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PP 7767/09/2010(025354)

RHB RESEARCH INSTITUTE SDN. BHD.

马来西亚 RHB Research


技术分析 Institute Sdn Bhd
A member of the
RHB Banking Group
Company No: 233327 -M

每日交投策略
MARKET DATELINE

2010 年 4 月 21 日

市场技术解读
必须破除 10 日移动平均线以重拾上扬动力…

图 1∶富时大马综合指数(FBM KLCI)(日线图) 图 2∶富时大马综合指数(单日线图)

本地股市的交投指引∶

♦ 在隔夜美国股市反弹和区域股市走强的推动下,本地股市昨日在温和的趁低吸购活动下展开一轮稳健的复苏行情。

♦ 投资者重返市场扯购股项,受激励于美国证券交易委员会(SEC)官员在作出控诉高盛集团欺诈的决定方面出现分歧,从而
舒缓了有关其它银行可能会遭到起诉的忧虑。此外,来自花旗集团(Citigroup)的强劲业绩也再度让投资者看俏首季的业
绩表现。

♦ 事实上,投资者也无视于中国所采取调控产业领域的新额外措施及印度中央银行调升主要利率的报道。北京当局表示,在未
经官方批准前,产业发展商将被禁止接受未完成房屋的预付款项。

♦ 当欧洲股市以高调的姿态开高时,以追随其它亚洲股市的涨势,如曼谷综合指数(+5.43%)和恒生指数(+1.02%),市
场复苏动力更进一步加强。

♦ 全日而言,富时大马综合指数(FBM KLCI)急升 9.23 点或 0.70% 至 1,335.90 点。不过,总交投量却从周一的 8 亿 1


千 300 万股,放缓至 7 亿 9 千 700 万股。全场共有 456 只上升股对 230 只下跌股。

技术解读∶

♦ 富时综指昨日划出一根白烛,并恰好收在 10 日移动平均线(即 1,336 点)。

♦ 在前日取得一根“锤头线”(hammer)后,昨日蜡烛形态的形成和随机指标(stochastic oscillators)所发出一个新
“买入”讯号,显示该指数今日可能会进一步复苏。

♦ 可是,它必须完全排除 10 日移动平均线及取得至少 10 亿股的交投以延伸这轮反弹走势。假如它无法符合这些条件,那么


强力卖压动力将会重现。

♦ 换言之,一旦它从 10 日移动平均线回退,它将会恢复下降趋势,以下探 40 日移动平均线(即 1,314 点),位于 1,305 点


的 2.6 点技术缺口,及 1,300 点心理水平。

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请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露( IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES)
2010 年 4 月 21 日

每日交投策略∶

♦ 技术而言,如果富时综指能够冲破 10 日移动平均线(即 1,336 点)的话,那么白烛的形成和转好的动力解读将显示它有望


在今日进一步反弹。

♦ 虽然如此,每日交投量的持续下滑和它在昨日无法全面去除 10 日移动平均线的走势,暗示着该指数在重拾上扬动力方面仍
然面对一些风险。

♦ 只有当该指数能够在 10 日移动平均线以上取得一根确认性白烛和获得超过 10 亿股的交投量时,届时交投动力才会转强。


否则,我们预料空方将会恢复卖压活动。

♦ 从图表看来,富时综指的短期下跌目标维持不变于 40 日移动平均线(即 1,314 点),靠近 1,305 点的 2.6 点技术缺口及


1,300 点水平。

♦ 在上涨方面,一旦破除 10 日移动平均线,这将会激励交投情绪,并有望带动该指数上挑 1,347.61 点的近日高峰,然后才


迈向之前的 1,390 点中期目标前进。

表 1 ∶每日统计 表 2∶主要海外指数及原产品
4月 4月 4月 4月 4月 变动 变动
收盘
股市摘要 14 日 15 日 16 日 19 日 20 日 本地主要指数 (点) (%)
上升股 富时大马综合指数 1,335.90 9.23 0.7
375 293 201 134 456
下跌股 富时大马 100 指数 8,785.56 60.92 0.7
325 406 495 622 230
平盘 富时大马创业板 4,165.09 22.01 0.5
282 298 305 219 293
无交易 各大海外指数
375 363 359 388 384
道琼斯工商指数 11,117.06 25.01 0.2
市场资本 纳斯达克指数 2,500.31 20.20 0.8
总成交量 标准与普尔 500 1,207.17 9.65 0.8
(百万股) 845 1,045 784 813 797 伦敦金融时报指数 5,783.69 55.78 1.0
总成交值 恒生指数 21,623.38 218.21 1.0
(百万令吉) 1,364 1,638 1,207 1,210 1,218 雅加达综合指数 2,891.27 50.84 1.8
东京日经 225 指数 10,900.68 -8.09 -0.1
外汇 首尔综合指数 1,718.03 12.73 0.7
令吉兑美元 3.1990 3.1925 3.1880 3.2150 3.2045 上海综合指数 2,979.53 -0.77 0.0
曼谷综合指数 765.76 39.47 5.4
资料来源∶RHBInvest &彭博社( Bloomberg) 富时新加坡海峡时报指
数 2,981.37 20.44 0.7
台湾加权指数 7,900.42 46.20 0.6
印度 Sensex 指数 17,460.58 59.90 0.3
主要原产品
纽约商品交易所
(NYMEX)原油期货
(每桶/美元) 83.45 2.00 2.5
MDEX 原棕油 – 第 3
个月 (每公吨/令吉) 2,498.00 28.00 1.1
美国利率 目前 最新
10 年 3 月
隔夜联邦基金利率 0-0.25% 无变动
16 日
下个联邦公开市场操作
2010 年 4 月 27 日-28 日
委员会(FOMC)会议

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2010 年 4 月 21 日

图 3∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(日线图) 图 4∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(单日线图)

技术解读∶

♦ 在连续 3 日陷入强大卖压后,吉隆坡期货市场昨日掉头反转,并强力反弹。

♦ 吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)以跳空 5.50 点报开于 1,327.50 点,然后才一路趋升至 1,337.50 点全日最高点。

♦ 全日而言,FKLI 的 4 月份期约暴涨 14.50 点或 1.10% 至 1,336.50 点。

♦ 在图表上,期指纪录了一根利多白烛,意味着它将在今日进一步反弹。

♦ 可是,期指昨日还是无法破除 10 日移动平均线(即 1,337 点)以重拾正面的短期动力。

♦ 结果,期指仍然可能会在即日内于 10 日移动平均线面对显著的阻力。

♦ 较高的阻力位于之前的 1,350.50 点高峰,至于支持水平则落在 40 日移动平均线(即 1,316 点)和 1,300 点重要心理关


卡。

每日交投策略∶

♦ 昨日强劲的收盘显示它今日具备上涨潜能。

♦ 可是,直到它能完全取下 10 日移动平均线为止,近日卖压动力可能恢复的风险还是相当高。有鉴于此,在今日入场建仓之
前,多方应事先采取观望态度。

♦ 今日的交投波幅料将位于 1,330 点至 1,341 点之间。

表 3∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)收盘
FKLI (月份) 变动
合约 开盘 最高 最低 收盘 (点) 结算 成交量 未平仓宗数
10 年 4 月 1327.50 1337.50 1327.00 1336.50 14.50 1336.50 4633 18941
10 年 5 月 1328.00 1337.50 1327.50 1336.50 15.00 1336.50 594 954
10 年 6 月 1327.00 1336.00 1327.00 1335.00 15.00 1335.00 131 500
10 年 9 月 1326.00 1336.00 1326.00 1335.00 15.50 1335.00 37 224

资料来源∶大马交易所( Bursa Malaysia)

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2010 年 4 月 21 日

图 5∶美国道琼斯工商指数(DJIA)(日线图) 图 6∶美国纳斯达克指数(Nasdaq)(日线图)

美国股市的交投指引∶

♦ 能源股带领美国股市周二一连第 2 日扩大复苏动力,主要受激励于原油价格劲扬和数家公司创下强劲业绩。

♦ 能源股,包括了埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil)(+1.1%)和雪佛龙(Chevron)(+0.9%)全都收高。这基于一些欧洲机
场恢复航空服务,从而激励了原油猛涨超过 2%。

♦ 美国轻质原油期货的 5 月份期约猛升 2.0 美元或 2.45% 至每桶 83.45 美元。

♦ 此外,投资者也欢迎来自高盛集团和庄生(Johnson & Johnson)所创下强于预期的季度盈利。可是,前者再挫 2.1%,


这是因为英国有关当局已开始对该公司展开调查。

♦ 闭市后,苹果集团(Apple Inc)在公布超越预测的季度业绩后,其股价便急涨超过 6%。不过,雅虎(Yahoo)则因季度


营业额稍微无法符合预期,而滑落了 1.9%。

技术解读∶

道琼斯工商指数 (Dow Jones Industrial Average 或 DJIA)

♦ 随着趁低吸购活动增加,美国道琼斯工商指数(US DJIA)昨日再涨 25.01 点或 0.23% 至 11,117.06 点。

♦ 在获得小白烛的支撑下,预料它将会在近日内重新挑战近日的 11,154.55 点高峰。

♦ 不过,一如我们所重申,它必须完全突破近日高峰和 11,250 点阻力线,以扭转近期的交投情绪转为乐观。

♦ 否则在短期动力起落参半下,卖压还是有可能会恢复,以压低该指数下探至 21 日移动平均线(即 10,943 点)和 10,850


点关键突破点。

纳斯达克指数 (Nasdaq Composite 或 Nasdaq)

♦ 一如所料,纳斯达克指数(Nasdaq Composite Index)昨日以一根小白烛而劲升 20.20 点或 0.81% 至 2,500.31 点。

♦ 假如它今日能够吸引足够的跟进买盘动力,那么它将会在近日内重新挑战 2,517.82 点的近来高峰。

♦ 不过,为了让它恢复多头动力,它必须突破 2,517.82 点,以发动更多攻势至下一道位于 2,630 点的阻力。当前扶持点仍然


维持在 2,470 点。

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2010 年 4 月 21 日

每日技术焦点∶
图 7∶ 辉百集团( Faber)(日线图) 图 8∶辉百集团(单日线图)

辉百集团 Faber Group (1368)

仍然回避 2.29 令吉重要水平…

♦ 2010 年 2 月,辉百集团成功冲破 1.51 令吉至 1.65 令吉之间的整盘区,并以一个多达 2 仙的技术缺口发动攻势。

♦ 该股急速突围 1.81 令吉至 1.98 令吉之间的阻力水平,然后才在 2010 年 3 月底于 1.98 令吉水平以上进行喘息。

♦ 之后,该股恢复涨势,并突破了 2.29 令吉关键阻力线,从而形成了一个图表突破走势。

♦ 2010 年 4 月中,该股位于靠近 2.60 令吉强大阻力线,并还一度上挑 2.63 令吉全日最高点。

♦ 惟在触及该水平后,该股便掀起了一轮凌厉的跟进卖压动力,并压低它跌破 10 日移动平均线(即 2.45 令吉)以下。最


近,它更丢失了 2.29 令吉关口。

♦ 虽然该股昨日稍微复苏至 2.28 令吉,而短期动力指标也向上转高,以显示该股今日具备更多上涨空间。可惜,它仍回避


2.29 令吉关口。

♦ 我们认为,只要它无法取下这道关口,那么它将无法发动一轮技术反弹。

♦ 因此,如果它在近期内继续维持在 2.29 令吉关口以下,那么我们还是质疑它能否从当前水平发动一轮技术反弹的能力。

♦ 低档支撑水平位于 40 日移动平均线(即 2.176 令吉)和 1.98 令吉关口,至于高档阻力线则落在 10 日移动平均线(即


2.45 令吉)和 2.60 令吉关卡。

技术解读∶

♦ 10 日移动平均线(10-day SMA): RM2.45

♦ 40 日移动平均线(40-day SMA): RM2.176

♦ 支撑水平: IS = RM1.98 S1 = RM1.81 S2 = RM1.65

♦ 阻力水平: IR = RM2.29 R1 = RM2.60

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank Berhad
(previously known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers Berhad). It is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The
opinions and information contained herein are based on generally available data believed to be reliable and are subject to change without notice, and may differ or
be contrary to opinions expressed by other business units within the RHB Group as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. This report is not to be
construed as an offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell the securities covered herein. RHBRI does not warrant the accuracy of anything stated herein in any
manner whatsoever and no reliance upon such statement by anyone shall give rise to any claim whatsoever against RHBRI. RHBRI and/or its associated persons
may from time to time have an interest in the securities mentioned by this report.

This report does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives
of persons who receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. RHBRI recommends that investors independently evaluate
particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. The appropriateness of a particular investment or
strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives. Neither RHBRI, RHB Group nor any of its affiliates, employees or agents accepts
any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this report.

RHBRI and the Connected Persons (the “RHB Group”) are engaged in securities trading, securities brokerage, banking and financing activities as well as providing
investment banking and financial advisory services. In the ordinary course of its trading, brokerage, banking and financing activities, any member of the RHB
Group may at any time hold positions, and may trade or otherwise effect transactions, for its own account or the accounts of customers, in debt or equity
securities or loans of any company that may be involved in this transaction.

“Connected Persons” means any holding company of RHBRI, the subsidiaries and subsidiary undertaking of such a holding company and the respective directors,
officers, employees and agents of each of them. Investors should assume that the “Connected Persons” are seeking or will seek investment banking or other
services from the companies in which the securities have been discussed/covered by RHBRI in this report or in RHBRI’s previous reports.

This report has been prepared by the research personnel of RHBRI. Facts and views presented in this report have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect
information known to, professionals in other business areas of the “Connected Persons,” including investment banking personnel.

The research analysts, economists or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based
upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors and firm revenues.

Technical recommendation framework for stocks and sectors are as follows: -

Technical Recommendation:
Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.
Bargain Buy = Short-term positive but technical signals have yet to trigger a rally. Traders can park and queue for their desired entry level within a small range.
Buy on Weakness = Short- to Medium-term positiveness anticipated, but technical readings are still negative. Traders can pick-up the stock for future rally.
Sell on Strength = Short-term momentum still positive, Traders are advice to lock in profit base on current strength.
Take Profit = Short-term target achieved. Traders are advice to exit before the technical readings turn bearish.
Avoid = Risky situation in the short-term and high volatility expected on the share price. Traders’ best strategy is staying away until it stabilises.

Technical Time Frame:


Immediate-term = short time frame within a contra period.
Short-term = moderate time frame within two to three contra periods. For tracking purposes, we refer to 10 trading days.
Medium-term = medium time frame usually refers to two to three weeks period. For tracking purposes, we refer to 20 trading days.

Technical recommendations are generally short-term in nature and may differ from RHBRI’s equity fundamental view and recommendation on the same company.

RHBRI is a participant of the CMDF-Bursa Research Scheme and will receive compensation for the participation. Additional information on recommended
securities, subject to the duties of confidentiality, will be made available upon request.

This report may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the written permission of RHBRI and RHBRI accepts no liability whatsoever for the
actions of third parties in this respect.

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