table: Calculation of the mode (X). Class –Interval (Weight) 90 - 99 . . . . . . . . . . . . 100-109 . . . . . . . . . . .. . 110 -119 . . . . . . . . . . . . 120 -129. . . . . . . . . . . .. .. 130 -139. . . . . . . . . . . . .. 140 -149. . . . . . . . . . . .. . 150-159 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160-169 . . . . . . . . . . . .. . 170-179 . . . . . . . . . . . .. . 180-189 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190-199 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200-209. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Z = L + Δ1 / Δ1 Δ2 Χi =

Research Methodology 8

Mode for grouped or interval data

Data represent weights of 265 freshman students at the university of Washington

ƒ 1 1 X 9 30 42 66 47 39 15 11 1 3 140 + 24/43 Χ

M S Sridhar, ISRO

= l+

ƒ2 ---------ƒ 1 + ƒ2

(i)

**47 = 140 + ----------- (10) 47 + 42 = 140 + 47/89 (10) = 140 + 5.3 = 145.3 10 = 145 . 5
**

72

**Univariate Measures: A. Central Tendancy 4. GM & 5. HM
**

4. Geometric Mean

nth Root of the product of the values of n items G.M. = n ∏ xi X n x1 .x2 ….xn Ex. 4 6 9 GM = 3 4 x 6 x 9 = 6

5. Harmonic Mean

Reciprocal of the average of reciprocals of the values of items in series n Σ fi H M = -------------------------- = ------1/x1 + 1/x2 + …fi/ xn Σ fi/xi for frequency distribution Ex. : 4 5 10 3 HM = ----------------- = 60/1 = 5.45

NOTE : 1. Log is used to simplify 2. GM is used in the preparation of indexes (I.e., determining Average Percent of change) and dealing with ratios

1/4 +1/5 + 1/10

Harmonic Mean : 1. Has limited application as it gives largest weight to the smallest item and smallest weight to the largest item 2. Used in cases where time and rate are involved (ex: time and motion study) Note: 1. Median and mode could also be used in qualitative data 2. Median lies between mean & mode 3. For normal distribution mean= median =mode

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 73

**Univariate Measures: B. Dispersion
**

Central tendency measures do not reveal the variability present in the data. To understand the data better, we need to know the spread of the values and quantify the variability of the data. Dispersion is the scatter of the values of items in the series around the true value of average. Dispersion is the extent to which values in a distribution differ from the average of the distribution. 1. Range: The difference between the values of the extreme items of a series, I.e., difference between the smallest and largest observations Example: 4 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 12 13 Range = 13 - 4 = 9

• • Simplest and most crude measure of dispersion As it is not based on all the values, it is greatly/ unduly affected by the two extreme values and fluctuations of sampling. The range may increase with the size of the set of observations though it can decrease Gives an idea of the variability very quickly

M S Sridhar, ISRO 74

•

Research Methodology 8

**Univariate Measures: B. Dispersion
**

2. Mean Deviation : The average of difference of the values of items from some average of the series (ignoring negative sign), I.e. the arithmetic mean of the differences of the values from their average

Note: 1. MD is based on all values and hence cannot be calculated for open-ended distributions. It uses average but ignores signs and hence appears unmethodical. 2. MD is calculated from mean as well as from median for both ungrouped data using direct method and for continuous distribution using assumed mean method and short-cut-method 3. The average used is either the arithmetic mean or median _ _ Σ | xi – x | For grouped data Σ fi | xi – x | δx = ------------δx = ------------n

n

Example:

4 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 12 13 14 – 9.271 + 16-9.271+………+113 – 9.271 24.73 δx = ----------------------------------------------------- = ----------- = 2.25 11 11 Coefficient of mean deviation: Mean deviation divided by the average. It is a relative measure of dispersion and is comparable to similar measure of other series, i.e., Coeff. of MD = δx / x (Ex: 2.25/9.27 = 0.24) . M.D. & its coefficient are used to judge the variability and they are better measure than range

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Research Methodology 8

**Univariate Measures: B. Dispersion
**

3. Standard Deviation: The square root of the average of squares of deviations (based on mean), I.e., the positive square root of the mean of squared deviation from mean Σ (xi – x )2 σ = -----------------√ n Σ fi (xi – x)2 For grouped data σ = -------------√ Σ fi

Example: 4 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 (4-9.27)2 + (6-9.27)2 +……+ (13 –9.27)2 σ = --------------------------------------------------------√ 11 Coefficient of S D is S D divided by mean. Example: 2.64 / 9.27 = 0.28 = 2.64

Variance : Square of S D i.e., VAR = Σ (xi – x)2 / n Example: (2.64)2 = 6.97 Coefficient of variation is Coefficient of SD multiplied by 100 Example : 0.28 x 100 = 28 Note: Coefficient of SD is a relative measure and is often used for comparing with similar measure of other series

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 76

**Univariate Measures: B. Dispersion 3. Standard Deviation
**

SD is very satisfactory and most widely used measure of dispersion

amenable for mathematical manipulation it is independent of origin, but not of scale If SD is small, there is a high probability for getting a value close to the mean and if it is large, the value is father away from the mean does not ignore the algebraic signs and it is less affected by fluctuations of sampling SD is calculated using (i) Actual mean method , (ii) Assumed mean method (iii) Direct method (iv) Step deviation method For frequency of grouped or interval data σ = √ [∑ fi (x i – ⎯x)2 / ∑ f i ] Indirect method uses assumed average formula σ = {√ [(∑ƒd2 / n) - (∑ƒd )2) / n2] } Where, d = Distance of class from the assumed average class n = ∑ fi , i.e., σ =√ fi (xi – A)2 /Σ fi - Σ fi (xi – A)2 /Σ fi For discrete data assumed average formula is σ = √ Σ (xi – A)2 / n - Σ (xi – A) 2 / n

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 77

Calculation of the SD (σ) from a frequency distribution of grouped or interval data of price (in Rs.) of popular science books in Kannada (Table 8.12) using assumed average method is shown below: Frequency Cumulative less Distance of class Price (in (f) (No. of than or equal from the assumed Rs.) (class) books) frequency (cf) average class (d) fd d2 fd2 1 -- 10 2 2 -4 -8 16 32 11 -- 20 8 10 -3 -24 9 72 21 -- 30 15 25 -2 -30 4 60 31 -- 40 13 38 -1 -13 1 13 41 -- 50 4 42 0 0 0 0 51 -- 60 4 46 1 4 1 0 61 -- 70 2 48 2 8 4 8 71 -- 80 1 49 3 3 9 9 81 -- 90 0 50 4 4 16 0 Total 50 -56 194 n = 50 ∑ƒd = - 56 ∑ ƒd2 = 194 i = 10 σ = {√ [(∑ƒd2 / n) - (∑ ƒd )2) / n2] } (i) = {√ [(194 / 50) - (-56)2) / 502] } (10) = {√ [(3.88) - (1.2544)] } (10) = {√ 2.6256 } (10) = {1.6204} (10) = 16.204

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 78

**SD for grouped data (indirect method using assumed average)
**

TABLE: Calculation of the standard deviation (σ) Data represent weights of 265 male freshman students at the university of Washington

Class –Interval (Weight) 90 - 9 ....... 100 -109 . . . . . . . 110 - 119 . . . . . . . 120 – 129 . . . . . . . 130 - 139 . . . . . . . 140 - 149. . . . . . . 150 - 159 . . . . . . . 160 - 169 . . . . . . . 170 - 179 . . . . . . . 180 - 189 . . . . . . . 190 - 199 . . . . . . . 200 - 209. . . . . . . N= 265 Σƒd = 99

Research Methodology 8

ƒ d ƒd 1 -5 -5 1 -4 -4 9 -3 -27 30 -2 -60 42 -1 -42 66 0 0 47 1 47 39 2 78 15 3 45 11 4 44 1 5 5 3 6 18 Σ ƒd2 = 931

ƒde 25 16 81 120 42 0 47 156 135 176 25 108

Σ ƒd2 Σ ƒd σ= ------- - ------√ N N

2

(i)

=

931 99 2 ------ - ….. (10) √ 265 265

**= ( √ 3.5132 - .1396 )(10) = (1.8367) (10) = 18.37 or 18.4 D = (Xi – A) N = Σ fi
**

79

M S Sridhar, ISRO

**SD for grouped data
**

(indirect method using assumed average) …contd.

TABLE : Means, standard deviation, and coefficients of

variation of the age distributions of four groups of mothers who gave birth to one or more children in the city of minneapolis: 1931 to 1935. CLASSIFICATION Resident married………... Non-resident married…… Resident unmarried……... Non-resident unmarried… X 28.2 29.5 23.4 21.7 σ 6.0 6.0 5.8 3.7 CV 21.3 20.3 24.8 17.1

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**Absolute and relative measures of dispersion
**

The absolute measures give the answers in the units in which original values are expressed. They may give misleading ideas about the extent of variation especially when the averages differ significantly The relative measures (usually expressed in percentages) overcome the above drawbacks. Some of them are: i) Coefficient of range = (L – S) / (L + S) (L is largest value and S is smallest value) ii) Coefficient quartile deviation iii) Coefficient of MD iv) Co-efficient of variation Note: Relative measures are free from the units in which the values have been expressed. They can be compared even across different groups having different units of measurement Lorenz curve is a graphical measure of dispersion. It uses the information expressed in a cumulative manner to indicate the degree of variability. It is specially useful in comparing the variability of two or more distributions

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 81

**Univariate Measures: B. Dispersion 4. Quartiles
**

There are some positional measures of non-central location where it is necessary to divide the data into equal parts. They are quartiles, deciles and percentiles (The quartiles & the median divide the array into four equal parts, deciles into ten equal groups, and percentiles into one hundred equal groups) Quartiles : Measures dispersion when median is used as average Lower quartile: Value in the array below which there are one quarter of the observations Upper quartile: Value in the array below which there are three quarters of the observations Interquartile range: Difference between the quartiles Interquartile range can be called a positional measure of variability While range is overly sensitive to the number of observations, the interquartile range can either decrease or increase when further observations are added to the sample Useful as a measure of dispersion to study special collections of data like salaries of employees Example: 4 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 12 13 Lower quartile is 7; Upper quartile is 11; Interquartile range is 4

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 82

Normal Distribution

To understand skewness (asymmetry), testing of hypotheses (Part 9) and interpretation of data (part 10) it is necessary to know about normal distribution. The normal frequency distribution is developed from frequency histogram with large sample size and small cell intervals. The normal curve being a perfect symmetrical curve (symmetrical about µ), the mean, median and the mode of the distribution are one and the same (µ = M = Z). The curve is uni-modal and bell-shaped and the data values concentrate around the mean. The sampling distributions based on a parent normal distributions are manageable analytically. The normal curve is not just one curve but a family of curves which differ only with regard to the values of μ and σ , but have the same characteristics in all other respects. Height is maximum at the mean value and declines as we go in either direction from the mean and tails extend indefinitely on both sides. The first and the third quartiles are equidistant from the mean. The height is given by an equation 1 Y = --------------- e -1/2(X-µ/σ)2 √σ2π

M S Sridhar, ISRO

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83

Normal Distribution

…contd.

It is a special continuous distribution. Great many techniques used in applied statistics are based on this. Many populations encountered in the course of research in many fields seems to have a normal distribution to a good degree of approximation (I.o.w., nearly normal distributions are encountered quite frequently). Sampling distributions based on a parent normal distributions are manageable analytically Definition: The random variable x is said to be normally distributed if density function is given by F(x) OR n (x) = 1 e- (x - μ )2 / 2 σ2 √2Πσ ∞ n (x) dx = 1 and - ∞ < x < ∞ Where ∞⁄ (Since n(x) is given to be a density function, it implied that n(x) dx = 1) When the function is plotted for several values of σ (standard deviation) , a bell shaped curve as shown below can be seen. Changing µ (mean) merely shifts the curves to the right or left without changing their shapes. The function given actually represents a twoparameter family of distributions, the parameters being µ and σ2 (mean and variance)

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 84

Normal Distribution

…contd.

The experimenter musts know, at least approximately, the general form of the distribution function which his data follow. If it is normal, he may use the methods directly; if it is not, he may transform his data so that the transformed observations follow a normal distribution. When experimenter does not know the form of his population distribution, then he must use other more general but usually less powerful methods of analysis called nonparametric methods An important property of normal distribution for researchers is that if x follows normal distribution and the area under the normal curve is taken as 1, then, the probability that x is within 1 Standard deviation of the mean is 68% 2 “ 95% 3 “ 97.7%

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85

Normal Curves

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**Z-score or standardised normal deviation
**

The area under the normal curve bounded by the class interval for any given class represents the relative frequency of that class. The area under the curve lying between any two vertical lines at points A and B along the X-axis represents the probability that the random variable x takes on value in that interval bounded by A and B. By finding the area under the curve between any two points along the X-axis we can find the percentage of data occurring within these two points. The computed value Z is also known as the Z-score or standardised normal deviation. Actually, the value of Z follows a normal probability distribution with a mean of zero and standard deviation of one. This probability distribution is known as the standard normal probability distribution. This allows us to use only one table of areas for all types of normal distributions. The standard table of Z scores gives the areas under the curve between the standardised mean zero and the points to the right of the mean for all points that are at a distance from the mean in multiples of 0.01σ. It should be noted that only the areas are to be subtracted or added. Do not add or subtract the Z scores and then find the area for the resulting value. Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 87

**Z-score or standardised normal deviation …contd.
**

The Standardised normal often used is obtained by assuming mean as zero (µ = 0) and SD as one (σ = 1). Then, x scale µ-3σ µ -2σ µ-σ µ µ+σ µ+2σ µ +3σ z scale -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 z = (xi - µ) / σ TABLE – Normal Distribution Z Prob. Z Prob. 3.0 .999 0.8 .788 2.8 .997 0.6 .726 2.6 .995 0.4 .655 2.4 .992 0.2 .579 2.2 .986 0.0 .500 2.0 .977 -.2 .421 1.8 .964 -.4 .345 1.6 .945 -.6 .274 1.4 .919 -.8 .212 1.2 .885 -1 .159 1.0 .841 -1.2 .115

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO

Z Prob. -1.4 .081 -1.6 .055 -1.8 .036 -2.0 .023 -2.2 .014 -2.4 .008 -2.6 .005 -2.8 .003 -3.0 .001

88

**Univariate Measures: C. Measure of Asymmetry (Skewness)
**

Normal Distribution of items in a series is perfectly symmetrical. Curve drawn from normal distribution which is bell shaped, shows no asymmetry (skewness), i.e., X = M = Z for a normal curve. Asymmetrical distribution which has skewness to the right, i.e., curve distorted on the right is positive skewness (Z> M> X ) and the curve distorted to the left is negative skewness (Z > M> X) (see figure) Skewness: The difference between the mean, median or mode, i.e., Skewness = X – Z OR X – M Coeff. of skewness (J) = X – Z / σ OR 3 ( X – M ) / σ Skewness shows the manner in which the items are clustered around the average; Useful in the study of formation of series and gives idea about the shape of the curve Kurtosis is a measure of flat-topped ness of a curve i.e, humped ness Indicates the nature of distribution of items in the middle of a series(Mesokurtic: Kurtic in the centre, i.e. normal curve, Leptokurtic:More peaked than the normal curve, Platykurtic: More flat than the normal curve)

Example: 4 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 12 13 Skewness = 9.27-11 = -1.73 or 9.27-10 = -0.73 j = -1.73/2.64 = -0.66 or 9-0.73) X 3 / 2.64 = - 0.83 Hence negatively skewed. Check the following for positive skewness 7, 8, 8, 9, 9, 10, 12, 14, 15, 16, 18

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 89

Normal Curve and Skewness

Research Methodology 8

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90

Relationship Between Measures of Variability (M D, S D and Semi-interquartile Range)

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Summary of Examples

Summary of examples: 4 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 12 13 Univariate Measures:

A. Central Tendency 1. Mean 2. Median M 3. Mode Z 4. G.M. 5. H.M 9.27 10 11 7. Variance 6.97 8. Lower quartile 7 9. Upper quartile 11 10. Inter quartile range 4 C. Asymmetry 1. Skewness w.r.t. Mode 1.73 w.r.t. Median 0.73 2. Coefficient of Skewness w.r.t. Mode 0.66 w.r.t. .Median 0.8 Home work: 7, 8, 8, 9, 9, 10, 12, 14, 15, 16, 18

**B. Dispersion 1. Range 9 2. Mean deviation 2.25 3. Coefficient of MD 0.24 4. Standard deviation2.64 5. Coefficient of SD 0.28 6. Coefficient of variation 28
**

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**Bivariate & Multivariate Measures
**

A. Relationship

To find relation of 2 or more variables If related, directly or inversely & degree of relation Is it cause and effect relationship ? If so, degree and direction 1. Association (Attributes) (I) Cross tabulation (ii) Yule’s co-efficient of association (iii) Chi- square test (iv) Co-efficient of mean square contingency 2. Correlation (Quantitative) (I) Spearman’s (Rank) coefficient of correlation (ordinal) (ii) Pearson’s coefficient of correlation

Research Methodology 8

(iii) Cross tabulation and scatter diagram 3. Cause and Effect (Quantitative) (I) Simple (linear) & regression (ii) Multiple (complex correlation & regression (iii) Partial correlation

**B. Other Measures / Techniques 1. Index number
**

2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Time series analysis Anova Anocova Discriminant analysis Factor analysis Cluster analysis Model building

93

M S Sridhar, ISRO

**Common Measures of Relationship
**

Measure 1. Pearson product moment 2. Rank order or Kendall’s tau 3. Correlation ratio, (eta) 4. Intraclass 5. Biserial, Point biserial 6. Phi coefficient 7. Partial Correlation Nature of Variables Two continuous variables; interval or ratio scale Two continuous variables; ordinal scale One variable continuous, other either continuous or discrete One variable continuous, other discrete; interval or ratio scale One variable continuous, other a) Continuous but dichotomised, or b) true dichotomy Two true dichotomises; nominal or ordinal series Three or more continuous variables Comment Relationship linear Relationship nonlinear Purpose: to determine withingroup similarity Index of item discrimination (used in item analysis)

Purpose: to determine relationship between two variables, with effect of the held constant Purpose: to predict one variable from a linear weighted combination of two or more independent variables Purpose; to determine the degree of (say, interrater) agreement 94

8. Multiple correlation

Three or more continuous variables Three or more continuous variables.; ordinal series

9.Kendall’s coefficient of concordance Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO

**Measures / Tests of Association
**

1. Cross Tabulation Useful in finding relationship in nominal data But not a powerful form of measure / test Classify each variable into two or more categories Begin with a two-way table to see whether there is interrelationship between variables Then cross classify the variables in subcategories to look for interaction between them (I) Symmetrical relationship: Two variables vary together, but neither is due to the other (assumed) (ii) Reciprocal relationship: Two variables mutually influence or reinforce each other (iii) Asymmetrical relationship: If one (individual) variable is responsible for change in the other (dependent) variable

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO

Attempt can also be made to see / find the conditional relationships by introducing the third factor and cross-classifying the three variables. Ie. To see whether X affects Y only when Z is held constant Cross tabulate a dependent variable (of importance) to one or more independent variable Show the percentages in the cells of cross tabulation Look for valid (not spurious) explanations Ask whether differences are statistically significant?

95

Example: Given below is the data regarding reference queries received by a library. Is there a significant association between gender of user and type of query ? LR SR Total query query Male users 17 18 35 Female users 3 12 15 Total 20 30 50 Expected frequencies are worked out like E11 = 20X35 / 50 = 14 Expected frequencies are: L S Total M 14 21 35 W 6 9 15 Total 20 30 50 Cells Oij Eij (Oij - Eij) (Oij - Eij )2 / Eij 1,1 17 14 3 9/14 = 0.64 1,2 18 21 -3 9/21 = 0.43 2,1 3 6 -3 9/6 = 1.50 2,2 12 9 3 9/9 = 1.00 df = (C-1) (r-1) = (2-1) (2-1) = 1 Total (∑) χ2 = 3.57 Table value of χ2 for 1 df at 5 % significance is 3.841. Hence association is not significant.

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 96

**2. Association : Yule’s Coefficient of association
**

QAB = (AB) (ab) – (AB) (aB) (AB) (ab) + (AB) (aB) (AB) = Freq. of class AB in which aA and B are present. (Ab) = Freq. of class Ab in which aA is present but B is absent QAB takes values between + 1 and –1 indicates degree of association. IF (AB) > (A) (B) expected Freq. Then AB are positively associated. N IF (AB) < (A) (B) expected Freq. Then A& B are independent. N I.e., QAB = 0 IMMUNITY Ex : PRESENT ABSENT 5 2 7 PRESENT (AB) (Ab) 1 4 5 A. INOCULATION (ab) (ab) 6 12 ABSENT Total 6 5X4 - 2X1 18 QAB = ---------------------- = -------- = 0 . 82 5X4 +2X1 22 (A) (B) 7x6 (AB) = 5 > -------------- = ---------- = 3.5 N 12 The association of A and B in the population may be due to attribute C. In such a case partial association (as against total association) between A and B is determined by Qabc = (ABC) (abC) – (ABC) (aBc) / (ABC) (abC) – (ABC) (aBc) Illusory Association : there is no real association between A & B but both are associated with third attribute. Reasons : (i) A and B are not properly defined (ii) A and B are not properly / correctly recorded

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97

2. Association : Yule’s Coefficient of association

contd.

Note: Larger than 2X2 tables have to be reduced to 2X2 by combining some classes to use this method

4 X 4 Contingency Table

Attribute A A1 B1 B2

Attribute B

A2 (A2B1) (A2B2) (A2B3) (A2B4) (A2)

A3 (A3B1) (A3B2) (A3B3) (A3B4) (A3)

**A4 Total (A4B1) (A4B2) (A4B3) (A4B4) (A4) (B1) (B2) (B3) (B4) N
**

Attribu te

**Reduced to 2x2 Table
**

Attribute Total A a

(A1B1) (A1B2) (A1B3) (A1B4) (A1)

B3 B4 Total

B b

(AB) (A b)

(aB) (a b)

(B) (b)

Total

(A)

(a)

N

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**Yule’s Coefficient of Association
**

Example 1 : The number of books issued on random sample of days in 2005 and 2006 are as follows 2005 36 37 28 97 32 37 39 33 27 114 114 35 2006 34 78 89 89 22 34 44 22 49 33 33 17

contd.

Example 2 : Data on the number of books issued from a library during the course of a week (both actual and expected) Day Actual Expected Mon 39 42.17 Tue 14 42.17 Wed 21 42.17 Thu 47 42.17 Fri 36 42.17 Sat 96 42.17 Total 253 253(.02)

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Yule’s Coefficient of Association

contd.

Example 3 : In 1984 - 5, a library authority spent Rs.550 000 on books and Rs.140 000 on other items. In 1987- 8, the authority spent Rs.810 000 on staff, Rs.330 000 on books and Rs.210 000 on other items. Did the pattern of expenditure change significantly between 1984-5 and 1987-8 ? The observed data can be compiled into a contingency table as shown : Contingency table of observed frequencies Expenditure (‘000s) Year Staff Books Other Total 1984-5 550 230 140 920 1987-8 810 330 210 1350 Total 1360 560 350 2270 A table of expected frequencies can be deduced as shown : Contingency table of expected frequencies Expenditure (‘000s) Year Staff Books Other 1984-5 551.19 226.96 141.85 1987-8 508.81 333.04 208.15 Total 1360 560 350

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO

**Total 920 1350 2270
**

100

**2. Correlation : i. Cross Tabulation, Correlation Table &
**

Scatter Diagram

Monthly totals of books, Journals and Reports issued from a library Month Reps Bks Jls Total Jan 465 3216 713 4394 Feb 513 3215 686 4414 Mar 425 3126 996 4547

Frequency of use of a number of documents of different ages Doc. Age of Frequency No. Doc. of use (years) (times /year) 1 1 40 2 3 18 3 2 30 4 4 21 5 3 26 6 5 10 7 4 13 8 3 35

Research Methodology 8

Correlation table of age and frequency of use of documents Freq. of use Age of doc.(yrs) Total (times / year) 1 2 3 4 5 1-10 1 1 11-20 1 1 2 21-30 1 1 1 3 31-40 1 1 2 Total 1 1 3 2 1 8

M S Sridhar, ISRO 101

**2. Correlation : i. Cross Tabulation, Correlation Table &
**

Scatter Diagram

contd.

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102

Correlation Scatter Diagrams

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103

**ii. Spearman’s Coefficient of (Rank Order) Correlation
**

Only between two variables which are ordinal in nature; helps to decide whether two sets of ranks differ and to the extent they offer 6Σ di2 di = O. b. betn ranks of 6th pair of the two variables n = No.of pairs of observations rs = 1 - -------------n (n2 – 1) Example: Boys and girls were questioned about their reading interest and asked to put various types of novel into their order of performance, with the following results: Type of novel Rank orders di di 2 Boys Girls Animal stories 4 2 2 4 Historical novels 3 3 0 0 Romances 5 1 4 16 War stories 1 5 -4 16 Westerns 2 4 -2 4 Σ di2 40 6 x 40 rs = l - ------------- = 1 - 2 = -1 5 x 24 (that means perfect negative correlation) rs varies from +1 to -1 rs = 0 indicates that two sets of rankings are dissimilar / independent

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 104

ii. Spearman’s Coefficient of (Rank Order) Correlation

contd.

Homework: Given below is the mean scores on a 5 point scale about the nature & type of information required by a group of physicists and another group of mechanical engineers. Find the correlation of their rankings ? (carryout t-test for 5% significance level) Physicists Mech. Engrs. A. State of the art 2.60 1.17 B. Theoretical background 2.98 2.71 C. Experimental results 2.67 2.34 D. Methods, processes & procedures 2.62 2.07 E. Product, material & equipment information 2.45 2.23 F. Computer programs & model building info. 2.00 0.85 G. Standard & patent spec. 0.93 2.15 H. Physical, technical & design data 3.05 2.65 I. S & T news 2.29 2.53 J. General information 1.21 0.92

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**iii. Pearson’s (Product Moment) Coefficient of Correlation (Simple Correlation)
**

∑ (Xi—X) (Yi—Y) r = ---------------------------n --x. y ∑ Xi Yi - n. X . Y r = --------------------------------ASSUMING ZERO AS MEAN

√ ∑ Xi 2 - n X2 √ ∑ Yi2 – n Y2

∑ d xi .dyi n ∑ d xi . ∑ .dyi n WITH ASSUMED AVERAGES Ax and A y ∑ d xi = ∑ (Xi – A x) ∑ d yi = ∑ (Yi – A y) ∑ d xi2 = ∑ (Xi – A x)2 ∑ d yi 2 = ∑ (Yi – A y)2 ∑ d xi . Σ d yi2 = ∑ (Xi – A x) (Yi – A y)

r = --------------------------------------------∑ d x i2 ∑ d xi 2

√

n

n

√

∑ d y i2 ∑ d y i 2

n

n

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**iii. Pearson’s (Product Moment) Coefficient of Correlation (Simple Correlation)
**

Most widely used method and assumes (i) linear relationship (ii) variables are not causally related (iii) a 2 distribution of observations of booth variables

r

=

**∑ (Xi - X) (Yi -Y) -------------------------------------------------∑ ( Xi - X ) 2 . √ ∑ ( Yi2 –Y ) 2 √ Cost (Y) (£) 115 52 75 31 9 12 20 56 24 39. 4 Y = 4.4
**

107

The following table gives the approximate number of abstracts (in thousand) in a selection of volumes of abstracts together with the cost of each volume:

EXAMPLE :

**umber of abstracts (X) (thousands) 36.7 8.5 12.5 3.9 0.5 1.3 4.1 19.4 4.3 91. 2 X = 10.1
**

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO

**iii. Pearson’s Coefficient of Correlation (Simple Correlation) Example
**

contd.

GIVEN BELOW ARE THE AVERAGE NO.OF YEARS OF EXPERIENCE (X) AND THE AVERAGE NO.OF BOOKS BORROWED PER MONTH (Y) FIND THE PRODUCT MOMENT CORRELATION CETWEEN THE TWO X 1 2 4 5 5 ------17 Y 2 4 5 7 8 ------26 XY 2 8 20 35 40 ------105 X2 1 4 16 25 25 ------71 Y2 4 16 25 49 64 -------158 105 – 5 X 3. 4 X 5. 24 r = ---------------------------------------√ 71 – 5 (3.4)2 √ 158 – 5 (5. 2 )2 105 – 88.4 16 . 6 = ----------------- = -------------3.63 X 4.77 17 . 315 = + 0 . 96 X = 17/5 = 3 . 4 ∑ XY = 105 Y = 26/5 = 5.2

Total

∑ X2 = 71

∑ Y2 = 158

NOTE : 1. Most widely used method 2. It assumes (i) linear relationship (ii) normal distribution (iii) variables are causally related. but does not indicate a cause and effect relationship (iv) it is neutral to chance in scale and origin 3. Value of r varies from +1 (perfect positve correlation) to –1 (perfect negative correlation). zero indicates the absence of association / relationship.

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 108

iii.

**Pearson’s Coefficient of Correlation For Grouped Data
**

FOR GROUPED DATA R = ∑ ∑ f ji ((Xi - X ) (Yf – Y) -------------------------------------------∑ fi ((Xi - X 2) ∑ ff (Yj - Y 2)

contd

SHORT CUT APPROACH WITH ASSUMED MEANS ∑ fi dxi . ∑ fi dyi ∑ f j dxi . dyi n n n R = ----------------------------------------------------------------------∑ f j dxi2 ∑ f j dx i2 ∑ fjdyj2 ∑ fjdy j 2 n n √ n n HOMEWORK : following are the average no.of ref. queries asked (x) and the average no.of books inoensed (y) during a study of library users for three months. find the correlation coefficient between the two. carry out a t-test for 5% significance level. X Y t-TEST FOR SIGNIFICANCE 5 4 6 3 n–2 n-2 1 2 t = r ----------t = rs ------------4 6 √ 1 – r2 √ 1 – rs2 2 3 (ANS r = + 0.41) EX: t = (0.96) (5 – 2)/ 1 – (0 . 96)2 = 5. 939 Df = n – 1 = 5 – 1 = 4; Tabulated value of t for 4 d.f. for two tabled test out 0.5% significance level is 4.264 . Hence r is significant of 0.5% significance …contd

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 109

The Correlation Between a Preference for Violent Television and Peer-reted Aggression for 211 Boys Over a 10-Year lag Prefrence for violent TV in the 3rd grade

0.05

Prefrence for violent TV in the 3rd grade

0.01

0.21

-0.05

0.31

**Aggression in the 3rd grade
**

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0.38

M S Sridhar, ISRO

**Aggressio n in the 13th grade
**

110

**3. Cause & Effect Relationships
**

• • • Visual inspection of correlational table and scatter diagram indicates existence and direction of relation Correlation coefficient shows the magnitude as well as direction of relationship Regression analysis shows the cause and effect relationship, ie., independent variable (X) is the cause and dependent variable (Y) is the effect Describes in quantitative terms the underlying (cause & effect) relationship or correlation between two sets of data (two variables) Helps predicting value of dependent variable for a given / known value of independent variable regression equation of Y on X (simple / liner) Y = a + bX Y = Estimated value of Y for a give value of X(a and b are constants) a = Parameter which tells at what value the straight line cuts the Y axis b = Slope or grdient of the regression line, i.e., unit change in X produces a change of b in Y Note : 1. The relationship between X & Y may take any form but here it is assumed to be linear ie., straight line 2. Practical data may fit near or closer to straight line 3. The objective is to fit a regression line with minimum error values (difference between the observed values and expected values) 4. To find the ‘best’ fit the largest square method is used

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 111

i. Regression Analysis (Simple / Liner)

**3. Cause & Effect Relationships : I. Regression analysis
**

TO FIND THE ‘REST’ FIT THE LEAST SQUARE METHOD IS USED Y Y X X X X X X X X X X X Y

contd

X X NO RELATIONSHIP ACTUAL VALUES BEST FIT THE LEAST SQUARE METHOD PROVIDES TWO NORMAL EQNS. TO DETERMINE CONSTANTS a AND b TSS = ∑ (Y – Y ) 2 RSS = ∑ (Y – Y ) 2 THE BASIC EQN IS Y = a + b x +E ESS = ∑ (Y – ŷ ) 2 TSS = RSS + ESS RSS / 1 F = -------------ESS / n –2 EXAMPLE : Given below are the estimated use of a library (Y) for a corresponding expenditure on promotion and user orientation (x). Fit best regression line. Estimate the use (I.e., predict) for an expenditure of Rs.8000 . If the library would like to reach a level of use of 70,000 what should be the expenditure on promotion and user-orientation. …contd. Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 112 ∑ ∑ Y =na+b∑X XY = a ∑ X + b ∑ X2

**3. Cause & Effect Relationships : i. Regression Analysis
**

X ( In thousands of Rs. Ŷ (Estimate) (In ten thousands) XŶ X2

contd..

Y (EXPECTED) ERROR

5 4 20 25 4 . 02 -0 . 02 6 3 18 36 4 . 32 -1 . 32 1 2 2 1 2 . 82 -0 . 82 4 6 24 16 3 . 72 +2 . 28 2 3 6 4 3 . 12 -0 . 12 Tot 18 18 70 82 18 0 ∑X ∑Ŷ ∑XŶ ∑ X2 NOTE: IF r IS CALCULATED ∑X , ∑ Ŷ, ∑X Y & ∑ X2 ARE READILY AVAILABLE 18 = 15a + 18 b ⇒ a = 2.52 ⇒ y = 2.52 + 0.3 x 70 = 18a + 82 b b = 0.3 (i) X = 8 (Rs 80000/-) ⇒ Y = 2.52 + 0.3 x 8 = 4.92 i.e Rs 49200/Homework : (ii) Y = 7 (70,000) ⇒ 7 = 2.52 + 0.3 x = x ⇒ 14.93 i.e Rs 14930/No. of Age REGRESSION COEFFICIENT & COEFFICIENT OF DETERMINATION Books CONSTANT b IS CALLED REGRESSION COEFFIENT X Y REGRESSION OF X ON Y IS X= α + βY RSS 5 23

b β = r2 COEFFICIENT OF DETERMINATION r2 = -------VARIES BTEWEEN ZERO AND + 1 TSS AS r2 TEND CLOSER TO + 1 IND. VAR EXPLAINS THE MOVEMENTS IN T HE DEP.VAR r IS THE CORRELATION COEFFICIENT & VARIES FROM –1 TO +1 Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO

6 8 12 15

35 41 58 75

113

**ii. Multiple Correlations and (Non-Linear or Complex) Regressions
**

INVOLVES TWO OR MORE INDEPENDANT VARIABLES Ŷ = a + b1 x1 + b2 x2 NORMAL EQUATIONS ARE ∑ yi = n a + b1 ∑ x 1i + b1 ∑ x 2i ∑ x1i Yi = a ∑ x 1i + b1 ∑ x1i2 + b2 ∑ x1i x2i ∑ x2i yi = a ∑ x2i + b1 ∑ x1i x2i + b2 ∑ x2i2 PROBLEM OF MULTICOLLINEARITY REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS b1 AND b2 BECOME LESS RELIABLE IF THERE IS A HIGH DECREE OF CORRELATION BETWEEN IND. VAR. X1 AND X2 .THE COLLECTIVE EFFECT OF INO. VAR X1 AND X2 IS GIVEN BY THE COEFFICIENT OF MULTIPLE CORRELATION Ry. X1 x2 = b1 ∑ xi x1i - n y x1 + b2 ∑ yi x2i - n y x2 --------------------------------------------------∑ Yi – n Y

√

b1 ∑ x1i yi + b2 ∑ x2i yi OR ------------------------------

√

Research Methodology 8

**x1i = (x1i – x1) x2i = (x2i – x2) y i = ( yi – y)
**

114

∑ Yi2

M S Sridhar, ISRO

**iii. Partial Correlation
**

(iii) PARTIAL CORRELATION measures, separately, the relationship betn two variables (i.e. dep. and a particular ind. variables) by holding all other variables constant FIRST SIMPLE COEFFICIENTS OF CORRELATIONS BETN EACH PAIR OF VARIABLES HAVE TO BE CALCULATED FOR EXAMPLE, FIRST ORDER COEFFICIENT (OF PARTIAL CORRELATION) MEASURING EFFECT OF X ON Y IS GIVEN BY R2 y. x1x2 – r2 y x2

r yx1. x2 = ------------------------1 - r2 yx1 OR

Research Methodology 8

**ryx1 – ryx2 . rx1x2 ---------------------------√ 1- r2 yx2 √ 1- r2 x1x2
**

M S Sridhar, ISRO 115

**4. Other Measures : A. Index numbers
**

A. Index numbers

Index number is a device to measure the magnitude of (I) Change in the price, quantity or value of an item or more, usually a group of items over time or (ii) Difference between the two similarly measured quantities Example Total number of issues of volumes of non-fiction by a library in a number of years Year 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 Number of issues 8094 9288 8416 9271 8233 i. Fixed Base Index Simple indexes for issues of volumes of non-fiction by a library in a number of years (1960 = 100) Year 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 Index 100 114.75 103.98 114.54 101.72

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**4. Other Measures A. Index numbers contd.
**

ii. Chain Base Index Chain base index for issues of volumes of non-fiction by a library in a number of years Year 1961 1962 1963 1964 Index 114.75 90.61 110.16 88.80 the change or difference is expressed as a ratio or % of a stated base or starting date, period or quantity which is given a value of 100 points Value in given year Fixed base index = --------------------------------- X 100 Value in base year Value in given year Chain base index = ----------------------------------- X 100 Value in previous year An item in the index is given its due weight in accordance with its importance in the whole index Price in given year X Qty in base year Base year weighted index = ---------------------------------------------------------- X 100 Price in base year X Qty in base year Price in given year X Qty in given year Given year weighted index = ------------------------------------------------------X 100 Price in base year x Qty in given year

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 117

**4. Other Measures A. Index numbers
**

YEAR Chain base Fixed base 1 100 100 100

•

contd.

5 115 121.2x115 100 =139.4

2 103 100x103 100 =103

3 107 103x107 100 = 110.2

4 110 110.2x110 100 = 121.2

Index number is a special type of average used to measure the level of a given phenomenon as compared to the level of the same phenomenon at some standard date I.o.w reducing the figure to a common base (eg: converting the series into a series of index numbers) to study the chances in the effect of such factors which are incapable of being measured directly • They are approximate indicators & give only a fair idea of changes. • index numbers prepared for a purpose cannot be used for other purposes or same purpose at other places. Cchances of error also remain in them. Examples: 1. Library use index = 1/100 no. of pages of xerox copies of reading material taken during a year + 2 times no. of documents borrowed through ILL + 5 times no. of visits to library during 3months sample seat occupancy study + mean no. of documents borrowed during the year (both circulation sample and collection sample) 2. Library interaction index = No. of documnts sugested + no. of documents indented + no. of documents reserved + 2times no. of literature search service availed + no of short range ref. Queries placed

M S Sridhar, ISRO 118

Research Methodology 8

**4. Other Measures B. Time series analysis
**

B. Time series analysis

contd.

Time series: Series of successive observations of a phenomenon over a period of time – When individual variable is time in a cause and effect relationship of regression analysis type it is time series analysis – It helps to estimate/ predict the future Components of time series 1. Secular or long term trend (T) 2. Short term oscillations : (i) Cyclical variations(C) (usually more than a year) (ii) Seasonal variations(S) (usually within a year) 3. Irregular or erratic variations (I) Random fluctuations & completely unpredictable like riots, natural calamities, etc.

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**4. Other Measures B. Time series analysis contd.
**

Methods of isolating and measuring trend 1. Free hand method 2. Semi-average method 3. Method of moving average 4. Method of least squares Method of moving averages By smoothening out fluctuations, helps to detect the trend Choosing appropriate period, the method can also help to find out short term variations (ie cyclical & seasonal) as well In addition, use of seasonal index helps to account for seasonal variations Moving average helps to reduce seasonal variations while finding trend METHOD OF LEAST SQUARES

TAKING ‘t’ AS IND.VAR. THE EQN.FOR SECULAR TREND IS Ŷ = a + b t NORMAL EQNS. ARE ∑ Ŷ = n a + b ∑ t ∑ t Ŷ = a ∑ t + b ∑ t2 n = NO OF YEARS ENABLES FORCEASTING FUTURE VALUES OF Y FORM Y = a + b t

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 120

Example: 1. The following are daily issues of junior non-fiction from a library (public library) Day Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Mon 36 46 66 Tue 31 55 76 Wed 25 37 40 Thu 55 80 74 Fri 45 66 90 Sat 90 115 150

**4. Other Measures B. Time series analysis
**

Times series analysis of data of example 1 Week Day Number of issues Moving average

1. M T W T F S M T W T F S M T W T F S 36 31 25 55 45 90 46 55 37 80 66 115 66 76 40 74 90 150

M S Sridhar, ISRO

contd.

Cyclical variation

2.

3.

47.9 50.7 53.7 56.8 60.6 64.4 68.2 71.6 73.6 73.3 74.8 79.8

+7.1 -5.7 +36.3 -10.8 -5.6 -27.4 +11.8 -5.6 +41.4 -7.3 +1.2 -39.8

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121

4. Other Measures B. Time series analysis

contd.

Solution: Trend : Upward, i.e., Increasing daily issues Cyclic variation: Difference between the moving average (expected) and corresponding actual figure of issues are markedly high on Saturday and very low on Wednesday

Home work Daily visitors to a public library Day Week 1 Week 2 Sun 900 800 Mon 400 500 Tue 500 300 Wed 600 300 Thu 300 400 Fri 700 600 Sat 1100 900

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 122

**Monthly statistics of no. of searches executed on a CD-ROM database by PG students is as follows
**

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Month No. of 12 month No. of 12 month No. of 12month searches moving Av searches moving Av searches moving Av JAN 50 60 68.3 50 71.7 FEB 50 50 68.3 40 71.7 MAR 50 60 68.3 70 72.5 APR 60 70 69.2 80 71.7 MAY 70 80 70.0 90 70.8 JUN 80 64.2 90 69.2 100 71.7 JUL 90 65.0 90 68.3 100 AUG 90 65.0 90 67.5 90 SEP 60 65.8 60 68.3 70 OCT 60 66.7 70 69.2 60 NOV 50 67.5 60 70.0 50 DEC 60 68.3 50 70.8 60 Secular trend: Increasing Seasonal variation: Maximum during Mar-May (may be exam ? Seasonal index is more useful in accounting seasonal variations)

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 123

**Quarterly statistics of user visit to a special library
**

Year 1 Quarter No. of % of User Quarterly Visits 1 2000 80 2 3000 120 3 2000 80 4 3000 120 Total 10000 Q Average 2500 Year 2 No. of % of User Quarterly Visits 3000 100 3500 116.7 2000 66.7 3500 116.7 12000 3000 Year 3 No. of % of User Quarterly Visits Average 4000 100 5000 125 3000 75 4000 100 16000 4000 Average % of Index 93.3 120.6 73.9 112.2

If the first quarter of 4th year records 6000 user visits estimate the average quarterly visits for that year Ans. 6000/93.3 X100 = 6431

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**Method of least squares
**

Assumes linear relation and that the past behaviour continues to persist in future Note: For variable ‘t’ midpoint of Y = na+b∑t time is taken as origin. Normal equations Ex: -2, -1, 0, 1, 2, (odd nos.) ∑Y = na + b ∑t -3, -2, -1, 1, 2, 3 (even nos.) ∑tY = a ∑t + b ∑t2 Example: ∑t = 0, ∑Y = 177, ∑tY = 171, ∑t 2 = 280, n=15 ⇒ 177= 15a +b x 0 171 = a x 0 + b x 280 ⇒ a = 11.8 b = 0.61 Hence the trend regression line is Y = 11.8 + 0.61t To find out the t=9 (i.e., say sales for 1986) Y =11.8 + 0.61 x 9 = 17.29

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4. Other Measures B. Time series analysis Measurement of seasonal variations: 1. Ratio to trend method 2. Ratio to moving averages method 3. Link relative method Measurement of cyclic variations: 1. Harmonic analysis 2. Spectrum analysis

contd.

Note: Residuals remaining after elimination of seasonal and trend components be recorded & plotted graphically for visual comparison of residual variations which are attributed to cyclic and irregular / erratic components

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 126

ANOVA

• Testing the difference among different groups of data for homogeneity. • Useful to investigate (I) Any number of factors which are hypothesised or said to influence the dependent variable (ii) The differences amongst various categories within each of these factors which may have a large number of values Example (one way ANOVA) The number of books stored per shelf in a library may be of interest. If a random sample of shelves is selected and the number of books on each shelf are counted, the quantitative data collected can be presented in a frequency table as shown in the figure …contd.

Research Methodology 8 M S Sridhar, ISRO 127

Frequency table showing variation of no. of books stored per shelf according to subject category (example of one way ANOVA) contd.

Books per shelf 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 Geography X1 Number of shelves Law X2 production X3 1 total 1 0 0 0 0 3 0 4 0 4 3 0 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 4 0 1 3 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

3 1 4 3 ! 1 2 1 1

1

1

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**ANOVA (Example of one way ANOVA) contd.
**

Frequency table showing variation of number of books stored per shelf in a random sample of shelves Books per Number of Books per No. of shelves shelf shelves shelf 16 1 30 4 17 0 31 0 18 0 32 1 19 0 33 3 20 0 34 1 21 3 35 0 22 0 36 2 23 4 37 0 24 0 38 0 25 4 39 0 26 3 40 0 27 0 41 0 28 2 42 0 29 1 43 1 One-way ANOVA considers one factor, i.e., No. of books per shelf

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**Steps (example of one way ANOVA)
**

1. 2. 3. 4. OBTAIN MEAN OF EACH SAMPLE I.E. X1, X2, X3

contd.

X1+ X2+ X3 FIND MEAN OF THE SAMPLE MEANS, I.E. X = --------------3 (k) FIND SUM OF SQUARES FOR VARIANCE BETN THE SAMPLES, I.E., SS BETWEEN = n1 (X1 – X)2 + n2 (X2 – X)2 + n3 (X3 – X)2 CALCULATE VARIANCE OR MEAN SQUARE BETN. SAMPLES, SS BETWEEN DF = k-1 I.E., MS BETWEEN = --------------------2 = 3 - 1 =2 SUM OF SQUARES FOR VARIANCE WITHIN SAMPLES SS WITHIN = ∑ (X1i – X1)2 + ∑ (X2i – X2)2 + ∑ (Y3i – X3)2 VARIANCE OF MEAN SQUARE WITHIN SAMPLES SS WITHIN DF = n - k MS WITHIN = -------------------n = n1 + n2 + n3 + ….. n-k

5. 6.

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Frequency table showing variation of number of books stored per shelf according to subject category (example of one way ANOVA) …contd. 7. CHECK SS FOR TOTAL VARIATION = ∑(Xij – X)2 = SS BETWEEN + SS WITHIN AND (n-1) = (k – 1) + (n – k) F RATIO = MS BETWEEN -------------------MS WITHIN

8.

Note: Compare with table value of F. If it is equal or more than table value difference is significant and hence 1. samples could not have come from the same universe or 2. the independent variable has a significant effect on dependant variable. More the value of F ratio more definite and sure about the conclusions

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References

Anderson, Jonathan, et. al. Thesis and assignment writing. New Delhi: Wiley, 1970. 2. Best, Joel. Damned lies and statistics. California: University of California Press, 2001. 3. Best, Joel. More damned lies and statistics; how numbers confuse public issues. Berkeley: University of California Press, 2004 4. Body, Harper W Jr. et.al. Marketing research: text and cases. Delhi: All India Traveler Bookseller, 1985. 5. Booth, Wayne C, et. al. The craft of research. 2 ed. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 2003. 6. Chandran, J S. Statistics fdor business and economics. New Delhi: Vikas, 1998. 7. Chicago guide to preparing electronic manuscripts: For authors and publishers. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1987. 8. Cohen, Louis and Manion, Lawrence. Research methods in education. London: Routledge, 1980. 9. Goode, William J and Hatt, Paul K. Methods on social research. London; Mc Graw Hill, 1981. 10. Gopal, M.H. An introduction to research procedures in social sciences. Bombay: Asia Publishing House, 1970. 11. Koosis, Donald J. Business statistics. New York: John Wiley,1972.

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1.

References

12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22.

…Contd.

Kothari, C.R. Research methodology: methods and techniques. 2 ed., New Delhi: Vishwaprakashan, 1990. Miller, Jane E. The Chicago guide to writing about numbers. Chicago: the University of Chicago Press, 2004. Rodger, Leslie W. Statistics for marketing. London: Mc-Graw Hill, 1984. Salvatoe, Dominick. Theory and problems of statistics and econometrics (Schaum’s outline series). New York: McGraw-Hill, 1982. Spiegel, Murray R. Schauim’s outline of theory and problems of statistics in SI units. Singapore: Mc Graw Hill , 1981. Simpson, I. S. How to interpret statistical data: a guide for librarians and information scientists. London: Library Association, 1990. Slater, Margaret ed. Research method in library and information studies. London: Library Association, 1990. Turabian, Kate L. A manual for writers of term papers, theses, and dissertations. 6 ed. Chicago: The University of Chicago, 1996. Young, Pauline V. Scientific social surveys and research. New Delhi: Prentice-Hall of India Ltd., 1984. Walizer, Michael H and Wienir, Paul L. Research methods and analysis: searching for relationships. New York: Harper & Row, 1978. Williams, Joseph M. Style: towards clarity and grace. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1995.

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Research Methodology 8

**About the Author
**

Dr. M. S. Sridhar is a post graduate in Mathematics and Business Management and a Doctorate in Library and Information Science. He is in the profession for last 36 years. Since 1978, he is heading the Library and Documentation Division of ISRO Satellite Centre, Bangalore. Earlier he has worked in the libraries of National Aeronautical Laboratory (Bangalore), Indian Institute of Management (Bangalore) and University of Mysore. Dr. Sridhar has published 4 books, 81 research articles, 22 conferences papers, written 19 course materials for BLIS and MLIS, made over 25 seminar presentations and contributed 5 chapters to books. E-mail: sridharmirle@yahoo.com, mirlesridhar@gmail.com, sridhar@isac.gov.in ; Phone: 91-80-25084451; Fax: 91-80-25084476.

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